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Title: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: ineededausername on January 17, 2012, 10:42:30 PM Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: conspirosphere.tk on January 23, 2012, 01:51:41 PM Good find indeed
:) Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: kjj on January 23, 2012, 02:28:22 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known.
Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: Hawkix on January 23, 2012, 02:41:43 PM Note that PSAR is nothing magical. Most of time, it flips AFTER the change in sell/buy mood happens. At that time, it is obvious that rally/sellof started. But it looks nice when layed on historical data, though. ;-)
Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: cunicula on January 23, 2012, 02:48:49 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. +1; but something else to addRelationships between indicators break down once underlying market conditions which led to these relationships change. Conditions are constantly changing, particularly for something as inchoate as bitcoin. Since you have no idea why the indicators showed a relationship in the first place, you will have no idea when this relationship will break down, or what the new relationship will look like. Holy Grail is an appropriate metaphor as it draws an implicit analogy between what you are doing and a hopeless, futile pursuit. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: ineededausername on January 23, 2012, 02:50:54 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. Relationships between indicators break down once underlying market conditions which led to these relationships change. Conditions are constantly changing, particularly for something as inchoate as bitcoin. Since you have no idea why the indicators showed a relationship in the first place, you will have no idea when this relationship will break down, or what the new relationship will look like. Holy Grail is really an appropriate metaphor here as it draws the correct analogy between what you are doing here and a much more well-known example of a hopeless, futile pursuit. The purpose of this post was to point out an interesting correlation between an indicator and market activity over the last few months. "Holy Grail" was put there to draw people's attention, and nobody really believes that there is any "holy grail of indicators." Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: cunicula on January 23, 2012, 02:52:13 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. Relationships between indicators break down once underlying market conditions which led to these relationships change. Conditions are constantly changing, particularly for something as inchoate as bitcoin. Since you have no idea why the indicators showed a relationship in the first place, you will have no idea when this relationship will break down, or what the new relationship will look like. Holy Grail is really an appropriate metaphor here as it draws the correct analogy between what you are doing here and a much more well-known example of a hopeless, futile pursuit. The purpose of this post was to point out an interesting correlation between an indicator and market activity over the last few months. "Holy Grail" was put there to draw people's attention, and nobody really believes that there is any "holy grail of indicators." I would take issue with your claims that your post had a "purpose" or was "interesting." I'll let everything else stand, though. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: Dutch Merganser on January 23, 2012, 03:36:07 PM Note that PSAR is nothing magical. Most of time, it flips AFTER the change in sell/buy mood happens. At that time, it is obvious that rally/sellof started. But it looks nice when layed on historical data, though. ;-) Agreed, I always found PSAR to be good for confirming what had already happened too late to act on it ;) Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: ineededausername on January 23, 2012, 03:38:24 PM Note that PSAR is nothing magical. Most of time, it flips AFTER the change in sell/buy mood happens. At that time, it is obvious that rally/sellof started. But it looks nice when layed on historical data, though. ;-) Agreed, I always found PSAR to be good for confirming what had already happened too late to act on it ;) Technical analysis is the practice of following trends. If you want the PSAR or any other technical indicator to predict a reversal, good luck. Though there were already downtrends before the PSAR flipped, it evidently served as a confirmation. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: Dutch Merganser on January 23, 2012, 04:11:03 PM Note that PSAR is nothing magical. Most of time, it flips AFTER the change in sell/buy mood happens. At that time, it is obvious that rally/sellof started. But it looks nice when layed on historical data, though. ;-) Agreed, I always found PSAR to be good for confirming what had already happened too late to act on it ;) Technical analysis is the practice of following trends. If you want the PSAR or any other technical indicator to predict a reversal, good luck. Though there were already downtrends before the PSAR flipped, it evidently served as a confirmation. I was speaking in much broader terms of the applicability of the PSAR. There are measures I have found helpful, particularly after adjusting the parameters, I find the usual fixed default values for things like MACD, Bollinger bands, etc on most canned chart packages ( e.g. Bitcoinica's charts ) are not very useful. I base this on having done quite a bit of back testing on historical data with all manner of measures. For example I was using Bollinger bands years before John Bollinger put his name on them and I found them very useful for picking entry points for an enhanced dollar cost averaging savings approach for mutual funds/IRAs/401K plans/etc. OTOH I find them much less useful in application to individual stocks. It's worth going through the exercise of analyzing these measures that get tossed around so frequently, for one thing it becomes evident that by adjusting the parameters one can construct quite different conclusions for both specific and general scenarios. As far as reversals go, the simplest example of a useful indicator I can think of would be a triple top or bottom, and those don't always work out either. I definitely believe there is a large aspect of self fulfilling prophecy resulting from the use of the same technical indicators by so many parties. That alone is reason enough to watch them, but I don't believe anything all the time. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: gewure on January 23, 2012, 04:19:47 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: ineededausername on January 23, 2012, 04:26:18 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. The truth is, many of the well-known indicators do work in practice, even though they're "known." This is a common myth about technical analysis. In fact, the fact that many people follow them makes them self-perpetuating, which serves to reinforce their usefulness. One need only look at Goomboo's backtesting of the 10/21 EMA rule in order to see that simple and well-known things can still work. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: BrightAnarchist on January 23, 2012, 04:29:27 PM The market is an interesting place, because market activity never repeats itself. It does rhyme though, like the Mark Twain quote.
One can curve fit any indicator or methodology to the past and claim a holy grail, but the future is a different matter entirely. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: ineededausername on January 23, 2012, 04:32:47 PM The market is an interesting place, because market activity never repeats itself. It does rhyme though, like the Mark Twain quote. One can curve fit any indicator or methodology to the past and claim a holy grail, but the future is a different matter entirely. +1. Exactly what I believe about indicators. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: kjj on January 23, 2012, 04:34:31 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. The truth is, many of the well-known indicators do work in practice, even though they're "known." This is a common myth about technical analysis. In fact, the fact that many people follow them makes them self-perpetuating, which serves to reinforce their usefulness. One need only look at Goomboo's backtesting of the 10/21 EMA rule in order to see that simple and well-known things can still work. I guess "followed" would be a better way to put it. If I write a bot that follows the 10/21 EMA rule today, I'll get clobbered, because now people are following it, and their act of following it will cause the indicator to not work any more. Just because it is an old and well known indicator in the real world isn't really the problem, but now that it is a known indicator here it will no longer work here. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: Dutch Merganser on January 23, 2012, 04:38:58 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. The truth is, many of the well-known indicators do work in practice, even though they're "known." This is a common myth about technical analysis. In fact, the fact that many people follow them makes them self-perpetuating, which serves to reinforce their usefulness. One need only look at Goomboo's backtesting of the 10/21 EMA rule in order to see that simple and well-known things can still work. Combinations of moving averages of various types, sampling periods, and intervals can be used to fit a wide range of assertions to arbitrary data samples. I'm not dismissing Goomboo's results on that basis, I just know that to be true by virtue of having done it. In a small, mostly rigged game like bitcoin, I don't find technical analysis very meaningful at all. The best models for understanding bitcoin as it is can be found in the realm of pretty standard penny stock manipulations. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: StewartJ on January 23, 2012, 04:40:15 PM UserName,
Thanks for bringing this indicator to light, had never heard of it before. Noticed you're chart had it in the context of 5 Month / Daily display. Did some research on it and found this helpful info on babypips web site: -------------------------------------------------------- How to Trade Using Parabolic SAR The nice thing about the Parabolic SAR is that it is really simple to use. We mean REALLY simple. Basically, when the dots are below the candles, it is a buy signal; and when the dots are above the candles, it is a sell signal. Simple? Yes, we thought so. This is probably the easiest indicator to interpret because it assumes that the price is either going up or down. With that said, this tool is best used in markets that are trending, and that have long rallies and downturns. You DON'T want to use this tool in a choppy market where the price movement is sideways. Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/parabolic-sar.html -------------------------------------------------------- Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: byronbb on January 23, 2012, 04:48:04 PM It about using indicators to know what people think is going to happen and then find the spot where it will deviate.
Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: StewartJ on January 23, 2012, 04:52:46 PM Added this indicator in conjunction with GoomBoo's 5 Day / Hourly chart (10/21 EMAs).
Might be helpful in finding exit points Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: SgtSpike on January 23, 2012, 05:09:29 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. The truth is, many of the well-known indicators do work in practice, even though they're "known." This is a common myth about technical analysis. In fact, the fact that many people follow them makes them self-perpetuating, which serves to reinforce their usefulness. One need only look at Goomboo's backtesting of the 10/21 EMA rule in order to see that simple and well-known things can still work. I guess "followed" would be a better way to put it. If I write a bot that follows the 10/21 EMA rule today, I'll get clobbered, because now people are following it, and their act of following it will cause the indicator to not work any more. Just because it is an old and well known indicator in the real world isn't really the problem, but now that it is a known indicator here it will no longer work here. If everyone used it, and everyone received a "Buy" signal, then everyone would buy, and the price would shoot up. Similarly, if everyone used it, and everyone received a "Sell" signal, then everyone would sell, and the price would drop like a rock. The only fools would be the ones NOT using it. That's what ineed is talking about when he says it is self-perpetuating. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: StewartJ on January 23, 2012, 05:21:20 PM One more link with explanation of PSAR and how to use it, very helpful:
http://www.stockwatch.com.au/articles/technical-analysis/psar.aspx Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: kjj on January 23, 2012, 05:37:08 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. The truth is, many of the well-known indicators do work in practice, even though they're "known." This is a common myth about technical analysis. In fact, the fact that many people follow them makes them self-perpetuating, which serves to reinforce their usefulness. One need only look at Goomboo's backtesting of the 10/21 EMA rule in order to see that simple and well-known things can still work. I guess "followed" would be a better way to put it. If I write a bot that follows the 10/21 EMA rule today, I'll get clobbered, because now people are following it, and their act of following it will cause the indicator to not work any more. Just because it is an old and well known indicator in the real world isn't really the problem, but now that it is a known indicator here it will no longer work here. If everyone used it, and everyone received a "Buy" signal, then everyone would buy, and the price would shoot up. Similarly, if everyone used it, and everyone received a "Sell" signal, then everyone would sell, and the price would drop like a rock. The only fools would be the ones NOT using it. That's what ineed is talking about when he says it is self-perpetuating. Heh. Try it then. Also, Buy and Sell are opposite views of the same thing. You can't have one without the other. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: SgtSpike on January 23, 2012, 05:47:00 PM Indicators stop indicating once they become known. The truth is, many of the well-known indicators do work in practice, even though they're "known." This is a common myth about technical analysis. In fact, the fact that many people follow them makes them self-perpetuating, which serves to reinforce their usefulness. One need only look at Goomboo's backtesting of the 10/21 EMA rule in order to see that simple and well-known things can still work. I guess "followed" would be a better way to put it. If I write a bot that follows the 10/21 EMA rule today, I'll get clobbered, because now people are following it, and their act of following it will cause the indicator to not work any more. Just because it is an old and well known indicator in the real world isn't really the problem, but now that it is a known indicator here it will no longer work here. If everyone used it, and everyone received a "Buy" signal, then everyone would buy, and the price would shoot up. Similarly, if everyone used it, and everyone received a "Sell" signal, then everyone would sell, and the price would drop like a rock. The only fools would be the ones NOT using it. That's what ineed is talking about when he says it is self-perpetuating. Heh. Try it then. Also, Buy and Sell are opposite views of the same thing. You can't have one without the other. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: YoYa on January 23, 2012, 08:31:05 PM PSAR seems a good idea until you see it whiplashing either side of the value. As just mentioned good for strong trends, but go sideways and it's not worth a damn. I suppose it would be possible to try to use it to indicate exit points.....but I'm just not all that keen on it.
Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: Bro on January 24, 2012, 08:09:52 PM indicators don't indicate, it's all psychological
PSAR = rabbit foot http://ptl2010.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/rabbit_s_foot.jpg Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: legitnick on January 24, 2012, 10:33:00 PM http://i1.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/005/574/1726009-shut_up_and_take_my_money_super.jpg
Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: gurg2.o on January 25, 2012, 01:00:34 AM but seriously take it all
Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: Oldminer on January 25, 2012, 01:49:20 AM SELL SELL SELL!
Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: Goomboo on January 25, 2012, 02:07:00 AM Hmm, I thought I'd stop by and say a word about PSAR.
-If you're using it as a trading system, here's the 10 year backtested performance in the EURUSD on daily charts -Use it as a stop, not a trading signal (it was never design to be an entry signal)! http://www.thetradequest.com/bitcoin/psar2.png http://www.thetradequest.com/bitcoin/psar.png Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: Sargasm on January 25, 2012, 07:28:26 PM It seems to be saying... 'wait'.
Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: StewartJ on January 25, 2012, 07:38:55 PM It seems to be saying... 'wait'. The little circles represent lemmings falling over a cliff... Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: Sargasm on January 25, 2012, 07:43:28 PM It seems to be saying... 'wait'. The little circles represent lemmings falling over a cliff... Apparently they had a little velocity. On another note, last night I was looking at my holdings thinking "This long position looks very vulnerable... buy hey the bid wall looks strong enough" You see the one skidding towards the edge? That's me. I'm half man half bear half lemming. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: StewartJ on January 25, 2012, 08:00:35 PM It seems to be saying... 'wait'. The little circles represent lemmings falling over a cliff... Apparently they had a little velocity. On another note, last night I was looking at my holdings thinking "This long position looks very vulnerable... buy hey the bid wall looks strong enough" You see the one skidding towards the edge? That's me. I'm half man half bear half lemming. Interesting, have been thinking "vulnerable" since the Jan 18 crash. Last night I sold some silver on the "Goods" Forum for payment via BTC. I usually immediately convert BTC proceeds to USD, but for some reason I forgot about it. And lo and behold, the Smack-Down Witch releases the flying monkeys this morning. Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: SkRRJyTC on February 23, 2012, 08:46:23 PM Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: SkRRJyTC on March 15, 2012, 11:50:20 PM Dont fight the holy grail guys... Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: dopamine on March 21, 2012, 03:49:48 PM Well if this is the holy grail look out below...
Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: SkRRJyTC on April 02, 2012, 05:30:35 PM And the holy grail switches... Title: Re: PSAR is the holy grail of indicators Post by: SkRRJyTC on April 02, 2012, 05:38:41 PM i see your psar and i show you my stochastic he just left 90 custom stochastic? I cant find a stochastic oscillator that has touched 90 today. |
