Bitcoin Forum

Ok, so if the winky face didn't give it away... I haven't really given up... but hey, maybe it got you here.

Here is what I have done:

• Bought ~8 coins in the last few months, average cost of ~$570.
  
  
• I've now sold those at ~$430. So yes, I have cemented about a $1100 loss.

Here is what I will do:

• If it goes to $500, I will buy back my 8 coins.
  
  
• I will buy back in at $300 +/- $50; the goal being roughly 12 coins.

Cementing the loss sucks, sure, but I have a hard time believing this is going anywhere but down short term. Also, if it is not obvious by my average cost, I bought all these coins before the last dip to $340 and am currently at/over what I feel comfortable losing. Therefore, the common advice (at least given out on this forum) of "holding and buying more as we go down" is not an option for me.


More background, since this is my first post:

I am NOT a trader/investor at all. I have been trying to master the finance language the last few months, but I'm really just a mech. engineer who likes technology. I've lurked on here since February and have read everything on Bitcoin that I could find. I think Bitcoin (the technology) can be revolutionary (i.e. change the world). I think Bitcoin (the currency) can be a good investment (i.e. increase my wealth). That being said, I don't see the pointing in holding just for the sake of holding. The only other time I have invested it something similar to this, such as stocks, is when I bought Tesla stock when it first became public. I bought it for the same reasons I am buying (had bought) Bitcoin. However, at the time, I was a broke grad student and only managed to purchase a few shares.



My "TA" (in this case TA = trend analysis):

http://s29.postimg.org/ys1otdrw7/btctrend5514.png

Nothing new here, it just seems obvious to me that we are heading for another dip. The "dips" are decreasing in size/length, but a dip nonetheless seems destined.

CCMF TDM here too :D

Good plan. Ignore the cultists.

Edit: Your target price is probably too low. Stagger bets from 340-370, save a little fiat if it goes lower.

Yep. Question is that with Bitstamp hitting $340 on not terribly high volume, thus breaking the $380-$400 support of the 4 month bearish descending triangle, does $340 prove to be thee bottom or will this level also be taken out?

I expect a lot of buying pressure from 'bottom catchers' as we approach this level again but believe that it will ultimately fall.

You should google for DanV. He is an EW analyst and has been calling the long-term Bitcoin trends like a dream in the face of all the other bullshit projections which have been proven wrong.

Here is a link to a 'session' he held on TradingView:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8Zuj8xYUpY&list=WLtnzQlSSqfa2NVFIZRwtDOw&index=46

3 hours long and rambling a bit in places, but compulsory viewing for anyone interested in Bitcoin speculation. The man really is excellent and I wouldn't say that about anyone else.

Maybe it will work for you, but be wary of TA based on repetition of history. One thing bitcoin has always did the past 4 years is - surprised me when I was sure I knew where it will go short-term. If you think you know where it will be in a week/month, prepare to be surprised. But I see you have buyback plans for both scenarios, at least that would not send you panicking, so I suppose it's a risk worth taking. Good luck :)

PS Btw still holding that TSLA? That was a nice stock last year, enjoyed the rides, however sold recently as most other tech stocks. But that's a different story.

It's a matter of time. At 6 months everybody is ready for the next bubble. At 9 months everybody starts to question whether there is a next bubble. At 12 months everybody has given up hope of another bubble and the real crash happens here.

I would suggest you to be prepared to jump out again. The most important rule in speculation is: to have a plan (specially: to have a stop price where you should sell if things go wrong) and stick to it.
Most people lose money because they hate to accept a loss, so they keep the position on hope, converting a speculative short-term/median-term move on a long term negative bag-holding. Accepting losses is the test for any trader.
Or, at least, buy in increments, saving a few to real low values, just in case.

Just following the current trend. And trust me, even in the last few motnhs, I know all about being surprised by BTC. I feel like I have bought and sold at terrible times; even now I don't feel great about my decision. The sad thing is I am trying to tell myself I sold because the data/chart is starring me right in the face (is it as hard to ignore as it is for me as it is for everyone else?), but I could have very well have sold because I was tired of just holding.

Still holding the TSLA, though I really haven't paid it much attention. I understand the "fundamentals" (investing language?) of Tesla and the technology quite well. Maybe if my gmable in BTC pays off I will heavily long-term invest in TSLA. I see Tesla being around a long time (note, I am very heavily biased towards Tesla).


Either you or someone else brought up DanV in another thread. Still getting my head around EW though I haven't spent a lot time researching it. Three hours is just so damn long; not exactly something I can view at work and not something I particularity want to view at home. However, at some point, I am sure I will catch some of it.

I hope it goes down to at least $340 (weird typing this out since I have been "full" BTC for a while), but I am not certain of anything, just making a bet. I feel (highly scientific... I know...) that at this moment it is much more likely to hit $380 than $500.


Thanks for the tip. I will probably determine when I buy by the rate at which it is dropping. Since I am a rookie I only use Coinbase. It hasn't been a bad experience, and I think it helps me from trading all the time.


It took me an embarrassingly amount of time to determine what CCMF stood for when first arriving at this forum. My first thought was "cheap coins", which made perfect sense to me except that it was almost always said when the price was going up.

Bold:
I think this good advice. After the recent rise from $340 to over $540 I should have set up a plan, something like "If it drops back to the $460-480 range, the trend is not reversed and I should sell and wait for a lower entry point".  Perhaps I will set up a better plan than I have now. However, the probability (in my head) of the price going lower than $260 seems low.

Italics:
The worst (not really the worst...) part of selling at $430 is knowing that I wanted to sell earlier but didn't. Your sentence pretty much sums up me as "most people". Though I don't have a lot of coins (relative to most on this sub-forum) and that I haven't invested more than I can lose, sealing in a $1000+ loss was not fun. It certainty would have been easier to hold, but I'm hoping it will be more profitable to have sold.

The flip side of that is that I recently got slaughtered on a short trade where in contrast to my actions every single time previously that the trade has went against me, I decided to hold out for the opportunity to break even. I Shorted Bitcoin at $420 around a couple of weeks ago and instead 'taking the loss', I decided to be like 'most people' and and hold out on the trade knowing that 99% of all my losing trades could have been winners had I only held on. Eventually, my nerve broke and I came out trade at $512 taking a 60% hit on the total funds in that trading account. I even rationally calculated that this price point would have been a fantastic point to start slowly entering a short trade at but when the pressure is heavily on the psychological can of worms is opened and irrational behaviour rules the day.

Funnier still, is that we are right back down at my break even level. If only I could have been like 'most people' and refused to accept the loss, I wouldn't have lost thousands of pounds. Should also point out that Bitcoin did peak at some 35 cents above the price point which would have seen my whole position liquidated....had I not partially closed a portion of the position.

I knew pretty soon into this short trade that it was a bad un and that this was going to be my 'acid test' to see whether I had what it takes to trade cool n rationally. Of course, I never figured on exactly how bad it was going to get but the end result is that I failed, I took losses that I never had to take and had I just held out making a few minor adjustments to my position, then I would have realised none of the losses that I have and would now be in a position to go ahead and profit on that fkn agonising trade.

The conclusions that I have come to is to never again use leverage and to never short any asset ever. Shorting is counter intuitive and not good for someone who relies heavily on intuition.

Well, first you need to know what the term of your strategy is.

Are you short term?  Then you need to figure out (good luck) where the market is going in the next month.  This is sometimes easy, but not always.  But if you are truly short-term, then you are playing with fire because of bitcoin's legendary volatility.

Are you medium term?  Then you need to figure out where bitcoin is going in the next 6 months.  This is a bit easier, since it tends to go in 6 month cycles.  And it's pretty easy to tell if you are at the peak or in a valley.  Check out Risto's (rpietila) and SlipperySlope's posts to see where we are at.

Are you long term?  HOLD.  Bitcoin is most likely not going anywhere with half a billion dollars recently invested around it, tax laws being created around it, etc.  You should definitely wait at least for the halving in 2016 and the release of all the ETF funds like Winkelvoss.  It's hard to imagine that bitcoin won't be at least $10,000 after all that is done.

I have checked out Risto's and SlipperySlope's threads/analysis. Time will tell if they are right. I'd like to believe that their projections are correct, but in the short term it looks like the price is going down. Even Risto, in his periodic quick updates has accepted this; he went from reversal confirmed, to probably not quite yet confirmed, to not sure confirmed, to straight out stating (today) we are still in a downtrend. Based on his trendline we are at "historic" lows. And I see no sign that we'll be moving up any time soon.

Of course, on the flip side, if Risto (and I suppose yourself) are correct, then buying in at $300 or $500 makes very little difference. I've read the same articles as you have about all the infrastructure but it simply isn't reflected in the price (yet). I have a hard time envisioning 1 BTC equaling $10,000 in a year and a half. I'd like to get to the point where I can take my principal out but still maintain a decent position in BTC. So I am taking a gamble now to make/save a few bucks. If it pays off, I've increased my position in Bitcoin without risking more fiat (i.e. continuing to buy as it drops). If it doesn't pay off, Iv'e lost some fiat I have prepared to lose but will still be in the same BTC position. Basically, "I've made my move". Is it out of lack of patience? Naivety? Perhaps... perhaps not.

I'm probably a little more cultist than you (lol), but sounds like you've at least got a sound strategy to work with.  Your (relative) loss is not that great and if you live in the U.S. you can write down up to $3K loss/year on your taxes.

If and when you do decide to get back in to BTC, I would really sit down and think about your motivation to own some.  Do you believe in Bitcoin long term?  Or are you just looking to become wealthy overnight (< 6-12 months)?  Do you plan to use it as a currency, a store of value, or both?  What do you think or hope the Bitcoin market/ecosystem will look like in 5 years?  10 years?

Just because bitcoin reverses into an uptrend does not guarantee its demand curve, or even its long term success or survival.  You may take up a position during an uptrend and it may completely stagnate for 6-12 months... or even start another downtrend.  So there is no guarantee.  Therefore it really does go back to your belief in the fundamentals and long term potential of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin believers get a bad rap these days, but it's soooo easy to rail on the bulls and permabulls when in a downtrend.  What apparently seems to be lost on the bears/non-believers/idiot day traders is that the Bitcoin diehards are thinking on a timescale of 2-4 years out, not what is going to happen next week or next month or even in the next 4-6 months.  This long term position strategy has never failed the believers so far.  We believe there is way more upside than downside to holding BTC.

If you had bought Amazon in mid-January you'd be sitting on a 25% loss right now. If you had bought Facebook in early March you'd be sitting on a 16% loss right now.  Bought 3D Systems in early January you'd be sitting on 50% loss right now.  Twitter, -50% since late December 2013.  Overvalued at those prices?  Sure, maybe.  But in 2-4 years, possibly a steal.  No one can predict for sure, so only time will tell.

I would start cultivating a long term thinking of Holding as an investment strategy.  Once in an interview, Warren Buffett was asked to respond with the first thing that popped into his mind.  When the interviewer said "Buy", without hesitation the first thing that Warren Buffett blurted out was "HOLD!"   ;D

Op don't be too hard on your self. All traders breach that important rule of having at least a mental stop loss and many times they don't stick to it, me included.
If you are surfing the trend, you can risk and keep your position hoping to return to profit as soon as the median-term trend imposes it self: if you are on a bear market and you have a short position (you sold bitcoins you borrowed or opened a position on a put: google it if necessary) and you go negative because of an increase of price, you can keep the position or even increase it (that is the last thing to do: you were wrong once, you can be wrong more) to try to return to profit as soon as the price goes down according to the bearish trend. But that is indeed very risky and can end bad. The spike of 11-16 April (of bad memory to me also) is a good example.
The big money is earned when you leave the position open for weeks surfing the trend with all your speculative capital, not the small day trades. But that demands a bull trend. I never go to sleep relaxed with a major short position open on bitcoin, some bulls are crazy. Some of them have lost millions trying to push bitcoin up. Therefore, we have to wait for another bull trend to earn big or, at least, for fast moves on a clear direction.

Believe me, it's a much better feeling to be defeated by the market for 10BTC then beeing scammed by some shitbag here for the same amount. So just take it easy and don't gamble too much.

Everytime the people thinks bitcoin is dead or there is that feeling, is when bitcoins starts to skyrocket

we need more "giveupers", more "blood on the streets" before it starts happening. More bitcoins at dirt-cheap prices are flowing into VC's hands, more brighter is the future.

Great plan ...lock in your loss

And then miss the movement ....you have now created an extremely high risk strategy ...if the market zigs instead of your hoped for zag you will cop it ..

I have tried this in the past and have eaten crow on occasion  :(

The market is a harsh mistress and loves smashing "SMART" people into the ground.....lolz

Good luck with that :D

^

You have to be a certain height to ride the Bitcoin Roller Coaster...

See all the kids who fell off the ride? Yeah, that's right, grown-ups only.

LOL How true. Some of the more butthurt are still picking shards of gravel out of their rear ends.

Don't be fooled by the price movement.  Just hold ... if you think about 1 year later... its a clear answer crypto is going to go forward.

The Bitcoin world needs suckers like you. This is a zero-sum game; for every winner, there is a loser.

And I'm sure you were just born as the world's greatest investor...  ::)

I'll assume you're speaking towards me. Not sure if you're insinuating I'm "SMART"? I never said I was smart, quite the contrary, I'm probably pretty dumb when it comes to investing/trading. And yes, what I did appears risky, but it doesn't seem that risky to me. You may have also missed the point where I plan to buy back in if it goes back up instead of down.


I'll keep this mind, thanks. After the market moves (either to ~$500 or ~$300) I think I will be done for a while. The last few months have been fun and interesting, but very time consuming and even stressful at times.

I meant what i said ...Einstien may have been a terrible trader ...its more about control and paitience than anything else

I think your strategy is high risk and it would have been better to sit on your coinz ..now you are sitting and waiting with your heart pounding in your temple ...to be honest there is no right or wrong and only HIGH-MED-LOW  risk strategys (BTW crypto @ this satge of its development is never low risk )

To your credit you took the loss..good luck with what ever eventuates

Beware of the Bitcoin Nutters on this forum Bazil!!!

They will do nothing but fuck you up!

I remember back around the time when I first came to Bitcoin (also my first real attempts at trading). On the eve of the Dec 17th, I had sold my Bitcoins and had buy-ins at ~$450. Not only was I "a fool for selling" but my "$400 range buy-ins would never happen". "Hell", I was told, "there are so many people queuing up to buy-in the $500-$600 range that Bitcoin was just never going to get close to there". I of course argued my case but doubt creeped in and I raised my buy-in tranches up $100. Bitcoin fell to $380, and due to my naivety in trading I panic sold at $500 taking a large loss (I had large amount of funds in Bitcoin back then).

Beware of the Bitcoin Nutter! He will offer you some of his Kool-Aid! He will demand you drink his Kool-Aid! Whatever you do, don't drink Bitcoin Nutter's Kool Aid!


Ahem....


Here is another DanV YouTube video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cwlt-ICoC8

It is 2 hours long. I have just started watching it and am 40 minutes in. Excellent stuff. This is exactly the sort of thing I wished that I had watched back way back when I first came to Bitcoin. If you are going to invest in Bitcoin, this is well worth a couple of hours of your time.

Nigga please ...Look in the mirror for fuck sakes

Your so called sub 300 has not happended so @ this point in  time if anything you are the nutter and I am reality ..

The OP HAS taken a high risk strategy... time,patience & resolve is what is needed for profit ...being right or wrong is not the key point in this game

true dat. this, is right now... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeuRAWSJGFY

(I am that bitcoin nutter in the chair)

I love seeing bitcoin on the way down, and it is not near the bottom yet.
Merchants are finally realizing the hype is over and they are not having a advantage when using bitcoin, so this disappointment causes the price to drop.
As a merchant you can accept bitcoin but you have to go through the trouble of exchanging it, withdrawing etc.


You have to ask yourself, what gives bitcoin value.
I believe it is the distributed bitcoin network, the blockchain technology and the great bitcoin community.
But do they really need a bitcoin worth 500$? Not if you use it as intermediate medium of transferring money, as most merchants do.
They don't care about the price and volatility because they don't hold bitcoin for long periods.

That means that the price can be any arbitrary non zero (positive) value.
Bitcoin can still function if it were just 1 penny.

So in that scenario if Overstock sells 20% more sheets than they expected that day the entire bitcoin market would be swallowed whole.

And if they needed to increase the number of coins to cover that extra sheet sale they could do a 51% attack with their old Atari 2600 lying around in the office.

There is a reason why a certain valuation provides utility.

^^^

Has no bitcoin & wishes they where 1 penny ...:D

Ah, I get what you mean now.
Suppose bitcoin is at a very low value, then the total value of all bitcoins is not high enough for the bitcoin spenders/buyers to use it.
suppose a hundred people want to buy a new phone but the total value of bitcoin is only worth one phone, they cannot buy it with bitcoin all at the same time.
They could however buy it sequentially if the value is larger or equal to the value of one phone.
So if the bitcoin market grows, its value has to grow with it to support the market.

Let bitcoin go mainstream!

You know, this bear market will not be forever. If you don't need the $$$ right now why sell ?

Do you think that keeping them($$$) in the bank would give you a higher profit than BTC over a year period?

Better a Bitcoin enthusiast than a nutbar Technical Analysis cultist.

 :) ;) :D :D ;D ::)

Lol! This made me laugh, just the way you said what you said.

Why do you consider it "high" risk? Do you think $430 is/was the bottom?

This is a very good question and one I struggle with. And my answer right now is "I'm not sure". I could see BTC at $200-$300 more easily than $2000-$3000... am I crazy for thinking this...?

Most people around here are high stakes gambler types, and have the stomach for such a scenario. Of course we could fall to $200-$300 range and hang there for awhile, but the consensus around here is bullish long term, so most of us don't get too worked up over it.

Go and learn some TA and you will know that $430 is very likely not the bottom for this wave down. All the commonly used indicators are spelling bad news ahead for Bitcoin long positions.

Go do some Trend Based Fib Retracements on the previous few drops ($1150 to $380; $995 to $400; $710 - $340) from top, to bottom, and back up the upper reach of the bounce. Notice how the following drop stopped at around 76% ($400), notice how the next drop stopped around 62% ($340). Now go and do a Trend Based Fib Retracement on the current down wave, from the bottom at $340, to the top at $548, and see where the 50% retracement line lands.......$360?

76% - 62% - 50%  etc (being the fib retracement targets).

I would suggest that there will be a retest of $360 and probably a strong bounce around that price point, but that is not to say that $360 will be the final low, but certainly a target for a possible good short term long opportunity.

P.S. I could show you a chart of what I mean but it just looks like a bit of a fkn mess.

Funny thing is that you are not the only one looking at this move at the moment ...here is a post from another thread that outlines it

Also yes 415 support point has been tested again & again & i think the CHina FUD has run its course

So here is a hypothetical.....

<High risk ...and a real novice move >

What happens if you have a buy in @ 330 and it only hits 331 (this has happned to me on many occasions and to make a point I  missed getting filled  one time by 0.4 cents Sad )

SO now where are you ...locked in 12 k loss and by the time you scramble to figure out what is going on and IF (big IF ) you are awake or at a terminal when all of this happens you can get a new market order on

1) Locked in 12k loss
2) Misssed getting filled
3) Missed the movement
= HIGH Risk

I think you have a 1 in 3 of this working for you ...On the trade you are talking about it could easily end up costing you 20-25k

The market loves smashing people into the ground

</High risk ...and a real novice move >

HODL....especially as you have gone through what I see as the worst of the volatility ..but hey to be honest I dont really give a flying fruit cake

I may be wrong or I may be right or neither but essentially that does not matter as the market can & will do anything ..everything is a calculation of risk

WHat is your risk appetite ?

This has been discussed AD-NAUSEUM that crypto does not do TA very well because of a laundry list of reasons

You are living in a fools paradise if u are basing your crypto trading on TA IMHO

EDIT: I meant to say ONLY on TA

Oh really!?

 ::)

OMG!
The scary chart says we might go down $50 or $100 before the next Huge Rally, and...
You consider 100% short to be the best move?
Then you open a thread to help sell others on the same bad idea?  :D

Best move? I don't know, but obviously I'm hoping so.

I decided to open the thread after because I did not feel 100% about it. So far, reactions seem to be mixed. And I feel about the same about as I did when I started the thread. The small bump to $445 makes me feel 1) maybe I should have waited a little bit to sell and 2) maybe I should not have sold at all; these cancel each other out in my mind.

Trading isn't easy, don't give up.
Also, it could easily bounce back down to $400 by tomorrow:
No one knows for certain how soon BTC hits $1500, $2,500 & $3,500

You are going to be sorry ..too many factors for there to be a high % of this working for u  8)

In most cases the market will do EXACTLY the oppiste of what your emotional response is

i.e you want down it will go up :D

You need to live in bizaro world or to look at yourself as George Costanza i.e everything you do is wrong & do teh opposite is the secret to your success

Its called the Seinfield trading pattern

But I've wanted it to go up for months and all it went was down  :-\  It is weird to be in the reverse position.

Lol at your "Seinfeld trading pattern", good stuff.

One of the best lessons that I've learned trading Bitcoin is never go full fiat. You can go 50%, 65%, 80%, but just don't go full fiat. The reason is simple: considering that 99% of the people here (and especially the stupid trolls) are actually medium/long term bulls that know bitcoin is currently undervalued, the pain of completely missing out on a rally is by far worse than seeing your "USD net worth" significantly decrease. I sure hope you've invested only what you can afford to lose.

I'll give you my example: I've bought all in, in december at average price of 585, and then proceeded to sell everything at 670. Even though the price was going up I knew (100% sure even though everyone was posting trains, rockets, boats, astronauts and what not) that the correction couldn't be over so soon. So I waited, and waited… and waited, and waited. Until one day I just couldn't watch bitcoin go up anymore with me being all out. So I bought, and luckily, knowing it would go down, I did so only with a fraction of my funds. It's easy to see that I bought at 985, literally moments before it completely reversed. Moments, not even minutes, fully aware of what was going on. But once I did buy, I felt relieved and after that I managed to continue trading considerably more efficiently, lowering my buy-in average considerably below my initial one.

TL DR: the current prices are just too good not to make a long-term investment, be it even 10% of your funds. Don't trade with everything, you might win, but it could drive you crazy as well. Hedge. Respect the stop loss.

You are strange person. You bought at 985, knowing it would go down? You have since been investing in a steadily declining market, apparently with relentless glee? Do you actually like losing money?

I knew it would go down, I didn't know it would go down exactly then. In retrospect, I realize it was actually quite obvious - the fear of losing "the moon" was simply too great, so I "panic" bought. Lesson learned, when this kind of panic hits, you MUST do the opposite of what you feel.

And yes. I don't mind losing money if I learn something valuable that will help me earn many times more in the future. And I would definitely rather lose money over losing bitcoin.

I agree on always doing the opposite of the panic/greed signal that you feel  ;)

Kram, do not worry.  If I went outside and started asking people what they thought about bitcoin, they would probably ask me what the hell I was talking about.  Atleast you understand what it is and have gotten in at a price where many others have (even though its close to ATH).

If you do not mind buying when you did, it means you were comfortable and just wanted to get it over.  No one could have predicted the crazy FUD that kept us there for months (and might or might not still be going on)

It is very hard to take seriously analyses in such way. Bitcoin is completely different kind of idea. There were never even similar things like this one.

Based on different and modern way of supply of bitcoin we have to take into account completely different kind of dealing with trading.

I watched in awe back in early November as the price went from $200 to $400 in what seemed like a week.  Then it just kept climbing.  At that time I remember thinking, "Never again will I be sitting in full fiat before a run up.  I'd rather be sleeping in coins that I might have overpaid a little for, than miss the next rally (and the next, and the next, etc)."

You never know what is going to happen in this market, and it is still absolutely miniscule in size.  So much runway left over the next 5-8 years it's ridiculous.  The bitcoin "craze" that will sweep the world could still be years away.

This is more my sentiment. I don't think we will go up until there is truly capitulation of all the weak handed large investors from the Nov-Dec run.

Yeah, ur right. And everyone knows this and acts accordingly, thus nulling the Costanza factor :)

I think it's pointless basing anything on past performance. If Bitcoin was 200 years old then there'd be some precedents to count on.

There are far too many developments, both good and bad, to have the slightest clue where it'll be this November.

FTFY

Bitcoin apparently rewards the most patient of all, and punishes the least.

I first bought at $14 after the peak and mtgox fiasco, and sat with 85% loss for a little over a year while it went down to $2. You know, it was worth it :) Even though I lost hope at one point - at $2 - and that's when it started growing back :)

+1

http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-price-decline-targets-below-400-usd-bitcoin-analysis/2014/05/05

You need not feel sorry for me, my average buy-in price is much, much lower than my first buy-in price, and I am very comfortable right now. I would be, even at 100. Actually, at 100 I would probably get loans to invest 10 times my initial investment.

When price drops to 100, you'll be scared to death, it's OK to talk big right now  ;D

Totally depends on the mind set of the individual and the circumstances of how the price got to $100. That is why I have been insanely diligent in learning about all the angles of bitcoin, technical, fundamental, emotion, capitalistic, etc. etc.

So that I can make "non-emotional" decisions at the right (or close to the right) time.

Never sold my cold storage at BTC peak of $1000+, spent more fiat after silk roads seizure and have mainly been in profit and never really lost much so it may be easier for me to be optimistic.


Bitcoin is built for strong hands, get a pair or get out and go with safer ways of making money. After all this isn't just about pure profit.


I believe in bitcoin and what it does/stands for, but I want to make money off of it of course but you have to be strong. You have to use btc as well, I have about 80% in cold storage, 20% for investing, buying things, selling. For mass adoption we actually have to use Bitcoin not just save it hoping some sort of human global event causes price increase.

...yawn

Technical analysis is crap. Throw some tea leaves on the floor and read them if you want insight, it's likely to be just as accurate.

Bitcoin would do well to dump a whole lot of speculators with 10 second attention spans, particularly if coins land in the hands of actual believers in crypto currencies.

LOL.

Depends on who is doing the TA, and how good they are with it, doesn't it?

n00b.

This is a touchy area - the analysis could be done perfectly and then something like 'CHINA' could come along and fuck everything up in the space of an hour.

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D of course it'll happen again  :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D

Go and check out the works of DanV: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w)

He is a self-professed ignorer of fundamentals yet has played a blinder during these last few months laden with fundamentals minefields.

and also, good TA is not so much about 'predicting' the future price but choosing an opportune point to enter the market.

Had I discovered and more importantly, paid attention to DanV's analysis sooner, I would be considerably richer today and wouldn't have burned the thousands that I have burned with absolutely stupid impulse driven trading decisions.....yet I s'pose I had to make all those mistakes to learn to strongly identify what constitutes a sh1te trading decision, and what doesn't.

No it does not, because you're likely to get several different responses from the same chart. None of which will properly account for human psychology or news.


Not even a little. When I was young(and dumb) I *DID* believe that TA could predict with some measure of accuracy. It's hogwash...and btw so is the easter bunny.

Follow most of the TA posted on here and it's hogwash. Start trying to apply TA 101A principles without really knowing what you are doing and its hogwash. Go and find someone who has a talent for it and it is an indispensible tool that a trader would be crazy to trade without it. There are no guarantees and no sure fire way of accurately predicting the market, ever. There are however some very ingenious tried and tested methods of determining good market entry and exit points which greatly increase the probability of a trade turning out sweetly.

Don't listen to other people. Bitcoin is run a lot through human psychology, how can we decide when to sell when 20 people say different things.

I got in at about $20, then again at $50, then again big after the Silk Road one seizure. I have never sold more than 20% of my Bitcoins, I keep 80% in cold storage and I only plan on selling 50% at 3300 the other 50% I'll take 10% to use, sell, buy things, trade and that last 40% will either see the bottom and death of bitcoin or I'll sell most of them at 8000, leaving me enough that if it ever hits 20K a coin I will be able to use BTC to buy anything I want, as in my opinion for a 20K coin we would need semi-mass adoption, meaning most first world retailers would have to accept bitcoin as a form of payment.

With the way china, Russia and the U.S are going it wouldn't surprised if Russia do something stupid and bitcoin has a significant rise in a short period of time. That and if the winkle twins do get that ETF Bitcoin is going to see some strange movements. I think if we still have BTC in 2017, then Bitcoin will be a currency officially.

Technical analysis only works when people believe it and follow it. At most, there might be some basic psychological reactions that command some typical reactions, like when a active is oversold or overbought.

It appears the "trend" I pointed out in the OP has been broken. The price could still shoot downwards but if it does, it still wouldn't truly be following the previous dips. DanV has stuck with his predictions so far, but other traders on TradingView (Tim West, David Alcindor) seem to believe it is now more likely to go up than down. I suspect even DanV may adjust his previous predictions soon. Thoughts? Obviously I would be disappointed if it goes up before it does first, but I still feel alight about my decision and my plan. I may slightly adjust my plan and buy back in at $480 (as opposed to $500).

now, where is that dickhead (igorr?) with his "down to da tubes" charts?

https://i.imgur.com/sagDojm.png
Almost at high, sell now!