Bitcoin Forum

I finished the first post at my new Elliott Wave analysis blog for cryptocurrencies. The first post covers the daily chart for Bitcoin.

If you are interested in Bitcoin Elliott Wave counts, then please check out my post. Let me know what you think.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-april-2nd-2014/

Follow @CryptoWaves (https://twitter.com/CryptoWaves) on Twitter. I will tweet when I make a new post.


Visit CryptoWaves (http://www.cryptowaves.com) for new posts!

Kind of neat was reading it not from an Elliott Wave View but I can see the argument
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/19/bitcoin-may-be-following-this-classic-bubble-stages-chart/

But shouldn't wave C be at least as big as wave A? That would mean we could see prices going down to $100!

Wave 4 cannot correct lower than 100% of Wave 3, i.e. $63. While it's true that Wave 4 shouldn't overlap Wave 1, that rule is only valid for non-leveraged cash markets. I'm not sure if that applies to Bitcoin though...  ???

Wave 4 cannot overlap with Wave 1 unless there is a leading diagonal or ending diagonal pattern, which are rare occurrences. This rule cannot be broken. If there is a Wave 4 into Wave 1 violation with a drop below $260 then my count needs to be adjusted.

Wave C being equal to wave A is a guideline, rather than a strict rule.

Ok makes sense. In that case we should probably be looking at the 78.6% retracement of Wave 3 first which coincides with the $300 mark on Bitstamp.

New post made providing details on the Bitcoin Hourly chart. Happy trading, everyone!  8)

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-april-2014/

You should consider using a log scale to see the waves and your labeling a bit better. 

Also, have you taken price action before the beginning of your chart into account?

The price data that I have on TradeView goes back to August 18th, 2011. I took everything going back to there into account (measured the waves and fib ratios all the way back there as well). Is this when BitStamp opened? If you know of any chart data that precedes this date, let me know.

At Bitcoin's current price level, the hourly chart is the most important. I have that mapped pretty well. Providing a log scale chart would be useful at some point. I'll work on that after studying the log chart section in my EWave book.

Yes bitstamp data goes back to near that time.  Mt gox data goes back further, showing a couple of earlier bubbles and the 2011 crash.  Im not sure how you could combine the data but this chart may help for reference:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2920ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2920ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl)

How do you figure that $260 was wave-1?
http://www.cryptowaves.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Daily_03.30.2014.png

Maybe (more likely, imo) $260 was the 3 of the $1163's III

It was my initial read on the chart. The large drop after the $260 top looks like a Wave 2 due to the deep retracement, though it does seem short in time to be a P2 wave. We both agree that the $1163 top is a large degree wave 3 top. I may make adjustments based on the Gox data from 2010, though I don't feel that it changes the current count on the double zig zag W-X-Y retracement.

The main reason I was pointing that out was because a retrace below $260 doesn't really invalidate the larger count (although, it will be perceived as very bearish by many, since the previous ATH...blablabla) And as long as this is not the super cycle [II], your shorter term count is as plausible as one of mine where it's an ABC and we are in iv of 5 of C right now.

Analysis holding up nicely. Let's see how low we go.

CW, on your hourly count the (5) target is shown as 382.86. But we just hit 382.70 on stamp! You're going to have to do better  :D

Please criticize: (https://www.tradingview.com/e/1QcTgU9a)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/seqJNtUN/

I don't have time for a chart update right now, but I'll throw a quick update here.

Wave (4)-C-[Y] ended at $465. This puts new targets for the end of (5)-C-[Y] between $360 and $295. Price already hit $339.79, so that could be the end of wave (5). Full confirmation that price is in an uptrend (based on this wave count) will not happen until we rise above $465, the wave (4) high.

Caution is advised to the long side until price rises above $465, but downside risk is limited to around $300 at the same time. Could stay in the $465 - $300 range for the short term.


Thanks, hope everyone has found the initial posts useful.  :D


Queeq, would love to consider other E-Wave counts. It is always good to be aware of other wave count possibilities in case the primary wave count fails. There's too many labels on that one chart to read it clearly and I don't have the time at the moment, though. Hopefully will get to it this weekend.

Very nice chart Queeq - the last wave was a beautiful buy opportunity.

I'm sure I missed something. I guess the last big A-B-C count is incorrect considering B felt far beyond previous wave 5. Looks like it's motive wave.

I think that what is important is that we were offered a terminating five wave at lows subject to rapid reversal, and a clear mind to take the opportunity.

Funny how the reversal is attributed to news, when it was common knowledge that china never wanted to 'ban' bitcoin. It is just that news moves the market only when speculators are vulnerable (shorts/longs to squeeze). Until that point of panic, speculators had been moaning about how the good news never moves the market, but the bad news always crashes the market..... well that's because speculators were by majority long, and more importantly, subject to panic.

I like your chart. I dont think you need to be critical of the forecast, because I don't think that is what EW really does. we are just looking for junctures.

Actually, to an extent, that is exactly what EW does. EW shows what is possible to happen next (granted you can have many differing alternatives, though). If there are 5 clear, non-overlapping waves down, then up is the next likely direction in either a five wave 1 or A, OR a 3 wave ABC. The fibo relationship to the previous move can give clues as to which one it is.

As movements happen, you get a few different counts. Then you start checking for invalidation and readjusting your counts until the picture becomes clearer. Counts are rarely perfect on the first try!

yeah, you said it. We can use it for forecasting, but it is ambiguous. Our count is also ambiguous. A lot of people would laugh at that, but the other day I was offered the chance to buy at 355 using EW. I dont think any other TA would have served me so well.

I propose a slightly modified count. I have a different count for waves 3 & 4 which would push the ceiling up to ~$510 for confirmation that we are in an uptrend. At this point I am still inclined towards another X wave that will take us to $500 before bringing us back down to the low $300s and possibly even the $250-300 range sometime in May.

http://oi61.tinypic.com/255hm3a.jpg

Feedback is welcome.

Looks reasonable. And now we have triangle as wave B. Looks like we are going to have wave C upwards that will end I guess around 500. This would confirm correction and down we go.

Here is my latest count.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZYjLx380/

Yep, the B wave should take us near 400 before the C wave up. This should play out during the next 2-3 days.

Btw, your charts are quite hard to read. Sometimes making them simpler is better, no need to go into all the tiny details. But cool charts anyway :)

http://s12.postimg.org/3uf8zssxp/fivewav.png

my software sucks for labeling, but Im sure y'all can see that this lil wave here actually meets the criteria of a 5/primary wave UP.

third wave not the smallest, fourth wave wedge, and no overlapping. fractals are fairly clear.

being the end of a larger cycle, This correction (reversal!) should last quite a long time. I doubt that it is merely a correction because (unless it forms a wedge) it will break upwards out of the larger cycle wedge in the time that it needs to consolidate. today, it would need to break 510 to get out of the wedge. In a weeks time, it would only have to break 480 to escape from the wedge.

what are the fundamental arguments that this is only a correction? I would have expected a reversal upwards by the 14th as a critical fundamental date.

Thanks, I'll make them simpler. This was just a working copy that I urged to show :)



Use tradingview.com, there are lots of free functions. It's enough for almost everything.

We are not sure this is the end of large cycle, aren't we? :)

It still fits theory about it being wave a (subdividing into 5 waves) and sideways being wave b which is also typical for it. Waves 2 are usually more steep. Moreover, it's kind of triangle there which appears almost always in waves 4 or B.

For it to become new uptrend I believe it must reliably break 600.

Queeq,

The price has almost retraced 100% of the latest wave down, and will likely do so in the next C or III wave upwards. This would confirm that the last wave down was a fifth wave, terminating a larger cycle downwards. not necessarily a 6 mothly reversal, but this reaction off lows should give us a few weeks. I am arguing that in a few weeks time, this reaction will have little choice but to break the wedge running down from ATH, and that would be very bullish. This is reversal territory, after all.

On a smaller scale, we have a clear a-b-c off recent highs, 440 - 400. It seems to have hit a bottom within the reaction of the last bull run. this is really bullish. If the coming C wave up that we expect is more aggressive than the A wave, then it could easily be a third wave.

If we break 510, we have broken the wedge. I think that a target of 600 to establish an up trend is overkill.

http://s8.postimg.org/hh01cb6vp/tradv.png

This is a powerful day trading long signal considering that B was a wedge (anticipates a terminal move) and the price has turned around after being rejected in the territory of a larger wedge.

What is a possible alternative count that does NOT go on to break 440?

Please don't take this the wrong way, as I'm not trying to be a dick :P
A triangle is a triangle and a wedge is a wedge. They are not interchangeable (though a wedge is a type of triangle) In EW, a wedge is ONLY found in a 1, 5, A or C. A wedge is an impulsive wave that shows weakness in the move, hence it is called either a leading or ending diagonal.
A triangle is a corrective wave which I am assuming you are referring to. :)

To answer your question...
This is a possible count that shows the top is in.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1397449399553.png

It is by no means the only count available, so don't take this as advice.

RyNinDaCleM,

 :) Im here to listen.

.... I really thought that wedges and triangles were the same thing.... just different terms used to describe contracting volatility and liquidity in a range. maybe I have been fooled by non - EW analysts.

your analysis was certainly an alternative but not any more  ;D I dont go into that sort of detail, I find it doesn't help until I wish to execute. The problem I have with that analysis is that you couldnt justify it on an hourly scale.

At time of writing, this looks like a third wave coming, or an aggressive C wave. but it's a long way yet. we will see. what are your thoughts?

If this is a C wave, it is very aggressive, and by rule of thumb maybe we should expect a 1:1 A:C ratio. this rally could take us to $500, threatening the wedge.

Yes, a 1:1 ratio is what we expect at this moment so we should be targeting the $500-510 level for the end of the wave. You can look at the previous ABC rise from 400 to 700 for pattern similarity.

Also, a real possibility that this is the reversal we have been waiting for. if it breaks through 510, I think a wave iii interpretation is in line.

Let's wait and see :)

Well, it may be a start of new trend. Need to remake my analysis though. I'll post them later.

Yes, typically you would not just assume that overlapping waves are nested 1/2's (3rd wave extension) as I had labeled... That is why I validated it with my disclosure. :P

http://s8.postimg.org/hh01cb6vp/tradv.png

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XMmlec4r/

so seems like we might see a five wave rally top off here. if it bounces off the wedge line, then an overall wave C interpretation is likely, and the rally would be postponed.

If we pass through the wedge, then I am still looking for a wave iii interpretation.

love the post, where to next captain?

some have said less flattering things about EW analysis, mine being no exception  :D

where to next? up or down  :D we are having a battle at 500. if we take out 500, this breaks the back of the bears for many reasons. I would assume a iii wave interpretation, and expect a rally to 600 in the coming days.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xlfvfAqF/

This may be overly forward looking, but this is roughly what I am expecting in the coming days/weeks.

600 may put up a fight.

Correction may enter 400s again, but I think that 500 may become support.

Could be, or we may have just topped at 509.

Let's see how this will plat out!

Are you thinking of a C wave analysis?

All right. This looks reasonable:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DfvAfjsU/

So if we are at the start of the new uptrend, I guess we are struggling at the end of subwave 1 of major wave. So now it looks like we going to have correction to somewhere around 450.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iZqOIeNV/

What confuses me is volume which is higher than usual. Upon reversal volume drops AFAIK.

So from your analysis sticking a limit order in around $450 looks like a solid plan right? I stupidly missed the sub $400 price waiting for funds to clear.

Thanks for critics.
Yep, they are. But I fail to find another way to draw 5 waves here. Especially when they fit fibos.
We may assume that this is zigzag. Wave b then ends around 0.764 of previous wave 4 and wave c end around 1.618 previous wave 4. Also fits well.
To confirm this we should drop below 440. But it still could be wave 2 of major wave 1 retracing.

So, I don't know what is it.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PkHaz1JW/

well we know that the wedge was a wave iv to some degree. price likes to turn around in wedge territory. I will set a buy target there. Hopefully this is not a wave C.... but that could be a valid reading.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MAcXcehp/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/a5SvipyM/

.... if this wedge play on to the upside, then I would assume my earlier interpretation is correct.

Here is another option for your previous count. Has both bearish and bullish scenarios.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1397607716292.png

I read that chart wrong the first time, deleted comment.

Really good chart, thanks. I hope to see all degrees of a primary wave kick off this new trend.

What about this?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9YTPBX3t/

Not very detailed BUT I LIKE IT  ;D fifth wave blow out FTW!

I have slightly lower expectations.

EDIT. btw, I dont think wave iii is over just yet. Looking for 540 at least.

agreed

But as I see Bitcoin loves extended 5th waves, because of emotional traders.
So... What if this?  :D

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pgQDhbSA/

I made a new post. Head over to the site to check it out. I'll try to update more often if the chart needs adjustment. I was traveling and working over the previous weekend and I travel again soon, unfortunately.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/


It's great to see E-Wave counts and discussions presented by others. I try not to apply other people's counts to my charting, though.

Edit: Nice count there, chessnut  ;)

Just to point something out for those of you using tradingview. It is missing 2 days of data. The 12th and the 13th.

For comparison, here is a 1hr chart. The boxed area is not included on tradingview at the time of writing.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1397645616825.png

 :o OMG. Thanks!

yah I noticed something was wrong.....

so I think we just saw wave iv of III of the primary wave, hitting a bottom in that little wedge. super good support. we should top off wave III at maybe 550-560.

Look at how we are passing EMAs step by step  :)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XskfMZKX/

interesting the EMAs....

I dont really care if this is v/III or iii/III. Im going to look for consolidation for about a day or two, then wave V will take to to 580, 620, who knows. but probably less than 800  :D
critical levels are 483 and 450. if it passes 450, that fucks things up a bit.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MO95OVe1/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nL8ioEdx/

yes, it's compatible with my EMAs.

Light-green line (15-day EMA) usually provides strong support when we are above it.
Also 10-day EMA (red line), 300-day EMA (at $464, I don't know how to call this color in English  :D) and $474 level based on previous crashes and Gann's Square of 9 - they are all together give us the strongest support. If we break them - the downtrend will continue.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6mmd3yVv/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cz3cfl5M/

any thoughts on this?

In my last post.

I see.... deep correction possible aye.

well I think that this is the end of wave three, but not yet the primary. I just dont see a wave iv yet.
In this case, the biggest test of support we can face now is 439 - wave i overlap, and 387 (H&S + end of price history before extremes)

This 5-wave sequence may be wave 1. In this case correction (wave 2) is possible to reach previous low of 340 or slightly higher.
Let's watch how the corrective zigzag wave unfolds.

P.S. What's for this being end of wave 3 - according to the rules, it always subdivides into an impulse, never a diagonal. So it's more likely we have completed major wave 1.

but the waves do not overlap, so it is ambiguous. it may be a wave iii and impulse and have diagonal features.

Wave 4 does not overlap wave 1. I am talking about wave 2 (which is A-B-C zigzag on my chart). It could not move below wave 1 start, but it may retrace it almost completely.
Also seems like we got triangle forming.


https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qds0azeK/

Indeed, 5 waves are complete. It is also unknown if it's a 3 or C, but a completed larger degree wave-1 it is not.

I still like this pair of counts. The green line is the Elliott Wave Oscillator... look it up and recheck my chart.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1397659719369.png

Don't you think there are too many extensions for wave 3? I incline to the count where it's divided between waves 3 and 5, especially because fifth forms ending diagonal.

Also, if it drops below 470 it still plays as wave II unless it crosses end of wave I. This is where we have to start worrying.

Looked up Elliott Wave Oscillator. So it's simply difference between 5 and 35. I don't trust it much. It also shows 3 waves up and 5 waves down in the beginning of this particular example during the clear uptrend...

That first down is the divergence signaling the 5th of I. So there are actually 3down. Same with the extended III. Divergence at the top
The way to use it is like this:
4th wave returns to zero. Scale is on the left
3/5 divergence as a MACD is used to find divergences.

Both are are present

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1397672088969.png

As always, time frame changes depending on the degree you are counting

I'm more and more convinced that there will be the 5th wave, because we are still sitting at ~510, right on the latest broken resistance (which is now support) and StochRSI on 4h and 1h are going to become oversold already.

Thanks for pointing out the missing data Rynindaclem. What charting service is that you are using?

Since price held $475, I am still looking for wave iii to complete in the $560 area.  The negative divergence on the 15 minute chart noted in my post last night foretold the short term drop nicely.

BitcoinWisdom it seems

Guys, what do you think about long term EW counts?

This?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cQRsZNQs/

Or this?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CkINw3fy/


I prefer the first variant, because:
1. The wave from July/August 2013 seems to be corrective (I can't recognize full 1-2-3-4-5 structure);
2. That July/August wave wasn't confirmed by other cryptocurrenices (Litecoin was still in a downtrend at the same time), so this is the reason to think that it was rather a wave D of the triangle then a motive wave 1.
3. In this variant growth of the wave III = growth of the wave I. Wave I: from $0.06 to $31.6 = 527x. Wave III: from $2 to $1160 = 580x. It would mean that we are about to start the extended wave V, which growth would be (580+527)*1.618 = 1791x. $340*1791 = target  $600,000.


If that, its route would look like this:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QVF1GyY7/

http://s28.postimg.org/p7szyd7ul/2014_04_17_00_21_57.png

Only one thing i need to know is where we are going next 615 or 470.)

I use Sierrachart level 3 data, but there is a $10/month bitcoin only data service

For long term I have a less optimistic view.

Wave (5) would be equal to (1) in price percentage terms so we should expect a 3.6x increase from the current low.

Assuming 339 was the bottom, we'd be looking at a truncated 5th which would be followed by a long corrective trend that could take us all the way down to ~$135 or even $70.

http://oi61.tinypic.com/30dlda9.jpg

The first one is my primary long-term count

There is another variant, more bearish:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FwG9nSxv/

In this case it would mean that we have finished the whole cycle and entered long term correction to 70-135.
But we still haven't broken the long term trend channel, so I will consider this variant only if/when we break the trend.
Right now we touched the trendline at 339 and bounced from it.

And my counts regarding the finished correction.

I can see that it's completely finished, wave A = wave C = -67%. Also wave C has 1-2-3-4-5 structure, where wave 2 = the wave 4 by time (6 days both), and wave 5 = wave 1 + wave 3 by time: 16 days + 23 days = 39 days.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fw97gBDH/

Correction, My primary count is more like the one posted below;


I don't see how this is less optimistic. It shows that there is yet another 3 then the 5 to play out yet. ;)


Bitcoin tends to count like commodities. Whereas 5ths are VERY extended. Sometimes as much as 2.61x wave 1+3. Very rarely (and usually only on intraday impulses) does the 5==1 in length. I just disregard that guide line for Bitcoin. :P

The 5 of C can  also be counted this way:
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1397686323537.png

This is just to show that nothing is for certain until invalidation occurs.

Sorry for the long post, I just got home from work, so I was unable to do a lot from my phone.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/F43pEjSx/

possible short scalp for the day, or long entry target. buying all I can at 480 - 500.

I'm buying only after breaking the 200 days EMA (540 now).

https://www.tradingview.com/x/a5Op8n5k/

here is a better chart.

I believe we have just seen the 480 extreme tested and support is strong. I bought at 488.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/H9i6ISmp/

right! here is a shot.

All right, drop came a little late of what I predicted and not so deep.

Still, we can drop further if price breaks 460 down. But a scenario where we are at the end of bigger wave 2 plays great. It would become even more likely if we go above 500. I guess we'll have some obstacles around 520-550 and if we exit that area the following rise must be strong.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PnxPZC2O/

Nice work. I just got back in at 488, but I'd feel lucky if I have in fact just nailed the bottom. wht concerns me is that the next obstacle after 480 is quite low down, but then again, 480 is pretty tough support. This is a very good risk/rewad set up.

I know, a wedge can't be a corrective wave by EW rules, but traditional TA says there are wedges as continuation patterns.
What do you guys think about this?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/h6Q87urq/

http://www.ashiinvestments.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/rising-and-falling-wedge.jpg

I'm not an expert, but even to me the decline since the last ATH is looking like a declining wedge. I noticed it quite some time ago. There seems to be some good prospects no matter what kind af analysis technique you are trying to apply, so let's hope EW and TA aggregate and lead us to the next bubble.

RyNinDaCleM, how can a wedge act as a wave A according to EW? I thought it could be only a wave 5 or C.

StochRSI on hourly chart is already overbought, so I think we can't go up right now. Maybe we'll have another leg down, something like this:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/N0eVONyq/

fr33d0miz3r, I might have agreed, but do you know the rule about IV(iv/iii) A fourth wave following a third wave will tend to turn around within the proximity of the fourth wave of one lower fractal.

Look at my chart above. it's almost exact.

I wish I could help you about your other question, but I dont know all the details.

It would be what is known as a leading diagonal. It can be an A or a 1. It has a structure similar to an impulse (5-3-5-3-5) except it usually has overlapping 1 and 4 waves.

I deleted my post because it's not technically a wedge by EW standards since the 1 makes a lower low than the 3

Also, it's not a 5-3-5-3-5 structure.
But the daily candle of the end of the wave 1 closed exactly on the lower trend line.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vqLUXiaq/

What does everybody think about this?

.... seems a bit bearish atm, but then again, fifth waves are weak. break under 455 would invalidate the whole thing.

I guess we are going to test the $464 level (to test the support of broken 300-day EMA, also the 10-day EMA is there) before breaking the $540 level (200-day EMA). Once we break $540, we won't can dive under it.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OVYAxiHA/

If you think 450-470 is iv/III then I think that's a pretty good reading.

yep. So, if it works out, we gonna have a weekend pump, which is pretty good for closing the weekly candle  ;)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BUgxSbd2/


Also, every EW count should be compatible with important EMAs' support/resistance levels. It works very well for me.

Nice chart. But now something to consider, bottom of wave iv is then very close to top of wave one. we should not expect pin point accuracy, so maybe in this case, we should prepare for a breach of 440. That would be very bearish. I would be wary of this only if 480 is broken.

But we should now have a great support at $464 (300 EMA), and going to $450 is not mandatory.

But if we break the $464 support, bear is our friend again.

yes we should, but our analysis will be tested within $20 range. if it hits 440 we should be prepared for that, it is not far away.

How about this possible trendline? We are sitting on it right now  ;D Pump in 3... 2... 1...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/116vEjrr/

 ;) I like the way you are thinking  ;D
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CWmPcYxm/
Pimped up my chart lol

How about this: pump to $667 and then a correction to $540 which would be a 200 EMA support test and a 0.382 fib level.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NAL3TFCs/

Sorry, we also have a 100-day EMA at 567. So, the projection below would be more correct, I guess.
Also, the end of 4th wave would be at 0.618 fib level in this case  ;)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/st6qpumZ/


AND: Pump to $700 and then a correction to 567 or 540 would draw us a big inverted H&S pattern on the daily, which would cause a massive panic buy  ;D

Something like this:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ia9IiwK1/

which wall?

Oh bitcoin you so crazy  ;D

http://cs421127.vk.me/v421127512/314a/GbZC7ruPH6o.jpg

That's what invalidates it! All waves must touch the line without breaking it. The only wave that can break the line is 5. That's called a throw-over. The same rules apply with triangles. The E wave can fall short or it can break the line as long as it doesn't go beyond the C.

If our bullish counts become invalidated, then we could see a wedge which acts as a wave C:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/46JUEgEk/

So, there could be a $266 retest.

After a quiet and stagnant day, the bidding begins as expected  ;D I dont think we will need to worry about a 266 retest. I don't think that can happen.

But don't trade until we break the 200-day EMA. There is another huge bearish possibility:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/g5aKkZmv/

thats not my style  :D i buy low with leading indicators. I would never buy into a fifth wave using a lagging indicator.

The same bullish count for LTC is already invalidated.
Prepare for dump.

I noticed that  :-\ let go of my long and shorting to 465

Hourly bitstamp MACD just made a bullcross. Needs confirmation with another histogram bar above zero. Going to see if this produces a bounce.

Based on the fib ratios of the move up, I am still looking for a wave v move up to complete wave (1). The uptrend channel on the 15 minute chart was broken so I extended it with another. If it falls out of this new channel then I will revise the count.

Someone mentioned not buying for fifth waves earlier - I agree with this. It is better to try to catch a third wave move in either direction instead of playing a fifth wave.

Edit: Also note the positive divergence on the 15 min MACD with respect to (wrt for short) Bitcoin price.
Edit2: Had some incorrect calculations on my first 15 min chart. Updated.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/L4xrVkEv/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/aXr3dzQd/

fr33d0miz3r this was a good analysis. Im not worries about LTC so much, Im still bullish.

Cryptowaves, Im a scalper, I just took 490-480 and Im thinking of going long again. nice chart!

Another long-term possibility:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZVOTj1qY/

well fr33d0miz3r, it's a possibility, but Im not going to consider that analysis without a fundamental reason. Bitcoin is not an idle currency, and I believe that if it stalls it may collapse for good under speculative weight. the fundamentals say this is developing at an exponential pace, and I have to be bullish in the next 6 months. 266 retest is possible, but very unlikely if bitcoin is in fact on a path to succeed.

..... seems like we might see wave V unfold soon. though it will take days...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/aXr3dzQd/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/v25aKYrI/
wave V break out. good luck folks  ;) blow out fifth wave plz  ;D

Right now we have 50/50 chances for $266 retest and for going up right now. It depends on which EMA we will break soon...

I think sideways action for 1-1.5 years (final motive wave + long flat correction) would be healthy for bitcoin before the great runup to $1M.
Because right now there are too many "early adopters" holding tons of cheap bitcoins who are too greedy and tempted to cash out at prices between $400-$1200, and there are "smart money" people who know this and want to buy as many coins as possible below $1000.

I have corrected my count a bit. I think this is more possible:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bs4TKqMJ/

It means we can have the top at $1600-$1800 this summer and then the bottom of the upcoming correction will depend on our current bottom ($340 or $260 if we go lower now).

I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.

I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.

Elliott waves are much more than just a price movement.
I'm pretty sure that fundamentals follow waves, and not waves follow fundamentals. It means you can predict real life events using EW.

Example: before New Year I analyzed RTS index (Russian Trade System - main economics indicator). I saw the picture: a big crash in 2008-2009 (economic crisis), and then a little growth and stabilization. I assumed that the crash could be a wave A, following growth is a wave B and according to Fib time there must be another crash in spring of 2014 (wave C).

Russian economy looked pretty stable in late 2013, so I assumed that there would be some bad events which could cause another wave of crisis in Russia. What happened then? Russian/Ukrainian conflict which was followed by US/EU economic sanctions (import of lots of products became limited), and then RTS index and Russian ruble fell to 2009 lows.

How did I know about possible Russian/Ukrainian conflict and American/European sanctions? I just knew that something *bad* could happen, nothing more.  

Finally an impulse up. Hourly candle looks very similar to the one from $409 to $475 on the first wave of iii up.

I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour.

I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction.

the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment.

.... many of us here believe this is wave V. can you please illustrate iii wave interpretation?

I would say waves == fundamentals.
What is Fib time? It's a timer in your brain. Timer for responce/reaction to events. Every fundamental event is a someone's reaction to someone's action. So, our own life is a big cycle which has waves that act according to Fib time (a timer in our or someone else's brain).

So we can predict lots of fundamental events using this method. Because every event is a human's reaction to something.

yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave?

I would want to know both.

By the way, I want to explain you how wave fundamentals work. For example, you have a business. Your company becomes successful.
What is a fifth wave of your company's success? Durig this wave you are delusional, you are shouting "WOW!! Such success!! We are the greatest! No one can beat us!! Wow!"

At this time your competitors (for example) are watching you and getting evil or annoyed or planning something bad for you. At one moment (when Fib timer triggers) they decide to start real actions against you. Something *bad* for your company is happening and stock of your company burns down.

Does Bitcoin have "competitors"/enemies who are just still "watching" now? Of course: banks, governments, hackers etc.
Does Bitcoin have "holders" who are shouting "Wow! Bitcoin is successful! F*ck you bankers!" - of course.
I think it's time to trigger "the Fib timer" soon.

Thanks to Bitcoin Foundation that does great lobby to "soften the blow" in the future.

yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is.

Agreed, but you should rather know both the fundamentals and the waves. And you should know all possibilities for the future waves. That would allow you to define possibilities for future fundamental events.

yep yep I agree with that. lets watch the this blow out fifth  ;D

Nice weekend pump ;)
Btw, the wave 2 lasted 35 hours and the wave 4 lasted 70 hours (35*2). So it seems our impulse counts are correct. But I expect a runup to 700 (not 540-560) during this wave. If we fail to break 200-day and 100-day EMA, we are not reversed.

We are in agreement on the count - refer to my previous chart.

This is what I meant with the other comment.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/4kaGCRUj/

sorry I misread your post. glad we all agree! this is a powerful reading.

Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?

Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days.
Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day.

But now I'm not sure we will continue going up.

yea even the pattern before those 2 boxes looks similar if you take out magnitude of the swings

why not?

I rely on EMAs for confirmations :)

Hmm, the weekend pump continues. That gives us some hope for an uptrend.

Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.

200-day EMA is a barrier which is hard to break. Once we break it, we won't dive below it anymore soon. So, if we break 200-day EMA, we'll have an extended 5th wave. Why not buy it if it's extended?

Or if we fail to break the 200-day EMA, we'll possibly break it by the 3rd wave of higher level. Why not buy the 3rd wave then?

we dont know that yet. sure, buy the fifth wave, but take the third wave gratefully, that is where the money lies.

also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down.

If the fifth wave 100% retraces, then we won't break the 200-day EMA by it.
And it would mean we still won't break the downtrend line.

So, there are still no confirmations of an uptrend to me. I still have EW counts that tell me a possibility of the downtrend continuation within the next 3 weeks to the possible bottom at ~325. While this count is not invalidated, I will rather sit tight and see what happens.

Every EW counts should be confirmed by traditional TA and important EMAs.

A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary.

If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes.

"buy high" is somewhere around $1000  ;D

 ;D MUAhahahaha

I'm not buying while it's valid:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vZhs5Wrn/

I guess we are trading on different time frames completely. Im a day trader and long term holder, If that situation unfolded, you can bet I'd be short the best of the way down with my 20% funds on BFX. The way I see it, is that If I can catch a third wave (as I have) a leveraged day trading position may suddenly become a long term position to hold on to.

Probably. I usually open long/short positions for weeks at least.

possible 5th wave blow out case.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pM8ze9Fl/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q9a7z616/
do we have a primary on stamp?

I'm not really seeing 5 waves down for C unless it is a truncated fifth.

I only had one order filled at $490 with more down to $475 :(

every day it looks more like a C wave... oh well. Ill hold until the we truly stall. plenty to be made short if this is a C wave. Today is the day if this is a fifth wave.

I suppose this truncated ending diagonal 5th is possible

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398129332328.png

...or the 4 is not yet complete

queeq had an idea that we may be in wave II.... I think assuming that wave ii and iv were quite out of proportion.

Or we are going to $0.0006

Huobi thinks sell walls are sexy. up we are going. why doom and gloom suddenly? fifth wave is still an option.

or not?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/E66mBKvi/

trend lines do not define elliot waves..... there is a primary wave on stamp if you didnt notice.

And EMAs? We failed to break 200-day EMA. And even more: We failed to break the 240-day EMA, which has only minor resistance.

EMAs are only small edges.... they are usually out of tune with the market waves because of abstract time scales. I use my eyes, not EMAs. I see a juncture, that is all that matters to me.
Huobi is rising as we speak.... maybe we should talk in a few hours.

EMAs are used to confirm or decline the EW counts. Wave C may often look like a wave 3, and only EMAs can say you WTF is going on.

Houbi (with its fake volume) is just testing the other people's reaction. If Huobi is rising, but other exchanges don't follow it anymore - then it's time for dump.

EMAs are not an integral part of EW analysis. that is your style. I watch the fundamentals.

Huobi is rising after a massive troll wall. I think I know what that means. wave V is still a real possibility. we have evidence for a lot of support in this area. Im not turning bear until we break 475.

Huobi and troll walls are also not parts of EW analysis  :P

I never said they were  :P

EMA sell walls troll walls Huobi rising H&S support resistance etc is all TA. none of them point to 266  :P

really?  ;D

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2SFPDnjE/

Thats EW analysis and a bearish count  >:( I dont like.

TA is risk management. does not forecast like EW.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q9a7z616/ primary on stamp.  

Bears and early adopters don't care about your preferences  :D
They are just cashing out while you are bullish.

Classic TA is not only a risk management. It's used as an addition to EW analysis for confirming/declining analyst's counts.
There is a possibility for $260 in the next 3 weeks and EMAs confirm it. I will become bullish only after breaking $530.

BTW I can see an obvious double top pattern, still is not confirmed though.

hey cool it, I know about sentiment just as well as you. I dont like your count because you couldn't justify the fundamentals, and that means a lot more than a EMA.

you say in addition to EW, maybe, but not on its own, it is not a forecasting tool. I have a bullish count, and I have fundamentals. I've been rightly a bear in the bear market and I think it has come to an end.

Which fundamentals? MtGox liquidation? OKCoin deposit halting? Which?

China is in the past, the market is forward looking. exchanges are opening in America and Europe and the UK one after the other, and they have exposure to hundreds of billions of dollars. soon all issues will become irrelevant.

MtGox liquidation? that situation is far from clear. coins will not be liquidated on the market, they will likely be returned to customers. why should that make an impact when 3600 coins are mined every day? we dont even know when the legal proceedings will be finished, this may only be an issue in the distant future.

So why are you still looking at Huobi if China is in the past?


So, we won't go up while the situation is unclear. That's simple.
I'm not saying about 200k coins dump. I'm saying about Bitcoin reputation in common people's heads.

chinese issues are in the past..... do you think it's bearish that the chinese are buying like crazy?

Chinese are buying (on fake volume) and others don't care and selling at the same time (on real volume). Yes, it's bullish, lol  ;D

Do you really think that Bitcoin's exponential growth will be infinite?

right so volume is fake when you like, and troll walls are real when you like. I wasn't referring to the volume anyway, just so happens that the price is rising. is that bullish or bearish?

Of coarse it wont be infinite. but the market cap is so small, it can easily grow 10x still.

nope.

yeah it can... easily. do you realise how much money there is in the world?

I dont' really see the point of using technical analysis when we know this is just manipultion

I just know how many early adopters with tons of free bitcoins there are in the world. And their Fib timer is triggering NOW.

this is an EW thread, not a TA thread. none the less, TA is the economical and geometrical necessity of buying low selling high. it does not lose significance during periods of manipulation.

just like in all the last bubbles? yeah, a fib is about to trigger all right.... just wait till the stock market fib triggers and hundreds of trillions of USD needs a new home. where will it go? USD, gold, and a very small fraction (say half a trillion) bitcoin.

Yes, of course, I waiting for it. But it will happen not NOW.
First we will deflate the bitcoin bubble, and then the stock and fiat bubble will burst and the new money will go to bitcoin. Be patient. Everything takes time.

so you think it can expand 10x? ok.

anyhow, no point arguing about it now. the counts will be proven within a $30 move either way. Ill come back in a few hours.

It can expand to $1M, but I'm not expecting new ATHs in the next few years.
I have revised my bullish long-term counts.

OK, so if it is ending diagonal, appearing in wave C...

Subdivides into five waves - yes;
Appears as wave 5 or C - yes;
All waves subdivide into zigzags - no;
Wave 2 does not go beyond the start of wave 1 - yes;
Wave 3 overlaps wave 1 - yes;
Wave 4 does not go beyond the start of wave 2 - yes;
Wave 4 ends within the price territory of wave 1 - yes;
We have contracting variety of diagonal, so:
Wave 3 shorter than wave 1 - yes;
Wave 4 shorter than wave 2 - yes in absolute value, no in percentage;
Wave 5 to be shorter than wave 3 - to be seen.

If it is leading diagonal, then:
Wave 5 to end beyond end of wave 3 - to be seen.
Instead of all waves being zigzags for ending diagonal, for leading only 2 and 4 must be zigzags.
So it's most likely a leading if we can interpret last rise (11-16th of April) as a zigzag.

Oops.

Shorter or equal. If equal (or almost equal), then target = ~$260

Edited previous post.

Yes, now I mean leading, not ending diagonal. It's only the beginning of a downtrend.

What was that period in December then? I thought downtrend should be counted from the peak.

Short-term correction before the last truncated ("failed") mini-wave up.

New post up.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-wave-count-update-april-22nd-2014/

Please be constructive with your posts. TA and EWave discussions are welcome - I feel they go hand in hand.

nice chart - I tend to agree, although surprising that the wave iv and V are taking such a long time to unfold. Bearish moves still have zero conviction and I have doubts that any dump could push through 470-480 floors.

Inverse head and shoulders is comforting - the right hand shoulder is the weakest price action for ages. a light breeze could push it to 540.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/J9KMyWeN/

As far as I understand, the "triangle" presented by Cryptowaves is not really a triangle as it must subdivide into at least five waves where each of them is a zigzag.

Doubts and arguments are far different things...  ::)

Triangles are counted as 3-3-3-3-3  for a, b, c, d, e. Expect two more touches of the lower trendline for c and e. If there's only one touch of the lower trendline then it could still be a flat for iv.

Yes, that's what I meant. But I don't see this pattern there:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UBC1EvrZ/

But if it's really a triangle then I think it would most likely be wave B, and previous rise - wave A. It's too long to be single wave 4.

There are no strict rules on the time aspect of waves, only guidelines.

Sure, but it is very uncommon for wave 4 to be as long as waves 1-3 together. Motive waves are usually extended and could be very long. This one is corrective. That's why I think it's more likely to be wave B.

That's the definition of a wave 4,actually.


Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.

I'm not changing my view until price justifies a change.

Actually we won't see much difference if the following would be wave 5 or C. Both of them could be pretty similar if we have powerful 5th or weak C wave. It would become clear when the following major wave unfolds. Anyway, let's watch.

I'll add my 2 satoshi's...

After a $150 rise for 3 in little more than two days, it is to be expected to see a longer sideways movement. Sometimes, when the market is indecisive, you get more of a time correction rather than so much of a price correction.


This is just a little explanation of the psychology behind impulsive waves and why the fibo levels that have such predictive powers work as they do;
Wave 1 is believed to be "just a pullback" to the main trend. So people think "this is my chance to get out before the trend continues". This is what makes wave-2 sharp and deep. When the selling fails to make new lows, people start buying. When new highs are made, the trend starts to establish itself. People who don't want to be left out combined with traders watching the indicators starting to turn buy more and the wave-3 is now in full effect. This is what makes the 3rd the most powerful wave. After such a rise, the market needs a cool-off. Enter wave-4... A meandering sideways range to allow bids to catch up to the spot. You have bears who think it's the top of a C and bulls who think it's going to the moon. This is the indecision that makes a 4 very unpredictable. This same indecision builds strong S/R levels for the correction after the wave-5. Finally wave-5 breaks free and many who exited, get back in, in a stop-loss fashion. Again, no one wants to miss the train! This is especially true in Bitcoin. It is this mentality that catches people holding through the downtrend. Those that sell and panic buy back in for the 5th wave are some of the biggest culprits.

This psychology works in both directions, not just up.

RyNinDaCleM, can you please comment on the descending wedge illustrated above? Im not 100% on the rules/guidelines with that.

That is something I was watching very closely today. It did however, fail to touch the lower trend line to complete the wedge. It then preceded to break up above the upper trend line. The lack of conviction has me wary of a true break out, though. In Bitcoin terms, it might still be considered a wedge since the low liquidity of this market allows for strange moves that make no sense from an EW standpoint until much later.

Rules for an ending diagonal:
Has 5 waves and ALL are 3's
4 almost always overlaps 1
3 is still never the shortest
the trend lines converge and both either ascend or descend together

I redrew the upper line and it is still intact with one more wave down to complete. This would explain the lack of push on the break-out.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398316371156.png

Edit:
Fixed

Thanks  ;) nice chart.

I updated that last chart with a channel if it turns into a double zig-zag. Divergence in the EWO says this move is almost over if not already.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398336893612.png

Thanks RyNinDaCleM, very interesting chart. the price action is interesting at these levels. weak to both sides, but showing support. I dont see this doing anything much without a drive, hopefully we will get some news in the NY session to catalyse the situation.

Yeah, it'll be more of a spike triggering some panic (This can go both ways!). If up, expect a nice scalp. If down, it does a few things. It neutralizes the divergence and possibly invalidates this count which can cause a bearish outcome. I have bearish counts that are still in play, currently, and I don't discount the idea of a break down. The underliers are not great at the moment.

Here is another possible count. the B wave wedge calls for a terminal C wave, and the A - C wave demonstrate divergance.

Bears are getting cocky at the moment I think they might get a surprise  :D will see.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZJgX8vmt/

two possible counts I see, one bullish, one bearish (but not very bearish)

the fashion with which we break/not break 530-550 will be much revealing.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YFA9n9rY/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BkbASPji/

That bearish count is actually quite bearish in the longer mid-term but the final C will be a nice long, possibly reaching $600+.
A flat is also possible therefore only reaching ~$550 but still nearing $100 move is a nice trade at 20%

This is another bear count building off of CW's triangle with the C extending to 612 (61.8% of A)-692 (100% of A)

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398385212305.png

Triangle is invalidated

I think this news validates an impulsive wave down. C wave. 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6femiHvL/

Being it wave 4 from the 16th of April is almost invalidated.

if we can get a five wave to terminate here in the next 2 days say (seems we have just begun wave iii) we may have a pinpoint buy opportunity around 380-420. This would cause a great big H&S pattern, and call for a possible B wave interpretation, so we can have ABC off 339.

I do not see an interpretation that takes us to new lows any time soon. anybody?

Here is a USD version for those of us that can't convert it on the fly :P
Mine is slightly different, but should ultimately reach the same conclusion. The bull count is fully invalidated now, so I agree with chessnut' analysis of a 380-420 low for B.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=139842683367.png

RyNinDaCleM , wave 2 cannot cross the start of wave 1 (the last wave structure).

Also, B subdivides to either zigzag, flat or triangle.

Edit: Oops, it's big B, all right. But I guess its end must be lower.

Still, it's possible we are in the end of bigger wave 2.

I guess I should stop making cross country flights for work. I was on a plane Thursday 4/10 during the recent sharp drop and I was on a plane last night during the other sharp drop.

My count from the previous post is invalid. The current count that I am tracking has this drop as wave (2). Price bounced nicely off of the 50% retrace of wave (1) at 443. Wave (2) could be done, or it will drop further to the 62% retrace at 419. I'll make a post sometime this afternoon after taking a closer look at the charts.

What do ya'll think of this? since this news has unfolded surprisingly as an ABC wave, the buy target is closer now. looking for exhaustion above 400.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mBcGETON/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cutrJIcY/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lEqLFzOs/

to justify my short term view. we need a lot more consolidation if we have not capitulated.

C wave is diverging, suggesting further that this is not a iii wave. 400 is critical support, fibs and historically. b wave was wedge, suggesting terminal movement. Im looking for a strong short term signal long, before targeting 500 again.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0qS894Vf/

Again, I notice that you and others over at Tradingview are making your charts with the assumption that 340 was capitulation. Yes, I know, you put a red arrow pointing downward to act like you are looking both ways, but you give no long term bottom targets.

If you want to make helpful analysis, you should offer both views equally, even if you are secretly and biasedly rooting for us to go up.

You are going to have to redraw your charts if/when we go below 340. If you don't want to risk looking like fools - if you want anyone to listen to you the in future, you should hedge your analysis and give us the scenarios both ways.

No. Its just that people aren't taking your seriously. And I'm trying to tell you why. I'm trying to help you.

But you are apparently too butthurt to listen.

I made 40k in the last week doing the exact opposite of what you were telling people - unless somehow they could interpret that mysterious red arrow pointing down that you add to all your bullish EW chart patterns.

I will sell the next rebound most likely. And I will let you know. One day, it might motivate you to make a more well rounded analysis.

we have a complete count. the C wave was a weak impulsive, now we have a typical abc-abc-135 pattern. this is a tradable juncture with a lot of upside potential - I am long from 430. this bear run is very weak, and losing momentum rapidly.
Exit strategy is pending, if the impulsive becomes more aggressive, I would cut loss in the teens, but the trade is otherwise valid until 400 is broken.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VbmISsvU/

Do you guys think we just hit point 2?

I've already forgot about that chart :)
I think it's invalidated as C was too long.
Yea... And supposed B appeared much lower. Don't think that it could be extended flat.

I think we have begun a wave C, could be part of a 1-2-1-2 primary, or a correction up 600-700.


https://www.tradingview.com/x/0qS894Vf/

We don't know really if that's C or (III). They are indistinguishable at this stage.  But I think it's more likely to be C because previous wave down was more like B.

What is 1-2-1-2? I know only 5 and 3 combinations. These one-twos should subdivide.

well 1-2-1-2 is a retrospecive form of primary, that looks just like an abc until wave a of the next leg turns around into a iii wave.
we had some really bad news yesterday, and the market has turned. this is not a short squeeze, I think it has fundamental drive. considering where we are in the larger picture, I am expecting a wave iii.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/MT3qt4ix/

The two problems I see with this chart is that 1) your large C should sub-divide into 5 waves not 3(ABC).
2) is that your I off the 339 bottom is not 5 waves, imo. I suppose it can be if you really force it, but not with any kind of proper proportions.

Edit:
To help better explain the 1-2-1-2 to Queeq
It is the same as nested 1-2's Call it an extended 3rd. Ex. I, II, 1, 2, 3, 4, III, IV, V

Oh, thanks, now I understood. At first I thought it's a subdivision pattern, but that were numbers of waves.

Regarding last major C on the last graph, it could be easily subdivided into an impulse. Bigger A @400 could be treated as 3-rd, following B @700 - as 4th wave. Some of the subdivisions are extended.

Im not banking on a primary wave, but the chart is tell me that alternatively a wave C is coming to 550 - 600. the market has turned unexpectedly (not to EW) after BAD news. it has fundamental drive.

my overall C wave divides into ABC. is that incorrect? abc - abc - abc is not uncommon?

3-3-3 must be flat. But it's not flat, it's zigzag most likely. So we should count it as 5-3-5.

Unless it goes to 340 area again.

Erm... Or are you talking about waves from ATH? I meant possible zigzag from 340.

yes, talking about ATH. 100% certain that A wave is a zigzag.

In EVERY ABC the C is 5 waves. The A can be either 3 or 5 and the B is of course always 3, but the main thing is that C is 5 waves.
When you have a correction that has ABC ABC ABC then it's called a complex (sometimes called combination) correction and is labeled WXY. This is also known as double and triple zig-zags or double/triple threes, where you have two zig-zags labeled W,Y linked by a counter trend rally labeled X. In a triple zig-zag you have an additional zig-zag labeled Z and again separated by an Xx wave.
If you want more info on WXY's then just ask.


Yes, I was talking about the count from the ATH.

I believe the rise from $339 is indeed a zig-zag. It completely looks like two impulses but the correction after the second, invalidated it as a bullish motive.

Im sure that's not a rule, many ABC corrections are composed entirely of overlapping zigzags without a trace of impulsive behaviour. the standard model is corrections overlap, and impulsives do not.

Oops, yes, 3-3-5 indeed, not 3-3-3. Maybe I confused it with triangle where it is 3-3-3-3-3.

So 3-3-5 flat correction fits great. However it's not really flat, as B and C incline downward. Though, AFAIK, it's possible. If it is so we must reach $1k in five waves. 2 of them already complete. Would be invalidated if we go below 340.

Overlaps inside motive waves are in diagonals. Leading or ending. No diagonal possible in wave 3.

EVERY C is 5 waves, ALWAYS! :)
http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/elliott-wave-principle.html
About half way down there is the section called flats, zig-zags, and irregulars.

The simple corrections (flats/zig-zags) have only 2 structures. 3-3-5 and 5-3-5, though a triangle can be called a "3" in the B wave.
3-3-3 and 3-3-3-3-3 are complex corrections.
Edit
To add to that last line, those 3-3-3's are subdivided into 5-3-5's

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398720942135.png


A little closer for the count
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398721237650.png

What are your forecasts? haven't seen any lately

Here is an example showing that triangles are 3-3-3-3-3:
https://encrypted.google.com/books?id=lQ0OEmzM9tsC&lpg=PA52&pg=PA53#v=onepage&q&f=false

Absolutely! Triangles are always 3-3-3-3-3. But because they are comprised of all 3 wave structures, they can be counted as the 3 (B) in the case of 3-3-5 (flats) or 5-3-5 (zig-zags).

As far as my forecasts, I have 2 scenarios as my most likely counts, and one of those have a slight alternative.
Bullish shorter term (days-weeks). It's an ABC where the C is under way. Target between $550 (flat) and $605 (zig-zag). If 605 is broken then I would consider the nested 1-2's as a likely candidate rather than ABC. Use indicators to determine how far it will go as it unfolds.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398722566406.png

One more wave down before the C
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398722821874.png

Bearish count of Doom. :P
This count retests the $339 low and either double bottoms for the potential end of the bear market or breaks through and continues as low as $100. $100 is not likely, but as a potential wave 2, it is possible. I have no definite targets here, yet, because we'll have to see how things are going IF we go there.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398722003688.png

Where we are right now (22:20UTC) could be that 4 top before the final push down for B in my alt bull count. It also corresponds to the iv of 1 of C (or the 2 of C in the case of a leading diagonal). This small pull back was expected and I will expand my position if we see $435 before heading higher. If not, then I look at it as the iv of 1 of C option and I wait until the 2 to get in more.

I hope that is clear for everyone who frontruns it :P

Edit
This is why you don't use EW alone ;)
There are too many variables to it and it can burn you. ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS use other indicators to back up your trade.

the eyes are best indicators. I dont use any others.

did you know that the brain can be trained to see using a digital signal from a digital camera passed through the nerves of the tongue? after some training, blind people have been able to navigate walking through a room using a digital camera, just like bats can fly with sonar.

I think some people seek consistency with indicators, but I think the inconsistency within a trader is the root of all our troubles.

I agree for the most part. If you spend as much time as I have watching charts and the real time order books like GoxLive or BTCCharts, you can see when momentum changes and trade based on that. I used to do this a lot for quick trades and bottom fishing. I don't have the time anymore to do this, so I use indicators as a major part of my analysis. My counts aren't meant as absolute future telling. I count to determine what is possible next to weigh the risk for which side I look for. Then I use indicators to confirm tops/bottoms and depending on the time frame I am trading, entry/exit points. On days that I have more time to devote to charts, I'll trade every wave of an impulse and most of the correction. To me, it's boring to be a buy and holder :-/

RyNinDaCleM, can you comment on my B wave wedge intrpretation? It seems to stand out to me as the most obvious interpretation, considering that this bear run is weaker than the previous bull run - while I think your primary count is very clever.

- im talking aout this one.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cutrJIcY/

To be a triangle, it needs to have 5 distinct waves and each wave needs 3 subwaves.
If the first rise after your a=x then the final rise to make your b needs to be at least x*.618 in length to be a valid C. It is not, so I wouldn't count your triangle as it's own abc either.

there are many species of triangles no?
wedges describe the case where wave c fails to exceed the extreme of wave a. this is not a 'triangle'.

A wedge from an EW point of view is a triangle in the sense that it has converging lines and therefore is not a channel. However, wedges are found in impulsive waves (1, 5, A, C) and both trend lines are ascending, or both are descending. Triangles are corrective continuation patterns. The direction entered is the direction leaving.
Take this schematic. It shows how bearish and bullish triangles are expected to behave. The only thing it doesn't show is expanding triangles which follow the same rules, but have diverging trend lines. One thing to notice about triangles is that the top line is either flat or descending and the bottom line is either flat or ascending.
https://i.imgur.com/MsotOFO.png

An ABC where the C fails to make a new price extreme is a failed C. It also happens in running flats (where B makes a new price extreme and C falls short of the end of A).

When a triangle has less than 5 waves and breaks out/down, then there is another count for the pattern than a triangle. It wasn't a triangle! Since yours had an A,B and most of a C then I would automatically change to a 1-2 of some degree since  a higher high was not made and it holds the rules of a wave 2.

I think the wedge you are referring to is the wedge commonly used by general pattern recognition. In EW, a wedge (diagonal triangle) has rules to adhere to.

well if thats the hard EW rules, ok. I just fell like its the same either way - consolidation. contracting liquidty, contracting range. The c wave was rudely interrupted by news, so possibly it was a failed c wave, but I'll give your analysis benefit of the doubt.

I'm not saying to follow my counts. You have the ability to count, so you should count it and re count it and when you think you have it, count it again. Weigh your options, gauge risk, then count again. You can come up with many counts for the same group of waves so don't be overly biased in one direction or the other. One more piece of advice would be to always start with a significant low or high. I know you stated somewhere that you start at the ATH, well good! Do that every time and you will continue to be successful with EW.

sure, but the point of the thread is discuss, and maybe reach consensus. In an EW thread I'd give preference to your count, although I would only use it if it inspired me to. 

Absolutley! :)

I like your counts. First one the most as it has clear subwave patterns. However, there are some inconsistencies.
1: wave B subdivided into an impulse with deep 2nd wave and flat 4th. Everything else fits perfectly, especially subcount of wave c and their sub-subcounts. If we go up from now it's confirmed.
2: Wave iii of 5 is not an impulse, but rather a diagonal, and as we know they don't appear in 3rd waves. I guess this one is invalidated.
3: Wave 2, again, looks more like an impulse. I think last price action invalidated this one as well.

Also, could you please include volume in your graphs in the future?

Thanks for sharing your work.

RuNinDaClem, C = impulse. I hadn't looked for it before you assured me that it had to be an impulse, but it actually seems better than the zigzag earlier. This is cearly five waves, the last clearly terminal, and diverging.

what are your thoughts on this? or have you covered this already?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nxBEgRMD/

Yea, and if this count is correct (big flat after ATH), then we are at the beginning of new rally. So all we need to know now is if we are inside 2nd or b wave. I guess it would become clear around 600-700.

I think critical level is at 670-700. It's 1.618 of our current i/a wave and also is the end of previous 4th wave. C-wave should end there.

thanks,
and in your opinion, or anyone else, how does this shape up to the 266 low alternative?
I think 266 is a highly sentimental number, never will be touched. and more significantly, to forecast any further lows is dismissing some serious divergance.

#1 I do see what you count there and I'll just answer with this
While it can be counted as an impulse (red) I chose to count it corrective (yellow) because the price fell below the red dotted line, thereby invalidating an impulsive count there.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398769831615.png

#2 I'm not sure which iii of 5... 5 of B?
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398770255761.png
The labellings are slightly different so I could have the extra degree labels.

#3 I'm guessing you are referring to points in the first chart still?
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398770555538.png

The most serious of divergences is the volume. Any other divergence can be neutralized with a day of high volume, sharp drop off. Which is why I don't just dismiss anything as impossible.

About your chart, that is pretty much my Bitstamp count, though Bitstamp has a little more going on with it.

#1: Yeah, looked closer at BTC-e chart, it's really more like a-b-c.

#2: Major wave V from red line above to the very bottom. Its wave 3 subdivided as i-ii-iii-iv-v, I had question about this subdivision. Well, at this zoom looks reasonable. I thought it had intersections like a diagonal.

#3: This was about the third image. Wave 1 - leading diagonal down. Wave 2, yes, like an impulse that was discussed in the first image. However that is clear now.

As a conclusion, I still think #1 forecast is the most accurate.

What would you guys say if this happened?
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1398778578232.png

Wait! Before you go shooting this down, one thing to consider, that keeps this kind of count alive is that this rise (so far) seems very corrective still. To get a 3 waver making the first higher high since December would make this even more plausible. I would be inclined to move this count up a few notches on my likeliness scale if that happened.

What is this count? I don't know about it.

Yes, it's still may be corrective and could be treated as corrective up to 750.

This count is for the situation where the $339 low was the end of a large ABC making a larger A and we are in a big B now. If this were to come to fruition, the B could technically make new ATH's before revisiting $339 and possibly below.

Like very big flat? Either extended or running?

Yes!
A flat would end somewhere near the $339 low +/- a few percent.

A running flats C would fall short but still must be at least 61.8% of the Larger A and the irregular flat would end below $339 somewhere.
These are only if the B makes a new higher high. If not, then the C would likely go below the $339 low and accelerate. Especially if the B goes to 700 or higher, many would see that as a failure to make new ATH's (not necessarily a Bitcoin failure) and thus, the bear market is not over and would start jumping ship to either bottom fish, or just to cut losses/take profits. The C would probably be only a few weeks shorter than the A since December, so too long for some.

Again, this is a long time away, IF it happens. That's a big if.

seems like an abc has clearly terminated 1-2 i-ii stalling at resistance. longs would be vulnerable now. Im out.

although I cannot see a primary to the left so I am not convinced that a disaster is on the way. If a third wave does not take us rapidly through 400, I will be expecing a slow trip to test 400-415, a bounce, and perhaps re evaluate afterwards.

any ideas?


https://www.tradingview.com/x/MNoVbfA9/

If this is an ABC correction, what is the motive wave it corrects?

Also, if it is a zigzag, then A waves should subdivide into five waves.

the abc is a B wave. The A wave is an abc, Im pretty sure there is nothing wrong with that, according to the resources that I have. I thought only C waves had to be counted as fives. How would you count the A wave as a five wave? if it is not an A wave, how would you count it?

I am an EW noob and don't know how to chart, but to me it looks like rynindaclem's 1/3 chart is still valid.

I am talking about this one:

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sierrachart.com%2Fimage.php%3Fl%3D1398722566406.png&t=539&c=3RGiLMbe8k66_A

the problem is now that the current move since 425 low cannot be counted as a primary. I think It could still eventuate of coarse but I'm trying to find a better solution at the moment.

queeq, this is the problem I see. if this c wave is an impulse, how do we count iii? it is an abc. I was expecing a larger wave C now to cerca 550, but now we have a corrective abc, cannot be a primary. I'd like your ideas. stick with the original game plan?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TEOjli1E/

This is one count that keeps my first count alive.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1399028155567.png

And there is this... The red is an alt ABC for the 4 of V
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1399028843429.png

The number of diagonals leads me to believe that this is still corrective since a diagonal is a sign of weakness in the market. There seems to be too much indecision still.

Great idea, it could be a leading diagonal. are you BUllish or bearish on this RyNinDaClem?

I added an edit while you were typing

ok so you are on the sidelines then?
seems like there is no motive to the market today.

I'm still in 25% until I decide what to do  :-\
But yes, I'm waiting for some clear direction before I take a further position

RyNinDaClem, if we broke 460 again now for no apparent news realated reason, it could be a strong long signal dont you think?

chessnut, here is a guide I used about corrective waves: https://encrypted.google.com/books?id=lQ0OEmzM9tsC&lpg=PA30&pg=PA41#v=onepage&q&f=false

I am currently unable to make thorough analysis about what is going on, but I stick to the idea we deducted with RyNinDaCleM a couple of days ago. Briefly, it was pretty bullish, no matter if it is either a correction (which is not finished yet) or the beginning of new uptrend.

Building off of this count

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=139906297763.png

Thanks for the link,

I agree with RyNinDaClems idea aswell, although when the market fell last night I hadn't realised the possibility of a i-ii as a leading diagonal. nothing much has happened since, it seems to me like we are not about to go a third wave down like DanV might suggest on trading view.

BTCCNY
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DjL5AQAT/
BFX
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NFyCaAif/

seems like descending diagonal.

5 down is not a good sign when there isn't an A/B before it. I can count it two ways, and neither have to be exactly forced, so it's a little ambiguous what lies ahead.

The bear
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1399165284498.png

Da Bullsssss
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1399165317668.png

Yeah, possibly an ABC count too, so im not preparing for a iii wave necssarily. Huobi has chiseled a good looking inverse H&S, so the bullish count (iii up) to come is still a possibility. not much is certain at the moment.

For the Bitstamp chart I think that the abc interpretation is definitely the most likely. either way it seems we need to test 450 at least if there is going to be another leg down.

Yep, that's my target for the bear chart 2 of V of C

looks like an over extended b wave, the spring has been coiled, and some fishy business happening on huobi. looks like a rally is set to reach 450 soon.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RwrN5WRr/

did we ever look into this as a possibility?

while the iv wave is disproportionate, how could one force the alternative C wave count to be a fiver?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/D7AZZ07i/

With an extended 5th.
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1399204393977.png

Imo, it seems less forced than that 4th. We were talking about this when that top came in and the divergences were present as either a 3 or C. Then we made lows to overlap the 1 and invalidate the bull count.

Yet another bear option.
Target around $415

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1399247067609.png

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wwQfYd03/

It is still a riddle to me. I think further upside is almost inevitable if this does not develop into a triangle.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/IZy8t4qN/

this is a possibility. any ideas? seems like the bullish reversal count is in favour at the moment.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XqhE4OCv/

.... and on BTC china... look at this. the lower fractals make perfect sense too.

In the first chart (post 301) why do you automatically assume extended 3rd? There is no overlap.
The CNY chart seems plausible, but the 3rd wave of the iii looks to be the shortest wave so I'm not sure.

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1399634972281.png

If the CNY chart is indeed a 5 waver, then the abA count in the Stamp chart might be right. The different markets do follow each other but sometimes take slightly different paths to get there. Stamp with a 3-3-5 and CNY with a 5-3-5 could be that type of situation.

i wasnt aware that I labelled an extended third. it are you referring to the (i)? that could be just iii. either way these charts are behaving impulsively.

Yes! By nesting 1-2's, you are implying an extended 3rd. It's not a big deal but unless there is overlap, you wouldn't normally count it that way until you have 9 waves (impulse with an extension).

Just trying to help :)

here is an agressive possible count.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tFarwusE/

Today I have two bear charts.
Simply put, there isn't really a bullish count from an EW perspective without forcing it. The rise off the $339 low has no impulsive properties, and the following consolidation has been too long for a corrective wave to that rise if it were a bullish impulse. One is bearish short to mid term. The other is a little bearish short term with a bullish midterm before turning back bearish for a final impulse lower.

Bearish short-mid term
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1400044943997.png

I have been waiting on a rise to $450 or so for the last two days. It hasn't come yet, but we may see it in the next hours to a day.
If this is the count, expect a test of $400 in the coming weeks to complete 3  of III down.

Bear-Bull-Bear chart
http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1400046513834.png

As with the first count, $450 or so looks to be in the near term, but with this count, a C to complete a large (B) once the triangle completes before heading up in the large (C) from a chart I posted in the last week or two with a target of $500+.

Targets for the C of (B) would be as follows;

• A triangle thrust target of something around $400
• 61.8%-100% the length of (A) around $380-331 respectively

Should the (B) make a new low, then expect the lower end of the (C) target mentioned previously. Likely <$550.


I'd like to see something new from CryptoWaves to see his view of the situation.

Would you mind giving a bigger picture of that? With dates and such... It looks much different than the other markets, and I'm interested in what is really going on.

Looking at a zoomed in view of BS, it might jut be this current rise since $430!?!

I apologize for the gap in updates. I'll get an update posted this weekend.

New post up! Get ready for a large move in either direction.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-wave-count-update-may-19th-2014/

wow there was a large move all right!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MG0ZxRo3/
I imagine we are following this trend line then?

This seems to be the case. very bullish above 460.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MtIMFZgN/

Very clean counting there, chessnut.

For my previous post, b-(2) is playing out as a zig zag instead of a triangle. Looking for another low below 420 for c-(2). If price rises above 520, the 78% retrace of a-(2), then this will be modified. The alternative count is that (2) ended at 420.

Ascending triangle on the 15 minute chart - should get one more leg higher.

you just beat me to it lol. this?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UcHFHy5H/

The fractals aren't perfect but this is maybe a possibility?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/noJVrHez/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pkyAAqLQ/

seems like an over shoot. could correct deep.

seems to me like this

https://www.tradingview.com/x/P4QpguMm/

just an idea..... this is behaving impulsively.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xHiyPWSG/

seems like this may be the one...

Hello everyone! Long absence due to being out of the country for two weeks for work. New post - no EWave count, but I wanted to share this very reliable indicator with you all. Any questions, feel free to shoot and hopefully I'll get some time for an updated EWave count this weekend.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/long-btc-on-daily-momentum-squeeze-indicator/

I really like this thread hope it comes back alive again soon

Thanks for a great blog. I read constantly.

Thanks for the comments. I wasn't sure if anyone was still reading.

Here's an update for everyone. Shoot any questions my way in the site comments or in this thread and I'll be sure to address them. Wave count details are on the site!

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-wave-count-july-14th-2014/

Who's Elliott and what's the theory behind this?

You seem to pick out waves by hand, it that not very error prone?

Check out the 'Elliott Wave Basics' section on my site.

Applying the wave counts takes a great deal of 'reading' the charts. It's often said that if you get 5 Elliott Wave technicians together, they will all give a different count. Finding the correct count is the difficult part. For example, in my most recent post, theres important price levels that I noted, which if breached, would lead to alternate count variations.

More simply, there's more than one possible wave count at any given time and the one I present on the site is the highest probability based on my view of many indicators.

Before making this thread, I only ever found extremely simplified wave counts with big 1-2-3-4-5, paying no attention to fibonacci ratios or multi level wave degrees. It's very likely that I wasn't looking in the right spots because many other members have shown they know EWave as well.

Check out how well prophetx's count from the top of this thread page worked.  ;)

Bitcoin price setting up for another directional move. Which way will it break?  :-*

http://www.cryptowaves.com/btc-daily-squeeze-july-18th-2014/

So the method is never wrong, you just picked the "wrong" waves. Sounds very convienent. It reminds me of astrology. But I will give you the benefit of the doubt. I'll wait a month, and if the results stands I will listen.

Elliott Wave provides a rough roadmap of where price of any instrument may be heading. Looking for critical price levels of previous waves and fibonacci extensions gives a great deal more information than one would have if they just blindly buy or sell their Bitcoin when they have a gut feeling. Going short or long and setting a stop at critical price levels is a great way to use this method.

Look, I've already provided this link on my site that explains a safe way to use EWave to make trades.
http://education.afraidtotrade.com/education/elliott-wave-principle/

From my post last night, I show through my methods that a directional move is coming. It's technical analysis, not EWave work. Combining the two tells us that a wave iii UP or DOWN is coming. If you are unsure about the direction Bitcoin is heading right now then wait for a trend to establish itself and hop on in the direction of that trend once it is more clear, as explained in the link above.

Spelled out even more clearly

• If Bitcoin is in a wave iii down move, price will drop below 608, the wave i down low, before it moves above 642. This is the EWave count from my Thursday post.
• If Bitcoin is in a wave iii up move, price will rise above 642 (an alternate wave i high, if price is finished correcting moving into a new uptrend) before it drops below 608

The primary count is looking good. No adjustments are needed to the count at this time.

The daily squeeze has not confirmed the breakout to the downside, yet, but it is very close. I will post an update when it triggers.

that was actually chessnut who did that I PM'ed to see if he was willing to do another

Bitcoin hourly Elliot Wave count has been updated at the site. Slight modifications were made to the wave count. Still in wave (b) of Minor 2 instead of in wave (c) of Minor 2 as proposed in my most recent update.

http://www.cryptowaves.com/bitcoin-usd-hourly-wave-count-august-11th-2014/


Enjoy!

I could see this as another possible count!
Still, I have a problem with the major 1. My Bullish count uses it, too, but I just can't get past the clear(er) 3 wave structure up from $339. I have to give it the benefit of the doubt, and accept that the 4 you have labeled in it, though very disproportionate to the 2, might be the count. :)

Just as an aside; My Bearish count easily counts that as a zig-zag abc (5-3-5 for those not paying attention :P) which is why I can't get full-on Bullish yet.  :-\

Good work, CW!

Thanks! I mentioned my issues with the short wave (4)-1 in the July 14th wave count post. Ideally, wave (4) should be the one that drifts sideways and burns time while wave (2) would be impulsive.

The bearish count is great to keep an eye on, though I will not make that a primary or consider it as a high probability option until the 78% retrace of Minor 1 at $415 is lost. I would expect a tremendous amount of buying power to step in that that level. In the short term, the 1-2 bull count and the bearish count both show price moving down.

Just jumped over to my daily squeeze chart that I've highlighted previously. The daily squeeze is setting up again, which is very exciting. I'll update on that as price settles a bit.

Where is the wave pointing now? Is this a good buy or good sell?

Please read the last post at my site or my last post in this thread.

CryptoWaves and Ryan, you guys make TA look so damn easy!

I've never been a huge fan for the markets in which I trade.  Information asymmetry, earnings, and events have always seemed to drive price action in my world...it just makes sense to me.  But with BTC, underlying fundamentals are truly less obvious. 

I haven't been watching your work long enough to say for certain that you're market oracles or anything, but you both have a great style of writing about what you are watching that is helpful.

I'm a grown ass man and I'm going to do what I think is right to do, but I think it's interesting that you guys are both looking at some upcoming opportunities if one keeps one's powder dry.  Ryan, as I recall, you're looking at a probably retrace to $540 by late August (which matches a smaller wave that Crypto also has mapped out as possible), and CryptoWaves has us going sub $500 ($415-470 range in September).  You both, as I recall, have $607 as invalidating that count?

I think it's definitely worth watching and maybe keeping a little powder dry.  Thanks for sharing!!!

Thanks for the kind words! I don't know about an oracle, but....

I don't want to take over CW' thread as  I have done in the past... He was a good sport about it and I appreciate that! That's why I started my own. But I will field this question since it was toward both of us.
According to his most recent update, CW has invalidation of $607.20 to the top-side and $555.90 to the lower. This is because he has a triangle and if either recent price extremes are broken (wave-b or wave-c), the triangle becomes invalid. His main Bullish invalidation is at $420.27 as is mine (the beginning of the minor wave-(1)). However, since I have an impulsive count taking us down a bit sooner than the triangle scenario, my invalidation is at the wave-1 low which is $607.90. This is because of the rule stating that wave-4 cannot enter the price territory of wave-1 (unless it's a diagonal which it clearly is not).

I hope this clears it up!?

I don't rule out a drop into the $400's, myself, but I wasn't going to post that until the time calls for such a projection. My wave-(C)/wave-1 (Bullish/Bearish respectively) count is just a projection using Fibo based off the currently formed waves and typical targets, so nothing too drastic until the waves decide to start extending. At which time I will revise targets and counts as necessary.

Bitcoin price moved below the bottom trendline of the triangle that I showed in the previous post. There was no final wave e as I projected, but the triangle is still valid. Price should continue heading lower for wave (c)-2.


Supporting this argument is a daily Squeeze that fired short, meaning downward price action should continue for 6-10 days. The signal is finished once the Momentum (14) indicator goes up for two bars (two days).
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q4fWZ9FT/

Is there anything to make of the fact that this wave down seems to be happening in an accelerated fashion as compared to the chart?  Or am I just misreading the chart?  It looks like you had projected this move down to happen sometime in the future, not right now.

It's because it isn't an Elliott Wave at all... it is a straight line heading East Southeast... maybe even South Southeast

The timing on the chart are not to be taken literally, they are just estimates. The drop is playing out exactly how I said it would once the bottom of the triangle gets taken out. Price movement is the most important aspect to watch.

Thanks for the clarification.

By the chart, it looks like you'd expect some kind of a turn (preferably with volume) somewhere between 415 and 470?

And I'm guessing that you would not recommend trying to catch the bottom, but rather waiting until there is a clear turn with volume?  Then maybe buying on the way back up, hopefully early, once indicators have turned?

My primary count of Bitcoin being in a Minor 2 wave down is actually valid down to the previous C-[Y] low at $339.79. Wave 2's can retrace all of the wave 1 move without breaking any EWave rules. More realistically, wave 2 should not retrace more than 88% of a wave 1. The 88% retrace of Minor 1 is $383.




I expect Minor 2 to reach the minute (c) = minute (a) target of 429, at least. I don't want to be giving trading advice, so you'll have to assess whether your position sizing allows for 'catching the bottom'. Enter trades with a plan based on price targets and you will be ahead of most traders and if you are just holding for the long term, consider buying in increments rather than buying all the same time.

Congrats on your analysis working out - we're right between your targets currently. Looking forward to what's next.

Bump - hi, any updates on how close we are to completing 2? Thanks!

Too busy for a detailed update with price commentary at the moment. I had been toying with this chart last weekend right after the low around $380 and prior to the PayPal news - thought I should finally put it on the board.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/7Et9UWaM/



Share it with your Twitter followers!

https://twitter.com/CryptoWaves/status/515377834395570176

retweeted!  thanks!

I hope CryptoWaves would forgive me for cluttering his topic. This must be the best place for EW analysis as long as RyNinDaCleM closed his blog.

So I believe we are in the end of extended wave (5). They are quite common for Bitcoin. Wave 5 of (5) seems to going to extend as well. Notice how fibo extensions play out.
The only thing that bothers me is that on BTC-e wave (4) enters the price range of (1). However it's not for Bitstamp. I was starting to think it's not 4th wave, though it looks like expanding triangle and subwaves are looking legit for that.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/aDzYSVGf/

forget about btce use bitstamp and huobi

Bitfinex seems to have become more important than Bitstamp. Bitfinex can be found on Tradingview as well.

Looks like we got flat correction here (a-b-c on the chart). Moreover, EWO crossed zero upwards, so now it seems like wave 4 is complete or almost complete. I'd expect one small leg up to 380-381 for wave c to have clear five subwaves.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8BYvggJM/

I don't mind Queeq, though I don't have much time to chart BTC recently - you may want to open a new EWave thread.

Could be a nice looking ending diagonal just wrapped up the 5th wave down? See a 4 or 6 hr stamp chart.