Bitcoin Forum

I see many new threads of people shorting Bitcoin at current prices. The time to short was on the way down from $800 to $450, this is supposed to be when those shorts are covered! (At least that's what I'm doing). Judging by the sentiment here and the oscillators on the 1day, 3day and 1week scales, the capitulation bottom occurs within 8 days, then it's all green as bears begin the old denial dance, attributing the rise to "whale manipulation"

Careful out there, don't get fleeced by Mr. Market ;) ;)

agree with you
just HOLD, don't panic sell your BTC

who is mr. market? someone who try to control market price?

Mr.  Market is a slang term for the overall market. He attempts to take from the masses. :) this is a somewhat competitive game after all.

We are much closer to the bottom than the top.
Why isn't that obvious to more people?

What oscillators are you using?

Mr. Market's premium oscillators? 

This should tell you something
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1396208837639.png

Hint... It's called bullish divergence. Until it's neutralized, it is a buy signal
It's even more prevalent on the hourly, and is slightly visible on the daily

I'm desperate for bitcoin to go back up.  I stand to lose everything.  When do you think we see bitcoin climb steadily?  It's been on the decline for months now.  HELP

I know whats gonna happend, but I thnk its better not to tell you, you might try something

You think it's going to zero huh?

He's either trolling you or just messing with you. It's not going to zero

after it peaked around 260 last april i saw posts similar to yours. it went down and down, - i had invested when it was around $ 135,- and it went down to the seventies after it. i felt hopeless and saw many hopeless posts.

it went over 1k a few months later.

don´t worry. if it is really bad, it will take 12 - 18 months to recover. i think it will be be back up sooner than that.

 

Some bullish long term targets regardless of bad news recently

EDIT: fixed link

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/7432095/download.png

Why the desperation? Do you have bills to pay or do you just want a quick payoff?

I think it'll be a good while before we're back over $1000 but the weight behind the ecosystem grows daily as do the number of scumbags being cast aside.

Yes I will need to sell within the next few months to pay some bills.  I owe the IRS and therefore am going to be behind budget for some time to come.  Also need some summer tires.  I just need bitcoin to go up within the next few months.  I can't wait a year.  I'm so desperate.  And I'm not as informed as some here.  What I don't understand is in October and November we'd see huge drops but just as quickly we'd see huge gains.  They all seemed to come pretty close to each other.  If it dropped $100 in a day, no problem because within a day or two it'd go right back up and maybe even higher.  This time around it's a GRIND.  And the only fast movements seem to be down, not up.  The only quick rise was that bounce up to around $700 a few weeks back.  Other than that it's been very depressing for someone in my position. 

People tend to buy into the hype, and buy when things are overbought thinking of quick profits.. it's not without reason you should not invest more than you can afford to loose - then you avoid making hasty decisions.

Unless the Bitcoin protocol is totally and utterly destroyed by some ridiculously improbable act of God and all the devs mysteriously perish, Bitcoin will not go to zero now.

Hell, I don't even think it is going to go any lower than this really. Just look at what happened last year. Very close to the same pattern. Nothing fundamental has changed at all; we're still in the same pattern of adoption, hype cycles, disasters, etc.

The bubbles, pops, ups, downs... it's natural market movement and not controlled by any one entity. This might sound foolhardy but to me it's like watching a well-potted plant grow, in the greenhouse without any major diseases etc. This is just my opinion but don't worry.

This time some serious things have happened which has caused the price to go down.. china outlawed bitcoins and MT. Gox going down - allthough MT. gox from what i've read has been a dead man walking for a long time - people not able to withdraw their funds etc etc.

Just wait.. i've only been into bitcoin since december (mid december was my first purchase - just before the crash LOL) and from what i've learned, if the price comes down quickly, it will come up quickly. Bitcoin has seen much darker times with the trolls making bitcoin go to very low value back in the day.. bitcoin has overcome these difficulties and the team behind bitcoin and the expansion of btc-related startups seems to indicate that bitcoin, allthough very bearish in short term, will become very bullish again.

And next time: don't invest more than you can afford to loose!

If your time frame is the next few months I think the scope for relief is likely to be OK. It's not going to do anything fun for a while but some very exciting developments are rumbling away in the background that'll make everything that went before it look like amateur hour.

If you had to pay your taxes a couple of days from now then it would be time to panic. Is your average cost per coin significantly higher than now or just a bit?

Cost average yourself; if your average cost per coin is higher than $700 right now then buying will make a BIG difference right now.

That cost average is plain bullshit. If a purchase made a loss, watering down with another purchase wont make the loss go away, it will just make it smaller in percents. The amount remains unchanged.

Worst piece of advice ever. That is almost as bad as telling people to always chase market momentum cos that is the direction in which the market has gone.

He made some bad trades. He has to forget about those and either decide to cut his losses or stick it out, based upon what he believes the fundamentals and technicals are telling him. Right now, they are telling me that Bitcoin has a damn good chance of hitting $200 range. If $400 fails to hold, and especially if $380 is breached, then Bitcoin goes down fkn hard. Before $200 is visited however, I would imagine that some kind of strong rebound of $420 - $380 is a high possibility.

I would have no issue making a buy to decrease my average if I knew that bitcoin was on the rise.  I made my last buy just a few days ago at $480 and here I sit pissed off at this price of $450.  If I'm going to make a buy I really need to hit the true bottom where in the short term I know that the bitcoin will go up and I can make a little money.  I haven't made a profitable buy since 2013.  Everything I've bought this year has cost me money.  So frustrating.  

Well, if it is causing you angst I'd say that remaining on this forum isn't going to do your mental health much good.

Stick to http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/ if you want to keep on top of things in a slightly more constructive and objective environment.

Thank you!  I like how posts are marked as bullish and bearish.  I'm too new to realize the difference sometimes. 

When we were at $820 two months ago people were saying Bitcoin would go to the moon...that didn't happen. They should have sold or shorted.

Now it is $475 they think it is time to "short". LOL so counterintuitive some people's trading patterns.

If you don't see the price recovering then sell everything and never look back. If you invested in Bitcoin because you think the protocol will be useful in the world then cost averaging is safer than day trading.

If you think Bitcoin is dead then take your losses and despair. I think this price is low enough that anybody who buys now will see healthy gains within a year.

ftfy

Just because something is banned in another country or even this does not mean it will go away, just like the greenhouse (controversial political subject but there are many parallels), someone has invested a lot of money, a LOT of money, to ensuring that the greenhouse is built solid, that the water, nutrient and light systems are going to work to the best efficiency in order to ensure that there will be a good harvest, eg Mining Hardware and the money spent to build then buy the miners and build an environment to maximize BTC returns in small or large operations, racks, power, cooling, DC expenses, etc.

Then lots of other people spend a lot of money on lobbying, licenses, permits, safe supply chain, etc, to build the infrastructure to legally distribute the product (in the decriminalized states) and in the areas that have not decriminalized just leaves that potential extra greatly needed extra tax income to large criminal enterprises who also have invested lots of money they just don't have to pay the tax man and as we have all seen hurts the general population more than it helps.  So this is the same with the exchanges following all the FINCEN rules and spending all the money to get the MTL in EVERY State in the US, not cheap or easy I would imagine.  All those venture capitalists and angel investors are not going to just let their multi-million dollar investments just go away.

So, if China bans BTC through banks and exchanges in China who would most likely end up paying "the state" the taxes and licensing fees then the business would just go elsewhere, perhaps Hong Kong or Singapore or any "nearby" Asian countries that are Bitcoin "Friendly" and the people follow.  For those that know, many Chinese people enjoy gambling, rich or poor, legal or not, they do it... the Chinese have been "organized" as a country for 5000+ years(?), longer if the time before the Emperors "united" all the villages and what not and set up a centralized system is counted.  In any case, through out that time, the Chinese has had a good grasp on monetary transactions and systems while the "west" was still worried about falling off the edge of the world and still traded goats for wives.  There just based on the population there were/are many "wales" through out that history that would "invest" or "gamble", it is practically part of the culture.  Just look at the all the casinos over there, they are so crowded that you can't even get a seat most of the time, many people just "side bet" on whoever is already there.

In any case, there are most likely many "wales" or children of them that grew up in the "tech" era and understand Bitcoins and the great potential it has, just because the "old" regime and regulators are scared of it does not mean that they will be able to squash it.  Look at the internet, the "Great Firewall of China" has largely has failed.  Soon the old generation will "retire" and the new will continue to take control.

Another example of China's ability to "control" the increasingly capitalistic industry is all the tonnes of "grey market" drugs and even straight up black market drugs that are openly advertised and shipped all over the world.  They will sell kilos at $3k to anyone who would wire the money and the "government" doesn't stop this, obviously these things are made in huge chemical factories and many people are making a lot of money.  I'm pretty sure there are many many palms greased to continue to allow this, the industry is growing so much that they are even creating novel compounds instead of just manufacturing existing ones.  Where there is a demand there will be a supply.

I think that there are many "tech savvy" wales that are quietly buying Bitcoins so that they can "store" their wealth in a relatively anonymous way and even would be able to still cash it out relatively quietly, I'm sure there are many "off exchange" trades that happen, especially when US customs forces anyone who carries over 10k in cash into the country to declare the money.  So what better way than to get Bitcoin, have some relative, friend, other, convert it into cash for them?  No need to "declare" anything when coming here... I would even go as far to say that one day Casinos will accept bitcoins, quietly, from the "wales" as payment.

So with all the millions perhaps even getting close to a billion in just funds that are just "spent" on the Bitcoin infrastructure that will never show on the BTC Market Cap, that it would have to be some pretty horrid catastrophic event to have Bitcoin go away, what happened after SR went away?  BTC went UP!

Anyway, back to the "greenhouse" just because perhaps the market is saturated because you choose to plant and harvest on the wrong time schedule does not mean that demand or structure has gone away.  Just like fruits are cheaper when they are "in season" so is BTC, at least until the structure is completely built out, just the same as when we can import fruits from the other side of the world in the "off season" and have it be almost as cheap as when they are in season, once the structure and demand is there things will just go up.  IMHO

Another retarded piece of advice, following the "cost average" analysis, that hopefully new forum users or gullible ones don't fall for hopefully. Do you have a timeline before you remove your head out of your anus?

If you make $100 on the new purchase, then your break even point has improved by $100.
The amount has changed in your favor.

I dont think that the price will double within hours but I do think it will be violent and all the pigs will be slaughtered. Bears made their money shorting around the $700 after that clearly manipulated bounce back. The only people who are seriously worried are the people who a) invested more than they could afford to lose. B) want to become a millionaire over night and c) are generally new and havent experienced this before.

It all comes down to what the price will be tomorrow, in a month, year... If you are convinced that it would rise than you should buy. And if you buy it, and it goes down you would be in a even bigger loss, and the lower average cost that you would have isnt worth shit.

If the price falls, you turn from a bagholder to an even bigger bagholder  ;D
Buy @ own risk and only with money you can afford to lose.

If you bought above 400$ and didn't sell anything now, just hold. If you bought @0.1 -100, sell part of your coins and place a few orders.
We well retest the 266$ mark this year for sure. I don't know when, but we have not seen capitulation yet.

No one takes from anyone in a market, they give him their funds.  I happily try to relieve the masses of all of the funds they are willing to give me.

this is true. but to a point. if the percents are smaller it will be easier to turn a profit long term and anyones goal should be long term not short term cause short term is a gamble and almost unrealistic

I want an option to auto-ignore Newbies.

You didn't hit ignore on the newbie.  Big mistake.

DCA is pretty much the same thing as doubling down on a martingale.  You only do it when you have an edge.  If you have no edge, it will blow up on you.  Kelly 101.

You really need to wait for at least 1 green bar and a change in direction in the RSI to confirm the divergence. As presented, the chart is not quite ready.

Yes, this is why I validated it with "until it's neutralized..." I suppose I could have waited to post it considering the close below the lower BB and the MACD hooking down, but I didn't :P

I must ask what type of trader thinks it's a good idea to start shorting Bitcoin after it has fallen more than 50% from its top... 

My final buy order at $450 has been filled, I now hold BTC and wait for recovery over the coming months. Because, after all, the bull market is about to start! Elliot wave counters would agree - despite the herd disbelief in the coming bull trend and cries of "whale manipulation" as bad news is reiterated for the 5th time, Wave 1 is starting soon.

What has happened has happened. Trying to win back is foolish. Maintain your position if you believe it will go back up, not because you need it to go back up. Imagine a man at a casino, he just lost a lot on roulette. He wants to give it one more shot, because it could get him back to where he started. That is how you look. That is how a problem gambler thinks.

$450 is a huge return on investment for someone who invested @ $79 just 6 months ago what makes you sure the bull market is about to start?

Shorting above $900 was good and I bought back in @$590 I'm largely spent and so are you, how do you plan to turn the price around if your fiat gun is empty.