Bitcoin Forum

This is a screenshot taken from a 1 day log scale chart with EW waves drawn in (dotted lines). As can be seen, Bitcoin is trending in close proximity to two trendlines, with the support trendline having much more significance than the closest resistance trendline. In two days time (Wednesday, a full moon), Bitcoin is going to break before the convergence point of those two lines. If Bitcoin raises above the Lesser Resistance Trendline, and holds there, then it could rise quickly up towards the Major Resistance Trendline which is where the real battle will be fought as to whether the Wave 4 correction that has been with us since early Dec 2013, is confirmed as over or not.

I however don't think that Bitcoin is going to take out and hold above the Lesser Trendline (Jan 2014). I think Bitcoin will be pushed up towards the Jan 2014 trendline, which will draw the overly bullish in for a quick slaughtering, before the market proceeds to break below the Major Support Trendline. If this happens, likely strong resistance points below in my view would be $360 and if/when that fails, around the $300 price ranges, with a spike into upper $200's not being out of the question.

Over the medium term, I think Bitcoin will spend more time trending up than correcting, so I am growing bullish in that sense, but I believe that there will be a nasty downside correction yet to come that nobody will want to be on the wrong side off.

I generally agree.

blah blah blah ...mumbo jumbo...lines and pictures

Let me think ...sub 300 you's iz dreamin  :P

Yeah, I'm gonna laugh my ass off when it goes completely sideways for the next two weeks, and doesn't bounce off either of those trendlines.  Man, that would really fk up the infallable EW TA, wouldn't it?

AGreed we are in this narrow band for the next 3-4 weeks

this is my take:

http://i59.tinypic.com/xnggag.png

http://i59.tinypic.com/15fnj2r.png

Problem is - which is more likely in next 30-45 days: "big money from the west" or "bad news from China?"

You know the answer. Which is why everyone saying we are going to break UP from this wedge (which purely from a technical standpoint more often breaks down) is nothing but WISHFUL THINKING.

China has already broken the lower trendline, albeit with a less than impressive decline thus far.

https://i.imgur.com/I9PwKvM.png

i love the TA experts who draw arrows (LARGE ones) that point in one direction as if that will help move the price in that direction.

So funny.  :D

Yeah sorry real TA experts would have put a precise arrow that is supposed to indicate precisely where the price is going  ::)
My point was only was to only point in a direction (up or down) Sherlock.

Reading your comments months and weeks ago it was clear you were a perma-bull. being a perma bull the previous months --> FAIL
So I'm guessing all of a sudden you became a little bear, you sold NOW expecting to rebuy lower to FINALLY increase your btc holdings. great work. perfect timing. lol


@HeliKopterBen
Drawing lines in that time frame is not of use in my opinion. And I would hardly call that a trend line.

Your own charts show that 420 hasn't always been very strong support. It has been breached many many times. Your linear charts with trend lines on it, one of which started at $1200!

BTCChina seems to be adhering to a different log trend line for now.

https://i.imgur.com/XEJz94u.jpg

If it closes on the daily below 2600 CNY and starts looking weak this trend is invalidated as well.

?

1: I said the line that NOW is at 420, that same line was of course at 400 and a little less month ago.
2: linear?? the chart is in logarithmic scale what are you talking about?

Apologies. The chart is indeed log, but that doesn't stop your lines being 'all over the shop' But your $380-$400-$420 line cannot by any stretch of the imagination be said to represent a strong support line.


Not really. If Bitcoin trends through those two trendlines as if they didn't matter, then the EW analyst would have to conclude that the wave(s) which these trendlines represent have been concluded and we are now looking at trendlines of larger cycles.

TA isn't about pulling the exact future Bitcoin price out of the aether. It is about identifying market entry points that have a  good or high probability of success.

Bitcoin certainly feels as though it is going to do bugger all for weeks. But I have seen this many times before on this wave 4 down cycle. Indeed, the cycle has been epitomised by choppy low volume nothingness, interspersed with sharp brutal corrections that 'nobody seen coming', which are attributed to 'news'), and even sharper counter trend bounces.

matthecat is way to much of a bear to believe anything he says...

I have been 'quoted for truth' many times on this forum but I generally don't get reminded of these quotes for a good reason.

The Major trendline since January 2013, as the OP-Noob ist calling it, is not only broken  by China but also by Bitstamp.
Noobs won`t find that out

https://www.tradingview.com/x/N4CQyEoY/

2 green arrows up right

Since we are here let me ask you your view on


1) Trading sideways for the last 3 days & I expect it to continue 3-4 weeks
2) Uber low volume

Are you going to tell me that this is no a consolidation and a very healthy signal from the market

Bitcoincharts!

Man oh man! Du schämst dich mit dieser Schieße!

Geh zum TradingView.com und versuch noch mal diese Trendlinie zu zeichen du Opfer!

LOL.

Edit: I mean seriously. Even on that screenshot it can be seen that you have totally fkn fluffed that trendline on all three coincidence points.

You're back! Awesome. More beat downs to come.  ;)

I think by Q3 2014 we don't see any recovery

If we can pass slowly, on small volume ...

$459.65 bitfinex

then you will see a very, very, very good push upwards.. If we cant on high volume we will go down..

Very simple...

Short can average up only so much than need to buy back.

We haven't seen capitulation either so very interesting times.. (but this might only happen after the next move up...



Make your plan and execute it...

China has already been factored in, there's nothing China could possibly do to drop the price even more, we are at a level were we were before China ever adopted bitcoin, so the price is now completely controlled by the west.

And the west has not been standing still for the past 6 months, many projects have been launched and millions of dollars have been pumped into ventures and such, which will eventually have an influence on the entire bitcoin project. Thus, the price is expected to go up, not down. You'd be a fool to believe the price would drop sub-300 ever again.

By the looks of those charts i'd say the price would move either up or down very rapidly, my guess is up. Nice charts.

I don't see why. the lines touch perfectly various crucial points in the chart, I have used them during all the bear market once they were enstablished and they made for perfect trades. I guess the most profitable and safe you could have done. they just work.

Excellent chart chessnut! i agree.

@MatTheCat:
If you would have used the chessnut chart you would have nailed the 340 bottom perfectly for example.
These simple "long term" trend lines are the most useful tool in BTC TA in my opinion.


PS: I think taking into account the first two "bubbles" (the ones before 2013) when drawing trend lines is kinda pointless.

agreed.

The point of doing this sort of TA is that you can have two plans. I have two plans (only looking to go long at the moment due to psychological issues with shorting) although I do suspect that it is more likely that I will be buying in at the $300 and perhaps even $200 range (cos market goes down) other than in the upper $400s (cos the market has went up).

Basing your plans on "psychological issues"? I so know how you feel!  ;)

Or perhaps not quite.

When I am long, I will get spooked out dreams and/or intuitions about Bitcoin if long positions are about to take a slaughtering. If I am short Bitcoin, I will feel positive about Bitcoin if my position is about to get a slaughtering and get spooked out about it if my short position is about to hit the jackpot.......and change to a long at the 11th hour and take the subsequent kicking, instead of the jackpot I was lined up for.

I have therefore decided that short or 'inverted' counter intuitive positions are not for me.


My latest Bitcoin dream indicated this much time of sharp downside =  |     |

But followed by this much time of notably larger upside                   = |                                                               |

Thus I favour TA that suggests one way or the other a final low or retest of lows, followed by good period of overall upside, whether that turn out to be as a part of a Primary Wave 5, or as the Wave B part of the Primary Wave 4 correction.

Sometimes I like to look at .. Keltner Channel and Bollinger Bands ...

You are looking at these charts and still saying that rubbish...

You are full of it ..honestly "PERMABEARBOY"

I have never seen such a healthy chart for btc in the last 6 months

Instead of spewing your Kool-Aid out at me and everyone else who hasn't got you on ignore.

Why don't you explain to us all precisely why this chart is so healthy?

its a squeeze that is building ..the kerner channels are inside the Bolinger bands on what was low volume...now its moving to low-mid

Normally this is a trend change event from oscillation -> trending ...either up or down ..but i am keen on up as you know  8)

EDIT : SO this is how you react when the market goes against you with the "Kool AID" comments ... really shows how impartial you are ...You obviously only work in a downtrending market bear boy..I think u will need to have a sleep for the next 6-12 months as the reversal is hear & china is out :D

I am open to the market going either direction. But right now is not a time to take any position, cos the market could go either way. My 'intuition' is that we will go down a bit yet. But if the market is to rise, then I will jump along for the ride for sure.

In the medium term, I am bullish, but feel that their is another low to come before any meaningful upside.

You have a good name. 'Yip Yip' suits you cos that is all that you do. 'Yip Yip Yip Yip Yip' like a hyper dog with a one track mind, hence my reaction with the Kool-Aid comments.

Sure I am a believer....crypto has rewarded me very well for my efforts

Markets go up they go down ..so why would I suddenly stop beliving in the MOVEMENT that is crypto

So as long as you dont think it will fail then long term everyone should be bullish ....our 1 second concentration span that we have in crypto is not the real world of equities investment

Veronica & others were & are textbook losers ....dont worry i will be bringing her name up when we are 1k-5k values

After working in Banking & finance for the last 10 years ...I am totally converted ..every time i use crypto it still gives me a buzz as it is soooo awesome & pure ...so if this belief in something or a technology then sign me up

Kool AId is for the delusional ...I am more of an technology evangelist as I have seen the light

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-IKQBiFilHBA/Ub5UZCKFc_I/AAAAAAAAArM/X5xpuz51KQs/s1600/Dog+Hump's+Man's+Leg.jpg


Crypto aint going away anytime soon and perhaps not ever. But that doesn't mean that Bitcoin is going to be 'it'. It may go a long way. It may one day implode. It may have already gone as far as it is going to go and be imploding in front of our eyes as we scour charts looking for a good long opportunity?

So funny ... Hows your clinical depression going its obvious that you need a laugh at my expense ..Good for you ...