08/05/2014 Anyone else waiting to buy back in next down turn?

[RockHound]

and this is how it develops over next 8 months...



clearly we are all far too optimistic

Haha, interesting chart, thanks for that!

Fun and Games  



UPDATE: I'm still locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp atm.

[RockHound]

Consensus so far is $420-435.

Logical... But when I look at it again, doesn't seem much different to current price. You guys would lock-in a better deal right?

fwiw this is the end of may consensus of the players in our little game of predict the price...

I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

A. Based on a lack of sellers, supply gradually falls to meet and exceed the lack of fresh fiat. In this scenario 420 or slightly below would be our bottom and we'd range trade for a while, maybe months before slowly going up.

B. Lack of demand + new coins to the markets + Chinese squeeze on new fiat + Chinese abandonment of exchanges leads us to test low of 340 and with likelihood, break through it. Bear market continues, possible retest of 270.

C. Market rally's from here to mid 500s to low 600s then comes back down to retest high 400s before moving into a slow bull market.

Take your pick, there are reasons why each could happen.

I'm thinking scenario C most likely but hoping for B first     So if you had an extraordinary amount of FIAT to acquire BTC, you would personally shoot low for now and wait?

Which scenario do you think is most likely?

[RockHound]

Cheap days are over!
You either get in or you're too late.

Cheers man, $440 sponsored by SOUSPEED

[windjc]

Consensus so far is $420-435.

Logical... But when I look at it again, doesn't seem much different to current price. You guys would lock-in a better deal right?

fwiw this is the end of may consensus of the players in our little game of predict the price...

I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

A. Based on a lack of sellers, supply gradually falls to meet and exceed the lack of fresh fiat. In this scenario 420 or slightly below would be our bottom and we'd range trade for a while, maybe months before slowly going up.

B. Lack of demand + new coins to the markets + Chinese squeeze on new fiat + Chinese abandonment of exchanges leads us to test low of 340 and with likelihood, break through it. Bear market continues, possible retest of 270.

C. Market rally's from here to mid 500s to low 600s then comes back down to retest high 400s before moving into a slow bull market.

Take your pick, there are reasons why each could happen.

I'm thinking scenario C most likely but hoping for B first     So if you had an extraordinary amount of FIAT to acquire BTC, you would personally shoot low for now and wait?

Which scenario do you think is most likely?

If I had to bet, I would put in order of most likely A,B,C.

There's no new fiat, sans yours, so a rally would have to come from money on sidelines or leverage. With money leaving Chinese exchanges, I see this as unlikely. But mid 500s is attainable.

I choose A as we are at the edge of a huge technical triangle and there are major forces keeping us here from top and bottom.

However, if the forces from below that are keeping us here give way, and they could, then technically the bear market could continue for a while.

[RockHound]

Consensus so far is $420-435.

Logical... But when I look at it again, doesn't seem much different to current price. You guys would lock-in a better deal right?

fwiw this is the end of may consensus of the players in our little game of predict the price...

I think there are 3 likely scenarios:

A. Based on a lack of sellers, supply gradually falls to meet and exceed the lack of fresh fiat. In this scenario 420 or slightly below would be our bottom and we'd range trade for a while, maybe months before slowly going up.

B. Lack of demand + new coins to the markets + Chinese squeeze on new fiat + Chinese abandonment of exchanges leads us to test low of 340 and with likelihood, break through it. Bear market continues, possible retest of 270.

C. Market rally's from here to mid 500s to low 600s then comes back down to retest high 400s before moving into a slow bull market.

Take your pick, there are reasons why each could happen.

I'm thinking scenario C most likely but hoping for B first     So if you had an extraordinary amount of FIAT to acquire BTC, you would personally shoot low for now and wait?

Which scenario do you think is most likely?

If I had to bet, I would put in order of most likely A,B,C.

There's no new fiat, sans yours, so a rally would have to come from money on sidelines or leverage. With money leaving Chinese exchanges, I see this as unlikely. But mid 500s is attainable.

I choose A as we are at the edge of a huge technical triangle and there are major forces keeping us here from top and bottom.

However, if the forces from below that are keeping us here give way, and they could, then technically the bear market could continue for a while.

Nice one mate - Appreciate you thoughts  - Got no-one else to discuss this with so it's cool having a team of traders on here.

So going with scenario A you'd lock-in $420 , there's strong support for this figure from rest.

[aliro38]

We are in a downtrend and, according to it, my prediction for May, 31st is <398USD. Specifically 292-398USD, centered on 367USD the way my numbers look as of today. I obviously may be wrong; it's just my prediction. Here it is posted to be (in)/validated...

Buying in a dip is nice unless its a bull trap.
So far there are no signs of trend change (it may still happen suddenly, with little warnings) so any dip may be a trap.
On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons to expect bad news that will only accelerate the actual trend.
I'd say it's wiser to buy on uptrend (/wait for it as long as it may be needed) and to protect your hard-earned money if that's the case.
Or is it about easy money?

[RockHound]

We are in a downtrend and, according to it, my prediction for May, 31st is <398USD. Specifically 292-398USD, centered on 367USD the way my numbers look as of today. I obviously may be wrong; it's just my prediction. Here it is posted to be (in)/validated...

Buying in a dip is nice unless its a bull trap.
So far there are no signs of trend change (it may still happen suddenly, with little warnings) so any dip may be a trap.
On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons to expect bad news that will only accelerate the actual trend.
I'd say it's wiser to buy on uptrend (/wait for it as long as it may be needed) and to protect your hard-earned money if that's the case.
Or is it about easy money?

Cheers for the rational prediction Allro!

I love bitcoin and it's potential, starting to use it from day to day instead of GBP (I'm from the UK). My funds are from years of hard grafting, I'm a geologist. Was made redundant last year. So now using my savings to invest in the future.

Appreciate your analysis, considering joining the $400 wall as you suggest. For now I'm still locked-in @ $360, not far off your center

[RockHound]

  Some Dutch bank has just said Bitcoins; “are unlikely to become a viable alternative for traditional currency in the foreseeable future”.

Coindesk report here: http://www.coindesk.com/dutch-central-bank-bitcoin-viable-alternative-fiat-currency/

Could be that dip we are looking for? Probably not that significant......

[RockHound]

Guys just found out a major player has just left the game, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC).

Not sure if this will impact the price, however they are the largest bank in China, and the largest bank in the world by assets.

Du Jun, the co-founder and vice president at one of China's leading digital currency exchanges Huobi.com, told Reuters that to move as a severe blow to the industry. .

“We online exchanges as well as the entire industry are facing a serious challenge. Without an incoming cash flow, it's hard to operate an exchange,” Jun stated.

Still currently locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp  

News is approximately 8 Hrs old now and I haven't noticed any movement in the price - perhaps the floor has past?

[MatTheCat]

Stop looking for news events to move the market.

The market moves when the market wants to move and the news events get stapled to it with hindsight.

Perhaps China is already priced in? (doubt it), perhaps it is still to be priced in? (most likely). Either way, you don't know the myriad of mechanisms involved that will lead to certain players dumping coins or eating up as many as they can buy, even if you have a 'news event' to refer to.

[YipYip]

Guys just found out a major player has just left the game, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC).

Not sure if this will impact the price, however they are the largest bank in China, and the largest bank in the world by assets.

Du Jun, the co-founder and vice president at one of China's leading digital currency exchanges Huobi.com, told Reuters that to move as a severe blow to the industry. .

“We online exchanges as well as the entire industry are facing a serious challenge. Without an incoming cash flow, it's hard to operate an exchange,” Jun stated.

Still currently locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp  

News is approximately 8 Hrs old now and I haven't noticed any movement in the price - perhaps the floor has past?

This is an awesome demonstration in somebody chasing the market ...lolz

I think ..."you are going to miss out biatch "

Hows your emotional state ....lets check in about 6 more hours...   

[RockHound]

Stop looking for news events to move the market.

The market moves when the market wants to move and the news events get stapled to it with hindsight.

Perhaps China is already priced in? (doubt it), perhaps it is still to be priced in? (most likely). Either way, you don't know the myriad of mechanisms involved that will lead to certain players dumping coins or eating up as many as they can buy, even if you have a 'news event' to refer to.

Mat appreciate your opinion - unfortunately I hear most current events via the media. Bitcoins price is multivariate, but a lot of folks on here have attributed recent drops due to China's present situation, that's why I felt it pertinent. No offense intended.

[RockHound]

Guys just found out a major player has just left the game, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC).

Not sure if this will impact the price, however they are the largest bank in China, and the largest bank in the world by assets.

Du Jun, the co-founder and vice president at one of China's leading digital currency exchanges Huobi.com, told Reuters that to move as a severe blow to the industry. .

“We online exchanges as well as the entire industry are facing a serious challenge. Without an incoming cash flow, it's hard to operate an exchange,” Jun stated.

Still currently locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp  

News is approximately 8 Hrs old now and I haven't noticed any movement in the price - perhaps the floor has past?

This is an awesome demonstration in somebody chasing the market ...lolz

I think ..."you are going to miss out biatch "

Hows your emotional state ....lets check in about 6 more hours...   

Wife thinks I'm a bit of a biatch at times too 

Lost my job last year and we had to move back to the UK, just lucky to find out about the bitcoin protocol in August and finally made our first investment. We've been fortunate to have already made a nice return and my Localbitcoins selling is taking off. This is our only form of income at the moment, so we both decided to go all-in of sorts with our Redundancy and Super Annuation/Pension. It's a huge proportion of our savings so just trying to get best deal we can, not sure when I'll be able to work again.

You're right though, have been following Bitcoin news a lot more than usual since we sent the funds over to BStamp 

If we end up acquiring volume @ $480 that's cool, if we manage to acquire @ $360 , even better.

Emotional states are good at the minute, I will certainly feel a bit of relief once we've got our BTC.




 

[YipYip]

Guys just found out a major player has just left the game, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC).

Not sure if this will impact the price, however they are the largest bank in China, and the largest bank in the world by assets.

Du Jun, the co-founder and vice president at one of China's leading digital currency exchanges Huobi.com, told Reuters that to move as a severe blow to the industry. .

“We online exchanges as well as the entire industry are facing a serious challenge. Without an incoming cash flow, it's hard to operate an exchange,” Jun stated.

Still currently locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp  

News is approximately 8 Hrs old now and I haven't noticed any movement in the price - perhaps the floor has past?

This is an awesome demonstration in somebody chasing the market ...lolz

I think ..."you are going to miss out biatch "

Hows your emotional state ....lets check in about 6 more hours...  

Wife thinks I'm a bit of a biatch at times too  

Lost my job last year and we had to move back to the UK, just lucky to find out about the bitcoin protocol in August and finally made our first investment. We've been fortunate to have already made a nice return and my Localbitcoins selling is taking off. This is our only form of income at the moment, so we both decided to go all-in of sorts with our Redundancy and Super Annuation/Pension. It's a huge proportion of our savings so just trying to get best deal we can, not sure when I'll be able to work again.

You're right though, have been following Bitcoin news a lot more than usual since we sent the funds over to BStamp  

If we end up acquiring volume @ $480 that's cool, if we manage to acquire @ $360 , even better.

Emotional states are good at the minute, I will certainly feel a bit of relief once we've got our BTC.

Once you get filled ..you will chillax ... 420 is a great price

If i was you

25% @ current market
25% @ 420 (if u can get it )
25% @ 380 (if u can get  it)
25% @ market converted into LTC

I take it is for mid-long term investment ...once u are filled life will be good ..but u need to get some skin in the game now not when "it goes lower"

 

Full disclosure I am "ALL IN" and its all good ..Mat & other bears selling the doom & gloom is water off a ducks back ..As long as u are not planning to sell out in the next 4 weeks ....this plan is very low RISK ....waiting to be filled @ 380 IS high RISK

[RockHound]

Guys just found out a major player has just left the game, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC).

Not sure if this will impact the price, however they are the largest bank in China, and the largest bank in the world by assets.

Du Jun, the co-founder and vice president at one of China's leading digital currency exchanges Huobi.com, told Reuters that to move as a severe blow to the industry. .

“We online exchanges as well as the entire industry are facing a serious challenge. Without an incoming cash flow, it's hard to operate an exchange,” Jun stated.

Still currently locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp  

News is approximately 8 Hrs old now and I haven't noticed any movement in the price - perhaps the floor has past?

This is an awesome demonstration in somebody chasing the market ...lolz

I think ..."you are going to miss out biatch "

Hows your emotional state ....lets check in about 6 more hours...  

Wife thinks I'm a bit of a biatch at times too  

Lost my job last year and we had to move back to the UK, just lucky to find out about the bitcoin protocol in August and finally made our first investment. We've been fortunate to have already made a nice return and my Localbitcoins selling is taking off. This is our only form of income at the moment, so we both decided to go all-in of sorts with our Redundancy and Super Annuation/Pension. It's a huge proportion of our savings so just trying to get best deal we can, not sure when I'll be able to work again.

You're right though, have been following Bitcoin news a lot more than usual since we sent the funds over to BStamp  

If we end up acquiring volume @ $480 that's cool, if we manage to acquire @ $360 , even better.

Emotional states are good at the minute, I will certainly feel a bit of relief once we've got our BTC.

Once you get filled ..you will chillax ... 420 is a great price

If i was you

25% @ current market
25% @ 420 (if u can get it )
25% @ 380 (if u can get  it)
25% @ market converted into LTC

I take it is for mid-long term investment ...once u are filled life will be good ..but u need to get some skin in the game now not when "it goes lower"

 

Full disclosure I am "ALL IN" and its all good ..Mat & other bears selling the doom & gloom is water off a ducks back ..As long as u are not planning to sell out in the next 4 weeks ....this plan is very low RISK ....waiting to be filled @ 380 IS high RISK

Cheers YipYip, Thanks for your advise, can tell you know what you are talking about!

Somebody else posted earlier about staggering our acquisition for protection. The more I think about it, does make a lot of sense - will definitely consider.
It's great hearing from experienced traders, there's a good community on here.

Do you still hold ~25% LTC?

[YipYip]

Guys just found out a major player has just left the game, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC).

Not sure if this will impact the price, however they are the largest bank in China, and the largest bank in the world by assets.

Du Jun, the co-founder and vice president at one of China's leading digital currency exchanges Huobi.com, told Reuters that to move as a severe blow to the industry. .

“We online exchanges as well as the entire industry are facing a serious challenge. Without an incoming cash flow, it's hard to operate an exchange,” Jun stated.

Still currently locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp  

News is approximately 8 Hrs old now and I haven't noticed any movement in the price - perhaps the floor has past?

This is an awesome demonstration in somebody chasing the market ...lolz

I think ..."you are going to miss out biatch "

Hows your emotional state ....lets check in about 6 more hours...  

Wife thinks I'm a bit of a biatch at times too  

Lost my job last year and we had to move back to the UK, just lucky to find out about the bitcoin protocol in August and finally made our first investment. We've been fortunate to have already made a nice return and my Localbitcoins selling is taking off. This is our only form of income at the moment, so we both decided to go all-in of sorts with our Redundancy and Super Annuation/Pension. It's a huge proportion of our savings so just trying to get best deal we can, not sure when I'll be able to work again.

You're right though, have been following Bitcoin news a lot more than usual since we sent the funds over to BStamp  

If we end up acquiring volume @ $480 that's cool, if we manage to acquire @ $360 , even better.

Emotional states are good at the minute, I will certainly feel a bit of relief once we've got our BTC.

Once you get filled ..you will chillax ... 420 is a great price

If i was you

25% @ current market
25% @ 420 (if u can get it )
25% @ 380 (if u can get  it)
25% @ market converted into LTC

I take it is for mid-long term investment ...once u are filled life will be good ..but u need to get some skin in the game now not when "it goes lower"

 

Full disclosure I am "ALL IN" and its all good ..Mat & other bears selling the doom & gloom is water off a ducks back ..As long as u are not planning to sell out in the next 4 weeks ....this plan is very low RISK ....waiting to be filled @ 380 IS high RISK

Cheers YipYip, Thanks for your advise, can tell you know what you are talking about!

Somebody else posted earlier about staggering our acquisition for protection. The more I think about it, does make a lot of sense - will definitely consider.
It's great hearing from experienced traders, there's a good community on here.

Do you still hold ~25% LTC?

My break down is 35% btc 65% LTC (6 figures fiat) like yourself I have my (SMSF aka aussie 401k) invested in crypto

I have a couple of $K fiat in doge,vert,dark & groestl ..(I do have 60m scrypt GPU farm that funds the alt investment)

Historically LTC has been awesome for me & many others ...it is the silver to btc gold and as long as btc goes so will ltc

Ltc is also a lot more user friendly when day trading with 10-25$ chips

Trust me take a position and you feel really cool ... after going through 2 previous bubbles this time I dont have all my fiat in mining...investment is the way

Mining is a short term safe pathway ...invesment is a longterm game with an awesome pay off

[MatTheCat]

Stop looking for news events to move the market.

The market moves when the market wants to move and the news events get stapled to it with hindsight.

Perhaps China is already priced in? (doubt it), perhaps it is still to be priced in? (most likely). Either way, you don't know the myriad of mechanisms involved that will lead to certain players dumping coins or eating up as many as they can buy, even if you have a 'news event' to refer to.

Mat appreciate your opinion - unfortunately I hear most current eventS via the media. Bitcoins price is multivariate, but a lot of folks on here have attributed recent drops due to China's present situation, that's why I felt it pertinent. No offense intended.

Obviously news events affect the price of Bitcoin in that they often relate to real world Bitcoin investing phenomena.

i.e. PBOC intends to shut down all Bitcoin exchanges.

This leads to Joe Blow in China fleeing from the market in a panic. But, had Bitcoin been trading flat for months, would this news have had the same effect? Bitcoin was already through the roof parabolic and had already formed a very ominous double top and was ready to take a plummet anyhow. The news only hastened and perhaps accentuated what the market was wanting to do anyways.

What I am saying is don't go chasing headlines.

Reading through Yip Yip's responses, he is probably right in that the trend is set to reverse, but that doesn't mean that Bitcoin won't go right down to the $200 range first. It might, it might not. Question is that if you buy NOW, with such a large chunk of your savings and thus future security at stake; how are you going to react if/when the market goes against you? I have seen me closing short positions right at a point where I am advocating other people short. i.e. my rational thinking 'knows' that the market has ran it's course and is about to correct but my emotional state can't take the torture of the chance of having my whole position liquidated and taking a 100% loss. So I cemented a very large loss on that one grossly misguided short trade and guess what? Had I just held out and adjusted my position a bit (cos otherwise my liquidation price point would have been triggered and I would have been wiped out), then I could have broken even. So, just consider how rationally you will behave if you take Yip Yip's advice and buy-in NOW only for the market to take another leg down. Last time I seen him give someone this advice, it was me he was 'advising', and Bitcoin was at $520.


Get your self to the TA drawing board and mark down the two important long term trendlines. One of which is going to be breached within a few days. Actually, here is a screenshot for you:

The long term resistance line dates back to the Dec 2013 highs. If this were to be breached, that would strongly suggest that the down wave has completed and would be bullish. The long term support line goes way back to the foot of the big ramp up, when Bitcoin was still just around $10. If that were to be breached, it would suggest that the phase of the grand cycle for which that line was a support is over, at at some point in the future, Bitcoin would need to be testing the 'even grander cycle' support line beneath it, which intersects the support line shown in the screenshot, but dates back to the Nov 2011 low, and is presently hovering around the $100 mark (I amn't suggesting that Bitcoin will go to $100 btw). Also shown in the screenshot is a resistance trend line that has been in force since Jan 6th 2014. What I am doing, is that I am waiting for that to be breached and confirmed before taking a long in the $400 range. Currently that would mean prices of around $470. If it were to occur (I really don't think it will), then I would be watching like a hawk for price action up and around the major resistance trend line above it. If Bitcoin fails to take out that then I would close 100% my position.

Right now, with Bitcoin hovering around $440 on ultra low volume. The only wise investment decision to take is do nothing and wait for a breach of the trendlines for the market to show you unequivocally what it's intentions are.

[knightcoin]

...

The Final Countdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw

[Bazil240]

Guys just found out a major player has just left the game, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC).

Not sure if this will impact the price, however they are the largest bank in China, and the largest bank in the world by assets.

Du Jun, the co-founder and vice president at one of China's leading digital currency exchanges Huobi.com, told Reuters that to move as a severe blow to the industry. .

“We online exchanges as well as the entire industry are facing a serious challenge. Without an incoming cash flow, it's hard to operate an exchange,” Jun stated.

Still currently locked-in @ $360 wall on Bitstamp  

News is approximately 8 Hrs old now and I haven't noticed any movement in the price - perhaps the floor has past?

This is an awesome demonstration in somebody chasing the market ...lolz

I think ..."you are going to miss out biatch "

Hows your emotional state ....lets check in about 6 more hours...  

Wife thinks I'm a bit of a biatch at times too  

Lost my job last year and we had to move back to the UK, just lucky to find out about the bitcoin protocol in August and finally made our first investment. We've been fortunate to have already made a nice return and my Localbitcoins selling is taking off. This is our only form of income at the moment, so we both decided to go all-in of sorts with our Redundancy and Super Annuation/Pension. It's a huge proportion of our savings so just trying to get best deal we can, not sure when I'll be able to work again.

You're right though, have been following Bitcoin news a lot more than usual since we sent the funds over to BStamp  

If we end up acquiring volume @ $480 that's cool, if we manage to acquire @ $360 , even better.

Emotional states are good at the minute, I will certainly feel a bit of relief once we've got our BTC.

I'm newer at this than you are but that sounds like a good mentality to take. If you have the stomach to wait, I would wait for $380. If you want to play it "safer", then I don't think YipYip's plan is a bad one. Again, if you feel unsure about waiting, maybe 50% now, and then the rest at $360 or $500 (whichever comes first)?

[spazzdla]

Looking to buy in the next down turn.. but I never left or plan too.