Bitcoin Forum

Which bubble are we going to have? What do you guys think?

there definitely will be a valuation bubble in 2014, because it can't go down much and it can't go sideways forever with all the new attention. any push to the upside would reignite the rally. either that, or bitcoin dies completely. pick whatever your intelligence allows you to pick.

well they have all been pretty super bubbles, if you look on the log scale.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.

I see a bubble in 2014 as the most probable option, too, but I wonder whether massive FUD attacks in the early stage of the bubble could choke off the rocket prematurely only to superskyrocket in 2015.


By superbubble I mean a 2011-like bubble.

EDIT: We better use the technical terms "super bubble" and "super duper bubble" in the bitcoin world ;)

we will see bubble in late 2014
like one year before in 2013 ;D

2011 bubble? how many percent increasing price of BTC?

2011 bubble? how many percent increasing price of BTC?
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https://i.imgur.com/ycT9ulP.png
I hijacked this image from rpietilas "Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend" thread. It was updated by minimalB. Thanks to both of them. The image nicely shows the extent of the 2011 bubble.

low 4-digit in 2014, like $2 000 or so, can't really be called a bubble.

5-digit in the second half of 2015, not high 5-digit number, but something on the order of $20 000-30 000.

https://i.imgur.com/IkoEj34.png

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

first bubble was actually about a 30x increase (from the consolidation levels of $1->31), while last year's run was a 5->250, a 50x increase, so that would qualify as the bigger bubble. The most recent one was weak, going only 12x from 100 to 1200, but it also had a very short consolidation period of several months only. I think this new one will possibly also have very short consolidation period and "low" fuel resulting in only 10-15x growth from the $400 base. But maybe it will be some completely new beast, thats the beauty of it - it runs differently every time, but never boring.

If you recall, the biggest runup from $5 to $250 was started with two large crashes on the way up, bigger one caused by piratefund I think, where the price lost 50% in one day but even that didn't stop the rally much, only postponed it by one month. When it runs, it ignores FUD.

It's definitively going to be a dinosaur! Dinosaur patterns are simply the best.

you know that all birds are direct descendants of dinosaurs? So yeah why not :)

Bubleeeeeeeeeeeees..... My bubles!

I voted for the first option but I wouldn't call that a bubble.

Bubbles, bubbles, so many bubbles.

http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/suds.jpg (http://s664.photobucket.com/user/JimboToronto/media/suds.jpg.html)

Next bubble is gonna feel so fucking unreal

Gonna feel nice to get the 7figgy

http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/bubbles.jpg (http://s664.photobucket.com/user/JimboToronto/media/bubbles.jpg.html)

Take a look at: http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php

This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing.  It looks like this correction might be turning around.

Expected price is 666 :(

Sorry i don t understand your drawing. Looks to me like random bulls run and random bubles. I agree that the 2011 buble was unique until today, but the crash that follow was just in relation with the size of the buble.

You can clarify your view by defining "bulls run" ans "buble"

To me, it all looks like bulls run in adoption. The better the run, the better the crash.

That's where it should be today if it followed a nice clean rise in value.  So currently BTC is undervalued, or not in a bubble.

The new Proof-of-Resource alts may eat into the BTC market cap if they deliver on what they promise. 2015 may be the year that bitcoin starts seeing real competition. The fact that big money is mostly investing in companies that support cryptos in general and not BTC in particular supports this theory.

We already had 3 bubbles:

y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)

(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0)

https://i.imgur.com/6s5k5XE.png

There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

??? What about channel and long term support line? This is exactly the same. Traders dont usually draw an average trendline because they look for entry and exit. But when you are in to hold, it makes sens. I don t understand why people can t understand his views. His realistics with his prediction, and one of a few who seems to know what he is doing... It s not because *100 look unrealistic that it is. Bitcoin has already proven that multiple times. In long term, it can only go 2 ways and he knows it very well.



That s really close with EW. I agree with you, except that you don t know if the current big wave up since 2011 is finished. We could really see a huge bubble this year or next year as the merchant adoption rate has been the highest seen until today. I have read that it is slower now, it is understanding with the current price trend.
Your chart is misleading because it is mtgox price ( for a long history i assume ) and the crash of 2014 is still a consolidation state. A persitant break of 400$ will tell otherwise.

edit: when i read your posts, i feel that you think to be a "real" trader. You must be more carefull when you state things. I m sure you don t believe to be so.

I'd suspect a move in the 400 dollar range is a good possibility.  not sure it is being called a bubble but I guess It has something to do with the volatility of the market.

A possible bubble depends upon developers ...

Side Chain; Broken BTC into ‘Bits’...

Wow.  This poll is very encouraging.  There is something to be said about the the truth behind the popular vote I believe. ;)

I'd actually prefer no bubble in 2014 & then a superbubble in 2015.  ;D But doubt very much that we'll see high 5 digits next year. In fact, we mightn't even see low 5 digits, we could be stuck at 4 digits or worse, though I hope I'm wrong.

there will eventually be a bubble history seems to repeat and bitcoin isnt any different. there has been 4 or 5 bubbles and now we r going horrizontal and soon vertical !

But do you think it'll happen in 2014 or 2015? and how high do you think we're going?  ;D

In percentage-wise the current downtrend is still not comparable to the 266->65 (4x), and not to mention the 32->2 (16x). With 2013 style we should see 1100/4=275. With 2011 style we should see 1100/16=69

Looking at this:  http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/volatilitytrackerdetail.php?ac=BTC  I think we're seeing the price volatility decrease slightly over time, so I would expect those large multipliers (4x and 16x) to become rarer and smaller.

Since bitcoin is more mature and less volatile now, the magnitude of movements are less.  However, this is more about time than it is about distance, and about what to expect out of the next bull runs. Distance and time need to match up we that we meet the 2011 trendline. Theoretically this could actually be accomplished simply by going sideways at 450 for a year.

Vote results:

"We will see a bubble in the high 4-digit range in 2014"  - 86 votes.

Seriously?

You guys are talking $8,000+ for "high 4 digit range".

You all really believe we're going to hit $8,000+ before December?

-B-

I think the longest +/-10% sideway in history is the $5 period from Mar-Jun 2012. Even if $450 is the new $5, I can't imagine we will stay around 400-500 for more than 6 months

I tend to agree with jl2012. Or more accurately, I believe a case can equally be made for 2 "bubble cycles" in which the last one consisted of two segments, or 3 cycles in which the 2nd and 3rd were separated only by an unusually brief correction. That view doesn't have to rely on any log trend line, but can e.g. be argued for by looking at volatility:

https://i.imgur.com/62n4Aoz.png

That is convincing thank you. Volatility means a lot in any market.

It means too, that if we have to see the minimum volatility between 2 bubbles, there will be a long time before the next rise. Volatility is still very high.

i think you guys are talking about the über bubble ...  ;)

No, look again... That graph is gox data, so the end of the last volatility spike is irrelevant. Last time I checked, weekly bbw was quite down again, so by volatility alone the December cycle could end already. But it's not a precise enough indicator to say when a correction is done, it can only tell that well after the fact.

Interesting how many people think we are going to see a +1000% before the end of the year, lets hope all the voters have some impressive fiat cannons!

Thanks i didn t see that it was gox data. Ok.
Though i wasn t saying that it s a good indicator to enter ;) but a good indicator to wait for an entry.

Any way, i did enter long ago, when we got under 400.

Maybe because the poll does not offer a 3-4k choice, so people go for high 4digits ;)

I wonder. I think there'll need to be some major developments to kick things upwards in an interstellar fashion. I'm guessing most here have spent as much as they're willing to for now.

If it's to be driven by the little guy then the common denomination of units needs to be changed. People here often seem to think this is irrelevant but the perception of whole units vs fractions is straightforward human psychology throughout history.

If the little guy is to be cast aside in favour of institutional madness then it'll be proper Western market infrastructure and some regulation cast in stone.

Almost every single bitcoin bubble and crash since inception has been because of some kind of screw-up or intentional manipulation at Mt. Gox. Even the 2013 run-up from Chinese adoption wouldn't have gone so high if it weren't for Mt. Gox stopping fiat transfers. Even now, the potential for 200K (or more) coins to come out of Mt. Gox wallets still hangs over the market.

for me:

bubbles: when something gets valued by speculation or other not sustaintable factor, like loans , so getting prices way above their intrinsic value, generating sooner or later a big correction that will generate cry, gloom, suicides, despair and maybe an economic crysis

crysis: market has real problems, therefore making the price to drop. For exemple: more famous exchange going to bankruptcy, China maybe banning btc in some way and makes btc less atrative for 1 billion ppl market, etc...


For me we have a crysis, not a bubble, what means we are not above the intrinsic btc value, and are not about to crash. I think btc is undervalued atm, but don't know when the Gox and eastern banning fears will let the price goes up again

Bei Blasenproblemen bitte fragen Sie ihren Urologen ;)

Here's the open secret about bitcoin: it's like one of those springy door jams. The further and longer you pull it back (like right now) the harder it will take off. When the market finally decides to let go, people's heads will be bouncing due to the shock of the recoil. The next bubble is going to be massive.