Bitcoin Forum

:O :O
:3

Do it bitcoin. Do it now.

┗(°0°)┛

Enjoy it, won't last long still someone lurking not too far waiting to dump 166+BTC...

457 really aint that big of a deal.

But it does look like we are breaking out of the negative downtrend :)

Downtrend still on, nothing to see here, continue selling and placing 380 and below bids.

 ;D

It's nothing we haven't seen before. The recent highs keep getting lower, the adoption rate has slowed down. The price will probably go back down to the low $400s come Monday.

This is the beginning of a trend reversal. It might not pull through this time but the bull pressure is building  8)

these posts. i love.

the bulls have been gathering for a couple of weeks now, soon they'll all storm and trample those bears and make them hide in their caves and cry for a couple of months and then the whole process will repeat itself again.

https://i.imgur.com/Fk43ENj.png
Almost there  ;D ;D ;D

I don't mean to intrude with my down-home know-nothing perspective, but it seems to me like we're in a period of "flippant uncertainty" where nobody really knows what to do. We're still way behind our regularly scheduled breakout period, but there's so much confidence that we'll break out that people are willing to gamble a little early, maybe out of laziness/impatience. Any movement that happens within the next couple months will probably be (relatively) minor and corrected within a week. $420->$450 is tony bologna.

Perfect time to loan some money on the leverage market and go to the bar.

If everyone was so confident of the break out, then would they not already be going long Bitcoin? After all, we have just broken out from the wave 4 trendline extending back to the $1160 high as per the linear chart (and $30 away from doing so on the log chart).

Ultra low volume on a 'break out' from a 5 month downtrend?

Seems a bit crumbly to me.

I suspect that investors are waiting on China to do something. They are the market makers after all and the future of Bitcoin is hanging by a thread there. Who is going to go long right now when they may wake up on Monday to all the Chinese exchanges being shut-down and a shit-ton of coins making their way to USD markets in order to cash out?

Why would I tie up money during a waiting period (based on previously-played-out cycle patterns)?  From ~$2 to now, we've always had the same kind of cycles where we see a bubble beyond our dreams, relatively slow crumbling of the bubble followed by a quick pop, then a long period of ~, followed by a slow ramp-up, and then another bubble. I really doubt Chinese law matters in the long-term, and I don't find compelling the idea that China would disallow Chinese exchanges from operating but permit the exchange of USD<->BTC acceptable. The Chinese would likely end up defying law, but if they're all going to defy the law, how is it not an over-reaction to sell coins? /drunken speculation

Hey this guy has a good point here. For those of us who are avid traders/investors, it is more beneficial for us to trade other assets during slow periods, than to hodl bitcoins, even if we end up buying back at a higher price.

Unless you can hodl bitcoins while also taking positions in other assets.

Don't forget what you were saying a few months ago Mat, that we would know when the low was in by the fact that it dragged on slowly for plenty of time. How can you have that with the kind of a "break out" you mention? Perhaps the current market is what you were talking about?

I think that the intermediate low is either in, or soon will be in. But if it isn't in, then it could be quite some low indeed....one last huff and gasp from the dying China perhaps, in the form of a shit ton of coin hitting Bitstamp/BTC-e for cash out into USD, which is the whole point of Bitcoin to many Chinese investors anyhow. It was always about capital flight for these guys....and of course gambling. So China to my view aint over yet and until it is, there still hangs that potential for a storm of selling pressure over Bitcoin.

EDIT:

I would also add that on the log-chart (the chart I am using for the 'bigger picture'), there has been no break out. As can be viewed from the chart below, Bitcoin is slap bang in the middle of an intermediate resistance trendline and a long term support trendline, and actually hovering exceedingly close to the long term support trendline when compared with the longer term resistance line:

http://i60.tinypic.com/2rxb4gi.png

Since we are talking about a move from around $10 to $1150, and then back down to $400 range, I think that perhaps the log chart is the one people should be looking at when considering Bitcoin on the longer term?

Lol looks like people even dump for $10 profit. Probably this will be hard to pass these days.... Even though I wrote that I got a good feeling about the future....

People always dumped for $10 profit.

Good move considering you shouldn't even be trading long during a downtrend. It's not just about a $10 profit but avoiding a $100 loss. As soon the false break happens you realize you are no longer in a good trade but are at a peak during a downtrend, looking downwards from the sky.

  From ~$2 to now, we've always had the same kind of cycles where we see a bubble beyond our dreams, relatively slow crumbling of the bubble followed by a quick pop, then a long period of ~, followed by a slow ramp-up, and then another bubble. I really doubt Chinese law matters in the long-term, and I don't find compelling the idea that China would disallow Chinese exchanges from operating but permit the exchange of USD<->BTC acceptable. The Chinese would likely end up defying law, but if they're all going to defy the law, how is it not an over-reaction to sell coins? /drunken speculation
[/quote]

So how high would this next bubble have to go to be 'beyond our dreams'? How high would it have to go to truly astound everyone? Presuming there is another bubble of course :)

And back down again all the way lol

A couple struggle to go up all failed, I think we all know where we're going  ::)

But after weeks we go finally a bit up and greedy people must instantly ruin it and sell for a $10 profit. That sucks... It will be hard to break this downtrend...

It's not funny, who's selling big  ???

Nobody......yet.

But possibly that 300 odd BTC sell order was from the source that piled in yesterday anticipating the 'break through', that never happened cos it wasn't actually a valid trendline that was broken.

Edit: Now they are selling a bit bigger.

 I disagree what bulls? No new money is coming in from anywhere.

$650!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This thread reminds me that we are now more in a flat trend than a down trend.

what if we drop back to $4xx in few weeks?

Not the end of the world.  I'm a buyer at $4xx.  Frankly, right now, I've got cash sitting on the sidelines.  Not selling, certainly, but not buying at $620, either.

You base that on what? Lack of announcement? :)

I am definitely a buyer anywhere in the $400s

I'm buyer anywhere below 600.

At 400's I'm in make everything to get money to buy bitcoins mode

600s and going up soon, but if this bomb will explode first it needs to crash to 300s maybe less and then rise from the ashes and reach 1000s

To be fair, most of us are believers, so we are in at most any point.  I bought some just now at 618.  Every week USD into BTC...

Dollar averaging solves 99% of your forecasting problems.  :)

It's a good strategy.  You're right.  I should probably look at it that way.  I'm probably being greedy...and I might well miss a run.  Might have to backtest some what ifs....

And with everyone wanting coin this cheap, we will never see it happen.

True, so you basically should be incrementally buying now, if your dollar cost average is anywhere above where the price is at now...

True. It's the terrible disadvantage to how the markets correcting themselves.

I don't think we're ever going to see $500 again. Or at least, not below it.

I think we need a silk road event to have us crash to just about $500, whales buy up all the cheap coins, leaving no coins on market, then its bubble time.

That was the bottom looking back or was it 380
Either way right now that position is well into the green so it makes a good mark
Above the old High score but before the next rise although Bitcoin has been sideways for a while I think were in the long run to the next price rise 200 day trendlines etc.

It would be easier to stomach periodic buys right now if that were the case, but my dollar cost average is about $150 under the current price point.

That is a pretty good number that you are working with.   So if I were you, I would just continue to periodically add money to your BTC whenever you can...and then just hold onto the rest that you have.   Especially re-load if you spend your BTC.

Over the long term, the prices right now should be cheap, but we don't know what the future holds...

I thought the same, and that that event would be the Silkroad auction (well, just before knowing the results anyway).
But with that gone, I don't see any news of sorts approaching, specially now that we're kind of China-Ban-Immune...

The next silk road auction?

Unless something gets all the coins back into the hands of the few, we could easily have to wait until the next halving... :/

Unless the whales have already been accumulating, that is.

maybe because theres another 140k coins left for the fbi to auction - until that is over dont expect bitcoin to bubble - and if it does it will come down before the next auction.

If price will crash up or down, depends pretty much of the number of winners AND batch sizes. And batch sizes surely depend on price before the auction, they can't sell 10,000 BTC batches if the price is 10,000 USD.

So I'd say that the destination of the auctioned coins depends on the price.

Next auction won't come until DPR's trial finishes, and that might take a while.
I think some other event such as a ETF opening will happen before that. And before the next halving.

There is always the possibility that they are able to confiscate another drug exchanges coins
The amount would probably be far less significant but if they catch a few who knows we may see another auction.