Precarious

[miscreanity]

It seems like a good buying opp, but it looks like there are some other factors that could drag price down further in the short-term (banks attacking, gov't ire, etc).



So this is probably the beginning of a brief "buying season" to be followed by a breach of the recent ~$7 high. I'm guessing by the end of Q3.

[1714052785]

1714052785

[1714052785]

1714052785

[echowhiskey]

https://i.imgur.com/8X69n.png

Mt.Gox bitcoin volume averaged over 16-week increments.

[Mushoz]

Mt.Gox bitcoin volume averaged over 16-week increments.

How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes.

[echowhiskey]

How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes.

We are 5 weeks into the last bar.

[Mushoz]

How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes.

We are 5 weeks into the last bar.

Nice, looking good! We'll probably overtake the 2nd last bar by a little bit if we maintain current volume figures. Bitcoin growth is looking healthy! Thanks for these graphs, really interesting.

[miscreanity]

Mt.Gox bitcoin volume averaged over 16-week increments.

Good stuff, nice to see the overall growth. Does your data include only USD or all currencies?

It would be interesting to see the data for all exchanges as well...

[echowhiskey]

It's bitcoincharts.com's data.  I copied it into a spreadsheet, averaged bitcoin volume, then graphed.

[stochastic]

It seems like a good buying opp, but it looks like there are some other factors that could drag price down further in the short-term (banks attacking, gov't ire, etc).



So this is probably the beginning of a brief "buying season" to be followed by a breach of the recent ~$7 high. I'm guessing by the end of Q3.

Are you long or short right now?

[miscreanity]

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.

The system I'm using has triggered 9 trading signals since the start of data on that chart, and I've only traded 4 of them, the most recent being a sell at $6.75 in January. If Bitcoin breaks below a weighted value of $3.80 by the end of this week, it'll trigger a buy signal.

[BadBear]

I went partially in, it could go either way at this point.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.

But you expect Bitcoin to collapse? 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0

[dropt]

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.

But you expect Bitcoin to collapse?  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0

I don't think he's claiming or expecting it to collapse.  Looks like he's saying Bitcoin has proven itself over the last 2 years and pseudo-collapse would allow refinement to strengthen its operation/existence without massive resistance from the community which may effectively cause a real collapse.

But, I could be wrong.  I usually am.

[stochastic]

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.

The system I'm using has triggered 9 trading signals since the start of data on that chart, and I've only traded 4 of them, the most recent being a sell at $6.75 in January. If Bitcoin breaks below a weighted value of $3.80 by the end of this week, it'll trigger a buy signal.

How does your system compare with 9 trading signals created by randomly assigning them over that same time period?  If you are  using data pre-March 2011 it would be hard not to lose buying bitcoins.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.

But you expect Bitcoin to collapse?  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0

I don't think he's claiming or expecting it to collapse.  Looks like he's saying Bitcoin has proven itself over the last 2 years and pseudo-collapse would allow refinement to strengthen its operation/existence without massive resistance from the community which may effectively cause a real collapse.

But, I could be wrong.  I usually am.

Nah, that does seem to be the case, but why not wait to buy until it hits $2 again? 

I'm just giving him a hard time though.

[miscreanity]

How does your system compare with 9 trading signals created by randomly assigning them over that same time period?  If you are  using data pre-March 2011 it would be hard not to lose buying bitcoins.

It's a very conservative method (I like my sleep). I've compared against a buy & hold position of the same size and over the same time frame. Participating in all 9 trades up to the current USD/BTC rate of ~$4.40 results in a 13% increase over B&H.

For the 4 trades that I have made using the system, I'm up 15% compared to a buy & hold strategy. That's after accounting for the additional funds required above the initial 100% position (funds were added 3x before the first sell signal).

This is using data from bitcoincharts.com and assessing weekly activity, so if a trade is indicated, it will only be executed at (or ASAP after) the week's closing number is in. Here are the trades:

Date		Trade		USD/BTC
2010-10-11		-10.00%		0.10
2011-02-07		-10.00%		0.92
2011-05-16		-10.00%		7.20
2011-06-13		-10.00%		14.65
2011-08-08		10.00%		6.55
2011-09-12		10.00%		4.77
2011-10-24		10.00%		3.16
2011-11-21		10.00%		2.20
2012-01-09		-10.00%		6.75

The date is for the start of the new week - opening is the same as the prior week's closing; positive trade percentages indicate buys and negatives are sells; USD/BTC rates are the prior week's closing and current week's opening value which is the specified trade price.

As Bitcoin continues to grow, I'll eventually shift to a monthly basis.

[miscreanity]

Are you long or short right now?

Long; building a position in tranches.

But you expect Bitcoin to collapse? 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=64092.0

I don't think he's claiming or expecting it to collapse.  Looks like he's saying Bitcoin has proven itself over the last 2 years and pseudo-collapse would allow refinement to strengthen its operation/existence without massive resistance from the community which may effectively cause a real collapse.

But, I could be wrong.  I usually am.

Nah, that does seem to be the case, but why not wait to buy until it hits $2 again? 

I'm just giving him a hard time though.

Smartass

Anyway, I'm perfectly alright with getting the majority of the tradable range. Besides, based on the current situation, it's getting more and more unlikely that $2 will be breached on anything but a spike drop... not that there aren't buy orders that low

[stochastic]

As Bitcoin continues to grow, I'll eventually shift to a monthly basis.

What are the trigger signals?

[miscreanity]

What are the trigger signals?

Buy or sell.

[stochastic]

What are the trigger signals?

Buy or sell.

I just ask because it is pointless to post up results without the ability to reproduce it.

[miscreanity]

I just ask because it is pointless to post up results without the ability to reproduce it.

Demand for reproducibility is understandable, but I prefer not to reveal all of my calculations. I make use of numerous variable factors and derivations, including the external capital flows shown in this thread.

Bitcoin trading is much easier than in almost any other system due to its transparency. If your interest is piqued, wait for the algorithm to trigger again; I'll post here when it does.