Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: P4man on January 17, 2012, 09:58:54 PM



Title: Here we go!
Post by: P4man on January 17, 2012, 09:58:54 PM
http://www.conservatismlives.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/jump_off_cliff.jpg


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: proudhon on January 17, 2012, 10:01:59 PM

Meh, I'm using it as another opportunity to increase my BTC position.  I sold everything recently and intend to buy back in hopefully in the $4 range, but I've got bids even lower than that.  Already there are enough asks below where I sold to increase my position by a good bit.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Technomage on January 17, 2012, 10:03:33 PM
To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: StewartJ on January 17, 2012, 10:04:06 PM
I love cheap bitcoins. Thank you for selling!


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: proudhon on January 17, 2012, 10:04:27 PM
To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.

I'm done with bitcoinica.  Back to good old fashioned MtGox trading for me.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: cloon on January 17, 2012, 10:07:41 PM
To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.

I'm done with bitcoinica.  Back to good old fashioned MtGox trading for me.
glad i never used it would suck if i couldn't buy right now^^


Meh, I'm using it as another opportunity to increase my BTC position.  I sold everything recently and intend to buy back in hopefully in the $4 range, but I've got bids even lower than that.  Already there are enough asks below where I sold to increase my position by a good bit.

 u know, that if your telling when you'll buy, i will buy cents higher...


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Serge on January 17, 2012, 10:07:49 PM
this could also be a trap setup to get lots of coins below 7-7.2 with quick sweep later on.  we have seen who ever put the asks wall had huge bids wall before too


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Bro on January 17, 2012, 10:11:05 PM
that shit is going down, son

protect the money!!


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: jojo69 on January 17, 2012, 10:12:40 PM
yep, I caught a couple little swings, but there is just too much explosive downside potential here

setting up short


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Vandroiy on January 17, 2012, 10:15:41 PM
To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.

You mean reasons other than a gazillion signs of being in an echo bubble?

Exponential trend-line, lots of price hype, excessive trading on margin, and any news were tied to speculation, not commerce or reasoning as to why the price would rally. They ran out of leverage for the long positions all the time, what the hell? And then everybody was talking about a TV show that perfectly justifies the new prices... oh, and of course an immediate impending rally to 8. And then 9. And single-digit prices suck anyway!

Remember we're still above a 200% rise from the low about two months ago!

People are overdoing it! The later they come to their senses, the harder the landing is. "Rise to the moon right now!" is not a good plan, and if it fails now that's still better than repeating the madness of last year and paying with another exodus in a multi-month bust. If it's not too late to prevent that already.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: byronbb on January 17, 2012, 10:16:37 PM
http://www.adoration.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Panic-button.jpg


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: byronbb on January 17, 2012, 10:17:45 PM
In all seriousness though 6.2 is an interesting level.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: arepo on January 17, 2012, 10:22:47 PM
To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.

You mean reasons other than a gazillion signs of being in an echo bubble?

Exponential trend-line, lots of price hype, excessive trading on margin, and any news were tied to speculation, not commerce or reasoning as to why the price would rally. They ran out of leverage for the long positions all the time, what the hell? And then everybody was talking about a TV show that perfectly justifies the new prices... oh, and of course an immediate impending rally to 8. And then 9. And single-digit prices suck anyway!

Remember we're still above a 200% rise from the low about two months ago!

People are overdoing it! The later they come to their senses, the harder the landing is. "Rise to the moon right now!" is not a good plan, and if it fails now that's still better than repeating the madness of last year and paying with another exodus in a multi-month bust. If it's not too late to prevent that already.

you are dumb

markets swing from overbought to oversold. the 200% increase could easily have been a correction from the HISTORIC, UNPRECEDENTED downward momentum of the falling-knife (panic-selling-induced) crash. perhaps this is a sign that the correction is over and $6-$7 is a 'healthy' price range for bitcoin. always think longer term.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: StewartJ on January 17, 2012, 10:23:04 PM
In all seriousness though 6.2 is an interesting level.

I am in, want to make some goodie profits on the way up to $7 again.

As per the last 3 times....


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: teflone on January 17, 2012, 10:24:38 PM
To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.

I'm done with bitcoinica.  Back to good old fashioned MtGox trading for me.

Smart! :)


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 17, 2012, 10:26:11 PM
holy shit...


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Technomage on January 17, 2012, 10:26:42 PM
You mean reasons other than a gazillion signs of being in an echo bubble?

Exponential trend-line, lots of price hype, excessive trading on margin, and any news were tied to speculation, not commerce or reasoning as to why the price would rally. They ran out of leverage for the long positions all the time, what the hell? And then everybody was talking about a TV show that perfectly justifies the new prices... oh, and of course an immediate impending rally to 8. And then 9. And single-digit prices suck anyway!

Remember we're still above a 200% rise from the low about two months ago!

People are overdoing it! The later they come to their senses, the harder the landing is. "Rise to the moon right now!" is not a good plan, and if it fails now that's still better than repeating the madness of last year and paying with another exodus in a multi-month bust. If it's not too late to prevent that already.
You do have a good point here. I've noticed that on average I had much lower expectations from the Good Wife episode than most people had. I was very surprised that it was so good. The boost we got from it was amazing, Google trends haven't spiked this high since June. And we have more money in the market than we have ever had since the summer as well. It's really NOT unreasonable to expect double digit prices soon.

What I miscalculated perhaps was how priced in the Good Wife episode was already. I didn't expect much from it but apparently many did. Or at least many thought that others do, so they speculated on it. Even with this realization I'm quite sure that what Bitcoinica is experiencing right now has a major effect on the market. That's undeniable. A good share of Mt. Gox volume comes from Bitcoinica so when it has problems, there is a strong effect on Mt. Gox.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: proudhon on January 17, 2012, 10:28:31 PM
Yikes.  Glad I got out of there.  And I think I might lower some of my bids...


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 17, 2012, 10:28:42 PM
Maybe a new, yet big player just wants cheap coins


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Serge on January 17, 2012, 10:28:47 PM
some one is getting all cheap coinz before rally kicks in , i think you guys had been had.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: byronbb on January 17, 2012, 10:29:16 PM
panic mode confirmed


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: teflone on January 17, 2012, 10:29:24 PM
You mean reasons other than a gazillion signs of being in an echo bubble?

Exponential trend-line, lots of price hype, excessive trading on margin, and any news were tied to speculation, not commerce or reasoning as to why the price would rally. They ran out of leverage for the long positions all the time, what the hell? And then everybody was talking about a TV show that perfectly justifies the new prices... oh, and of course an immediate impending rally to 8. And then 9. And single-digit prices suck anyway!

Remember we're still above a 200% rise from the low about two months ago!

People are overdoing it! The later they come to their senses, the harder the landing is. "Rise to the moon right now!" is not a good plan, and if it fails now that's still better than repeating the madness of last year and paying with another exodus in a multi-month bust. If it's not too late to prevent that already.
You do have a good point here. I've noticed that on average I had much lower expectations from the Good Wife episode than most people had. I was very surprised that it was so good. The boost we got from it was amazing, Google trends haven't spiked this high since June. And we have more money in the market than we have ever had since the summer as well. It's really NOT unreasonable to expect double digit prices soon.

What I miscalculated perhaps was how priced in the Good Wife episode was already. I didn't expect much from but apparently many did. Or at least thought that most do, so they speculated on it. Even with this realization I'm quite sure that what Bitcoinica is experiencing right now has a major effect on the market. That's undeniable. A good share of Mt. Gox volume comes from Bitcoinica so when it has problems, there is a strong effect on Mt. Gox.

Bingo...


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: proudhon on January 17, 2012, 10:30:05 PM
some one is getting all cheap coinz before rally kicks in , i think you guys had been had.

Maybe, but this isn't looking good.  I'm just happy to be in USD right now.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: proudhon on January 17, 2012, 10:31:03 PM
Also, what we're now seeing is because of bitcoinica.  Well done Z.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 17, 2012, 10:31:51 PM
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU... STOP IT YOU GUYS!!!  lolz


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: proudhon on January 17, 2012, 10:32:48 PM
So, um, I guess nobody wants these things anymore.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Serge on January 17, 2012, 10:33:18 PM
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU... STOP IT YOU GUYS!!!  lolz

we can't be lower than 6, there will be plenty of support to kick us back to 6-7 range, after they fill up their socks


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: RyNinDaCleM on January 17, 2012, 10:33:45 PM
I'm glad I sold @ $7.12. This is gonna fly down once liquidations get moving.

Effin Goxlive!  >:(


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Vandroiy on January 17, 2012, 10:33:51 PM
you are dumb

markets swing from overbought to oversold. the 200% increase could easily have been a correction from the HISTORIC, UNPRECEDENTED downward momentum of the falling-knife (panic-selling-induced) crash. perhaps this is a sign that the correction is over and $6-$7 is a 'healthy' price range for bitcoin. always think longer term.

I have difficulty answering a post that begins with a personal insult.

I'm using indicators to estimate absolute market liquidity and size/amount of speculators, but you know what, sharing thoughts on trading is overrated. Go figure it out yourself. Also makes it easier to just call me the 1:32+ Mat Cauthon for succeeding in five of five trend break predictions. Certainly, I am just dumb and it was all pure luck. Not that a random guess gets these right with a 50% chance by far, go read up on skew for that.

lol 5.4 limit. That most certainly was just chance, what an evil dumpster. Must have wizard-hatted these coins out of nowhere, eh? THE MANIPULATOR!


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Bro on January 17, 2012, 10:33:58 PM
that's awesome

love it


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: teflone on January 17, 2012, 10:34:19 PM
Also, what we're now seeing is because of bitcoinica.  Well done Z.

Once again, I will 100 percent agree with you.
:(


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Bro on January 17, 2012, 10:34:57 PM
haaaa, can't buy on gox, what's going on?


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: P4man on January 17, 2012, 10:35:22 PM
I started this thread when it was $6.5
31 minutes later its $4.8 and dropping like a rock.

Three cheers for self stabilizing unregulated markets  ;D


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Electricbees on January 17, 2012, 10:35:50 PM
It's the great crash of 2012...


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 17, 2012, 10:36:44 PM
Someone plz buy these cheap coinz now plz.  before i lose all my little amount of monies.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: jojo69 on January 17, 2012, 10:38:29 PM
wowwwwww


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Hawkix on January 17, 2012, 10:38:45 PM
60k BTC dump. Wow. Watched as the MtGox cannot sell fast enough. Fallen down slowly like through an oil.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: ineededausername on January 17, 2012, 10:40:20 PM
Wow...

Anyways, we've seen these crashes before, and we'll bounce back... eventually.  Who knows when.

Get ready for a bearish January!


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Crypt_Current on January 17, 2012, 10:40:45 PM
OMFG THIS IS THE MOST SCARED I HAVE EVER BEEN I WILL NEVER TRADE ON MARGIN AGAIN...


...
(lol)


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: StewartJ on January 17, 2012, 10:41:32 PM
It's the great crash of 2012...

Buying even cheaper bitcoins.  Hence the cost averaging.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Serge on January 17, 2012, 10:41:43 PM
lol, total blackout =)


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: notme on January 17, 2012, 10:43:03 PM
Also, what we're now seeing is because of bitcoinica.  Well done Z.

It was done on bitcoinica... Asterisk has swung to sell, so this drop was leveraged down.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: the joint on January 17, 2012, 10:44:21 PM
It's the great crash of 2012...

Heading for bread line now....

Are you alright?


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Electricbees on January 17, 2012, 10:44:47 PM
It's the great crash of 2012...

Heading for bread line now....
I hope there's enough for me when I get there...


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: jojo69 on January 17, 2012, 10:44:55 PM
going long


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: SkRRJyTC on January 17, 2012, 10:45:00 PM
Also, what we're now seeing is because of bitcoinica.  Well done Z.

It was done on bitcoinica... Asterisk has swung to sell, so this drop was leveraged down.

Someone with money saw that bitcoinica users were heavily leveraged long because of the two straight days of fucking * on the buy.  Squeezed the longs.  These things will happen in the wild west with tools that dont work.  Guaranteed Liquidity my ass!
SELL
▲*5.27678
BUY
▲*5.75655


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: StewartJ on January 17, 2012, 10:47:33 PM
It's the great crash of 2012...

Heading for bread line now....

Are you alright?

Yes, just having fun... love this crash. Shows the sheer precariousness of trading BTC.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: the joint on January 17, 2012, 10:48:36 PM
It's the great crash of 2012...

Heading for bread line now....

Are you alright?

Yes, just having fun... love this crash. Shows the sheer precariousness of trading BTC.

K just checking :)


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: P_Shep on January 17, 2012, 10:50:52 PM
Might go buy some bitcoins now... but it's bouncing back up :/


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: arepo on January 17, 2012, 10:54:17 PM
To me the one and only major reason this dip is happening is Bitcoinica and the problems it's having. Especially with the other developments recently, I see no other possible reason for this.

You mean reasons other than a gazillion signs of being in an echo bubble?

Exponential trend-line, lots of price hype, excessive trading on margin, and any news were tied to speculation, not commerce or reasoning as to why the price would rally. They ran out of leverage for the long positions all the time, what the hell? And then everybody was talking about a TV show that perfectly justifies the new prices... oh, and of course an immediate impending rally to 8. And then 9. And single-digit prices suck anyway!

Remember we're still above a 200% rise from the low about two months ago!

People are overdoing it! The later they come to their senses, the harder the landing is. "Rise to the moon right now!" is not a good plan, and if it fails now that's still better than repeating the madness of last year and paying with another exodus in a multi-month bust. If it's not too late to prevent that already.

you are dumb

markets swing from overbought to oversold. the 200% increase could easily have been a correction from the HISTORIC, UNPRECEDENTED downward momentum of the falling-knife (panic-selling-induced) crash. perhaps this is a sign that the correction is over and $6-$7 is a 'healthy' price range for bitcoin. always think longer term.

the fact that your prediction is right has nothing to do with whether or not the reasons you gave which i was rebutting are valid. also, unless you're already assuming that you are some super trader, each prediction is independent. as such, 'five in a row' means not much more than 'five, historically'. between the astrology thread and this kind of behavior, im starting to lose faith in the general rationality of traders...

so, congratulations, your prediction was correct. i also foresaw the danger and got out at $6.45.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: byronbb on January 17, 2012, 10:54:26 PM
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/2/5/saupload_dead_cat_bounce.jpg


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: jojo69 on January 17, 2012, 10:56:00 PM
if you want coins, they already cost 6.10 again


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Serge on January 17, 2012, 10:57:11 PM
if you want coins, they already cost 6.10 again

soon there will be no coins below $7


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: P_Shep on January 17, 2012, 10:58:12 PM
Damn it, back up to 6.30 already. Not gonna bother.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Clipse on January 17, 2012, 10:58:16 PM
erg this is like someone taking a dump on the market and never wipe there ass :/


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: SlaveInDebt on January 17, 2012, 11:00:13 PM
erg this is like someone taking a dump on the market and never wipe there ass :/

http://media.longnow.org/files/2/klingon.jpg


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: RandyMarsh on January 17, 2012, 11:05:08 PM
Meanwhile on mtgox... pending


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Hunterbunter on January 17, 2012, 11:12:40 PM
Looks like someone bought 50k coins a couple weeks ago, pushing the price up $1.50 through sheer volume, and today decided it wasn't going to make them super rich and withdrew all those coins (a few players, not just one).

Either that, or as someone else suggested manipulators are pushing other people out, leveraged, afraid, whatever. I think this may be the case as there hasn't been a flood of sell orders following it, so either a lot of people are waiting to see, or mtgox isn't working for anyone.


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: Serge on January 17, 2012, 11:18:14 PM
it's not over yet, i suspect there are more orders in mtgox's que still unprocessed


Title: Re: Here we go!
Post by: jojo69 on January 17, 2012, 11:28:03 PM
it's not over yet, i suspect there are more orders in mtgox's que still unprocessed

this