Bubble 2014? Superbubble 2015? No bubbles anymore?

[tuneman1980]

Take a look at: http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/priceforecaster.php

This shows the bubbles pretty well, and even better if you select LN pricing.  It looks like this correction might be turning around.

Expected price is 666

That's where it should be today if it followed a nice clean rise in value.  So currently BTC is undervalued, or not in a bubble.

[kooke]

The new Proof-of-Resource alts may eat into the BTC market cap if they deliver on what they promise. 2015 may be the year that bitcoin starts seeing real competition. The fact that big money is mostly investing in companies that support cryptos in general and not BTC in particular supports this theory.

[jl2012]

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

We already had 3 bubbles:

y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)

(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0)

[TERA]

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

We already had 3 bubbles:

y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)

(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0)

There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

[rudius]

There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.

What about channel and long term support line? This is exactly the same. Traders dont usually draw an average trendline because they look for entry and exit. But when you are in to hold, it makes sens. I don t understand why people can t understand his views. His realistics with his prediction, and one of a few who seems to know what he is doing... It s not because *100 look unrealistic that it is. Bitcoin has already proven that multiple times. In long term, it can only go 2 ways and he knows it very well.

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

That s really close with EW. I agree with you, except that you don t know if the current big wave up since 2011 is finished. We could really see a huge bubble this year or next year as the merchant adoption rate has been the highest seen until today. I have read that it is slower now, it is understanding with the current price trend.
Your chart is misleading because it is mtgox price ( for a long history i assume ) and the crash of 2014 is still a consolidation state. A persitant break of 400$ will tell otherwise.

edit: when i read your posts, i feel that you think to be a "real" trader. You must be more carefull when you state things. I m sure you don t believe to be so.

[counter]

I'd suspect a move in the 400 dollar range is a good possibility.  not sure it is being called a bubble but I guess It has something to do with the volatility of the market.

[knightcoin]

A possible bubble depends upon developers ...

Side Chain; Broken BTC into ‘Bits’...

[BitChick]

Wow.  This poll is very encouraging.  There is something to be said about the the truth behind the popular vote I believe.

[pinksheep]

I'd actually prefer no bubble in 2014 & then a superbubble in 2015.  But doubt very much that we'll see high 5 digits next year. In fact, we mightn't even see low 5 digits, we could be stuck at 4 digits or worse, though I hope I'm wrong.

[durrrr]

there will eventually be a bubble history seems to repeat and bitcoin isnt any different. there has been 4 or 5 bubbles and now we r going horrizontal and soon vertical !

[pinksheep]

there will eventually be a bubble history seems to repeat and bitcoin isnt any different. there has been 4 or 5 bubbles and now we r going horrizontal and soon vertical !

But do you think it'll happen in 2014 or 2015? and how high do you think we're going? 

[jl2012]

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

In percentage-wise the current downtrend is still not comparable to the 266->65 (4x), and not to mention the 32->2 (16x). With 2013 style we should see 1100/4=275. With 2011 style we should see 1100/16=69

[tuneman1980]

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

In percentage-wise the current downtrend is still not comparable to the 266->65 (4x), and not to mention the 32->2 (16x). With 2013 style we should see 1100/4=275. With 2011 style we should see 1100/16=69

Looking at this:  http://www.cryptocoinstats.com/volatilitytrackerdetail.php?ac=BTC  I think we're seeing the price volatility decrease slightly over time, so I would expect those large multipliers (4x and 16x) to become rarer and smaller.

[TERA]

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

In percentage-wise the current downtrend is still not comparable to the 266->65 (4x), and not to mention the 32->2 (16x). With 2013 style we should see 1100/4=275. With 2011 style we should see 1100/16=69

Since bitcoin is more mature and less volatile now, the magnitude of movements are less.  However, this is more about time than it is about distance, and about what to expect out of the next bull runs. Distance and time need to match up we that we meet the 2011 trendline. Theoretically this could actually be accomplished simply by going sideways at 450 for a year.

[BittBurger]

Vote results:

"We will see a bubble in the high 4-digit range in 2014"  - 86 votes.

Seriously?

You guys are talking $8,000+ for "high 4 digit range".

You all really believe we're going to hit $8,000+ before December?

-B-

[jl2012]

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

In percentage-wise the current downtrend is still not comparable to the 266->65 (4x), and not to mention the 32->2 (16x). With 2013 style we should see 1100/4=275. With 2011 style we should see 1100/16=69

Since bitcoin is more mature and less volatile now, the magnitude of movements are less.  However, this is more about time than it is about distance, and about what to expect out of the next bull runs. Distance and time need to match up we that we meet the 2011 trendline. Theoretically this could actually be accomplished simply by going sideways at 450 for a year.

I think the longest +/-10% sideway in history is the $5 period from Mar-Jun 2012. Even if $450 is the new $5, I can't imagine we will stay around 400-500 for more than 6 months

[oda.krell]

[pic]

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

We already had 3 bubbles:

y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)

(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0)

[pic]

There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

I tend to agree with jl2012. Or more accurately, I believe a case can equally be made for 2 "bubble cycles" in which the last one consisted of two segments, or 3 cycles in which the 2nd and 3rd were separated only by an unusually brief correction. That view doesn't have to rely on any log trend line, but can e.g. be argued for by looking at volatility:

[rudius]

[pic]

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

We already had 3 bubbles:

y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)

(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0)

[pic]

There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

I tend to agree with jl2012. Or more accurately, I believe a case can equally be made for 2 "bubble cycles" in which the last one consisted of two segments, or 3 cycles in which the 2nd and 3rd were separated only by an unusually brief correction. That view doesn't have to rely on any log trend line, but can e.g. be argued for by looking at volatility:

That is convincing thank you. Volatility means a lot in any market.

It means too, that if we have to see the minimum volatility between 2 bubbles, there will be a long time before the next rise. Volatility is still very high.

[600watt]

there definitely will be a valuation bubble in 2014, because it can't go down much and it can't go sideways forever with all the new attention. any push to the upside would reignite the rally. either that, or bitcoin dies completely. pick whatever your intelligence allows you to pick.

I see a bubble in 2014 as the most probable option, too, but I wonder whether massive FUD attacks in the early stage of the bubble could choke off the rocket prematurely only to superskyrocket in 2015.

well they have all been pretty super bubbles, if you look on the log scale.
The chart is showing strong signs of reversal lately. I think we will test highs before july. cant say we will break them, but I am quietly confident.

By superbubble I mean a 2011-like bubble.

EDIT: We better use the technical terms "super bubble" and "super duper bubble" in the bitcoin world

i think you guys are talking about the über bubble ... 

[oda.krell]

[pic]

There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin.  Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.

We already had 3 bubbles:

y-axis is ln(price/exponential trend)

(see my thread for details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.0)

[pic]

There's are sure a lot of conclusions on this forum and a whole branch of 'bitcoiner trader science' based on a perceived and assumed 'trendline', which in reality is all based on guesswork and a misapplication of this one straight line of an average of the past, or some formula that risto the $1,000,000-per-coin bull wrote. I don't base any of my TA on this 'trendline', it is not something that any real traders acknowledge anywhere outside of this forum.

Anyway, my drawing is based on a series of minor waves within 2 larger waves. A large wave (or 'bubble') is a collection of smaller waves. A small wave is defined as one that only has a 1-3 month consolidation after it and does not enter into a downtrend on the 1-week chart, and has the next small wave within the same large wave leading to an even higher high.  A large wave is defined as one that has a 4-6+ month downtrend on the weekly chart and probably has the next bull right not leading to a higher high than its last bull run. This weekly-chart-type downtrend has only happened twice in bitcoin, 2011 and now.

I tend to agree with jl2012. Or more accurately, I believe a case can equally be made for 2 "bubble cycles" in which the last one consisted of two segments, or 3 cycles in which the 2nd and 3rd were separated only by an unusually brief correction. That view doesn't have to rely on any log trend line, but can e.g. be argued for by looking at volatility:

That is convincing thank you. Volatility means a lot in any market.

It means too, that if we have to see the minimum volatility between 2 bubbles, there will be a long time before the next rise. Volatility is still very high.

No, look again... That graph is gox data, so the end of the last volatility spike is irrelevant. Last time I checked, weekly bbw was quite down again, so by volatility alone the December cycle could end already. But it's not a precise enough indicator to say when a correction is done, it can only tell that well after the fact.