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From the Munich conference a few things have become clear.

After JD Vance's speech, which was like listening to a creature comming from another planet - not in a good sense - saying that Putin is not a threat to Europe, that the threat is not letting Putin take over Romania (implicitly) and not allowing disinformation campaigns, the the German representative tell him to basically f*ck off....

And then came the obvious conclusions, presented by several key French, German and Baltic leaders - with a Chorus by Zelensky - US is no longer a reliable ally. At any moment, Trump will decide that Europe need to "pay for protection" like he is doing with Ukraine (perhaps not even that, he is simply telling Ukraine to pay without protection).

So, there is no way around, Europe has to pay, but most of the leader are agreeing now that if it comes to spending on military, it will be done in by developing the local industries.

In my view, Europe has an unique opportunity to invest with the learnings of Ukraine - more unmanned vehicle, better defensive means, different tactics and, over all, a wide nuclear deterrence.

All this is costly, but it is the price of having Putin around, so...

BTW,... "I told you" like... a year ago.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5484886.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5484886.0)

So likely Europe have to be paying the US according to Trump just to get military protection?
Isn't that going to be a look down on them for incapability of developing their own military services? Of course yes because the Europ and the US has been on the context of rivalry strategically on power struggles.
Instead of the Europ keying in to the Trump condition why not they just invest all that money to enhance their own military facilities? I think that'd also give them some more confidence in case ....

So, according to you, is Putin a threat to Europe? I mean, what can he do? It's not like he's going to take whatever tanks he have left and drive to Berlin :D

IMO Putin is stuck in a position he never wanted to be. He thought he'd take Kiev by force, change the government to a pro-Russian one and from that point fake all elections like he's doing in Russia and in puppet states like Chechenya. Instead he lost a few refineries. Lost pump stations that allowed him to sell oil, lost gas pipeline, Baltic States are no longer buying his power... EU was supposed to freeze to death without Russian gas and nothing happened...

Vance is right, the US shouldn't support Ukraine for free.

You're on the right track to say something but you draw the wrong conclusions.

A war industry is a recipe for disaster because eventually you're not going to need so many wespons and then your factories will be worthless. Then your country will be billions in debt and because the machinery is so specific it can't be repurposed.

Have you considered, are we self sufficient as a continent? We produce oil and metals yet we export so much of it to the Americas and Asia for processing and then import the processed products. We need to rebuild our value added industry. We can't just be exporting our minerals. Countries in the south should be given subsidies to create processing plants locally to fulfill their local needs and not have to depend on American oil.

We should take care of these issues first. They would create so many jobs and make European countries more independent. But EU interests are just there to serve big capital and not what we really need.

We need cheap electricity but they benefit from high energy prices. Etc. you get the idea.
It's better we just get out of the EU if it keeps being like this. Euro federalism will never work. The increase in integration made it worse for everyone actually.

Putin is a threat to anything that is near Putin. I mean... Ruzzia invaded Finland not that long ago, they have gone after a number of countries around and now Ukraine. Do we need to get it Morse coded to our radios to understand?  His aim is to rebuild the extension of the old USSR and that includes the Baltics, the Balcans, Poland, half of Germany, Slovakia, ... One bit at a time, by subversion or invasion don't matter.

Of course he did not want to get into this position, but he seems ok with keeping it going. I think the rationale is "I am not going to run out of people, I am not going to be deposed or killed by anyone - Ruzzians will starve before revolting - the economy.. phew... I have enough money and the CEOs that complaint will be sent to Siberia.

To reach peace, Ukraine needs to push and gain ground in the Donbas. That would create a sufficiently unconfortable situation to make Ruzzia seek peace honestly and in fair terms.

US is not supporting Ukraine "for free", there is obviously an economic interest and a desire to avoid Ruzzia's being too strong from what looks like an innevitable conflict with China.

BTW, it is the Ukranian people who are dying, while the US complains about having to send over 0.5% of their GDP even if so in exchange for removing vasts amounts of vehicles that could potentially be passed to China in the future.

As an old pacifist, one starts to think if it would be smart to invest in some responsible European weapon industry, or to innovative companies that develop tech that can be used in weaponizing.

Investing to weapon tech is less unethical now, but because of responsibility (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_doctrine) of business is to increase its profits, they are basically going always to be lobbying pro-gun laws even if there's no wars. And that could lead up to situations like in US, and without good enough support networks, it just brings out more mass shootings and all that. Not to mention that there's no control over which entities ends up buying them in the end.

Which is all true, but not the only truth. Unfortunately to be very moral and responsible you need to be alive, have a country that works and do not be under the foot of a dictator. All those things are much easier when you have a sufficient deterrent.

Europe has been getting the "peace dividend" of bein under NATO umbrella, but that is no longer there so... time to act. As Borrel said, you cannot be a sheep in a world of wolves.

It is not too late for Europe to start developing military capacities because the US under Donald Trump cannot be trusted.  China was able to copy US military equipment and they are producing cheaper but effective versions.  Europe has been busy relying on the US for protection and investing little in defence. Reports showed that Poland and Estonia were the biggest spenders on defence among NATO nations in the first half of 2024, what are other big member states doing? They need to increase their defence budget to at least 5% of GDP to fund research and arms production.

Since the US has decided to be friendly with Russia, European nations would have to seek new partnerships. I am sure that some countries in Africa, Asia and South America will be willing to work with European countries..

Absolutely, there is a super-wide scope to work with Latin America. I think Europe would make for a much better partner that the US, given how confrontational and bully they have become. There are interesting news from the "new" Argentina that has become "investable".

For now Europe is unfortunately only talking about getting to the 2%. From there, either the US says no anyway, and then EU would need to go to 5% or keep NATO active and then 2% sufffices.

Europe's future doesn't look bright. Their policies had made them dependent on other nations and their manufacturing and industry is lagging behind. Europe is no longer the leader in R&D and their intellectual property are either expired or obsolete. They have no large natural resource reserve to exploit. They might fuel their nuclear generators through Uranium from Canada and Australia but they no longer have the capacity to create a new one.
The projection for 2030 states the top 5 economy to be US, China, India, Indonesia and Brazil. All of which are moving away from Europe due to their policies. Even though they trade with Europe, it would be Europe importing more and exporting nothing.

This is just like saying Europe have not been fighting Putin, those guys have been fighting Putin underground all along, it's just that they've not had physical combat which is what you think Europe should be prepared for by building strong military Base maybe across Europe. I remember the circumstances surrounding the sale of Chelsea football club by it's owner then Roman Abramovich, just because he was an ally of Putin and other sanctions that where placed on him,  all this goes to show that the crisis has been building up over time, if they decide to go physical then we shouldn't be too surprise.

Unfortunatelly it was expected USA would turn from a reliable ally to a shady mercenary under Trump's rulership. He let it very clear during the campaign by telling US wouldn't help NATO's countries which don't invest a determined percentage of their GDP in defense.

Now Trump openly attacks Zelensky with lies and misinformation. There are no doubts anymore about the bad character of Trump, as he acted like a scoundrel, just to praise Putin and maybe, to earn some sympathy from him. What an erroneous move... There isn't any better strategy than being true and honored towards the situations presented by life. But Trump prefers being the "joker" of the cards, which fits anywhere, depending the current necessity and goal.

Now Europe is by itself. And considering the decadence they are facing regards society and culture, especially with most recent generations, they are really in bad shape to display strength and confidence against enemies. Actually, the enemies are already in european countries, destroying them from inside...

totally agree with u, europe needs to put its own house in order before it can even think about rebuilding its military, and that means addressing the internal rot, cultural and societal decay, before it can project strength and confidence against external enemies

;D

That is interesting, but it has not happened, so... I guess you are very proud of not predicting correctly? Following the results of the war in Ukraine, Ruzzia has shown that is unable to take a country 20 times smaller??

Europe has the economic and industrial strengh to create an European army. There has been an understanding between the US and Europe on regards to global security that has worked more or less, but there is no reason why there cannot be another,

I think we have to thank your dictator for this change, it may actually be good for Europe to grow.

Really? The conflict in Ukraine is a hybrid proxy war between Russia and the US for influence in Europe. It seems that Europe is no longer interesting to the US.

That is not a fact, it is your interpretation. Europe has not become a protectorate of Ruzzia, but it certainly getting ready to provide Ukraine with means of self defence... so, nothing like you predicted. Â Just keep it there and wait, who knows... maybe in 100 or 200 years your descendants will claim you were right or something like that.

Look, I know you watch the Ruzzian TV, that is not a problem, the problem is that you seem to actually believe it.

https://www.worldeconomics.com/Images/Blogs/EuropeRussia1.png

Nothing unites more than a common enemy.

But congratulations, your GDP is more than Spain. Or it was before Ukraine's drone strikes in the oil facilities, the embargo,... etc ;D

https://platform.vox.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/chorus/assets/4792056/russiagdp.png

Russia is more interested in defending herself than influencing other nations. True influence comes naturally to more intelligent people or nations... It's not imposed. It's like a father having great influence over his children because he knows more than they do and uses the knowledge for their own good.  Such influence is also equal to power, the more influencial the more powerful one become.
As an influential person, if you support certain things because you know they are right, they work. If you are against certain things because they are wrong, they fail. It's basically you passing judgment based on how things naturally/spiritually works, and the judgement becomes true.
This natural influence is not like the aggressive influence people try to force or impose on others, especially through incentives, brainwashing, sanctions, etc. You just do the right thing and it works.

The conflict in Ukraine is as a result of Russia defending herself, protecting her borders and her people from nations/people with agenda to colonize, weaken or breakup her up.. This is basically why Donbas and Crimea were taken. They do not want to be part of system that despises Russia.. It's actually very risky for them to stay after a 2014 forceful removal of Pro-Russia President who believes that Ukraine is better off aligning with Russia than nations that are more interested in Russia's defeat and breakup.

Yea looks like Europe does have a dilemma not that Trump has decided to get back to friendly
terms with Russia. It seems that Europe will not be enjoying the same backup from the US it
had just a number of weeks ago. I know there will be  lot of people calling that we shouldnt
be spending resources on more military but while the war is ongoing in Ukraine Europe is
less safe.


NO - this is why Russia invaded Ukraine > https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20le8jn282o


Its all about resources

So according to you he'd like to build a new USSR, because the countries you've mentioned (apart from the Baltics) were never a part of the Soviet Union, but Ukraine was!
Putin treats the former Soviet Union countries like they're a part of Russia, which is why he attacked Chechenya, but he knows Poland, Germany and Slovakia are ethnically different and would never submit.
Also, if we're talking about the former Warsaw Pact, why mention Poland and Slovakia, but not Hungary or Czech Republic? They were held exactly the same status in the Soviet Union -as allies.
Unfortunately that's long gone and they have allied themselves with the West.

Even if there was no NATO, Russia would not have enough firepower to conquer these countries. They'd get spread thin transporting troops and vehicles 2000 km into enemy territory and eventually cut off and they know it.


Russian word means nothing. The way they handled The Budapest Memorandum is the latest example of why nobody should ever trust Russia.
To remind you: The memoranda,(...) prohibited Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

I accept the correction, but it matters little as those countries were not USSR, but they were Warsaw Pact, so clearly under the foot. You just need to remember the Soviet tanks in Prage.

On the ethnical argument, you are aware that there was a wall in the middle of Germany and those east of it were under the foor right? "ethnicity" will not stop it.

I mentioned a few... but sure... I mean, they can try even France of Spain, why not.

Would have believed that if Russia had not cared more for the people. Besides she went in at the right time after giving them the chance to do the right thing and probably retain the land and people. But they were more concern about cutting off relation with Russia or removing any trace of Russia from their lives.

By the way, Russia doesn't seem that desperate for resources otherwise certain countries that were put under her care would've complained about exploitation. She could easily use her powers to takeover the resources to compensate for her sacrifice, which if she does, she would still deserve it. Sometimes I feel the countries don't need to be told to properly compensate her for the sacrifices. They should know the right thing to do. But we keep watching to see if they will be very grateful.

We have been long enough and well entrenched in the conflicts to understand the issue, know the feelings and true intentions of both sides. It seems one cares for and welcomes everyone not caring too much whether they support the nation of their enemies, while the other keep hunting down certain people for supporting the nation of their enemies.

Anyway, the land goes to the ones who love the people more, be it Russia or Ukraine. The right country has been allowed to take charge of the land on behalf of the people they truely love..

It's not right to love the resources more than the people who own it

You really need to remember that this is post-1991 Russia, not the USSR.

8)

I saw a video of Macron and Trump meeting yesterday, where they were patting each other's knees. Macron flew to Washington to make a strong statement about Europe's support for Ukraine, and left as a fan of Trump's peace plan. Europe can't do anything alone, because it is not a subject.

Europe has been dependent on the United States for so many decades now and I don't know why they don't want to strengthen their security and work on themselves while reducing the reliance on the United States. Ukraine war supposed to have ended since but the influence of the United States during the Biden regime had made things more worse and severe for the less dependant of the European Union on the United States when it comes to decision making. Because of the United States, the European Union is in big shit unsubscribing from the Russian gas supply which is becoming a heavy blow on many European countries.

Europe cannot do anything together because is not what?? You probably mean is not a single country under a dictator?

You probably have not heard about the European Union. It is not a single country, but when it comes to doing things together, eventually they do things together. Decades ago it was just a free trade zone, now has a political union and well, I guess we have to thank Putin for making Europe now have to be a military alliance.

I have seen the video too. If Macron is smiling I can already tell you that he got what he went to seek.

Macron held several meetings with Putin and phone calls at the beginin of the war, however he was not able to stop the war. Now Macron has spoken with Trump about deploying EU troops in Ukraine. Trump only cares about not spending resources in Ukraine because either he is being paid by Putin (likely) or he really does not get how important is to have Europe as ally.

Either way it does not matter, if there are European troops in Ukraine, the development of the country and the business opportunities that come with it should be good enough to create the European army. Ukraine will become a military production world class power and most likely Europe will launch an enhanced nuclear weapons programme - many countries were wondering what to do with all that Plutonium from the nuclear reactors anyway.

Because it is not subjective. Europe is very heterogeneous and consists of many countries. In some of these countries, during the conflict in Ukraine, there was a "rightward turn", and forces more oriented towards nationalism came to power. And this makes it difficult to develop a unified position in the European Parliament, because all important decisions in Europe must be taken unanimously. In terms of developing a unified foreign policy, Europe is paralyzed.

That's what Putin tought. You may remember that at the begining of the invasion of Ukraine, Putin sent individual letters to the countries in the EU. What he got back was a single letter from the EU.

Europe always looks paralised, and it never is. It simply advances thorugh a complex process of multilateral negotiations, which is slow, but never stops.

On the far left rise in Germanym France and Italy, I think is mostly due to inmigration. I think that this will eventually be addressed by the traditional parties because they understand they will loose power if they do not.

If you are talking about Orban, well, he is the laughing Clown of Europe. The German far right is pretty much isolated, despite good results in elections.

You may have observed that the moment the far right gets to government, they start taking good distance with Putin. People in Europe can simply tell that is not a good idea to have a strong Ruzzia particularly if it is too close.

Here, have some paralysis:

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-leaders-weigh-bypassing-spending-restraints-for-massive-defense-package/ (https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-leaders-weigh-bypassing-spending-restraints-for-massive-defense-package/)

https://vreme.com/en/svet/fon-der-lajen-evropa-mora-hitno-da-se-naoruza/ (https://vreme.com/en/svet/fon-der-lajen-evropa-mora-hitno-da-se-naoruza/)

Now, if that happens, would you say that (a) weapons will be kept in depots in Europe or (b) they will be sent where they are needed (yes, that is Ukraine).