TERA (OP)
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 09:12:18 AM Last edit: June 12, 2014, 09:22:41 AM by TERA |
|
This is not a predictionI'm not trying to be a bear here. In fact I'm currently long and hope that this doesn't happen. However, I couldn't help but share a fractal idea I had in my mind of how, if a downtrend were to resume, it could look like a fractal of the previous downtrend. The theory is as follows: Notice how, in the Feb-May bear market, there were two sub-crashes, one was the 'gox-crash' from Feb-Mar, and the other was the 'China crash' from late Mar-Apr. Each sub-crash had their own resistance line which branched out from the main resistance line, which had a much lesser slope than the sub-resistance-lines. Each sub-crash then recovered in a weak way which eventually led into the next subcrash. Finally in May, the whole bear market supposedly ends, but it ends in a weak way. Now what if, this whole Feb-May bear market, is actually a 'sub-crash' of yet a larger bear market. Feb-May is subcrash one and then in July-October will be subcrash two. July-October will have its own resistance line similar to the resistance in Feb-May, and both resistance lines will branch off of yet a larger parent resistance line with a lesser slope which spans the entire actual bear market of one year. Finally sometime in 2015 the bear market actually ends as the parent resistance line is broken. There are two support lines in my chart: one is a line connected to a point starting in late 2012 and another is a line connected all the way back to the 2011 crash bounce/recovery. The Feb-May subcrash finds support against the first support line, which was not about to die without a fight. However, its weak trading action where the line is constantly being tested and there is low volume eventually gives way to it breaking and initiating the July-October subcrash as the weekly ichimoku cloud is breached. The entire bear market eventually finds its support on the original 2011 trendline. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FR2JByHZ.png&t=665&c=ctfSp3ZENX64cQ) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzbUWnyX.png&t=665&c=PDQRiu_mKsN5hw) Elliot waves??? ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCvcO34F.png&t=665&c=vc8k3sZok23jfQ) Again I'm not saying or hoping that this will happen and it's just an idea for the math brains to think about.
|
|
|
|
falllling
Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 112
Merit: 10
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 09:29:21 AM |
|
agree with the last chart, we are going down thanks for the mtgox 800k + 200k lost coins and the China ban, $680 - $630 - $600 - $5xx - fast to $400 - $3xx
|
|
|
|
Tzupy
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 10:34:25 AM Last edit: June 12, 2014, 10:52:48 AM by Tzupy |
|
And TERA will be called a perma-bear again! ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) Seriously, this is my most probable scenario too, but only in the case of more China FUD and panic selling. I can't ignore the relatively low volume of Bitstamp + Bitfinex + BTC-E compared with the Chinese exchanges, which don't yet look so bearish. Edit: I don't believe that wave C is just about to start, as you drew in one of the images. IMO wave B was in January and if now we are still in wave C and not in wave 1, then the last uptrend is just an overgrown (pumped) upward sub-sub-wave, and the last 1 / 3 of wave C follows.
|
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
|
|
|
oda.krell
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 10:50:39 AM |
|
As usual, insightful and original post from you. Might be called "permabear" again, but who cares, you made it clear that's not your "most likely scenarion" but an interesting observation.
My remarks:
Based on resistances, supports and common market patterns, I see a real chance we'll re-test 570-580 (1w BB), even 530 (1st fib level of entire bear market downtrend). Anything below that, and we will run into what I believe to be strong buying support starting from around 500.
I can somehow see how, once we approach a bearish territory like 500, momentum/panic will carry us further, despite that buying support, but your scenario isn't one of a quick flash crash to below 500, below 400 even, but a slow erosion to that level.
What I'm saying is: I see some room to go down, but for the fractal to play we would need to see an erosion of buying support we saw in late April/early May, and I don't see any signs for that. If anything, I expect buying support moved up on level, and instead of supporting 400 to 500, it now supports 500 to 600 (which still allows for dips into the lower end of that range).
|
Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
|
|
|
zby
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1592
Merit: 1001
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 11:23:59 AM |
|
For such drawings to be valid you need to add either:
A) a dinosaur
or
B) a guy smoking a joint
|
|
|
|
blatchcorn
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 11:36:39 AM |
|
What is your most likely scenario? Seems odd to post this and not the more probably outcome
|
|
|
|
MatTheCat
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 11:36:44 AM |
|
Again I'm not saying or hoping that this will happen and it's just an idea for the math brains to think about.
This is pretty much the DanV scenario and I certainly wouldn't be writing it off. He was calling for retest of the $400 range lows on Jan 5th, the eve of the 2014 top, and at a time when everyone thought it was a foregone conclusion that new ATHs lay ahead. I shall certainly be keeping an eye out on how Bitcoin develops, with such a scenario in mind, just as soon as this current minor downtrend is over and Bitcoin is back on the march.
|
|
|
|
bitcoinsrus
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 12:30:33 PM |
|
Great work on this post (charts and explanation). After it broke 600, I thought that was the end. Went to 680 then to 640 then to 620. Personally I do not think it will break 600 but I guess a flash crash or something could happen. Anyways, glad you always speak your mind.
|
|
|
|
gizmoh
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 01:13:04 PM |
|
A nice long video from DanV : BITCOIN - Could it confound the BULLS? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzZ0t9BVLPA
|
How Ripple Rips you: "The founders of Ripple Labs created 100 billion XRP at Ripple's inception. No more can be created according to the rules of the Ripple protocol. Of the 100 billion created, 20 billion XRP were retained by the creators, seeders, venture capital companies and other founders. The remaining 80 billion were given to Ripple Labs. Ripple Labs intends to distribute and sell 55 of that 80 billion XRP to users and strategic partners. Ripple Labs also had a giveaway of under 200 million XRP (0.002% of all XRP) via World Community Grid that was later discontinued.[29] Ripple Labs will retain the remaining 25 billion"
|
|
|
MoreFun
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1003
WePower.red
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 01:19:03 PM |
|
Haha guys, this can't be true, I know your position (most of you) just from a few of your last posts... so simple to speak own book.
|
|
|
|
okthen
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 01:34:44 PM |
|
agree with the last chart, we are going down thanks for the mtgox 800k + 200k lost coins and the China ban, $680 - $630 - $600 - $5xx - fast to $400 - $3xx
I think you are living two months ago. That already happened.
|
|
|
|
oda.krell
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 01:43:05 PM |
|
Haha guys, this can't be true, I know your position (most of you) just from a few of your last posts... so simple to speak own book.
No, I'm afraid you don't. Hard as it might be for you to believe, not every post in here is meant to "speak your book", some of the commentary (at least my own) can be contrary to my position. Describing a contrarian case as a "trial balloon", seeing if I can get some interesting feedback on it that might ultimately might lead me to *adjust* my position.
|
Not sure which Bitcoin wallet you should use? Get Electrum!Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: fast, user friendly, and 100% secure. Download the source or executables for Windows/OSX/Linux/Android from, and only from, the official Electrum homepage.
|
|
|
MoreFun
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1003
WePower.red
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 01:57:54 PM |
|
Your comments in general have some wisdom and objectivity, majority just talk their book.
You can see by style and type of comments and at which situations and in which threads are posted.
|
|
|
|
damiano
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 01:58:13 PM |
|
Wow definitely something to think about.
Nice Tera
|
|
|
|
wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 12, 2014, 03:53:29 PM |
|
You don't want to be called a bear and then you post this. The blue line in the first graph touches the graph in exactly two places, one of which is now ....
|
|
|
|
blatchcorn
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
August 19, 2014, 01:49:33 PM |
|
Who else is expecting Tera to show up soon?
|
|
|
|
magicmexican
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
August 19, 2014, 01:53:34 PM |
|
For such drawings to be valid you need to add either:
A) a dinosaur
or
B) a guy smoking a joint
This guy knows whats up
|
|
|
|
dropt
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
August 19, 2014, 02:30:15 PM |
|
Who else is expecting Tera to show up soon?
What if Tera's the manipulator? Mind blown.
|
|
|
|
w4ssop
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
August 19, 2014, 02:31:35 PM |
|
So we are going to reach $300 and then rebound to infinity?
|
|
|
|
DieJohnny
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1639
Merit: 1006
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
August 19, 2014, 02:49:58 PM |
|
We are heading down below $200, I will call $127.52 on Oct 18th.
we stay below $150 for at least six months, so time to buy is Feb or March next year.
|
Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
|
|
|
|