Bitcoin Forum

Runes are one of the most hilarious* economic systems ever created, after perhaps BRC-20 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5451905.msg62211946#msg62211946).

1. Someone creates a token with a specific name.
2. Other people can create their own units of these tokens. There is a limit, but usually it's not very low.
3. Then all try to sell their tokens, thinking there will be someone collecting them, either because of the "creative" name, or because it was created on a specific date (e.g. Halving Day).
4. Rinse and repeat (protocol is open, everybody can participate in each step).

Basically it's like "you can create your own money! and you will be rich if you do that!" Are you really willing to waste thousands of dollars of transaction fees for that?

Technically Runes is not much more advanced than Omni/Mastercoin which was created in 2013. More than ten years ago!

---

If you think Halving Day is special to create your own Rune, think again:

During the halving day, 144 blocks approximately will be created. Each block normally has 1000-3000 transactions. 74% of them currenty are Runes according to this dashboard (https://dune.com/cryptokoryo/runes).
This means probably more than 200.000 Runes will be created today.
Now try to sell them all. Order books will be thick, but only on the ask side ;D

---

*not in a positive way ;D

Runes is the latest crypto get rich quick scheme.

Unfortunately get rich quick scams like ordinals, memecoins, and NFTs is appealing to many stupid people who don't have the patience for keeping long term investment.

Has this stopped the altcoins creation madness and the billions thrown at them?
Take a look at those:
https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
The 60 million paid in fees over the last 24 hours is nothing compared to how much those shitcoins have gobbled till now.

You need to stop underestimating the amount people can spend to create shit, the one people can spend to buy shit and how many want to get rich with shit. There are plenty who will say to your explanation, that everyone said shiba inu was crap yet people made millions with it for cents, try to convince them there is no opportunity for money-making here.

Runes will be around for while, there will always be a taker, once it finally dies and gets buried we would by then have at least two or three replacements clogging the chain.

Given the gullibility of people, Runes will be around for a while and people will try to buy and sell them just like what they did with crap coins. They are making money off it even if it's a trivial amount. They also have large groups of people willing to ride these crazy stuffs in exchange for cents, so there will always be a market for silly token creations.


And they come in huge numbers! Whatever these token creators are doing to appeal to the masses is working, and they are making money off of these hordes of people looking to catch the next get-rich-quick train.

It's the same as the brc20 when they've spammed the network and they're able to successfully made the fees crazily high.

But just like that, it is going to pass and they'll be forgotten by everyone. Right now, the fees are terrible but, once it is done we'll see some declogging on the network and that's the sign when they're nearly gone.

I think it is the first time seeing Bitcoin went on that kind of fee of $100+. I've seen this kind of fee but in gas fees on ERC20 but not on bitcoin blockchain.

This reminds me of the altcoin craze of 2018, after all the hyped, people are left with worthless coins. So I won't be surprised that many will lose money on this scheme but people never learn.


The only person who will gain huge profit is the creator and those early minters of NFT.

True, aside from the pioneer minters, miners are the ones who are next to profit the most without any risk of losses. ;D  Just like the reward on mined block 840000 after the halving.

https://i.ibb.co/dLnjMGG/blocbloc.png (https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/04/20/bitcoin-blockchain-has-fourth-halving-in-15-year-history-in-show-of-monetary-policy-set-by-code/)

Eventually some kind of "learning effect" will set in. For example, the ICO market is already much less hyped than it was in 2018. The NFT market is in problems since 2022, only having re-surged temporarily in 2023 due to Ordinals, but on Ethereum its status seems quite bleak. The memecoin market is also bearish, even looking at longer timeframes. Shiba Inu for example had a pump, but its high of slightly less than $0.00004 was far away from SHIB's ATH in 2022 ($0.00008), and now it's already closer to 0.00002, having lost 40%. Even Doge, which has some more "intrinsic" value because it's running on its own blockchain, and even has its own Ordinals clone (sort of, as it uses an older technology), hasn't reached even half of its ATH in 2021.

So in general I think these hypes will be smaller in each wave. It's likely that some of the halving day rune collectors will make a profit, but I'm almost sure most won't. I admit that the relative persistence of the BRC-20 hype during most of 2023 surprised me, I believed it to be shorter. But there is a lot of blood in the streets (ORDI, the "most established" of the BRC-20's, lost 50% of its ATH already), and each of these waves will see more disappointed bagholders. Eventually, the market will collapse, not to 0 but to the same low-level state the Ethereum ICO market is now.

In general I think also that even compared to most "normal" altcoins the Rune/BRC-20 value proposition is very thin. There is often not even a website, not even some technobabble to create illusions :)

you also forget the other trick of the scammers
(how they get paid, to then repeat the scam under new project names)

they sell the initial creation set of junk TO THEMSELVES at a high price to set a excessively high 'valuation'
(no cost to set valuation as they are both seller and buyer)
then on secondary markets sell the crap to victims below 'valuation' tricking victims into thinking they were offered a great deal 'from a friend' which the victim can then HOPE to multiply by selling at 'valuation'

its an old scam of fiat, played out in the digital currency world
EG
imagine selling a UK 50pence(£0.50) piece on ebay(to yourself so no cost, no profit) valuation setting market of say £500
and then promote the valuation in media.. and then sell a bunch of those 50pences for £500->£2 to 3000 victims(depreciating secondary market price until you get victim fish nibbling at the buys)

the victims think they got a good deal because they THINK they can then sell something they bought for £2 for £500..
where as the scammer has just received £6,000+ from something that only cost him £1,500(3000x£0.50)

scammers then do same with a 20pence knowing they can waste £4,500 on their scammed profits on advertising and fee's as long as they can try to break even/profit on next scam project.

If we think further then indeed we can draw conclusions like you are talking about but in the end we must realize that sometimes many are also tempted by such quick schemes for profit where this is the same as altcoins and memecoins in the end.
I personally will not be in such a situation because in the end I still think that everything will depend on intention and determination, and from the beginning I was in bitcoin until now my desire is only to be in my version of the most comfortable situation even though in bitcoin it is full of risks but on the other hand I want to be comfortable in my own way so I have to do it the way it should be done.
The get rich quick scheme might happen but on the other hand it will not last long so there is no reason to do that for me right now because I want to do it normally and according to what should be done.

However, if there are many people who want to be there for instant gratification or think it's a good situation then that's up to them because they have their own views on it.

I don't actually understand what happens in the blockchain these days. We will all be fighting one problem and then another problem surface. We have known that some miners called ordinals spam the blockchain to increase the transaction fees. Trying to deal with this we are hearing Runes. Those who are not that savvy like us will see this as big issues happening behind the scene and could be very much of a problem to the network. I'm scared that as we expect growth in the network but problems arriving more frequently.

well scrypt with doge/ltc has a robust mining community.

Mining it with a bitmain L7 from jan 2021 to apr 2024 has had solid profits.


plus doge and ltc can do cheap sends of smaller wealth.
most of runes are not very artistic. they may not have much value just loyal followers.

Your reasons above is the reason they are going to plummet in the short term post halving.
The fee is going to put off many transactions 
But as long as Casey Rodarmor remains or his like minded thinker
Projects like this would persist for quite sometime.
Runes are like Memecoins
Fall after their hype then increase after cooling down.
Ordinals did same
Many people flock to projects that are hyped and could give *10 without considering their risk.
Now We done with BRC-20, Now runes won't be, surprised if he jumps to another in the next four Years.

There will always be foolishness everywhere, in all markets. In the crypto market, including Bitcoin's, everybody is free to take their shot. They fail, they take another shot. That's the prevailing theme in crypto. Often, these aren't done in the name of innovation. They're done out of people's sheer folly. In the case of Bitcoin, there's Rodarmor's Ordinals and Runes, among others. But, just like anything built on sand, these won't last. At most, they can hit a certain level of hype and then die. The victims will always be those who lack awareness.

Also, do not be tricked by the hype being created on social media and on cryptonews media. Much of these hype are paid, they are not real. Everyone should always remember that you are the product. They are farming you to make more wealth for themselves. This is not about you or for the raising of your wealth. This is for getting wealth from you.

This news article is an example of these hype articles.

https://i.ibb.co/c64n6PF/79-BBB640-C226-425-B-8-FD8-CF05-CEFA5619.jpg

You Can Play Super Nintendo, N64, and Other Classic Games on Bitcoin—Here’s How

Thanks to the Ordinals protocol, crypto users have inscribed more than 65 million bits of media on the Bitcoin blockchain over the last year, from artwork to profile pictures to, yes, even playable video games.

One of the latest and potentially most expansive options is an entire classic video game console—well, at least a digital recreation of it. A Bitcoin Ordinals project called Pizza Ninja from the team behind the Ninjalerts app announced in January 2024 that it has inscribed a customized Super Nintendo emulator onto Bitcoin.

Read in full https://decrypt.co/212729/you-can-play-super-nintendo-classic-games-bitcoin-heres-how

Yeah these Runes reminds me of NFTs back in 2017. I first heard about it and assumed it was a joke. Then I saw those bored apes sell for like $50K and I assumed it must be some money laundering scam because who would pay that much for a picture you can just copy yourself.

Then i saw how crazy high some of those bored apes sold for. It was same with meme coins like Doge, Pepe, SHIb, they all should be useless but aren’t. Who knows which path Runes will take. It’ll either be a huge success to the early investors or a huge disappointment. Time will tell.

Basically human are greedy and in this volatile market, with easy space and opportunities to create hypes and bump prices by low marketcap, low trading volume and less strict regulations, daily margin of price changes, people have a good market to satisfy their greediness.

We need to don't underestimate many people's greediness and stupidity because they will need to spend their own money, create shit inscriptions, and learn from their practice, profit or loss, to recognize what they are doing is stupid. Only game makers win but most of greedy participants will lose money.

Runes will be around for a while, for months very likely, and in the mean time, we will have to live with very expensive transaction fees. We will have to either stay idly and don't make any Bitcoin transaction fee if we don't want to over waste satoshis for transaction fees, or have to spend expensive fees if we have no other type of money to use.

Ordinals, Runes, blah blah. I suppose it’s gives the miners the fees they are looking and continues to entice them to keep verifying blocks, but as you stated and agree, they are more harm than good in quite a few ways,

I wish there was an incentive to build in escrow like Satoshi proposed on here . Thats a game changer. Not this stuff I’ve been reading through in Sirius and Satoshi’s emails and saw Satoshi talk about it again. Wish I knew why it never came to be. https://i.ibb.co/59GdxXd/IMG-2997.png (https://ibb.co/fSqbGVb)

Honestly, RUNE or BRC-20 as well as other altcoin projects in the market, their purpose is to create hype around and there will be winners and losers. If anyone is not interested in technology, likes to take risks and accept risks, they can also make a decent profit from it. If I remember correctly, those who minted ORDI and Sats in the early days of the BRC-20 trend, they were also able to make x100 profits when those tokens were listed on Binance.

To me, these are just other altcoins but created on the bitcoin blockchain and they will soon disappear. Speculating on them and making short-term profits isn't too bad, but in the long run, like other altcoins they are not worth holding long-term.

why di they needs runes, when BTC itself is limited to 21 Million

every BTC that you own is rare

This goes in the direction of suspecting that the miners are behind this hype, they benefited the most from this euphoria.  ::)

It's because the developer find a loophole in the code, put pressure to the core dev or divided them.

In any case, I think Bitcoin enthusiasts knows that BRC20 and Runes are sure worthless, it's just another hype, and sooner or later those who are paying insanely fees like the one paid around $40k just to get his inscription at block 840,000 will regret spending that big money. It could literally buy some expensive stuff but he/she chooses to spend it to something that could be worth nothing at all in the future.

Personally, I have nothing against everyone investing their money in the way they think is best at some point, but I am absolutely against shitcoin makers using Bitcoin for their dirty games. What has been happening for months now only shows that apparently no one cares that more and more people are moving away from Bitcoin when it comes to any transactions for payment of goods or services, which only goes in the direction of completely destroying Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency, and becoming investment asset only.

I always tried to balance between using BTC for both purposes, but I had to give up several times because the fees were so high that paying with BTC really didn't make sense.

Think part of the problem (I don't like using that word but) is that the guys behind them are the same type of people behind BRC20s. A sprinkling of original Bitcoiners who have just enough technical knowledge to build the products, as well as wealth lying around to create and maintain their own market for months, if not years.

I really thought the BRC20 hype would die quicker than it has but it's still hovering. So people think the market cap staying high is an indication that it's sustainable but that's really just the creation of new tokens to prop up cap. Runes are the next iteration.

It's the bull run, I guess. We just got to live with the hype cycle every few years. Who was it who repeated that phrase I like about freedom? It ending where others' begins.

A recurring scalability problem, a Bitcoin blockchain-based project that harmed the original coin. When looking at histrori transactions and some articles I think they are too crazy. Why don't they feel at a loss when they incur large expenses.

I think the token creators on the BTC Blokchain network don't think it's bad for Bitcoin because they're just looking for profit. So when BRC-20 or Ordi hype transactions become very expensive due to network density, I believe Rune is the same problem. This problem does make it difficult, but if we understand then we should be able to take advantage when there are not many who make transactions.

The problem is that these people who are either inscribing data on Satoshi's or minting tokens on the BTC blockchain are obstacles to BTC adoption. Even if we believe or agree that it would be worthless soon, right now people would not want to join the BTC network because of the fees they would have to pay to spend their own money.
Miners benefit when tx fee is high, but none of these is their fault. If people decide to attach outrageous fees to their tx, it will be given priority because of the fee and confirmed by miners, as long as it is valid and follows the rules of the network.

to be honest BRC-20. It's really a joke but people who had it earlier will get a ton of benefits that is why the RUNE is at the hype right now. I would agree if bitcoin had layer 2 with rollup system but this one hmmmmm I don't think so the hype probably not gonna hit forever for now we probably just wait and see and how this is gonna be going

I was never interested in participating or being a part of it, even when sats/transactions were low, I still didn't want to touch brc20/memecoin/NFT tokens or any other type created on the Bitcoin network. Since I am quite opposed to the idea, I think the Bitcoin Layer2 developers have damaged Bitcoin network traffic.
During the halving it was very reckless to waste valuable transaction fees just to exchange them for trash in the guise of NFT or memecoins. No matter how ideal the content of the Whitepaper is, I will still maintain 1 Bitcoin for Bitcoin.

Worst of all,is the fact that some people will still be caught in the victim web.After fixing one problem,people get advice on security check,safety,and most of all awareness because that's one of the ways to prevent spam incidents.The weaknesses of people in cryptocurreny space is continuously tested,why not just stick to the one you know and trust which is BTC.
Eventually,these inventions were not in the first place issued with good governance and security yet people still suggests that Runes could help Bitcoin achieve its goal of widespread adoption.

Don't you find it absurd that the people who benefit the most have nothing to do with it? Someone is trying to be charitable by trying to increase transaction fees when they are not the beneficiaries of this game but the miners. Since the emergence of BRC-20 and now RUNE, and I believe there will be more, these will not stop anytime soon as it is bringing a huge source of income to miners. Not all miners are in this game, but certainly a group of people came up with this idea to increase transaction fees to benefit from it.

I'm curious what's exactly the reason why someone want to buy Runes?

Look at this picture, all of them are same, the difference is someone willing to sell their Runes at x price while the other sell at y,z price. Let's say I mint that Runes and sell it for 150 sats/Bitcoin, now the question is, what's the possibility someone who buy my Runes among other Runes?

A buyer will want to buy the cheapest one, so it will make the seller to keep decrease the price in order to attract the buyer. Sooner or later, Runes will be worthless.

https://imgvb.com/images/2024/04/22/c56436eec72b50a786022b8e3a4dbd90.png
https://unisat.io/runes/market?tick=BITCOIN%E2%80%A2WORLD%E2%80%A2ORDER

But the opposite scenario can also happen, if someone uses a large amount of money to bump prices, and people will not want to miss out and they will Fomo to buy at a higher price.

Yes, eventually all these things will go away and no one wants to talk about them but in the near future, they won't go away anytime soon because someone made the game and they won't stop anytime soon until they make enough profit. By the way, if you check bitcoin transaction fees, they are decreasing, I see things cooling down and maybe RUNEs will end soon.

I was thinking about the bitcoin whitepaper and this cloud storage stuff

There is something interesting there

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

I think people are spending thousands of dollars in this "cloud storage", but most block explorers doesn't even show that data.
Also, in the future probably most nodes will be pruned...

I see really low value in that shit

I don't doubt that there is an immediate or even short-term value of all this ordinal nonsense, but in the long term we can say that there is a high probability that this value will not exist because some new projects will push the old ones into oblivion. Someone has obviously found a gold mine and will dig in that mine as long as they can make a profit, and you can always sell the same junk to naive people just by changing the packaging.

Why there are still people getting attracted to these kind of investments?

TBH, I don't care how investors invest their money. What I don't like is these people trying to use Bitcoin for their own sake. First, it's the Ordinals that made the transaction fees of Bitcoin rise to a point where it's very much pointless to make a transaction of Bitcoin blockchain. Now we are seeing a "here comes a new challenger" moment in Runes where they are doing the same thing as Ordinals did in the past. Increase the transaction fees to a point where it's pretty much useless to transact using Bitcoin again.

Well, the hype (if there is) around these Runes sh*t will just die down in a few months like what happened to Ordinals and pretty much soon, we will see transaction fees of Bitcoin back to normal. As for now, like what we did when Ordinals increased the transaction fees, we need to find an alternative way to make transactions. Ordinals. Runes. More will be coming soon I guess? What's worse is there are investors who are investing on these type of sh*t.

Do you think the people who create and buy this shit don't think they can make a lot of money from it, surely they believe they can, and that is why they are in for something this worthless, you and i may know that this spam is worthless, but maybe not those who are into it.
This is a conspiracy theory that you cannot prove.

That would be a very good argument and it might not be a conspiracy theory because the miners' earnings per block is -50% hhehehe. They also cannot easily leave mining because they have invested so much money already. They need to more resourceful.

I speculate that if one of the biggest Chinese miners begin selling their business, this will be a warning sign that mining will become more centralized faster than what we have witnessed.

 :)

Runes are already dead! NFT mania is already dead! These are worthless things which is ruining the Bitcoin network and making bitcoin transactions super expensive. Just so tired of these nonsense!


This is surely a possibility! Because when the transaction fees go up, no one else is benefitted apart from the miners. But if this continues, Bitcoin will become an investment only and people will find new cryptos to make daily transaction. It's defeating the whole purpose of bitcoin.

About the "miner conspiracy": I noticed that Coindesk is generally quite positive about Ordinals, BRC-20, Runes and related stuff (examples are: this article (https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2024/04/17/why-bitcoins-monetary-maximalists-oppose-jpeg-enjoyers-and-why-theyre-wrong/), this (https://www.tiktok.com/@coindesk/video/7359718869952466182) or this video (https://www.tiktok.com/@coindesk/video/7360103826201808133)). Well, Coindesk is was owned until late 2023 (edited) by the Digital Currency Group (Barry Silbert's company), which is not a mining company itself (it also owns Grayscale and several exchanges) but owns a subsidiary which is into mining: Foundry.

So while I don't think there is really a conspiracy, I think miners are not unhappy about these developments and may try to push them with associated media. It's actualy old style lobbyism.

Exchange companies are also happy with everything related to new tokens they could list and be charging fees for. So in media related to exchanges, it should also be no surprise if the tone about Runes and Ordinals is favourable.

Coindesk's current owner is an exchange company called Bullish, so that fits in the picture too (Edited: See above). At least I feel it's a bit "strange" that we see such few articles in crypto media critical to phenomenons like BRC-20. NFT sellers, exchange companies and mining advertising can also play a role.

I'm personally not categorically against Runes, it's a better protocol than BRC-20 for sure, and such tokens could actually also be used for useful purposes. My problem is the economic model behind most of the tokens, and that they could also simply be deployed on an altchain more suitable for it. Also that it is presented as something "new" when it is a protocol very close to old-style Coloured Coins (Colu protocol, for example).

DCG sold coindesk to NYSE ex president tom farley

I really hope all this rune/ordinals stuff will be forgotten by next cycle

Even if today there was a new maximum of Runes transactions, there is somewhat good news: As of now, every day less new runes tokens are created ("etched"). So the current transactions are basically Runes which already exist but now people are minting them. Then there will be a new wave when they're trying to sell them.

While of course it was to expect that the halving block was the most popular one, it could have been expected that in the next days the "etching" activity was stable or even growing due to lower fees, but instead until now there's a steady decline.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/04/23/jqRQ1.png

Source: CryptoKoryo Runes Dashboard (https://dune.com/cryptokoryo/runes)

Also, Ordinals seem to have died (https://dune.com/d5k/ordqueries). Same will happen to Runes, the question is only "when" ;)

You're correct. I'd forgot that. Corrected the post. Anyway it's now owned by an exchange business, and exchanges also benefit from these hypes.

Any "token" built on top of bitcoin's current on-chain infrastructure will eventually be worthless.
It's well established that these types of tokens are exploiting certain features that Taproot and SegWit have to upload data on the blockchain that wasn't meant to be there. It's fitting to the definition of a bug because this is very far from intended functionality.

If from a certain point on this gets addressed, transacting these types of "tokens" will be deprecated. Just having them sit on-chain without being able to move them would be very odd, but it's a realistic scenario. With more and more people getting fed up with transaction fees especially, core developers have also gotten up to the task of discussing to find a solution to this issue. Hopefully we see some resolution soon and the fools looking to upload PNGs on-chain will have to move on uploading their files to a shitcoin's "blockchain".

In the case of Runes, this is not correct. Runes uses a quite old mechanism: OP_RETURN. It was introduced already by Satoshi, but made standard in v0.9 (in 2014) just to allow data to be stored in a way the rest of the users and nodes are affected the less possible.

Why was it introduced? Because in 2013/14, a lot of token and NFT mechanisms were created which used other techniques, like encoding the data in a fake public key. This is still possible, and in fact this is the way Stampchain SRC-20 (https://github.com/hydren-crypto/stampchain/blob/main/docs/src20.md) and Doginals (https://docs.doginals.academy/en/introduction/drc-20-introduction) (on Dogecoin, which uses old Bitcoin code) work. In these olden days token systems like Mastercoin (now Omni) didn't create that much of a fee spike than Runes/Ordinals do nowadays. But the reason why it was seen as harmful is that it introduces UTXOs which will never be spent, and these UTXOs have to be kept in memory by the nodes.

Basically, devs realized that there was no way to prevent arbitrary data being stored on the blockchain. So they "legalized" a way which makes it less harmful. OP_RETURN outputs can be safely pruned by full nodes.

So technically, Runes is an "ok" technology, very much contrasting with BRC-20 which is harmful because of its inefficient mechanism leading to excessive bloat, and hopefully died now.

But the economic model of tokens which are first "etched" by somebody, then "minted" by anyone, and then should accrue some kind of value? That's really Fantasialand, worse than memecoins and other altcoin stuff, and that's why I'm making fun of those people here in the thread :)

Here you could be right. At least there are already techniques being developed (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5461529.msg62625056#msg62625056) to validate the chain without having to store everything, and thus being able to provide a complete "full node" in a pruned state, deleting most of the data items/tokens on the chain. "Token lovers" would then have to reccur on archival nodes, which for several reasons (e.g. legal risk) will probably not be free to use. This should make the whole token business unviable in the long term, at least on Bitcoin.

running a fool node is not a full node(they sound the same, but not the same)
once you start pruning/stripping data and not validating data you are not a full node, you are not part of the same security level of full node network of peers that offer true IBD to new full nodes nor are you able to then relay certain unconfirmed transactions as you are not validating full length data of transactions such as signing proofs after certain opcodes

but yes gmaxwell sees a future where actual full nodes are not a free offering/open source, but instead a SaaS people have to subscribe to
.. and their lays the rub.. core dev wanting to privatise full nodes and pretend the free(fool) version is "full" when its not

They launched RSICs  (https://www.ord.io/57066799)- Rune Specific Inscription Circuits - that allows to mine runes. Those RSICs were distributed among particularly ardent ordinals fans.

The more of these RSICs a rune-miner has and the more transactions containing them will be included in one bitcoin  block, the greater the mining power of this miner, and therefore the greater the likelihood to mine the metablock relevant to those runes , the total number of which should not exceed 21,000,000,000, just like with Bitcoin.

That is why rune-miners have the  incentive in having  in the bitcoin  block as many  RSICs-containing-transactions as possible and increase fee rate allocated for such transactions.

The secondary market for these runes has already begun to form and reportedly the price for one RSIC is around 0.12BTC.  

 

Most of Runes will obviously die, and buying them today will absolutely be a very stupid financial decision. BUT, from a viewpoint of a user who wants to do his/her shitcoinery exclusively in Bitcoin, Runes might unlock a very LARGE amount of capital in the system - if they do it right. Bitcoin DeFi could be as big as Ethereum DeFi in my opinion.

There are builders that are bringing smart contract programmability on-chain, https://www.arch.network/

Plus for "wasting" our precious Bitcoins on huge fees, listen to OP. Plebs like us don't have enough capital for on-chain shitcoinery in Bitcoin. BUT for those users who decide to pay for huge fees, they are technically not wasted. They pay the miners to secure the network and to continue mining new Bitcoins to distribute in the system.

If you think "Bitcoin DeFi" includes everything involving the currency "Bitcoin", then I can agree. So if you include tools like RGB/Taproot Assets, where some of the operations are taken off-chain, then I see a bright future for "Bitcoin DeFi".

But on-chain Bitcoin DeFi should be quite difficult, because Bitcoin's blocks are much more limited than Ethereum's, and thus the high fee problem will make many typical DeFi operations unfeasible. Some years ago, the Counterparty project intended to bring a extensive DeFi suite to Bitcoin but even the fees in 2016 (much lower than those today) were too high for an ecosystem to evolve, while Ethereum thrived. They had even planned Turing complete smart contracts (see here (https://news.bitcoin.com/counterparty-bitcoin-smart-contracts/)) but development stalled for a long time; more recently it seems to have made progress in this field again.

A "good" outcome could be that Runes people could develop a technology similar to OmniBolt (https://omnilaboratory.github.io/obd/#/) using LN for Runes Transactions. But being aware that the Runes community is very much a spinoff of the Ordinals community and they were quite eager to put everything onchain, I doubt that.

From the standpoint of an user spending fees to "etch" or "mint" a rune which will never see a buyer, the money is wasted. ;)

I still am unsure if it's positive or negative that Runes fees are delaying the effects of halving to miners. I tend towards the latter: the miner income drop will come eventually, so it's currently only delaying it, with the cost of people leaving Bitcoin (delaying adoption "as a currency") because the network is more expensive to use.

@satscraper: Seems to be an obvious move to delay the death of Ordinals with some circlejerk token distribution, like the "Runestone" Ordinal tokens (not to be confused with the Runestone Rune platform ...)

@franky1: A full node is every node hosting all the data necessary to validate Bitcoin transactions. It should not be necessary to host the "original" data.

I'm talking about everything built on top of Bitcoin that has the potential to unlock those Bitcoins that are being HODLed in users' wallets. It's an opportunity for Bitcoin-only people to do some shitcoinery that's truly denominated in Bitcoin/without currency conversion.


It's very annoying for plebs like me who want cheap on-chain transactions.

To zoom out and to think about it from the whole network's viewpoint, it's actually neutral. The network keeps chugging along block after block, no consensus rule is broken, and the fee market works.

Positive for the miners because they are incentivized with more fees.

learn the word FULL or become a FOOL
pretending something is FULL when it doesnt do FULL tasks. doesnt mean its FULL

BTC>

If I am not mistaken, Luke Dashjr on Nostr or Twitter – I can’t remember now – said that as a practical solution for the Runes problem, we could use either BitcoinKnots or Bitcoin Core. Set ‘datacarriersize=0’ in your bitcoin.conf file or use the equivalent GUI option in Knots. I can’t find the Nostr post as I mentioned earlier, is that correct?

Exactly. FULL tasks but not necessarily "original data". ;) OP_RETURN in Bitcoin consensus rules means "everything behind that is irrelevant". So if something is irrelevant it should be outside of the scope of a fully validating node. That doesn't contradict that there may be other kinds of nodes which do see some "sense" in data stored behind OP_RETURN.

My thoughts on that were more related to the whole Bitcoin ecosystem, i.e. not only including miners but also the whole use case landscape. And the marginal benefits that miners are incentived to provide a little bit more security for some more weeks are imo outweighed by the negative impact on several user groups (not all - runes users are also users). If the incentives accelerate the creation of more and better L2s however (which solve the problem almost completely), then Runes are positive. This has to be confirmed though.

I think yes this is correct - Luke's Knots client correctly recognizes also Ordinals-type data (embedded in witnesses), but for Runes the normal Core option is enough because Runes uses OP_RETURN and Core's datacarriersize option restricts OP_RETURN size. See Luke's proposal here (https://github.com/glozow/bitcoin-notes/blob/master/datacarrier_28408.md).

This is actually one thing where I think Luke is correct, this is the way to give nodes the ability to restrict data usage, not some hard-coded heuristics which have to be updated all the time. But the importance may be limited as most would use the default value which is 80 bytes, and allows Runes.

Unfortunately, if everybody used datacarriersize=0, then people would simply use mechanisms like Stampchain (https://github.com/hydren-crypto/stampchain/blob/main/docs/src20.md) which are imo worse than Runes because they look like ordinary multisig transactions. And multisig has too many legit usecases to restrict it (LN, for example).

Well, I think we can almost be sure at this moment that Runes have killed Ordinals:

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/05/19/11Ks8.png
Source (https://dune.com/d5k/ordqueries)

And Runes are also declining fastly.

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/05/19/118SZ.png
Source (https://dune.com/cryptokoryo/runes)

Thus I've changed the title of the thread to adapt it to the current market situation ;)

I think Casey Rodarmor did the Bitcoin community a big favour when he created Runes. ;D My theory is that Runes simply caused more noise in the meme/token market, it was one competitor more in a field where already many platforms and token models, for example Solana meme tokens, had entered the space and competed heavily with BRC-20. This was fatal because the demand for the NFT/"uniquely named token"/memes model had already decreased. So they could create a short hype for the halving week, but later there was no way to sustain that.

Some BRC-20 tokens have still some value (https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/brc-20), like ORDI and SATS, but the big majority is being dumped into oblivion. I think they won't recover this time. Runes are doing even worse it seems (https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/runes) (all those tracked by Coingecko have lost in the last 7 days, even in a time when Bitcoin was slightly bullish). They may get still one or another hype wave, but they are mucho less harmful to the Bitcoin mempool and I guess also the waves will be much less pronounced than 2023's Ordinals/BRC-20 waves.

I hope I'm wrong about this, but something tells me it won't be long before the next incarnation of snake-oil is being hyped up by sleazy little grifters.  Fewer people seem to fall for it each time now, which is a positive, but the parasitic leeches seem determined to sell crap to gullible idiots.  I doubt this is the end.  They'll just come up with a new disguise for the same, old, worthless shit.

Even some temporary valueable ORDI and SATS will face with unwell future when Bitcoin bull run ends and bear market kicks off next several months.

Now, their ORDI and SATS enthusiasts still have time like months to enjoy their fun but it's can be starting time for them to think of what will happen next months, next year 2025 and make their plans to take profit, cut loss and exit these tokens, cut those tokens from their portfolios. Because in a next bear market that will last like 2 years, these tokens will lose likely more than 90% or 95% of its price.

Mempools are better recent days.
https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC%20(default%20mempool),30d,weight

When the bear season comes, is there any altcoin that doesn't drop in price miserably, or even disappear from the market? So don't be surprised if the BRC20 token disappears and is forgotten when bear season arrives. But the problem is that even if Rune and BRC disappear, developers will continue to create other tokens and network congestion will continue and get even worse if we don't have a solution. The core problem remains unresolved, so our joy at the disappearance of BRC or Rune is only temporary.

Just like the altcoin market, old altcoins will disappear and new altcoins will be created and the cycle continuously repeats, they will never disappear completely.

Maybe it's time to make most/all Ordinals TX non-standard, since there'll be less people bother opposing to such idea.


With momentary high fee on mainnet and permanently increase cost/resource of running testnet3 node. Although i also must admit Rune offer less bloat than Ordinal.

Haha, yes BRC-20 is definitely lacking in terms of feature rich functionality, something that other protocols offer so I don't think BRC-20 will be around. I for one am very intruiged by the new coined term "Epic Sats" & also I think it is quite a fun development in the space drawing new attention & adoption towards bitcoin's cause. I think you can definitely partake in the fun now and make some sats if you do a little research & find some good projects to get into. Personally I like bitmaps I think the concept is cool and they seem to have a lot of application in their own way. I have yet to delve more into the runes protocol & project & see all the other side rune projects - there is still much to learn in this area.

And one month later they keep minting them, reminds me of gold miners digging for gold 100 years after the mine was depleted.

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/05/20/1h3a3.png

Interestingly enough the more the fees go down the more cheap it becomes for everyone to get some of these, creating an artificial floor, probably there are enough who didn't want or were unable financially to get in the first wave and now they are trying their luck when it becomes affordable to gamble with those on their value.


I think those grapes are a bit misleading, it would look like runes have gone 1% of their activity but when you check the percentage of tx or the numbers they still make 20% of them:

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2024/05/20/1hktw.jpeg


Of course, there will be a new thing, I doubt we won't have one in a few months, just give them time to unload completely this crap to users so they don't end up with unsold merchandise and they will invent the new big thing, if jpg monkeys sold that well what wound't sell?

If there are no urban legends about how someone got rich minting Runes, there is a high probability that they will stop there.
An obvious example was Dogecoin, where many people got rich from nothing, and later we would have a flood of meme tokens for almost every breed of dog. If there isn't much talk of big money on the tokenization of the Bitcoin network, that trend could end up in history.

That saying "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me" is obviously not valid in the world of cryptocurrencies, and there is a high probability that we will see the next ordinal stupidity as soon as investors forget how "smart" they were with their investments the first two times. I hope that the developers will do something before that - let the children play in the playground, not in the place for adults.

the scrypt algo of ltc and doge is very profitable for mining and has been this way for almost 7 years in a row.

even pull away the false boost doge to  had 70 cents and you can still see that doge does well for mining.

Sentimentality never had its place in this industry, and everytime someone tries to bank on this concept they fail horribly.

Ordinals tried it with their Inscriptions, NFTs tried it, only thing that really stuck around is the ethereum name service but only because it serves a purpose higher than its sentimental value. Runes are no different from the its predecessors, and it's no surprise it's fucking up quite royally nowadays. Projects like these is what further drives the agenda of Real World-Backed Assets and why I think it's going to become the next biggest narrative in this bull season.

The fact alone that these clowns think we're schmucks who would flock upon the next snake oil is just a massive insult to me, and I'm quite glad people are becoming more and more skeptical when it comes to these things, degens and ape-ing on a coin is still going to be a thing, but for the rest of us who want more out of the coin that we invested upon, RWA is going to be the answer.

Sentimentality has never had a place in ANY industry. Period. Full Stop.

You can make some money off of other peoples sentimentality and sell things to them based on that. But long term it will not work. And no business should ever base itself on it.'

-Dave

Crypto tokens and NFTs and all that sort of stuff are generally worthless. These things only have worth is they have use. For 99% of this stuff the "use" is for the creator to try to market the thing to get rich quick. Once that is done the use is gone.

After people get burnt by this useless worthless stuff enough times they either leave the cryptocurrency space entirely or they realize that Bitcoin is the only thing they should be concerning themselves with. And of course I mean actual bitcoin, not random NFT data stuffed into a transaction of a single Sat or whatever.

Thing with alts (and runes/ordinals really are just very poor versions of alts, themselves generally poor implementations of cryptocurrency) is they've always done things counter logical.

Bitcoin's utility lay in its solution to existing money problems. Altcoins utility lay in creating solutions, then searching for problems to fit into the solution.

Not to say there isn't past success in manufacturing utility. But these collectibility utility is getting really quite old.

There will be still a lot of snake oil, but my hope is that it wouldn't again concentrate on the Bitcoin chain, at least not on mainchain. Between 2014 (Counterparty/Omni wave) and 2023 (BRC-20 wave) there was a 9 year stretch where token projects weren't popular at all on the Bitcoin platform. And with good reasons: With the exception of a little extra security there is almost no reason not to use a blockchain like Ethereum or Solana - or even LTC or Doge - for a token project.

At least I wouldn't oppose thinking now about limiting the script size to the same value as for non-Taproot scripts.

A potential side effect however could be that the bigger Ordinals get more "rare" then as it would be difficult to create new ones. This could potentially generate another hype, although at least the blockchains wouldn't suffer that much because basically only transfers would happening. The problem is if miners cooperate with Ordinals firms, to launch even "more rare" collections.

I think you're too optimistic here still. :) Even relatively "well-made" altcoins lose often 90% in a "crypto-winter" style bear market. ORDI lost already 50%, in the middle of a bull market.

This is why it surprises me that we already see such a big decline. I seriously thought Runes hype would last a little longer. Of course they have not disappeared and still there is significant minting/etching, but the difference to BRC-20, where the initial wave didn't end until at least 6 months later is striking.

The solution altcoins provide is to try to make the creators rich quick.

The main problem is the tokens themselves. If Ethereum, for example, actually ran all its apps using Ethereum itself, rather than having thousands of different tokens - a different token for every app, plus entirely useless meme tokens, then these apps would have actually been judged and used on their merit. Instead the only reason people use any of these apps is to try to get rich quick on the pump and dumps of these random tokens.

Why would ANYONE want a different token for every different app they use?! lol. I don't want a different credit card or a different currency for every store I go to. That's where things got stupid with Crypto. But the reason was because that's how founders of these companies, or simply creators of these tokens, could get rich quick, and also fund their company. And that's all they cared about. Why create a business with market fit when instead you can create a business with a token and regardless of if your business succeeds, as long as you can get part of the crypto market to try out your token you can make many millions from selling the premine and continuing to own much of the supply.

The idea of tokenizing the world turned out to be as dumb as the idea of "blockchain, not bitcoin" that business suit types started trying to spread back in like 2018 lol. The right thing was always: Bitcoin, only Bitcoin.

Couldn’t scammers lie about this as well? Even if they failed this time around to make the profits they were expecting, instead of giving up, they may lie about it, trying to create the image they were successful, to hype the next incarnation of this scam to gullible people.

After all, I would have guessed that by now most of those which have been around for a long time would know to recognize a scam by sight, but it seems I am wrong about that.

Runes and ordinals are the new meme coins, unfortunately some people are stupid enough to buy some and hold, thinking that if Bitcoin made a new all time high they will become rich, if I say that I am wondering who will buy from them it is a lie, when retailers start running back to the market they might start buying too because they are bunch of idiots, it was how we never believe that the past meme coins will gain attention but they did, some turn rich and some turned poor.

The way people are investing in these useless ideas is mind bothering, some people Soley care about meme coins only, since crypto is mostly about hype anything can happen, here is what I think, right now it is too early to say that runes and ordinals are done, some idiots will still come back and buy, but when this bear market is over many will end up with worthless inscriptions.

Let's see how things will go this time, I am expecting one more noise on runes and ordinals before they finally died and forgotten, it is a shame that many people will lose a ton of money because of this madness.

Reading the posts saying Runes are stupid.

Although absolutely true, at least Runes as a protocol for shitcoinery in Bitcoin is better for the blockchain than BRC-20. Runes data are stored directly in UTXOs which means they could be used in LN? Plus it won't be expanding the UTXO set like what Ordinals-based BRC-20 does. That's what many on-chain users want, no? For those spam transactions to be removed on-chain? I believe Runes is the technical development that could do it. The Lightning Network will be spammed though.

I was thinking about making OP_FALSE OP_IF ... OP_ENDIF non-standard, since BRC-20 usually put data less than 100 bytes.


I think such hype wouldn't last long. And i don't see any problem with miner/pool including non-standard TX, assuming they charge premium cost for it. Miner would earn more money, while Ordinal create less spam.


I think you forget the fact Runes use OP_RETURN to store the arbitrary data, where OP_RETURN output usually isn't stored on full node UTXO set.

The instigators for these things don't have a long-term interest, though.  It's a pump'n'dump.  They hype it up and then sell it ASAP.  Whether it's a bull or bear market, these things aren't designed to retain or increase their value over time.  Anyone still holding it after the initial pump is just a victim who hasn't learned anything yet.

I would not be happy with such a direct blocking, but I think I made my point clear already in other threads.

Of course projects using BRC-20 could now simply switch to Runes (as they could have done before to platforms like OpenAssets, Counterparty, RGB ...). But I think it's better to simply let BRC-20 die alone. I don't discard there could be some waves still but judging from what we've seen in the past weeks since the halving they will be much smaller and do no harm.

Such a measure would be considered arbitrary if there was no technical reason other to block a standard some do not like. Include me of course among those that don't like BRC-20 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5451905.msg62211946#msg62211946) :), but I think Bitcoin never should target any standard, only real vulnerabilities. So I personally would only support such a "direct block" if the OP_FALSE / OP_IF -> OP_ENDIF combination is really technically dangerous, allowing really malicious scripts, but is that a thing in Bitcoin Script? (I'm not knowledgeable enough to answer this question, but IMO the harm which can be done only is related to that the script size limit can be circunvented).

AFAIK from what I have read in the developer mailing list they don't consider this script to be a "bug" which should be "fixed". Except Luke-Jr, of course, but I think with his datacarriersize method he implemented in Bitcoin Knots, he found a reasonable way for nodes to block Ordinals as "data transactions" if they don't want to relay them.

Possibly you're right. What I fear is however that with such a measure you could paradoxically help BRC-20 to keep alive; they could find a way to transact them with a method not including an Inscription. And those having created them in 2023 and early would feel rewarded to be in possession of such "rare" objects. It's only a bad feeling I have, of course it's not sure if this will happen.

For me personally, Runes as a technology isn't that stupid. In the OP I'm referring more to the model to create a token whose only value lies in having a "creative name" and which can then be "minted" by anyone.

But Runes can also be used for things that make more sense, of course, like as a game currency, or as a crowdfunding platform. However, it would not make so much sense to create this kind of currency on Bitcoin due to the fees. The "magic" of Runes is much related to the same (imo stupid) "value proposition" than in BRC-20: having a "valuable" token on the "OG" Bitcoin blockchain. Very much like a NFT, but in a minimally fungible way.

By the way, Runes could be probably transferred via LN if their protocol includes timelocks and hashlocks. I don't know the protocol in detail however. This is something which can be added but adds some complexity to the algorithm (basically they need either a hard-coded way to do those locks or an own "Script language").

I am really enjoying this... I was hoping this would happen, sometimes I think the only one who got something positive out of this is the creator of the runes... It still surprises me how people keep falling for these scams  ??? ??? ???

I saw through that right from the start -- and I think the majority of app developers did too. But you say an important complementary point to what I said about people manufacturing utility (by creating a solution and then searching for the problem) -- that they also completely lost the plot with Ethereum as a "supercomputer". I agree, they should have just used Ether (gas) to run everything. Their app itself would have made them money but no. They all sold a dream of tokens being traded for demand in whatever half-assed utility they thought up.

That really is all they care about (making money and exiting). Hey, I fell for some of them too.

The worst thing (well, not the worst but) is those suits and ties are now parading as Bitcoiners to sell their Runedinals...

So everyone that said "No" to ordinals was right?

Well not "right", but the siding with ordinals aged like milk I guess if you liked ordinals or supported them.

Only Runes I fuck with are Runescape lmfao.  ;D

Sorry to everyone that got hurt or had their journey fucked up because of the get rich quick hype. Truly.  :'(

<3

It's great that bitcoin is in a way purifying itself of all that useless stuff.

I can't say I'm unhappy because the fees went back to normal and all the people who were overpaying hundreds of dollars to put ordinals or runes into the blockchain lost. I appreciate the effort but you guys lost and bitcoin won.

Nobody is going to miss ordinals and runes but people who thought they'd do money from it, just like nobody cares that NFTs are worthless but people who still own them.

I'd like to add a point to this discussion, because I disagree a little bit with you both. :)

In general I think the use case to fund a company with a premined token, be it on Bitcoin (less recommendable, but I could see some reasons for Bitcoin-specific apps) or on Ethereum or whatever, is not bad per se. It's often hard for companies to get fresh money when they start, above all in parts of the world where loans are not easy to obtain, and the opportunity to create something similar to a "share" on a crypto platform can actually make sense. Above all of course for crypto-related projects, but not only for them.

Cryptocurrencies still are bad for handling the "lending" use case: If you lend BTC to someone and the BTC price spikes or takes a dip, then one of both parties will get an extra benefit. Thus "lending" is mainly a thing in DeFi protocols where people basically use that to leverage trading between different shitcoins, but you wouldn't use a BTC lending platform for a credit to build your house, or to fund your company.

Tokens, on the other hand, are one way to manage "lending" for projects, because this allows them to offer a "value" independent from the volatility of existing cryptocurrencies. Of course the "cleanest" way to do that is to create an utility token which can be traded 1=1 for a service they provide. But sometimes this is not possible in the early stages. But in general, I think this instrument can be handled in a correct way.

But of course @buwaytress you are right about the impression that several of these project searched for a problem what didnt't exist. And some of course were - and still are - outright scams. The challenge is of course: how can investors be protected from that? For some it's like gambling, I think those investing in meme tokens know exactly what they can lose. But some get scammed by projects which look "serious".

Perhaps some kind of "transparency standard" for serious token projects could be elaborated, e.g. with voluntary "quarterly reports", a "prospectus" and so on (no, a "roadmap" is not enough :) ). In some jurisdictions I know this is actually already mandatory for security tokens (including EU from July on), but I think projects from other countries should embrace this kind of transparency too.

It's true what you're saying; most people who say this coin is shit or that coin is shitcoin are usually the ones who end up being humiliated. And what most people say is shitcoin and that your capital is dangerous in those coins; instead of decreasing, investors are increasing even more due to the intensity of the hype.

Therefore, these shitcoins that are highly hyped are usually the investors who are obsessed with them; they are the ones who get rich, and the others get it right when they suddenly lose the size of the income from meme coins, or shitcoins as they call them.

Finally, it was a matter of time before they become worthless, it's in our best interest that this has finally happened, I don't even think that runes have ever contributed anything to bitcoin besides the congestion of the network, hopefully we get to see more normal transaction fees and reasonable transaction fees now that runes are basically worthless. I still thank those people that have wasted their bitcoin though, some of them are doing something for the market of bitcoin so they still get some high five from me.

It's almost die, where some exchange (including Binance) already delist it. And such change will take some time, so it's possible BRC-20 will die or at least closer to die.


AFAIK there's no security risk. But why should it considered as standard, when the script itself never executed (due to OP_FALSE in the beginning)?

Casey Rodarmor described Runes as something like a serious protocol for memecoinery/shitcoinery because he was skeptical of "serious tokens". From my perspective if a person wants to do some shitcoinery on top of Bitcoin, then use the more efficient Runes, don't use BRC-20.


To store token data, but there's nothing technically wrong with that, no?

Where Can I find the order book? Couldn't find anywhere  :D

I saw só many people saying that bitcoin feels would be forever high, and nft were going to dominate bitcoin blocks... it died so fast lol

In Brazil we call this "chicken fight". Ever saw a chicken flying? Lol

I will admit that I thought that the fees would stay higher for longer, and perhaps with a bit of uncertainty for several months.. .but, yeah we are ONLY about a month out and fees have been pretty damned reasonable for about the last week or so..

Personally since I don't have enough bitcoin to move around I didn't feel much bordered apart from recieving my campaign payment which I use for investing gradually and since it's relatively small i just leave it on the exchange for some time before I send to my wallet.

But it's a surprise to see the big issue that had many threads discussing high tx fees and the effect of Runes and Ordinals shit die off without notice. Whatever was done to pull that shit out of bitcoin is highly appreciated.

I may reconsider my stance on that. If we can be sure that this script has basically no real use case apart from storing data, perhaps you're right and it would at least not be blocking any interesting contracts.

I wonder what the current standardness rules for Taproot scripts are in Bitcoin Core (apart from consensus rules specified in BIP-342). For P2SH there were (almost) no rules for some time, but that has changed with time (https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/93782/standardness-rules-related-to-bip-16-p2sh). For Taproot all I can find is this handful of rules in the code (policy.cpp) (https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/policy/policy.cpp#L262), related mostly to MAX_STANDARD_TAPSCRIPT_STACK_ITEM_SIZE, the control block and annexes. So the above proposed rule would be far more "detailed" and could be interpreted as "arbitrary heuristics".

There was also a proposal in the Ordinals community to store the inscriptions in the "signature annex" (https://github.com/ordinals/ord/issues/2405) which was still open in February 2024. Would that also be prevented or would this be one of the methods which would lead to a bigger UTXO set? Still a bit skeptic, because if this is implemented the nonstandard rule would not bring any benefit.

Meanwhile, some Runes seems to have recovered from the recent crash and got double digit increases in the last 7 days. So I don't discard a second wave incoming. I believe it will be much "lighter" than the first one though.


Here (https://magiceden.io/runes/), for example. For some reason I'm not able to see buy orders for the most popular one "Dog go to the Moon" or this one starting with "Z", only sell orders. That would confirm my prediction but it's of course also possible that the website or my browser doesn't work correctly. ;)

There are no sell orders appearing at all on the latest Google Chrome. What the heck is going on? ???

I am apparently experiencing the opposite scenario as you. There are so many buy orders available but no sell orders.

So I'm guessing that either means that someone is busy pumping and dumping most of the Runes (I mean why wouldn't that happen, since only a few crypto bros use it anyway) or else there really is a dysfunctional market for these things.

Just checked again, and got the same result as yesterday night.

I'm seeing several orders under the "Buy" tab. I interpret that the "Buy" tab does not show the buy orders, but instead sell orders for Runes you can buy. You can see at the right side that when you click on an order, you see a button which enables you to buy these Runes when you connect a wallet to this marketplace. So I'm sure these are sell orders.

While when I go to the "Sell" tab, then I only see the "waiting" animation and no orders appear. I'm interpreting thus that nobody placed a buy order, or publicly declared interest to buy.

Do you see the same thing or do you see lots of orders under "Sell" (which should be buy orders)?

It's not only reasonable. It's at its lowest after Ordinals' release and its popularity among shitcoining circles. That was a very quick cycle of money coming from the "prey" to the "predators" with nothing technically new to show for. Plus the fees, the miners' cut, which speeds up the plebs' losses to the Shitcoinery Casino. 8)

But to be frank, I'm tempted. It might be a golden opportunity for "traders" because there might be a narrative for "Bitcoin DeFi"  this cycle. I'm not good in trading though.

I cannot really be sure regarding how the topics could overlap in terms of how we might talk about the effects of runes and ordinals (inscriptions too) on bitcoin, and including potentially our own personal financial considerations that might involve how much that we might want to get involved or financially dabble in pump and dump baloney as compared with just building our BTC holdings and/or engaging in other practices to try to protect our BTC holdings during many times that there might be both ambiguities in the market but also congestion on the blockchain that might cause some of our UTXOs to either unspendable or uneconomical to spend.

On a personal level, I don't really have any problem with guys who are tempted to gamble in various ways, including if they might see some potential areas in which they might earn more money - yet we know with bitcoin people might end up getting deceived and distracted away from bitcoin, as the prize possession... so if there is such a great asset such as bitcoin itself, why add additional risks when you have nearly a sure bet (yeah, I know nothing is guaranteed, so we have to account for even bitcoin not being guaranteed either)...

I know for you personally (Wind_FURY), many times you have claimed to come from a kind of impoverished starting point, so then there is a bit of an implication that you are having to struggle to build the size of your BTC holdings, so perhaps you are not even close to being in a position to having enough (or more than enough) BTC, so your distraction into other ways to increase your BTC stash seem to be greedy rather than practical, so maybe my own punchline consideration would be regarding how much of your BTC are you willing to put at risk in either your diversion of BTC into gambling on runes, decentralized finances, ordinals/inscriptions or whatever other bullshit pump and dump nonsense that you are identifying to potentially be profitable?  If we are talking less than 10% of your BTC holdings (without cheating about it), then sure, that might be within the realm of reasonable in order to satisfy your urges to gamble and to try to get rich quicker than you otherwise would be able to with a more pure bitcoin approach.

Also, I am not really opposed to the idea of learning about something through putting some money into it, even if there might be a bit of a waste of time element to the whole matter, yet we still come down to putting limits on ourselves so that we do not get too diverted from actual wealth building and if you are claiming to having poverty-stricken circumstances, then you likely already realize that it can take 30-40 years in traditional investment scenarios to build wealth and potentially get to fuck you status (and many folks do not even get there after more than 40 years investing and doing all the right things in traditional investments). 

So, bitcoin potentially gives you a chance to actually get to meaningful and significant wealth building in perhaps less than half of the time as traditional investing 15-20 years and maybe even higher chances of actually getting to such a wealth-built status, so why fuck it up by potentially getting greedy and/or overly dabbling in shitcoins (runes etc) merely based on the fact that you might be feeling somewhat wealthy based on your already 8-ish years in bitcoin (congrats, I see that you just passed your 8 year anniversary on the forum - can't be claiming newbie status anymore.. hahahahahaha).

So.. yeah, even folks who had been modestly investing in bitcoin over the last 8-ish years might have made a lot of mistakes and still be feeling that they are doing somewhat well in terms of their own bitcoin investment performance levels.  This can happen with any investment in terms of the psychological components of a wealth effect that might contribute towards more spending, risk taking, withdrawal of capital and/or even temptations to diversify that might not be reasonable/necessary - while at the same time, it might be difficult to recognize and/or appreciate the value of sticking to the earlier course of action that would be to be continuing to stay focused on the prize (bitcoin in this case) and not getting lured into shiny objects that may well merely be serving as ways to separate you from the bitcoin you have so far built to date and also the bitcoin that you would continue to be able to build by remaining focused on ongoing accumulation of bitcoin rather than other "possible things that might (or might not) return more."

What would you say about NFTs from that perspective? It's almost the same thing right.
Yet there are so many people buying and selling it everyday.
People have literally paid millions to buy some random creepy image.
I was really shocked to see such dumb people paying such high amount of money for such shit images.

You're correct, in most cases I think NFTs have a similar bleak "value proposition". This applies mostly to "collections" of small images with no artistic value. But at least they're unique. And that makes me understand the NFT frenzy a little bit more than the BRC-20 and Runes frenzy. There are also NFTs I could consider "art". And there are other non-artistic NFTs which can accrue value in some cases when people charge these images with symbolism. I guess that's what explains the whole Pepe frenzy or perhaps also the "Bored Apes". Basically they are a bit like collectibles.

In the case of the BRC-20/Runes tokens, however, the only thing they have as an USP is the name. And there are potentially thousands or even millions of token units ("token satoshis"). In theory, if you own one unit of a token you already get the benefit of the USP. Basically owning many of these tokens is like "Yeah, I'm rich because I'm owning 5% of the name (of a particular protocol, on a particular chain)". Of course there is also some symbolism involved like in the case of memecoins, but the analogy with "real" collectibles becomes much harder to understand.

Of course this doesn't apply to Runes/Ordinals which do have some specific purpose, like an in-game currency, or a crowdfunding mechanism.

the ordinals and runes are not NFT. nor bitcoin standard. they just want to abuse branding to get instant fame from other projects, whilst all these runes and ordinals offer is scammery

true NFT are like unique serial numbers/hashes per unit whereby they are not mass produced such as hundreds of units per utxo
true NFT have unique features that offer the recipient unique things

the runes and ordinals are more like ICO scams.. not NFT

as for true NFT we have yet to see the real best case utility/possibility of them, but these scams of runes and ordinals are not even in the same league/sector/category of NFT potential

I'm the same as you, I'm agnostic because technically they're not breaking the consensus rules and they're paying the miners the fees required to have their transactions in the blockchain. Who am I to tell them to leave?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Although I'm just a mere pleb, I'm very happy with my Bitcoin savings. The amount of shitcoinery I'm willing to do will be mere $100.00 bets for fun, not something to lose my sanity over. I'm having enough of that in Bitcoin.

A little update:

It seems the second Runes wave in late may/early June is now also over.

Runes transactions are declining (again), and that has led to much nicer transaction fees in the last week:

https://talkimg.com/images/2024/06/27/hhRnq.png
Source: Cryptokoryo (https://dune.com/cryptokoryo/runes)

But also the prices of individual Runes tokens (https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/runes) have been weak in the last week. While "Dog go to the moon", the most popular Rune token afaik, could hold its value approximately (but staying 40% below of its ATH in mid-May), most of the tokens listed on Coingecko went down 10% or more. GOB*IS...etc. (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/gob-is-gob-is-gob) and MEMERUNE (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/meme-economics-rune) are bouncing a bit but they are also significantly (40 to 70%) below their ATH in May or June.

Will there be a third wave? For sure. But I guess it will be even weaker than the last wave.

Good thing the hype mostly ended. Mempool.space also report there aren't many TX on mempool which contain arbitrary data.

https://i.ibb.co/WpfWpJq/d.png (https://imgbb.com/)

Although some of them use fake pubkey on multisig rather than OP_RETURN or inscription, which suggest SRC-20 or similar protocol still used by some people.