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It's laughable to read those articles showing doctored data from China, then find out mere months later that China's opening from the lockdown has not been enough to make their economy surge again to pre-COVID levels. They're property/real-estate sector, which makes up a LARGE percentage of their GDP, is in the edge of crashing.

For the first time in history, China is considering to give UNSECURED loans to real-estate developers. Plus because of those fiscal stimulus that they have already distributed to help their economy, their budget deficit is in the highest in two decades. They are taking unprecedented risk to save their property sector.

https://cdn.imgchest.com/files/84jdcrzovd4.jpeg

property is always needed. its literally a hard asset
investing in property has backups of government seizing the property/land of real estate if they dont pay back. the government can be part of the deal of escrow too.

the loans are to help real estate developers finish 50-80% part-built apartment blocks so they can put them on the market, sell and then repay costs

its a drastic different story compared to say doing grants and loans to restaurants and small businesses which can take money and just close business. when you see how many scammed the small business stimulus system of multiple countries. you'll soon see investing in property is more secure

not only do the government get back loaned money of the development. but they then continually earn land/property taxes. so it pales in comparison to the small business stimulus cheques system risks

Does china charge property taxes?

Not doing well is an understatement, did you know that they're demolishing high-rise condominiums because they've built too many buildings for housing and they end up not having a lot of people buying those properties and now the real estate industry in China is on debt I think. Not to mention that the corruption in the country is just going up right now and so the buildings that are being built end up being tofu dregs and substandard that it's really difficult to find a secure and safe building. There's more to this housing crisis in China, this is probably a sign that the current Chinese regime is falling apart because they all own the real estate in the country.

Here's some helpful videos that are exposing what's happening in China right now.

I don't think they do, the government owns the land and the people who "buy" the land are just leasing it from the government so I don't know if they can still charge property tax from leasing.

They have a huge population, so that's why the price for real estate is insanely high. They can only rent an apartment, even better share a room with other people to make the cost cheaper.

I don't think it will bring the whole economy down, they will be forced to live with less money and as long as they can accept it, they will make the country rich.

Sadly China is not welcome for LGBTQ+ because gay or trans women can't give a birth, this is just a joke although it's also somewhat correct lol.

China has a huge population. That is true. But at the same time, this population is rapidly declining as a result of ultra-low birth rates. For the year 2022, Total fertility rate was estimated at just 1.09 children per woman. This is extremely low, and for comparison the TFR in Japan for the year 2022 was 1.26 children per woman and that in Russia was 1.416 children per woman. The low number of births for a continued period of time is being reflected in the economy. There is an oversupply of apartments and the demand is declining with every passing year. Retirees are moving back to their villages, while new births and in migration to the urban areas are not able to cover this.

It is true and if you look at this step, it really points to government intervention whose basic assumption is that immediate rescue is needed to maintain economic stability, especially in the property sector.

So, Referring to what you have said above, what will happen is the emergence of a property bubble due to the government's strong helping hand and later in its implementation, whether successful or not, the developers will relax because they don't feel the pressure and will say that they made a loss on item A. B, C and Others.

Chinese economy is too weird to analyze like this, specially without doing extensive research into it. For example last time a sector in China was about to go bankrupt, it turned out that it was the Chinese government's doing. They basically bankrupt them to prevent capital from leaving the country!!!
Not saying this is the same but you got to do a lot more research to figure what the hell is going on in China.

The economic crisis is a global matter so it is affecting every country but to be honest China is one of the least affected ones. For example the budget deficit thing you are talking about is like $130 billion which is like 1% of China's GDP and is really nothing specially since the GDP growth for China is above 5%.

In comparison other countries are doing a lot worse. For example US budget deficit is already in the trillions ($1.7 trillion to be exact) which is a much bigger percentage of the GDP too (nearly 7%) and the growth US set was 2.4%.

'government land lease' is a form of taxation

or $100 per citizen

compare that to
is $5000 per citizen

Well that's China's problem! Why would the rest of the world care about it when China itself doesn't care about the rest of the world?? I see no reason!

China has invested billions of dollars in many other small countries as well. Now when these countries are unable to pay back the debt, China is taking over those projects to build military infrastructure.

So I honestly don't believe anything coming from China. Not the good and definitely not the bad. You never know what's going in the background.

China has a good economy but their government pampers investors too much with easy loans, the real estate business in China has a bleak future, this is because the purchasing power of the people there continues to decline and many cannot afford to buy a house, in the future  if this continues to happen then we will see cases like evergreen again.

I saw an explanation on YouTube about china's real estate bubble. They don't even finish the apartments, that would lower the value. And they have tens of millions of empty new apartments, just for the sake of investing. It's the biggest bubble ever, and the only way forward is to make it worse.

If only that, things are so bad they do ridiculous things, as I mentioned here
China real estate crisis: Buy a house and get a gold bar! (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5464560.0)

They are of offering you a ton of thing extra on top of the house so they could till sell it at fixed prices, since the government isn't allowing them to lower the price, sooner you'll see offers for houses worth $300k and with a $200k prize if you purchase it in....the next 20 years!
But they keep building, more and more and more, and all on debt.


Far more complicated than just that!

First thing, you can't move freely in China, this is not the US where you can just pack your bag and go east cost to west coast, in China they have a hukou system, imagine that if your parent moved to a different city for work and will face restrictions you as a child will face them too, the whole thing is inheritable so some people can't move, others are forced to move, the govemermnt builds things somewhere, the regional government builds entire cities elsewhere, each mayor builds whatever he wants and because of the restrictions you end with an unbalanced market, made worse by the fact that some cities force one home per family and some region won't allow you to purchase another home as long as you have a mortgage even if you want to move. So you need to first sell it, be homeless, then move to the other city, get residence and then buy your home,i f allowed. On the other hand, where homes are plentiful and the governments build like amd, nobody wants to live cause there are no jobs!

I just read the news somewhere about ZEG going bankrupt. The economy is showing terrifying signs. Since the default of a large real estate corporation in China, I have always had the feeling that they have suffered heavy losses to the economy.

It's not certain that the cajoling of the leaders will help China escape the economic recession. Perhaps elimination is inevitable at this stage, and we will still see many other professions eliminated. The impact of the economy shows signs of disruption. Big countries like America, China, Russia,... are all having to deal with different challenges to their economies. Perhaps we, the people, always want freedom, independence, and peace.

when covid happened and everyone had to stay home. alot of people got annoyed with their space(cabin fever) and surveys showed an uptick of people wanting to move to a better space..
this triggered real estate to think this was an opportunity to build more apartments in locations with less restrictions or more prospects. however
when covid lockdowns ended. not as many people actually still wanted to leave for a better location. (cabin fever ended)

also many of the developers that started building were not building spacious luxury apartments. they got greedy and built small unsuitable apartments in towns where there was not enough employers nearby(made cheap on cheap land). so people didnt pre-buy apartments in the development phase. so many developers ran out of funds before they could complete builds

in more detail many developers planned to get to 50%-80% builds and use the other funds to start the next apartment block before the first was complete
however they were unable to pre-sale the second apartment block means they couldnt regain funds to finish the first block
this caused those who did pre-but the first block didnt get to move in. causing them to not honour the mortgage

in short developers made too many, too fast based on a survey conducted during covid that suggested a boom of people moving,relocated. but it turned out that the survey was based on lockdown emotions of temporary cabin fever.. not actually based on peoples true ability, readiness and willingness to relocate

analogy
its much like watching tv and during the advertisements complaining that you will change channel and stop watching their tv show and watch a different new tv show on a new channel because the adverts are ruining the tv show.. but you end up watching the tv show on the same channel.. whilst the studios were hoping they could gain your viewer stats on their new channel due to peoples thoughts of the other channel. so they make cheap shows hoping to tempt people... but people just continue watching the standard channels shows because they are comfy with the shows they already watch

now the new channel is in financial hardship with many tv series being unfinished, and other tv shows in development

an untouched lesbian can make babies if they are young say 50 or less.

cut transgender are sterile but they may have save eggs or sperm or fertilized embryos.

Who doesn't know this country called the Bamboo Curtain country? At first many people thought that a socialist country like China was difficult to become a developed country.
But what happened next, this bamboo curtain country was able to show who he was, and made his country a developed country, also made his country one of the countries with the largest economic power in the world.

So I think if for example this will have an impact on the entire Chinese economy, I think it's too much. And I think in just a few time this will soon be resolved and Chinese will soon rise from this downturn.

Indeed, if we think back that the Chinese state business in the real estate sector is one of the engines to grow and develop the Chinese economy. Because at least this business has contributed up to a range of thirty percent to the GDP of this bamboo curtain country. So with the instability of this business, it is enough to hit the Chinese economy. And the country's economic growth has been hampered for some time.
 

It seems that the idea of ​​giving the Chinese a chance to find their home (as the highest goal in life) and create a market that constantly generates turnover, income and jobs is collapsing. Now I’ll explain what I mean.

Let's not hide it - having your own home is probably one of the key goals in life for 99% of the population. Not the only one, but one of many of the most important.

Now let’s imagine what the potential of the Chinese real estate market is with its more than 1 billion population? HUGE! But in order to launch this market, it is necessary to create some conditions:
1. Opportunity to buy! But given the prices of real estate in China, and the average income, few people can just come and pour a bunch of money into a developer company. The right way out is loans/mortgages! And this also means that people will stick to their jobs, not create unnecessary movements, will be more law-abiding and generally obedient, because loss of income is synonymous with loss of housing and eviction onto the street, without any compensation.
2. It is also desirable to make sure that people have an incentive - so that each generation buys their own apartment! Otherwise, they will live after their parents and not “pour money” into this extremely profitable and politically advantageous business. Voila - we are writing a law according to which the buyer does not have a lifelong ownership right to housing purchased in China. In China, a person owns a home for 70 years from the date of construction of the house. That is, if you are now buying a home in a house built in 2000, then you are purchasing it for 47 years and in 2070 the ownership right will be lost.
The same thing happens with a private house: the land on which the house stands is leased from the state, and the state will decide what to do with this land after the expiration of the term.

Great ! We have an ideal picture - constant demand, the majority buys on credit and long-term payment obligations, a lot of jobs are created, because... There is massive construction going on all over China. It’s beautiful - people are busy, dependent, and have a feeling of satisfaction of a key need.

But that is if everything is perfect. And it turned out that the scheme began to fail... "In 2022, real estate sales in China fell by 26.8% and the trend continues. According to Goldman Sachs, China's total real estate debt is currently $12 trillion. Two-thirds are debts on loans, one third are debts of developers. It is estimated that more than $ 400 billion of debts will never be paid." expect huge problems for the Chinese economy due to the collapse of the real estate market. I am sure that the state will not only not want to finance the closure of the problem, but it will not be able to financially...

The problem with such bulky systems or circuits is that it works if the situation is ideal.. As soon as we move away from the ideal, this huge machine begins to destroy itself with its weight

It seems that the Chinese real estate market has been having some issues for almost a decade, since property prices fell in 2014 (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/21/chinas-property-troubles-are-getting-worse-and-need-beijings-support.html). It's 22% of their economy, so it's indeed a pretty big part of it, but, to be honest, I don't think the situation's bad enough to actually bring China's economy down (although I suppose it depends on how to interpret that phrase).
That being said, it's not the only bad thing with the prospects of China's economy. China overshot with its one-child policy and abandoned in too late, so the population is not starting to decline (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmehUgOy5ok), which is expected to have a negative impact on its economy. In the meantime, a record high  (https://apnews.com/article/china-youth-unemployment-jobs-economy-aeddf9fd7c188db7d72dbb3cca6ebbf7)number (1 in 5) of young adults are unemployed. So, if we combine all that, China's certainly facing challenging times for its economy, although I don't think we're near a point of true devastation.

I don't know about their real estate issues bringing down the entire economy or something, but their economy is definitely suffering due to multiple reasons. Countries like India seem to be doing better in comparison even though they surpassed their population recently.

As long as Xi is in power, most of their citizens will continue to suffer in my opinion.

Bruh, there is nothing special about China becoming a developed country, Vietnam did so, and their global power rank is just based on their huge population, nothing else, if you look at real nominal GDP per capita China is below Argentina Tukey or Mexico, there is one China, the one doing all hose exports and the financial centers and the rest of China with 300 million migrant workers that are exploited by their own for this status, migrant workers who make on average $600 a month, is that the showcase of an economic power?


Just wait for it, they have stopped publishing this data, they will invent a new indicator that is "better", then fudge the previous numbers to be far worse than in reality and publish the new statistic and success, unemployment is down from 30% to 25% which is way better than growing from 20% to 25%, right? When China stops publishing something you know it's far worse than even what they said previously, so bad they can't even fake the numbers anymore.


And Congo is doing better than Germany and Bangladesh better than France!
Also Madagascar is better then Switzerland, their GDP growth is 4.2% compared to 2.6% last year and their population is also three times larger, so, Madagascar rules, right? Except that their wage is $600 per year compared to $7000 a month!

Isn't this year 2023 many calamities facing the country of China, and maybe because of these events, there seems to be a real estate problem?

Of course, if you sell real estate, there probably won't be much interest, especially if it has been hit by a severe calamity or disaster, because buyers may think that if another disaster occurs, only the real estate they will buy will be affected the property. Therefore, it won't give any benefit it from them in the end.

results for JUNE!
many students resign from their college campus role to return home for summer break

funny how the article wants to sensationalise the stats for 16-24 age group, but they couldnt do the basic good reporting standard of even interviewing several people in that age group to get a grasp of their experience/reasons.. and instead they interviewed ONE person outside the age group who was 29, not 16-24

so take things with a pinch of salt when an article makes speculation of reasons without even interviewing the group the article is meant to be about

Doesn't matter
https://www.talkimg.com/images/2023/11/25/NUeHd.png

It was 16% in June 2020 and 13% in June 2018, it has grown for 8 years missing growth in 2021 by only  0.3%.
Besides, if it weren't something serious the govemermnt wouldn't have stopped releasing the data, right?

Back to the crisis, this is fresh from the newsfeed:
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-property-real-estate-crisis-white-list-bank-loans-2023-11

$451 billion to complete 20 million housing units, that were pre-sold!
20 million houses started and financed when everyone though real-estate was a good investment, pre-sold at prices were above current levels, but with no chance of actually being worth that much in the future while the same companies that look now for billions in loans also look at dwindling numbers in future orders.

Honestly, USA had a 800+ billion dollar crash just because of real estate and nothing really happened, and I do not think that this would mean anything for China neither. Surely the inflation while trying to fix it is a big issue, and people would rather not have that and would love to not burst the bubble, but the growth at times could be facing tough situations like this and has to halt. USA growth until 2008 was insane, from 2001 to 2008 they grew at an insane speed, used most of it on Iraq war to be fair, and got so much from it, but at the end of the day we are talking about something that can't be sustained. Same happened with China, their construction industry was at all time high levels, they were building insane high amount of buildings, everywhere, and better than before, think of redoing a whole 1+ billion population nation, obvious that we are talking about something that would be unsustainable in the end.

you read my response
you post a link showing a graph.. but you still dont see the point
every summer break has the peak of the years

students do seasonal work, get it yet

hers another context that can help

more 'young adults' go into education vs straight into work....
now do you see the context of why the numbers are as they are

if a economy was flatline.. but young adults chose education to better themselves. the graph you showed would look like a graph of that scenario.. completely independent of inflation/deflation.. just the decision of more kids going college causes bigger waves

this has more correlation to the employment swings of that age group, more so than inflation/recession
https://www.statista.com/statistics/227028/number-of-students-at-universities-in-china/
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/25/Na6Ma.png

2021 was low due to covid stuff, people learning from home, working from home so not part time working on campus to then quit as much when summer arrived


yep as i said... before GREEDY developers took the money started building but at 50-80% through started on new plots to try and pre-sell those too
only problem is there were no buyers of the second plots meaning no money to then finish the first plots(rob peter to pay paul)

as for the $451bill for 20m homes.. thats only $22.5k each... kinda cheap, good deal
now guess how much budget UK/US set to build houses at a per house cost... via US/UK tax money treated as loans/grants

They probably are least affected, but offering unsecured loans is the first in China's history causing their budget deficit to be the highest in decades, and it's growing. But OK, that's probably nothing.

You also said that the economic crisis is a global matter. That's true, and it's probably why China doesn't want the U.S. economy to crash. Why? Because the U.S. is China's biggest customer for their manufactured goods. China's domestic economy can't support their manufacturing sector.

My personal opinion, if you set aside the external economy that lives off of "China is the factory of everything".
One of the key needs of the population is their own housing. And the Chinese government decided to combine the experience of the USSR in providing citizens with mass housing, but taking into account other economic realities. To begin with, in the USSR such a global project "for centuries" was realized at the expense of poverty wages of citizens who had a Chance to get some real estate, as if "for free".

China decided to kill many birds with one stone:
- To give a feeling of availability of real estate to citizens
- To give a powerful boost to the INTERNAL economy - the mass construction market pulls up a huge number of related parties, and now, probably directly or indirectly worked for this segment of the economy tens of millions of people and many thousands of companies.
- At the same time, according to the legislation, the real estate market, or rather the life of housing - not eternal, legally - 70 years from the date of construction. And then buy a new one. This means that this sector of the economy will work forever.
- The banking sector is developing, because most of the housing is bought on credit.
- A person with loans secured by state banks, becomes more "obedient", because "unacceptable behavior" going against the "line of the ruling party of China" - synonymous with the deprivation of work, the ability to pay the loan for your home and eventually - its loss.

The idea was great, but the realization was shaken after COWID19, and the changes in China's domestic policy, or rather the shift to totalitarian methods, with the rejection of democratic and capitalist ideas. Also, increased relations with the West did not improve the economy, but significantly worsened the government's ability to rely on foreign currency revenues to finance mega-companies such as Evergrande and government lending programs.

Interestingly enough, Chinese government has been focusing on this. They've been trying to build that up to improve the domestic "demand" in their economy and strengthen it from within. In fact one of the reasons why they are less affected by the global crisis is this.

But you are right. China has always wanted stability so that they can milk everyone in the world! If US economy crashes, China will be significantly affected. This is also why they always try to or hope for stability in other regions of the world too, such as West Asia.

However, lets not forget that for China that is a double edge sword. In fact the reason why China owns a huge amount of US debt is two reasons:
First is to help the dead US economy to stay alive artificially for longer so that they can milk it more.
And second is that at the same time they want to have a very potent weapon against United States in case US regime wanted to face China militarily for instance (ie. if China dumps the massive amount of US bonds they own at cheap prices it would annihilate US economy).

chinas domestic economy vs international. does not affect much of the manufacturing economy

china's manufacturing is 90% automated by robots. so less products doesnt cause mass loss of employee's. they just slow down the machines speed
to make less products per hour

however, looking at the stats
when it comes to microchip production for instance.
the 2019 stat was 215m wafers per month
the 2021 stat was 296m wafers per month (+36%)
so 2023 can drop by -36% and still be like 2021

however looking at actual data
china are making MORE wafer fabrication facilities.. so production is seeing demand not slowdown so it appears 2024-2025 will have even higher wafer per month stats compared to 2021 economy

It would be laughable to believe that China's dometic demand alone would be enough to support their whole manufacturing sector at its current state and size. There will be a recession if international demand goes down.


It's merely business, ser. The world needs cheap goods, China can manufacture them.


There might actually be a Banking Crisis that could probably crash the whole U.S. economy next year, https://www.fxhedgers.com/p/powell-says-the-quiet-part-out-loud

It might probably give us another opportunity to BUY The DIP like 2020 crash too.

It's not supposed to. It's not like Chinese exports have halted altogether or have had a significant decrease (like 80%) for them to need to cover it with domestic economy.
In the ongoing global recession, demand for Chinese goods hasn't really changed that much. Their exports were slightly decreased (IIRC it was something like 4%). That is why they only needed to cover that small deficit.
Which is where the decreased interest rates, other incentives for domestics producers and demand for them started coming out.

Unfortunately, because they do it by killing the economy of other countries as capital migrates to China same as the jobs. In fact this is why in a lot of countries including USA the middle class fell down to become lower class.

There are a lot of different reasons why United States could fall apart in the near future. That is why they do what they've always done: start wars.

china is not dependant on america. america is a small populus

us has 330m

south america has 400m+
EU has 700m+
africa has 1200m+
rest of asia(exclude china) has 3100m+

S.A+EU+A+RoA= 5400+

US only amounts to 6% of just the main area's listed
so if US completely 100% stops using chinese produce.. it only affects china by 6%

Well we are quite some time after the pandemic, subsequent money printing & supply chain issues. I realise tyere is always a lag with these things but I really hope we are past the worst now & we can start being confident of a soft landing. After the last few years, we really do not want a hard landing, recession & what comes with it, we have suffered enough.

But that's the point, it can't.


Perhaps not, and perhaps it's truly nothing, but they are starting offer unsecured loans to real-estate developers, and don't forget that's a first in their history and probably a sign of distress.

Plus, currently, it might not be that concerning, but budget a deficit that's the highest in two decades? If export revenues go down, their deficit will definitely go up.


China doesn't want the U.S. to enter a recession. What's bad for the United States - the largest importer, will be bad for China - the largest exporter.


War - like the pandemic, will be the next Black Swan?

Where does the public get their news in China since most media outside can access information there. In spite of the fact that the information about the real estate of the country is unclear and varies everywhere, there is something that is not right about the real estate. It has been reported in the past that the president of the country is dissatisfied with the country's housing/real estate market. In other words, the housing system is not meant to make money, but rather to live, affecting the real estate business immediately, and then follows the pandemic crisis. As for other recent information that cannot be verified, I will accept information from anyone who recently visited China and has first-hand knowledge.

This is where I'm at.
We never really know what's really happening on the ground in countries like this. You see mainly what they allow you to see. A country filled with so much sensory. The citizens see mainly what the government wants them to see while the outside world sees only what the government wants them to see.

I see a lot of things and I know it's highly exaggerated. Like the "dollar will soon be worthless" talk.
People made it seem like the US dollar would be worthless in the coming year, but if you look deeper into it, the dollar was doing better than the Chinese yuan.
It's easier for people to poke holes in the US because it's easily accessible. In the sense that the data and on-ground situation of the US can be gathered relatively more easily but in the case of China, they just show you what they want you to see.

Quite a controversial statement.
Measuring the number of people had real "value" in the Middle Ages, when the number of people was the measure of the power of the state.
It's easy to prove. Take the economies of Switzerland and, for example, Bangladesh. And compare the numbers.

Switzerland:
Population 8.7 million
GDP 800.6 billion USD
Or 91945 USD/person.

Bangladesh:
Population 169.4 million
GDP 869.044 billion
Or 5129 USD/person.

What does the picture tell us ? That with a population 20 times smaller, Switzerland generates the same GDP.

Let's add China :)
Population 1400 million.
GDP 17730 billion USD
Or 12664 USD/person

As you can see - the number of people is not an indicator of the quality and competitiveness of an economy... And this is despite the fact that China is an export-oriented economy, and the global west gives most of the income and budgets of China. So there is a significant dependence of the Chinese economy on the west, and the number of people in China does not give a competitive advantage.

Are you familiar with the real estate bubble in China?
China has entire cities full with new buildings and nobody wants to buy an apartment in those buildings.
I agree that the Chinese government can seize the properties, if the companies fail to repay their loans, but the problem remains.
What would the Chinese government do with thousands of apartments, which cannot be sold because nobody wants to buy them?
The whole real estate bubble will collapse, when the demand for new houses/apartments goes down.
Of course China has enough reserves to temporarily solve the problem by injecting more money into the real estate business.
The problem is that this solution is temporary.

That would have been true if all countries were the same. But it is not.

Ever since Capitalism hit America, it become increasingly unprofitable to produce anything inside US. This is why US is the biggest importer of anything from anywhere specially from China. For example statistica says 16% of Chinese exports are to US.
On the other hand, the same thing hasn't happened in other countries. Or at least not with the same severity. So others still have production of their own so they don't have to import this much goods from China with such a MASSIVE deficit like US ($367.4 billion in 2022[2]).

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/270326/main-export-partners-for-china/
[2] https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

Yeah, recession is a different matter. But China definitely want weaker US (economically, militarily or politically). The more US economy falls apart, the more they can export. For example with dedollarisation, the dollar becomes weaker and inflation goes up inside US, that makes production even less profitable and importing cheap Chinese goods more profitable.

Checking the long term US trade deficit shows this very well. For example 20 years ago that deficit was barely $60 billion but as soon as W. Bush took office in 2001 and started his adventures, US economy was screwed and that deficit was tripled before 2005 ended. Now it's between $300 to $400 billion annually.

Maybe a civil war ;)

I highly doubt it may bring the whole economy down, I think it's obvious that it will cause trouble but they could just simply print money and cover it like USA did and then they could just end up moving forward with it. Surely it hurts, USA was hurt due to 2008 as well, but it didn't last long and by 2012-2013 the market was doing great anyway.

So, it is obvious that China could suffer for a while but then they will do fine and it will not be an issue for them, it will not be too quick but it will not be "whole economy down" type of thing. These are huge nations, with insane incomes, they will find a way to get back on their feet, they do not have to worry, surely there are a lot of debts now, but there are a lot of income that can eventually pay that debt too, which will be fine for them. I think the best thing we can do right now regarding this situation would be letting them do whatever they want to do and they could end up doing great eventually with time.

What we're now starting to see is a bit more contagion, there was a news article published a couple days back stating that one of the biggest "shadow lenders" in China is in major trouble and it was organizing financing deals for struggling real estate developers. If the shadow financing world collapses, then we might start to see the whole chain break apart. There are millions, hundreds of millions, of Chinese people who put all their savings into property that might lose their whole retirement plan if the problem keeps on growing. It's all the fault of the Chinese government though, as they wanted this property bubble to keep blowing up because it was an easy way to appear richer with so much internal construction taking place, but as with many things it was mostly fake.

Even if the birth rate is low, the current population is too large for cities. Since the demand for real estate was so high in the past, the price has peaked. After the pandemic, construction decreased, and people migrated more to rural areas due to increasing inflation and difficulty in purchasing power, all of these were factors. As construction starts are decreasing and all of them are at the same rate, it has become inevitable for the real estate sector to continue its course.

 China is one of the most populated country in the world therefore estate business in china should be at the peak at all time because population is attributed to an estate business. But if the estate business is not working well for then they have the opportunity to key into Bitcoin investment because we have china local board in the forum and that shows that they are not idle about Bitcoin but they are very much active in it.

The COVID 19 destroyed many businesses in the world and many countries are still trying to come out from the shock.

China has a falling working population, its a big hole in its growth story potential.   This mostly effects banks who have leveraged those speculating on those markets.   The ironic thing about China despite its massive size as a country they will soon be 2nd largest country in the world after decades of forcing families to discard any children beyond just one allowed.  This has a massive effect on the underlying expansion of the country, China will continue to develop and improve as an economy and people with higher income but it will be at a slower rate and the biggest requirement is for a high efficiency to their actions.
  Its well known the property sector was inefficient in many ways to the extent of being dangerous and corrupt in parts.  Buildings are condemned without ever being occupied and/or built in areas not requiring populations of people to live.  The communists can force anything to be true by rule of the gun but they cannot alter basic economic and market laws, it leads to failure anyway despite the political will and backing of the largest national banks.   I do think those banks will be the weak spot but no doubt they are supported by the state.

They got a lot of real estate developers on the said country focused only on already dense regions. Also, their workers aren't earning enough, reducing their capacity to purchase homes and properties from these developers. I guess the government will have to bail out their developers in order to keep things afloat and looking good in the mean time, but with a population that doesn't have enough buying power to support the growing supply, I doubt it will last.

I doubt there is any country in the world that can restore their economic growth back to be like the pre-covid condition the damage is too severe. But China's decision to give unsecured loan to real-estate developer, when there are already some prediction about real-estate bubble burst, and many people believe the real-estate in general is arleady over-valued.

This is what happens when purchasing power of people declines and there are government and banks who will surely bail out these builders, but what about the people over there? There were some massive mistakes made by this current regime and if we look at the broader picture we may find China is in vulnerable state at the moment because of its declining working population and all these sanctions, humanitarian issues. I think it's time communist regime relook into their policy and work towards growth of people rather than industrialists and once people are financially stable then by default their buying power would increase and such crisis might be rare.

Some statistics on Evergrande only:
Chinese developer Evergrande owns 1300 real estate projects in 280 cities in China. The company employs 200 thousand employees, and the number of workplaces indirectly created by the holding is 4 million.
As of the end of July, Hengda Real Estate's unpaid debts totaled about 277.5 billion yuan ($38 billion) - that's about 1,931 court cases pending. And it's worth adding - that's not all the debts....
Let's add to this - the non-payment of taxes to the budget, from about 4 million workers, and a huge number of companies.
Of course, this will not bring China down to the level of "stone age" in 1 day, but it is guaranteed to create huge problems for the economy, which already has a lot of problems

Family economic stability can be a benchmark for a country's economic development. When Covid occurs, various economic sectors experience a decline, so that people's purchasing power decreases, especially in the property sector, because of course they will prioritize basic needs for survival. The government has taken steps to stimulate shortages in the property sector, and we will see the progress

This only shows how desperate they are and how cornered they feel, the growth of the Chinese economy has been the talk of politicians and economists for decades, however it was easy to experiment dramatic growth when the economy of China had been annihilated by its communist leaders.

However now that China is finally finding some difficulty to grow, we are finding out they have severe problems, with the most important being their aging population, as their one-child policy is finally showing the tremendous impact that it will have on China from now on.

You forgot to add that they are also demolishing newly built high rise condominiums because there's no one that's going to live there not to mention didn't they also created a condominiums in one of their provinces that are supposed to be a eco friendly because they've incorporated greenery in those buildings but they ended up creating a green hellscape because those plants because a habitat for a lot of mosquitos? Another that I can think why this is happening is because China wants to develop a lot of their provinces into becoming an urbanized mega cities and combine it with the corruption of the ruling party and a lot will probably conclude that there's only one end to what they're doing. I agree that this is going to be the biggest bubble in China and I hope that when it pops, the people will finally do something about how their government does it's thing.

Perhaps another cause for concern among Chinese investors, and it shows that there are people who are starting to become more distressed for their economy.

The China International Capital Corporation, a state-owned multinational investment and financial services company, has banned/censored all of its analysts from writing or saying anything bad about China's economy, the Chinese market, and Chinese companies.

That's Q.P. - Quantitative Pleasing.

 8)

Hiding the reality and banning the publication of real figures, the "best" indicator that things aren't going well...

But as long as stock data is still available, here it just is, and there's nothing you can do about it :)

Chinese stocks closed in the negative on Friday - investors remained cautious given the sluggish economic recovery, and strong foreign investment outflows further reduced risk appetite.

The Shanghai Composite index fell 0.68 percent to 3,040.97 points, while the blue-chip CSI300 index fell 0.66 percent to 3,538.01 points.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.96% to 17,559.42 points and the China Enterprises index fell 2.1% to 6,041.15 points.

Mainland blue chips lost 0.8% for the week, their worst weekly performance in a month, while the Hang Seng Index climbed 0.6%.


Total: decline, forecasts - not comforting, and "cherry on the cake", the government introduces strict censorship on the publication of real data on the state of the economy, which will lead to another wave of capital outflow and investment from China....

Welcome to the real world where every government is doing exactly this with a different approach ;D
China being a traditional dictatorship, bans things outright and obvious like. Others like US that are a modern dictatorship, bans the same things in a different and non-obvious way. For example by having full control over the mainstream and social media and prevent the facts from coming out. That means despite all economy experts calling US economy the literal definition of a Ponzi scheme, that is not allowed to be said in the mainstream media for the majority to hear. Anybody who says it, despite their academic weight, is called a "conspiracy theorist" until 2008 is repeated and everything falls apart!

USA doesnt have a dictatorship its just a heavily government dominated economy, quite a few countries exist in that way it doesnt have to preclude democracy but I think when a country undermines capitalism it leads to that path.  Its clear the currency earnt by the common working man, family or population is being misused and spent underneath the savings and attempts of those who would use that plain cash as their principal worth after receiving plain wages.  If you own assets in the majority you are massively better off then those stuck in cash I think.
  The dictatorship is the control of the money, alot of things stem from that even abroad thats true that the dollar is vital to control and denial of trade to unfriendly regimes.  Russia is trying to use gold as a proxy most likely, they decided that policy long ago and any invasion they carry out is with knowledge of difficulties with Dollar.  Similarly China has for over twenty years been the largest buyer of gold and for a long time the largest producer with little exports they are accumulating massively.   China can underpin the majority of the commodity market fairly easy, they just buy so much more then anyone else and often try to dominate and manipulate prices even with treasuries they have been censured for illegal practices when dealing from what I remember.
  Its probably the case that most of NATO sees Dollar actions as required in parallel to defense otherwise.  War games include economic policy and actions that could take place as its quite valid.  So I think dollar is being mismanaged, there's multiple bad policies and over spend but its not just one country doing that its tolerated and propagated across the globe on purpose.

It's been like this for a couple years now. Saw some reads and a documentary talking about how the housing bubble in China's much worse compared to the US. Imagine the biggest housing provider in your country, who "owns" 80% of the commercial buildings in your city territories as well as a couple rural areas defaulting on their loans cause apparently they took out loans to erect these buildings, with the idea of these houses paying for themselves when they get occupied, and then getting fucked over sideways when you realize that the economy's not allowing for this to happen.

So yeah, if you don't mind the worsening political situation in mainland China, as well as the economy, might want to wait for the housing bubble in there to pop completely and then buy yourself a house :) time to take advantage of the people who took advantage of us.

A very profound misconception. I will not give you the reasons :)

First of all, there is no media monopoly in the USA. There are media outlets openly funded and supported by different parties and groups. And they are opposing. Therefore, the subjects of materials can be any! Yes, there is a ban on materials that in one way or another, support illegal currents, ideologists, groups - terrorists, criminals, etc. layers. This is normal. But even so, you can't compare the state-controlled, CENTRALIZED media, as in China, with the fairly independent, law-abiding media in the United States. And they differ from state to state. Any totalitarian centralized power (as in China) will always monopolize the right to information !

Guys, correct me if I am wrong but, arent most of the Chinese real state projects of a very low building quality, to the point there have been recorded cases of those building actually going down by their own and similar scary situations?
We can all agree that China population is big and real state may always have value in that country, but as far as I understand, the bulk of the Chinese population is concentrated in big cities, specially near their East coast.

If this is indeed a bubble which wil inevitably pop in the future, I wonder if anyone of you have an strategy to short the Chinese real state market from the comfort of your desk?
Is there any way to do so without having a centralized bank account in China? Just curious, I don't have liquidity to seriously short anything.  :P

Well, objectively, I wouldn't label all buildings as substandard. Some are quite good, some not so good.
The main problem here is that Evergrande in recent years just tried to show a beautiful picture, and built really "dead cities", which then simply demolished. It was profitable for the company - new 100500 apartments, it is considered as an asset of the company, increases its attractiveness, creates the appearance of active work and high demand for this real estate provider,..... . And then they were quietly demolished, having invested in the construction of a small part of the real project documentation.... Some really "demolished themselves", there are many videos where the house just falls, because it lacks a proper foundation and the building stood almost on several concrete pillars that did not hold in the ground.....

I am not shocked about this decision, in fact I think I am shocked that they were even capable of doing something like that beforehand. I mean think about it, you are Chinese, you work for the government in a government owned investment company, and you are an analyst there, and you write something like things are going bad, that feels like that must be banned there already. I mean china is ruled by a dictator, no matter how much people there may deny it, it's true that there are no elections and they have presidents for life and they just ruled by iron fist.

It means that I would expect nobody would be allowed to say anything bad about that place, if you do then the government "will take care of you" or at least that's what I assumed so far. Apparently they were not, and now it's banned like expected, yet I have never seen any Chinese person to go out on public and say something bad about china while being still employed by the government at the same time.

This makes sense, if you depend completely over a system and even your future depends entirely over that system then what kind of person will dare to openly express their concerns over the long term availability of such system?

Only those willing to leave the system behind will have the guts to do it, but then they can be immediately dismissed by the governments claiming they are dissenters and that their opinion is worth nothing, even if they are the only ones willing to speak the truth.

The Union Bank of Switzerland broke up its entire asset management team in China, and has let go of their plans of becoming one of the leading/largest foreign asset managers in the country.

I believe that illustrates that the worst is about to come in the Chinese economy. U.B.S. is just one of the foreign asset managers in China. Some of the other asset managers will definitely follow.

Why wouldn't they, it's just not worth it anymore. It was definitely worth it at some point, and it looked like it would be fun to make some money that way but when you look at it this way then suddenly it looks like it's not worth it. We are talking about spending millions just to have an office and workers there, it's just the infostructure that would not be worth it, and they are going to end up being a lot worse on that front.

This is why I believe that we are going to end up with something that will not be all that simple, and more and more people will get out of it. China has done something terrible with the money they got, they were so rich, they made so much money, it shouldn't have been spent on anything like this at all. They could have used their money to build stuff that would keep on making even more money, build even more factories, pay people even more and just grow that nation organically. Trying to grow it by throwing money at it ended up horribly for them.

A little earlier, another similar event occurred under the headline "China no longer promising"
" ....Vanguard Group Inc. announced the sale of its stake in Ant Group Co. The agreement was made with the support of Jack Ma. The company is thus exiting the $4 trillion Chinese mutual fund market.
Vanguard's share will be acquired by Ant. The asset management giant has decided to close its business in China. The sale of a stake in the advisory firm was another step in its complete exit from the world's second richest economy. The giant no longer sees potential in that direction..."

Not the best of developments for the Chinese economy.....

China is greedy in almost anything or let me just call it ambitious. They even wanted to control the entire West Philippine Sea from nine dash line to ten dash line affecting some of it's neighbors and that is non existent based on international law. They've built infrastructures that resembles a ghost town within disputed islands to make it look like being occupied by civilians but it was all for military purposes.

Regarding the real estate issue, I think the infrastructure to population ratio does not match and also those additional tofu-dreg projects makes occupants to rethink and abandon contracts.

But like all economies around different regions of the world, an economy can't expand forever, and not especially China's economy for the zoomed out long term. Why? Because currently their population is getting older. They're slowly not having enough young people to support the older generation = China's population is dying.

Currently, I have been reading that China's five largest state-owned banks have cut deposit interest rates to discourage people from saving and stimulate spending.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

China should learn from the Federal Reserve and turn on their money-printer.

China's problem, it is my personal opinion, is the "party's" choice of course on the
1. The vector of power to totalitarianism and the abolition of freedoms, including economic freedoms.
2. Departure from the model launched by Deng Xiaoping, which allowed to develop the economy, private business, and actually make China what it is now.

Xi Jinping's "new trends", in my opinion, have turned China in the opposite direction - opposing the West, "star disease", contacts with rogue countries, curtailing freedoms within China, state control over business, manipulation of information, and attempts to inflate bubbles like the real estate market - all this will not lead to achievements, it can only lead to problems.

And yes, I agree - all countries have problems, but they are looking for real solutions "to cure" the problem, not methods to hide the disease....

After a major disaster, a country's economy collapses. And COVID was such a disaster that shook the whole world.  No country has been able to get out of its grip, no country has yet.  But I don't think the whole economy of China will go down. Their country's population is high and they have to face many problems because of it.  Hope everything will be fine in their economy system.

The problem is not that the WHOLE economy will collapse, but a 10-15% drop in the economy is enough to cause a tsunami of problems in China - from mass unemployment and a surge of discontent with the passivity of the state. And the state with administrative measures and totalitarian tools will not be able to quickly and qualitatively return to the Chinese what they had yesterday. Including sufficient freedoms, including economic freedoms. The Chinese leadership will take extremely harsh measures, such as "martial law", where everyone will be obliged to do not what they want, but what the "wise ruler" tells them to do. It will be something similar to the past with "military comunism".
The second problem is the departure of Western investors, technologies, and companies. I don't think anyone will return to China in the next 10+ years - they have already "appreciated the charms of the new party vector", and no one wants to take risks, given the probability of a potential risk of a more powerful conflict and confrontation between the Western world and China.

I disagree. It all comes down to demand. The demand for Chinese goods is increasing. Check out the massive and still increasing trade deficits between China and any country you like, it is in hundreds of billions specially with largest economies like US. With recession and inflation in the world this will continue growing faster too. That is why they keep Yuan exchange rate weak.
The only way that it would stop growing is if the Chinese government allows Yuan to get stronger (increase exchange rate) against other fiat currencies (which they'll never do) or if other fiat currencies like dollar and euro get dumped as low as Yuan to be able to compete with Chinese products, 1 USD is about 7 Yuan and that's how much it should dump for any hope of competition (which will also not happen because they tend to keep the interest rates high to keep the exchange rate artificially high).

What we see these days like the second line of your comment above is meant to strengthen the domestic economy and keep the economy healthy while the global market becomes volatile due to recession (less overall foreign demand in short term).

China has set a modest economic growth target of around 5% for 2023, with the country's top leadership avoiding any significant incentives to accelerate the recovery.

About this writes Bloomberg.

It is noted that China's GDP growth target for this year is about 5%, which is the lowest for a quarter of a century. This was announced by Premier Li Keqiang at the beginning of the annual session of the legislative assembly of the country.

Last year, Beijing had expected the economy to grow at 5.5%. But the actual growth rate of 3% was the slowest in decades, with the exception of the covid 2020, when officials abandoned the target altogether.

Achieving a growth rate of around 5% this year would mean the Chinese economy would grow at an average of about 4.6% over the four years from 2020 to 2023, one unit below the average annual growth rate of 6.7% between 2015 and 2019.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-05/china-sets-modest-growth-target-as-economic-risks-persist


... and this is just the beginning , but official Beijing is already forced to openly publish such data. Knowing the habit of manipulating and embellishing the situation, we can assume that the real situation is even worse

A Recession means that a country's economy is slowing down to a point that it has negative growth year on year, a technical recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

That definitely makes businesses start laying off a percentage of the labor force - making unemployment surge, and if unemployment surges - demand goes down for both domestic and imported products/services.

Inflation won't be good too, because if prices for goods and services continue to be high, then people's savings will run out and eventually that will cause a recession.


But zoomed out long-term, it might be impossible for China to support their economy through domestic demand. Why? Because their population is dying.

Exactly. Population is simply collapsing in China, with the fertility rate dipping below 1 per woman. This means that each new generation will be less than half of the size of the previous one. For example, if there are 1000 people in the grandparent's generation, then it gets reduced to 450-500 in the parent's generation. And in the next generation, there will be only 200-250 people. And in the long term this means that each working age citizen need to support 4-5 elderly people. Even in other developed nations such as Russia and Japan, the birth rate is much higher when compared to China. 

kinda funny because
US 5-9yo: 5.9%
US 10-14yo: 6.2%

china 5-9yo: 6.29%
china 10-14yo: 6.36%
seems china's young people are more populated

US 30-34yo: 7%
US 35-39yo: 6.7%
US 40-44yo: 6.5%

china 30-34yo: 8.09%
china 35-39yo: 7.61%
china 40-44yo: 6.81%

seems to me china has prime working age people 30-45 more than the US


US 65-69yo: 5.7%
US 70-74yo: 5.1%
US 75-79yo: 3.4%
US 80-84yo: 2.1%
US 85-89yo: 1.2%
US 90-94yo: 0.6%
US 95 +yo: 0.2%
total % over 65: 18.3%

china 65-69yo: 5.54%
china 70-74yo: 4.07%
china 75-79yo: 2.49%   
china 80-84yo: 1.55%
china 85-89yo: 0.87%
china 90-94yo: 0.3%
china 95+yo: 0.06%
total % over 65: 14.88%

yep US has more % of people over 65yo

i really do wonder where windfury gets his information from

It's not supposed to "fully" support Chinese economy, it's only one piece of a much bigger puzzle. China is the strategic economy partner of 120+ countries. As I said their exports to the world is massive and it is still increasing.

Besides their ~1.5 billion population isn't "dying" just because birth rates have come down a little!

frankandbeans trying to look smart and trying to gaslight people again by comparing Chinese and U.S. population demographics, then making, what he defintely knows, is a false conclusion.

You're a mere troll frankyandbeans, and more and more people are starting to see that. Everyone needs to look at your trust-rating to see what you're doing. It's not working anymore. Some people have learned, the hard way, by listening to you, and other people have become smarter by not listening to you.


Yet they're "going to kill" the U.S. Dollar and the West, the biggest consumers of manufactured goods made in China. Plus exports are massive and increasing only because the demand is still increasing. China should be supporting their western counterparts.


"A little" today is projected to be a big concern three decades from now.

firstly china no longer has the "one child" policy so expect more children per parent
also you used the 15-24 stat yet average age of first time parents is 27+.. not 20
yep most chinese 15-24 are too busy in school, college, university to be settling down popping out babies

i do laugh that you emphasised the 15-24group but ignored the 25-34group who are the main group popping out babies this decade

so by the time the 30-45 get to retirement age the younger populations would reach working age

especially since the one child policy ended and the covid interval of anti-social behaviour has ended

have you ever wondered how china still operates after millenias where america is failing after only a few hundred years

..
if you want an explanation for the lack of 15-24 year old. remember they were born 1999-2008 when the government were really pushing the one child policy.. which no longer applies.

the lack of 15-24 is not due to the economy of 2008-2023

The one-child policy worked when needed. It worked when most of the population did not yet live in cities, and they had strong traditions of “making more heirs”, for many reasons - both low survival rate and the desire to provide themselves with many breadwinners in their old age. This is normal practice for countries where the population is quite poor. This was the case before the economic breakthrough in China. Nowadays there are many middle class people in China, and they themselves do not see the point in having very many children. This means that the majority of Chinese are abandoning large families, which is already having and in the future will have a strong impact on the demographic situation in the country.

yes centuries ago poor countries would birth many kids due to low survival rate. same went for africa too.
the one child policy was enacted when better medical facilities occured that allowed better survival rate which then caused population booms. which the one child policy THEN enacted to control population growth.

and yes now that they have seen decades of low birthing and the sentiment of not needing to birth several children has calmed down, the one child policy is relaxed. we wont seen parents giving birth to 10 kids. it will settle to a 2-3kid average once people start planning becoming parents
(one child policy relaxed in 2017 to allow 2 kids and only relaxed in 2021 to allow 3 kids) so generationally people 25-40yo are still in the mindset of 1 kid is the ethical norm
it will be the next generation that will see the freedom to have 2-3 kids as normal and ethical

this new culture has been delayed due to the covid saga. but things will speed up

but with all that said. the US already has more % of elderly people reliant on the young already. compared to china. and yet the US is not going to have a boom of extra births because they were never hindered for the last few decades

---

i still laugh at windfurys 2 chinese failed notions..
a. that china is wasting more money on real estate than america(per capita)
b. that the chinese elderly are going to cause more struggles than american elderly(% of population)

But the fact that China did have a one-child policy for a long time and then a two-child policy, that did slow down their birth rate as shown in the data.

Plus the other fact that the 15 - 24 year old age demographic being smaller shows that the country will experience lower birth rates, lower than what they're currently having today once 15 - 24 age demographic get older and start having children, and not all of them will have children.

China ended the one child policy in 2016! It's been now 8 years since then!
Look at the statistics and articles about it:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-fertility-rate-drops-record-low-109-2022-state-media-2023-08-15/
This is from their own sources!!!

And if you're comparing China with the US
The US population grew by 394,053
China's population decreased by 850,000
The US had a birth rate of 11.0/1000 , China had 6.77/1000
USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09.
Should I add that 24 000 chinese tried to enter the US illegally while.., u know it already!

As for the topic :
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3246908/chinas-home-developers-suffer-further-sales-skid-end-miserable-2023-2024-offers-slim-hope-amid


And this is a newspaper owned by the CCP, so probably the numbers are in reverse order, maybe closer to 64.3 percent!

first of all
the prime age of people having kids is not 15yo. meaning they have since 7yo been told its ok to have more then 1 kid. setting their moral compass
the 15yo are not the demograph currently having kids
instead the 27yo+ people that are the actual demograph having kids were drilled into them up until their 19th birthday to say they should only consider having 1 kid, so in their minds. its set as a moral compass to only have one kid even if the rules changed
thus their mentality is that they are planning on one kid becasue its wht they have been thinking of when they were younger

its going to take time for the people that were told as kids its ok to have more then one kid. to actually reach the point of settling down to start pushing out kids

things have also been delayed due to the social distancing, where by adults have not been mingling to find a partner to settle down with
so again its going to take time for people to form relationships and have an agreed mindset within the relationship that they want more then one kid

oh and you might want to check that america have more people in immigration detention camps than china
and thats with all the cries of Uyghurs in chinese detention count

yep when fox news pretend china is cramped with uyghurs. america has more detainees per populous than china..so where are the cries that america are locking up more people

Kill? No. Weaken? Definitely.
After all you don't kill a cash cow, it would be like saying US wants to kill the Saudi dictatorship! This is exactly why US pretty much ignored when Saudi regime brutally murdered the Washington Post journalist by chopping him into little pieces and dissolving his remains in acid bath to send a message!!!

That's what US is to China too. A cash cow. That's more than 300 million people who would rely on Chinese products as the imports keep rising while domestic production keeps shrinking and shutting down.
This is exactly why even though China heavily dumped the US treasury bonds they were bag holding but they never dumped it all (dumped about $250 billion of it which is roughly a quarter of what they bag hold).

Plus it's a trend that might have a tendency to continue unless China's incentivization of reproduction through tax cuts work.

It's probably also why the United States is very confident that China would never dare fight them in an open war on the battlefield because it would make their recovery more difficult.

So don't mind frankandbeans, he merely wants a debate on anything I say/post. But how could he gaslight everyone if the facts are available in the internet.


China's inflation is low enough, why don't turn on the Yuan money-printer and let it go BRRRRR.


Why would China want to weaken the currency of their cash cow? That would only work against them, no?

real estate in china that continues to grow and the price is expensive is in perfectur hongkong this means one of the provinces or special regions.
and the economy in Hong Kong is growing rapidly. whether because of the former British colony or what is certain there is more developed than in mainland China.

there is facts and data on the internet. but you cherry pick without understanding the context.
for instance even stompix done it too
"USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09."

he didnt use the context that years prior US had higher rate
he didnt use the context that years prior china had lower rate

meaning US is on the decline and china is on the rise

also windfury makes the mistake that he thinks 15yo's are popping out 2-3 kids before the parent reaches their 22nd birthday
he doesnt realise the teachings people have as kids about family planning mean when they reach adulthood they are ingrained with the notions they were taught at childhood. so it will take the current young generation of preteens who are now being told its ok to have 2-3 kids to grow up and settle down and when they reach the average age of parenting (27) then you will see more of a rise

in short.. the change of law wont manifest into family planning ideals of  population growth just yet in china

the reason all of this is important and relevant to this realestate topic is that developers planned on buying land in 2016+ as a direct result of family planning laws changing but didnt equate the delay of actual people forming relationships(covid social distancing) and the attitudes ingrained in the 22-27+ group that would have been popping kids out.. (27yo's popping kids out in 2017, 22yo(as of 2017) popping kids out in 2022 when they reach 27)
which again as said, those that were 22+ in 2017 are still ingrained in one child family planning. so not planning on bursting out a football team in the next couple years

---

the very notion that windfury thinks that the kids that were 8-9yo in 2016, (thus turning 15-16yo now) whom do have the teachings that 2-3 kid are fine/normal/moral/lawful. are suddenly the ones becoming parents now to lift the population... he doesnt realise they are just 15yo now.. china still has family morals to not get pregnant out of wedlock and such..

i simply laugh at windfury where he thinks china should be at a 2-3 kid fertility rate based on 15yo's today popping out kids this year

The whole point is that:
- China without technology, money and buyers from the USA will go downhill again very quickly, because... its economy is STRONGLY DEPENDENT on the listed entities.
- The USA will easily survive without Chinese goods, because... The USA has a dollar, for which any manufacturer will produce products of the required quality and in the required volume.
At the same time, “bad and poor China” will be an excellent argument for allocating new funds to the military and other budgets.

China can theoretically begin a real confrontation with the United States and try to weaken them economically only if it finds an alternative sales market, technology supplier and investor. But, as you understand, this is still in the realm of fantasy

If China's real estate sector crashed the impact on the world economy would be significant. China is one of the largest economies & a major player in the global real estate market. A crash in its real estate sector would lead to a decline in property values, construction activity & investment. This would have ripple effects on other sectors such as banking, manufacturing & commodities. China is a major consumer of raw materials so a slowdown in its economy would negatively affect commodity prices & global trade. A big crash in China's real estate sector would have a substantial impact on the world economy so hopefully it doesn’t happen too bad.

And in what alternate reality did that happen?
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN


And in what other different reality is that happening?
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2022&locations=CN-US&start=2010


How do you explain that not only there wasn't a pop but the number is even lower compared to the one child policy time?

You're ignoring a lot of things in your assumption as always, you treat countries like simple statistics abased on your own views, completely ignoring what previous policies have done and the mindset of mainland china. Everyone, including the population, waited for this policy change with hope, it's in their culture to have a boy child first, or at least a boy if one kid, that's why it was expected millions who only had a daughter to try to have a boy kid, millions in their 22-35 age gap, well it didn't happen because they realized the cost of rising a second child is just out of their reach so the miracle didn't materialize!

But of course, you're not going to believe me so, a simple question, why did the chinese main statistics center stopped posting fertility rates for 4 years after 2017, the first year of policy change and all the data was coming from regional government till they couldn't hide it anymore?
When China or any other country cancels the release of a basic indicator, you know it's so bad they don't even want to talk about it!


They've done it already though regional government debt!
Local government debt in China is $12 trillions, they printed money like mad and hid it under a ton of other statistics, but slowly as things crumble and state companies go bankrupt the pile of money pumped like there was no tomorrow comes in plain sight!

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/China-s-trillion-dollar-dilemma-of-local-government-hidden-debt


As usual, when things are bad, they stop talking or releasing any data about it!
Imagine the outrage in Europe if any govemermnt wouldn't release data about the debt of the town halls, regions  or state companies?
When one tiny thing hidden comes to light there is like a war erupted in the media, when it's china...well, it's china!

Well, it's a war. A war over power and hegemony. In this war different sides are targeting each other by exploiting the weaknesses and taking away other side's strengths. Over the past 10-20 years others have been taking that power away from the US regime, little by little.

For example China's weakness is its massive population and the dissatisfactions that exists in every society and of course the existing dictatorship in China; while US strength is its cold war expertise where they can inflame a society when they put their efforts into it. This is where we see sudden outbursts of riots in China for no reason by people who have no demands and have no idea why they're rioting! lol

On the other hand US weakness and interestingly its strength at the same time is its economy. Despite US economy being massive and dollar being strong, it is all too fragile because all that "empire" depends on dollar remaining the world reserve currency that is used globally, is used in the ongoing scam known as Petrodollar, etc.
Meanwhile China's strength is its economy, super cheap labor and the fact that they keep their fiat exchange rate low. So this is how they hit US back.

For example by keeping their currency's exchange rate low, they keep production super cheap and deepen that trade deficit I pointed out earlier which hurts or even kills domestic production elsewhere including United States hence making those countries more dependent on imports from China which will then help Chinese economy and their further rise to power!

The result is also in other aspects like the fact that a weaker US economy means the US regime will have to stop or at least decrease its "overseas adventures" including but not limited to destabilization of East Asia and the seas around China. That will also help China expand and rise to more power!

---

It may be interesting to know that the fragile yet massive economy of United States has been in the same situation before.

In the 80's US economy was in the same mess as it is today with the increased energy prices, inflation, recession caused by the increased interest rates enforced by Reagan administration, industries losing money being forced to fire thousands of people, industries shutting down, and so on.

US dollar was artificially strengthened back then too because of the increased interest rates but that causes recession (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478887.0) and recession kills domestic economy and production.
They were too deep to think about decreasing interest rates or weaken dollar themselves because that would've killed US economy in an entirely different way (same as today).

The difference however was that at that time US economy was competing inside G5 (ie. France, UK, Germany, Japan and US itself). For example the Japanese Yen exchange rate was too low compared to US dollar so Japanese products were cheaper and US economy was suffering in that competition (just like it is today against Chinese cheap products).
The difference here is that the first two are US allies and obey what US orders and the second two are occupied countries that were defeated in WW2 and have no choice but to obey US orders.
Then came the Plaza Accord which is to put simply US ordering these countries to manipulate their currency exchange rates and bring it up against US dollar to make their products more expensive compared to what is produced inside US hence give US economy the chance to compete and most importantly to survive.

In my opinion Japan took the worst of the Plaza Accord as it led to a big bubble in Japanese economy that was followed by a terrible crash. But the final result helped US economy survive on borrowed time.
This time however, US is going against China that is not obeying US commands and has so far refused to strengthen Yuan against dollar despite all US pressure and instead they keep weakening it to continue having cheap production!

Sorry it got too long but I thought it is some interesting points to raise here.
The war hasn't ended and I don't think we can predict the outcome but so far it doesn't look good for US dollar in the long run.

though you foolishly didnt use fertility nor birth stats.. ill ignore your mistake.. its self evident where you went wrong
(you used a stat that included census data of population+ death stats, like elderly excessive deaths due to covid)
ill just say this and let you figure it out

anyway back to the point.
from 2016 onwards many developers accelerated residential construction under the future prospect of population growth=future demand. they too were foolish to think that people will be popping out football teams of kid instantly at 2017 and via the very young fertile who had not been indoctrinated into old one child policies..
but they got it wrong. they built too early, the acceleration has not kicked in yet
then with covid was a double hit

however that said china is not in the worse situation on the planet per capita

I'll just say that I'll let you figure it out why that website has already the 2023 numbers
Well, since admitting you're wrong and that you don't read stuff is impossible for you it has to a bit woth the source:
https://population.un.org/wpp/


So, you're quoting projections.

Now, for the other ridiculous thing, you claim that my 1.09 is wrong as it's fertility rate and you show me :

Just lol: https://archive.ph/mOiTH


Enough real data, not projections for you?

What we need to realize is every place where the number of people are decreasing would have a real-estate crash. It would mostly be seen in Eastern Asia and Eastern Europe but might follow on Western Europe if they controlled the illegal migration.
Real-estate has been and is a bubble in many parts of the world and it is causing homelessness. It would eventually burst but it would be better if done in a controlled manner. Countries should learn from the problems in China and spend more on productive sector and it's people than helping inflate the housing prices.

when you use western media outlet as your source
whom they use a media outlet as their source, you have already fallen into the trap of the media circle jerk echo chamber of confirmation bias and bad journalism
(research NBD many occurrences of false news and lawsuits)
you should try researching more and not digging your hole deeper

also the source i got my info from did not use projections for historic data, it used thousands of population surveys from within china for historical to current..
the projections were future numbers for upto year 2100 which have nothing to do with the historic data i mentioned. and i did not mention nor reference future numbers from that site

thus your counter argument about projections is empty and void

..
as for windfury assertions that 15yo are fertile and should have been popping out 2-3 kids by now.. he just does not understand context of real world society

there are many many first person prospective from people living in china that state that even young adults are still in the mindset of the teachings of one child policy and it will still take time for parents to be inclined to have 2 kids based on education that 2 kids is fine 2016+
and 3 kids is fine 2021+
because it takes a generation for pre-teens in elementary/primary school being told about family planning to then grow up and reach the typical parenting age of 27 to then start having 2-3 kids.
..
now getting back to the point. fertility rate has actually increased but due to many factors i have mentioned not as fast as some presumed.
(numbers are higher then 1.09 but lower then 2-3)
im not just talking about windfury. i am talking about chinese real estate developers that took the 2016 and 2021 news or relaxing child policy and over developed property before demand flourished..

in short 2016-2030 are not the years where chinese households are going to be demanding a 3-4 bedroom apartment/homes
chinese real estate developers jumped the gun. much like some other idiots

that all said..
america has other population and housing problems far bigger than chinas problems

Ad Hominem. You're attacking the source of the information instead of the debate that the information presents, which has been confirmed not by just one source but multiple sources. You should prove that all that data is wrong, which you truly can't because China does have a reduction in reproduction rates and fertility rates. It's in the data, and it's a FACT.

What China should probably start doing is incentivize young couples who have more than two children with tax-cuts and other forms of government subsidies.

Eh ..franky1, you know when numbers are involved he usually quotes the wrong ones and then he throws a fit when pointing that out. I got used to!

But you solution won't work either, because...well it was tested and failed!
It's pretty much the same thing as in the west, the cost for raising wo children are high and China has a another problem, it is treated in the west as a joke and most of it is meme material when you have kids in the 2nd grade being prepared for 6 paths in their career life but it's a highly realistic thing there and unlike 1980 and 2000 when this was still achievable with minimum education right now the costs in a far more competitive close to dystopian system are nuts.

I've read a page on this , I till try to find it again when I had time that compared the madness of getting you kid in a certain school/high school/collage to the animalistic behaviour of the strangest of the cubs, but it that case it was about the one getting the most food in here is about the parents knowing they won't ever have food for two or three so choosing to have just one!

As the wages increase and things get more expensive the cost of raising a child in the major cities outclasses the one in the western world,  there are clinics that charge you $15k for a birth and $40k  per month for the postpartum period, there are repot of people paying $20 000 to have their address temporary moved to another district so their kid can enlist in some different school, one can't even grasps the madness that's actually happening there.
Remember we're talking about a country that's still heavily enforcing the hukou system.

when stompix uses number, you then go to their sources explainer page and see they use guestimate of previous/current years

anyway to the point of this topic
china was low last decade and real estate jumped the gun after 2016 and again in 2021 thinking there will be sudden rush for 2-3 bedroom apartments..
however they didnt realise 15-29 are not the demograph popping out multiple kids. they have yet to even date and settledown de-program themselves from family planning indoctrination they got as kids themselves
(15-19 now are fertile but not even ready for family)
(20-24 now are fertile but covid disrupted finding a partner, and 4 years ago were not ready to settle down)
(25-29 now are fertile may have met a partner but still indoctrinated to old teachings of 1 child policy)

its those that were 7-14 in 2016 that now think 2 kids are the norm
meaning at best 19 in 2021 (but they were not ready to settle when many apartments were build in 2021)
meaning at best 12 in 2021 (but they not fertile/ready to date/settle/start family when many apartments were build in 2021)

the reaction of the 2016 2 child policy wont show results until at best a 14yo in 2016 is 27 .. meaning 2029
the reaction of the 2021 3 child policy wont show results until at best a 14yo in 2021 is 27 .. meaning 2034
now this means china WILL increase population just not yet

however america. with its traps of social media trend promotions of:
treating romantic courting rituals of meeting people in a bar as creepy/stalky/harassment
treating workplace romance rituals of meeting partner in work as creepy/stalky/harassment
treating the gender dynamics as reasons to hate, envy, offend, reject, oppose,  the opposite sex
"independence" means not needing a partner and a single life is better
bi-sexualism and gay trending means less opposite sex partnerships
the non binary of 'there are no real women anyone can be woman, so date a birthed-guy or your a misogynist'
remote working, online socialising and dating. to avoid physical contact
men advice: "live with parents until 25-30, save money"
women advice "dont date a mommies boy still living with parents, date the 0.01% bachelors you will never find"

all lead to americas decline of family planning in this and next decade
(im middle age in a healthy male-female relationship born and raised and ancestors in western culture.. but even i can recognise the wests failures)

in short. china real estate built 8 years too soon but will play catch up
in short america is loosing its footing and going backwards (cant stay at the top forever, only direction is down)

the % of money needed to avert chinese real estate disaster is less % of gdp than the % of GDP needed to prop up and subsidise the US real estate market

You're right, plus because a falling birth rate, which also leads to an aging population AND which actually puts more tension and demand on the younger age demographic to support the older generation through more taxing/pension schemes, WHICH would also mean that they should work harder/longer hours WOULD cause birth rates and fertility rates to fall further.

China has shot themselves in the foot, and an economic recession now would definitely place them on a harder path to recovery. They should probably turn on their money-printer and risk inflation.

Oh Franky what happened to your data?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/17/china-population-decline-accelerates-as-birthrate-hits-record-low
and the CCP newspaper:
https://archive.ph/DVLuG


But but but...your projections were showing these growing!  ;D
Do explain to me how having 5% less babies in a year rises the fertility rate!

The thing is done for, there will be no increase in population whatsoever, every single country is going under, it's that just China thought it wasn't following the trend:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?end=2021&locations=CN-TH-VN-KR-KP-JP-ID-PH&start=1970

It's a global trend, once Africa aligns itself to it and it won't be more than a decade then it's the time to drop any shares you have in companies that produce toys diapers and baby formula!



They can't turn it it on, it has been on for decades, just because the govemermnt isn't printing money it doesn't mean it's not printing debt for it's regional governments.  There will be no magical recovery, it's just the thing that "China grew old before it got rich", don't know who coined this but he was spot on!

i still laugh
funny how you use "the guardian"


funny how you ignore things like how covid meant that new relationships are not forming to have their first kid
funny how you ignore all context

funny how instead of now quoting births per female. you are instead using births per population

funny how you dont realise how the demograph that are in the "settled, married ready to have kids" age range.. are the 27yo+
meaning born in mid/late 90's and brought up  as millennials indoctrinated that when they become adults they will only have 1 kid

women become infertile or not really family planning after 40
meaning born early 1980's
their parents would have had many kids but their kids(80's kids) indoctrinated to grow up with one kid

you need to look at the full context
did you know that in the 1980s (83-88) there was a mini boom of births per 1000 that went from 21-24
meaning 14% more females born in 1988 compared to 1983
this results those females growing up to ~30yo-35yo in 2018-2023 outpaced the single digit decline because there was a double digit increase in the age group of females ready to have a family

this explains the fertility rate of 2020-2023 i mentioned a few posts ago. and this (its not a projection)
https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/18/3713N.png

im using stats from source. you are using western media conclusions based on eastern media conclusions without understanding the underlying data

..
the real estate market in 2016-2021+ took the relaxation of "one child policy" to pre-build homes thinking there would be instant baby booms.. but they didnt take things(like you) into context of WHEN a action causes a reaction to a demography

you really need to take the source numbers involving actual females of family planning age(27-40) and historical data of THEIR rates when THEY were born. to the extrapolate why there was female to child rates that went up in recent years.. to explain the current situation ..

..
as for the future.
the females that are going to have 2-3 kids are still college age or yoounger so not settling down yet

sidenote:
dont use [births per male-incels+old people+infertile women+kids]+fertile women as the numbers wont correspond to nature of the female demograph family planning, and is instead [warped] by the other demographs

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3248695/chinas-population-falls-208-million-14097-billion-2023-births-tumble-adding-demographic-concerns

South China Morning Post , owned by Alibaba Group that got axed and taken over by the CCP.
You try to laugh Franky but it's not your laugh! I know real data that proves you wrong it makes you bank your head against every brick in the great wall of china.

Oh wait, how about we go straight to the source:
https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html
Bang bang bang!



Lol, so you don't see the slippery slope here?
If those got indoctrinated like this how are the kids nowadays not be indoctrinated since everyone around still has just 1 kid despite the laws not stopping them?


Why are you not mentioning your source? Because you know that's a projection!
How the hell is 2024 CURRENT and not a PROJECTION!

And you till haven't explained how half 5% decrease in births is making the fertility rate go up!  ;D

the 2 child policy came out in 2016
the 3 child policy came out in 2021

so the kids indocrinated with 2 child policy. are the ones who have the "sex education" chats at school about family planning
this "sex education" is like 8yo-14yo age range

so if someone was 14 in 2016.. guess what age they are now.. yep 24.. but.. the average age a women starts settling down to have first child is 27
so even the earliest 2 child policy educated child wont be popping out double kids on average for another 3 years

so if someone was 14 in 2021.. guess what age they are now.. yep 17.. but.. the average age a women starts settling down to have first child is 27
so even the earliest 3 child policy educated child wont be popping out triple kids on average for another 10 years

get it yet
this was my point to windfury. he thinks 14yo in 2016 were going to instantly pop out twins on their 15th birthday.. and you too seem to not get the context of understanding data, so you too question "were are all the rise in birth rates" to 2-3 kids


as for your continued use of the X birth per 1000 populous
did you know that the impractical use of that is what makes you look silly
with that 1000 number, it includes old women(infertile), men of all ages, fertile but not settled young adult female. female kids
it warps the numbers to alter the real numbers hidden within of actual births per mother

heck here is one thing even your links highlight..
the disparity of male vs females

the male population was 720.32 million, and the female population was 689.35 million
more men per populous
however even this simplification is not justified explanation. because there is further muffling of numbers to create fake narrative
such as how women outlive men. whereby there are more elderly(not fertile) woman compared to male equivalent, which morths the numbers per populus of the actual women whom are in the settling down to start family demograph


i feel you and windy just got upset that i compared US problems and you didnt like how i disparaged USA and so without thinking you just grabbed the first detail you could find that showed a negative number without understanding how it relates to the understanding, meaning, context of real world causality of the numbers you promote

heck you even doubled down about overall population decline..
um yea. guess you forgot about covid and old people dying.. totally unassociated with fertile women of the age range settling down to start a family, yet again

so here we are again
of just the women without your silly extra added data to muffle the numbers. the birth rate per year is increasing
just not at the rate real estate developers hoped for 2016+
women are still in the 1.6-1.7 children per mother stage not YET the 2.4+ rate the real estate developers were hoping for a birth/real estate boom 2016+


...
by the way i am using data from females born in the 80's,90's millenia to explain why the number did not boom to 2.4+ in 2016
by the way i am using data from females born in the millenia, 10's to explain why the number is not yet ready to boom to 2.4+ yet
by the way i am using data from females born in the 90's millenia, to explain why the number is still rising in the 1.6-1.7 rate


its you that has muffled the numbers, not expressed understanding of the numbers and then used silly numbers to just promote "china bad US not so much"

---

now with me explaining the CONTEXT of why there is no sudden boom of families wanting 2-3 bedrooms this decade, so real estate jumped the gun in the last few years.. the amount that china's government need to give loans/grants/compensation to stabalise the real estate market is actually small incomparison to % of GDP
unlike the US housing to % of GDP the US is spending