Bitcoin Forum

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in your dreams. It will probably sell for way less. I dare you to bet on betmoose if youre so confident.

Ignore this bear.

It makes far more sense for the coins to sell above the market value, rather than below

Wow you're an optimistic one! It's not farfetched that some of the bids might be above market price, but no one is going to bid significantly higher. If the public learns that one purchaser decided to pay $200 over current market price, well, they're probably going to just think that purchaser is crazy. There are plenty of off-exchange methods for buying coins without moving markets.

But just to entertain your idea, there are only 16,000 BTC up for sale on Bitstamp. Therefore, a 30,000 BTC market order would push the price up over 5k! However, this impossible scenario would be followed with a swift and mighty correction.

yes, rich investors are lining up to overpay for an asset that they can buy at market value just like anyone else from a common exchange (note... they don't have to order all at once...) or from an offline seller. come on guys, instead of flaming everyone who disagrees with you, actually think with your heads for a minute.

The bidders obviously know the value of bitcoin is far higher than it's current price. Not a single one of them is going to say "Damn BTC is going for $700...I'm out". They know the MASSIVE heights that bitcoin can very easily reach in the not so distant future. These guys have money to burn. They're not going to be pinching pennies here. I think we'll see a pretty high price. And that could trigger the boom...or it could do nothing at all. But I don't think so.

I believe it's probable that they'll overpay a little bit.  It'd be prudent for both parties; you can't just buy 30k BTC @ X price in one action, the price will probably go up way before you hit 30k, and the FBI gets to charge a premium for their efforts.  

Plus the fact that it's an auction, we could see some seriously crazy shit happen.  Overpaying like crazy to drive the price up for a massive bubble, and it's likely whoever wins has massive amounts of Bitcoins already, so the chance they'll dump all-out to fiat is low; anyone heavily vested in Bitcoin wins from that auction.

On the flipside, let's say the FBI under-prices them at $300-$400?  They could negatively influence Bitcoin's price & viability, at the expense of cash (and as I write that last part it seems ridiculous for them to give up millions to try and dismantle something they should know they can't dismantle with just a few million dollars).

The winners aren't going to dump shit. They're going to hoard. Because they know the long term potential absolutely shits on the ability to make a few million in the short term.

Since you are the only one using your head, why didn't you take my bet I offered you yesterday?

I don't bet; I'm more into the buy and hold philosophy and that's enough excitement for me.

Curious. Are you going to make a statement if the majority of coins sell for a premium?

I have nothing to gain here. I'm out.

You should change your name to Devin Troll

When shares or other financial instruments are sold in bulk the buyers always look for a discount to the market price.  Always.  Bitcoin's market is still extremely thin but I think it will follow the established laws of finance.  The bidders will be looking for a discount to the current market price.  While it is interesting to speculate what would happen if the winning bidder went to Bitstamp/Btce/etc with a 30k order instead of the auction, I think it would be foolish for the bidder to push the auction price per bitcoin to parity or even above the asking price.

The bidders are professional. They will have a strategy on how much to bet for each lot. Successful bidders on the early lots will try to drive up the market rate for later lots, while unsuccessful bidders will do the opposite. We are in for a roller coaster ride.

Except that this is a sealed bid auction - bids are placed, and then nobody will find out until Monday who actually won.

paying 10% more than market rate isn't unreasonable.

more than 20%+ is pushing it.

I guess I'll register my prediction now. 5% over market rate at the time of the auction on average for all the lots on the auction block.

This isn't eBay.  I doubt any of the buyers are stupid enough to send in a bid above market rates.

But at least one of the bidders is going to be a syndicate of many smaller bidders wrapped up in to one. So the money will be there. I'd imagine there will be some decent bid action.

Circle is by far one of the most accredited buyers for these coins and I've read that they are actively trying to get the whole 29.9K BTC.
I'm not totally sure but I believe they own over 50K btc as it is already, maybe more. It only makes sense for them to bid high as an auction like this will be a price setter.

The higher they pay for the 30K coins the more money they make on their 50K stack.

I believe these guys are going to overbid in order to lock down all the coins. I think we'll see bids around 3M for a 3K lot.

Just my 2 cents.

Since , (as far as I understand) there would be different bids for each 3k pack , wouldn't it be possible for some bitcoin to go above market value and for some below?

Yes, it's possible, But like I said before, I believe that circle will overbid each lot by a fair amount to add that 30K to their stack.

Firstly, its not stupid, second, what if they did, let's say they bid 1000$ a btc, and got filled for 30K btc, would you start selling your btc at $600, I doubt it!

Yeah, I'm not sure why people cant wrap their head around something so simple as this.

You mean Circle hasn't dumped their 50,000 btc on the market that I'm sure they paid much less than current market price for?!?  And they are trying to get even more btc??  Gasp!  I'm completely shocked they haven't dumped everything already, as I'm sure they would make a killing!

In fact, the Winklevoss Twins should dump their 1000's of coins too, as I heard they paid ~$100/btc!!  They could make so much money!!

Isn't the purpose of buying huge lots of coins, just to dump them first chance you can get in order to make a profit?  Why would anyone even hold them long term?  I'm completely baffled!!

/S   ;)

I really think the coins will be sent above market price.

It just makes sense. Nobody decides to buy thousands of coins in one day.
People who are bidding wanted those coins and knew it would have costed a lot to pump an exchange.

LMAO, sure, I guess they can sell if they want to be so depressed in a few years that they kill themselves.

:D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ve46peMWU5w
i wonder what the difference was (watch the entire video)  ;D

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edit to Devin: Spitting on him like that was a little immature on her part. He yelled at her to get out, but I don't think he deserved that. And I do not know if that was real or not. (Could have easily paid some hooker to do the prank)

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re edit to bob surplus: (without bumping thread for unrelated topics)
I like fousey tube. Watch this if interested http://www.youtube.com/user/TheOckShow/videos
they do a few videos in the hood (like my signature) and the guys there grab and punch them.

Youtube pranks are great (especially the ones) like pregnancy prank (see the parents freak out lol)

And now you know exactly why 95% of bitcoiners who were involved with bitcoin 2-3 years ago, even one year ago, are still no richer or better off than they are today.  Because they had a chance to buy tons of bitcoins for pennies or even dollars, and just sit on them for a few years.  But they didn't, as soon as the price jumped 25%, 50%, or even doubled, they cashed out immediately.  Or day traded and pissed all the money away.  So stupid, many of them could be extremely wealthy today, had they just purchased a few thousand bitcoins and just held them.

The same thing is going to repeat itself from this point forward as well.  The majority of bitcoins will eventually find their way from the hands of the stupid and poor to the rich and wealthy, simply because the stupid and poor don't know how to invest properly and just want to buy some stupid toy with their "winnings".

I totally agree, mostly because I was that guy at one point between 10$-260$ lmao, those were the good ol days. Luckily I picked up way more btc then I could have afforded when I started buying. Paid all my debts, made boat loads and still hold a "fair" amount of btc for the future. Hopefully in 2-8 years I'll be able to fully retire, on a yacht somewhere in the Mediterranean, most probably Monaco due to the lack of taxes. :D

Will we ever know the price those coins were sold for? Or is it confidential?

It seems we'll never know, that's too bad.

It's real, valdy does it big. I love his pranks, but they are a bit disrespectful. If you like that though you shoudl watch some of Fouseytube on youtube... here's on of my favorites.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UmOCKFigME

Nope, not American.

Thank god I was born in Canada, I do however have a dual citizenship but the other country has even harsher taxes then we have in Canada.

I imagine price would immediately jump with panic buys and short squeeze, but I think the euphoria may be short-lived. BFX long stats continue to scare me, and fall in line with Coinsight flair count (;D). I think traders and bitcoiners are overwhelmingly bullish, and expects a bubble soon. But what about retail? ;)

Even if we don't find out the sale price of the coins, we're pretty likely to get info on what some of the failed bids were.  So worst case, we know the amount that was not high enough for the coins to go for, and can deduce from there.

This is the main reason why many in the "middle class" or even "the poor" in most OECD countries do not get ahead. They fail to realize that the secret to wealth lies in spending less and saying no to marketers and sales people, rather than earning more.

A good rule of thumb here is the more branding and marketing, the worse the deal is. This applies just as well to investments as it does to day to day products. As for bitcoin I say buy and hold, the time to get out will come eventually. One good indicator as to when to sell is when bitcoin is heavily marketed and sold to consumers.

+1, If a product needs to be marketed, then you don't really need it at all.

The secret to becoming wealthy is to simply spend much less than you make (i.e. save at least 50% of your pre-tax income) until you reach financial independence. Until then every single dollar you spend is another dollar (actually 2 dollars pre-tax) that you have to work for at some point later in life. Becoming financially independent simply means that you've gained enough investment income to cover your living expenses and thus don't have to work, and now are free to work on your own interests. Anyone who saves 50% of income for 20 years and re-invest that savings throughout, will end up with investment income that equals their spending habits well before retirement.

The problem for the vast majority of people is they've been told/taught to spend money as it comes in, largely on junk or services that they don't really need. That is the behavior of peasants who never expect to become truly independent, but assume they will work forever or until the government steps in with SS (which won't exist in any meaningful form for my generation, most of whom I expect will have to work until the day they die).

If you think this way, then bitcoins just become yet another asset class (among others) to constantly add your position to. Since you should be spending much less than you make there is no reason to sell and can simply watch your BTC position grow.

People in the US are being bombarded by marketing campaign everyday. And being brainwash into thinking certain products are associated with certain emotions. Couple with easy money policy where consumers can spend what they do not have, of course everyone spend like there is no tomorrow.


 

Right. There will definitely be a flood of information coming out after the auction ends. There is no way all of those people are going to stay silent about the process or what bids did not win.

+1 ... most government crap like this is supposed to be public record anyways when available. Barry's reak down was too confusing just tell me when the avg price was per btc

That's a great quote, replying so I can find this later.

What is the verdict? The final price on auction that is.

Sources say $789

my sauces tell me somewhere 800-1500

i would be willing to do an escrowed bet that the price they were sold at was higher than the spot price of the day they were auctioned off.

Care to put up? Or just shut... :P

just curious -- what would you use as confirmation of the auction price(s)? are we actually going to hear from any official channel? and if not, who can be trusted to "leak" this info?

I think a more positive way of viewing the SR coin auction is the fact that, even if they bid a single dollar on them (which obviously they were required to bid much more than), there is more money overall backing the bitcoin. Think about it -- each of those coins have essentially been double purchased. They were initially purchased by the Silk Road customers who exchanged them for goods and then the same bitcoins were then resold into the market a second time via the auction.

It would be as though somebody bought counterfeit bills or securities (I don't mean this comparison in quality, just for the purpose of explaining the practical effect) at face value and then the government seized those bills and sold them for X cents or dollars on the dollar. Again, remember the bitcoin is more currency than asset (like a car) so seizing and reselling it just means there is that much more fiat that was essentially injected into the coin.

Thus, regardless of how the auction went off, I think it should be looked at positively. Moreover, less than a 1% stake in bitcoin resulted in a price fluctuation around 15 to 20%. Therefore, viewed through that lens, there is reason to be bullish in the near to mid-term.

Post Note: I am still wary of the possibility of collusion in the bidding process especially after the leaking of identities and, if that happened, a subsequent overreaction. Still, on the whole, things are all to the Jesus.

Depends on whether you mean the day's high or the day's low. If you'll give me the day's spot high then I'll take the bet. I, honestly, think it will be close and just under the day's spot price. My thinking is this:

10% chance of collusion and/or utter bull---- -- bad news bears
50% chance of just under the day's high -- it is an auction, after all, and even if there isn't straight up collusion there are ways to figure out what everybody else would be bidding.
40% chance of just over -- over spot but under the cost of amalgamating on the secondary market
10% chance that God loves us all


So, by that thought process, I'd take the bet because I think the odds would favor me slightly albeit not immensely.

Note: I am fairly poor -- the bet would have to be modest. About half a bitcoin.