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nick32768 (OP)
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May 15, 2014, 09:49:28 AM
 #1

I've found some interesting trends that could indicate a turn into the direction to which BTC is heading
The steady decline is now being replaced by a slow increase. I'll keep an eye on this, when value touch the new trending lines.

Nick.

https://i.imgur.com/OXW3j1Y.png?1

Markos
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May 15, 2014, 10:13:56 AM
 #2

Big bear triangle on logarithmic scale on Chinese exchange Huobi is so much more important...
greco
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May 15, 2014, 10:15:32 AM
 #3

Big bear triangle on logarithmic scale on Chinese exchange Huobi is so much more important...

That's a linear scale on Bitstamp - lol.
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May 15, 2014, 10:23:49 AM
 #4

I had in mind something else:



And the volume is dropping...replay of the end of January?
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May 15, 2014, 10:27:24 AM
 #5

I've found some interesting trends that could indicate a turn into the direction to which BTC is heading
The steady decline is now being replaced by a slow increase. I'll keep an eye on this, when value touch the new trending lines.

Nick.




Actually bitcoin bulls would find this picture to be BEARISH because it implies that bitcoin is growing on a linear scale.
piramida
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May 15, 2014, 10:44:00 AM
 #6

Actually bitcoin bulls would find this picture to be BEARISH because it implies that bitcoin is growing on a linear scale.

It does... Until the double-exponential rally happens, as it did 4 times now, and which should start soonish, as in early this summer. See if you notice any patterns on this logchart:

i am satoshi
TERA
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May 15, 2014, 11:03:28 AM
 #7

Actually bitcoin bulls would find this picture to be BEARISH because it implies that bitcoin is growing on a linear scale.

It does... Until the double-exponential rally happens, as it did 4 times now, and which should start soonish, as in early this summer. See if you notice any patterns on this logchart:
So you're saying that it grows linearly sometimes and then sudden it starts growing exponentially? I think that is false and that the growth is consistently exponential at some degree.
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May 15, 2014, 11:51:06 AM
 #8

Actually bitcoin bulls would find this picture to be BEARISH because it implies that bitcoin is growing on a linear scale.

It does... Until the double-exponential rally happens, as it did 4 times now, and which should start soonish, as in early this summer. See if you notice any patterns on this logchart:
So you're saying that it grows linearly sometimes and then sudden it starts growing exponentially? I think that is false and that the growth is consistently exponential at some degree.

The graph says it all Smiley It either linearly grows, or linearly declines, but then it does periods of double exponential growth (exponential on a log graph), which all adds up to a simple exponential growth trend.

i am satoshi
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May 15, 2014, 12:06:55 PM
 #9

The price grows in orders of magnitude, not percentage. That's the part that makes it so tricky for most of us, it's so unusual you don't think to look for it. But look at the chart.

The price rises sharply to some new high, then drops to somewhere above the old high, followed by a period of not much happening until it rises again. Assuming the pattern holds for a few more waves at least, it means that, for investors, anything below 1k is cheap and anything above 300 implies a healthy market.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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May 15, 2014, 12:07:36 PM
 #10

Actually bitcoin bulls would find this picture to be BEARISH because it implies that bitcoin is growing on a linear scale.

It does... Until the double-exponential rally happens, as it did 4 times now, and which should start soonish, as in early this summer. See if you notice any patterns on this logchart:
So you're saying that it grows linearly sometimes and then sudden it starts growing exponentially? I think that is false and that the growth is consistently exponential at some degree.

The graph says it all Smiley It either linearly grows, or linearly declines, but then it does periods of double exponential growth (exponential on a log graph), which all adds up to a simple exponential growth trend.
Now what I don't understand from OP is how he can make a linear connection between two different time eras which had a period of double exponential increase inbetween them.
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May 15, 2014, 12:12:21 PM
 #11


Now what I don't understand from OP is how he can make a linear connection between two different time eras which had a period of double exponential increase inbetween them.

Yes, these two lines I don't understand as well.

i am satoshi
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May 15, 2014, 12:16:29 PM
 #12

Ah technical analyses. This one looks fun Tongue

So in general we have two completely different opinion based on same graph ?
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May 15, 2014, 01:18:14 PM
 #13

Ah technical analyses. This one looks fun Tongue

So in general we have two completely different opinion based on same graph ?

I think in TA that is quite normal. TA can be good to identify extremes - when prices rise or fall with an extreme slope, but I would never base an investment decision on TA alone.

However based on observation of forum activity I would say that we reached the bottom. There's not much euphoria left. that's a good sign.

ya.ya.yo!

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zimmah
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May 15, 2014, 03:23:01 PM
 #14

Actually bitcoin bulls would find this picture to be BEARISH because it implies that bitcoin is growing on a linear scale.

It does... Until the double-exponential rally happens, as it did 4 times now, and which should start soonish, as in early this summer. See if you notice any patterns on this logchart:
So you're saying that it grows linearly sometimes and then sudden it starts growing exponentially? I think that is false and that the growth is consistently exponential at some degree.

The graph says it all Smiley It either linearly grows, or linearly declines, but then it does periods of double exponential growth (exponential on a log graph), which all adds up to a simple exponential growth trend.

That's what I see in this graph as well.
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May 15, 2014, 03:28:13 PM
 #15


Now what I don't understand from OP is how he can make a linear connection between two different time eras which had a period of double exponential increase inbetween them.

His lines are only based on two points, two points can always be connected by a straight line.

However the lines are pretty much useless because at the start of the graph the value does not even come close to either line, while later the price is much below the lines, after which it overshoots the line by a huge margin, after which it reaches the end point of the line which is of course aligning because the lines were based on that point in the first place.

So the lines are just that, lines, nothing more.
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May 16, 2014, 04:07:06 AM
 #16

Although I do agree that the short to medium term prospects are positive, your chart actually implies that we still have to underperform the linear bounds. So we could still "dip" a little more. But then again, unless you have a contract to do a very quick short, it'd probably be a loss.
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May 16, 2014, 07:01:21 AM
 #17

So we have two completely different opinion based on same graph ?

lol...

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May 16, 2014, 07:18:06 AM
 #18

I'M STOOPID ME CAN DRAW TRIANGELZ AND LINES!!!  Tongue

How come everyone around here thinks they can draws lines and triangles based on "wishful" thinking and call it TA. (Like igorr lines)
- There are only a few guys around here who actually know to draw trendlines.
- There are only a few guys around here who can provide good TA analysis along with the trendlines.
- There are only a few guys who get it right >60% of the time.

I'm not one of those guys, but I can believe it to be frustrating for the real experts around here.

My 0.02 satoshi

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May 16, 2014, 12:19:24 PM
 #19

I had in mind something else:



And the volume is dropping...replay of the end of January?

This triangle is bullish. It is a pennant.
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May 16, 2014, 01:31:40 PM
 #20

I'M STOOPID ME CAN DRAW TRIANGELZ AND LINES!!!  Tongue

How come everyone around here thinks they can draws lines and triangles based on "wishful" thinking and call it TA. (Like igorr lines)
- There are only a few guys around here who actually know to draw trendlines.
- There are only a few guys around here who can provide good TA analysis along with the trendlines.
- There are only a few guys who get it right >60% of the time.

I'm not one of those guys, but I can believe it to be frustrating for the real experts around here.

My 0.02 satoshi
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