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Other => Politics & Society => Topic started by: bryant.coleman on June 03, 2014, 01:33:57 PM



Title: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 03, 2014, 01:33:57 PM
I am starting a new thread to discuss the demographic changes for the world population. Will discuss the birth rates, death rates, fertility rates, as well as the natural population growth.

Also, the results of the latest national censuses will be posted here.  ;D


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: niothor on June 03, 2014, 01:38:13 PM
A thread about bitcoin adoptions for different countries , age of users , and daily use would be far more interesting :).


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 03, 2014, 02:28:23 PM
A thread about bitcoin adoptions for different countries , age of users , and daily use would be far more interesting :).

There are several of them already here in Bitcointalk.

OK.... my first post.

Demography of Russia for January-April 2014.

Total number of births: 619,555 (increase of 1.6%)
Total number of deaths: 647,824 (decrease of 2.4%)

Total natural population growth: -28,269

Biggest increases in birth rate: Chukotka (+22.9%), Altai Republic (+9.0%), Sakhalin (+7.7%), Tyumen (+7.2%).
Biggest decreases in birth rate: Novgorod (-9.5%), Nenetskyi (-8.7%), Tver (-5.7%).

Biggest increases in death rate: Republic of Crimea (+9.3%), Amur (+7.8%), Sevastopol Gorsovet (+6.3%).
Biggest decreases in death rate: Sakhalin (-9.7%), Arkhangelsk (-9.7%), Tver (-9.5%).


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Este Nuno on June 03, 2014, 06:15:51 PM
A thread about bitcoin adoptions for different countries , age of users , and daily use would be far more interesting :).

There are several of them already here in Bitcointalk.

OK.... my first post.

Demography of Russia for January-April 2014.

Total number of births: 619,555 (increase of 1.6%)
Total number of deaths: 647,824 (decrease of 2.4%)

Total natural population growth: -28,269

Biggest increases in birth rate: Chukotka (+22.9%), Altai Republic (+9.0%), Sakhalin (+7.7%), Tyumen (+7.2%).
Biggest decreases in birth rate: Novgorod (-9.5%), Nenetskyi (-8.7%), Tver (-5.7%).

Biggest increases in death rate: Republic of Crimea (+9.3%), Amur (+7.8%), Sevastopol Gorsovet (+6.3%).
Biggest decreases in death rate: Sakhalin (-9.7%), Arkhangelsk (-9.7%), Tver (-9.5%).

How do these stats compare with the overall trends for Russia? Is Russia a declining population?

Also are those states with the largest increases in birth rate culturally different than the majority Russian population? Are there trends leading to towards different cultural groups becoming a new majority in Russia? If you're in tune with Russia at all, how does the population feel about this if it's the case?


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 04, 2014, 03:35:01 AM
How do these stats compare with the overall trends for Russia? Is Russia a declining population?

The Russian population is naturally growing, ever since 2013. (During the first few months, there will be a natural decline, but there will be an increase in births during the summer months).

Also are those states with the largest increases in birth rate culturally different than the majority Russian population? Are there trends leading to towards different cultural groups becoming a new majority in Russia? If you're in tune with Russia at all, how does the population feel about this if it's the case?

The population in Chechnya and Daghestan is increasing much faster than the rest of Russia. But they constitute only around 2.8% of the total population, so they have no chances of becoming the majority in the next 500 years.

Ethnic Russians are right now some 82% of the population, and the proportion seems to be stable, unlike the population of the majority ethnic groups in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 04, 2014, 04:34:55 AM
Demography of Ukraine, for the January-March 2014 period.

Total number of births: 114,066 (increase of 1.8%)
Total number of deaths: 170,524 (increase of 4.2%)

Total natural population growth: -56,458

Biggest increases in birth rate: Kharkov (+5.8%), Kiev Gorsovet (+5.8%), Lugansk (+5.7%).
Biggest decreases in birth rate: Chernihiv (-4.5%), Sumy (-4.1%), Ternopol (-2.6%).

Biggest increases in death rate: Rivne (+8.6%), Donetsk (+8.3%), Zaporizhzhya (+7.3%).
Biggest decreases in death rate: Zakarpattya (-2.5%), Kharkov (+0.7%), Cherkasy (+1.0%).


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: maurya78 on June 04, 2014, 04:52:00 AM
Interesting stats, you are clearly a man with time on your hands ;)

Russia's demographic decline has been going on for many years now, no?


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 04, 2014, 05:34:35 AM
Russia's demographic decline has been going on for many years now, no?

Russia's demographic decline is becoming a thing of the past. Right now the Russian birth rate is even higher than the American birth rate.  ;D

http://b-i.forbesimg.com/markadomanis/files/2013/07/RussiaUSBirths.png


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Este Nuno on June 04, 2014, 07:51:09 AM
Where are you getting these stats if you don't mind me asking?


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 04, 2014, 08:05:17 AM
Where are you getting these stats if you don't mind me asking?

From the official Statistics Agencies of the respective nations.

Russia (Goskomstat): http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/2014/demo/edn04-14.htm

Ukraine (SSS Ukraine): http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Nemo1024 on June 04, 2014, 08:32:08 AM
The dynamics in population of Ukraine since its independence:

http://hranive.ru/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/6337_301469553298775_1962213665_n.jpg
http://hranive.ru/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/302875_301469219965475_224334435_n.jpg

Even during the famine years of 1930s the population continued to grow.
Now, after the independence the decvline is striking.
From: http://yablor.ru/blogs/dve-ukraini/3638493


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 04, 2014, 10:39:11 AM
Even during the famine years of 1930s the population continued to grow.
Now, after the independence the decvline is striking.
From: http://yablor.ru/blogs/dve-ukraini/3638493

At least the population decline in Ukraine during the 1991-2014 period (~12%) was a bit milder when compared to that occurred in Baltic states such as Latvia and Lithuania (~20%).


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Este Nuno on June 04, 2014, 03:30:01 PM
Even during the famine years of 1930s the population continued to grow.
Now, after the independence the decvline is striking.
From: http://yablor.ru/blogs/dve-ukraini/3638493

At least the population decline in Ukraine during the 1991-2014 period (~12%) was a bit milder when compared to that occurred in Baltic states such as Latvia and Lithuania (~20%).

Wow, that's quite a decline. Do you know what caused such a drastic decline in population over that timer period?


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 04, 2014, 03:35:53 PM
Wow, that's quite a decline. Do you know what caused such a drastic decline in population over that timer period?

I think working age mortality is mostly to blame. A lot of males in the 30s and 40s were dying, as the health care sector collapsed completely. Among the ex-USSR republics, only the Belarus managed to avoid such a fate.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Pepin on June 04, 2014, 04:21:26 PM
Emigration, higher mortality, and decreased birthrate all combined to cause the ~10% population drop.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 04, 2014, 04:51:10 PM
Demography for Belarus Jan-March 2014:

Total number of Births: 27,690 (-1.3%)
Total number of deaths: 31,311 (-6.9%)

Natural population growth: -3,621


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 05, 2014, 06:44:30 PM
Demography for Moldovia (2013):

Total number of Births: 37,871 (-4.0%) [Birth rate of 10.6 / 1000, ranging from 8.3/1000 in Basarabeasca to 12.9/1000 in Ungheni)
Total number of Deaths: 38,060 (-3.2%) [Death rate of 10.7 / 1000, ranging from 7.5/1000 in Chişinău to 16.7/1000 in Donduşeni)

Natural population growth: -189

TFR: 1.24 children / woman.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 10, 2014, 01:43:12 PM
Demography for Latvia (January-April 2014):

Total number of Births: 6,813 (+4.3%)
Total number of Deaths: 9,784 (-10.8%)

Natural population growth: −2,971 (−4,440 in Jan-Apr 2013).


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: 247crypto on June 10, 2014, 02:11:20 PM
Check better https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iodine_deficiency



Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 10, 2014, 03:17:03 PM
Check better https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iodine_deficiency

What this has to do with demography?

---------------------------------------------------------------
Demography for Lithuania (January-May 2014):

Total number of Births: 11,922 (-2.2%)
Total number of Deaths: 17,231 (-8.6%)

Natural population growth: −5,309 (−6,657 in Jan-May 2013).


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: 247crypto on June 10, 2014, 07:36:46 PM

What this has to do with demography?

Quality of life and income.
See, where in Ukraine is greatest Iodine deficiency  ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Cryptopher on June 10, 2014, 11:42:54 PM
This thread is another extension to the Bryant Coleman post-a-thon empire. Serious copy and paste job going down here.

Church.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 11, 2014, 02:15:33 AM
This thread is another extension to the Bryant Coleman post-a-thon empire. Serious copy and paste job going down here.

Don't get jealous, and I am not copy pasting anything. I am doing serious research and posting the information here. Much better than your spam. So GTFO from my thread and don't hang here to improve your post count.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Demography for Estonia (January-April 2014):

Total number of Births: 4,266 (-6.3%)
Total number of Deaths: 5,436 (-4.8%)

Natural population growth: −1,170 (−1,158 in Jan-Apr 2013).


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: niothor on June 11, 2014, 02:27:46 AM
Then how about you merge your posts?

Everybody will be happy and if there is indeed somebody interested in those statistics they will find them easily , not spread over 20 pages ?



 


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Cryptopher on June 11, 2014, 07:45:27 AM
This thread is another extension to the Bryant Coleman post-a-thon empire. Serious copy and paste job going down here.

Don't get jealous, and I am not copy pasting anything. I am doing serious research and posting the information here. Much better than your spam. So GTFO from my thread and don't hang here to improve your post count.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Demography for Estonia (January-April 2014):

Total number of Births: 4,266 (-6.3%)
Total number of Deaths: 5,436 (-4.8%)

Natural population growth: −1,170 (−1,158 in Jan-Apr 2013).

Okay, maybe I was harsh with the copy and paste job comment, but the point remains, making back-to-back posts on stats and posting pictures of World Cup 30 man and then 23 man squads is clearly dodgy.

I mean, why not compile a report and summarise in one or few posts, or link us to an external resource that you have created that gives us more information, should we choose to view it?

I'm not having a go at your other posts, they're good, but you have to ask yourself the question, would you be making these threads and filling them with many, many singular responses if you weren't on a signature campaign?

That's all I have to say on the matter.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 11, 2014, 08:25:23 AM
I'm not having a go at your other posts, they're good, but you have to ask yourself the question, would you be making these threads and filling them with many, many singular responses if you weren't on a signature campaign?

The fact remains that you are just jealous that I make more posts than you, while using the same sig campaign. If you have any problem with my posts, then you are free to press the Report to moderator button. Now the GTFO from here and don't waste my time.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Demography for Austria (2013):

Total number of Births: 79,330 (+0.5%)
Total number of Deaths: 79,526 (+0.1%)

Natural population growth: −196 (−1,158 in Jan-Apr 2013).

Biggest increases in Birth rate: Vienna (+2.3%), Salzburg (+2.0%), and Tyrol (+0.7%).
Biggest decreases in Birth rate: Vorarlberg (-2.3%), Burgenland (-2.0%), Lower Austria (-0.4%).

Biggest increases in Death rate: Salzburg (+4.6 %), Upper Austria (+3.6%), Vorarlberg (+1.9%).
Biggest decreases in Death rate: Burgenland (-2.5%), Styria (-1.9%), Lower Austria (-1.5%).


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Unluckyduck on June 11, 2014, 09:56:41 AM
Do some non-European nations  :)


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 11, 2014, 10:22:32 AM
Do some non-European nations  :)

Name the nation here. I can get information for any country, as I have premium access to various demographic journals and archives. Actually I am working in the demography sector for the last 8 years.  ;D

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Demography for Singapore (2013):

Total population: 5,312,400 (Singapore Citizens - 3,285,100; Singapore Permanent Residents - 533,100 & Foreigners - 1,494,200)

Total number of Births: 39,720 (-6.9%). 62.7% of the births are to ethnic Chinese, 13.8% to ethnic Malays, 11.0% to Indians, and 12.5% to others.
Total number of Deaths: 18,938 (+2.5%)

Natural population growth: 20,782 (24,182 in 2012).

Total Fertility Rate: 1.19 child per woman (1.29 in 2012)

Ethnic Composition (no change from 2012): Chinese: 74.2%, Malays: 13.3%, Indians: 9.2%, Others: 3.3%.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Este Nuno on June 13, 2014, 02:13:42 PM
Do some non-European nations  :)

Name the nation here. I can get information for any country, as I have premium access to various demographic journals and archives. Actually I am working in the demography sector for the last 8 years.  ;D

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Demography for Singapore (2013):

Total population: 5,312,400 (Singapore Citizens - 3,285,100; Singapore Permanent Residents - 533,100 & Foreigners - 1,494,200)

Total number of Births: 39,720 (-6.9%). 62.7% of the births are to ethnic Chinese, 13.8% to ethnic Malays, 11.0% to Indians, and 12.5% to others.
Total number of Deaths: 18,938 (+2.5%)

Natural population growth: 20,782 (24,182 in 2012).

Total Fertility Rate: 1.19 child per woman (1.29 in 2012)

Ethnic Composition (no change from 2012): Chinese: 74.2%, Malays: 13.3%, Indians: 9.2%, Others: 3.3%.

I think the 12.5% of births coming from others while other's only make up 3.3% of the total population is interesting. If I were to guess I'd say Sri Lankans might make up a good part of those numbers.

edit: also making these individual posts is fine in my opinion because it makes it easier to quote the stats so we know exactly what we're discussing.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 13, 2014, 03:00:46 PM
edit: also making these individual posts is fine in my opinion because it makes it easier to quote the stats so we know exactly what we're discussing.

Thanks a lot for the feedback.

I think the 12.5% of births coming from others while other's only make up 3.3% of the total population is interesting. If I were to guess I'd say Sri Lankans might make up a good part of those numbers.

It is not that simple.

1. The ethnic composition only takes the Citizens and Permanent Residents in to account. 3.3% of them don't belong to the Chinese, Malay or Indian ethnic groups. They are mostly Eurasian, Filipino, Indonesian and European.

2. The birth statistics on the other hand, are given for all the births in Singapore, including those to foreigner parents.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Demographics for Malaysia (2012).

Crude Birth Rate: 17.2 per 1,000 (decline of 0.4 from 2011)
[CBR is 20.7 for ethnic Malays, 19.0 for other native, 12.7 for Chinese, 12.6 for Indians and 10.4 for others]

Total Fertility Rate: 2.118 child / woman.
[TFR is 2.667 for Malay, 2.319 for other native, 1.667 for Chinese, 1.503 for Indians and 0.988 for others]

Crude Death Rate: 4.6 per 1,000 (decline of 0.1 from 2011)
[CDR is 4.9 for Malays, 3.5 for other native, 5.6 for Chinese, 6.0 for Indians, and 1.6 for others]

Natural population growth: 1.26% per year (1.29% in 2011)
[NGR is 1.58% for Malays, 1.55% for other native, 0.71% for Chinese, 0.66% for Indians, and 0.88% for others]

Total live births: 508,774 (Malay - 306,506, ON - 66,080, Chinese- 82,796, Indians - 24,600 Others - 28,792)  
Total deaths: 136,836 (Malay - 72,346, ON - 12,161, Chinese- 36,304, Indians - 11,706 Others - 4,319)


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Este Nuno on June 13, 2014, 07:38:06 PM

It is not that simple.

1. The ethnic composition only takes the Citizens and Permanent Residents in to account. 3.3% of them don't belong to the Chinese, Malay or Indian ethnic groups. They are mostly Eurasian, Filipino, Indonesian and European.

2. The birth statistics on the other hand, are given for all the births in Singapore, including those to foreigner parents.


Oh that makes sense then. I was thinking the births were citizens.


Demographics for Malaysia (2012).

Crude Birth Rate: 17.2 per 1,000 (decline of 0.4 from 2011)
[CBR is 20.7 for ethnic Malays, 19.0 for other native, 12.7 for Chinese, 12.6 for Indians and 10.4 for others]

Total Fertility Rate: 2.118 child / woman.
[TFR is 2.667 for Malay, 2.319 for other native, 1.667 for Chinese, 1.503 for Indians and 0.988 for others]

Crude Death Rate: 4.6 per 1,000 (decline of 0.1 from 2011)
[CDR is 4.9 for Malays, 3.5 for other native, 5.6 for Chinese, 6.0 for Indians, and 1.6 for others]

Natural population growth: 1.26% per year (1.29% in 2011)
[NGR is 1.58% for Malays, 1.55% for other native, 0.71% for Chinese, 0.66% for Indians, and 0.88% for others]

Total live births: 508,774 (Malay - 306,506, ON - 66,080, Chinese- 82,796, Indians - 24,600 Others - 28,792) 
Total deaths: 136,836 (Malay - 72,346, ON - 12,161, Chinese- 36,304, Indians - 11,706 Others - 4,319)

Is 1.26% natural population growth considered high or low?

I don't know much about demography but it's pretty interesting to see how populations develop.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 14, 2014, 03:31:09 AM
Is 1.26% natural population growth considered high or low?

I don't know much about demography but it's pretty interesting to see how populations develop.

Compared to the other world nations, 1.26% population growth per year is higher than average. For example, the same for the United States is 0.55% per year.

Out of 224 countries and territories, Malaysia is ranked 101 in terms of population growth.

But it has to be noted that most of the population growth is driven by the Malay (mostly-rural) population, while the minority population (Chinese, Indian) is growing only very slowly. If trends continue, within the next 20 or 30 years, Malaysia will become a more homogeneous country, with a large Malay majority.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Este Nuno on June 14, 2014, 07:00:30 AM
Is 1.26% natural population growth considered high or low?

I don't know much about demography but it's pretty interesting to see how populations develop.

Compared to the other world nations, 1.26% population growth per year is higher than average. For example, the same for the United States is 0.55% per year.

Out of 224 countries and territories, Malaysia is ranked 101 in terms of population growth.

But it has to be noted that most of the population growth is driven by the Malay (mostly-rural) population, while the minority population (Chinese, Indian) is growing only very slowly. If trends continue, within the next 20 or 30 years, Malaysia will become a more homogeneous country, with a large Malay majority.

I guess some of that can be contributed to cultural differences between the Muslim Malay population and the Chinese and Indian populations.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Unluckyduck on June 14, 2014, 07:55:28 AM
Do some non-European nations  :)

Name the nation here. I can get information for any country, as I have premium access to various demographic journals and archives. Actually I am working in the demography sector for the last 8 years.  ;D

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Can you do Australia?


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: ShibaWow on June 14, 2014, 08:29:59 AM
Quote
Is 1.26% natural population growth considered high or low?

I don't know much about demography but it's pretty interesting to see how populations develop.

pretty high, imagine a nation with 1 billion people such as China and it gains 12.6 million citizens every year
that's bigger then some countries :D

Do some non-European nations  :)

Name the nation here. I can get information for any country, as I have premium access to various demographic journals and archives. Actually I am working in the demography sector for the last 8 years.  ;D

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Can you do Australia?

I'm also interested in Croatia,Bosnia&Herzegovina and the United Kingdom (if there's time, Spain too)


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: Este Nuno on June 14, 2014, 10:07:49 AM
Quote
Is 1.26% natural population growth considered high or low?

I don't know much about demography but it's pretty interesting to see how populations develop.

pretty high, imagine a nation with 1 billion people such as China and it gains 12.6 million citizens every year
that's bigger then some countries :D

Do some non-European nations  :)

Name the nation here. I can get information for any country, as I have premium access to various demographic journals and archives. Actually I am working in the demography sector for the last 8 years.  ;D

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Can you do Australia?

I'm also interested in Croatia,Bosnia&Herzegovina and the United Kingdom (if there's time, Spain too)

Thailand and more SEA in general if you want to too.


Title: Re: Bryant Coleman's demography thread
Post by: bryant.coleman on June 15, 2014, 01:03:19 AM
Can you do Australia?

Demographics of Australia (2012).

Total Fertility Rate: 1.933 children per woman (1.917 in 2011). TFR is 2.710 for aborigines.

Total number of Births: 309,582 (+2.6%). 18,295 births to aborigine mothers.

Births, Country of birth of mother:

Total: 309,582 (TFR: 1.94)

Australia: 211,570 (1.95)
New Zealand: 9,828 (2.05)
North-West Europe: 13,239 (1.78)
Southern and Eastern Europe: 4,667 (1.56)
North Africa and the Middle East: 8,596 (3.04)
South-East Asia: 16,874 (1.66)
North-East Asia: 13,630 (1.47)
Southern and Central Asia: 17,038 (2.22)
Americas: 4,633 (1.66)
Sub-Saharan Africa: 6,116 (2.19)

Births, Country of birth of father:

Total: 309,582 (TPR: 1.93)

Australia: 200,971 (1.84)
New Zealand: 11,230 (2.07)
North-West Europe: 15,853 (1.75)
Southern and Eastern Europe: 4,550 (1.47)
North Africa and the Middle East: 10,158 (2.88)
South-East Asia: 12,970 (1.67)
North-East Asia: 10,668 (1.63)
Southern and Central Asia: 18,038 (1.97)
Americas: 4,436 (1.70)
Sub-Saharan Africa: 6,502 (2.31)

Total number of deaths (2012): 147,098