El Salvador's bitcoin

[kotajikikox]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

[yahoo62278]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

Honestly seems like a slam dunk bet IMO. Already over 2/3rds of the way there and a little over 4 months left to get there. If they don't get there it'll be close as the country seems to be relying on bitcoin to save them. They're not gonna give up, they're motivated.

[arwin100]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

Why not? If you look at the current situation happening in EL Salvador they made lot of developments for Bitcoin, they also include this on their curriculum so that lots their citizens will be educated towards Bitcoin.

So with those things we can assume already that they are for long term with Bitcoin. So those $1 Billion worth of Bitcoin is really possible knowing that they are aggressive on their accumulation.

Yeah it seems a lot but everything is possible if you have good leader which is so dedicated or committed with their investment done on Bitcoin. I'm curious if those people vote that El Salvador would achieve the target will win or not.

[mak013]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

As for me, i don`t ready to bet that they would reach $1bln in this year - they don`t cares about results and wouldn`t buy BTC faster to reach such goal.
But the same time it is possible: if BTC would grow up to $150.000 - they would need to spend just about $50mln. It seems much easier than $300mln, isn`t it?

[AbuBhakar]

Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

I think they can push to add additional 300M but I doubt they will do it for the sake of this bet.

Bitcoin is showing a slight price correction from ATM and maybe they will use this opportunity to purchase more Bitcoin. Also they might just teasing the public to create another hype on Bitcoin for new ATH since they are the one who will benefit on it when Bitcoin price pump.

A country that already invested 700M will have no problem to add more.

[danherbias07]

I feel like they can do it.

Also, they have two options to make it happen. One is to buy more Bitcoins. Two is when there's a sudden increase in the value of Bitcoin. 4 months. We know the Ber months were good with Bitcoin, and it's possible that the value will increase if El Salvador buys more. I mean, they might not even need to go buy exactly the amount needed in Bitcoin because there's a high chance it will increase while they are accumulating more through demand.

[Alex077]

  Yeah, pretty interesting stuff… El Salvador and their Bitcoin stash back in the spotlight again...))
Bukele posted about Kalshi prediction market where people are betting that their BTC holdings will hit $1B by the end of 2025.
After his tweet, the odds for “before Nov 2025” jumped from 20% to 38%, then cooled down to 27%.
Polymarket jumped in too with a similar bet — they’re giving 43% for “before Dec 2025.”
Funny thing is, back in August those odds were only around 18–24%.
Personally, I think they’ll get to $1B by late 2025, they only need another $300M… but the real question is, what will BTC price be in Dec 2025?

[Lucius]

~snip~
So with those things we can assume already that they are for long term with Bitcoin. So those $1 Billion worth of Bitcoin is really possible knowing that they are aggressive on their accumulation.

If they still invest 1 BTC per day, that means they will buy around 120 BTC by the end of the year - and if BTC stays at the current price levels, then there is no chance of approaching the value of $1 billion. The only chance for their 6000+ BTC to reach that value is for the price to increase, or for them to request a loan from the IMF to buy extra BTC

Honestly seems like a slam dunk bet IMO. Already over 2/3rds of the way there and a little over 4 months left to get there. If they don't get there it'll be close as the country seems to be relying on bitcoin to save them. They're not gonna give up, they're motivated.

I don't see in which realistic scenario investing in BTC would save that country - since Bukele came to power, the debt has increased by as much as $11 billion, and if I'm not mistaken, it is now over $32 billion. $700 million or $1 billion is completely irrelevant in their case, and it wouldn't help them even if BTC became x10 more valuable overnight.

[Ruttoshi]

I think they can push to add additional 300M but I doubt they will do it for the sake of this bet.

Bitcoin is showing a slight price correction from ATM and maybe they will use this opportunity to purchase more Bitcoin. Also they might just teasing the public to create another hype on Bitcoin for new ATH since they are the one who will benefit on it when Bitcoin price pump.

A country that already invested 700M will have no problem to add more.

They may or not achieve it. If they remain committed and bitcoin price turns out in their favor, that's if bitcoin price can hit $150k on or before December 25th, the worth of their bitcoin holdings of $700 million with the additional ones that they will be accumulating might push the price of their bitcoin portfolio to $1 billion.

I love such bet because it will motivate other countries to follow the footstep of El Salvador bitcoin accumulation strategy because it's very effective on gradual increase of your bitcoin holdings.

[Fiatless]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

With the IMF loan that has anti Bitcoin clauses, I am not sure El Salvador will be able to make it to $1Billoin worth of Bitcoin. This international lending organisation is slowing downs the countries Bitcoin policy But does this bet only include them buying because it is possible that if the price of Bitcoin grows it might hit that amount. Polymarket is known for weird bets but I think this one is reasonable.

[Nwada001]

Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

$300 million to acquire Bitcoin for a country like El Salvador is a lot, adding to their loan with the IMF, and the loan conditions—let us also not forget the fact that it took them almost 4 years, if not more, to actually reach the number they are now, and we have just 4 months left for them to reach the $1 billion Bitcoin accumulation volume. It's a lot more for them if you ask me unless they will take it as a challenge and want to go extra just to hit that target, which I think they are not economically ready for.

[Gozie51]

It is a big task and test that can only be achieved if they see it as challenge because they would be looking at not turning people who are betting on them down. I don't know how viable they are for more loan because they don't look buoyant economically to carry on with the challenge alone. To acquire 300 btc in 4 months is quite alot of money for a country that was not considering and planning towards that for now.

[internetional]

Well, they’re still quite a bit short. $150K doesn’t seem too far off, but the price this year has been rising very slowly, and the year is relentlessly coming to an end. I wouldn’t bet on them hitting a billion.

But if I were in the Salvadoran government’s shoes, I’d bet everything on the “no” side. After all, these markets don’t accept Bitcoin as stakes, right? So they’d have to sell some to place the bet. That would make it a risk-free move.

Or they could sell gradually and keep adding to the bet if the price keeps going up, while their overall stack of Bitcoin gets closer to a billion.

[r_victory]

There's a bet for everything, and this isn't the most absurd one I've ever seen. I wouldn't bet on it, but my guess is that with only three months left in the year, it might not be possible to reach $1 billion in Bitcoin. Of this amount, more than half comes from profits from the rise in Bitcoin, not from the total purchases. To reach this amount from profits alone, Bitcoin would have to reach $200,000 (given that at the time, BTC was costing an average of $95,000).

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Portfolio Surpasses $644 Million With $357 Million Profit, Up 124% on $287 Million Investment

https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/el-salvadors-bitcoin-portfolio-surpasses-644-million-357-million-profit-up-124-5a43634a

[rdluffy]

~snip~
So with those things we can assume already that they are for long term with Bitcoin. So those $1 Billion worth of Bitcoin is really possible knowing that they are aggressive on their accumulation.

If they still invest 1 BTC per day, that means they will buy around 120 BTC by the end of the year - and if BTC stays at the current price levels, then there is no chance of approaching the value of $1 billion. The only chance for their 6000+ BTC to reach that value is for the price to increase, or for them to request a loan from the IMF to buy extra BTC

I remember reading something about El Salvador's BTC reserve and that they were trying to find out if Bukele was really buying 1 BTC per day or if he had already bought it all at once, but I don't remember the conclusion




Yesterday I saw this post by Bukele and didn't fully understand the context, but now I get it, hehehe
I'm going to calculate how much BTC needs to be worth (exactly) for the reserve to be worth 1 billion

It's a nice bet, huh? If there's a year-end rally, it might actually reach 1 billion

[Su-asa]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

If El Salvador have $700k in Bitcoin right now, it means they they have real interest in Bitcoin as they depend on it in the future. However it takes them years to achieve $700k in Bitcoin and you we are on the eight month of the year already and $300k isn't a small amount of money either, so I'm not sure if El Salvador can provide such amount of money within 4 months. But let's hope they did get $300k to starch up their Bitcoin portfolio before the year ends.

[bitzizzix]

There's a bet for everything, and this isn't the most absurd one I've ever seen. I wouldn't bet on it, but my guess is that with only three months left in the year, it might not be possible to reach $1 billion in Bitcoin. Of this amount, more than half comes from profits from the rise in Bitcoin, not from the total purchases. To reach this amount from profits alone, Bitcoin would have to reach $200,000 (given that at the time, BTC was costing an average of $95,000).

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Portfolio Surpasses $644 Million With $357 Million Profit, Up 124% on $287 Million Investment

https://thedefiant.io/news/markets/el-salvadors-bitcoin-portfolio-surpasses-644-million-357-million-profit-up-124-5a43634a

Yes, it's an interesting and risky bet.
And indeed, if they're simply hoping to leverage their existing capital to reach $1 billion without making any purchases or accumulation over the next few months, I don't think it's likely.
However, if they do so and continue accumulating before reaching their target, it's possible, depending on whether they make more purchases to increase their holdings and the Bitcoin price increases later this year. We'll see.

[Jawhead999]

Yesterday I saw this post by Bukele and didn't fully understand the context, but now I get it, hehehe
I'm going to calculate how much BTC needs to be worth (exactly) for the reserve to be worth 1 billion

It's a nice bet, huh? If there's a year-end rally, it might actually reach 1 billion

They need Bitcoin price to cross $156K-$159K, depends on the time.

It's scary to bet in this event, people are relying a single person who can completely affect the result. Imagine if Nayib Bukele is actually a part of betting in this event, so he can make much more rather than just accumulating Bitcoin.

[Agbamoni]

If they can afford to buy over 700 million I dont see why they can buy the extra 300 million to complete it a billion.

El Salvador has been investing their country's money into Bitcoin, only God knows how they have been doing it and from where they get that amount to invest in Bitcoin. People never really expected them to afford more 200 million when they started the move but now they have over 700 million.

Well, we have less than 5 months for the year to come to an end, and it is possible for them to get over a billion.

[Slow death]

Would you bet on this?

If you have the option that it would not reach that value by December and you wanted to place a bet, then that would be the best option, because I highly doubt that the president of El Salvador will buy $300 million worth of bitcoin by December and I also highly doubt that the price will be able to rise so much that the $700 million will pass $1 billion. That's why my betting option would be that it will not be able to reach $1 billion by December. I don't know if that option exists and what the odds will be at the moment for that option.