Bitcoin Forum

Well, I think it's about time we call a spade a spade. Just as there was talk of the Trump pump after his election, in which there was a market rally that he boasted about, and even specifically boasted about bitcoin going over $100K, it is clear that this crash, which is on track to be like 2008 or worse, has only one culprit: Donald Trump.

So, I propose to call this dump the Trump Dump.

It is true that Trump had tariffs on his election agenda, but I think the implementation has been key to the disaster in the markets.

There is a lot at stake here, as he boasted a lot of how the stock market behaved in his first term, and there are a lot of people in the USA exposed to the markets, I speak from memory but I think it is more than half of the population. Many through pension funds.

The problem is that when you cause a market like this you don't know how it's going to end. Maybe there could be a quick recovery that may not recover for the whole legislature.

What do you think?

stock markets are just correcting to prices a year ago....... yawn.
not yet entertaining enough of discount to buy the dip, nor really a dip enough to enter history books and have discussions about in 100 years
its about the same as trade wars of 2018, and who talks about that or named it.. um no one


media want to call it a 'disaster', 'a crash', 'trade war'.. but pfft not yet that dramatic... still needs time to play out

the dip is not even low enough to even give it a global event name.. though media are trying to sensationalise it and call it some devastating name

but yes you could consider the last 6 months as the "trump pump&dump", but still not as exciting as a 'bitcoin ATH correction'

Sadly the celebrated "crypto president" is now leading the sector to a big time drop. Trump's steadfastness that these tariffs are the means to make the US great is a big concern.  He seems not to be listening to the advice of severe economic experts. He has told Americans to be patient because they will go through hard times to enjoy a great America. Trump also said the stock market should "take medicine", which is just annoying.

My position is that the US cannot sustain these tariff wars. Within few weeks there will be negotiations and he would back down on some of them. Immediately there are signs of compromise, the market will gradually recover. For now, I think we are indeed going through a "Trump Dump" because he is the sole cause of this market dump.

Many people now regret voting for Trump, possibly even within the crypto community, as we initially rode the hype of his promise to support Bitcoin with crypto-friendly policies. However, I believe what's happening has nothing to do with Trump. Bitcoin has always been independent especially with the stock market. What we're seeing now looks more like a market correction, leading us into a bear market, especially since we already hit an ATH earlier this year.

So just chill.  :D

Recently, there has been a close relationship or interconnectivity between the stock market and Bitcoin price. The former belief that Bitcoin is independent of the stock market is not realistic anymore because each time the stock market falls, the price of Bitcoin also experiences a decline. The situation of the market now is caused by mainly Trump's tariff policies.

Not only crypto but the stock market as well.

https://i.redd.it/08vwzd7sg2te1.png

I sold all my stocks except MSTR on April 1 (the day before "Liberation Day") and put the money into treasuries and gold and silver. Funnily enough the latter crashed too.

The scary thing is that he will be the President for the next four years so who knows what kind of economic policy that he will introduce to have negative effect on all the markets that we have right now.

So yeah, it's obvious that we now have the Trump Dump and it's really like very exhausting for us to see the price going down hard again at $76k and still counting and God who knows how long the market will endure this dump or if there is a light at the end of the tunnel for crypto market. And we can't do anything but to just be a observer, I do not think though that selling is the best course of action.

you know how the media likes to exaggerate everything to generate clicks the crazier
the news they push the more people will talk about it and spread fud
the thing is though the tariffs were not intended for bitcoin you could say that bitcoin was just collateral with all of this but the announcement of reserve? total pump move

I doubt Trump will back down. He's a very proud man and his ego won't allow him to do that. Also, he believes what he's doing is right for the country; that's the way he sees things, so unless people can help him see things differently, there will be no backing down.

I believe the market will recover, but the tariffs will remain. There might only be reductions in the increase. Inflation will set in, but not a very large one and people will adjust to it with time. Time is going to be a major factor in this. People seem to move on after times like this.
They have already clearly seen that they made a mistake in voting for Trump, even though ego won't let some of them admit it.
Anyone with a right-thinking brain should have known that voting for a man who promised to increase tariffs is crazy.

For the time being everything is going to continue showing red. The shock Trump gave to the US economy and the global economy as well is going to dump the markets all over the place.

Then we have big economies retaliating, specially China that is the strongest economy that is also retaliating hard against Trump tariffs by adding its own severe tariffs on anything US made. The consequences of that is going to push all these markets even lower.

Then the combination of inflation and recession that is caused by all this craziness will put its increasing sell pressure on bitcoin and push that down as well...

If he managed to turn the world upside down in just a few months (in a negative sense), then we should all justifiably wonder what lies ahead - because everything he does will obviously have more or less negative effects on the US and the rest of the world. Even if by some miracle everything calms down, all US allies and trading partners will no longer look at that country the same way after this.

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As for the name of this dump, I would still name it after those who voted and believed in that policy, maybe the T-herd dump?

The price of Bitcoin has not fallen dramatically, and I agree with Frankie here, the media (as always) is pushing their narrative about some catastrophes and the end of the world. They are just scaring people, and in reality, they are moving the focus from real stuff that needs to worry us. We have seen too many such situations, so just relax and don't think too much about what they say on the news and various experts, it's all one big propaganda.

Fair enough. We had Trump pump and now we have Trump dump, which can also be considered expectation against reality.

Not that Bitcoin was pumping exclusively due to Trump factor back then, although it was indeed an important boost to push Bitcoin to a new ATH faster, just like now Bitcoin isn't dumping exclusively because of Trump, as the tendency of the market is to be naturally reverted from times to times, composing the cycles of highs and lows.

Anyway, those who want to be saluted for the glorious times have to be prepared to be played accountable for the bad times as well.

meanwhile, whilst everyone is screaming 'red' 'red' 'red' 'sell sell sell'
others are whispering 'ill buy this while cheap'

when you sell there needs to be a willing buyer
so if your seeing your sell as a loss, then obviously its a win for the buyer

It's definitely too early to draw conclusions, but unfortunately many people may be making wrong decisions due to the irresponsibility of media. It seems that we will be able to speak more properly about the effects of tariffs next Wednesday, but speculation is wreaking havoc.

Whatever happens, a colleague has already said it before: there are still four years left in the mandate (a few months less), so fasten your seatbelts.

businesses cannot trade their own stock in response to their own internal information, as thats insider trading. and so the "going red" is not due to the companies actual performance or value.

businesses wont release info about the impact due to tariffs until they do their Q2 financial results in ~july
that then shows how tariffs have cost/benefitted the business

until then its just speculation. where investors and media(outsiders) are guessing how something may be bad or good depending on sentiment, emotion and guesses

media and outsiders can gain some info.. such as if General Motors is re-vamping their car assembly plant and by late april THIS YEAR(only a couple weeks away) they will be back in production of assembling more "us made" cars..

where as if stellantis is spending alot of money to take 2 years to create a whole entire 'from foundation' full manufacturing facility in america. meaning new model stellantis cars in america wont happen for 2 years.. then outsiders can speculate more green sooner for GM and more red for Stellantis for longer

He is a rich old man, drunk on power, that will never suffer the consequences or experience first hand the vast amount of wealth that has been wiped out for the bottom 80% of society. Maybe it is part of his master plan, along with things like undermining the judiciary and eliminating the department of education, to crush any resistance that might be around when he tries to take on an illegal 3rd term in office. He takes credit for every bit of good news he can squeeze or spin, but blames everyone else when his disaster unfolds in such an obvious way. Markets like stability and predictability, which feed into people keeping jobs and having a reasonable pension to retire on, but the latest moves are going to damage the lives of billions around the world.

I don't have any issue with calling it the Trump Dump.  Just make sure to call it the Trump pump if the next 4 years sees a new all time high for Bitcoin (which I personally believe it will). 

In reality, I think we're seeing a tug of war happening with Bitcoin at the moment.  People who are in a position to be able to stack are stacking hard, while others who speculate are probably dumping their coins to try and keep their stock portfolios from being liquidated.  Just remember it is ok to criticize, just be prepared to give props as well for a job well done.

bitcoin (unrelated to trump and stocks) is yet to experience the true 2025 ATH..
we will see the move happen soon enough and it will have nothing to do with trump. but the normal 4 year cycle of bitcoin
then after the autumn/winter ATH in 2025. there will be the slow decline "correction" 2026-27 which again wont be related to trump
then in 2028 we will see the "pricing the halving in" period of the bull beginning of the next cycle

lets not try to attribute all bitcoin action to "trump". lets remember bitcoin has its own economic reasons to move

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as for  the trump pump and dumps of the stock market. well if we see this year as the correction back down to 2024 levels. and then markets go green 2026-2030 everyone in 2031  would be looking back and will be saying how 2025 drama was small trump dump correction and then 2026-2030 trumps pump

No obvious relation between tariffs and BTC comes to mind, so this might just be trigger-happy people on the buy (November) and sell (now) buttons.

I couldn't have said it better myself. In fact, I was quite sceptical when Trump suddenly had a change of heart regarding cryptocurrencies; I knew this wasn't going to end well. He's the reason for both the stock market crash and cryptocurrency of course, while his policies are going to increase the price of goods even further, especially for U.S.A. citizens, who haven't yet realized how much of their stuff is imported from China and the EU.

On the one hand, I don't believe that the market will crash much further, but on the other hand, I find it a little concerning. I want to believe that this won't be the start of a major bear market, driven by Trump's policies.

So we are looking at a Coca Cola dashBoard. All red.

And sadly it seems like we just starting
Won't be surprised if he states anything to cause a temporary pump and then dump harder.
I think we left the bull market some months ago without realizing
And we should be getting to the peak of a bear market soonest.
Then maybe a recovery, Keeping our favorite president constant.

Definitely. And it could be the first ever pump in bitcoin history.

It's a chain of events.
The way Trump is isolating US it is speeding up dedollarisation. Even BRICS is speeding up its process of completely replacing the dollar. With dollar dumping hard and crashing, bitcoin can easily skyrocket at a speed that we've never seen before.

All because of what Trump is doing today which is to put simply: showing the US regime without a mask ;)

How about calling a spade a spade and recognizing that the tariffs he intends to impose are a socialist measure that can only be imposed by a fool who has no idea how the basic principles of economics work? He wants to put 37% tariffs on Bangladesh. He has pulled out of his sleeve tariffs calculated on the trade deficit because it seems that the fool doesn't understand that trade deficit is good. So what does he want? He wants the Bangladeshis to buy a lot from the USA? Reagan, whom he praises so much, ran a huge trade deficit and managed to make the US economy prosper enormously, see what Laffer says about it.

What he has to do is to remove regulations and lower taxes, but without socialist measures and other nonsense pulled out from under his sleeve.

This seems like classic weak hands being shaken out. After yesterday's sharp drop, Bitcoin has already rebounded to $80K, an incredibly fast recovery from what looked like a collapse. But honestly, we shouldn't be surprised by these violent swings anymore; they've become the norm in crypto markets. While some might link this volatility to Trump's recent policies, the truth is these wild fluctuations can happen anytime in our space.

just because trump has become so heavily involved with crypto does not mean the market now revolves around him and his policies while bitcoin may get affected, not everything is caused by trump directly and this prices might not be one of those as well

i think that after bitcoin got to below $80k a lot of people saw this as an opportunity to buy and the demand was so high and sudden that it just got back up this just shows how much trust the community has for bitcoin

China did the same to impose tariff to all US products, I think other countries should follow China especially countries who're in BRICS+, what's the point to join this organization if they're scared to become US opponents.

Who cares with stock market?

Stock market which mostly US based companies are make sense in red because the tariff imposed by Trump do affect his own country. Bitcoin, gold, silver or any global assets who're not depend on single country, shouldn't get a big affect over one country new regulation.

This should be a lesson to those countries who have selfishly supported the US to oppress other nations. They have also helped the US to carry out economic terrorism on perceived enemies. Now it is clear that what goes around comes around and they are now complaining. I think this is just the beginning of the economic war.

The BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro in July 2025 will be very interesting. We might see countries that have been disappointed and devastated by the US showing interest in joining the Union. This is because they are now aware that the US is reshaping the global economy to enslave many people.

Did we have it? As far as I remember, the price reached a new ATH while Biden was still president, and this clown with dangerous intentions did nothing for anyone but himself and the court fools who surround him. The reality is that there are too many naive people in the world who believed in false promises, and some still believe in them. If they haven't already, I think that in the coming months they will realize that most politicians lie and deceive people because it's in their job description.

And even for those presidents that only wants the best for the economy can sometimes fail and the economy still experience the worse. So it is much easier if they will do the bad stuff already as they wish for the economy to become negative. That was crazy. What were they thinking? I don't think they can get a benefit by doing this.

Anyways, the market has been dumping already ever since before and they say that it was also mainly because of Trump. Too bad that it now have gotten worse. It is not god is the one that can endure the market or the pain but it was us. God still have a mercy though, so he might do some miracles only to normalize things again.

Lying in politics is a common issue, the political leaders of each country make such promises before being elected. I think political leaders in America use some exceptional initiatives. While Biden was president, many said that if the newly elected candidate came in the next election, we would see a great ATH in Bitcoin. And many thought that Bitcoin would be pushed to a new horizon when Donal Trump came to the polls. Because Trump expressed a lot of negative attitude about Bitcoin. What we are seeing now is the temptation of political leaders. Because Bitcoin is a digital currency that is stirring in the world that people are viewing as high income mediums and are likely to get a high return after a long time. Before Trump was elected, he discussed the matter very well and people think that if Trump is elected, Bitcoin will go many steps ahead. But now we can see that political leaders are just tempting.

However, since Bitcoin is not controlled by any political or legal discipline. We hope that all the leaders of the world, starting with Donald Trump, should have negative confidence in Bitcoin.

When Reagan was in office, the national debt wasn't heading to $37 trillion and most importantly US was still a superpower so they could strongarm most countries into obeying their unreasonable and oppressive demands. So when Reagan in the Plaza hotel in NYC ordered the 4 stronger than US economies (specifically Japan)  to destroy their own economies so that US economy can survive, they obeyed blindly.

Today when US regime issues the same order to the stronger than US economies like China, the response is the middle finger!

That's why Trump policies are not working... otherwise there is nothing really new about them.

What he has to do is to significantly reduce expenses. That means stopping the wars and support of terrorism and terrorist organizations.

For example in the past 20 days he wasted billions of dollars in the Red Sea in support of the genocide that is taking place in Gaza trying to break the blockade on the Zionist terrorists .... and failed!
On other places the CIA is hemorrhaging money like in Sudan, in Syria, in Afghanistan like their failed project last month which was like a coup attempt in order to destabilize and revive ISIS-k which is another billion dollar project that has failed so far.

That was just a small number of destabilizing projects, if he shuts them down he'll save on hundreds of billions of American taxpayer's dollars. I dare say that's the entire budget deficit which is going to be $1.9 trillion this year.
But he'll not do that because he is neither allowed to nor capable of changing the US regime's policies. Instead he'll impose tariffs on majority of countries and destroy the US economy even more :S

I think the mentality behind Trump's aggressive tariff hikes is that other countries have been ripping off from the American economy over the years and it's high time someone addresses that, but it's quite unfortunate that the direction of his reciprocal tariff levies are just irrational and ill-conceived and as a result its affecting the global economy harshly.

Of course we expect negotiations would be put in place especially from those countries with small economies that are left with no viable options. But for China I think the president said they won't bow to Trump's "tariff blackmail" and would respond appropriately. So we don't know how long this economic war is going to last and what more effects to expect.

I was very pleased with the Chinese response, even if it means an intense trade war that will surely affect us negatively around the world.


Yesterday I heard him say the hallucination that if the USA has debt it is because the other countries have taken advantage of it with the tariffs, when everyone knows that the situation in the USA is not very different from the rest of the countries, which are hyper-indebted, with an ever-increasing debt, due to the tendency of modern states to spend more and more thanks to Fiat money, and in the case of the USA among other things for financing war conflicts all over the world.

Prices on the market are down, both on the stock and crypto markets. "Time to buy assets" - the last time Trump said this same phrase was during the collapse during Covid-19 in 2020 and also in 2018 - it was close to the economic bottom in time.

Well, in principle, if someone has free funds for investment (I no longer believe that such people exist), then now you can think about buying Bitcoin. Either in one transaction or in parts by DCA. It's individual. In general, Trump has already lost a lot of money himself, after the fall. Perhaps he really is creating a low base for investment.

When economic discussions like this are brought forward many say this doesn’t have correlation with bitcoin but it is not true this an economic situation in as much as it does come directly to bitcoin there are things in which tariffs would affect and this things in turn affect investments too. Tariffs increase are simply going to be affecting importation of goods and ones retailers pay high on this goods it transcends into consumers spending more than they actually spend.

We all know whenever there is increases in consumers spendings those who are investors in other to get this sorted out they simply just cut loss on volatile assets like stocks and bitcoin hence reason why there is a sell in bitcoin. This is liken to periods of recession in my opinion. So yes it directly affects bitcoin fundamentally

Although Trump's current policies are truly bad for the market, I'm giving the MAGA Masterminds the benefit of the doubt behind their decisions. There's probably a noble cause behind their decisions. Plus, personally, I'm not actually sure HOW LONG before we see a market recovery, but Scott Bessent said before the election that, "we are going to have a grand economic reordering" that's probably sort of something like Bretton Woods.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It's not going to be easy.

Although "reciprocation" is a necessity when facing economic bullying! but I am more pleased when I see the economic blocs get strengthened after this like ASEAN, SCO and of course BRICS. Countries need to start ignoring US and start trading amongst themselves more, after all US population is only 4% of the world. That would alleviate the negative sides of this tariff war as well.

I don't say if Trump is a good or bad president for the US but one thing is for sure that his plan of implementing tariffs isn't working as expected. Although many countries have approached the US and asking for trade on less or no tariffs, the china didn't surrender. So it does not matter what the rest of the world react to tarrifs, if there is no negotiations with China, this war will continue.

Recently, it is known that China has started dumping the US Treasuries bonds and it has weakened the dollar. This move by China is a move to shift this tariff war to the financial war  :(

US Treasuries Sell Off as Trade War Calls Haven Status Into Question (https://www.morningstar.com/markets/us-treasuries-sell-off-trade-war-calls-haven-status-into-question)

Trump Dump, lol, I like the sound of that. It could maybe make some of these republicans finally realize why everyone begged them not to vote for Trump, well to be fair democrats also didn't go out to vote for Kamala neither, that was bad for American people. As a non-American, I still thought Kamala was better, even though she wasn't great, she wouldn't have done any of this, and ruin America all together.

In the end, it is your own demise, and you guys dig the grave, if you really want to stay there, then that is your decision and nobody forced you to elect him. Trump will keep doing worse and worse things when he realizes nothing happens, nobody can impeach him, nobody can touch him, he can do whatever he wants, and there is no power to stop him. So, we are going to see him go even more wild.

Aaand ... we're back up. Even if it's only caused by a temporary reduction of the tariffs for 90 days to 10%.

Which brings us to a question: was this part of the plan? I think it's quite likely that yes, as it follows the path of Trump's initial tariff measures against his neighbors Mexico and Canada.

But could there more behind it? Biggest insider trading scandal in history, perhaps? Elon's reported dispute with Trump could of course be fake.

Well, besides of conspiracy theories (which are fun to speculate about in this case), Bitcoin has resisted the Trump Dump quite strongly, not overreacting (i.e. only mirroring the stock market dump) and thus it's already on its previous level of 82k again, although of course this could only be a temporary spike.

That's what I think. Some of his advisors are actually insider pump and dumpers.

Do you remember what Musk did with bitcoin? That was pure price manipulation, but he wasn't the first.
They all saw how China tested the waters back in 2017 and then they started investigating exchanges and finally banned them. While this was happening there were twitter accounts claiming to be insiders who were saying that they have info from sources inside the government that the will/will not ban exchanges completely and that they will/will not ban mining and ownership of cryptocurrencies. Each time this happened the price would either pump or dump a little and this eventually turned into one of the longest bear markets in history.

People are not stupid. Everybody saw that and learned that this could be done and later many attempted this. For instance McAfee pumped coins with his predictions and Musk did the same by first building up tension through cryptic posts and finally revealing that Tesla would start accepting bitcoin payments. Then he sold and said that bitcoin was not eco-friendly, which of course caused a small price crash, but was a blatant lie that he never had to apologize for. Then we saw Trump's coin go from $60 to $8, so they made money on that shitcoin and decided to try something bigger.

I saw Trump on stage telling people to buy the dip. The US president giving investment advice on TV? Should there be a paragraph for that, or is he untouchable now?


Oh they are talking for sure. I think that Mr. Autism got rugpulled as well because he was supposed to get some of those Ukrainian resources, but since there's no peace there's also no mining going on. Meanwhile Tesla lost something like 50% and tariffs will of course affect his production in Germany, Canada and China.

Trump is trying to appease Musk by giving him a contract to make rockets for the military, but will that be enough? ;)

Do you know what is the biggest difference between China and the US? China is trying to establish world dominance in a rather quiet way (if we can call it that), while the US does not want to get rid of the role of a world supervisor who does not choose the means to reach the goal. What connects both countries is the fact that they benefit greatly from each other, from the fact that 7 of the 10 largest seaports are in China, to the fact that many US companies have their production facilities in China where people make American products for a salary of approximately $400 a month.

Can someone tell me how much an iPhone would cost if it were manufactured in the US?

Labor costs in the U.S. are significantly higher compared to other countries. For example, with an average minimum wage of
$15 per hour. an 8 hour wrok would equal to $120 per day or over $3000 per month ( (assuming one day off per week). ) This creates a substantial competitive disadvantage - American-made products become more expensive, making consumers more likely to purchase equally good but cheaper alternatives from countries like China and South Korea. Ultimately, this pricing pressure could negatively impact the U.S. economy.

The funny thing is that Trump warned everyone yesterday that it's time to buy cryptocurrencies, and a few hours later, he announced that he was introducing a 90-day pause on the introduction of tariffs, and only for China was he leaving the conditions as they were before, changing the tariff by 125 percent.
I didn't think we'd see such a strong influencer after Elon Musk, but it actually feels like this is a historic moment where we can all see the number one cryptocurrency influencer in the world.

To bad for Trump it seems he realize that he made a mistake for implementing tariffs for lots of countries in the world.

I think China will still be the winner of this since their enemy is just US, while US they create lots of potential enemies because they also give unacceptable tariff rates to many countries.

With these for sure many countries are exploring to search for alternative markets since for sure that they can at least minimize the possible damage on other implementation of tariff or other bullying attacks of US. Trumps seems want to be always relevant in the scene so It's more better for people to stop listening to him and better focus on their accumulation if they are ready to buy Bitcoin also with other alts.

The United States is having to bear more costs than other countries. After the election of Donald Trump, there was talk of a market upswing and that the price of Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2025. But now, due to the flow of economic pressure, the market has lost its momentum. Due to this flow of pressure in the market, investors are facing risks. Although the market has now woken up a bit, it is still not known how long it will take for Bitcoin to reach its previous level. However, I did not like these actions of Donald Trump at all. How could he do this. He should have considered his own country and its citizens.

for a retail ready product to be classed as "us made" it only needs to be ASSEMBLED and packaged in the USA

it does not require US raw materials melted and machined / formed into parts.
so they can still get batteries, screen, mainboard from cheap labour countries.. and then just use a machine to put the parts together and print out the packaging to put the complete phone in the box in america as "US made"

so price difference wont be much

however if there is a US-asia tariff at normal customs port... and no tariff at special freeport/FTZ ports
apple will have an parts facility at a freeport FTZ port in asia, and an assembly plant at a freeport/FTZ port in the US

aswell as apple/alibaba(retailers) which sends complete retail ready phones to normal customs ports

so a US citizen using for instance alibaba or chinese apple retailer to buy imported retail products from asia will be charged the foreign countries sales tax, and the US tariff for asia

apple(manufacturing) will have sister company in asia. and so transfer PARTS via freeport-FTZ ports to not be charged any sales tax or tariff.. assemble parts in america. and then print the userguide/box as made in US and etch the backplate of iphone as made in the usa.
and so a us citizen buying an iphone from US retailer will only charge US citizen the US sales tax (no tariff)

so the minimal extra cost of assembling in US will be saved by the lack of tariff
so the citizen ends up seeing a "US made" iphone equal or cheaper than a "asia made"+tariff iphone imported through normal customs port

note:
if there was a from raw US material: US lithium(battery), silica(US chips), copper(us circuit board) US glass(screen) and made parts in US and assembled in US would cost alot more in america, compared to asia

so many businesses are going for the "assembly plant" in US business model.. not the full manufacturing in Us model as a reaction to tariff war

note words: "Assembled" "components made in china"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-11-17/how-will-president-donald-trump-s-new-tariffs-affect-apple-products-and-prices-m3lnfx64
https://talkimg.com/images/2025/04/10/xGg15.png

Meanwhile the spokeswoman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs is tweeting this funny photo after the video of Trump MAGA hats went viral where the label read "Made in China" :D
https://x.com/spoxchn_maoning/status/1910206001879613935#m

https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/04/10/xMAsa.jpeg (https://www.talkimg.com/image/xMAsa)

Yes, and he also posted a recommendation on Truth Social to buy stocks.

There's now indeed an "official" market manipulation accusation against Trump initiated by Senator Adam Schiff and others, see this article (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/10/donald-trump-ignites-insider-trading-accusations-after-global-tariffs-u-turn) for example.

The alternative explanation is that the shift was part of the plan, but not with the goal of enriching themselves, but to pressure other governments to initiate negotiations to lower tariffs.

This is also the narrative the Trump government members (e.g. Karoline Leavitt) are now using to defend themselves. However: If you already know that you'll retract a measure and the market reaction is predictable, nobody would have used this information personally to profit? This is also quite naive ...

As far as I remember Trump's policy, he has always been partial to China in the bad sense of these words. Only recently, he said that, in principle, he was ready to somehow normalize these relations (I didn’t believe it when I read this quote). But now it’s clear that it was just for words. And already at the moment, the tariff with China is 145 percent.

And regarding tariffs for absolutely all countries at one moment, I can only explain this by the fact that he wanted to create a shock effect and this is confirmed by the fact that he introduced a 90-day freeze on this law.

According to some experts' predictions, if Apple moves its manufacturing plants to the US, iPhone prices could triple from current prices. An iPhone would cost $3.5k if it were made in the US.

Not to mention, to produce iPhones in the US and have enough supply to meet the market, the first thing they need to do is build a supply chain, create a production ecosystem...this will cost a lot of money and time. It could take several years to complete.

There are many challenges that companies will face if they move manufacturing to the United States. Personally I don't think businesses will disobey Trump on this issue since his term is only 4 years.

https://iili.io/3cnwf5b.md.png
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/09/tech/apple-iphones-cost-tariffs-impact-intl-hnk/index.html

I don't really see how people would have learned anything. Back then, they complained about Musk, saying: "Oh, but that was market manipulation!" Today, people again complain: "Oh, but that was market manipulation!" But does it have any consequences?

thats where the difference between manufacturing plants vs assembly plants business model is in play
many businesses are going for the assembly plant at ports plan not the full manufacturing plant model

getting up and running and producing is faster, cheaper via the assembly route

..
as for your "experts".. oh come on.. a asian reporter for CNN. good laugh. his business buddies in asia dont want to see full production in US as it takes business away from them so his bias is to report bad news and worse case in regards to those types of stories.. but even he knows the "assembly plant" method is best for everyone around

most of apples $500b investment is in the servers for its cloud and AI projects.  "advanced manufacturing fund"
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/02/apple-will-spend-more-than-500-billion-usd-in-the-us-over-the-next-four-years/

The Chinese seem to have decided to make fun of the US in recent days, because you can't just be serious about what Dony is doing with his "advisors". Will the next move be "let's kick everything Chinese out of the US?"

https://x.com/damengchen/status/1909288019750011006
https://x.com/pallavict/status/1908588983820365957

I think the "decoupling" has been happening for at least 3 years in a serious and rather fast manner. I call it decoupling because it is not just US kicking China out, it is also US pulling out of China and it is also China kicking out US and and also China pulling out of US. Two major events in the past years off the top of my head are:
We had the courts in US where the big investment firms like Blackrock fought the government that was dictating they should not invest in China.
We had the Chinese slowly dumping the massive amount of US bonds they held (from $1100 billion to $750 billion approximately) and also replacing their dollar reserves with gold.
and more ...

And now we have tariffs... It is the death of globalization and it means the start of a lot of these "decouplings".

I think we should be expecting more dumps than pumps, despite other countries going to Trump for negotiations concerning the tarrif, the Chinese government are not moved by Trumps actions and pumps of tarrif but are retaliating and paying back Trump in his own coin, I don't think there's going to be a winner in this war cause both parties are going to take hits since none are ready to end the trade war. The decouplings have started already with the Chinese government ordering banks to reduce the purchase of U.S dollar and reduction of Hollywood imports, I won't be suprised if Trump wakes up one morning and pump China's tarrif to over 200% and the Chinese government doing same, that's going to affect both economys including the stock and crypto market so bad.

you forgot to add the big picture plan
china decoupling from US due to BRICS plan.. and china wanting to have europe as better trade partners via the 'Belt&Road Initiative" ((BRI)new silk road)

america wants china to buy $269 extra american goods ontop of existing $143b to balance the deficit and bring both sides to $439 equal trade.. but china would be happier to drop sells from $439 to $143 to balance the deficit and bring both sides to $143 equal trade. where china make up their loss from the slavic/euro regions via new silkroad(BRI)

Did he now? I feel like with what is going on with his tariff war, barely anyone knew about this. Would you mind sharing source? Maybe this is his way of trying to control the market.
Presidents are always the most influential and most powerful people in the country and depending on the state of the country, he might as well be the most powerful on earth. He has the lives of millions of people, americans and non americans alike, on his hands.

It seems that the Trump team itself is completely unaware of Trump's plans and is often unable to explain decisions, especially during the tariff war. A short while ago, I witnessed a conversation between a member of the US Congress and the Trump administration's Treasury Secretary. The Treasury Secretary is supposed to be aware of the risks of the tariff war and came to the congressional hearing to explain the strategies, which he is supposed to be the person best able to explain. What happened? During the hearing, Trump issued a decision to freeze tariff increases for 90 days, which surprised the Treasury Secretary himself, who found himself embarrassed because he was not really aware of the decisions. It became clear on camera how decisions are made in the White House and that the entire Trump team is nothing but puppets that Trump manipulates as and when he pleases. Literally, it's like child's play.

Belt and Road is a massive thing and the ancient Silk Road that was connecting the entire world. Europe is only a tiny part of that plan. However, for the time being both sides (East/West) are trying to milk Europe aka the original colonizers. For example we've seen how China is swallowing European industries that are going bankrupt every day and the result of it is the same thing US regime started with its proxy war: deindustrialization of Europe.

That's how they're trying to do it and we can see how power is being forced to control many of the lines that exist and ultimately the little guy is going to suffer the consequences of that power process. The stock market has been down like it did last year and that could be a disaster for some people who continue to push themselves to make excessive profits without any good knowledge.

No one really knows how the market is going to recover so quickly or so slowly because some of the little guys are just looking at things based on what's happening. The problem is that it's not always accurate because there are times when the market moves that don't match the knowledge that we have.

Lol, good one. China isn't some friendly nice nation neither, we should always keep that in mind. Yes Trump is a moron, and yes USA has always been a bully, but China is just the eastern version of USA, do not forget that if you dislike USA and what Trump is doing, you have every right to do that, but these Chinese marketing people are doing a good job to make people forget they are a bully too.

Trump is making bad people look good, and that is not good for our future, we can't make this change without realizing how they are both dangers to other nations. The nations that are not in this war, are getting hit by it, all because two giants want to have a fight. Hopefully, next four years will pass quickly, because we are doing worse by the minute.

I meant people with power to move the markets, people who can bet $1m like it's nothing.

Maybe you remember that scene from the movie about Madoff where he'd call people that he knew had money and tell them he needed like 20 or 30m and they'd say OK, fine, and send it to him? That's the people I'm talking about. The rest will scream manipulation and fall for it, not because they are dumb, but because they can't do anything about it. They're desperately trying to make money and will take the risk and fall victim to people like Trump and Musk.

I wish it would have consequences for those involved but they know they can get away with it. Biden was able to pardon himself and his son, why wouldn't Trump do the same?  



That was a 10% move on the s&p which was the largest since the covid crash. Someone who knew what was about to happen could short stocks with leverage and make 100% in a day, then reverse it and go long and make another 50%+ on April 9. Betting $10m would get you another 15 in a week. Even if you were a really cautious trader with no leverage you'd make 1.5m making a safe x1 short a month ago.
If you traded Nasdaq that would easily be 20% without any leverage.

If anybody doubts that they would ignore the opportunity, I'd like to remind them that we're talking about liars and scammers who do this every single day. Musk hired someone to play a computer game in his name and claimed that it was him playing, even when people had proof that it was a hired guy from China. He lied on stream saying that they're stupid to think he'd hire someone and later attempted to prove he could play, but kept dying to the easiest bosses.

US economy was soaring with the stock market when Biden was president, but yet maga-hats wanted to call it Trump Pump. That was even when he wasn't their president. Why wouldn't they just be consistent and give him credit for this hole he dug as a Trump Dump? Or was Trump Pump just maga-hats being all dramatic as well?

Remember that you can then give him credit again for something positive, like if he manages to almost dig himself out from it, or end the war he started?

theres a difference between a lengthy bull period. vs a short lived pump
theres a difference between a lengthy bear period. vs a short lived dump

"pump and dumps" are not any real signs of economic growth or shrinkage.. its just a silly short lived meaningless event of emotional market movement due to some sentiment/trigger.. and that was the november-april pump and dump of trump

.
bitcoins real market economics has not played out bitcoins real ATH for 2025 yet. thats due later this year.. and when it does people wont care or see this last 6 month wiggle as anything of significance compared to the real bull market movement to the true 2025 ATH yet to come

I think since his return there have not been peace and alot of citizens are having some regrets for ever voting him for this second tenure cause he ain't delivering in regards to his promises and it's posing so much threat to world peace and the citizens. And exactly it's taking us to dump whatsoever steps we have taken towards this look at the high raise of tariffs that had amounted to a significant increase in the markets and thus disrupting the process how do we get pass that. I think it's high time we dump the Dump like you said.

I completely agree. China isn't doing what US is doing today but in the future there is a high chance that it changes and they become US 2.0 because that's the nature of capitalism. The more they grow, the more addicted they'll become to always-growing. At some point, like US, the only way left for them to grow would be to prevent others from growing.

That would be the time when the so called "bullying" would start and Chinese bombs of democracy could be dropped on various countries!!!
In fact this is why I like the World Order we are entering into. A multi-polar world like it has been for thousands of years with multiple "power blocs" instead of one or two global bullies.

china is already more dominant than america when it comes to markets
its already the biggest world producer controlling market supply(but slowly losing that position)
and thus controls many aspects like the pricing deviation

in regards to bitcoin
its already had its china dump when it banned mining.. something even US wanted to do years ago but didnt push

the first hump of (jan-may)2021 could have been considered the china pump and dump
with the true bitcoin economics ATH happening in november 2021

You are diverting the conversation.

There's a difference on predicting where the lengthy bear run starts and admitting it already happening way later on the road, just because you chose to call it "only a dip" for months.

But i will play along, sure, if you take timing and price action for granted you might have double top, and we would also consider the fact that last ath cycle was days shorter then previous one. So if we are looking for an easy pattern, this cycle should be shorter than that. I honestly don't believe that this market cycle would be that predictable, but that we are probably just going down as from head to another shoulder. I don't mind if we are not and if it's going to be double top though.

https://talkimg.com/images/2025/04/13/x3q1C.png

Ironically trigger could be trump's tariff pause ending and him self inflicting some Black Swan event on top of it.

I don’t think that was the real dump. I think it was just a preview of what’s about to come and I am not blaming it on Trump. He might have made some mistakes to speed up the process but that (pre)crash was going to happen regardless. (And like I said, the real crash hasn’t happened yet)

Everybody can see that the US debt has been skyrocketing for decades and we all know that’s unsustainable. What we don’t know is when will it pop.

You think nobody saw the dotcom or housing bubble coming in 2002 and 2008? Thousands of people did but only a few could trade it.

We are again in one of those moments. We all can sense that something bad is going to happen but we (most of us at least) don’t know how to take advantage of it.

we already had the first hump which people call the trump pump and dump.. but bitcoins real economic ATH happens ~1.5years after halving(so should be mid october)
so nah trigger wont be trumps pause expiry so not 90 days, more like 180days

and, umm.. lets stop trying to associate all events to be trump related
if you think bitcoin wont have a real economic ATH because you cant predict a trump association for later in the year or can only foresee one happening but only sooner due to trump pause expiry, ill have to ask you to stop kissing trump ass.

The politics of one country shouldn't alter BTC long term, it alters markets and upsets them greatly and BTC is part of a wider market with dollars of course but overall this price drop is mostly an opportunity to anyone who wants it.   If you were leveraged long and had to sell, you got fingers burnt dont do that with BTC, but the asset itself is fine at a lower price.


Its end of week, always take the time to look at weekly bars especially as we confirm the closing price.  Volume always matters most but closing price is how many prices work, line chart only has that data and even on candles its an important component to consider.
  I see these weekly bars as a positive outlook (long term), reaction so far in this area remains (potentially) good looking; the concrete is still wet.  If we negate the whole of 2024 price action in BTC then call me out, I was wrong but right now I do very much doubt that.

  My downside target is the tips or ceiling seen previously for much of 2024, we can get that now its fair to expect this outcome in 2025 going forward.   Even if main markets become more calm they can slip some along the way, healing takes time.   BTC has a negative trend, a ski slope and it hasnt broken that trend just yet but I remain optimistic that BTC is stronger then the muppet show politics we experience every day :P

I think that will only happen when China completely replaces the US's position and role in the world but I doubt that will happen. The US and EU may weaken in the coming years with the rise of BRICS but that does not mean they will collapse or lose power completely.

If China and BRICS succeed in reducing dependence and weakening US influence. That means the world will become multipolar and power will be evenly distributed, not concentrated in any country or bloc as it is today. This also means that the United States will be less arrogant and China will not be able to become brutal and bully other countries because they still have other options besides China. Both the United States and China will become more docile because that is the way to keep allies in a multipolar world.

I think deeply on your statement discovered that facts about what is happening is anchored to it, many have no given thought over it as the ATH was not there own prediction they still hope more greater than what they have witnessed is coming that is the main reason many are clamoring and seen the situation as trump effect or policy ,I will not completely say that his policies may not affect or have effects but let us at first put on prediction that is within the space not over exergerating when predicting ATH.

It's not like bitcoin ever reacted to rest of the markets? Markets that are manipulated by Trump insider trading. You do realize that bitcoin has been following stocks more accurately with it's maturity?

Or are you saying that bitcoin price cycle is actually controlling the rest of the markets, and next BTC bear run means depression again for the stocks?
Because that's only thing i can derive from that. It's batshit crazy theory, but maybe not crazier then to think that bitcoin price works separately from rest of the markets and somehow avoids black swan events.

Timing of that price action cycle might as well been just self a self-fulfilling prophecy. And while trump shouldn't have any control the bitcoin price as it makes bitcoin seem weak, truth is that bitcoin price is very sensitive to rumors of regulations, and therefore to Trump. Only if bitcoin is removed from need of fiat money pairing and works outside of regulations, it can show true value of it. Which might not be lot, depending what state rest of the world is by then.

But hey, if the USD collapses and spirals far down enough, BTC might moon in USD and everyone is a winner.

Honestly, I wish what you said was true, bitcoin is unrelated and unaffected by tariff wars, economies, geopolitics...because that's how bitcoin can become digital gold, a safe haven. But ironically, the opposite is happening, bitcoin is considered a speculative asset and is closely correlated with the US stock market. It is influenced and dumped by geopolitical news, macro news about the economy...No matter how much you or others try to deny it, it is happening.

It would not be surprising if Trump changes his mind and continues the tariff war, bitcoin will continue to be dumped but those who believe bitcoin is an independent will say that the correction is not over yet  ;D ;D ;D.

+1 on this.
Unfortunately there is correlation between Bitcoin and US stock market, in terms of their price, even though the same doesn't seem to be true for gold.
Bitcoin is priced as an asset and not as a currency, that's why it happens. I am not implying that gold is a currency nowadays, but it's obvious that the fact it used to be a currency, still has some importance in terms of their correlation with the rest of the US markets.

what im saying is

a. many events that are actually proper bitcoin economic moves have been stupidly associated with some media sentiment of some political concern because some people never learned bitcoin economics so went stupidly searching for causes and then just seen some news event and assumed it must have been due to the news event

b. there are a few TEMPORARY market drama that sort themselves just as fast as they are caused. that are due to media events, but that does not mean all market events are due to media events driving peoples sentiments for all bitcoin market movements

c. if you are trying desperately to find a trump event to be the trigger for the proper bitcoin economic ATH, then you are trying to hard to make things all about trump
accept that the bitcoin economic ATH ha not happened yet, its still due in 6 months and there is no point looking for a trigger. just accept its on its way and stop trying to make it about trump

you seem to be someone that wants to look for trumps black swans.. how about learn about bitcoin economics instead

You have a skewed view on this IMO. To begin with, the supposed correlation only exists in the short term, if you zoom out you will see that there is no such correlation. And if we go to the most recent the price of bitcoin has remained fairly stable when the stock markets have plummeted. If you think about it, as volatile as bitcoin is, it would have fallen much more if they had been correlated.


Both bitcoin and gold are financial assets and as is normal different financial assets behave differently even if at times the price behaves at par.

Correlation is calculated using specific data at specific times and is a mathematical equation. It's not about graphs and empirical observations.

In fact, Bitcoin and the S&P500 (US market) are astonishingly highly correlated.

I 've collected the prices on April 1st of each year from 2015 until 2025 (10 years of historical data).

The results give a 0.959484 correlation.

https://talkimg.com/images/2025/04/14/xfmHH.png

Stock market correlation seems to be a relatively new phenomenon and not be valid at all for pre-2019 dates. In particular for the 2014 and 2018 Bitcoin bear markets there is no equivalent on the US stock market, so the only reason that they seem "correlated" is that both were in a long term uptrend since 2009.

The mid- to longterm correlation is indeed astonishingly high since 2019/2020, if we take let's say 3-month intervals or more.

For shorter timeframes, there seem to be phases with high correlation and others with low correlation. The first high correlation phase started in 2020 after the COVID dip and lasted till 2021, then in 2022 there was another correlation phase and another one since late 2024. Those periods with low correlation seem to be related to Bitcoin market events like the FTX crash, although 2023 is quite an anomaly as the correlation seems to be highly erratic in this year:

https://talkimg.com/images/2025/04/15/x1Fqf.png
Source: https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/us-equities-correlation

(Edit: image changed to reflect last recorded value, it's not an average.)

Correlation is the blue curve at the bottom.

My guess is that since 2020 investors have become more "professional" and are looking into macroeconomic data to predict Bitcoin's price chart, and thus there can be independent variables like the Fed interest rate or economic growth in major economies which affects both Bitcoin and stocks in a similar manner. I don't remember any time before 2020 when Bitcoiners were talking about Fed interest rates or the CPI for example. Okay, they were low in the 2010s but the obsession for signals from the traditional financial market is recent.

The Trump Dump is also an example for that phenomenon, although it is also true that the intensity Bitcoin reacted with this time was lower than on other occations when it generally exaggerates market moves.

Markets are too complex to be measured and analyzed using math and equations. If it were otherwise, anybody could become ultra rich writing some simple equations and an automated script that trades and generates them a massive income.

I honestly don't see actual correlation here, specially when we have these.
2x rise from 2015 to 2016 <=> a small drop in S&P500
a big crash from 2018 to 2019 <=> a small rise in S&P500
a big rise from 2019 to 2020 <=> a small drop in S&P500

The only correlation bitcoin has is with the global economy so when for example the 2020 pandemic damages the global economy with recession, the effects are seen in bitcoin market as well with a crash. Other markets are obviously also affected by the global economy and they also crash. But that doesn't mean just because Bitcoin and S&P500 are crashing both, there is a correlation between the two!
And that's a variable that cannot be included in the equations...

Very interesting because this graph is proving that S&P500 and Bitcoin are almost negatively correlated (-0.7), which means that when one goes up the other goes down and vice-versa.


This is exactly the reason why some people claim that financials is not supposed to be a scientific field. I am not in favour not against this claim because I am completely irrelevant with the field. I do have a financial background but nothing to do with financials.


Hmm, I think d5000 has given a much more fulproof answer than me, because it's calculated using the full dataset, whereas I used yearly prices.

Just out of curiousity I plan to make a daily-based calculation correlation calculation, to see how different it is.

But overall, you seem to be right that my estimation is notional (theoretical and perhaps wrong).

Trump's goals are clear, starting with the most simple and obvious, this is the manipulation of the market for the purpose of enrichment, I think this is in his favor and his entourage, and ending with the fact that he wants to achieve a decrease in the interest rate from the Fed in order to start printing a lot of money. Remember what happened during his last term, he printed just a huge amount of money, it is obvious that he considers such a decision to be correct and I do not even doubt that he will do it again, but he just needs the right conditions for this. He crashed the markets with tariffs, this is true, but I also think that he knew that his actions would lead to this, so yes, it was all planned from the very beginning.

Nice calculations that prove nothing. I mean the bitcoin price multiplied by 400 in that period while the S&P only like by 2.55 and they are supposed to be highly correlated?

The supposed correlations are human patterns, they do not exist, they are regularities that we project to better understand the phenomena.

I have to remind you of the classical example of people drowning in pools correlated to Nicolas Cage appearing in films. (https://www.fulcrum.org/concern/file_sets/1c18dh74z?locale=en)


It's just like that.

Ah, no, that is just casuality that my mouse pointer was at a point with negative correlation  :D

There were definitely such phases, but since 2020 the correlation most of the time was positive. The last value was actually 0.8462. I have changed the image of the post above to reflect that.


Yes, but post-2020 there is a substantial correlation. See the graph above.

Bitcoin generally exaggerates the S&P movements, but since 2020, it more often (not always) moves in the same direction.

I think the current situation is quite novel because there was no such exaggeration, when Bitcoin "only" lost approximately as much as the S&P 500, at least its swings are currently in the same order of magnitude.

I hate to say this but I still think that Trump’s tariffs is still one of these factors that made btc price went crashing, although the bitcoin market itself is already highly volatile in nature.

However, I also believe that Trump has also been a luck factor for bitcoin most especially when his victory was announced, but only to realized late that the policies of Trump will also bring price decline for bitcoin, which could lead to the bear season of bitcoin if the price will stay dumping in the long run.

Those situation you mentioned is temporary occurrence and I think people just go panic about the situation happen especially that they see the stock market is crashing. But actually the tariff implementation doesn't do anything with Bitcoin that's why we see the market recover and stays at $80k+ again.

Also what happened there is short term hype since many people believe that Trump could bring good changes on Bitcoin especially after he won. Yes we see Bitcoin reached at $100k but it doesn't mean everything is fine since it seems Trump is the biggest manipulator and better for people in Bitcoin also crypto to stop buying their crap so that we will not get manipulated. Also if people will settle out and ignore Trumps crazy action like this current one the tariff thing for sure they can't manipulate people anymore and Bitcoin might continue to recover.

I 'd be very surprised to see my calculations showing a 0.95 correlation on a yearly basis, whereas your observations show a -0.7 correlation :P
At least, finally we get a similar picture of the correlation between the S&P and Bitcoin.


The stock market is full of bull runs and bear runs. If you stick to it long-term, you will most likely be winning. As far as Bitcoin is concerned, it' something new, despite the fact that it exists for 15 years now. Bitcoin is definitely volatile and is definitely driven by the general economic situation, so if you think Bitcoin is here to stay (like I do), you can expect it to behave like the stock market on the long run. I am not saying it will be identical, nor it will be similar. I am just saying that it's supposed to have bear runs and bull runs, but on the long-term it's projected to go up.

#no_financial_advice.

I think it's a dip, not a dump. And even calling it a dip is an exaggeration to me. What it really is is just a correction, which was expected. Weekly candle is still giving me the thumbs up, so I will not panic just yet.

But Trump is manipulating the markets for his own or his rich friends sake, I think. I would not put something like that past him.

If you are referring only to the bitcoin price maybe you are right but in the OP I also talked about the stock market, since this is the Economics section in general. If we include the stock market it is clear that it has been a dump, while the bitcoin price has remained relatively stable. Further proof to me that the alleged correlation doesn't exist.


That's called cherry-picking in my book.

In May 2021 there was a fall in the price of bitcoin that lasted until July and had only one cause: the mining ban in China. Meanwhile, the price of the S&P 500 kept rising.

Picking a single event is even more cherry picking, and if you had read what I wrote above in other posts, I don't question that there are price movements which are caused by reasons internal to the Bitcoin ecosystem, which of course often lead to divergence with the stock markets.

Let's look more closely to the post-2020 movements and correlations:

https://talkimg.com/images/2025/04/16/xhBzN.png

In the periods marked by green circles, there is almost always a positive correlation (the zero-correlation line was "reforced" by me as it wasn't visible) between S&P 500 and Bitcoin. The red circles mark periods of significant negative correlations. The May 2021 event you mentioned is here also quite well visible. And in the rest of the periods I don't see a clear tendency.

We can see that there are long stretches of positive correlations which last several months with only very small "dips" into zero or negative correlation territory. 2023 is the only year since 2020 without a clear positive correlation.

For me, the long "correlated" stretches are very unlikely to be a coincidence. But I don't think there is a direct causality, as explained above. It's more related to independent variables like Fed interest rates, general market sentiment etc..

Right now it is too early to say if the excessive money will be printed or not. In one hour from now, Fed Chair Powell will speak about the economy. Although there would be no announcements but his tone can be hawkish or dovish and it will determine the overall sentiments of the market in the near future. If he can hint about the interest rate cuts or maybe Quantitative easing (highly unlikely though), it can be very bullish for the markets.

Fed’s Powell Speaks at Economic Club of Chicago (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-04-16/fed-s-powell-speaks-at-economic-club-of-chicago)

Tarrif was juts an enabler, the real dump started from the very day he made some unbothered statements about Bitcoin in the Digital assets submit, that was the day many investors and bull lose some respect for him because he clearly don't care, Micheal Saylor was there and from his reactions you could tell he was disappointed because that wasn't what he expected Trump to dish out about Bitcoin, since then the market isn't as bullish as before.


The tarrif is a global war and Bitcoin isn't the only thing affected here. It's every financial market across different countries because of the personal interests and Trump was only trying to show others what they are made up of else why did he take China personal and let others slide for 90 days for negotiations. He has never like China from his first day but they are equally prepared for him as well, only one country don't suffer when there is a war, it's the two countries that suffer the consequences of their actions, US is not immune to anything.

I see what Trump is trying to do is simply to crash all economies he sees performing better than the US and bring it to the same level with the US or even a lower level, then he can enact policies to ensure they don't outperform the US, thereby restoring a dreamy unparalleled supremacy of the US. But he is forgetting one thing, which is that other strong economies do not depend totally on trades with the US to boost their economies, same reason China, Japan and South Korea are strengthening trades between them by vowing to fast-track reaching agreements on their trilateral FTA(Free Trade Agreements) that would strengthen trades between them and unite them against the US.

While the markets are connected to bitcoin in most cases, there are special bitcoin situations where it goes up or down without caring about what the market is doing. Like in 2021 we had covid and all markets were down but bitcoin was up, or like in 2018 where nothing special in the world happened but altcoins peaked (and btc did on December 2017).

So we can see that there are many times when bitcoin price goes up, but there are also many cases where bitcoin price moves with the market as well, there is no guaranteed situation in either case, we just have to realize that it doesn't have to be connected 100% of the time. It is connected at some times and it is not connected at other times and we learn to live with knowing when those going to diverge from each other.

Correlation just means they move in tandem in the same direction, not necessarily at the same rate. The base multiplier for BTC is much lower because the BTC marketcap is much lower and so it requires less money to move than the SP500. If you sum all the 500 businesses in the SP500 you get around $44 trillion, so that is of course a giant much slower to move. The point here is that it moves in the same direction, is just that BTC moves at faster speed, it is higher beta to SP500 of just more volatility, like a leveraged ETF if you want to make the comparative. And so far charts prove that BTC is not acting as gold. However it may start acting as gold at any time, these things are not planned ahead, they just happen due market consensus, and maybe we could see the SP500 crash while the BTC performs well and those that sell miss this move.

If I remember correctly, we were supposed to have halving in 2020, month of May 20th and then Corona came early In January- February, so that tanks the prices together with stocks. However, Bitcoin was recovering with the rest of stocks but when halving came, Bitcoin has to free itself from the rest of the traditional stock and did his thing with a bull run that ran to 2021 before the Luna craze ended everything for the whole crypto market, bad experience I wouldn't forget with altcoins.

Now, the situation of the market is totally different from what we are having. Bitcoin can be a stand alone asset regardless of what economy is saying if this was in the past but as of today, there is hefty numbers of institutional investors that are having more than half liquidity of the Bitcoin market and if there is any bad news around the traditional market and they decide to take away their money from there, they will take away from Bitcoin too and it's going to be affected.

In 2017-2018, the stock market also grew thanks to the Fed's loose monetary policy and a fairly positive macroeconomic situation. Meanwhile, the growth of bitcoin and crypto is due to the crypto craze and not dependent on the economy. So, it would not be wrong to say that there was no strong correlation between these two markets at that time.

Likewise, not just bitcoin but the entire stock market was dumped when the pandemic hit. But after the government decided to pump money to save the economy, stocks also recovered and grew, not just bitcoin. The only difference between them is that bitcoin and crypto always have faster and bigger growth rates. So it can be said that during the covid pandemic, both markets were quite closely correlated as both fell when the pandemic hit and both rose when the government pumped money into the economy.

In my opinion, this correlation will become clearer and tighter as governments decide to intervene more deeply in the crypto market with regulations and legal frameworks. 

Quite a few Trump supporters have realized that they made a mistake. They are making public apologies. But what good will that do? Will it solve anything? No, it won't. People should unite and show that this old man's policies are no longer trustworthy. Even some senators can't watch this circus anymore and are taking real action. It is highly likely that Trump will be charged with serious offenses in the near future. That's when there is hope for the speculative markets to recover.

Of course it is cherry picking because my thesis is that what we call correlations are nothing that exist in reality, they are human projections. For you, from 2020 onwards, there will be observed regularities of which my cherry picking would be an exception (I have chosen the most colorful “de-correlation”) and for me there are no such correlations, they are independent events that in some cases coincide temporally.


Yes I had read it and in the same way I could say that I have not denied that in the short term there are similarities, as for example a Fed announcement can push both the S&P 500 and bitcoin price in one direction or the other.


This is a clear case of two people looking at the same thing and seeing completely different things.


Okay, my thesis was that what we call correlation only exists in the short term and that if we zoom out there is no such correlation. Then you say you do see it since 2020, which is taking a partial sample and we could say cherry picking as well. Within that 5 year sample there are according to you a majority of positive correlations and a few other “negative” correlations which in my words would be a sign that there is no correlation.

I think this is a conceptual thing. You start from the assumption that there is a correlation and your way of analyzing data will confirm your initial concept, in that sense we can say that it is biased. And in the same way I assume that there is no such correlation and we can also say that I am biased in reverse.


Lol. It just wondered after all the discussion if we are simply saying the same thing in different ways.

;D

Yes, that's true. After Trump raised trade tariffs, I saw support for him slowly fading, and made his supporters realize their mistakes and challenge Trump for his policies, but everything has gone and in the future there will definitely be difficulties that will be faced, because to make a decision, you need to think twice because it concerns the lives of many people, and Trump will not be trusted because he took bold steps in making decisions.

I don't really think people withdraw their support, there was never the support in the first place. Here is the thing, many people don't like Trump but they will rather put their last vote on Trump than wasted it to a woman to become their president because the government already becomes a joke, Biden was sick and like a dead person that is trying his best to leave the office and face his life but many people weren't please with Kamala been the face.

Now that they have made their own choice of bringing back the man they have always hated, the new personal beef isn't longer what they expected after the cook up campaign lies, they are no longer entertaining him anymore and he also doesn't seem to care at this points because he is there already. He is seeing China as a trouble and they don't have what to use to push them that's why he's acting all this but I love the way they are fighting back US.

The interest rates in went from 0,5% to 2,5% during that 2016 to 2019 period. They started lowering before the pandemic, but it was the pandemic that crashed interest rates to 0% as well as the market. This is the classic "cutting into panic" movement as seen in dotcom in 2001, great financial crisis in 2008. Now the question is, how does this lowering of the rates occur in the current time? there will be again another panic cutting event? Or is this a soft landing? we cannot know these things. If they cut rates into panic, the market will crash, but it will pump again as QE+ZIRP is the best antidote for Bitcoin.

If there is no crash, then sidelined money will end up buying and the price will run but will not go up as fast as it would have gone if there was a crash. Im bullish long term in both cases.

Nah, Trump had a lot of support. The last administration failed in so many ways, so people wanted something different, and that was why it was easy for Trump to have so many supporters. Also, Trump knows how to portray people as the cause of all the problems in the country. He did it in his first term, and it worked, and it worked again this time around.

I agree, if Kamala were a man, a white man, especially one who has achieved what Kamala has achieved in her career and had a campaign like Kamala's, then they would have won the election. But that does not mean Trump didn't have supporters.

Possibly :)

The "Monday volatility" is, in my opinion, an example for the weird correlation between Bitcoin and US stock markets. We're just now experiencing another miniature Trump Dump, although this time Bitcoin's reaction is even less pronounced than the stock markets', but it is there.

There would be almost no reason for increased volatility on Mondays if it wasn't for markets opening which were closed during the weekend, but I have observed it several times that a tendency change occurred after the US markets opened. (I've however not found stats for that. If someone knows 1-day volatility charts for BTC it would be helpful to confirm this idea, I only know the 30/60 day volatility charts from Bitbo ...)

My best bet is that it is a self fulfilling prophecy: Traders have noticed that often Bitcoin followed the stock price in the past 4 years, and thus they tend to sell if the US markets open with falling stocks, and to buy if the stock markets' tendency is bullish. And thus they're reinforcing this correlation - and as it "seems to work", they continue to do it, even without Bitcoin-relevant independent variables being present.

But this only works if there are no "internal" Bitcoin events which "decouple" the Bitcoin price from other markets' influence due to their own dynamics, of course (China mining ban, ETF approval, Terra/Luna, FTX, Segwit/Lightning, MtGox in 2013/14, and so on).

Trump downfall like this is very dangerous and has caused a lot of damage to people because when the price of Bitcoin was up to $100k this coin is going up a lot, which had gone up to $88 but at that time its price has been very low and has come down to $8. When Bitcoin was slowly going down its price had gone up to $27 but after that it did not go up and today when we see Trump price it has gone down a lot. At that time there were a lot of hopes on Trump and America had a lot of hopes on Trump but now it has fallen so much that people are worried about it.If they had worked hard on this too it could have gone up quite a bit but many people have done it but we haven't seen anything like it.

To Bitcoin it should not be a danger because its not a centralized system, I would hope BTC is not reliant in that way but speculative dollar flows is something that will adjust against any speculative asset and BTC in its highest prices will include alot of traders so we've seen that weakness.   Otherwise I expect BTC to be fine on a regular basis and its base price it should not be reacting negatively to what is negative news within a FIAT currency system because its not built to depend on that.
  Market isnt seeing current news as positive nor should it really but comparatively BTC is better off when less challenged by a strong Dollar, its not direct but over time there is some purpose to BTC that shows through in times of political failure which is basically every year but especially noticeable in moments of political interference like now.

One thing is certain that I know, this will not last forever and the time for it will also pass. Donald Trump effect cannot make the market to stay this long forever, it is either he is part of it or he’s not part of it. The market looks so dependent of this Trump and his policy since he showed interest in bitcoin. It is high time he’s being boycott and the market moves normally as if nothing happened and his effect will make little or no change to the market movement.

The bitcoin market will not change its mode of operation or consensus because of just a policy of one government, we are facing this now because of the high hopes on him and the market also relaxing on his say before any major movement can happen or take place. Many already see him as the steerer of the bull run which is not suppose to be. I know that soonest, things will get back to normal, but for now we have to play by the card we trusted and ensued most thing on.

it all depends on each person's belief to believe it, sometimes the effects caused by Trump's words will indeed have an impact and affect the cycle that occurs, although market conditions can change over time, of course that is something that must be considered because many voices say so, and the bitcoin market will continue to run and there are no obstacles even though Trump's statement about tariffs has made some crypto assets sluggish.

It's no use expressing any regrets.Trump initially started off with using and accepting crypto donations for his campaigns,we initially got the message from that kind of acceptance and gesture but the signal was totally ignored.
In other words, Trump's campaign skyrocketed because of crypto and some people literally voted for Trump because of the crypto strategy without foresighting the risks involved.

well 95k is better than 77k

here is hoping for 111k soon

Of course. We all knew tariffs were going to have a negative impact across markets. Even Donald Trump acknowledged the "short-term pain". Take the current situation as a huge buying opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and other cryptos at a discount.

Right now, the crypto market is bullish because of the "90-day tariff pause". Same goes for the stocks market. But if Trump decides to move full-speed ahead after 90-days, you can rest assured "all hell will break loose". There's nothing we can do other than wait until the dust settles. Hopefully, the global economy will recover soon... :(

I don't blame him because the market is volatile and unpredictable, and I consider this a healthy correction after many days of price increases. But on the trade war, I believe the tariff war will stop because things are going against his thinking. Initially, he thought that other countries, especially China, would make concessions to reach a bilateral deal. But ironically, things did not go as expected and he is facing strong opposition both at home and abroad. That has sent Trump and the Republican Party's approval ratings plummeting, so whether he likes it or not, the trade war has to end.

Trump will have to end this pointless war soon or the Republican Party will lose its advantage because in 2026, the US will enter the midterm elections to re-elect the House of Representatives and the Senate .

https://imgvb.com/images/2025/04/28/2cd0c520a30ac33e014eccda484ff148.png
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/27/trump-approval-rating-economy-immigration-polls.html

Yes. Political pressure against Trump and his Republican Party is increasing each day. Unless tariffs are rolled back, don't expect this to change anytime soon. Perhaps, Democrats will be able to secure a majority in the House during the midterms (2026). We'll see. Besides the trade war, I think Trump has done good in Making America Great Again. Of course, no one is perfect. Consider the "tariffs situation" as a minor mistake that will be long lost and forgotten in the future.

The next step towards global economic prosperity, would be to end the wars between Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas. If Trump achieves that (Peacemaker), then he'll be able to save America and the world for good. Be aware though, that an Indian-Pakistani war is on the rise. The US and its allies must act immediately to prevent this from happening anytime soon. Else, the global economy will continue to deteriorate until there's no point of recovery. The future is uncertain, so I'd hope for the best.

The crash was already brewing before Trump. Trump didn't suddenly make changes to policies that effect an otherwise healthy economy and monetary system. He has openly come out and said that a crash is inevitable and he will not prolong that inevitable event. A crash is a necessary thing to happen in order for a healthy rebuild. People have all of the information out there to validate all of what I've just said and to prepare for it, and if they don't, that is on them for not making use of the internet that's available to the entire nation there.

You are providing zero data to back that up. Not to mention that's against what every respected economists have said.

Saying we have all the info to validate something isn't worth anything, when you had the burden of proof in the first place. And only thing you provided as a context was vague remark from a notorious liar.

As a counter note, kicking all the oversight and watchdogs away is a sure way to build next huge artificial country sized pump and dump.

You think FTX was bad? Think of it being a country with a lunatic in charge without any oversight.

So you mean to tell me that before Trump came into power, that the US was on track to become a healthy and strong nation, and would have avoided any form of financial crisis?

Clearly, you are unaware of what causes financial crisis and that it barely has anything to do with the person in power, and is actually to do with economic events and circumstances that stretch far and beyond presidency.

Also, what were the respected economists saying before every other financial crisis? I can sure tell you that they weren't saying a financial crisis was coming.

You want the data? Instead of being a wise guy, ask for it. I have no burden of proof on a forum where I am sharing my opinion, and have no interest in going out of my way to share and cite valuable knowledge that I (and anyone else who is actually studying the economic conditions, data and state of the world) already know based on how you responded, and then on top of that, ironically proceeded to contest what was said with political opinion and also with zero data. The thing is, that I already know (and have done the research to know) that what I am posting is accurate. If you believe it's inaccurate, you are welcome to post the proof to show that it's incorrect (good luck, if what you posted is already your attempt at that).

Trump has already said that crashing the economy was what was necessary. He's said that openly. Anyone who is informed understands why that was said. Only someone who is uninformed (or even a fool) could say that an economic crash only became a possibility just because Trump took the presidential seat.

If you actually want to learn what is behind the next economic crash, go and look at:
- The global and US M2 money supply growth, and look into what happens when the M2 money supply is forced to contract after irresponsible expansion
- How that's effected the world each time that it's been forced to contract.
- China, how much they've expanded their money supply in comparison to other countries, and how they are now being forced to enter deflationary territory.
- Study how that will effect liquidity and markets in the wider world (as well as if the US is forced to do the same thing).
- Look at when the expansion started again (hint, ECB 2014), when other countries joined in, how much it expanded during 2020

It doesn't matter who took that seat, economic circumstances and conditions were growing weaker and weaker prior to him taking power the first time and were not made any better while he was not in power. In fact, ever since the gold standard was abolished by Nixon in the 70's, crashes have been the norm since then. I don't need to share links and cite anything to validate what I just said, you can google and find the research for yourself.

After you've done the research and study that you clearly haven't already, feel free to re-evaluate your position that just because Trump got into power, is why an economic crash will happen. You can't pin an economic catastrophe on a single person, whilst economic irresponsibility has been conducted by hundreds (if not thousands or more) of greedy banks and corrupt people at the top. Have you forgotten why Bitcoin was created to begin with?

It seems that what was the Dump is not so much anymore. The stock markets are recovering quite a bit, probably because Trump has had to back off from his initial idea. Some say it is part of a premeditated plan, as he described things like that in the Art of the Deal, but it is clear to me that at least in part he has had to sheathe measures he was planning to do.

I am not sure how and when the Trump plan will work out. It seems that the Fed and Powell are his biggest enemy of him. Maybe he has a bigger challenge to have the Interest rates cut than to have the tariff negotiations with China. In less than a month, he has emphasised enough on rate cut, but Powell seems least interested. He never hinted that he is interested in the Interest rates going down anytime soon. The below is the newest tweet from Trump again hoping for the cuts.  ???

https://i.ibb.co/gb7vyfyv/Trump.jpg

Where are all those gone, who have been blaming Trump and his tariffs for cryptocurrencies prices to go down? What will you say, if I tell you that current top crypto prices are not higher than they were before Trump tariffs announcement? How you going to reply if some of you have missed crypto discounts? Again Trump is guilty because he hasnt warned about price recovery?

Isn't gasoline $3.165 (https://gasprices.aaa.com/) and egg prices at least ~2x higher compared to last year ($3.29 vs. $1.2) same month?  What am I missing here?!

Well, Powell can't cut rates now. Especially with tariffs in play. Would you imagine a weaker currency (USD)? That would raise the cost of imports more than what they are right now. The FED should be raising rates to make the USD stronger and imports cheaper. But I'm no economic expert, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

Either way, Trump's dreams might soon become a reality as Powell's term comes to an end. There could be a new FED chairman that's a "Trump loyalist", putting the central banks' independence at risk. Americans are headed into economic uncertainty. So they should prepare themselves for the worst.