China's real-estate sector is NOT doing well, it might bring whole economy down

[Wind_FURY]

The above-mentioned developments are clearly reflected in the Chinese age pyramid. The age cohorts between 30 and 39 years are the last two larger age cohorts. The cohorts between 15 and 24, which now enter childbearing age, are decisively smaller, which will have a negative effect on the number of births in the coming decade. When looking at a gender distribution of the population pyramid, a considerable gender gap among the younger age cohorts becomes visible, leaving even less room for growth in birth figures

firstly china no longer has the "one child" policy so expect more children per parent
also you used the 15-24 stat yet average age of first time parents is 27+.. not 20
yep most chinese 15-24 are too busy in school, college, university to be settling down popping out babies

i do laugh that you emphasised the 15-24group but ignored the 25-34group who are the main group popping out babies this decade

so by the time the 30-45 get to retirement age the younger populations would reach working age

especially since the one child policy ended and the covid interval of anti-social behaviour has ended

have you ever wondered how china still operates after millenias where america is failing after only a few hundred years

..
if you want an explanation for the lack of 15-24 year old. remember they were born 1999-2008 when the government were really pushing the one child policy.. which no longer applies.

the lack of 15-24 is not due to the economy of 2008-2023

But the fact that China did have a one-child policy for a long time and then a two-child policy, that did slow down their birth rate as shown in the data.

Plus the other fact that the 15 - 24 year old age demographic being smaller shows that the country will experience lower birth rates, lower than what they're currently having today once 15 - 24 age demographic get older and start having children, and not all of them will have children.

[1714770542]

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[1714770542]

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[stompix]

firstly china no longer has the "one child" policy so expect more children per parent

China ended the one child policy in 2016! It's been now 8 years since then!
Look at the statistics and articles about it:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-fertility-rate-drops-record-low-109-2022-state-media-2023-08-15/
This is from their own sources!!!

And if you're comparing China with the US
The US population grew by 394,053
China's population decreased by 850,000
The US had a birth rate of 11.0/1000 , China had 6.77/1000
USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09.
Should I add that 24 000 chinese tried to enter the US illegally while.., u know it already!

As for the topic :
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3246908/chinas-home-developers-suffer-further-sales-skid-end-miserable-2023-2024-offers-slim-hope-amid

China’s top 100 developers in terms of sales reported that December transaction value dropped 34.6 per cent year on year

And this is a newspaper owned by the CCP, so probably the numbers are in reverse order, maybe closer to 64.3 percent!

[franky1]

firstly china no longer has the "one child" policy so expect more children per parent

China ended the one child policy in 2016! It's been now 8 years since then!
Look at the statistics and articles about it:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-fertility-rate-drops-record-low-109-2022-state-media-2023-08-15/
This is from their own sources!!!

And if you're comparing China with the US
The US population grew by 394,053
China's population decreased by 850,000
The US had a birth rate of 11.0/1000 , China had 6.77/1000
USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09.
Should I add that 24 000 chinese tried to enter the US illegally while.., u know it already!

As for the topic :
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3246908/chinas-home-developers-suffer-further-sales-skid-end-miserable-2023-2024-offers-slim-hope-amid

China’s top 100 developers in terms of sales reported that December transaction value dropped 34.6 per cent year on year

And this is a newspaper owned by the CCP, so probably the numbers are in reverse order, maybe closer to 64.3 percent!

first of all
the prime age of people having kids is not 15yo. meaning they have since 7yo been told its ok to have more then 1 kid. setting their moral compass
the 15yo are not the demograph currently having kids
instead the 27yo+ people that are the actual demograph having kids were drilled into them up until their 19th birthday to say they should only consider having 1 kid, so in their minds. its set as a moral compass to only have one kid even if the rules changed
thus their mentality is that they are planning on one kid becasue its wht they have been thinking of when they were younger

its going to take time for the people that were told as kids its ok to have more then one kid. to actually reach the point of settling down to start pushing out kids

things have also been delayed due to the social distancing, where by adults have not been mingling to find a partner to settle down with
so again its going to take time for people to form relationships and have an agreed mindset within the relationship that they want more then one kid

oh and you might want to check that america have more people in immigration detention camps than china
and thats with all the cries of Uyghurs in chinese detention count

yep when fox news pretend china is cramped with uyghurs. america has more detainees per populous than china..so where are the cries that america are locking up more people

[pooya87]

Yet they're "going to kill" the U.S. Dollar and the West, the biggest consumers of manufactured goods made in China. Plus exports are massive and increasing only because the demand is still increasing. China should be supporting their western counterparts.

Kill? No. Weaken? Definitely.
After all you don't kill a cash cow, it would be like saying US wants to kill the Saudi dictatorship! This is exactly why US pretty much ignored when Saudi regime brutally murdered the Washington Post journalist by chopping him into little pieces and dissolving his remains in acid bath to send a message!!!

That's what US is to China too. A cash cow. That's more than 300 million people who would rely on Chinese products as the imports keep rising while domestic production keeps shrinking and shutting down.
This is exactly why even though China heavily dumped the US treasury bonds they were bag holding but they never dumped it all (dumped about $250 billion of it which is roughly a quarter of what they bag hold).

[Wind_FURY]

firstly china no longer has the "one child" policy so expect more children per parent

China ended the one child policy in 2016! It's been now 8 years since then!
Look at the statistics and articles about it:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-fertility-rate-drops-record-low-109-2022-state-media-2023-08-15/
This is from their own sources!!!

And if you're comparing China with the US
The US population grew by 394,053
China's population decreased by 850,000
The US had a birth rate of 11.0/1000 , China had 6.77/1000
USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09.
Should I add that 24 000 chinese tried to enter the US illegally while.., u know it already!

Plus it's a trend that might have a tendency to continue unless China's incentivization of reproduction through tax cuts work.

It's probably also why the United States is very confident that China would never dare fight them in an open war on the battlefield because it would make their recovery more difficult.

So don't mind frankandbeans, he merely wants a debate on anything I say/post. But how could he gaslight everyone if the facts are available in the internet.

As for the topic :
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3246908/chinas-home-developers-suffer-further-sales-skid-end-miserable-2023-2024-offers-slim-hope-amid

China’s top 100 developers in terms of sales reported that December transaction value dropped 34.6 per cent year on year

And this is a newspaper owned by the CCP, so probably the numbers are in reverse order, maybe closer to 64.3 percent!

China's inflation is low enough, why don't turn on the Yuan money-printer and let it go BRRRRR.

Yet they're "going to kill" the U.S. Dollar and the West, the biggest consumers of manufactured goods made in China. Plus exports are massive and increasing only because the demand is still increasing. China should be supporting their western counterparts.

Kill? No. Weaken? Definitely.
After all you don't kill a cash cow, it would be like saying US wants to kill the Saudi dictatorship! This is exactly why US pretty much ignored when Saudi regime brutally murdered the Washington Post journalist by chopping him into little pieces and dissolving his remains in acid bath to send a message!!!

That's what US is to China too. A cash cow. That's more than 300 million people who would rely on Chinese products as the imports keep rising while domestic production keeps shrinking and shutting down.
This is exactly why even though China heavily dumped the US treasury bonds they were bag holding but they never dumped it all (dumped about $250 billion of it which is roughly a quarter of what they bag hold).

Why would China want to weaken the currency of their cash cow? That would only work against them, no?

[cakravothy]

real estate in china that continues to grow and the price is expensive is in perfectur hongkong this means one of the provinces or special regions.
and the economy in Hong Kong is growing rapidly. whether because of the former British colony or what is certain there is more developed than in mainland China.

[franky1]

firstly china no longer has the "one child" policy so expect more children per parent

USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09.
Should I add that 24 000 chinese tried to enter the US illegally while.., u know it already!

So don't mind frankandbeans, he merely wants a debate on anything I say/post. But how could he gaslight everyone if the facts are available in the internet.

there is facts and data on the internet. but you cherry pick without understanding the context.
for instance even stompix done it too
"USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09."

he didnt use the context that years prior US had higher rate
he didnt use the context that years prior china had lower rate

meaning US is on the decline and china is on the rise

also windfury makes the mistake that he thinks 15yo's are popping out 2-3 kids before the parent reaches their 22nd birthday
he doesnt realise the teachings people have as kids about family planning mean when they reach adulthood they are ingrained with the notions they were taught at childhood. so it will take the current young generation of preteens who are now being told its ok to have 2-3 kids to grow up and settle down and when they reach the average age of parenting (27) then you will see more of a rise

in short.. the change of law wont manifest into family planning ideals of  population growth just yet in china

the reason all of this is important and relevant to this realestate topic is that developers planned on buying land in 2016+ as a direct result of family planning laws changing but didnt equate the delay of actual people forming relationships(covid social distancing) and the attitudes ingrained in the 22-27+ group that would have been popping kids out.. (27yo's popping kids out in 2017, 22yo(as of 2017) popping kids out in 2022 when they reach 27)
which again as said, those that were 22+ in 2017 are still ingrained in one child family planning. so not planning on bursting out a football team in the next couple years

the very notion that windfury thinks that the kids that were 8-9yo in 2016, (thus turning 15-16yo now) whom do have the teachings that 2-3 kid are fine/normal/moral/lawful. are suddenly the ones becoming parents now to lift the population... he doesnt realise they are just 15yo now.. china still has family morals to not get pregnant out of wedlock and such..

i simply laugh at windfury where he thinks china should be at a 2-3 kid fertility rate based on 15yo's today popping out kids this year

[DrBeer]

Yet they're "going to kill" the U.S. Dollar and the West, the biggest consumers of manufactured goods made in China. Plus exports are massive and increasing only because the demand is still increasing. China should be supporting their western counterparts.

Kill? No. Weaken? Definitely.
After all you don't kill a cash cow, it would be like saying US wants to kill the Saudi dictatorship! This is exactly why US pretty much ignored when Saudi regime brutally murdered the Washington Post journalist by chopping him into little pieces and dissolving his remains in acid bath to send a message!!!

That's what US is to China too. A cash cow. That's more than 300 million people who would rely on Chinese products as the imports keep rising while domestic production keeps shrinking and shutting down.
This is exactly why even though China heavily dumped the US treasury bonds they were bag holding but they never dumped it all (dumped about $250 billion of it which is roughly a quarter of what they bag hold).

The whole point is that:
- China without technology, money and buyers from the USA will go downhill again very quickly, because... its economy is STRONGLY DEPENDENT on the listed entities.
- The USA will easily survive without Chinese goods, because... The USA has a dollar, for which any manufacturer will produce products of the required quality and in the required volume.
At the same time, “bad and poor China” will be an excellent argument for allocating new funds to the military and other budgets.

China can theoretically begin a real confrontation with the United States and try to weaken them economically only if it finds an alternative sales market, technology supplier and investor. But, as you understand, this is still in the realm of fantasy

[DeathAngel]

If China's real estate sector crashed the impact on the world economy would be significant. China is one of the largest economies & a major player in the global real estate market. A crash in its real estate sector would lead to a decline in property values, construction activity & investment. This would have ripple effects on other sectors such as banking, manufacturing & commodities. China is a major consumer of raw materials so a slowdown in its economy would negatively affect commodity prices & global trade. A big crash in China's real estate sector would have a substantial impact on the world economy so hopefully it doesn’t happen too bad.

[stompix]

there is facts and data on the internet. but you cherry pick without understanding the context.
for instance even stompix done it too
"USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09."

he didnt use the context that years prior US had higher rate
he didnt use the context that years prior china had lower rate

And in what alternate reality did that happen?
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN

meaning US is on the decline and china is on the rise

And in what other different reality is that happening?
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2022&locations=CN-US&start=2010

which again as said, those that were 22+ in 2017 are still ingrained in one child family planning. so not planning on bursting out a football team in the next couple years

How do you explain that not only there wasn't a pop but the number is even lower compared to the one child policy time?

You're ignoring a lot of things in your assumption as always, you treat countries like simple statistics abased on your own views, completely ignoring what previous policies have done and the mindset of mainland china. Everyone, including the population, waited for this policy change with hope, it's in their culture to have a boy child first, or at least a boy if one kid, that's why it was expected millions who only had a daughter to try to have a boy kid, millions in their 22-35 age gap, well it didn't happen because they realized the cost of rising a second child is just out of their reach so the miracle didn't materialize!

But of course, you're not going to believe me so, a simple question, why did the chinese main statistics center stopped posting fertility rates for 4 years after 2017, the first year of policy change and all the data was coming from regional government till they couldn't hide it anymore?
When China or any other country cancels the release of a basic indicator, you know it's so bad they don't even want to talk about it!

China's inflation is low enough, why don't turn on the Yuan money-printer and let it go BRRRRR.

They've done it already though regional government debt!
Local government debt in China is $12 trillions, they printed money like mad and hid it under a ton of other statistics, but slowly as things crumble and state companies go bankrupt the pile of money pumped like there was no tomorrow comes in plain sight!

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/China-s-trillion-dollar-dilemma-of-local-government-hidden-debt

China's local authorities have accumulated trillions of dollars of liabilities off the books. They mainly include bonds issued by local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), state-owned companies set up to finance local investment such as building infrastructure. Debt is also hidden in public-private partnership projects, shady loan contracts and other channels used by local governments to raise money.
There is no publicly available official data on the current scale of the hidden debt.

As usual, when things are bad, they stop talking or releasing any data about it!
Imagine the outrage in Europe if any govemermnt wouldn't release data about the debt of the town halls, regions  or state companies?
When one tiny thing hidden comes to light there is like a war erupted in the media, when it's china...well, it's china!

[pooya87]

Why would China want to weaken the currency of their cash cow? That would only work against them, no?

Well, it's a war. A war over power and hegemony. In this war different sides are targeting each other by exploiting the weaknesses and taking away other side's strengths. Over the past 10-20 years others have been taking that power away from the US regime, little by little.

For example China's weakness is its massive population and the dissatisfactions that exists in every society and of course the existing dictatorship in China; while US strength is its cold war expertise where they can inflame a society when they put their efforts into it. This is where we see sudden outbursts of riots in China for no reason by people who have no demands and have no idea why they're rioting! lol

On the other hand US weakness and interestingly its strength at the same time is its economy. Despite US economy being massive and dollar being strong, it is all too fragile because all that "empire" depends on dollar remaining the world reserve currency that is used globally, is used in the ongoing scam known as Petrodollar, etc.
Meanwhile China's strength is its economy, super cheap labor and the fact that they keep their fiat exchange rate low. So this is how they hit US back.

For example by keeping their currency's exchange rate low, they keep production super cheap and deepen that trade deficit I pointed out earlier which hurts or even kills domestic production elsewhere including United States hence making those countries more dependent on imports from China which will then help Chinese economy and their further rise to power!

The result is also in other aspects like the fact that a weaker US economy means the US regime will have to stop or at least decrease its "overseas adventures" including but not limited to destabilization of East Asia and the seas around China. That will also help China expand and rise to more power!

It may be interesting to know that the fragile yet massive economy of United States has been in the same situation before.

In the 80's US economy was in the same mess as it is today with the increased energy prices, inflation, recession caused by the increased interest rates enforced by Reagan administration, industries losing money being forced to fire thousands of people, industries shutting down, and so on.

US dollar was artificially strengthened back then too because of the increased interest rates but that causes recession and recession kills domestic economy and production.
They were too deep to think about decreasing interest rates or weaken dollar themselves because that would've killed US economy in an entirely different way (same as today).

The difference however was that at that time US economy was competing inside G5 (ie. France, UK, Germany, Japan and US itself). For example the Japanese Yen exchange rate was too low compared to US dollar so Japanese products were cheaper and US economy was suffering in that competition (just like it is today against Chinese cheap products).
The difference here is that the first two are US allies and obey what US orders and the second two are occupied countries that were defeated in WW2 and have no choice but to obey US orders.
Then came the Plaza Accord which is to put simply US ordering these countries to manipulate their currency exchange rates and bring it up against US dollar to make their products more expensive compared to what is produced inside US hence give US economy the chance to compete and most importantly to survive.

In my opinion Japan took the worst of the Plaza Accord as it led to a big bubble in Japanese economy that was followed by a terrible crash. But the final result helped US economy survive on borrowed time.
This time however, US is going against China that is not obeying US commands and has so far refused to strengthen Yuan against dollar despite all US pressure and instead they keep weakening it to continue having cheap production!

Sorry it got too long but I thought it is some interesting points to raise here.
The war hasn't ended and I don't think we can predict the outcome but so far it doesn't look good for US dollar in the long run.

[franky1]

there is facts and data on the internet. but you cherry pick without understanding the context.
for instance even stompix done it too
"USA's fertility rate is 1.66 , China is 1.09."

he didnt use the context that years prior US had higher rate
he didnt use the context that years prior china had lower rate

And in what alternate reality did that happen?
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN

meaning US is on the decline and china is on the rise

And in what other different reality is that happening?
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2022&locations=CN-US&start=2010

which again as said, those that were 22+ in 2017 are still ingrained in one child family planning. so not planning on bursting out a football team in the next couple years

How do you explain that not only there wasn't a pop but the number is even lower compared to the one child policy time?

though you foolishly didnt use fertility nor birth stats.. ill ignore your mistake.. its self evident where you went wrong
(you used a stat that included census data of population+ death stats, like elderly excessive deaths due to covid)
ill just say this and let you figure it out

The fertility rate for China in 2023 was 1.705 births per woman,
The fertility rate for China in 2022 was 1.702 births per woman,
The fertility rate for China in 2021 was 1.699 births per woman,

anyway back to the point.
from 2016 onwards many developers accelerated residential construction under the future prospect of population growth=future demand. they too were foolish to think that people will be popping out football teams of kid instantly at 2017 and via the very young fertile who had not been indoctrinated into old one child policies..
but they got it wrong. they built too early, the acceleration has not kicked in yet
then with covid was a double hit

however that said china is not in the worse situation on the planet per capita

[stompix]

though you foolishly didnt use fertility nor birth stats.. ill ignore your mistake.. its self evident where you went wrong
(you used a stat that included census data of population+ death stats, like elderly excessive deaths due to covid)
ill just say this and let you figure it out

I'll just say that I'll let you figure it out why that website has already the 2023 numbers
Well, since admitting you're wrong and that you don't read stuff is impossible for you it has to a bit woth the source:
https://population.un.org/wpp/

The 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-seventh edition of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. It presents population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, underpinned by analyses of historical demographic trends. This latest assessment considers the results of 1,758 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2022, as well as information from vital registration systems and from 2,890 nationally representative sample surveys The 2022 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and national levels.

So, you're quoting projections.

Now, for the other ridiculous thing, you claim that my 1.09 is wrong as it's fertility rate and you show me :

The fertility rate for China in 2023 was 1.705 births per woman,

Just lol: https://archive.ph/mOiTH

A Chinese state-media report this week cited a sharp drop in the country’s fertility rate, offering a rare glimpse into China’s deepening demographic plight and highlighting the country’s increasing lack of transparency on data.
China’s total fertility rate—a snapshot of the average number of babies a woman would have over her lifetime—fell to 1.09 last year, from 1.30 in 2020, according to a study by a unit of the National Health Commission cited this week by National Business Daily, a media outlet managed by the municipal government of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province.

Enough real data, not projections for you?

[tsaroz]

What we need to realize is every place where the number of people are decreasing would have a real-estate crash. It would mostly be seen in Eastern Asia and Eastern Europe but might follow on Western Europe if they controlled the illegal migration.
Real-estate has been and is a bubble in many parts of the world and it is causing homelessness. It would eventually burst but it would be better if done in a controlled manner. Countries should learn from the problems in China and spend more on productive sector and it's people than helping inflate the housing prices.

[franky1]

Just lol: https://archive.ph/mOiTH

A Chinese state-media report this week cited a sharp drop in the country’s fertility rate, offering a rare glimpse into China’s deepening demographic plight and highlighting the country’s increasing lack of transparency on data.
China’s total fertility rate—a snapshot of the average number of babies a woman would have over her lifetime—fell to 1.09 last year, from 1.30 in 2020, according to a study by a unit of the National Health Commission cited this week by National Business Daily, a media outlet managed by the municipal government of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province.

Enough real data, not projections for you?

when you use western media outlet as your source
whom they use a media outlet as their source, you have already fallen into the trap of the media circle jerk echo chamber of confirmation bias and bad journalism
(research NBD many occurrences of false news and lawsuits)
you should try researching more and not digging your hole deeper

also the source i got my info from did not use projections for historic data, it used thousands of population surveys from within china for historical to current..
the projections were future numbers for upto year 2100 which have nothing to do with the historic data i mentioned. and i did not mention nor reference future numbers from that site

thus your counter argument about projections is empty and void

..
as for windfury assertions that 15yo are fertile and should have been popping out 2-3 kids by now.. he just does not understand context of real world society

there are many many first person prospective from people living in china that state that even young adults are still in the mindset of the teachings of one child policy and it will still take time for parents to be inclined to have 2 kids based on education that 2 kids is fine 2016+
and 3 kids is fine 2021+
because it takes a generation for pre-teens in elementary/primary school being told about family planning to then grow up and reach the typical parenting age of 27 to then start having 2-3 kids.
..
now getting back to the point. fertility rate has actually increased but due to many factors i have mentioned not as fast as some presumed.
(numbers are higher then 1.09 but lower then 2-3)
im not just talking about windfury. i am talking about chinese real estate developers that took the 2016 and 2021 news or relaxing child policy and over developed property before demand flourished..

in short 2016-2030 are not the years where chinese households are going to be demanding a 3-4 bedroom apartment/homes
chinese real estate developers jumped the gun. much like some other idiots

that all said..
america has other population and housing problems far bigger than chinas problems

[Wind_FURY]

Just lol: https://archive.ph/mOiTH

A Chinese state-media report this week cited a sharp drop in the country’s fertility rate, offering a rare glimpse into China’s deepening demographic plight and highlighting the country’s increasing lack of transparency on data.
China’s total fertility rate—a snapshot of the average number of babies a woman would have over her lifetime—fell to 1.09 last year, from 1.30 in 2020, according to a study by a unit of the National Health Commission cited this week by National Business Daily, a media outlet managed by the municipal government of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province.

Enough real data, not projections for you?

when you use western media outlet as your source

Ad Hominem. You're attacking the source of the information instead of the debate that the information presents, which has been confirmed not by just one source but multiple sources. You should prove that all that data is wrong, which you truly can't because China does have a reduction in reproduction rates and fertility rates. It's in the data, and it's a FACT.

What China should probably start doing is incentivize young couples who have more than two children with tax-cuts and other forms of government subsidies.

[stompix]

What China should probably start doing is incentivize young couples who have more than two children with tax-cuts and other forms of government subsidies.

Eh ..franky1, you know when numbers are involved he usually quotes the wrong ones and then he throws a fit when pointing that out. I got used to!

But you solution won't work either, because...well it was tested and failed!
It's pretty much the same thing as in the west, the cost for raising wo children are high and China has a another problem, it is treated in the west as a joke and most of it is meme material when you have kids in the 2nd grade being prepared for 6 paths in their career life but it's a highly realistic thing there and unlike 1980 and 2000 when this was still achievable with minimum education right now the costs in a far more competitive close to dystopian system are nuts.

I've read a page on this , I till try to find it again when I had time that compared the madness of getting you kid in a certain school/high school/collage to the animalistic behaviour of the strangest of the cubs, but it that case it was about the one getting the most food in here is about the parents knowing they won't ever have food for two or three so choosing to have just one!

As the wages increase and things get more expensive the cost of raising a child in the major cities outclasses the one in the western world,  there are clinics that charge you $15k for a birth and $40k  per month for the postpartum period, there are repot of people paying $20 000 to have their address temporary moved to another district so their kid can enlist in some different school, one can't even grasps the madness that's actually happening there.
Remember we're talking about a country that's still heavily enforcing the hukou system.

[franky1]

when stompix uses number, you then go to their sources explainer page and see they use guestimate of previous/current years

anyway to the point of this topic
china was low last decade and real estate jumped the gun after 2016 and again in 2021 thinking there will be sudden rush for 2-3 bedroom apartments..
however they didnt realise 15-29 are not the demograph popping out multiple kids. they have yet to even date and settledown de-program themselves from family planning indoctrination they got as kids themselves
(15-19 now are fertile but not even ready for family)
(20-24 now are fertile but covid disrupted finding a partner, and 4 years ago were not ready to settle down)
(25-29 now are fertile may have met a partner but still indoctrinated to old teachings of 1 child policy)

its those that were 7-14 in 2016 that now think 2 kids are the norm
meaning at best 19 in 2021 (but they were not ready to settle when many apartments were build in 2021)
meaning at best 12 in 2021 (but they not fertile/ready to date/settle/start family when many apartments were build in 2021)

the reaction of the 2016 2 child policy wont show results until at best a 14yo in 2016 is 27 .. meaning 2029
the reaction of the 2021 3 child policy wont show results until at best a 14yo in 2021 is 27 .. meaning 2034
now this means china WILL increase population just not yet

however america. with its traps of social media trend promotions of:
treating romantic courting rituals of meeting people in a bar as creepy/stalky/harassment
treating workplace romance rituals of meeting partner in work as creepy/stalky/harassment
treating the gender dynamics as reasons to hate, envy, offend, reject, oppose,  the opposite sex
"independence" means not needing a partner and a single life is better
bi-sexualism and gay trending means less opposite sex partnerships
the non binary of 'there are no real women anyone can be woman, so date a birthed-guy or your a misogynist'
remote working, online socialising and dating. to avoid physical contact
men advice: "live with parents until 25-30, save money"
women advice "dont date a mommies boy still living with parents, date the 0.01% bachelors you will never find"

all lead to americas decline of family planning in this and next decade
(im middle age in a healthy male-female relationship born and raised and ancestors in western culture.. but even i can recognise the wests failures)

in short. china real estate built 8 years too soon but will play catch up
in short america is loosing its footing and going backwards (cant stay at the top forever, only direction is down)

the % of money needed to avert chinese real estate disaster is less % of gdp than the % of GDP needed to prop up and subsidise the US real estate market

[Wind_FURY]

What China should probably start doing is incentivize young couples who have more than two children with tax-cuts and other forms of government subsidies.

Eh ..franky1, you know when numbers are involved he usually quotes the wrong ones and then he throws a fit when pointing that out. I got used to!

But you solution won't work either, because...well it was tested and failed!
It's pretty much the same thing as in the west, the cost for raising wo children are high and China has a another problem, it is treated in the west as a joke and most of it is meme material when you have kids in the 2nd grade being prepared for 6 paths in their career life but it's a highly realistic thing there and unlike 1980 and 2000 when this was still achievable with minimum education right now the costs in a far more competitive close to dystopian system are nuts.

I've read a page on this , I till try to find it again when I had time that compared the madness of getting you kid in a certain school/high school/collage to the animalistic behaviour of the strangest of the cubs, but it that case it was about the one getting the most food in here is about the parents knowing they won't ever have food for two or three so choosing to have just one!

As the wages increase and things get more expensive the cost of raising a child in the major cities outclasses the one in the western world,  there are clinics that charge you $15k for a birth and $40k  per month for the postpartum period, there are repot of people paying $20 000 to have their address temporary moved to another district so their kid can enlist in some different school, one can't even grasps the madness that's actually happening there.
Remember we're talking about a country that's still heavily enforcing the hukou system.

You're right, plus because a falling birth rate, which also leads to an aging population AND which actually puts more tension and demand on the younger age demographic to support the older generation through more taxing/pension schemes, WHICH would also mean that they should work harder/longer hours WOULD cause birth rates and fertility rates to fall further.

China has shot themselves in the foot, and an economic recession now would definitely place them on a harder path to recovery. They should probably turn on their money-printer and risk inflation.

[stompix]

though you foolishly didnt use fertility nor birth stats.. ill ignore your mistake.. its self evident where you went wrong
(you used a stat that included census data of population+ death stats, like elderly excessive deaths due to covid)
ill just say this and let you figure it out

The fertility rate for China in 2023 was 1.705 births per woman,
The fertility rate for China in 2022 was 1.702 births per woman,
The fertility rate for China in 2021 was 1.699 births per woman,

Oh Franky what happened to your data?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/17/china-population-decline-accelerates-as-birthrate-hits-record-low
and the CCP newspaper:
https://archive.ph/DVLuG

The falling number of new babies last year resulted in the lowest birth rate since records began in 1949, with 6.39 births for every 1,000 people compared with 6.77 in 2022.
~
Amid a plummeting interest in having children, 9.02 million babies were born last year, down by 5.6 per cent from 9.56 million in 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

But but but...your projections were showing these growing! 
Do explain to me how having 5% less babies in a year rises the fertility rate!

The thing is done for, there will be no increase in population whatsoever, every single country is going under, it's that just China thought it wasn't following the trend:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?end=2021&locations=CN-TH-VN-KR-KP-JP-ID-PH&start=1970

It's a global trend, once Africa aligns itself to it and it won't be more than a decade then it's the time to drop any shares you have in companies that produce toys diapers and baby formula!

China has shot themselves in the foot, and an economic recession now would definitely place them on a harder path to recovery. They should probably turn on their money-printer and risk inflation.

They can't turn it it on, it has been on for decades, just because the govemermnt isn't printing money it doesn't mean it's not printing debt for it's regional governments.  There will be no magical recovery, it's just the thing that "China grew old before it got rich", don't know who coined this but he was spot on!