What Bitcoin Phase are we

[348Judah]

What Bitcoin Phase are we currently at?

There are four stages or cycles in cryptocurrency market and we need to dig deep into them one after the other to know where we are currently, they are as follows:

The Accumulation Circle
The Markup Circle
The Distribution Circle
The Markdown Circle
https://www.ledger.com/academy/crypto-market-cycles-how-to-read-them-why-they-matter

I heard of an article that talked about being on the fourth bitcoin market cycle which is the bear market that renders the market to go dip the more while some have pointed out that we are already going out of the dip with bullrun in anticipation, the chart below actually give more narrative on the preparedness for the markup phase for bitcoin bullrun to begin gradually.

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1688601671188819968?t=4KOaK4Gniahiws_TMYDrGg&s=19


Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

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[Poker Player]

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

The latter. The most normal scenario is that between now and halving we will have an upside, without beating the $69K ATH of this cycle, and post-halving we will have a proper bull run, beating that ATH and I believe passing $100K clearly after several attempts. From there I dare say no more.

This is based on what previous Bitcoin cycles have been like, which need not repeat exactly, and this cycle is a sample of that, but they are a guide for us

[Hamza2424]

Hmm, I have this analysis in the Wo community not sure if it was by the LFC_Bitcoin or Biodom. So do you think we are in the markup circle trap or markdown circle trap clearly besides the market value BTC is not much overvalued. Also, I was reading the Plan S2F model speculation still the journey is in the flow of $98k in NOV and around 120 to 150k in December well for the first target I'm more hopeful but for the secondary valuation, it can take a longer period of time. The accumulation Peroid of BTC is still open in my view until we hit the 35K.

After 35k there will be weak game for BTC to be overvalued, in the accumulation. Rather than that I think there can be inconsistency in the cyclical behavior on a shorter period of time.

[_act_]

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

This is one of the best time to accumulate. But bitcoin price may drop, do not sell. I can remember that the last halving was in May 2020, but bitcoin dropped from $10500 to $3800 in March 2020. After some months after halving, bitcoin all to all-time-high at the time. I mean it increased to over $19600 which was 2017 all-time-high.

If you want to accumulate, you can be accumulating bitcoin now.

[FatFork]

Well, as we all already know, the Bitcoin market can be quite unpredictable. So, it is always wise to approach this with a healthy dose of caution. While some sources are indicating that we might be transitioning from the bear market (Markdown Circle) to a potential bull run (Markup Circle), this does not mean that past performances will be repeated in each new cycle. Each cycle is unique, and can lead to different outcomes. Personally, I'm currently in an accumulation cycle, and I'm continuing to buy as much as my finances allow. I still see no reason not to believe that we will experience the next bull run and reach ATH again, just as we've done many times before.

[KiaKia]

I'd prefer to call it disbelief phase, where we will keep going side ways for some months into 2024, even if we flip bullish we can't go over 35k to 40k this year, and it's healthy for the market but I don't like receiving myself, just because it looks like 2015 movement again doesn't mean anything unexpected can't happen, but I am prepared for whatever comes my way, I don't bother myself too much about what will happen before the halving.

I am also wondering why the ETF approval is said to be active or approved in 6 months time, it make me start wondering that these people know what they are doing, in 6 months time the halving would have been over and ETF approval will cause a price surge for Bitcoin, it looks planned out to me, I may be wrong.

[hd49728]

Whatever phase the current cycle is, we are not surr what will be the next movement of market.

Assume the big bull run will start in 2024 after a halving but we can not say the market already ends its bear phase or when it will end the bear phase. We never know when and how it will end the bear phase.

We can not know will the 2021-2023 bear market phase will end in 2023 or expand to early months of 2024 and the market will have a superb deep crash as it had in March 2020.

Knowing about past market cycles is cool but it is not enough as you can not time in the current market by past market cycles.

[mendace]

The cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, is known for its volatility and cyclicality.  However, predicting with certainty which stage we are in can be a difficult task.  The phases described in your reference - accumulation, markup, distribution and decline - are one way to understand the historical trends and price movements of cryptocurrencies, but there is no precise formula to accurately determine the current phase.The event of the Bitcoin halving is known to impact its price, but there is no guarantee that an automatic price increase will occur after each halving.

[m2017]

Whatever phase the current cycle is, we are not surr what will be the next movement of market.

Assume the big bull run will start in 2024 after a halving but we can not say the market already ends its bear phase or when it will end the bear phase. We never know when and how it will end the bear phase.

We can not know will the 2021-2023 bear market phase will end in 2023 or expand to early months of 2024 and the market will have a superb deep crash as it had in March 2020.

Knowing about past market cycles is cool but it is not enough as you can not time in the current market by past market cycles.

It would be too easy and simple if information about past cycles could know for sure about upcoming market trends. So any fool could become rich. There are too many factors that can affect the length of the cycles, the bitcoin phases. Any negative (or positive) news will appear in the media and this will already affect the general mood of bitcoin investors, who may start buying or selling BTC in bulk, which will cause some changes in the current phase. It will create a pause, shorten or lengthen the phase for an indefinite period. Therefore, it would be naive to rely on past charts, but this should not be neglected either, because it allows you to have an idea of ​​a certain pattern in the bitcoin progress.

In general, there is a theory that btc-cycles are slightly lengthened each time. In principle, this is possible, because the price of bitcoin is growing, capitalization and the user base are also growing, which makes its own adjustments to seemingly familiar patterns.

[passwordnow]

One thing, we're near the bull run and the indicator is the halving next year. That's why if we're still given a chance to accumulate on this phase then do it for yourself. The next accumulation could be harder because the price of BTC by that time is going to be more expensive than ever.
Do not let your emotions you forget what you have to do when you can do the necessary because you're aware of the cycle and it is what's gonna happen soon.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I personally think that Bitcoin should be well above $50,000 by now, but then, there are a lot of circumstances holding the price of Bitcoin, i cant say exactly and for sure which phase we are right now, but what i do know and i am sure of is that, Bitcoin is getting prepared for the next halving and at the same time, preparing for a bull run, but then, like I've mentioned before, a lot of things are keeping Bitcoin from taking off at the moment, example is the hot topic right which is the Bitcoin ETF,  the several rejection of the Bitcoin ETF has indeed caused regulatory doubts in the minds of many, most especially the institutional investors, and also some notable influential figures in the society.

So for me personally, i have no doubt that if the ETF is approval, that alone is enough to send the price of Bitcoin to the range of $100,000 and above, this is also considering the fact that Bitcoin halving is also around the corner.

[Faisal2202]

The Accumulation Circle
The Markup Circle
The Distribution Circle
The Markdown Circle

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

I can not agree more with you on this. Because Accumulation is when the price is good and this phase was already occurred in December 2022 when the price of BTC was around $16k and after that the price of BTC started to grow and now currently we are in markup circle, and this circle or cycle will run for the time until BTC will not reach to its ATH. The thing is BTC might go go beyond the ATH (expected one not the last year ATH) until people will start to sell there BTC or i should say to start Distribution circle. Means when people will start to book there profits.

And that time could start even now before the halving but people are smart enough to not start it now, because they know if they will hold the price will go up as the supply will decrease over demand and this will keep happening until a new ATH will be made and people will then start the Distribution circle and after that Markdown circle will start. And we are currently in Markup circle. So we all have to do is hold and if we could not able to accumulate BTC in the Accumulation Circle then we might get the opportunity in this phase too. So be prepared for the next halving event because after that the markup Circle will be on hype and people will make millions of dollars depending on the money they invested.

[348Judah]

I can not agree more with you on this. Because Accumulation is when the price is good and this phase was already occurred in December 2022 when the price of BTC was around $16k and after that the price of BTC started to grow and now currently we are in markup circle, and this circle or cycle will run for the time until BTC will not reach to its ATH.

When we are talking on bitcoin accoumulation period or phase, it simply means the time one can conveniently set in to buy bitcoin and hold, consider this period as we are still in the dip even though there's preparedness for the market to pump more, if you could remember, we are coming down from bitcoin all time high of $68,000 till we are this low.

Which means if you still have someone interested to set in for the market at this period you'd better encourage them to buy abd hold because we may not do that dip again down to $16,000 anymore, by this time next year we would have been somewhere close to $100,000 or more, isn't this an advantage for anyone to enter, buy and hold with $29,400 as entry point.

The thing is BTC might go go beyond the ATH (expected one not the last year ATH) until people will start to sell there BTC or i should say to start Distribution circle. Means when people will start to book there profits.

What about the half reward of bitcoin mined the miners are to receive and release ibto the market, that alone has something to do in pulling the market demands and supply, just take this as an observation that bitcoin will rises after halving and there will be bullrun.

[pinggoki]

The cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, is known for its volatility and cyclicality.  However, predicting with certainty which stage we are in can be a difficult task. 

Predicting with certainty isn't difficult, just choose the years that you want to compare, say you want 3 year period for bitcoin then collect the graph for those periods and lay them side by side, if you were to do that, you can probably predict what might happen in the coming years based on the patterns that you've made. It's not difficult, you just need to add some effort and it's going to take some time. At the end of the day, it's just prediction and knowing that anyone can do that.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

One thing, we're near the bull run and the indicator is the halving next year. That's why if we're still given a chance to accumulate on this phase then do it for yourself. The next accumulation could be harder because the price of BTC by that time is going to be more expensive than ever.
Do not let your emotions you forget what you have to do when you can do the necessary because you're aware of the cycle and it is what's gonna happen soon.

The bull run is still very far though, I mean it is next year so lots of time for us. So for me, we could still be in the period of accumulation.

The price is not that big, although it almost went x2 from the bottom price last year. But we are still very far from our last all time high. Meaning we are still in the middle grounds. And with that, we can interpret it as still in the accumulation phase. So instead of waiting for the bull run, then just continue to stack sats, DCA is your friend. 

[ImThour]

I would simply wait for Bitcoin Halving to occur before declaring it in a bull run or something like that. Any percent of correction can still happen on the Bitcoin chart, so don't be biased to be honest.
But for long term, this is a good buying spot. These prices will never come again in the future. I bet. SO if you have been waiting for a good time to buy, this is it.

Also, stay away from shitcoins. Cheers.

[pooya87]

The Accumulation Circle
The Markup Circle
The Distribution Circle
The Markdown Circle

These are theories not rules. In other words the market doesn't have to follow these stages strictly.

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

In my opinion we are in uncharted waters because if you truly analyze the previous bull runs and the way they were growing, you can see these cycles had a repeating pattern which was broken in the last cycle since price could not go higher than $70k even though it had to go up to around $400k and have a "bubble" there then a bear market.
This is why what we have from that point, is a new trend that sometimes resembles the previous cycles and unless we can see a solid pattern again we can't start talking about repetition.

We also have the terrible situation with the global economy being in recession+inflation phase that makes bull runs harder.

[Z-tight]

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

We can't judge accurately because we do not know what is going to happen for sure, but we can only judge using the previous cycles, and even though history tends to repeat itself, we cannot be sure it will happen exactly this time.

I don't like to predict the market, i just do what is reasonable and that is to accumulate and also use BTC as much as i can, dca makes accumulation better, so i use it. Waiting for the halving is a very interesting feeling, but an advice to people is not to buy with all of their money, they can use dca to buy, and if you buy with funds you won't be needing, it will give you the opportunity to wait for the bull run, even if it takes sometime to come.

[ajiz138]

That indicator will not be far away for the next phase.
What about the previous cycle? I see the same and this is for the next bullrun, after the halving or yet to appear there will not be a significant enough increase for me it feels in the range of $50K after that maybe the end of the year to show a rally for the market.

Considering the upcoming event of bitcoin halving next year, could we judge that this journey is about to begin with the market going dip or the current situation is to incidence the begining of the rise of bitcoin for a bullrun.

It could be that the market starts to go down but it won't be as low as what I think it's all going sideways right now and considering after the halving it's going to have a different plan.
Right now only accumulation is important, as long as there is a decline and no increase I should be able to make an early entry.

[tbct_mt2]

I would simply wait for Bitcoin Halving to occur before declaring it in a bull run or something like that. Any percent of correction can still happen on the Bitcoin chart, so don't be biased to be honest.
But for long term, this is a good buying spot. These prices will never come again in the future. I bet. SO if you have been waiting for a good time to buy, this is it.

We all can not time in the market and know where is bottom and when bottom will be found and confirmed. Bottom can be touched a few times before a bull run starts so I believe we will have two or three times to buy around bottom. If we miss all chances around bottom, it's our bad response against the market by being to hesitating to make buy orders.

Also, stay away from shitcoins. Cheers.

Buying shitcoins when Bitcoin has yet ended its bear market is terrible. Because shitcoins are more vulnerable to death in bear market and if you buy them in bear market, you accept bigger risk.

It does not mean in a bull market, it is safer to buy shitcoins as they basically are shitcoins with no values and their prices are only temporarily and can disappear anytime by rug pulls, hacks, massive minting by developers or hackers.