Bitcoin Forum

I've found some interesting trends that could indicate a turn into the direction to which BTC is heading
The steady decline is now being replaced by a slow increase. I'll keep an eye on this, when value touch the new trending lines.

Nick.

https://i.imgur.com/OXW3j1Y.png?1

Big bear triangle on logarithmic scale on Chinese exchange Huobi is so much more important...

That's a linear scale on Bitstamp - lol.

I had in mind something else:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/ec2f3nl3y8aprxq/beartriangle.jpg

And the volume is dropping...replay of the end of January?

Actually bitcoin bulls would find this picture to be BEARISH because it implies that bitcoin is growing on a linear scale.

It does... Until the double-exponential rally happens, as it did 4 times now, and which should start soonish, as in early this summer. See if you notice any patterns on this logchart: https://i.imgur.com/60H8pwQ.png

So you're saying that it grows linearly sometimes and then sudden it starts growing exponentially? I think that is false and that the growth is consistently exponential at some degree.

The graph says it all :) It either linearly grows, or linearly declines, but then it does periods of double exponential growth (exponential on a log graph), which all adds up to a simple exponential growth trend.

The price grows in orders of magnitude, not percentage. That's the part that makes it so tricky for most of us, it's so unusual you don't think to look for it. But look at the chart.

The price rises sharply to some new high, then drops to somewhere above the old high, followed by a period of not much happening until it rises again. Assuming the pattern holds for a few more waves at least, it means that, for investors, anything below 1k is cheap and anything above 300 implies a healthy market.

Now what I don't understand from OP is how he can make a linear connection between two different time eras which had a period of double exponential increase inbetween them.

Yes, these two lines I don't understand as well.

Ah technical analyses. This one looks fun :P

So in general we have two completely different opinion based on same graph ?

I think in TA that is quite normal. TA can be good to identify extremes - when prices rise or fall with an extreme slope, but I would never base an investment decision on TA alone.

However based on observation of forum activity I would say that we reached the bottom. There's not much euphoria left. that's a good sign.

ya.ya.yo!

That's what I see in this graph as well.

His lines are only based on two points, two points can always be connected by a straight line.

However the lines are pretty much useless because at the start of the graph the value does not even come close to either line, while later the price is much below the lines, after which it overshoots the line by a huge margin, after which it reaches the end point of the line which is of course aligning because the lines were based on that point in the first place.

So the lines are just that, lines, nothing more.

Although I do agree that the short to medium term prospects are positive, your chart actually implies that we still have to underperform the linear bounds. So we could still "dip" a little more. But then again, unless you have a contract to do a very quick short, it'd probably be a loss.

lol...

I'M STOOPID ME CAN DRAW TRIANGELZ AND LINES!!!  :P

How come everyone around here thinks they can draws lines and triangles based on "wishful" thinking and call it TA. (Like igorr lines)
- There are only a few guys around here who actually know to draw trendlines.
- There are only a few guys around here who can provide good TA analysis along with the trendlines.
- There are only a few guys who get it right >60% of the time.

I'm not one of those guys, but I can believe it to be frustrating for the real experts around here.

My 0.02 satoshi

This triangle is bullish. It is a pennant.

+1

+1

I noticed a pattern:

https://i.imgur.com/71vJXE5.png

There was an increasing slope of support level, which was broken.

I'm not saying it's dropping to the purple line on the bottom but there is nowhere on the chart to look at besides that. It is clueless guesswork to try to find where support will be.

Yes, 100-200 lvl is where i am willing to buy BTC.

But why do you ignore the low in your second support line? Try drawing an actual support, you will see a very convincing rebound now.

If that supposed to be a joke, sorry I missed it then.

The purple dots and lines are drawn based on the 'elbows' of each cycle, meaning where it stopped going sideways and started shooting up. Silk road does not count because it was an outlier caused by an unusual circumstance, placing a flashcrash in a very odd location, and only lasted for one day. I do not use silk road data in any of my charts.

you could use the same trend with the peaks also. in that case the trend was broken in December

The trendline you drew was the theoretical trendline for bitcoin price, based on MtGox data.
However, because of the Gox fiat withdrawal issue, the previous bubble didn't fully deflate to about 30$.
And then the Chinese buying spree (one time event) distorted the trendline (it shot up too soon).
If China gets completely out of the picture (like having bitcoins would mean to be an enemy of the state),
then this bubble may completely deflate and touch the purple trendline around 150$.

Ok understood, but that could also mean a return to the previous (flatter) angle, in case rally starts from these current levels.

If it drops to 150 and rallies from there, that would mean a negative inclination for the current leg, something that has never happened so far, and that would definitely signal a fundamental decline in adoption rate - something that is just not there.

ta doesnt work if everyone expects it to work  :-\

That's exactly when it works. Markets - all markets - are best simulated by a running herd of brainless animals (no offense to each particular animal) - you have to guess where the herd will turn next to make most profit. If there are some signs on the ground that usually make the herd turn, then your task is to read those signs and plan your turns before the rest. One who turns last, gets eaten :)

I don't think you can actually short bitcoin.

Huh? Yes you can.

http://www.bitfinex.com/
http://btc.sx/

And btc-e also does 4:1 margin trading I believe.

Man, looking at this chart really makes you wonder if we are in total denial that bitcoin is dying, soon to be a footnote in history. Then again, this could be a repeat of April's top, fall, dead cat bounce, sideways for awhile the BOOM  - looks very similar, no?

Do you need to apply for margin or do they give it to everyone?

I think this sounds very risky to both the user and the exchange.