Bitcoin Forum

This is not a prediction

I'm not trying to be a bear here. In fact I'm currently long and hope that this doesn't happen. However, I couldn't help but share a fractal idea I had in my mind of how, if a downtrend were to resume, it could look like a fractal of the previous downtrend. The theory is as follows:

Notice how, in the Feb-May bear market, there were two sub-crashes, one was the 'gox-crash' from Feb-Mar, and the other was the 'China crash' from late Mar-Apr. Each sub-crash had their own resistance line which branched out from the main resistance line, which had a much lesser slope than the sub-resistance-lines. Each sub-crash then recovered in a weak way which eventually led into the next subcrash.  Finally in May, the whole bear market supposedly ends, but it ends in a weak way.

Now what if, this whole Feb-May bear market, is actually a 'sub-crash' of yet a larger bear market. Feb-May is subcrash one and then in July-October will be subcrash two.  July-October will have its own resistance line similar to the resistance in Feb-May, and both resistance lines will branch off of yet a larger parent resistance line with a lesser slope which spans the entire actual bear market of one year. Finally sometime in 2015 the bear market actually ends as the parent resistance line is broken.

There are two support lines in my chart: one is a line connected to a point starting in late 2012 and another is a line connected all the way back to the 2011 crash bounce/recovery. The Feb-May subcrash finds support against the first support line, which was not about to die without a fight. However, its weak trading action where the line is constantly being tested and there is low volume eventually gives way to it breaking and initiating the July-October subcrash as the weekly ichimoku cloud is breached. The entire bear market eventually finds its support on the original 2011 trendline.

https://i.imgur.com/R2JByHZ.png

https://i.imgur.com/zbUWnyX.png

Elliot waves???
https://i.imgur.com/CvcO34F.png

Again I'm not saying or hoping that this will happen and it's just an idea for the math brains to think about.

agree with the last chart, we are going down thanks for the mtgox 800k + 200k lost coins and the China ban, $680 - $630 - $600 - $5xx - fast to $400 - $3xx

And TERA will be called a perma-bear again!  :D

Seriously, this is my most probable scenario too, but only in the case of more China FUD and panic selling.
I can't ignore the relatively low volume of Bitstamp + Bitfinex + BTC-E compared with the Chinese exchanges, which don't yet look so bearish.

Edit: I don't believe that wave C is just about to start, as you drew in one of the images. IMO wave B was in January and if now we are still in
wave C and not in wave 1, then the last uptrend is just an overgrown (pumped) upward sub-sub-wave, and the last 1 / 3 of wave C follows.

As usual, insightful and original post from you. Might be called "permabear" again, but who cares, you made it clear that's not your "most likely scenarion" but an interesting observation.

My remarks:

Based on resistances, supports and common market patterns, I see a real chance we'll re-test 570-580 (1w BB), even 530 (1st fib level of entire bear market downtrend). Anything below that, and we will run into what I believe to be strong buying support starting from around 500.

I can somehow see how, once we approach a bearish territory like 500, momentum/panic will carry us further, despite that buying support, but your scenario isn't one of a quick flash crash to below 500, below 400 even, but a slow erosion to that level.

What I'm saying is: I see some room to go down, but for the fractal to play we would need to see an erosion of buying support we saw in late April/early May, and I don't see any signs for that. If anything, I expect buying support moved up on level, and instead of supporting 400 to 500, it now supports 500 to 600 (which still allows for dips into the lower end of that range).

For such drawings to be valid you need to add either:

A) a dinosaur

or

B) a guy smoking a joint

What is your most likely scenario?  Seems odd to post this and not the more probably outcome

This is pretty much the DanV scenario and I certainly wouldn't be writing it off. He was calling for retest of the $400 range lows on Jan 5th, the eve of the 2014 top, and at a time when everyone thought it was a foregone conclusion that new ATHs lay ahead.

I shall certainly be keeping an eye out on how Bitcoin develops, with such a scenario in mind, just as soon as this current minor downtrend is over and Bitcoin is back on the march.

Great work on this post (charts and explanation). After it broke 600, I thought that was the end. Went to 680 then to 640 then to 620. Personally I do not think it will break 600 but I guess a flash crash or something could happen. Anyways, glad you always speak your mind.

A nice long video from DanV :

BITCOIN - Could it confound the BULLS?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzZ0t9BVLPA

Haha guys, this can't be true, I know your position (most of you) just from a few of your last posts... so simple to speak own book.

I think you are living two months ago.
That already happened.

No, I'm afraid you don't.

Hard as it might be for you to believe, not every post in here is meant to "speak your book", some of the commentary (at least my own) can be contrary to my position. Describing a contrarian case as a "trial balloon", seeing if I can get some interesting feedback on it that might ultimately might lead me to *adjust* my position.

Your comments in general have some wisdom and objectivity, majority just talk their book.

You can see by style and type of comments and at which situations and in which threads are posted.

Wow definitely something to think about.

Nice Tera

You don't want to be called a bear and then you post this. The blue line in the first graph touches the graph in exactly two places, one of which is now ....

Who else is expecting Tera to show up soon?

This guy knows whats up

What if Tera's the manipulator?  Mind blown.

So we are going to reach $300 and then rebound to infinity?

We are heading down below $200, I will call $127.52 on Oct 18th.

we stay below $150 for at least six months, so time to buy is Feb or March next year.

That is probably the dumbest thing I've read on here in the last two days.  Please help me think it's not dumb and show me why you believe this.

Based on what exactly? This doesn't sound very realistic to me. Do you like to pull random things out of your ass?

Ok you've pointed out a legit ironclad point of resistance, but why do you think it will be there around October? Any reasoning or just intuition(not that there's anything wrong with intuition I use it all the time)