Bitcoin Forum

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/high_tech_telecoms_internet/internet_matters

The reference above estimates today's internet contribution to global GDP as 3.4%.

Using an order of magnitude estimate of global GDP of 100 trillion USD, the internet's contribution today is 3 trillion USD.

Using an optimistic guess that a fully evolved BTC economy will embody 50% of the internet economy the optimistic fully evolved BTC "GDP" will reach 1.5 trillion USD.

Using 15 million BTC to make the math easy, one BTC will be worth 100,000 USD in a fully evolved BTC economy.

(Applying this argument to today's price results in an estimate of 0.2% of today's internet economy transacted in BTC.  This is a huge overestimate, which I think can be explained by today's BTC price reflecting investment based on the potential of BTC.)

The only question that should be asked is how much time it will take..? to become  50% of the E-economy

It'll never happen. For the vast majority of consumers, using credit cards for internet commerce is safer, more convenient, and cheaper.

If Glass with its double-nod bitcoin payment catches on we can forget the internet economy, we are looking at a percentage of the total consumer economy. 100k is a conservative lowball estimate.

You made so many post and still not knowing what Bitcoin can do for consumers and retaillers/merchants? You know Overstock has accepting Bitcoin and making tons of money from it, they and we all love Bitcoin for some reason  ;) BitPay got there new EU HQ in Amsterdam and they expecting by they end of this year to have a whopping 35k merchants as there clients. (now 7k).

You need to think bigger, the world is a big place.

Hmm how Credit cards are Safer , Convenient and cheaper than Bitcoin ATY ?

You can get refundend if you have been a victim of a scam. You don´t need to wire money to a bizarre exchange and pay fees. You don´t have to fear volatility. If you get hacked you will also get refunded.
It´s so much easier, safer and also faster to use credit cards.

Credit cards are worthless now, since fiat is now worth 0 BTC, because the CEO of SSL has stolen all the fiat in the world and the banking ponzie has crashed.

You're right on track with Rickard Falkvinge here, although the 100.000 is his low estimate ;-)

btw, found a nice list of predictions for 2014: nr 3 and 4 seems quite realistic from my point of view ;-)
http://crypt.la/2014/03/09/10-professional-bitcoin-price-predictions-2014/

That's assuming nobody will store his wealth in BTC. Which is a wrong assumption.

We can assume that only 25% of all bitcoins will be avaible for payments, the remainder will be use to store wealth.

Also taking the global GDP or GWP is a mistake in my view.

GDP/GWP only account for a subset of global payments. There are a lot of payments which aren't include in these numbers (typically financial transactions and second hand market).

Non cash payments will be 750 trillion $ by 2020 : http://www.capgemini.com/resource-file-access/resource/pdf/The_8th_Annual_World_Payments_Report_2012.pdf
And this non cash payements number doesn't even include the settlements market. Open Transactions assess that the global payment number is 10 quadrillion: http://monetas.net/products

10 quadrillion $ is a damn big number. And it makes sense to make future BTC price calculations based on it.

I disagree On
CC fees are lower ac compared to BTC
Hacking is not a problem with CC
you don't have to Fear Volatility [even the rate of fiat currency fluctuates every day not as much as btc.. but as the time passes by btc will stabilize ]

and at the end I disagree on
CC is so much easier, safer and also faster

 

Confirmed.

SSL as Secure Sockets Layer?

Anyway, I have always wondered where the word debit card comes from. I think it comes from DEBT. Credit cards are DEBT CARDS. Debt sucks. thus credit cards will die.

Until Bitcoin hits the point of simplicity that I have with a debit/credit card (literally a swipe and 5 second wait), its going to struggle to go mainstream. People are overestimating how easily they believe the general populace would adopt Bitcoin without things like this.

The general populance adopting bitcoin would mean prices above $1mil

Nobody believe bitcoin will go to $1mil tomorrow

Calm down bro 8)

I don't expect it to. I was simply making the point about how simplicity is a practical requirement for mass adoption.

I agree with that but i'm confident we will see it in the future

You will be getting google glass then? Nod twice and you just bought whatever you looked at.

What do you guys think of that google glass EAZE payment system?
Are you guys interested in buying and do you think consumers would buy (will it do well etc)?

I think you forgot to divide by the velocity of money.

Put another way, GDP is the value of goods and services sold in a year.  But the same coins might be used for more than one transaction in a year, so a 1.5 trillion USD contribution to GDP doesn't mean a bitcoin money suppy ('market cap') or 1.5 trillian dollars.  Some coins might be used in many transactions in the space of a year - hence requiring a significantly lower valuation to be able to account for all those transactions.  Of course, this is balanced by the fact that other coins won't be spent at all in any given year.

roy

Debit cards debit the balance of your checking account. Credit cards credit the balance of your debt.

I agree, debt is almost always a terrible idea, particularly credit card debt.

MORE:
only 25% in circulation
brick and mortar use

LESS:
too hard for mainstream
banned in some places
BTC velocity not taken into account

Because technology never evolves and people never adapt.  ::)

You assume that I'm unhappy with my current process, which I'm not. Unless there is a major upgrade to my current swipe process, I (or the average consumer) don't need to switch to something marginally simpler.

A simplified estimate for a $100,000 BTC
Even more simple:
Check back when the rally has started, and this thread will seem more realistic.  ;D

You said it needs to be as simple as plastic. Nodding is simpler than that. You mentioned nothing about happiness.

I don't understand your point. I said as simple as a debit/credit card process. You're implying I have to go simpler than that? It has to be a simplicity mass majority of users are comfortable with, was my point.