I've ALSO Given Up

[Bazil240]

Ok, so if the winky face didn't give it away... I haven't really given up... but hey, maybe it got you here.

Here is what I have done:

• Bought ~8 coins in the last few months, average cost of ~$570.
  
  
• I've now sold those at ~$430. So yes, I have cemented about a $1100 loss.

Here is what I will do:

• If it goes to $500, I will buy back my 8 coins.
  
  
• I will buy back in at $300 +/- $50; the goal being roughly 12 coins.

Cementing the loss sucks, sure, but I have a hard time believing this is going anywhere but down short term. Also, if it is not obvious by my average cost, I bought all these coins before the last dip to $340 and am currently at/over what I feel comfortable losing. Therefore, the common advice (at least given out on this forum) of "holding and buying more as we go down" is not an option for me.


More background, since this is my first post:

I am NOT a trader/investor at all. I have been trying to master the finance language the last few months, but I'm really just a mech. engineer who likes technology. I've lurked on here since February and have read everything on Bitcoin that I could find. I think Bitcoin (the technology) can be revolutionary (i.e. change the world). I think Bitcoin (the currency) can be a good investment (i.e. increase my wealth). That being said, I don't see the pointing in holding just for the sake of holding. The only other time I have invested it something similar to this, such as stocks, is when I bought Tesla stock when it first became public. I bought it for the same reasons I am buying (had bought) Bitcoin. However, at the time, I was a broke grad student and only managed to purchase a few shares.



My "TA" (in this case TA = trend analysis):

http://s29.postimg.org/ys1otdrw7/btctrend5514.png

Nothing new here, it just seems obvious to me that we are heading for another dip. The "dips" are decreasing in size/length, but a dip nonetheless seems destined.

[UnDerDoG81]

CCMF TDM here too

[TeeBone]

Good plan. Ignore the cultists.

Edit: Your target price is probably too low. Stagger bets from 340-370, save a little fiat if it goes lower.

[MatTheCat]

Nothing new here, it just seems obvious to me that we are heading for another dip. The "dips" are decreasing in size/length, but a dip nonetheless seems destined.

Yep. Question is that with Bitstamp hitting $340 on not terribly high volume, thus breaking the $380-$400 support of the 4 month bearish descending triangle, does $340 prove to be thee bottom or will this level also be taken out?

I expect a lot of buying pressure from 'bottom catchers' as we approach this level again but believe that it will ultimately fall.

You should google for DanV. He is an EW analyst and has been calling the long-term Bitcoin trends like a dream in the face of all the other bullshit projections which have been proven wrong.

Here is a link to a 'session' he held on TradingView:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8Zuj8xYUpY&list=WLtnzQlSSqfa2NVFIZRwtDOw&index=46

3 hours long and rambling a bit in places, but compulsory viewing for anyone interested in Bitcoin speculation. The man really is excellent and I wouldn't say that about anyone else.

[piramida]

Maybe it will work for you, but be wary of TA based on repetition of history. One thing bitcoin has always did the past 4 years is - surprised me when I was sure I knew where it will go short-term. If you think you know where it will be in a week/month, prepare to be surprised. But I see you have buyback plans for both scenarios, at least that would not send you panicking, so I suppose it's a risk worth taking. Good luck

PS Btw still holding that TSLA? That was a nice stock last year, enjoyed the rides, however sold recently as most other tech stocks. But that's a different story.

[btbrae]

It's a matter of time. At 6 months everybody is ready for the next bubble. At 9 months everybody starts to question whether there is a next bubble. At 12 months everybody has given up hope of another bubble and the real crash happens here.

[r34tr783tr78]

I would suggest you to be prepared to jump out again. The most important rule in speculation is: to have a plan (specially: to have a stop price where you should sell if things go wrong) and stick to it.
Most people lose money because they hate to accept a loss, so they keep the position on hope, converting a speculative short-term/median-term move on a long term negative bag-holding. Accepting losses is the test for any trader.
Or, at least, buy in increments, saving a few to real low values, just in case.

[Bazil240]

Maybe it will work for you, but be wary of TA based on repetition of history. One thing bitcoin has always did the past 4 years is - surprised me when I was sure I knew where it will go short-term. If you think you know where it will be in a week/month, prepare to be surprised. But I see you have buyback plans for both scenarios, at least that would not send you panicking, so I suppose it's a risk worth taking. Good luck

PS Btw still holding that TSLA? That was a nice stock last year, enjoyed the rides, however sold recently as most other tech stocks. But that's a different story.

Just following the current trend. And trust me, even in the last few motnhs, I know all about being surprised by BTC. I feel like I have bought and sold at terrible times; even now I don't feel great about my decision. The sad thing is I am trying to tell myself I sold because the data/chart is starring me right in the face (is it as hard to ignore as it is for me as it is for everyone else?), but I could have very well have sold because I was tired of just holding.

Still holding the TSLA, though I really haven't paid it much attention. I understand the "fundamentals" (investing language?) of Tesla and the technology quite well. Maybe if my gmable in BTC pays off I will heavily long-term invest in TSLA. I see Tesla being around a long time (note, I am very heavily biased towards Tesla).

Nothing new here, it just seems obvious to me that we are heading for another dip. The "dips" are decreasing in size/length, but a dip nonetheless seems destined.

Yep. Question is that with Bitstamp hitting $340 on not terribly high volume, thus breaking the $380-$400 support of the 4 month bearish descending triangle, does $340 prove to be thee bottom or will this level also be taken out?

I expect a lot of buying pressure from 'bottom catchers' as we approach this level again but believe that it will ultimately fall.

You should google for DanV. He is an EW analyst and has been calling the long-term Bitcoin trends like a dream in the face of all the other bullshit projections which have been proven wrong.

Here is a link to a 'session' he held on TradingView:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8Zuj8xYUpY&list=WLtnzQlSSqfa2NVFIZRwtDOw&index=46

3 hours long and rambling a bit in places, but compulsory viewing for anyone interested in Bitcoin speculation. The man really is excellent and I wouldn't say that about anyone else.

Either you or someone else brought up DanV in another thread. Still getting my head around EW though I haven't spent a lot time researching it. Three hours is just so damn long; not exactly something I can view at work and not something I particularity want to view at home. However, at some point, I am sure I will catch some of it.

I hope it goes down to at least $340 (weird typing this out since I have been "full" BTC for a while), but I am not certain of anything, just making a bet. I feel (highly scientific... I know...) that at this moment it is much more likely to hit $380 than $500.

Good plan. Ignore the cultists.

Edit: Your target price is probably too low. Stagger bets from 340-370, save a little fiat if it goes lower.

Thanks for the tip. I will probably determine when I buy by the rate at which it is dropping. Since I am a rookie I only use Coinbase. It hasn't been a bad experience, and I think it helps me from trading all the time.

CCMF TDM here too

It took me an embarrassingly amount of time to determine what CCMF stood for when first arriving at this forum. My first thought was "cheap coins", which made perfect sense to me except that it was almost always said when the price was going up.

[Bazil240]

I would suggest you to be prepared to jump out again. The most important rule in speculation is: to have a plan (specially: to have a stop price where you should sell if things go wrong) and stick to it.
Most people lose money because they hate to accept a loss, so they keep the position on hope, converting a speculative short-term/median-term move on a long term negative bag-holding. Accepting losses is the test for any trader.
Or, at least, buy in increments, saving a few to real low values, just in case.

Bold:
I think this good advice. After the recent rise from $340 to over $540 I should have set up a plan, something like "If it drops back to the $460-480 range, the trend is not reversed and I should sell and wait for a lower entry point".  Perhaps I will set up a better plan than I have now. However, the probability (in my head) of the price going lower than $260 seems low.

Italics:
The worst (not really the worst...) part of selling at $430 is knowing that I wanted to sell earlier but didn't. Your sentence pretty much sums up me as "most people". Though I don't have a lot of coins (relative to most on this sub-forum) and that I haven't invested more than I can lose, sealing in a $1000+ loss was not fun. It certainty would have been easier to hold, but I'm hoping it will be more profitable to have sold.

[MatTheCat]

I would suggest you to be prepared to jump out again. The most important rule in speculation is: to have a plan (specially: to have a stop price where you should sell if things go wrong) and stick to it.
Most people lose money because they hate to accept a loss, so they keep the position on hope, converting a speculative short-term/median-term move on a long term negative bag-holding. Accepting losses is the test for any trader.
Or, at least, buy in increments, saving a few to real low values, just in case.

Bold:
I think this good advice. After the recent rise from $340 to over $540 I should have set up a plan, something like "If it drops back to the $460-480 range, the trend is not reversed and I should sell and wait for a lower entry point".  Perhaps I will set up a better plan than I have now. However, the probability (in my head) of the price going lower than $260 seems low.

Italics:
The worst (not really the worst...) part of selling at $430 is knowing that I wanted to sell earlier but didn't. Your sentence pretty much sums up me as "most people". Though I don't have a lot of coins (relative to most on this sub-forum) and that I haven't invested more than I can lose, sealing in a $1000+ loss was not fun. It certainty would have been easier to hold, but I'm hoping it will be more profitable to have sold.

The flip side of that is that I recently got slaughtered on a short trade where in contrast to my actions every single time previously that the trade has went against me, I decided to hold out for the opportunity to break even. I Shorted Bitcoin at $420 around a couple of weeks ago and instead 'taking the loss', I decided to be like 'most people' and and hold out on the trade knowing that 99% of all my losing trades could have been winners had I only held on. Eventually, my nerve broke and I came out trade at $512 taking a 60% hit on the total funds in that trading account. I even rationally calculated that this price point would have been a fantastic point to start slowly entering a short trade at but when the pressure is heavily on the psychological can of worms is opened and irrational behaviour rules the day.

Funnier still, is that we are right back down at my break even level. If only I could have been like 'most people' and refused to accept the loss, I wouldn't have lost thousands of pounds. Should also point out that Bitcoin did peak at some 35 cents above the price point which would have seen my whole position liquidated....had I not partially closed a portion of the position.

I knew pretty soon into this short trade that it was a bad un and that this was going to be my 'acid test' to see whether I had what it takes to trade cool n rationally. Of course, I never figured on exactly how bad it was going to get but the end result is that I failed, I took losses that I never had to take and had I just held out making a few minor adjustments to my position, then I would have realised none of the losses that I have and would now be in a position to go ahead and profit on that fkn agonising trade.

The conclusions that I have come to is to never again use leverage and to never short any asset ever. Shorting is counter intuitive and not good for someone who relies heavily on intuition.

[BitchicksHusband]

Well, first you need to know what the term of your strategy is.

Are you short term?  Then you need to figure out (good luck) where the market is going in the next month.  This is sometimes easy, but not always.  But if you are truly short-term, then you are playing with fire because of bitcoin's legendary volatility.

Are you medium term?  Then you need to figure out where bitcoin is going in the next 6 months.  This is a bit easier, since it tends to go in 6 month cycles.  And it's pretty easy to tell if you are at the peak or in a valley.  Check out Risto's (rpietila) and SlipperySlope's posts to see where we are at.

Are you long term?  HOLD.  Bitcoin is most likely not going anywhere with half a billion dollars recently invested around it, tax laws being created around it, etc.  You should definitely wait at least for the halving in 2016 and the release of all the ETF funds like Winkelvoss.  It's hard to imagine that bitcoin won't be at least $10,000 after all that is done.

[Bazil240]

Well, first you need to know what the term of your strategy is.

Are you short term?  Then you need to figure out (good luck) where the market is going in the next month.  This is sometimes easy, but not always.  But if you are truly short-term, then you are playing with fire because of bitcoin's legendary volatility.

Are you medium term?  Then you need to figure out where bitcoin is going in the next 6 months.  This is a bit easier, since it tends to go in 6 month cycles.  And it's pretty easy to tell if you are at the peak or in a valley.  Check out Risto's (rpietila) and SlipperySlope's posts to see where we are at.

Are you long term?  HOLD.  Bitcoin is most likely not going anywhere with half a billion dollars recently invested around it, tax laws being created around it, etc.  You should definitely wait at least for the halving in 2016 and the release of all the ETF funds like Winkelvoss.  It's hard to imagine that bitcoin won't be at least $10,000 after all that is done.

I have checked out Risto's and SlipperySlope's threads/analysis. Time will tell if they are right. I'd like to believe that their projections are correct, but in the short term it looks like the price is going down. Even Risto, in his periodic quick updates has accepted this; he went from reversal confirmed, to probably not quite yet confirmed, to not sure confirmed, to straight out stating (today) we are still in a downtrend. Based on his trendline we are at "historic" lows. And I see no sign that we'll be moving up any time soon.

Of course, on the flip side, if Risto (and I suppose yourself) are correct, then buying in at $300 or $500 makes very little difference. I've read the same articles as you have about all the infrastructure but it simply isn't reflected in the price (yet). I have a hard time envisioning 1 BTC equaling $10,000 in a year and a half. I'd like to get to the point where I can take my principal out but still maintain a decent position in BTC. So I am taking a gamble now to make/save a few bucks. If it pays off, I've increased my position in Bitcoin without risking more fiat (i.e. continuing to buy as it drops). If it doesn't pay off, Iv'e lost some fiat I have prepared to lose but will still be in the same BTC position. Basically, "I've made my move". Is it out of lack of patience? Naivety? Perhaps... perhaps not.

[Torque]

I'm probably a little more cultist than you (lol), but sounds like you've at least got a sound strategy to work with.  Your (relative) loss is not that great and if you live in the U.S. you can write down up to $3K loss/year on your taxes.

If and when you do decide to get back in to BTC, I would really sit down and think about your motivation to own some.  Do you believe in Bitcoin long term?  Or are you just looking to become wealthy overnight (< 6-12 months)?  Do you plan to use it as a currency, a store of value, or both?  What do you think or hope the Bitcoin market/ecosystem will look like in 5 years?  10 years?

Just because bitcoin reverses into an uptrend does not guarantee its demand curve, or even its long term success or survival.  You may take up a position during an uptrend and it may completely stagnate for 6-12 months... or even start another downtrend.  So there is no guarantee.  Therefore it really does go back to your belief in the fundamentals and long term potential of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin believers get a bad rap these days, but it's soooo easy to rail on the bulls and permabulls when in a downtrend.  What apparently seems to be lost on the bears/non-believers/idiot day traders is that the Bitcoin diehards are thinking on a timescale of 2-4 years out, not what is going to happen next week or next month or even in the next 4-6 months.  This long term position strategy has never failed the believers so far.  We believe there is way more upside than downside to holding BTC.

If you had bought Amazon in mid-January you'd be sitting on a 25% loss right now. If you had bought Facebook in early March you'd be sitting on a 16% loss right now.  Bought 3D Systems in early January you'd be sitting on 50% loss right now.  Twitter, -50% since late December 2013.  Overvalued at those prices?  Sure, maybe.  But in 2-4 years, possibly a steal.  No one can predict for sure, so only time will tell.

I would start cultivating a long term thinking of Holding as an investment strategy.  Once in an interview, Warren Buffett was asked to respond with the first thing that popped into his mind.  When the interviewer said "Buy", without hesitation the first thing that Warren Buffett blurted out was "HOLD!"  

[r34tr783tr78]

Op don't be too hard on your self. All traders breach that important rule of having at least a mental stop loss and many times they don't stick to it, me included.
If you are surfing the trend, you can risk and keep your position hoping to return to profit as soon as the median-term trend imposes it self: if you are on a bear market and you have a short position (you sold bitcoins you borrowed or opened a position on a put: google it if necessary) and you go negative because of an increase of price, you can keep the position or even increase it (that is the last thing to do: you were wrong once, you can be wrong more) to try to return to profit as soon as the price goes down according to the bearish trend. But that is indeed very risky and can end bad. The spike of 11-16 April (of bad memory to me also) is a good example.
The big money is earned when you leave the position open for weeks surfing the trend with all your speculative capital, not the small day trades. But that demands a bull trend. I never go to sleep relaxed with a major short position open on bitcoin, some bulls are crazy. Some of them have lost millions trying to push bitcoin up. Therefore, we have to wait for another bull trend to earn big or, at least, for fast moves on a clear direction.

[dunchy]

Believe me, it's a much better feeling to be defeated by the market for 10BTC then beeing scammed by some shitbag here for the same amount. So just take it easy and don't gamble too much.

[johnmatrix]

Everytime the people thinks bitcoin is dead or there is that feeling, is when bitcoins starts to skyrocket

[designfail]

Everytime the people thinks bitcoin is dead or there is that feeling, is when bitcoins starts to skyrocket

we need more "giveupers", more "blood on the streets" before it starts happening. More bitcoins at dirt-cheap prices are flowing into VC's hands, more brighter is the future.

[YipYip]

Great plan ...lock in your loss

And then miss the movement ....you have now created an extremely high risk strategy ...if the market zigs instead of your hoped for zag you will cop it ..

I have tried this in the past and have eaten crow on occasion  

The market is a harsh mistress and loves smashing "SMART" people into the ground.....lolz

Good luck with that

[disclaimer201]

^

[kireinaha]

Great plan ...lock in your loss

And then miss the movement ....you have now created an extremely high risk strategy ...if the market zigs instead of your hoped for zag you will cop it ..

I have tried this in the past and have eaten crow on occasion  

The market is a harsh mistress and loves smashing "SMART" people into the ground.....lolz

Good luck with that