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Title: Can you confirm my "DUMP" analysis? Post by: algoBoi on September 18, 2023, 09:15:06 AM I know it may sounds ambitious but some point it looks like works.
Let's get started. Step 1. Check 1 day ARB chart first. ~%15 down starting 10th Sept. https://i.ibb.co/V208pyb/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-11-36-47.png (https://ibb.co/HnLQpvR) Step 2. Check 1 hour ARB chart. Starting to drop at 04:00 (UTC) https://i.ibb.co/NFN8nJ9/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-11-43-13.png (https://ibb.co/GdMK38W) Step 3. Let's get more detailed. On 5 mins chart, check ARB volume. https://i.ibb.co/kg2st2z/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-11-46-01.png (https://ibb.co/C5K3fK4) As you can see before dumping, total volume of last 10 bars 3.3 M ARB on 5 mins chart. 04:20 starting dump and 14 M ARB volume. Step 4. Setting up rules. If current bars volume is 5 times higher than last 10 bars avg volume AND -%0.5 candle change on 5 mins chart. Thus, it's considered as dump and sell. In order to calculate and follow this rule 7/24, i'm using an algo trade platform called Traderlands. (It's free) This is how it is done https://i.ibb.co/qm9ty6K/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-12-01-34.png (https://ibb.co/QYn2b0L) Step 5. Check rule and exit point According to our rule 331k x 5 = 1.6 M ARB volume should be to sell it. So on 1 min chart; Starting 04:20, in 3 mins volume goes up ~8 M ARB. https://i.ibb.co/jwMvJ5r/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-12-03-54.png (https://ibb.co/s1wvWPV) Estimated exit price: 0.8790 Let's consider we buy on 0.8881 on 2th Sept and waiting price up. This dump would be disaster unless we had these tools and idea :) So we exit on 0.8790 and our loss ~%1. It's also perfect timing for possible SHORT position i guess. I set an algo for this matter on Traderlands and started forward testing. Let's see what will be happen. If you have any other idea or criticism, i'm open to discuss. Title: Re: Can you confirm my "DUMP" analysis? Post by: Beerwizzard on September 18, 2023, 10:05:24 AM Step 4. Setting up rules. If current bars volume is 5 times higher than last 10 bars avg volume AND -%0.5 candle change on 5 mins chart. Thus, it's considered as dump and sell. In order to calculate and follow this rule 7/24, i'm using an algo trade platform called Traderlands. (It's free) Generally, you did a good job. Rapidly increasing volumes are indicating that whales are joining the game and some serious price change is about to come. The numbers for the rules would be different for different coins. Coins with lower MC would have a higher volume proportions. I would say that during the flat market volume analysis should work pretty well. Title: Re: Can you confirm my "DUMP" analysis? Post by: algoBoi on September 18, 2023, 11:34:52 AM Step 4. Setting up rules. If current bars volume is 5 times higher than last 10 bars avg volume AND -%0.5 candle change on 5 mins chart. Thus, it's considered as dump and sell. In order to calculate and follow this rule 7/24, i'm using an algo trade platform called Traderlands. (It's free) Generally, you did a good job. Rapidly increasing volumes are indicating that whales are joining the game and some serious price change is about to come. The numbers for the rules would be different for different coins. Coins with lower MC would have a higher volume proportions. I would say that during the flat market volume analysis should work pretty well. Thanks! And you are absolutely right about different size of MC for vary coins. I'm trying to make it dynamic based on specific formula on pine script. So i can connect it as a Tradingview indicator to Traderlands platform and see it how it works. Title: Re: Can you confirm my "DUMP" analysis? Post by: algoBoi on September 18, 2023, 01:51:04 PM Step 4. Setting up rules. If current bars volume is 5 times higher than last 10 bars avg volume AND -%0.5 candle change on 5 mins chart. Thus, it's considered as dump and sell. In order to calculate and follow this rule 7/24, i'm using an algo trade platform called Traderlands. (It's free) Generally, you did a good job. Rapidly increasing volumes are indicating that whales are joining the game and some serious price change is about to come. The numbers for the rules would be different for different coins. Coins with lower MC would have a higher volume proportions. I would say that during the flat market volume analysis should work pretty well. Another idea came up. If we set these rules on BTC for specific setup and when these rules occurs, SHORT one of the low volume pair. We can select 50 pairs and filter them with low volume on Traderlands platform. I guess this is makes sense. Title: Re: Can you confirm my "DUMP" analysis? Post by: Beerwizzard on September 18, 2023, 05:00:15 PM Step 4. Setting up rules. If current bars volume is 5 times higher than last 10 bars avg volume AND -%0.5 candle change on 5 mins chart. Thus, it's considered as dump and sell. In order to calculate and follow this rule 7/24, i'm using an algo trade platform called Traderlands. (It's free) Generally, you did a good job. Rapidly increasing volumes are indicating that whales are joining the game and some serious price change is about to come. The numbers for the rules would be different for different coins. Coins with lower MC would have a higher volume proportions. I would say that during the flat market volume analysis should work pretty well. Another idea came up. If we set these rules on BTC for specific setup and when these rules occurs, SHORT one of the low volume pair. We can select 50 pairs and filter them with low volume on Traderlands platform. I guess this is makes sense. It fully depends on quality of these rules :) Sounds like it is worth checking such strategy but I would recommend picking mid volume pairs since the momentum price of the ones with the low volume is exposed to market makers which may get easy money if they bump the price on such moment. Title: Re: Can you confirm my "DUMP" analysis? Post by: jeraldskie11 on September 21, 2023, 05:23:53 PM Step 4. Setting up rules. If current bars volume is 5 times higher than last 10 bars avg volume AND -%0.5 candle change on 5 mins chart. Thus, it's considered as dump and sell. In order to calculate and follow this rule 7/24, i'm using an algo trade platform called Traderlands. (It's free) Generally, you did a good job. Rapidly increasing volumes are indicating that whales are joining the game and some serious price change is about to come. The numbers for the rules would be different for different coins. Coins with lower MC would have a higher volume proportions. I would say that during the flat market volume analysis should work pretty well. If you're in crypto, 5mins time frame with an ultra high volume doesn't mean that whales are selling or buying, simply because their marketcap are too low unlike stocks and forex who have a huge marketcap. Personally, 4h time frame and above, with an ultra high volume is considered that whales are the cause. |
