Bitcoin Forum

First off, I have been a subscriber myself for a considerable time, and it hasn’t always been like this. Second, I do not want to attack S3052, but when I see the bullshit the public and subscribers get served, I just have to call it out.

Why I am no longer subscribed is that S3052’s analysis devolved 1) into a weekly newsletter with updated charts and more importantly, 2) almost pyramid-like zero sum CRASH or RALLY short-term updates.

The subscribers obviously have a disproportionate influence over the market, because they act all at once and the market is already small. Subscribers are also likely to have a bunch of BTC due to the cost of 5 BTC/month.

Now, what happens when he issues a short-term CRASH alert is that people race to sell WITHOUT REVIEWING THE ANALYSIS because they want to be first. So when his E-Mail hits, all subscribers try to sell before each other, creating what we have seen.

So, what is the problem?

The problem, or the - almost a kind of scam – is that a) subscribers only sell to buy back immediately at lower levels, so the last one loses out and b) the public gets spammed with suggestive manipulation AFTER the subscribers have sold.

I have already seen this multiple times as a subscriber myself, and it is despicable.

Solution: Either make your analysis completely public or completely private. If you share analysis to influence the public for your subscribers’ gains and make money off it, I see a huge moral issue.

I don't see any problem with that...

Further, arguments like this have been dealt with over and over on these forums and throughout human history. I bet eventually we will find out you are whining because you lost money. So what is the real purpose of my post?

S3052, my advice is not to make public announcements that you've made private updates.  This most recent public update just looks like a reaction to your subscribers/the market not reacting as strongly as you had hoped to your private update and private update announcement.  I don't mean any disrespect, but that's just the way it comes off.

I didn’t, the rate is above my purchase price and secondly, I sold over 5.9. And now GTFO with your Ad Hominems.

I don’t want to argue with your libertarian "might makes right market manipulation is cool with me" logic. I am sure you do not agree with many of my morals. There is a moral issue when someone says he is an expert and then advises the public only to make his subscribers profit because the information is then biased, i.e. not descriptive, but suggestive. There is also a moral issue when an analysis consists of a race to act upon it first without actually reading it.

Why, so he can just serve the public the same thing but without them even knowing that it’s just for the subscribers to profit off? That would be even worse in my view.

Why I am primarily posting this is to warn both subscribers and the public from getting sucked into what I have detailled in my OP, as it can lead to losing money.

Listen, philosophically, and in an ideal world, I agree with you, but this is speculation, and this is the real world with real people who aren’t all on the same level to see through all BS, and they won’t ever be.  If you want to debate this stuff, we can take it into the Politics forum.

There is a reason market manipulation is a crime, and while I don’t think the actual analysis is manipulation at all, the dynamic of short term updates and subscribers have developed pyramid-like traits among their own dynamic to react upon them, and I believe that S3052 should be made aware of it if he isn’t yet (which I find hard to believe). Plus of course the "public updates" moral issue in which he basically suggests to the public to give his subscribers money.

How about another suggestion? For the PR, S3052 could make private analysis and NOT publish it for a week or two, then publish and evaluate the advice he gave after the situation has changed.

I don't agree with the moral stance - I don't think anyone posts his predictions here before he made his move - but I do agree that the dynamics of market reactions to S3052 predictions is an interesting subject.  My latest theory is that the "price supporter" reads S3052.

IMO its pretty akin to insider trading.

Every analysis we do, be it for subscribers only or for the public contains unbiased analysis based on technical analysis methods, and this can be verified by the charts we display. If anyone disagrees with our analysis, they are all free to post their alternative.

Your just the first lemming that starts running after you yell fire, then stops at the cliffs edge and take 5 coins for the "flight" down...

Im sure your not listening to all your own "advice"

Self fullfilling prophacy...

That is all technical analysis is. In all cases, markets, etc. Ever. Period.

If you want to stop it, then the best method is to ridicule. Target the people who propound bullshit, belittle those who follow them.

I guarantee you hate triumphs over ignorance every time. We just need to muster the collective will.

It is not a science, does not claim to be a science, you cannot use scientific methods to disprove it. It is more of a religion.
Accordingly, the appropriate method for dealing with people who peddle or buy into the stuff is persecution.

Persecute the fuckers and drive them from here!!!

Yes, and I have no problem with him providing the best information to PREDICT the ups and downs.

I DO have a problem when he starts CAUSING the ups and downs.

Free is good.

How do I sign up for this market predictor that rises and falls based upon the e-mail sent out?

Sounds like an e-mail a friend of mine was signed up for with stock advice. He would wait for the e-mail to say what stock would go up or down, then he would immediately buy or sell. Then everyone else who received the e-mail would do the same and he would buy or sell at a slight profit.

I like profit.

Please point me to this source of profit.

And I would remind you that just because you can do a thing does not make it right.

This, like all the similar manipulations we see in stocks, creates big waves that are profitable to people who have the advantage, at the expense of everyone else.

If this was a casino, fine, have your fun.

I do not want to play in this stupid scam.  I want to use BitCoin for things that aren't a zero-sum game of trying to screw the other guy just a little bit faster to make a profit at his expense.

I want to use BitCoin to CREATE VALUE, and until it's established well enough to resist this kind of manipulation, this insider trading scam is screwing it up for the rest of us.

Might makes reality and Bitcoin is a very powerful tool. No authority besides the trading parties involved can unilaterally convey how Bitcoin should and should not be traded. If restrictions are instilled on the current marketplaces, new and freer ones will pop up in its place.

People are free to trade as they please in the Bitcoin world. We better start getting used to it.

All you can do is attempt to share your culture and what you feel should be done in hopes that others may agree.

If you feed the monster, it grows larger and is harder to move.


It jumped in June to $30 because there were a small amount of people throwing in some money.

Now it is harder to have such huge jumps because there are more people in the market throwing in their money.


The same market exists for gold. You can subscribe to newsletters telling you which way gold is headed. The only difference is that a lot of people own gold so the result is not so dramatic.

If you do not like the manipulation, encourage more people to come and manipulate for their own gain.

Get out of my thread, Atlas. You should be contained to Politics & Society where your pseudo-philosophical babble belongs to.

Thanks.

I think you are mistaking me for somebody else.

The issue here is some people believe its a crime to value and trade commodities based on needs and wants other than their own. They believe it's irrational to want to use Bitcoins just to trade and play with when they just want to use them as currency. Supply-and-demand makes it more convenient for them to buy and sell from these people with conflicting missions. They don't like that.

They consider it a question of morality. They believe Bitcoins being only used for their needs and wants is a universal good.

I consider it only a matter of emotional preference.

Insider trading for stocks is a crime. Do you think it ought no to be?

It's a crime for ordinary men. Insider Trading laws only exist to allow powerful men to have a monopoly on insider information such as politicians and higher businessmen.

As far as I can see, it's only a crime if you can't get away with it.

In the future of crypto-currency and decentralized security exchanges, insider trading will be the norm, the standard. Nothing will be able to stop it.

It's a part of nature. Some people will always have access to information that others don't. Some kids are read to and recieve a grand education, others recieve less formal education and choose to specialize in other things. One is not neccessarily worse off but just has to take a different path. I see nothing bad about that.

This is Atlas, 17-year old who has an obsession over Ayn Rand. What do you expect, you communist? ;D

Atlas, you can go back to the Politics forum now and spare us your gibberish. It was much better without. Please.

Consider this scenario:

An oil well estimated to yield 10 billion gallons of oil is found off of the coast of Texas.

Oil traders hear about this and immediately start selling their shares of oil with the knowledge that the extra supply will lower the price of oil in the long term.

As they sell, the price of oil drops.

As the price of oil drops, gasoline prices drop.

You benefit by paying less at the pump for gas.

This, from not a drop of oil being extracted.

Would you forbid this type of speculation from happening?

As soon as I would restrict oil owners from trading and using their oil as they please. Do the oil traders own their oil or is it owned by a power higher than themselves? That's the true question.

As for your scenario, I don't see who is harmed involuntarily. Everybody who deals in oil accepts it as a volatile commodity; otherwise they won't be in business for long.

If Gavin's actions or knowledge would have a significant impact on bitcoin's future exchange rate, then we have a far bigger problem then him doing insider trading. So yes, its absolutely fine if Gavin trades, he wouldnt or at least shouldnt have any private knowledge that will affect exchange rates.

If Gavin's actions or knowledge would have a significant impact on Bitcoin, I imagine a network fork would inevitably happen and the original Bitcoin network going the way of SolidCoin.

We need to think in terms of results.

He knows what's best for Bitcoin and whoever disagrees is irrational.

Atlas is back!!!! :D

I tend to agree, but I see it as inevitable. Bitcoin being what it is, completely unregulated and its value for 99.9% determined by speculation, I cant see how it will ever obtain price stability. I dont like that, but I cant see a solution for it either, so if I were a speculator Id either sign up for his newsletter or start my own if I had enough funds to make sure my initial predictions came true.

If people truly want price stability, it will come in one way or another without compromising Bitcoin as a whole. I mean, all it takes is the majority of traders sticking to one price while they reflect the will of the people buying it.

Right now it's just not important to enough people. That's not a problem from what I can see.

Maybe, but its not unregulated, and you will probably hate me for saying this, but it does have central banks that ensure some stability. Moreover the volume on  forex is perhaps much larger than the underlying economies, but that not what matters. Buying and selling the same dollar 1000x per day does not cause price swings. What matters is how much of the currency or commodity is owned by speculators, and in that sense, forex is minor compared to the underlying economies. In oil the % would be bigger, gold I would guess even bigger than that and bitcoin almost a theoretical maximum. See a pattern?


No it doesnt. Speculation adds liquidity. Some speculation is good, and really needed, but when you get to the point where speculator ownership completely dwarfs the underlying economy, it doesnt do anything like stabilizing.

Agreed.

Nobody manipulate Bitcoins! Everyone just trade what you need when you need it for purchases!


Then one day cascius or bit-pay need 100,000 BTC for some project they are working on or an investment into a new technology and the price skyrockets to $1,000/BTC as they have to pay whatever people ask for with such a limited supply at the exchange.

Is stability relevant if it isn't relevant to most people trading the respective commodity?

Id say it is if most people dont use it for anything other than speculation because of its instability. Nice catch 22.

Then the speculation will inevitably fulfill the desire of stability.

As for the "Tragedy of the Common", that's easily resolved by ownership of the resources involved: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLirNeu-A8I

People aren't going to let their Bitcoins go to nothing if they value the product itself and people do.

No.  I agree that speculation serves a valuable purpose.  I'm arguing against manipulation.  Perhaps it is intentional, or perhaps it is simply a flock of fools fulfilling the prophecy of their leader.  It doesn't matter which.

I'm not asking to ban or regulate anything.  Regulations cannot end this behavior.  They only make it more perverse.

I am simply appealing to reason:  Realize that creating coordinated mass movements creates a little profit for a few, but damages the future of BitCoin as a whole.  We have an opportunity to create something much bigger than day to day profits.

Instead of creating artificial waves to exploit, speculate on BitCoin's future.  Buy the rumor, sell the news.  Create your own charts.  Analyze web boards.  I don't care what your strategy is.  Just stop participating in the coordinated attacks.

In my personal opinion, if a person is paying for advise from someone on speculation then they are being manipulated, not the market.  If that person's advise was so good then they would be using their time to make money and not creating a newsletter and selling it.  It is not their trading advise that is valuable.  It is their salesmanship of their newsletter that is valuable.

People can waste their money anywhere they want.

When 99.9% of the value (/ownership) is speculators, people dump bitcoin because other speculators dump it and buy bitcoin because others are buying. Or because they expect others to dump/buy.


I never even mentioned concentration of ownership. Speculators moving like a herd is not that different than concentrated ownership.


True, but were is the incentive to move the price only for moving it?  And a higher exchange rate, aka as a new bubble -unless something more fundamental changes first- will also attract more speculators. Bitcoin could grown 10.000x and it would still represent next to nothing in the world economy.

Anyway, this has been debated to death now I think. And AFACIT, the facts speak for themselves.
Lets see if it changes over the next years, but Im not holding my breath.

Here's how my father dealt with this.  It worked quite well for him (unlike most of his other strategies).

1. Subscribe
2. Wait for market reaction, ensure there was an overreaction(there usually is)
3. Do the opposite
4. Profit

Once enough people do this, or start to put limit orders to catch the peak/trough, the negative effects will die out.  Profit will die out too unless the analysis is sound.

Depends on how you define concentration of ownership. The amount of speculators vs "traders" (trading goods and services for btc) or how btc's are divided among owners. In the first sense, yeah obviously, but I meant the second when I spoke of concentration of ownership and I thought you did too. There might be some people who own a large % of all btcs, but I dont see that as a problem or having a big effect either way. I thought you did, but perhaps I misunderstood you


I meant fundamentals as in bitcoin becoming more mainstream. I didnt mean technical improvements in the software.

First, sorry for being a dick earlier. It was 8am here and I hadn't even gone to sleep yet. Anyway, I am still very confused as to why you see a moral issue. I see no moral issue at all. The purpose of speculation is to make money, right? I can think of no other reason to speculate. We can argue the value of speculation to a community/society, but that is a different argument.

S3052, the people who subscribe to his analysis, and the "public speculators" are all trying to make money. Everyone playing the speculation game is trying to make money, everything they do will be with this purpose. This is evident to all involved, there is no information disparity.

Congratulations, S3052.

Posters here appear unwilling to subject themselves to the merited level of contempt and ridicule. Fools.
I will mock you as others lead you to slaughter.

I'm going to sound bad for a change.

Yes, S3052 offers standard technical analysis which has been documented extensively in the trading bibliography.

Yes, technical analysis can look at a chart and give you reasons to be both bullish and bearish at any time (OK, most of the times).

Yes, S3052's subscribers probably hold relatively large amounts of BTC, since they're paying 5 BTC per month.

Yes, many of those subscribers are unstable emotionally young geeks that can react collectively with a mass mentality and, with their large BTC positioning can affect price significantly.

Yes, this is exactly the same reason why the Uncertainty Principle was established, in short saying that when the observer is "too big" in relation to the observed object, the observation alters the properties of the object.

Yes, the BTCUSD market is illiquid by all measures (compare 130K daily volume to the hundreds of billions in stock markets, or a few trillions in Forex).

Yes, for the above reasons, however honest S3052 can be in technical analysis, whatever is written in each newsletter can have an avalanche effect on the price.

Yes, this same thing has been going on for hundreds of years in every illiquid market.

So, what's new?

I would think that most readers here should give thanks for the education that they receive in markets and trading (and yes, this means taking the losses), which they probably would not be able to get anywhere else, instead of trying to put the blame on someone who tries to offer their obviously solid experience in technical analysis within the context of an immature yet market.

If you are looking for immoral things, I will offer one scenario to you, which hasn't been written explicitly in this thread: BitcoinUserXXX wants to buy 10,000 BTC for cheap, and bribes S3052 with 10% of this amount to over-emphasize a bearish outlook in the next newsletter, so the price will fall massively, say 20% and the purchase can be made with a much better price. I guess this (or something similar) is what the OP is trying to suggest. It would be immoral if there was an absolute certainty that the price would actually fall more than 10%. But there is no such certainty. It would be just another gamble, and I would not rush to assume that S3052 would be attracted to such a deal, as there is no guarantee that it will work. Bull traps and short squeezes can happen any time in such illiquid markets.

TL;DR If you're losing money, blame it on yourself. It is the best possible conclusion you can make and one of the cornerstone concepts in any kind of trading.

You're saying that he was the one that caused the price to go so down? I call BS. Here's my reasons for this:

- S5032 is mostly bullish in his updates. He was bullish in EVERY update until the last one. So it's safe to assume that many people bought/gone long back then, at price levels 5.5 - 6.2.
- Even with his bullishness market clearly stopped rallying, and the Starfish Rally Blocker (tm) appeared. This caused the market to go the other way. S5032 noticed it and issued an short term update, but he sure wasn't the only one to notice this (I've gone short big time before he even posted the update)
- After the last update, there was some big sell offs, that we can PARTIALLY credit to the update, but not completely. Subscribers saw the update AND current market conditions, so they acted on it.

The update accelerated the down movement, not caused it!

S3052 claims to predict the movements - the congratulations seem quite adequate.

In that case - yes. But there are unite a few people around here that seem to think that he is "the manipulator" and his analysis moves the market in whatever direction he wants it to, which is BS.

Technicial analysys is the one. Not always adequate. You are patalogic bull. Your recent change of short term to DOWN was two or three weeks after it was obviously went to down. I dont say about your trend markers during Jul-Nov downtrend.

And manipulation is the two. The spikes in a way of your "prediction" are happened after minutes of mail with update received.

So the scheme of insider trading is obvious:

1. Open position
2. Issue short term update
3. Take profit

This does not depend whether you issued correct prediction or not. Looks like most of subscribers are stupid and just follow "predictions" blindly.

This is actually no longer a technicial task of prediction, but competition who will be the first in reading your update.

Fuck this.

That is how all technical analysis works.

Not in such volumes.

Market needs other analysts to get this manipulator fuck out of his throne.

Waveaddict is doing a great job in my opinion.  He has told me many times to be disciplined and that sometimes the best move is to stay out of the market.  No crazy RALLY or CRASH short term updates over here.

I know, I subscribed for both S3052 and waveaddict. And fuck the 1st one. Let him to choke with his newsletter.

I agree with you.
The bitcoin market is small, but way to big for my analysis to move the market in any significant way. The forecast only works if the analysis is spot on. I have observed  that if my forecast is wrong, the market tells me quickly.
Fortunately my analysis is more right that wrong.

It's probably been a reaction to all the haters, but you sure have grown much more cocky in the year+ I've been observing you S3052.  You should consider slowing your roll a little before you make a big slip.

Thanks for the feedback. I have to admit that I got a bit too emotional...


EDIT. And you are also right that it is normal to have some haters. And I have observed that these appear typically around major changing points.

Every single observing (and otherwise participatory) entity manipulates all the time whether it observes the manipulation or not.  This is the basis of the creation of reality, if the observer is the creator, and that is precisely what economic markets model, albeit at a level abstracted above the physical universe (Of course, it is still technically physical, because it consists of information, and information is subject to the laws of physics).  I predict that economics will be the proverbial foot-in-the-door to the next quantum jump in virtualization of existence (it is related to Kaballah also, but I do not yet have the sufficient knowledge of the occult to accurately explain my thoughts on this at this point).

"Do as thou Wilt shall be the whole of the Law -- Love is the Law:  Love under Will".

I expect many would like to Know whether you Will Dare to (pretty please?) Be Silent.

-MarkM- (Grand Poohbah of the AntiBobulated ComBobuMat.)

+1

I have my Official, Divine, All-Inclusive Excuse as well.

Perhaps.  I see enlightenment not as anything to obtain, but as a beginning on a path toward universal altruism.  It is literally the most challenging and difficult and yet rewarding path in existench.

S3052 You can bark at me for my hard English, but I want to ask an honest question - did you yesterday have made these large purchases? Please answer honestly .. I gathered a few big players, I would not say they are long or short, but yesterday they were specifically not doing ​​purchases or sales. I watched. Usually, after some time on the chart appears the change. (after reports of players). But this time - no message = no movement. Like a week ago. Just a few big purchases. And the silence....
 I just thought that everyone would be interested to know. And if there is trading only 2 sides - you and we, then it was much worse than I thought before... It's time to "put the points on the "i"

is the time come also to horizontal line draw "t"?

No, this expression means roughly "to clarify, to solve all problems"

I was just making fun.  I think the phrase you originally intended to use may have been, "dot the 'i's and cross the 't's" ...

But I could be entirely mistaken.

:D understood. It is amazing. How many different dialects .. When translating from English, I've adapted, learned "in mind" to change the meaning of words. but on the contrary - it's hard .. ;D

I have to disagree with the premise that S3052 does not influence the Bitcoin market. I will share my personal experience. I am not a subscriber, but I do follow S3052 on this forum,  http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/ (http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/) and http://chart.ly/ (http://chart.ly/). Now over the last 30 days my own Bitcoin trades have amounted to 2% of the volume on the Canadian Bitcoin exchange https://www.cavirtex.com/ (https://www.cavirtex.com/). Was I influenced by S3052?  Yes. Was that the only factor? No. If one individual who is not even a subscriber can account for 2% of a not insignificant Bitcoin market, it is not at all unreasonable to conclude that the only analyst that consistently publishes Bitcoin market analysis does influence the market.

Now S3052 provides a very valuable service to this community, and I am sure that subscribers receive excellent value for their money provided the information is used correctly. Technical Analysis based upon the Elliot Wave Theory is ultimately about probabilities, as there is always more than one possible interpretation of a chart. A good Technical Analyst only needs to be right more often than not in order to provide a valuable service; however those receiving the advice whether subscribers or not need to understand the foundation behind the analysis and also the impact of the analysis on the market before making a trading decision.

Does S3052 influence the Bitcoin market? Yes
Does S3052 provide a very valuable service to subscribers and non subscribers alike? Yes

Pretty much the last nail in the coffin of this thread