Bitcoin Forum

So, I was thinking we would fall lower than 6 anyway, and then all this chaos happened, plus I've yet to meet a single user who came because of that TV show. In addition, we've had an overpopulation of short-term bulls lately, remember those polls and threads according to which 8 should be topped by now?

It's hard to model how much money might have been just leveraged in that rally. But I can guess that some people with money shooed away for now, because of the obvious trouble in keeping the up-trend. I could imagine that there isn't enough money waiting to catch a high-volume panic, which we haven't seen in quite a while. And the more people buy high up, the less BTC it would take to drain the funds.

Am I the only one who thinks it looks unstable?

No.

Now you just need nagle and you got all your permabears

Well, thanks to Bitcoinica I must say I no longer believe in a soaring bitcoin value ever again. The leveraged margin trading to counter-balance any overheated situation of a (highly subjectively priced) commodity is causing exactly this very environment - in both directions. Without any long-term price stability however, I'm afraid bitcoin serves no purpose other than a digital footstep of wasted computational powers and energy.

Volatility is what will bring in more traders.... new traders = new usd = price goes up.

Volatility is good for growth, as long as nobody with a lot of bitcoins decides to spike it clear to the ground.  I don't know why anyone would do that.

Edit: Short term, I'm not betting against a drop other than with my long term holdings.  It will take time for new traders to get in, and many traders got burned hard, but they are the permabulls you complain about.

Edit: I was thinking bittenbob included me as a permabear so I did a count Leaving that here instead of the original post, just because.

Since I joined, I have been bull 60% of the time, but bear only 40% of the time. I switched camps four times. I was actually still fairly bullish mid-December.

Bear Vs. Bull  Claws always win.

Is your name Nagle?

Volatility alone won't bring in new traders, predictability does. If you're a fan of quasi-randomness, you stick with the regular lottery - but even there are strategies to maximize your returns.

I was actually short at around $7 when I saw those 30k bitcoin walls pop up at 6.4 and 6.6 or so, with practically nothing to go to $9. So I changed my 2k$ into a long-position with - what I thought - moderate risks involved, and yeah... we all know the story.

You won't see any big players coming into a market like this, and the little $10-100 gamblers won't matter enough to change the name of the game.

Ah, okay. Sorry, misunderstood there. I didn't think a single permabear posting would be significant, so I just assumed you included me in the group. :P

But it made me count how long I was bull and bear, so maybe something was gained from the confusion? ???

I am the most religious bear you will ever meet

roughly 45% of the time

oh jeez nick

deep breaths man

That's just it though.... Lots of inexperienced traders playing with leverage leads to big profit opportunities like yesterday.  The big players are influential enough that they can kick start things.  I'm not a big player, but I've seen enough of this market to expect this kind of behavior.  I did well yesterday and invite that to continue to happen, despite my long term long position.

http://gifsoup.com/imager.php?id=41046&t=o (http://gifsoup.com/view/41046/bear-on-trampoline.html) GIFSoup (http://gifsoup.com/)

DIE!

i agree. we were waiting for that rally for far too long. everyone expected a rocket to the moon with CES, the TV show, and it didn't happen. then there was a huge dump, a veritable bull slaughterhouse. we're still having the burgers. the triple, quadruple top means it's a bear market now.

Dollar's taking a dump now... Risk On.  Good luck stopping the flight from dollars to anything that's got a shot at going up or even just staying level, or dropping slower.

LAWL @ bitcoin being a safer investment than dollars. it's POSSIBLE for bitcoin to be $1 tomorrow.

dollar goes down, gold & silver goes up. bitcoin will remain volatile at a scale much larger than fluctuations in established currencies until its utility increases significantly.

LAWL if you hold significant USDs.  Have fun with that.

lol..piercing gashing dagger horns count for nothing?

maybe he means the dollar bears will win.

I am heavily bearish for the next 30 minutes

If I have to take an impulsive guess, I'd say it needs a miracle within days now. Stall warning. Stall warning. Stall warning...

Longest the market ever managed in this state was more than two weeks in July. Do I have to remind people of the outcome of that glorious idea? Let it go, there is no rally coming, finally stop the mania or the bust will deepen! Even if someone with enough money comes and for whatever unlikely reason starts a rally, what happens once that person runs out? Can everyone simultaneously sell into him?

But it may already be too late, they pushed so far by now that I can't tell anymore.

I don't understand your sentiment. Yes, we had a correction after irrational bullishness. Is the longer term trend broken? Not yet, as I see it. I think of the last 2 weeks as the inverse of the dips we've seen on the way down during july - november.

Already after $5.5 I was expecting a period of correction to kick in but then it went even higher. So no surprise that this happened. I just regret not selling a bit while it was at $7.2 anyway.

Im not usually a bear but I think we need to test $5 more seriously before taking off again.

Translation: Someone please sell me some $5 Bitcoin. LOL

Nah I dont trade too much, Im mostly a mine and hold kind of guy.  I do have a small short position on bitcoinica right now... but its a tiny percentage of my holdings.

This looks like a foolproof way to skim the gamblers. And lay the foundation for sustainable growth. Volatility is poison.

I see no reason to be overly bearish. I can see the reasoning for expecting a bigger correction but it might not be happening. Bitcoin got the single biggest boost since June thanks to the Good Wife episode, now it seems to be spawning a good amount of articles among law professionals. Which is interesting.

This is countered by the Bitcoinica episode and I didn't like the new Mt. Gox AML policy either but these are not a reason to despair. The Bitcoinica episode would've happened eventually anyway, it's actually good that it happened when the market was as bullish as it was. Now the market is more in a neutral situation in my opinion and it's unlikely that it will change to more bearish instead of more bullish.

Attention feeds new attention which means we will see a lot of other news spawn from the Good Wife episode, it's very unlikely that it'll be just a lonely spike amongst nothing. The bearish scenario is that we get more crap like the Bitcoinica event that increases the doubts some people have right now. Overall it's simply more likely that we'll see more good news in the short term future.

Vandroiy was right about the dip but these things are such that no one is always right. Even the best are only right maybe 60% of the time. I feel it's certainly possible that we'll bounce back to low $5's but find it very unlikely that we could go lower than that. The overall bullishness was not countered that hard by the Bitcoinica event.

You are aware that a trend is nothing but a line that happens to be on some chart? If you valued Bitcoin below 5.5 USD weeks ago, what changes your sentiment this much in such a short time?



@Technomage: I see the problem exactly in the fact that a possibly over-the-top bullishness is still there, which unlocks BTC sell-offs when it ends, and the fact that everybody is hyping short-time events that are supposed to bring in speculators ASAP, or something. And post stuff about trend-lines, best on logscale again. It's bound to over-shoot, and now would be a befitting time for a reversal due to the current chaos. (And simply because I think activity is kind of low compared to the volume*price rise we're facing these times)

It's only foolproof if you have tons of bitcoins to throw away (it would take over 1/8 of all bitcoins to make it to 0.01, assuming only visible orders on mtgox).  Sustainable growth is happening... it's just won't be smooth so long as 1% of any other market can move this one by 50%.  Bitcoin doesn't exist independently from the rest of the world's economics.  Some of the best medicines are poisonous in larger doses.