Bitcoin Forum

Just got funded at Bitstamp and ready to go!

Much larger than my usual transactions so I want to get best deal possible.

What price are you guys going for?



Was thinking $402.26 but even lower would be most agreeable  :)

good luck!

Once it gets near 402, you will chicken out and remove your bids.

In 2 days, it will go down, briefly, to $420 and then go back up to $450.

So true   ;D   Been selling BTC on Localbitcoins 8 months now, will keep that trading going @ current market price.

But for this larger acquisition it's different. D'you know what price I've locked-in?? $288.65   ;D  Probably will be cancelling that!

Nice one James, was thinking along same lines.

Lots of variables that affect the spot price but China's news doesn't seem to be having much impact anymore and don't think we will see large Red candles in light of the 10th May Deadline. Could be wrong, hope we do!

Does everybody agree with Mr James $420.00 floor?

Agree  :D

I've got my dank ready to blaze it.

Cheers UT and Krabby!

I'm not good with complex trading, appreciate knowing what price you guys would set?

Only if the Silk Road-April 11th 2014 crash log trend line in China holds..

https://i.imgur.com/sDVyk0j.jpg

Currently, the Largest wall on Bitstamp is @ $400 barrier:


(Price, BTC, Total$)
$400.00   516.85464245   $206,741.86

Will have to be some Real Bad news to break past that?

I believe $3xx is history. Aiming at $500 next week.

Cheers for Screenshot - have you been trading using EMA's, Log extrapolations?

What price would you lock-in?

Nice one brother!

I love the Bitcoin protocol and want to see it and related applications develop. So it's strange that I'm hoping for something bad to affect it's price   :D

I also think rise to approx. $500 is likely  :-\

So would you personally go for current market $435-440 ?

Yes, and many more indicators as well.. Mostly trade on log trend lines during this bear trend.
 
I don't have a particular price in mind right now, just on the look out for more decisive price action.

Wow, you trading analysts amaze me, wish I was that clever!

I do ultimately want to increase sales volumes on Localbitcoins but will try to be patient and watch the action.

I would. But I don't trade. Been more or less all-in since $5 (May 2012). Maybe wait to Saturday to see what happens then.

Consensus so far is $420-435.

Logical... But when I look at it again, doesn't seem much different to current price. You guys would lock-in a better deal right?

Cheers man, you've been in this game for a while now, I'd be wise to follow your advise - I won't rush this acquisition.

I've currently locked-in/joined the $360 wall, just in case something funky happens

Everyone is waiting to buy on the next dip, and that's why it's not going to happen.

I would suggest that Bitcoin should find a lot of support around about the $360 level. If this transpires, then it will seem as though Bitcoin has put in a higher low and there could be a surge of interest that could take Bitcoin up quickly higher. How much higher it goes however, would depend on the interest in Bitcoin from outwith the die hard traders who are hovering over the charts looking to hit the projected lows and ride the waves up.

Me personally, I have buy ins between $260 - $300 on Bitstamp. If however I am present and that Bitcoin hits $360 range, depending on how various technical indicators look, I may take a long punt at this price, without necessarily believing that this would be the final low.


Yeah yeah yeah.....fkn heard that one before and it cost me a few grand at least.

Good man!  ;)

The old Sheep effect  :)   You're probably right

Everyone is just waiting for someone else to make a move.
We're beginning to come to the breakout point of a few TA's and waiting for the stars to align imo.
I would be hesitant on relying on it going down much further and keep on your toes.

Nice one MTC, so you're shooting low. In fact you are using my current strategy - For now will keep locked-in @$360

True say mate! The last move took us down to around the $420 range and I would need a much larger net volume "dump" so hit $360's.

I must concede that current market price will turn out to be the best deal, will keep on toe's with you brother  ;)

I don't discount the possibility that it could happen, in fact I've spent much of last night awake crunching numbers and going over recent graphs and I've come up with the possibility that we could see a dip to $380 in the next two weeks, but it would need the proper catalyst. The market has been shrugging off most of the China FUD at this point, so it would probably take closures BTC China and Huobi at this point to reach that price level again.

Oh yeah, someone please explain to me how they are still alive?

Both good points! Agreed, would take something Epic to filter down Media channels and reach $360-380 range.

That would be a movement of $60-80.

If you were me, what price would you lock-in Kireinaha?

I think most would suggest not to 'lock-in' at one price.

Yeah hear you bro! However largest proportion at lowest price, would be ace  :D

Agreed, I wouldn't lock in at any price. I'd probably stagger my buys from now over the next two weeks, since I and several others are expecting a market reversal soon, but there could be one last dip beforehand.

Must still be profitable for them, think they're trying their best to get Fully complied. Other banks within china are still currently processing withdrawals/deposits for now.

Well said mate! Was thinking along the same lines. I do understand staggering offers some protection but I too am waiting for that one last dip  ;D

Problem is, in my experience those dips never arrived with respect to China. Well at least not on time  ::)

Is there anybody else expecting something to happen on 10-11th May?

I'm getting the feel that nothing significant will happen on May 10th. Perhaps even a rise after the weekend.  However, we've heard that the PBOC is concerned about bank accounts being used to purchase bitcoin (which makes absolutely zero sense, as it is legal to own and the Chinese have to use Yuan to actually purchase it, duh).  If the PBOC perceive a rise, ANY rise in price, as some kind of threat or against the spirit of their wishes, they will try to exact further measures with more FUD and threats to the Chinese exchanges.  And this could take weeks to play out, as the PBOC does everything on a delay.

The only real question remaining is a) how many total bitcoin is owned by the Chinese out of the total out there in circulation, and b) of what percentage are these folks willing to sell on more China bad news (i.e., possible Chinese exchange shutdown).  My guess is not many left.  Those with the most fear of the PBOC or the weakest hands would have sold long ago.

My feeling is the amount of bitcoin owned by the Chinese is now a much smaller subset of the total bitcoin in the world, than it was back in November.  And so, this has now become an elaborate game of Chicken.  Can a Chinese selloff affect the price that much from here?  My bet is nay, maybe $50-75 at most.  The PBOC cannot hold back the tide forever, because bitcoin is global.

fwiw this is the end of may consensus of the players in our little game of predict the price...

https://i.imgur.com/SXhsXTKl.png (http://imgur.com/SXhsXTK)

and this is how it develops over next 8 months...

https://i.imgur.com/B18GTy4l.png (http://imgur.com/B18GTy4)

clearly we are all far too optimistic ;)

Your saying what a lot of us are thinking - Thanks for post!

So $50-75 at most $390-375

Have the same fears too that we're non-stop to $500 now. But PBOC might restrict to the point at which Chinese bitcoiners can only acquire with physical CNY/RMB.

I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

A. Based on a lack of sellers, supply gradually falls to meet and exceed the lack of fresh fiat. In this scenario 420 or slightly below would be our bottom and we'd range trade for a while, maybe months before slowly going up.

B. Lack of demand + new coins to the markets + Chinese squeeze on new fiat + Chinese abandonment of exchanges leads us to test low of 340 and with likelihood, break through it. Bear market continues, possible retest of 270.

C. Market rally's from here to mid 500s to low 600s then comes back down to retest high 400s before moving into a slow bull market.

Take your pick, there are reasons why each could happen.

Haha, interesting chart, thanks for that!

Fun and Games  :D



UPDATE: I'm still locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp atm.

I'm thinking scenario C most likely but hoping for B first  :D   So if you had an extraordinary amount of FIAT to acquire BTC, you would personally shoot low for now and wait?

Which scenario do you think is most likely?

Cheers man, $440 sponsored by SOUSPEED

If I had to bet, I would put in order of most likely A,B,C.

There's no new fiat, sans yours, so a rally would have to come from money on sidelines or leverage. With money leaving Chinese exchanges, I see this as unlikely. But mid 500s is attainable.

I choose A as we are at the edge of a huge technical triangle and there are major forces keeping us here from top and bottom.

However, if the forces from below that are keeping us here give way, and they could, then technically the bear market could continue for a while.

Nice one mate - Appreciate you thoughts  - Got no-one else to discuss this with so it's cool having a team of traders on here.

So going with scenario A you'd lock-in $420 , there's strong support for this figure from rest.

We are in a downtrend and, according to it, my prediction for May, 31st is <398USD. Specifically 292-398USD, centered on 367USD the way my numbers look as of today. I obviously may be wrong; it's just my prediction. Here it is posted to be (in)/validated...

Buying in a dip is nice unless its a bull trap.
So far there are no signs of trend change (it may still happen suddenly, with little warnings) so any dip may be a trap.
On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons to expect bad news that will only accelerate the actual trend.
I'd say it's wiser to buy on uptrend (/wait for it as long as it may be needed) and to protect your hard-earned money if that's the case.
Or is it about easy money?

Cheers for the rational prediction Allro!

I love bitcoin and it's potential, starting to use it from day to day instead of GBP (I'm from the UK). My funds are from years of hard grafting, I'm a geologist. Was made redundant last year. So now using my savings to invest in the future.

Appreciate your analysis, considering joining the $400 wall as you suggest. For now I'm still locked-in @ $360, not far off your center

 :D Some Dutch bank has just said Bitcoins; “are unlikely to become a viable alternative for traditional currency in the foreseeable future”.

Coindesk report here: http://www.coindesk.com/dutch-central-bank-bitcoin-viable-alternative-fiat-currency/

Could be that dip we are looking for? Probably not that significant......

Guys just found out a major player has just left the game, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC).

Not sure if this will impact the price, however they are the largest bank in China, and the largest bank in the world by assets.

Du Jun, the co-founder and vice president at one of China's leading digital currency exchanges Huobi.com, told Reuters that to move as a severe blow to the industry. .

“We online exchanges as well as the entire industry are facing a serious challenge. Without an incoming cash flow, it's hard to operate an exchange,” Jun stated.

Still currently locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp  :)

News is approximately 8 Hrs old now and I haven't noticed any movement in the price - perhaps the floor has past?

Stop looking for news events to move the market.

The market moves when the market wants to move and the news events get stapled to it with hindsight.

Perhaps China is already priced in? (doubt it), perhaps it is still to be priced in? (most likely). Either way, you don't know the myriad of mechanisms involved that will lead to certain players dumping coins or eating up as many as they can buy, even if you have a 'news event' to refer to.

This is an awesome demonstration in somebody chasing the market ...lolz

I think ..."you are going to miss out biatch :D"

Hows your emotional state ....lets check in about 6 more hours...   8)

Mat appreciate your opinion - unfortunately I hear most current events via the media. Bitcoins price is multivariate, but a lot of folks on here have attributed recent drops due to China's present situation, that's why I felt it pertinent. No offense intended.

Wife thinks I'm a bit of a biatch at times too  :D

Lost my job last year and we had to move back to the UK, just lucky to find out about the bitcoin protocol in August and finally made our first investment. We've been fortunate to have already made a nice return and my Localbitcoins selling is taking off. This is our only form of income at the moment, so we both decided to go all-in of sorts with our Redundancy and Super Annuation/Pension. It's a huge proportion of our savings so just trying to get best deal we can, not sure when I'll be able to work again.

You're right though, have been following Bitcoin news a lot more than usual since we sent the funds over to BStamp  ;D

If we end up acquiring volume @ $480 that's cool, if we manage to acquire @ $360 , even better.

Emotional states are good at the minute, I will certainly feel a bit of relief once we've got our BTC.




 

Once you get filled ..you will chillax ... 420 is a great price

If i was you

25% @ current market
25% @ 420 (if u can get it )
25% @ 380 (if u can get  it)
25% @ market converted into LTC

I take it is for mid-long term investment ...once u are filled life will be good ..but u need to get some skin in the game now not when "it goes lower"

 ;)

Full disclosure I am "ALL IN" and its all good ..Mat & other bears selling the doom & gloom is water off a ducks back ..As long as u are not planning to sell out in the next 4 weeks ....this plan is very low RISK ....waiting to be filled @ 380 IS high RISK

Cheers YipYip, Thanks for your advise, can tell you know what you are talking about!

Somebody else posted earlier about staggering our acquisition for protection. The more I think about it, does make a lot of sense - will definitely consider.
It's great hearing from experienced traders, there's a good community on here.

Do you still hold ~25% LTC?

My break down is 35% btc 65% LTC (6 figures fiat) like yourself I have my (SMSF aka aussie 401k) invested in crypto

I have a couple of $K fiat in doge,vert,dark & groestl ..(I do have 60m scrypt GPU farm that funds the alt investment)

Historically LTC has been awesome for me & many others ...it is the silver to btc gold and as long as btc goes so will ltc

Ltc is also a lot more user friendly when day trading with 10-25$ chips

Trust me take a position and you feel really cool ... after going through 2 previous bubbles this time I dont have all my fiat in mining...investment is the way

Mining is a short term safe pathway ...invesment is a longterm game with an awesome pay off :D

Obviously news events affect the price of Bitcoin in that they often relate to real world Bitcoin investing phenomena.

i.e. PBOC intends to shut down all Bitcoin exchanges.

This leads to Joe Blow in China fleeing from the market in a panic. But, had Bitcoin been trading flat for months, would this news have had the same effect? Bitcoin was already through the roof parabolic and had already formed a very ominous double top and was ready to take a plummet anyhow. The news only hastened and perhaps accentuated what the market was wanting to do anyways.

What I am saying is don't go chasing headlines.

Reading through Yip Yip's responses, he is probably right in that the trend is set to reverse, but that doesn't mean that Bitcoin won't go right down to the $200 range first. It might, it might not. Question is that if you buy NOW, with such a large chunk of your savings and thus future security at stake; how are you going to react if/when the market goes against you? I have seen me closing short positions right at a point where I am advocating other people short. i.e. my rational thinking 'knows' that the market has ran it's course and is about to correct but my emotional state can't take the torture of the chance of having my whole position liquidated and taking a 100% loss. So I cemented a very large loss on that one grossly misguided short trade and guess what? Had I just held out and adjusted my position a bit (cos otherwise my liquidation price point would have been triggered and I would have been wiped out), then I could have broken even. So, just consider how rationally you will behave if you take Yip Yip's advice and buy-in NOW only for the market to take another leg down. Last time I seen him give someone this advice, it was me he was 'advising', and Bitcoin was at $520.


Get your self to the TA drawing board and mark down the two important long term trendlines. One of which is going to be breached within a few days. Actually, here is a screenshot for you:



The long term resistance line dates back to the Dec 2013 highs. If this were to be breached, that would strongly suggest that the down wave has completed and would be bullish. The long term support line goes way back to the foot of the big ramp up, when Bitcoin was still just around $10. If that were to be breached, it would suggest that the phase of the grand cycle for which that line was a support is over, at at some point in the future, Bitcoin would need to be testing the 'even grander cycle' support line beneath it, which intersects the support line shown in the screenshot, but dates back to the Nov 2011 low, and is presently hovering around the $100 mark (I amn't suggesting that Bitcoin will go to $100 btw). Also shown in the screenshot is a resistance trend line that has been in force since Jan 6th 2014. What I am doing, is that I am waiting for that to be breached and confirmed before taking a long in the $400 range. Currently that would mean prices of around $470. If it were to occur (I really don't think it will), then I would be watching like a hawk for price action up and around the major resistance trend line above it. If Bitcoin fails to take out that then I would close 100% my position.

Right now, with Bitcoin hovering around $440 on ultra low volume. The only wise investment decision to take is do nothing and wait for a breach of the trendlines for the market to show you unequivocally what it's intentions are.

...

The Final Countdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw

I'm newer at this than you are but that sounds like a good mentality to take. If you have the stomach to wait, I would wait for $380. If you want to play it "safer", then I don't think YipYip's plan is a bad one. Again, if you feel unsure about waiting, maybe 50% now, and then the rest at $360 or $500 (whichever comes first)?

Looking to buy in the next down turn.. but I never left or plan too.

Hey brother hope you've had a good day man! Cheers for getting back - That's an interesting % portfolio your holding. Wasn't expecting!

re: 65% LTC, mathematically I would have to agree with you, honestly, don't have the nerve to go hard on LTC  :)

Good of you to share your portfolio with us!

Hopefully we will take our position very soon. Will keep you updated on our long-term investment.

Hi Mat, how's it going mate - Cheers for the post and sorry for the late reply, been busy all day  :)

Yeah YipYip makes a good point about the potential reversal. As a safe guard, we were thinking of immediately liquidating 80% BTC funds on Localbitcoins and then buying back equivalent amount @market, in this case, $200 range, if the market turns south. This is only way I can think of?

Thank for the chart! Projected resistance and trend-lines, intriguing. Good tactic your using there, took me a while to get my head around  :D  Volumetric based barriers. Mate, reckon you got decent chance for $470 action.

Volume is low, all round! Effectively being patient and waiting for high volume movement. We are currently still at the $360 wall on Bstamp.  Brother it's gonna take days, weeks to make this acquisition  ::)

Virtuous Bitcoins

Hi Bazil240, welcome to the forums man!

Mr YipYip makes a lot of sense mathematically, but we will be patient for now and wait for large volume movement (large Red 12Hr candle on bitcoinwisdom) At best only 5% investing now at current market.

Stomach definitely going to be tested over the next few days  :D  Waiting suks!

For a lot of us bitcoiners, we want to see it's value worth $4000+ in near future. So keep on hold of yours brother, though your buy-in may have been higher than current price, it'll work out as a great average price when you bought-in, I'm sure  8)

Most of the professional traders that have replied on this thread, agree BTC's a long-term investment

How's it going guys? Hope today's down dip was good for some of you!

I still have a large buy-in order @ $360 on Bitstamp, we've been waiting now for 3 days  :D

Do you guys think we'll test that $400 barrier, honestly?

The short signal will be if Bitcoin dips down below $428ish, and fails to come back up and/or stay back up.

For various reasons, I think $360 is a fucking good bet for a bit of crashy bouncey action....just don't place 100% of your buy-ins at $360, on the button.

of course I will buy my btc back ... one day  ::) eventually ... hell I really sold it low ...

He sold it at $430. That is the price that Bitcoin is now so he has a chance to be back in more or less the same position as he was in when he sold. Question is, if he was a newcomer to the market, would right now, at $435 really be such a great point to buy in at?

I am looking for a long opportunity, am I buying right now? No chance!

Can't wait till Mat gets on the train, all happy like...

http://i62.tinypic.com/ejz8ld.gif

On to it mate! patiently chasing next tail end of 12Hr Net Crash n' Bouncy Red candle. Won't do 100% on the button, if we've past $400 barrier will be sure to get in-touch with you for a discussion.

Brilliant!  Gotta get me one of those - Cheers Stuart  ;D

hang in there bud, looks like I too will be waiting for $360 range. Hopefully within a couple of weeks, don't think I can hold out much longer than that  :D

This uber low volume and consolidation means it is building up steam for either

1) break below 300
2) break above 550

Also known as a squeeze we may be here for 3-4 weeks

I really dont see any fundamentals to be pushing it lower so your last bastion of hope was china fud and its all out of steam

Us white devils will need to put this rocket on the launch pad ourself's :D

AGreed ..he needs some lolz in his bearish life :D

Very wise as always YY - You know my current position, so hoping for action to move towards 1). Chinese FUD appears out of steam, agreed.

Interesting month ahead!

holy crap and I was thinking about my retirement, my bloody pension ;D have you guys had a stroke ? and forgot your billion brain wallet ? NO ??? so ...

 ;) Partly!!

No, what it is, is that previously working overseas we get the option to either keep pension/super annuation account running or relinquish 30% and withdrawal.

We thought long and hard and decided Bitcoin offers greater financial incentive at the moment. I'm very passionate about my job and would love to do more projects in Australia and Canada but reality is, I'm not sure how long that will take.

Best of luck with your retirement funds Knightcoin, keep it safe if not feeling confident in Bitcoin economy!

About 12 hours to new fiat arrives at Stamp. The asks are low. Will the next days be last chance to buy below 450?

Everyday this year so far was "the last chance to buy below 1200"...

That's a lie. What do you think about 450 this week?