Bitcoin Forum

The Bitcoin Spiral: Halving cycle is interesting. It summarizes past cycles, the current one and future ones as well. With multiplier x10 between two consecutive circles, it is easily to see Bitcoin growth through some cycles but with slower growth rate for future halving cycles, I think we will have to wait some more halvings to see Bitcoin price reaches $1M.


Cycle repeat (https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-repeat/) from Charts.bitbo.io has a price projection for Bitcoin next bull run after 2024 halving. I know projection is not correct but let's see how the projection is. According to it, if the historic cycle repeats itself, a next all time high can be around $180,000 to $200,000 in late of 2025, about one year and a half after 2024 April halving.

The progress of 2024 halving is about 85% done. The latest block is 809,891 and a block where halving happens is 840,000. Counting down only 30,509 more blocks till the 2024 halving.

The most awaited event right now. If you really deep dive into the history of past Bitcoin block halvings, you will see that it clearly shows that the price of Bitcoin will be somehow above the lows months before the block halvings. As months before the Bitcoin block halvings is the best time to accumulate Bitcoin, just my 2 cents.

I am also taking the opportunity now to accumulate. The only fear I have is that the halving may not be as good as expected, as everyone expects. In fact, this cycle was better than all the forecasts that were made, as all the serious ones were giving a maximum above $100,000.


History will not keep repeating itself forever. From what I said before I would expect a more moderate high, around $150,000 or thereabouts.

Expectations indicate this, but to be sure, let us say that if the price of Bitcoin does not decline, the price of $180,000 to $200,000 will be real. What is more logical is that we no longer believe that we will reach a million dollars within the next 10 years, exactly as was said in 2021.
But the charts also tell us that we may be in the range of $30,000 to $50,000 by the date of the Halving cycle, with the possibility of a correction occurring in the coming months.

What hides me most is the accelerating pace of hacking. If we continue at the same pace, most of the platforms will be hacked and go bankrupt in the coming months, which will lead to the cycle being dumped before $100,000 as what happen after FTX.

The list is very long https://hacked.slowmist.io/

Fucking hell! It's the first time I've seen a prediction based on future hacks, but the way we're going doesn't look very promising and it seems to make sense that if hacks continue to occur, news of them will negatively affect price.


I don't quite see this 'blockchain hackers' thing, I think the name is misleading, as the blockchain has not been hacked, but rather the bitcoins stored in cold wallets.

Too much people are betting on the fact that the same will happen historically.

So I'm betting:

1. Halving comes
2. We dump
3. We sideways chop for a good amount of time
4. People realizing that the same won't happen, hence dump
5. We pump once weak hands leave

I'm not putting heavy money on this, but I'm going to have some dry powder ready.

Same cycle with different moments in time. In my opinion, point 2 and point 3 have the most potential to occur after point 1 is formed from this cycle pattern and Bitcoin prices may not appear pleasant. Yes. we have to be prepared, but at least it will be a benchmark and a moment that many people have been waiting for.

Bitcoin will pump parabolic after weak hands are out but they don't leave voluntarily but they will be killed with forced liquidations by their greed positions with Leverage, Margin and Futures.

I don't hope anyone will be killed by liquidations and lose their money, have their life harder but it's what happen on the market. I hope or don't hope, it can not change what's going on the market and basic psychology of the market cycles (https://freewallet.org/blog/the-psychology-of-market-cycles/)

https://fifthperson.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Psychology-of-Market-Cycles.jpg (https://fifthperson.com/psychology-market-cycles/)

The feeling is usually strong for me whenever I think about the next bitcoin halving and there's no other right time to start accumulating ahead of the halving and the bull run other than from this time as the count down is really drawing closer with each dawning day.

I have a hunch that the prospect in the figures projected by many bitcoin experts about the bull run just after it's halving may not be achieved as a lot of expects but I have no fear that the next ATH will be something we all be grateful for when compared to the previous.

You're right there. That's why, in times like this, there are many communities that take advantage of the events so that they can save as much as they can; in fact, they don't want to be left behind in the double halving of Bitcoin. Here they are again.

And with the coming Bitcoin halving or bull, as far as I can see, there are many who are already prepared for this matter. But honestly speaking, I envy people who are at least middle-class because, for sure, people like them who believe in Bitcoin will get richer in the future because of their holdings. I just hope that my accumulated bitcoin will also help a lot in the future or in the coming halving until you finish.

The halving is definitely on the horizon and in everyones radar now...along with a
Blackrock Spot ETF approval!

We have seen before a market rise within the 6 months before the halving followed by
a slump after the event itself.  It has taken the best part of a year after that for maximum
growth to be achieved.

Now - throw into the mix an approved Blackrock Spot ETF - what does that do to the cycle?

I think there could be supply v's demand issues...

I'm on my phone so I can't check the charts currently, but #2 and #3 frequently happens if I remember correctly. It's the #3 part (and a longer chop than usual, probably) that will I think make step #4(hence #5 after)occur.

The price stability we are witnessing in Bitcoin is also because majority of investors are mature enough to wait for the halving coming up next year. We saw few dips in price due to some news but price is recovering back towards 30k. Previous halving show that Bitcoin price goes up after few weeks of halving not immediately. Price of Bitcoin is still low and good for accumulation.  

Don’t really get what you mean by Sideways chop in your point 3.

On the count of point 4. I would have imagined it’s  possibility but, I don’t think there would be any significant dump. Maybe a few 3k-4k dump as, the market will seek to offload the one time profit seeking investors. Clearly, I don’t see those guys to be of any benefit to the crypto ecosystem but, they still do there bit in pushing price towards an expected quota and bring the idea of the possibility of a price range.

I don’t what to be in the what if but which ever condition the halving plays out, a pump is eminent.

Be sure not to blow it in the direction of the wind else, the breeze will blow it right back at your face, lol!

The informations are well explanatory on the chart as shown by OP from his contents, bitcoin halving is the most awaited event everyone anticipated to see come to pass just because of the bullrun the follows it, we have a record of the past events with bitcoin market price and the halving even on several occasions and now that we are on the fourth again, it's another opportunity for every investors to get possible opportunities well they are well positioned to experience this coming next year, the key to participate in them is to invest and hodl.

The world is a completely different place than at the last having. The world and markets are going to crap. I am going to keep on like the halving doesn't mean anything. I'll see it when I see but if the ETF guys add enough market cap we can add some stability but not too much as to squash volatility.

Those ETF guys are collectively smarter than us and if not still have the money. This may be the last horaah of the big 2 or 3x jumps. The market slumps they buy. Blackrock could write a check for the whole crypto space.

Ever since COVID pandemic with its recession, the predictability of the market has significantly diminished because the so called "cycles" trend was effectively broken. If you look at the chart, in 2019 we are seeing the repetition of the same 4-year cycle trend but with the pandemic starting it is stopped and then it crashes before it can turn into a full scale rally. Half of 2020 is bear market which is completely against the "projection".
Long story short, in a normal cycle price should have been half way to 6 digits already. But instead we are still stuck in $20k-$30k levels.

This is why I think the rallies will happen somewhat similar to before but the size of them are unpredictable so we can't know whether it is going to get to $200k as you mentioned in OP.

P.S. The first chart is a very interesting way of representing the cycles, thanks for sharing.

It's why there are theories that Blackrock is manipulating the market and it's all because of the futures market where the traders in that market are pulling the price down. And SEC is also not approving any Spot ETF for it will just go from the lowest price to shoot up to the 6 digits.

But then anyway, once the volume gets too low after halving, there is nowhere else to go but up but I couldn't expect too much as soon as the RSI says it's overbought, thats just it. It may dump a bit and retrace back but it won't exceed far from the ATH.

You know those boring days where bitcoin (and even ethereum) barely moves? Like sometimes not even $100 in either direction? Yeap, they're mostly called sideways chop or "crab market" in non-professional trading/investing communities.

Pandemic changed a lot of things globally from health care, politics, economics and Bitcoin market is affected too. I am said that Bitcoin failed to break $100,000 in the last bull run even I admitted that I know Bitcoin bull runs will be smaller with time because it will harder to make big bull runs like previous cycles (before 2020 - 2021 cycle) when its marketcap becomes bigger.

I like it too and it is a very creative and insightful way to represent Bitcoin cycle.

After halving, market will be warmed up and become hotter so trading volume must increase. I fail to understand why you expected lower trading volume after halving, could you explain your thinking please.

I think second point will be true because as people are accepting more and more bitcoin and just think that due to halving their money will be valued more but they don't remember that how unpredictable the market of crypto is.

Does anyone have firm knowledge that halving will move Bitcoin's price to 100k$ or 150k$? No one. so how we can predict that halving will definitely arises positive impact?

There is prediction that halving move price higher but these predictions are based on past experience but about future we cannot say anything may be price rise in 2025 but halving will be in 2024 so be prepare for each situations whether the situation are against you or in favor of you.

When looking and comparing the 4-year cycles of the past it is also important to note that 2 major events caused the difference in last cycle compared to the others. Covid hit, causing a massive sudden decline, but I think that event could be removed as a one time thing. Then you had the limiting of the bubble due to FTX manipulation. Strike those two events out and I think we see a six figure BTC on the last cycle, which could enable some shocking gains in the next two years by comparison.

Many things can happen within four years and we can not know about them as we don't have any time traveling machine. One market cycle can not make big difference and if an investor has not too good entry like buying when market is about the top, panic sell in bear market, loss is unavoidable. Fortunately, because Bitcoin has good adoption, growth and its monetary supply is good and can be considered as pseudo deflationary, if we can hold our coins through like 2 or 3 market cycles, big differences will be seen.

I don't have enough time through 2 or 3 market cycles but I believe you as one of very early Bitcointalk adopters and forum donators, already witnessed pass cycles and would you mind to share your thinking on it, please.

Let's not forget one thing when we talk/dream about BTC at $1 mln: how bad could the inflation be at that point? Maybe by the time we reach that value, which is probably at least 15 years minimum, the purchasing power will be the same as today's $3-400k.

For me the minimum value after the next halving, so let's say between 2024 and 2025, is $120k, anything less than that would be a major disappointment. And the best case scenario is around $170-180k, I don't think we can reach $200k just like last time we didn't reach $100k.

Actually there are no significant connection bitcoin halving at the price of bitcoin. It's just that people are very optimistic as we have witnessed bitcoin have been breaking new ATH right after the bitcoin halving, so people is under the impression of bitcoin bull season is being initiated by every time bitcoin halving occurs every 4 years.
So, to answer your question, there is definitely nobody has the certain of firm knowledge whether or not bitcoin hits a 6 digit figure next year. Who knows these hype will gradually die down if people stopped believing that bitcoin halving could bring bitcoin closer to their specific highest target.
As of now, we get positive feedback from the upcoming halving so it's most definitely it will develop a positive outcome as well. Everybody is still bullish towards bitcoin halving.

       Maybe the return of Bitcoin halving can just repeat the current cycle of its previous halving; the only difference will be the amount of how they raise it, in my opinion. And it also depends on the lined-up applications to the ETF to see if any are approved.

      There will probably be information, so we know that the SEC always does; they always delay their tactics, and then, in the end, they will just reject it. This has always been the style of the US SEC, to be honest; I just noticed that too.

Do you think this confidence is just a self-fulfilling prophecy? Since people think the price will go up since it has been cut in half, they buy more, which makes the price go up.

No one really knows for sure, though, as you said. Yes, everyone is optimistic right now, which is making things better. You're right that half and a price increase dont always go together. Thats a good point of view that we should all keep in mind. Itsd great to hear what you have to say and to keep talking about this. Besides, the market can change just as quickly as the weather.

That's true, when covid hit, there's this printing of money left and right and that's contributed to the demand of Bitcoin where people have bought Bitcoin from that printed money.

I remember the same scenario likely on 2017 when there's Tether that has printed as well. So, I think that interconnects. But hopefully this time, there will be no more printing scenario and it's just all based on the market's growth and of course, the typical impact of halving.

I'm hopeful to see that 6 digits soon and moreover the 7 digits in next more halvings.

I also have the idea that printing money and covid had something to do with the growth in demand for bitcoin at that time, and yes we're not seeing anything like that in this cycle, but I'm pretty sure what's driving demand for bitcoin is potentially the current bitcoin ETF that will bringing bitcoin further without the crazy money printing events of the previous cycle, and that is quite an indicator of bitcoin moving forward in the halving period which ends at a new peak in 2025. This scenario will play out like mass adoption from conventional financial investors.

Don't be too hasty, we don't have a lot of bitcoin for that, it would be a shame if you only have a little bitcoin today, don't have a rush mentality, you will quickly get bored with market fluctuations.

Statistical data suggests that the halving event may have a correlation with Bitcoin's price; it's not a fact but a possibility, because that's what happened during previous halvings. Everyone seems pretty optimistic about it, and honestly, I'm trying to remain as modest as possible in case these expectations aren't met, which, in my opinion, won't be. The world seems to be in a terrible state for anything to thrive, not Bitcoin in particular. I hope I'm proven wrong, but I also believe, like @Husires suggested, that the price will be at approximately $40,000 during the halving cycle and possibly, several months later, it'll move towards $60,000, without me being optimistic about breaking a new ATH.

The dump part will not happen, thatsj ust wishful thinking, we are already pretty low right now. Its going to be like it has always been and already proved that its going to be sort of like that by this time. It has been exactly the same leading up to halving so far and why would that change afterwards suddenly? If everything that happened since the last halving to this day has been same as it has been before, that is indication that the future will also be the same. We do not know how high it will go, but we know that its going to be pretty high and break over the ATH price so we should be buying right now. I am doing it, and I every smart investor would do the same.

Interesting circle to me; it seems we have a bull run after every halving. It would take a couple of months as well, according to past history. So we might not see bull runs and ATH during the halving. The circle clearly shows ATH was after halving, not during the halving event. This is a fact we have to keep in mind. Also,  there is a dump after every ATH. Otherwise, we can't actually mark ATH. However, I am not expecting much difference on the chart due to halving. There would be just a FOMO and pump for a short time. We may see a real bull after the halving event is over.

Yeah, that's like the replacement of that factor back then. And with these ETFs that might go into approval soon, they'll be driving the demand too. But I just hope that these won't just be like hype or trends that comes once and then stops.

It's not a problem whether you don't have a lot of Bitcoin. What matters is you have your own holdings and you'll be happy for the others that has got a lot when that happens.

But before that happens, DCA and accumulate.

The one thing I like about the Bitcoin market is that the nature at which no one is actually certain of how the price and movement of Bitcoin will be makes it just unique. The halving is close by and alot of speculation are been thrown from different angles here and there but no one is actually certain of wether the market will thrive or dump we all are just being speculative due to previous settings amd my only question is what's happens now if the market decides to defile all the odds of previous patterns.

we are no longer going to see halving cycles ATH of $32-$1.2k (37.5x)
we are no longer going to see halving cycles ATHof $1.2k-$20k (16.6x)
we are no longer going to see halving cycles ATH of $20k-$70k (3.5x)

things are going to slow down

that said if you take the fundamental min max speculation window based on world mining costs top and bottom extremes are
2021 had a $10k-$75k window (possible speculation limits)
2022 had a $15k-$95k window (possible speculation limits)
2023 has a $20k-$140k window (possible speculation limits)

we could reach a upper limit window of possible speculation of $200k by 2024 meaning the spot price "COULD" reach that.. but.. no way will we get $1m in the next cycle

I understand your point; however, his characteristic isn't that unique, is it? I mean, in the world in which we live, things can abruptly change; the same thing also applies to finances. The stock market also doesn't move in a predetermined direction, nor do we know if it'll thrive or not. Definitely, there are things that may provoke some movement to some degree, but nothing is certain. Although the stock market doesn't have halvings, the two are completely different in practice, even though they share many similarities in theory, which changes the whole scene. Despite the previous halvings, there's no guarantee of how Bitcoin will perform before, during, and after the halving cycle.

If halving's going to bring prices above low from months before it happened there isn't an indication it's going to lead to bull run. Halving's are turbulent as much as they're gold mines for profits. It's a dangerous time for newbies to buy.

News about halving's makes normal ppl go in to frenzies. I don't feel confident bitcoin's going to reach $200k price by 2024. It's speculation we'll have to wait.

The information about halving is expanded therefore people are more engrossed in it and according to my opinion if news grows that bitcoin halving is just a rumor then may be negative effect will arises in bitcoin holders as the price will be more effected by fake or real both type of news.

People are holding bitcoin for four years because more they give time to bitcoin more they will understand the state of crypto market and they can easily get superiority as most of the situations are repeatedly occurring in specific month.

I don't know when the halving will occurs and also no body knows it but there is a fact that once you heard by the individuals that Bull run will initiate then its your emotions that will force you to take profit during such Bull run.

Although there is no definite relationship between Halving Bitcoin and Bitcoin price moving itself, I agree on it, but when I see the responsibility of the people who know Bitcoin that it is made a bullish catalyst which indicates that bitcoin will be more rare, indirectly also people are indicated that when when when Bitcoin Halving occurs an increase in Bitcoin, and yes that makes most people optimistic and back Bitcoin.

I think there is someone who is intelligent in moving this stigma in the world bitcoiners, so many believe that Bitcoin Halving will give an encouragement to increase the price of Biitcoin.

What I find inconsistent with these projections when compared to the previous cycles is that the 2017 ATH was roughly a 20x of the last one (1k), but the next one wasn't even 4x.
This means that the ATH to ATH growth was reduced by 80% cycle to cycle. What if the next one is again reduced by 80% and we only get something like 1x the ATH, or even less, so less than $140k?
If this continues, at some point we'll only be reaching a new ATH without any large growth, so one year it will be 140k and in 4 years 180k, in 4 years 200k...

Because basically when a Bitcoin marketcap is bigger, it is harder to have 20x growth for a single cycle like previous cycles. It is exactly what happened with Bitcoin in 2020 - 2021 bull run and its future bull runs including 2024 and 2025 bull run. We have take into account the unprecedented accidents like Covid-19 and global financial recession too.

So from price like under $30,000 to $140,000, assumes it is a new all time high for 2024 - 2025 bull run, it is not good enough? I know it sounds not good if we consider it from 2021 all time high circa $70,000 but if we consider it from today price, it's very good profit.

$200,000 in 2028 or 2029, it is about 7x from today price, is it good? Absolutely good, I don't expect more profit from 8 years of holding.

Of course, this is normal, anytime with Bitcoin block halving or without, it is always a risk to buy Bitcoin because no one knows what's next move of Bitcoin, just be responsible and expect for unexpected. These speculation I said is because of the past Bitcoin block halvings, I just use the history to come up with this.

What makes a $1 million price for Bitcoin, in my view, isn't just the halving event alone, but rather the age of Bitcoin and its increasingly widespread adoption. Halving does indeed show its direct effects, and what accumulates are the policies of companies and countries regarding the existence of Bitcoin.

As for its price range, it seems a bit high, with the $100k - $1 million interval appearing quite ambitious. Especially considering that at the current level of $30k, Bitcoin seems poised to reach the $100k++ mark much sooner. I'm not a fortune teller, but let's observe how quickly Bitcoin crosses that $100k threshold.

Honestly, I can't wait to see Bitcoin potentially bring a million thrills to the crypto space.

Perhaps not only halving affects the bitcoin price, but also other economic and political events, as well as the stock market. For example, every 4 years there is a presidential election in the USA and this event always affects the stock market. Of course halving creates bitcoin deflation, but think about the fact that 90% of all coins have been mined.

Bitcoin is a currency in which nobody should depend on its price, the market of bitcoin is very rational and also rotational, which from my observation in cryptocurrency and especially in bitcoin the price do rotate and nobody can predict accurately what the price will determine , we can be expecting an increase in bitcoin market next year and one or two things that might pump up a negative information concerning bitcoin and the price go down, a small information can lead bitcoin to long time bearish market, what I basically know about bitcoin is that Bitcoin have it's on way of propagation, so we should not expect that bitcoin will be increasing every day or every time or be thinking that since the price of bitcoin has fall that means the price can't accelerate any longer, one thing with bitcoin price is that it have to do with the determinate of demands and supply and basically information,  a good information triggers acceleration of bitcoin price.

You're saying it like it's indisputably reaching it one day. I can't confidently say bitcoin's reaching $1M any time soon. So many cryptocurrencies failed to overtake Bitcoin so it's true it's staying at top but it doesn't mean it's going to be worth $1M. It's pure speculation when halving & FOMO drive's imaginations.

Reaching the point where that should reach to 100k+ is not all that weird and should be considered a bit better. I get that we could reach to a point where it could make a profit that could help out for the long term. The best thing about this cycle is that we are going to end up with a greater return if we can hold it for a long time and should be the most important thing. I know that not many people could see it that way but that doesn't mean that we could make a big change regarding this.

I hope that we could hold long term, because there are situations in life when you just have to cash out to pay something and unfortunately it has been common thing for me for the past year or so, and I hope that all the ones I am gathering now could be amounts that I could hold until the ATH is peaked again.

You can manage your finances wisely and not damage your long-term investment plans. Good planning before investment determines everything – meaning they should no longer change investment plans if it is not because of a very urgent need. The investment budget should be taken from the unused budget - it will be safe despite fluctuations over time.

I hope they really understand how to manage finances well if they are already in this industry. Each of them must have a reserve budget, regardless of whether it is living expenses, children's education budget, or unexpected expenses. This is important to separate from the investment budget if they do not want to break their investment plans.

The market is actually slowly rising and this is a great opportunity for us to stay calm and grab more because the big pump is about to happen. This is the start of the cycle and we know the hype starts before the halving and this has been the cycle, many predicted this to happen and I’m also bullish for this one. Let’s be more positive about the up trend, hoping that we will end this year at the best price.

Many of the new entrants are pessimistic about the current conditions and even leave the market with losses, even though this is the beginning of a bull run that will arrive and give a surprise that has never been made before.

This halving cycle might be a bit different as the price will also be higher and Bitcoin will set a new ATH in history.
Many are also optimistic about the bitcoin market and that a big boom will happen.

Everyone is speculating that Bitcoin will reach a big boom in the coming year.

Are you ready for the bull run?
Have you bought as much Bitcoin as you can?
We just need to wait for it without panicking.

Without a doubt it can be difficult to sell your coins now knowing the bull market is getting closer, but as long as you did so because you really had no other choice then there is no point in being sorry about it, after all that is why we have savings and investments, to help us deal with all the negative stuff that it may happen to us, however, if you can, try to get that bitcoin back as soon as possible, even if you have to cut some of your expenses and increase your savings this way.

So far it seems like the Halving event does its job as we can see how the market price of Bitcoin skyrockets every time there is a Bitcoin halving event since it is going to affect the supply of Bitcoin. Right now the next Bitcoin halving event is going to happen estimated around 2024 which I think could be one of the catalysts that are going to trigger that Bullrun, as we can see the in Bitcoin halving timeline we can already see how the market price reaction to the Bitcoin halving event, most of the time after or around 1 year after the Bitcoin halving event we are going to see the Bullrun, so in my speculation the Bullrun might happen somewhere around 2024-2025, right now there was really no big movement in the market, but I think we are going to see a good momentum considering its ber months, possibly we are going to reach 40k$ before the end of the year, because there are going to be a hype every time the Bitcoin halving event is near, as far as I remember in the last event there was a small pump before the event then the market is going to realize that it is still not ready to skyrocket so it is going to drop down again.

According to predictions, the halving will take place in March or April 2024, and if history repeats itself and as you mentioned. Bull season will come a year after the halving, which means we are still a long way from the bull season. So, there will not be any positive movements in the market anytime soon, both before and after the halving.

The impact of the halving is undeniable, however, many people mistakenly believe that the bull season will come immediately when the halving takes place and they are looking forward to more positive developments as the halving approaches. I predict bitcoin will have corrections before and after the halving and will not skyrocket immediately. That could be the last time the market shakes off its last weak hands before entering a new bull season. I predict many people will be discouraged and disappointed when the halving happens because then the price will not increase immediately.

Based on previous halvings data its very much clear that price wont go up immediate up after halving rather it will take a year or two for price to go up. This halving is different in a sense that people are now very much aware of halving and that's the main reason we see a stable Bitcoin price for last few months. Even if price don't up immediately after halving it wont go down as many investors are eyeing halving event this time.

Interesting you think we approach 1/2 ing at 40k and drop or at 28 k and drop.

If we hit the 1/2 ing at 40k and drop to 30k that would be a repeat of an old pattern .

If we hit the 1/2 ing at 28k and drop to 18k that would be kind of new pattern maybe a good shot to make bank if you grab cheap then.

This is if it doesn't decline. All Bitcoin halvings that seem to be purely declining are happenings, and we all know this. Do you think this time it will be approved in ETF? When this happens, it will be the first time in history that Bitcoin's price value really kicks into the market.

And it is also likely that many altcoins in the market will not be able to keep up with Bitcoin, and only possibly the top altcoins will be able to somehow keep up with Bitcoin's rise during the bull run.

As bitcoin heads towards the halving season in no short time, people's expectations are on the rise, that the bitcoin assets they have been accumulating and hodling at the low price will give them an expected profit.

At this current low price of bitcoin, I ​wouldn't want to miss the chance to accumulate as much bitcoin as I can before then(halving). Because there is cause to believe that, the bitcoin price might get above the price of $35k- $50k. Given many bitcoin investors who invested in bitcoin at a low price of $26k below some profits. Their profits will keep being on the rise as they continue to accumulate and wait patiently for the bull run to take effect(months after halving season).

Buying at halving isn't less of a gamble. Always invest believing a gamble's a gamble it doesn't matter if we're thinking it's less chance of some thing going wrong. We shouldn't look at previous halving cycles thinking we know what's going to happen the next time it happens.

When halving occurs, the price does not need to decrease much, but if it does not increase immediately or a few months later, I also believe that many people will get discouraged and give up. Because people are pinning high hopes on the halving and if it doesn't go as they expected, they will be disappointed and dump bitcoin. That's the scenario I think will happen because not too many people know that the bull season will only take place about a year after the halving. So that's why I'm not too impatient or in a hurry to wait for the halving event because it won't change the market situation anytime soon. Everything takes time and so does bull season.

The big thing we are waiting for will soon happen, the halving day which is designed every 4 years makes many people panic and immediately buy because transaction volume will continue to increase, the level of mining difficulty continues to increase making many people leave mining because it is difficult to make a profit.

Add this to OP. 8)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5PSmnhW8AA32hm?format=jpg&name=large

I'm not posting that to say that Satoshi had the foresight to have implemented the halving to happen together with the boom and bust cycles that were caused by the Federal Reserve's policies. BUT if he truly did it because he had an idea WHEN the Federal Reserve would actually turn the money printer on and off, then the hypothesis behind the halving has to be one of the most brilliant "theories" put into practice.

That is what those that are only interested in making money do not know, they have heard that after the halving the price of bitcoin will go up, but this is not something that happens immediately, it takes some time before we see the price to go up and it is even likely the price could go down, as those people that were expecting immediate profits get disappointed with their lack of results and then they decide to sell their coins, a decision which will cost them the opportunity to make the money they were looking for.

2024 halving is around the corner and Bitcoin moves sharply to its 2021 all time high.

Let's see the Bitcoin route to 2024 halving compares to its past halvings.
One year ago, in 2023, the market sentiment was not bullish like now and in 2022, it was even much worse. Super negative sentiment in 2022 with some sagas like Terra, FTX.

If you belonged to people who have interest in Bitcoin investment but hesitated to spend money for loading bitcoin in 2022 and 2023, you missed very good prices for accumulation.

We've seen bitcoin move over $62k today so it's a good measure the market's in good health. I can't say movement's because of halving speculation because I don't know what's pushing the market. We didn't see bitcoin so close to near ATH before so we shouldn't be startled if it's going to exceed $70k.

You have clearly stated what more than Fact.
This contribution is invaluable.
Most people will ignore this or try to understand this fact but its reality, this is what happens in the market.

After four years, the Bitcoin halving cycle begins, during which the price of Bitcoin is able to reach its highest level. This halving could touch at least $100k, many investors have commented. Halving bitcoin price 2024 has been researched by many experienced people, according to their research it will definitely be successful.

We are currently here at the time you mentioned in the picture. Bitcoin halving is only 52 days away. Therefore, if the price of Bitcoin increases one more step, it will touch the maximum level. So just wait for a few days and the opportunity to invest will arise. All the investors who are without investment must use this opportunity.

I think this coming halving will be a major shift from the others because it might follow a completely different path like we are already seeing. In the past, we never saw price of Bitcoin get so close to the previous all time high and even threatening to surpass it before the halving. What is this telling us? This simply mean that something different is happening now and the market participants have been adjusted. Previously we do see moves such as we have now after the halving but now that we already entered bull run before the halving, what we expect to see after the halving is not yet clear but it is certain that it will be positive for Bitcoin. Should we have all time high before the halving, then price will be go far higher after the halving.

The massive ETF billions pumping into the market will have it already bought in. Retail investors will mean nothing.

Halving will mean basically nothing as it should, it's an emotional response to a problem that doesn't really exist. The remaining to be mined is such a small number.

The US stock market is on a bubble and money will be finding a safe place to hide like BTC, Gold and silver and such..

Your quite right mate the participants has adjusted gone are those days where retail investors mean much, right now we have the big players like ETFS buying almost 10% of the available supply steadily, the demand of bitcoin is well on the rise and some exchanges liquidity can't well handel it, IMO I think bitcoin would get more than expensive for the average man to buy if it reaches 200k and even using all the strategies can't help you if you don't have a source of income, that's why it's not the best idea to sell your holdings this bull run in the name of profits, bitcoin is leaving the era of investment asset or commodity to a real store of value as fait continues to depriciate many are rushing to store value in bitcoin.

Now it has reached $66K. Of course, it is clear that the market is improving, perhaps because it is approaching the halving period or also the impact of the influence of ETFs, which cannot be ignored.
I think the previous ATH will be passed this month too, but it is not a movement to achieve a renewable ATH, it still takes longer if you look at the cycle which is estimated. At 2025. But we have to accept this increase to be able to stimulate again, which will also encourage altcoins to move better.

It's $67k now so it's nearly beaten it's ATH. I didn't expect bitcoin's price to be pushed this hard in March 24 so I'm curious about how much it'll be when the bulls end.

No one can really tell, but as you have said, bulls is pushing it hard and I think their goals is to break the previous all time high. Now what happens if we break it? That is the big question and usually it's either we will have a big decline, a huge correction, or the price continue it's parabolic rise as we approach the halving.

So far though, market is very positive, could be due to FOMO of the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF approval as this institutions and their clients wanted more of BTC and so they keep on buying even if the price is going up. A lot of parameters to look at, but for now, it's the block halving, that catalyst for a bull run is coming so everyone doesn't want to missed that boat.

Whales have been patient for a long time so it's possible they're making moves trying to manipulate the market. When investors drive markets with FOMO at the driving seat we don't know where it's going to stop.

What comes after this in the crypto markets? It's hard to say for sure.  Maybe we'll see a big rebound soon.  Or perhaps prices keep rising.  The excitement around a Bitcoin ETF seems to be driving increased interest from institutional investors and their deep pockets.  and with the next halving getting closer, there's a sense of urgency to grab some Bitcoin before scarcity potentially sends prices skyward. and  Where things go next is anyones guess.

It's amazing that Bitcoin is always difficult to predict, when it quickly increased until it was almost close to the last ATH [$68K], now it has dropped drastically back to $62K, in just a few hours, the same way it works when it increases.
Seeing a situation like this certainly makes the market confused, everything can change in the analysis could I thought today the ATH would be exceeded, but instead it fell.
We will look back in a few days on bitcoin's movements.

ETF's didn't affect the market when they were licenced but they're driving the price high. When halving happens I'll hope FOMO doesn't affect the price when ppl dump. It's the first time I'm deciding whether it's better to hodl or buy other crypto in low prices. Bitcoin's scarcity won't be permanent it's going to be available when you're in need.