TA 101A With MatTheCat May 13th 2014

[MatTheCat]

This is a screenshot taken from a 1 day log scale chart with EW waves drawn in (dotted lines). As can be seen, Bitcoin is trending in close proximity to two trendlines, with the support trendline having much more significance than the closest resistance trendline. In two days time (Wednesday, a full moon), Bitcoin is going to break before the convergence point of those two lines. If Bitcoin raises above the Lesser Resistance Trendline, and holds there, then it could rise quickly up towards the Major Resistance Trendline which is where the real battle will be fought as to whether the Wave 4 correction that has been with us since early Dec 2013, is confirmed as over or not.

I however don't think that Bitcoin is going to take out and hold above the Lesser Trendline (Jan 2014). I think Bitcoin will be pushed up towards the Jan 2014 trendline, which will draw the overly bullish in for a quick slaughtering, before the market proceeds to break below the Major Support Trendline. If this happens, likely strong resistance points below in my view would be $360 and if/when that fails, around the $300 price ranges, with a spike into upper $200's not being out of the question.

Over the medium term, I think Bitcoin will spend more time trending up than correcting, so I am growing bullish in that sense, but I believe that there will be a nasty downside correction yet to come that nobody will want to be on the wrong side off.

[windjc]

I generally agree.

[YipYip]

blah blah blah ...mumbo jumbo...lines and pictures

Let me think ...sub 300 you's iz dreamin 

[Torque]

Yeah, I'm gonna laugh my ass off when it goes completely sideways for the next two weeks, and doesn't bounce off either of those trendlines.  Man, that would really fk up the infallable EW TA, wouldn't it?

[YipYip]

Yeah, I'm gonna laugh my ass off when it goes completely sideways for the next two weeks, and doesn't bounce off either of those trendlines.  Man, that would really fk up the infallable EW TA, wouldn't it?

AGreed we are in this narrow band for the next 3-4 weeks

[Wandererfromthenorth]

this is my take:

[windjc]

this is my take:





As you can see the line that is at around 420 now has always been very strong support, the only time it went down it was in anticipation of terror from china, and a excellent opportunity to get the cheapest BTC possible before the trend reversal approaching.

Around April 17th we almost had a breakout but we didn't get past the superior trend line (548 back then), but volume was not big enough to signal a true breakout and there still were lots of uncertainties about China.



Situation in China seems better now, with exchanges considering offshore and what not, new recharge options, etc.
We could have had another flash crash one week ago before the deadline, but the catastophic shitstorm just didn't come. 
In order to go break the 420 inferior support line for any significant amount of time it would take a cataclysm of terrible news regarding china that at this point is simply not gonna happen.


And besides, people forget that big money from the west (remember bloomberg listing btc?) could easily replace china (which is gonna find loopholes to stay in the game anyway, if you think chinamen are just gonna say bye bye to bitcoin well think again).

Problem is - which is more likely in next 30-45 days: "big money from the west" or "bad news from China?"

You know the answer. Which is why everyone saying we are going to break UP from this wedge (which purely from a technical standpoint more often breaks down) is nothing but WISHFUL THINKING.

[HeliKopterBen]

China has already broken the lower trendline, albeit with a less than impressive decline thus far.

[smoothie]

i love the TA experts who draw arrows (LARGE ones) that point in one direction as if that will help move the price in that direction.

So funny. 

[Wandererfromthenorth]

i love the TA experts who draw arrows (LARGE ones) that point in one direction as if that will help move the price in that direction.

So funny.  

Yeah sorry real TA experts would have put a precise arrow that is supposed to indicate precisely where the price is going  
My point was only was to only point in a direction (up or down) Sherlock.

Reading your comments months and weeks ago it was clear you were a perma-bull. being a perma bull the previous months --> FAIL
So I'm guessing all of a sudden you became a little bear, you sold NOW expecting to rebuy lower to FINALLY increase your btc holdings. great work. perfect timing. lol


@HeliKopterBen
Drawing lines in that time frame is not of use in my opinion. And I would hardly call that a trend line.

[MatTheCat]

As you can see the line that is at around 420 now has always been very strong support, the only time it went down it was in anticipation of terror from china, and a excellent opportunity to get the cheapest BTC possible before the trend reversal approaching.

Around April 17th we almost had a breakout but we didn't get past the superior trend line (548 back then), but volume was not big enough to signal a true breakout and there still were lots of uncertainties about China.

Your own charts show that 420 hasn't always been very strong support. It has been breached many many times. Your linear charts with trend lines on it, one of which started at $1200!

[Dalmar]

China has already broken the lower trendline, albeit with a less than impressive decline thus far.

BTCChina seems to be adhering to a different log trend line for now.



If it closes on the daily below 2600 CNY and starts looking weak this trend is invalidated as well.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

As you can see the line that is at around 420 now has always been very strong support, the only time it went down it was in anticipation of terror from china, and a excellent opportunity to get the cheapest BTC possible before the trend reversal approaching.

Around April 17th we almost had a breakout but we didn't get past the superior trend line (548 back then), but volume was not big enough to signal a true breakout and there still were lots of uncertainties about China.

Your own charts show that 420 hasn't always been very strong support. It has been breached many many times. Your linear charts with trend lines on it, one of which started at $1200!

?

1: I said the line that NOW is at 420, that same line was of course at 400 and a little less month ago.
2: linear?? the chart is in logarithmic scale what are you talking about?

[MatTheCat]

1: I said the line that NOW is at 420, that same line was of course at 400 and a little less month ago.
2: linear?? the chart is in logarithmic scale what are you talking about?

Apologies. The chart is indeed log, but that doesn't stop your lines being 'all over the shop' But your $380-$400-$420 line cannot by any stretch of the imagination be said to represent a strong support line.

Yeah, I'm gonna laugh my ass off when it goes completely sideways for the next two weeks, and doesn't bounce off either of those trendlines.  Man, that would really fk up the infallable EW TA, wouldn't it?

Not really. If Bitcoin trends through those two trendlines as if they didn't matter, then the EW analyst would have to conclude that the wave(s) which these trendlines represent have been concluded and we are now looking at trendlines of larger cycles.

TA isn't about pulling the exact future Bitcoin price out of the aether. It is about identifying market entry points that have a  good or high probability of success.

Bitcoin certainly feels as though it is going to do bugger all for weeks. But I have seen this many times before on this wave 4 down cycle. Indeed, the cycle has been epitomised by choppy low volume nothingness, interspersed with sharp brutal corrections that 'nobody seen coming', which are attributed to 'news'), and even sharper counter trend bounces.

[djangocoin]

matthecat is way to much of a bear to believe anything he says...

[MatTheCat]

matthecat is way to much of a bear to believe anything he says...

I have been 'quoted for truth' many times on this forum but I generally don't get reminded of these quotes for a good reason.

[segeln]

China has already broken the lower trendline, albeit with a less than impressive decline thus far.

The Major trendline since January 2013, as the OP-Noob ist calling it, is not only broken  by China but also by Bitstamp.
Noobs won`t find that out



2 green arrows up right

[YipYip]

Since we are here let me ask you your view on


1) Trading sideways for the last 3 days & I expect it to continue 3-4 weeks
2) Uber low volume

Are you going to tell me that this is no a consolidation and a very healthy signal from the market

[MatTheCat]

The Major trendline since January 2013, as the OP-Noob ist calling it, is not only broken  by China but also by Bitstamp.
Noobs won`t find that out



2 green arrows up right

Bitcoincharts!

Man oh man! Du schämst dich mit dieser Schieße!

Geh zum TradingView.com und versuch noch mal diese Trendlinie zu zeichen du Opfer!

LOL.

Edit: I mean seriously. Even on that screenshot it can be seen that you have totally fkn fluffed that trendline on all three coincidence points.

[chessnut]

The Major trendline since January 2013, as the OP-Noob ist calling it, is not only broken  by China but also by Bitstamp.
Noobs won`t find that out



2 green arrows up right