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Title: Precarious Post by: miscreanity on February 19, 2012, 10:10:47 PM It seems like a good buying opp, but it looks like there are some other factors that could drag price down further in the short-term (banks attacking, gov't ire, etc).
http://noblenomads.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/bitcoin_capital_flows.png (http://noblenomads.com/2012/02/19/cyclic-cumulation/) So this is probably the beginning of a brief "buying season" to be followed by a breach of the recent ~$7 high. I'm guessing by the end of Q3. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: echowhiskey on February 19, 2012, 10:24:30 PM Title: Re: Precarious Post by: Mushoz on February 19, 2012, 10:34:13 PM How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: echowhiskey on February 19, 2012, 10:37:27 PM How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes. We are 5 weeks into the last bar. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: Mushoz on February 19, 2012, 10:39:57 PM How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes. We are 5 weeks into the last bar. Nice, looking good! We'll probably overtake the 2nd last bar by a little bit if we maintain current volume figures. Bitcoin growth is looking healthy! Thanks for these graphs, really interesting. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: miscreanity on February 19, 2012, 10:51:54 PM Mt.Gox bitcoin volume averaged over 16-week increments. Good stuff, nice to see the overall growth. Does your data include only USD or all currencies? It would be interesting to see the data for all exchanges as well... Title: Re: Precarious Post by: echowhiskey on February 19, 2012, 11:02:29 PM It's bitcoincharts.com's data. I copied it into a spreadsheet, averaged bitcoin volume, then graphed.
Title: Re: Precarious Post by: stochastic on February 19, 2012, 11:18:10 PM It seems like a good buying opp, but it looks like there are some other factors that could drag price down further in the short-term (banks attacking, gov't ire, etc). http://noblenomads.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/bitcoin_capital_flows.png (http://noblenomads.com/2012/02/19/cyclic-cumulation/) So this is probably the beginning of a brief "buying season" to be followed by a breach of the recent ~$7 high. I'm guessing by the end of Q3. Are you long or short right now? Title: Re: Precarious Post by: miscreanity on February 20, 2012, 12:24:44 AM Are you long or short right now? Long; building a position in tranches. The system I'm using has triggered 9 trading signals since the start of data on that chart, and I've only traded 4 of them, the most recent being a sell at $6.75 in January. If Bitcoin breaks below a weighted value of $3.80 by the end of this week, it'll trigger a buy signal. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: BadBear on February 20, 2012, 12:27:25 AM I went partially in, it could go either way at this point.
Title: Re: Precarious Post by: RyNinDaCleM on February 20, 2012, 12:42:25 AM Are you long or short right now? Long; building a position in tranches. But you expect Bitcoin to collapse? ??? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0 Title: Re: Precarious Post by: dropt on February 20, 2012, 01:16:20 AM Are you long or short right now? Long; building a position in tranches. But you expect Bitcoin to collapse? ??? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0 I don't think he's claiming or expecting it to collapse. Looks like he's saying Bitcoin has proven itself over the last 2 years and pseudo-collapse would allow refinement to strengthen its operation/existence without massive resistance from the community which may effectively cause a real collapse. But, I could be wrong. I usually am. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: stochastic on February 20, 2012, 01:23:05 AM Are you long or short right now? Long; building a position in tranches. The system I'm using has triggered 9 trading signals since the start of data on that chart, and I've only traded 4 of them, the most recent being a sell at $6.75 in January. If Bitcoin breaks below a weighted value of $3.80 by the end of this week, it'll trigger a buy signal. How does your system compare with 9 trading signals created by randomly assigning them over that same time period? If you are using data pre-March 2011 it would be hard not to lose buying bitcoins. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: RyNinDaCleM on February 20, 2012, 02:45:54 AM Are you long or short right now? Long; building a position in tranches. But you expect Bitcoin to collapse? ??? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0 I don't think he's claiming or expecting it to collapse. Looks like he's saying Bitcoin has proven itself over the last 2 years and pseudo-collapse would allow refinement to strengthen its operation/existence without massive resistance from the community which may effectively cause a real collapse. But, I could be wrong. I usually am. Nah, that does seem to be the case, but why not wait to buy until it hits $2 again? ;) I'm just giving him a hard time though. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: miscreanity on February 20, 2012, 04:51:05 AM How does your system compare with 9 trading signals created by randomly assigning them over that same time period? If you are using data pre-March 2011 it would be hard not to lose buying bitcoins. It's a very conservative method (I like my sleep). I've compared against a buy & hold position of the same size and over the same time frame. Participating in all 9 trades up to the current USD/BTC rate of ~$4.40 results in a 13% increase over B&H. For the 4 trades that I have made using the system, I'm up 15% compared to a buy & hold strategy. That's after accounting for the additional funds required above the initial 100% position (funds were added 3x before the first sell signal). This is using data from bitcoincharts.com and assessing weekly activity, so if a trade is indicated, it will only be executed at (or ASAP after) the week's closing number is in. Here are the trades:
The date is for the start of the new week - opening is the same as the prior week's closing; positive trade percentages indicate buys and negatives are sells; USD/BTC rates are the prior week's closing and current week's opening value which is the specified trade price. As Bitcoin continues to grow, I'll eventually shift to a monthly basis. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: miscreanity on February 20, 2012, 04:52:57 AM Are you long or short right now? Long; building a position in tranches. But you expect Bitcoin to collapse? ??? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0 I don't think he's claiming or expecting it to collapse. Looks like he's saying Bitcoin has proven itself over the last 2 years and pseudo-collapse would allow refinement to strengthen its operation/existence without massive resistance from the community which may effectively cause a real collapse. But, I could be wrong. I usually am. Nah, that does seem to be the case, but why not wait to buy until it hits $2 again? ;) I'm just giving him a hard time though. Smartass :) Anyway, I'm perfectly alright with getting the majority of the tradable range. Besides, based on the current situation, it's getting more and more unlikely that $2 will be breached on anything but a spike drop... not that there aren't buy orders that low ;) Title: Re: Precarious Post by: stochastic on February 20, 2012, 03:05:11 PM As Bitcoin continues to grow, I'll eventually shift to a monthly basis. What are the trigger signals? Title: Re: Precarious Post by: miscreanity on February 21, 2012, 08:59:57 PM Title: Re: Precarious Post by: stochastic on February 21, 2012, 09:04:10 PM I just ask because it is pointless to post up results without the ability to reproduce it. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: miscreanity on February 23, 2012, 06:32:07 PM I just ask because it is pointless to post up results without the ability to reproduce it. Demand for reproducibility is understandable, but I prefer not to reveal all of my calculations. I make use of numerous variable factors and derivations, including the external capital flows shown in this thread. Bitcoin trading is much easier than in almost any other system due to its transparency. If your interest is piqued, wait for the algorithm to trigger again; I'll post here when it does. Title: Re: Precarious Post by: miscreanity on April 06, 2012, 06:13:38 AM Updated chart:
http://noblenomads.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/bitcoin_capital_flows-04062012.png (http://noblenomads.com/) In mid-February, a lower threshold of $4.33 was broken. Because my system is based on the weighted price, the move wasn't strong enough to trigger a buy signal. For now, it looks like there's still going to be a little while doing a whole lot of nothing (http://www.zombo.com/). |
