I know it may sounds ambitious but some point it looks like works.
Let's get started.
Step 1.
Check 1 day ARB chart first. ~%15 down starting 10th Sept.
https://i.ibb.co/V208pyb/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-11-36-47.pngStep 2.
Check 1 hour ARB chart. Starting to drop at 04:00 (UTC)
https://i.ibb.co/NFN8nJ9/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-11-43-13.pngStep 3.
Let's get more detailed. On 5 mins chart, check ARB volume.
https://i.ibb.co/kg2st2z/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-11-46-01.pngAs you can see before dumping, total volume of last 10 bars 3.3 M ARB on 5 mins chart. 04:20 starting dump and 14 M ARB volume.
Step 4.
Setting up rules.
If current bars volume is 5 times higher than last 10 bars avg volume AND -%0.5 candle change on 5 mins chart. Thus, it's considered as dump and sell.
In order to calculate and follow this rule 7/24, i'm using an algo trade platform called Traderlands. (It's free)
This is how it is done
https://i.ibb.co/qm9ty6K/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-12-01-34.pngStep 5.
Check rule and exit point
According to our rule 331k x 5 = 1.6 M ARB volume should be to sell it. So on 1 min chart;
Starting 04:20, in 3 mins volume goes up ~8 M ARB.
https://i.ibb.co/jwMvJ5r/Screenshot-2023-09-18-at-12-03-54.pngEstimated exit price: 0.8790
Let's consider we buy on 0.8881 on 2th Sept and waiting price up. This dump would be disaster unless we had these tools and idea
So we exit on 0.8790 and our loss ~%1.
It's also perfect timing for possible SHORT position i guess.
I set an algo for this matter on Traderlands and started forward testing. Let's see what will be happen.
If you have any other idea or criticism, i'm open to discuss.