Bitcoin Forum

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, (https://cointelegraph.com/news/el-salvador-bukele-bitcoin-1b-prediction-markets-kalshi-polymarket) have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

Honestly seems like a slam dunk bet IMO. Already over 2/3rds of the way there and a little over 4 months left to get there. If they don't get there it'll be close as the country seems to be relying on bitcoin to save them. They're not gonna give up, they're motivated.

Why not? If you look at the current situation happening in EL Salvador they made lot of developments for Bitcoin, they also include this on their curriculum so that lots their citizens will be educated towards Bitcoin.

So with those things we can assume already that they are for long term with Bitcoin. So those $1 Billion worth of Bitcoin is really possible knowing that they are aggressive on their accumulation.

Yeah it seems a lot but everything is possible if you have good leader which is so dedicated or committed with their investment done on Bitcoin. I'm curious if those people vote that El Salvador would achieve the target will win or not.

As for me, i don`t ready to bet that they would reach $1bln in this year - they don`t cares about results and wouldn`t buy BTC faster to reach such goal.
But the same time it is possible: if BTC would grow up to $150.000 - they would need to spend just about $50mln. It seems much easier than $300mln, isn`t it?

I think they can push to add additional 300M but I doubt they will do it for the sake of this bet.

Bitcoin is showing a slight price correction from ATM and maybe they will use this opportunity to purchase more Bitcoin. Also they might just teasing the public to create another hype on Bitcoin for new ATH since they are the one who will benefit on it when Bitcoin price pump.

A country that already invested 700M will have no problem to add more.

I feel like they can do it.

Also, they have two options to make it happen. One is to buy more Bitcoins. Two is when there's a sudden increase in the value of Bitcoin. 4 months. We know the Ber months were good with Bitcoin, and it's possible that the value will increase if El Salvador buys more. I mean, they might not even need to go buy exactly the amount needed in Bitcoin because there's a high chance it will increase while they are accumulating more through demand.

  Yeah, pretty interesting stuff… El Salvador and their Bitcoin stash back in the spotlight again...))
Bukele posted about Kalshi prediction market where people are betting that their BTC holdings will hit $1B by the end of 2025.
After his tweet, the odds for “before Nov 2025” jumped from 20% to 38%, then cooled down to 27%.
Polymarket jumped in too with a similar bet — they’re giving 43% for “before Dec 2025.”
Funny thing is, back in August those odds were only around 18–24%.
Personally, I think they’ll get to $1B by late 2025, they only need another $300M… but the real question is, what will BTC price be in Dec 2025?

If they still invest 1 BTC per day, that means they will buy around 120 BTC by the end of the year - and if BTC stays at the current price levels, then there is no chance of approaching the value of $1 billion. The only chance for their 6000+ BTC to reach that value is for the price to increase, or for them to request a loan from the IMF to buy extra BTC ::)

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I don't see in which realistic scenario investing in BTC would save that country - since Bukele came to power, the debt has increased by as much as $11 billion, and if I'm not mistaken, it is now over $32 billion. $700 million or $1 billion is completely irrelevant in their case, and it wouldn't help them even if BTC became x10 more valuable overnight.

They may or not achieve it. If they remain committed and bitcoin price turns out in their favor, that's if bitcoin price can hit $150k on or before December 25th, the worth of their bitcoin holdings of $700 million with the additional ones that they will be accumulating might push the price of their bitcoin portfolio to $1 billion.

I love such bet because it will motivate other countries to follow the footstep of El Salvador bitcoin accumulation strategy because it's very effective on gradual increase of your bitcoin holdings.

With the IMF loan that has anti Bitcoin clauses, I am not sure El Salvador will be able to make it to $1Billoin worth of Bitcoin. This international lending organisation is slowing downs the countries Bitcoin policy But does this bet only include them buying because it is possible that if the price of Bitcoin grows it might hit that amount. Polymarket is known for weird bets but I think this one is reasonable.

$300 million to acquire Bitcoin for a country like El Salvador is a lot, adding to their loan with the IMF, and the loan conditions—let us also not forget the fact that it took them almost 4 years, if not more, to actually reach the number they are now, and we have just 4 months left for them to reach the $1 billion Bitcoin accumulation volume. It's a lot more for them if you ask me unless they will take it as a challenge and want to go extra just to hit that target, which I think they are not economically ready for.

It is a big task and test that can only be achieved if they see it as challenge because they would be looking at not turning people who are betting on them down. I don't know how viable they are for more loan because they don't look buoyant economically to carry on with the challenge alone. To acquire 300 btc in 4 months is quite alot of money for a country that was not considering and planning towards that for now.

Well, they’re still quite a bit short. $150K doesn’t seem too far off, but the price this year has been rising very slowly, and the year is relentlessly coming to an end. I wouldn’t bet on them hitting a billion.

But if I were in the Salvadoran government’s shoes, I’d bet everything on the “no” side. After all, these markets don’t accept Bitcoin as stakes, right? So they’d have to sell some to place the bet. That would make it a risk-free move.

Or they could sell gradually and keep adding to the bet if the price keeps going up, while their overall stack of Bitcoin gets closer to a billion.

There's a bet for everything, and this isn't the most absurd one I've ever seen. I wouldn't bet on it, but my guess is that with only three months left in the year, it might not be possible to reach $1 billion in Bitcoin. Of this amount, more than half comes from profits from the rise in Bitcoin, not from the total purchases. To reach this amount from profits alone, Bitcoin would have to reach $200,000 (given that at the time, BTC was costing an average of $95,000).

https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/el-salvadors-bitcoin-portfolio-surpasses-644-million-357-million-profit-up-124-5a43634a

I remember reading something about El Salvador's BTC reserve and that they were trying to find out if Bukele was really buying 1 BTC per day or if he had already bought it all at once, but I don't remember the conclusion

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https://www.talkimg.com/images/2025/08/28/UZpUe9.png

Yesterday I saw this post by Bukele and didn't fully understand the context, but now I get it, hehehe
I'm going to calculate how much BTC needs to be worth (exactly) for the reserve to be worth 1 billion

It's a nice bet, huh? If there's a year-end rally, it might actually reach 1 billion

If El Salvador have $700k in Bitcoin right now, it means they they have real interest in Bitcoin as they depend on it in the future. However it takes them years to achieve $700k in Bitcoin and you we are on the eight month of the year already and $300k isn't a small amount of money either, so I'm not sure if El Salvador can provide such amount of money within 4 months. But let's hope they did get $300k to starch up their Bitcoin portfolio before the year ends.

Yes, it's an interesting and risky bet.
And indeed, if they're simply hoping to leverage their existing capital to reach $1 billion without making any purchases or accumulation over the next few months, I don't think it's likely.
However, if they do so and continue accumulating before reaching their target, it's possible, depending on whether they make more purchases to increase their holdings and the Bitcoin price increases later this year. We'll see.

They need Bitcoin price to cross $156K-$159K, depends on the time.

It's scary to bet in this event, people are relying a single person who can completely affect the result. Imagine if Nayib Bukele is actually a part of betting in this event, so he can make much more rather than just accumulating Bitcoin.

If they can afford to buy over 700 million I dont see why they can buy the extra 300 million to complete it a billion.

El Salvador has been investing their country's money into Bitcoin, only God knows how they have been doing it and from where they get that amount to invest in Bitcoin. People never really expected them to afford more 200 million when they started the move but now they have over 700 million.

Well, we have less than 5 months for the year to come to an end, and it is possible for them to get over a billion.

If you have the option that it would not reach that value by December and you wanted to place a bet, then that would be the best option, because I highly doubt that the president of El Salvador will buy $300 million worth of bitcoin by December and I also highly doubt that the price will be able to rise so much that the $700 million will pass $1 billion. That's why my betting option would be that it will not be able to reach $1 billion by December. I don't know if that option exists and what the odds will be at the moment for that option.

If the president has already found out about this, then in my estimation he will want to get a billion worth of bitcoin and make the prediction true. It will make him more popular and in the political sphere, it is a popularity contest. Popular among his people, popular among other politicians both within and outside the nation. They can attract the kind of foreign investment that will bring them to the goal of $300 million. I do not know the political space of the country so well, but I believe that this is possible.

Their chance is still very possible of course especially with the remaining time that is currently still a few months left before the end of 2025 and consistent continuous purchases with a DCA of 1 bitcoin / day clearly they still have the opportunity to improve their condition to have $1 billion in bitcoin at the end of the year of course with some notes.

El Savador is still very serious about the development of bitcoin in their country so even if they don't achieve that then I don't think it's a big deal but as long as they want to do it then they will work hard to create that which even if there are many people who say it's impossible but they will still make it possible.
But regardless of the outcome we will just have to wait and see whether or not this speculation will become a reality in the end in a few months.

Actually I look at this El Salvador bet and see a lot of hype. They're at $700 million and need another $300 million to hit a billion by 2025. Yeah Bitcoin's price could do all the work for them and Bukele's tweets are more like a showman's trick to influence the market. But I'm still not touching that "yes" bet. The odds aren't good enough and there are too many variables like the IMF and wild price swings and when everyone's betting on the same thing it usually means the smart money has already cashed out.

I'd be looking to bet "no" hoping for a surprise price drop or a change in their strategy because the real value is in betting against the crowd sometimes.

Just $300 million to get to $1 billion, I think that can be achieved before the end of 2025 but that's if the El Salvador government only wants to meet up with that target by the end of the year. What if the bet is even rigged, I mean if the betting platform secretly tell el Salvador not to buy more Bitcoin until after this year, just so that bettors can lose their bets. If it plays out fairly, I would bet on El Salvador holding to reach $1 billion before end of 2025 because I assume they can buy more Bitcoin before next year.

If they could invest to this extent, then I don't think that $700 million is something smalll that they cannot acheive having more in the future to any extent, all it may require is time, except they never wanted it, while as for those gambling this, I guess they already knows about the things happening over there in El-Salvador and their future plan to buy more investing, but to me it's still a risk game to predict on uncertainty, but people can gamble on anything and am not surprised at all on this.

Nah I can not afford to bet on such poly market because it can be manipulated. How about if the El Salvador Bitcoin reserve administrators are behind the bookmaker providing this event in their sites with the interest of extracting money from the masses in the name of gaming? Will really be a massive failure for bettors betted on one direction in accord to if they can achieve the $1B worth of Bitcoin before the year or not.

To be honest, I am skeptical about this kind of bets because the bookmaker could keep users on track in corporation with the El Salvador Bitcoins administrators and reacts to their Bitcoin portfolios against the majority of bettors which means the El Salvador and the bookmakers in connection might be unfair.

But I can freely tell it that El Salvador can hold up to that amount of $1B in the stipulated time I'd they want as a federation. So the risk to bet on this event will be very high.

If they manage to reach $700 million, which is already a substantial amount, then they can also break into the $1 billion mark. They are motivated and do not consider the risks inherent in the cryptocurrency market.

$1 billion is a significant achievement; if they still have the funds, they will likely reach their goal and serve as an example to other countries that want Bitcoin to be part of their reserves. They can double the amount they stake if the market turns to their favour.

I don’t use polymarket because of some of the bets there which are against my moral beliefs, but for this current market that you brought here @Op.

I think there is a very high probability of El Salvador hitting that target or probably very close like $900 million or just a few million away from $1 billion - so those who are going to support El Salvador’s hitting that target are at an advantage than those who are against it because El Salvador aren’t just quiet about bitcoin; they are constantly making moves and if the movement continues like this they are sure to surpass that target.

I'm not familiar with betting on Polymarket and Kelshi, so I've never bet there, and betting there is a bit strange, contrary to my moral beliefs.

According to some of the comments above, El Salvador now has 700 million and still needs another 300 million to reach 1 billion but I don't know the exact amount right now however it is possible for a country to reach that target, but it depends on how the president handles it.

That's interesting.

They're the first one to adopt bitcoin as a legal tender and so, there could be some real money sitting there if Bukele tries to hit that or not.

He can silently bet under the bet of no, they can't make it. And does nothing until the end of this year. Or opt to make it and then tries to attract investors or lenders to come to him and let him do that.

Would not bet but I'm pretty sure El Salvador is getting there already maybe an additional accumulation will increase the already existing chances but if they only rely on the bitcoin they already have I guess they will be having 1 billion soon because we already in the last quarter of the year bitcoin is about to make something magical and the government already is  hoping bitcoin  save them so thous raising another 300 million to get there would seem like a challenge since they owe IMF but I'm pretty sure they will get there.

They're also a gambling platform but they're more of the predictions. So, you bet on what might happen in the future.
While some of the bets there are seriously against the moral beliefs of many of us. Because some of the available bets there are about war.
And others that we definitely going to feel bad about it. For the amount of BTC that El Salvador owns, this website[1] show how much they have.
It is currently 6,246 BTC or estimated $701.90M.
[1] https://bitbo.io/treasuries/el-salvador/

From your post, if a country has secured 700 million dollars worth of Bitcoin what a heal is 300 million they wouldn't achieve?
To me this I possible to achieve it , it could be that the time frame is too close but certainly they must gained Bitcoin worth of 1 Billion dollars. From my little understanding, that particular country has a deep Love for Bitcoin and they not really ready to give up now rather they are keeping their energy burning to save up lot of Bitcoin in their possession.

Yes, of course exists and you can win almost the same amount if you buy/bet on "No". Not to mention that you can sell any of your bets on any occasion/event/sport.😉

https://talkimg.com/images/2025/08/28/UZDGdf.png


Totally based on the bet odds as of now, it's a 50/50 chance. But since the difficulty of reaching that number is such a short time, I would take the risk and bet on the "No". Sounds more reasonable to my ears.

I don’t think they’ll be able to add another $300 million to their Bitcoin investment by the end of the year. They just secured a $1.4 billion loan from the IMF, and the agreement stipulated that they need to reduce their Bitcoin investment and maintain healthy and stable national finances. And since the loan is being disbursed gradually, they must manage their finances carefully and minimize their Bitcoin exposure to secure future loan disbursements. For this reason, the possibility of them adding another $300 million to their Bitcoin investment by the end of the year is almost impossible, as their financial activities are closely monitored by the IMF.

I would not go near to that market, honestly. It is easily manipulable by a single entity as the government of the El Salvador is...
Bukele could purposely bet on himself managing to get another three hundred million worth of Bitcoin and them proceed to buy that amount of money in Bitcoin, for the sake of getting all the money of bettors for himself and the government of his country. Once the person itself becomes aware of the bets being placed on him/her, it is not longer save to place money on it.

There are better markets if one desires to toss some dollars and see what happens... Bukele could feel too tempted to ignore this chance to get free money...

My answer is that your question is yes, and no.
Yes, in fact that despite how huge the remaining $300 million investment in Bitcoin is for El Salvador to reach a billion dollar worth of Bitcoin holder, they can achieve the $300 million investment fund if they can boost their country's acceptance of BTC as payment, and also do something that will every crypto related businesses see El Salvador as the destination to visit relaxation, business, and fete of experiencing of the use of crypto in the real world.

I like that some casinos use the concept for a gambling experience.

Prediction markets are growing and are catching the eyes of gamblers and non gamblers alike with very trendy predictions. This is not like a bet though and it is easy to make some money on this one. The data is everywhere and since the president of El Salvador knows of this, well I would say that he will do what is necessary to say in the news for all the right reasons.

Do I think El Salvador will get it? Yes. They will.

If the platform secretly cheats on its bets, it will ruin its own reputation in order to win bets, and it is impossible for them to do just that.

The news is that El Salvador has taken out a loan from the IMF. Could it be just for this purpose? I don't think so, because they know what they are going to do.
One way to reach $1 billion is with a drastic increase in BTC at the end of the year. :D

Yes, it's a big gamble. When you have to guess the value of a country's total reserves of Bitcoin and bet on it, it can be confusing for a gambler. El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has accepted Bitcoin as legal tender and is regularly accumulating Bitcoin.
As the value of Bitcoin increases the value of the stack in his portfolio will increase enormously. If I were asked to participate in such a bet especially one based on speculation I would not be prepared to take the risk.

I'm curious if this kind of bet could be influenced by an insider, like inside trading.
For example, any staff or people related to the government, specifically in the same department where these Bitcoin purchases by El Salvador will always know the plan, especially the future plan, or even close to their president. It can be easy money if you know the result of this bet.

I am not familiar with kalshi and polymarket so I don't bet on that. If Bitcoin price increases high, they can just have $1 billion or even more by the end of 2025. But if not, they will not hit that. All will depend on the market situation because if the crypto market is down, they can not reach that. They can hope that the market will increase and Bitcoin gets the bull run so they can book that profit. We will see what happens to their Bitcoin investment so it is interesting to wait for the result.

Polymarket may be setting themselves up for some big losses with this type of bets that can easily be manipulated. Assuming the odd for El Salvador meeting that target is higher than the odd of them not meeting that target, the government of El Salvador can just speed of things and meet the target after betting heavily on these platforms through their friends and allies. On the other hand, if the odd of not meeting the target is higher, the government might just decide to keep all their Bitcoin accumulation to January 2026 and then bet heavily on failing to meet the target. I know either of these will not happen but listing events that can be manipulated is not a good one for me.

 Looks to me like the billion mark is well within reach.... with 6,282 BTC in the stash and spot around $110k, they’re already stacking nearly $692M, just a hop away.
They don’t even need to stack more coins to cross the 1Billion mark — all it takes is BTC pushing up to around 159.2k. And some talking heads are even calling 180k–220k… which wouldn’t shock any of us who’ve been around since the $3 pizza days.

So yeah, those Kalshi and Polymarket bets.... not degen lotto tickets, more like a legit wager if you ask me.

That is true mate, such people that are close to knowing what the plans of the president in El Salvador will be, whether to purchase more Bitcoin to make it $1,000,000,000 will always be the winner or even some random bettors out there. Actually to me I dine really know if they can make it up $1B in 2025 because the year is almost rounding up as we are in August already and August is almost coming to an end, so I don't believe if El Salvador can achieve that this year as $300M is a huge sum of money.

Reaching $1 billion from ~$700 million is a 30% difference; you can't say that is just a hoop away. Neither is it easy to see our beloved King climbing @160k. Don't misunderstand me,  I'm not saying that it isn't possible or that it can't be done in the upcoming months/years. I'm just saying that it's not as easy as others present it. But this is a bet, so anyone can choose whatever they think will happen.😉

I get what you’re saying, but I’m not throwing out 160k just for fun — that number is backed by a lot of analysts. For example (https://x.com/nsquaredvalue/status/1960011963850752343?), network economist Timothy Peterson has a model predicting Bitcoin could hit 160k by the end of 2025 based on historical Q4 price action.

He points out that in about 70% of cases, Bitcoin rallies in the four months leading up to Christmas, with an average gain of 44%. So we’re looking at a solid 70%+ probability of hitting 160k before year-end — and El Salvador reaching the $1B mark.

I'm sure that you didn't throw it out of luck. This situation has indeed been historically proven correct. However, we can't dismiss the fact that the upcoming months will be different since we are living in different times and a different crypto era. Of course, personally, I want this scenario to be true and BTC hits more than 160k by the end of the year. But I'm a bit skeptical to bet on the "Yes", that's all.