Bitcoin Halving cycle

[MFahad]

Too much people are betting on the fact that the same will happen historically.

So I'm betting:

1. Halving comes
2. We dump
3. We sideways chop for a good amount of time
4. People realizing that the same won't happen, hence dump
5. We pump once weak hands leave

I'm not putting heavy money on this, but I'm going to have some dry powder ready.

I think second point will be true because as people are accepting more and more bitcoin and just think that due to halving their money will be valued more but they don't remember that how unpredictable the market of crypto is.

Does anyone have firm knowledge that halving will move Bitcoin's price to 100k$ or 150k$? No one. so how we can predict that halving will definitely arises positive impact?

There is prediction that halving move price higher but these predictions are based on past experience but about future we cannot say anything may be price rise in 2025 but halving will be in 2024 so be prepare for each situations whether the situation are against you or in favor of you.

[OgNasty]

When looking and comparing the 4-year cycles of the past it is also important to note that 2 major events caused the difference in last cycle compared to the others. Covid hit, causing a massive sudden decline, but I think that event could be removed as a one time thing. Then you had the limiting of the bubble due to FTX manipulation. Strike those two events out and I think we see a six figure BTC on the last cycle, which could enable some shocking gains in the next two years by comparison.

[BlackBoss_]

When looking and comparing the 4-year cycles of the past it is also important to note that 2 major events caused the difference in last cycle compared to the others. Covid hit, causing a massive sudden decline, but I think that event could be removed as a one time thing. Then you had the limiting of the bubble due to FTX manipulation. Strike those two events out and I think we see a six figure BTC on the last cycle, which could enable some shocking gains in the next two years by comparison.

Many things can happen within four years and we can not know about them as we don't have any time traveling machine. One market cycle can not make big difference and if an investor has not too good entry like buying when market is about the top, panic sell in bear market, loss is unavoidable. Fortunately, because Bitcoin has good adoption, growth and its monetary supply is good and can be considered as pseudo deflationary, if we can hold our coins through like 2 or 3 market cycles, big differences will be seen.

I don't have enough time through 2 or 3 market cycles but I believe you as one of very early Bitcointalk adopters and forum donators, already witnessed pass cycles and would you mind to share your thinking on it, please.

[Ale88]

The Bitcoin Spiral: Halving cycle is interesting. It summarizes past cycles, the current one and future ones as well. With multiplier x10 between two consecutive circles, it is easily to see Bitcoin growth through some cycles but with slower growth rate for future halving cycles, I think we will have to wait some more halvings to see Bitcoin price reaches $1M.

Let's not forget one thing when we talk/dream about BTC at $1 mln: how bad could the inflation be at that point? Maybe by the time we reach that value, which is probably at least 15 years minimum, the purchasing power will be the same as today's $3-400k.

from Charts.bitbo.io has a price projection for Bitcoin next bull run after 2024 halving. I know projection is not correct but let's see how the projection is. According to it, if the historic cycle repeats itself, a next all time high can be around $180,000 to $200,000 in late of 2025, about one year and a half after 2024 April halving.

For me the minimum value after the next halving, so let's say between 2024 and 2025, is $120k, anything less than that would be a major disappointment. And the best case scenario is around $170-180k, I don't think we can reach $200k just like last time we didn't reach $100k.

[Oasisman]

Too much people are betting on the fact that the same will happen historically.

So I'm betting:

1. Halving comes
2. We dump
3. We sideways chop for a good amount of time
4. People realizing that the same won't happen, hence dump
5. We pump once weak hands leave

I'm not putting heavy money on this, but I'm going to have some dry powder ready.

Does anyone have firm knowledge that halving will move Bitcoin's price to 100k$ or 150k$? No one. so how we can predict that halving will definitely arises positive impact?

Actually there are no significant connection bitcoin halving at the price of bitcoin. It's just that people are very optimistic as we have witnessed bitcoin have been breaking new ATH right after the bitcoin halving, so people is under the impression of bitcoin bull season is being initiated by every time bitcoin halving occurs every 4 years.
So, to answer your question, there is definitely nobody has the certain of firm knowledge whether or not bitcoin hits a 6 digit figure next year. Who knows these hype will gradually die down if people stopped believing that bitcoin halving could bring bitcoin closer to their specific highest target.
As of now, we get positive feedback from the upcoming halving so it's most definitely it will develop a positive outcome as well. Everybody is still bullish towards bitcoin halving.

[Ben Barubal]

       Maybe the return of Bitcoin halving can just repeat the current cycle of its previous halving; the only difference will be the amount of how they raise it, in my opinion. And it also depends on the lined-up applications to the ETF to see if any are approved.

      There will probably be information, so we know that the SEC always does; they always delay their tactics, and then, in the end, they will just reject it. This has always been the style of the US SEC, to be honest; I just noticed that too.

[Blitzboy]

Too much people are betting on the fact that the same will happen historically.

So I'm betting:

1. Halving comes
2. We dump
3. We sideways chop for a good amount of time
4. People realizing that the same won't happen, hence dump
5. We pump once weak hands leave

I'm not putting heavy money on this, but I'm going to have some dry powder ready.

Does anyone have firm knowledge that halving will move Bitcoin's price to 100k$ or 150k$? No one. so how we can predict that halving will definitely arises positive impact?

Actually there are no significant connection bitcoin halving at the price of bitcoin. It's just that people are very optimistic as we have witnessed bitcoin have been breaking new ATH right after the bitcoin halving, so people is under the impression of bitcoin bull season is being initiated by every time bitcoin halving occurs every 4 years.
So, to answer your question, there is definitely nobody has the certain of firm knowledge whether or not bitcoin hits a 6 digit figure next year. Who knows these hype will gradually die down if people stopped believing that bitcoin halving could bring bitcoin closer to their specific highest target.
As of now, we get positive feedback from the upcoming halving so it's most definitely it will develop a positive outcome as well. Everybody is still bullish towards bitcoin halving.

Do you think this confidence is just a self-fulfilling prophecy? Since people think the price will go up since it has been cut in half, they buy more, which makes the price go up.

No one really knows for sure, though, as you said. Yes, everyone is optimistic right now, which is making things better. You're right that half and a price increase dont always go together. Thats a good point of view that we should all keep in mind. Itsd great to hear what you have to say and to keep talking about this. Besides, the market can change just as quickly as the weather.

[livingfree]

When looking and comparing the 4-year cycles of the past it is also important to note that 2 major events caused the difference in last cycle compared to the others. Covid hit, causing a massive sudden decline, but I think that event could be removed as a one time thing. Then you had the limiting of the bubble due to FTX manipulation.

That's true, when covid hit, there's this printing of money left and right and that's contributed to the demand of Bitcoin where people have bought Bitcoin from that printed money.

I remember the same scenario likely on 2017 when there's Tether that has printed as well. So, I think that interconnects. But hopefully this time, there will be no more printing scenario and it's just all based on the market's growth and of course, the typical impact of halving.

Strike those two events out and I think we see a six figure BTC on the last cycle, which could enable some shocking gains in the next two years by comparison.

I'm hopeful to see that 6 digits soon and moreover the 7 digits in next more halvings.

[khiholangkang]

When looking and comparing the 4-year cycles of the past it is also important to note that 2 major events caused the difference in last cycle compared to the others. Covid hit, causing a massive sudden decline, but I think that event could be removed as a one time thing. Then you had the limiting of the bubble due to FTX manipulation.

That's true, when covid hit, there's this printing of money left and right and that's contributed to the demand of Bitcoin where people have bought Bitcoin from that printed money.

I remember the same scenario likely on 2017 when there's Tether that has printed as well. So, I think that interconnects. But hopefully this time, there will be no more printing scenario and it's just all based on the market's growth and of course, the typical impact of halving.

I also have the idea that printing money and covid had something to do with the growth in demand for bitcoin at that time, and yes we're not seeing anything like that in this cycle, but I'm pretty sure what's driving demand for bitcoin is potentially the current bitcoin ETF that will bringing bitcoin further without the crazy money printing events of the previous cycle, and that is quite an indicator of bitcoin moving forward in the halving period which ends at a new peak in 2025. This scenario will play out like mass adoption from conventional financial investors.

Strike those two events out and I think we see a six figure BTC on the last cycle, which could enable some shocking gains in the next two years by comparison.

I'm hopeful to see that 6 digits soon and moreover the 7 digits in next more halvings.

Don't be too hasty, we don't have a lot of bitcoin for that, it would be a shame if you only have a little bitcoin today, don't have a rush mentality, you will quickly get bored with market fluctuations.

[Ultegra134]

Actually there are no significant connection bitcoin halving at the price of bitcoin. It's just that people are very optimistic as we have witnessed bitcoin have been breaking new ATH right after the bitcoin halving, so people is under the impression of bitcoin bull season is being initiated by every time bitcoin halving occurs every 4 years.
So, to answer your question, there is definitely nobody has the certain of firm knowledge whether or not bitcoin hits a 6 digit figure next year. Who knows these hype will gradually die down if people stopped believing that bitcoin halving could bring bitcoin closer to their specific highest target.
As of now, we get positive feedback from the upcoming halving so it's most definitely it will develop a positive outcome as well. Everybody is still bullish towards bitcoin halving.

Statistical data suggests that the halving event may have a correlation with Bitcoin's price; it's not a fact but a possibility, because that's what happened during previous halvings. Everyone seems pretty optimistic about it, and honestly, I'm trying to remain as modest as possible in case these expectations aren't met, which, in my opinion, won't be. The world seems to be in a terrible state for anything to thrive, not Bitcoin in particular. I hope I'm proven wrong, but I also believe, like @Husires suggested, that the price will be at approximately $40,000 during the halving cycle and possibly, several months later, it'll move towards $60,000, without me being optimistic about breaking a new ATH.

[Captain Corporate]

The dump part will not happen, thatsj ust wishful thinking, we are already pretty low right now. Its going to be like it has always been and already proved that its going to be sort of like that by this time. It has been exactly the same leading up to halving so far and why would that change afterwards suddenly? If everything that happened since the last halving to this day has been same as it has been before, that is indication that the future will also be the same. We do not know how high it will go, but we know that its going to be pretty high and break over the ATH price so we should be buying right now. I am doing it, and I every smart investor would do the same.

[The Cryptovator]

Interesting circle to me; it seems we have a bull run after every halving. It would take a couple of months as well, according to past history. So we might not see bull runs and ATH during the halving. The circle clearly shows ATH was after halving, not during the halving event. This is a fact we have to keep in mind. Also,  there is a dump after every ATH. Otherwise, we can't actually mark ATH. However, I am not expecting much difference on the chart due to halving. There would be just a FOMO and pump for a short time. We may see a real bull after the halving event is over.

[livingfree]

When looking and comparing the 4-year cycles of the past it is also important to note that 2 major events caused the difference in last cycle compared to the others. Covid hit, causing a massive sudden decline, but I think that event could be removed as a one time thing. Then you had the limiting of the bubble due to FTX manipulation.

That's true, when covid hit, there's this printing of money left and right and that's contributed to the demand of Bitcoin where people have bought Bitcoin from that printed money.

I remember the same scenario likely on 2017 when there's Tether that has printed as well. So, I think that interconnects. But hopefully this time, there will be no more printing scenario and it's just all based on the market's growth and of course, the typical impact of halving.

I also have the idea that printing money and covid had something to do with the growth in demand for bitcoin at that time, and yes we're not seeing anything like that in this cycle, but I'm pretty sure what's driving demand for bitcoin is potentially the current bitcoin ETF that will bringing bitcoin further without the crazy money printing events of the previous cycle, and that is quite an indicator of bitcoin moving forward in the halving period which ends at a new peak in 2025. This scenario will play out like mass adoption from conventional financial investors.

Yeah, that's like the replacement of that factor back then. And with these ETFs that might go into approval soon, they'll be driving the demand too. But I just hope that these won't just be like hype or trends that comes once and then stops.

Strike those two events out and I think we see a six figure BTC on the last cycle, which could enable some shocking gains in the next two years by comparison.

I'm hopeful to see that 6 digits soon and moreover the 7 digits in next more halvings.

Don't be too hasty, we don't have a lot of bitcoin for that, it would be a shame if you only have a little bitcoin today, don't have a rush mentality, you will quickly get bored with market fluctuations.

It's not a problem whether you don't have a lot of Bitcoin. What matters is you have your own holdings and you'll be happy for the others that has got a lot when that happens.

But before that happens, DCA and accumulate.

[Mr.suevie]

Actually there are no significant connection bitcoin halving at the price of bitcoin. It's just that people are very optimistic as we have witnessed bitcoin have been breaking new ATH right after the bitcoin halving, so people is under the impression of bitcoin bull season is being initiated by every time bitcoin halving occurs every 4 years.
So, to answer your question, there is definitely nobody has the certain of firm knowledge whether or not bitcoin hits a 6 digit figure next year. Who knows these hype will gradually die down if people stopped believing that bitcoin halving could bring bitcoin closer to their specific highest target.
As of now, we get positive feedback from the upcoming halving so it's most definitely it will develop a positive outcome as well. Everybody is still bullish towards bitcoin halving.

Statistical data suggests that the halving event may have a correlation with Bitcoin's price; it's not a fact but a possibility, because that's what happened during previous halvings. Everyone seems pretty optimistic about it, and honestly, I'm trying to remain as modest as possible in case these expectations aren't met, which, in my opinion, won't be. The world seems to be in a terrible state for anything to thrive, not Bitcoin in particular. I hope I'm proven wrong, but I also believe, like @Husires suggested, that the price will be at approximately $40,000 during the halving cycle and possibly, several months later, it'll move towards $60,000, without me being optimistic about breaking a new ATH.

The one thing I like about the Bitcoin market is that the nature at which no one is actually certain of how the price and movement of Bitcoin will be makes it just unique. The halving is close by and alot of speculation are been thrown from different angles here and there but no one is actually certain of wether the market will thrive or dump we all are just being speculative due to previous settings amd my only question is what's happens now if the market decides to defile all the odds of previous patterns.

[franky1]

we are no longer going to see halving cycles ATH of $32-$1.2k (37.5x)
we are no longer going to see halving cycles ATHof $1.2k-$20k (16.6x)
we are no longer going to see halving cycles ATH of $20k-$70k (3.5x)

things are going to slow down

that said if you take the fundamental min max speculation window based on world mining costs top and bottom extremes are
2021 had a $10k-$75k window (possible speculation limits)
2022 had a $15k-$95k window (possible speculation limits)
2023 has a $20k-$140k window (possible speculation limits)

we could reach a upper limit window of possible speculation of $200k by 2024 meaning the spot price "COULD" reach that.. but.. no way will we get $1m in the next cycle

[Ultegra134]

The one thing I like about the Bitcoin market is that the nature at which no one is actually certain of how the price and movement of Bitcoin will be makes it just unique. The halving is close by and alot of speculation are been thrown from different angles here and there but no one is actually certain of wether the market will thrive or dump we all are just being speculative due to previous settings amd my only question is what's happens now if the market decides to defile all the odds of previous patterns.

I understand your point; however, his characteristic isn't that unique, is it? I mean, in the world in which we live, things can abruptly change; the same thing also applies to finances. The stock market also doesn't move in a predetermined direction, nor do we know if it'll thrive or not. Definitely, there are things that may provoke some movement to some degree, but nothing is certain. Although the stock market doesn't have halvings, the two are completely different in practice, even though they share many similarities in theory, which changes the whole scene. Despite the previous halvings, there's no guarantee of how Bitcoin will perform before, during, and after the halving cycle.

[arabspaceship123]

The most awaited event right now. If you really deep dive into the history of past Bitcoin block halvings, you will see that it clearly shows that the price of Bitcoin will be somehow above the lows months before the block halvings. As months before the Bitcoin block halvings is the best time to accumulate Bitcoin, just my 2 cents.

If halving's going to bring prices above low from months before it happened there isn't an indication it's going to lead to bull run. Halving's are turbulent as much as they're gold mines for profits. It's a dangerous time for newbies to buy.

we could reach a upper limit window of possible speculation of $200k by 2024 meaning the spot price "COULD" reach that.. but.. no way will we get $1m in the next cycle

News about halving's makes normal ppl go in to frenzies. I don't feel confident bitcoin's going to reach $200k price by 2024. It's speculation we'll have to wait.

[MFahad]

Actually there are no significant connection bitcoin halving at the price of bitcoin. It's just that people are very optimistic as we have witnessed bitcoin have been breaking new ATH right after the bitcoin halving, so people is under the impression of bitcoin bull season is being initiated by every time bitcoin halving occurs every 4 years.
So, to answer your question, there is definitely nobody has the certain of firm knowledge whether or not bitcoin hits a 6 digit figure next year. Who knows these hype will gradually die down if people stopped believing that bitcoin halving could bring bitcoin closer to their specific highest target.
As of now, we get positive feedback from the upcoming halving so it's most definitely it will develop a positive outcome as well. Everybody is still bullish towards bitcoin halving.

The information about halving is expanded therefore people are more engrossed in it and according to my opinion if news grows that bitcoin halving is just a rumor then may be negative effect will arises in bitcoin holders as the price will be more effected by fake or real both type of news.

People are holding bitcoin for four years because more they give time to bitcoin more they will understand the state of crypto market and they can easily get superiority as most of the situations are repeatedly occurring in specific month.

I don't know when the halving will occurs and also no body knows it but there is a fact that once you heard by the individuals that Bull run will initiate then its your emotions that will force you to take profit during such Bull run.

[bangjoe]

Too much people are betting on the fact that the same will happen historically.

So I'm betting:

1. Halving comes
2. We dump
3. We sideways chop for a good amount of time
4. People realizing that the same won't happen, hence dump
5. We pump once weak hands leave

I'm not putting heavy money on this, but I'm going to have some dry powder ready.

Does anyone have firm knowledge that halving will move Bitcoin's price to 100k$ or 150k$? No one. so how we can predict that halving will definitely arises positive impact?

Actually there are no significant connection bitcoin halving at the price of bitcoin. It's just that people are very optimistic as we have witnessed bitcoin have been breaking new ATH right after the bitcoin halving, so people is under the impression of bitcoin bull season is being initiated by every time bitcoin halving occurs every 4 years.
So, to answer your question, there is definitely nobody has the certain of firm knowledge whether or not bitcoin hits a 6 digit figure next year. Who knows these hype will gradually die down if people stopped believing that bitcoin halving could bring bitcoin closer to their specific highest target.
As of now, we get positive feedback from the upcoming halving so it's most definitely it will develop a positive outcome as well. Everybody is still bullish towards bitcoin halving.

Although there is no definite relationship between Halving Bitcoin and Bitcoin price moving itself, I agree on it, but when I see the responsibility of the people who know Bitcoin that it is made a bullish catalyst which indicates that bitcoin will be more rare, indirectly also people are indicated that when when when Bitcoin Halving occurs an increase in Bitcoin, and yes that makes most people optimistic and back Bitcoin.

I think there is someone who is intelligent in moving this stigma in the world bitcoiners, so many believe that Bitcoin Halving will give an encouragement to increase the price of Biitcoin.

[darkangel11]

I know projection is not correct but let's see how the projection is. According to it, if the historic cycle repeats itself, a next all time high can be around $180,000 to $200,000 in late of 2025, about one year and a half after 2024 April halving.

What I find inconsistent with these projections when compared to the previous cycles is that the 2017 ATH was roughly a 20x of the last one (1k), but the next one wasn't even 4x.
This means that the ATH to ATH growth was reduced by 80% cycle to cycle. What if the next one is again reduced by 80% and we only get something like 1x the ATH, or even less, so less than $140k?
If this continues, at some point we'll only be reaching a new ATH without any large growth, so one year it will be 140k and in 4 years 180k, in 4 years 200k...