Bitcoin Forum

After some analysis tonight, I have come to the conclusion that the most likely end to the current rally will be at 1 btc = $4.54.  When I say end, I mean a major top will form and the price will drop at least 33% from there.  I will be putting in a sell order at $4.25 for my entire account as soon as I transfer my bitcoins there.  I'll go a step further and call an end to the drop at around parity.

Anyone else have any predictions for a top?  Anyone think it will go up and up forever without any major pull-backs?

I don't make prediction. Don't speculate on bitcoin anymore.

How did you come up with a top of $4.54?

Hmm this gives me an idea.  Let's see if I agree with you.

kiba sounds like he's been burned by the market.  sorry bro :(

I came up with $4.54 using elliott wave theory guidelines.

I don't know about the top, but I think the new bottom will be around $1.40-ish.

I can't picture it getting back to $1, but it's always a bit of a surprise.

I see too much upside to risk predicting a top and selling.  If I see a top starting to form and change mind, I'd like to resolve myself now to avoid some of that upside risk and speculate with only half of my holdings.

The market is growing rapidly, but still very thin.  That's one reason why the tech-not-so-savvy tend to poo-pooh or scoff upon becoming aware of their fashionably not too late arrival.  But it keeps growing despite.  We have the article in Forbes.  What's next, WSJ, FT, and Bloomberg?

After this stunning growth, if the market seems to be acting overly-bearish from time to time, it is probably the result of manipulation by a big player.  Besides manipulation, at this point the only thing I can think of that could turn the sentiment bearish would be an intervention by LEO or some other loss of deposits (try to keep your wallet full and keep it with you).

The arrest of Satoshi would end the rally promptly, I think. Let's just hope he doesn't have sex in Sweden.

correction, HAS grown.  If you want to capture those amazing returns, you have to have an exit strategy.

What does one exit into?  Already overvalued precious metals?  Inflationary fiat currencies?

Hookers and blow.

I plan to ease into yachts and mansions.

I don't know .. people may try technical analysis on it but I don't know if it really applies. If the economy itself develops and people see the benefit to using bitcoin causing demand.. I don't know if technicals can predict that or the absence of it. Just the gambling community with the government doing all their shenanigans to gaming sites could fuel a long term demand.

Bitcoin is such a small market that it has huge upside potential given any sort of mainstream move into BTC. The Forbes article and the CIA meeting are just the tip of the iceberg. I'm betting on a 10:1 BTC to USD ratio inside a year, barring a successful propaganda campaign and subsequent crackdown against Bitcoin. Don't get me wrong though, I fully expect any sort of crackdown to look something like this:

http://bitcoinweekly.com/system/images/15/original/whack_a_mole.jpg

I would think it would be quite the contrary, that would attract mroe attention towards Bitcoin, more people wanting to buy suddenlly == bigger prices

It's downhill from here.  Without an easy way to convert BTC --> USD, you'll lose the interest of many smaller-time speculators and miners.  Paypal shutting down coincard is a nail in the coffin...

Here's to hoping someone finds a clever way around it!

Losing PayPal is a minor inconvenience at worst. And long-term, PayPal will be the loser there. ;D

But we're in for quite a ride till there is a good alternative for converting fiat into BTC and vice versa in most parts of the world

Something is already happened there:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&date=mtd

http://i56.tinypic.com/24lq1s8.png

http://i55.tinypic.com/atnrle.png

Hardly a nail in the coffin. If there's one thing the open-source community has shown, it's that they can find clever ways around just about any obstruction.

Paypal fears Bitcoin...

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." -Ghandi

Ok, my prediction was exceeded by today's spike and my order was filled, but if it falls from here, I will call my prediction accurate.  If not, oops!

I'm guessing this is from the Forbes article?

https://i.imgur.com/wmBFl.png

you still waiting on a drop (which might still happen) to buy back in? or did you take a loss and just buy back higher to be safe?


just curious  :P

It is my personal opinion that the rally is just getting started (see my sig).

There WILL be a peak, followed by panic selling, followed by wild price swings, possibly followed by higher peaks (or not), and then hopefully the market will reach some level of stability at some price. The final stabilized price is anybody's guess.

Hopefully before the peak, somebody will create a way to short bitcoin, so that people who call the peak can profit from the drop too :)

I've still got my buy order down around parity.  The higher it goes at this point, the more likely the drop begins.  It will be interesting to see the shift in tone around here when that happens.  When everyone is doom-and-gloom on bitcoin, time to buy.

That being said, I sure wish I had 12x my money instead of 4x, but oh well, many who think they've 12xed will have lost by the bottom.

I've got a buy order for 1 coin at $3.57.

Simply because that's all I have in Mt Gox at the moment, and you can't buy fractions yet :)

I'm saving everything until at least the end of July.

I should have ~60 BTC by then so I may be able to get a nice profit.

I shorted 3 BTC for $20 earlier, pretty crazy the price is so high all of a sudden.

I've sold a part of my holdings yesterday so that when the correction comes I at least have my initial investment back. It's still rising, but I don't expect it to go very fast from here and we might see a correction.

Then again, people have been proved wrong before, it might really go to $20 first :P

markets can literally do ANYTHING, but what is interesting is what is probable.  $20 before a deep correction is possible, but not probable at this point IMHO

Top = $8.9
Current price = $7.02
End of rally = $5.96

It's possible we could reach there.  The price dropped rather suddenly and drastically.  Who knows?

Either way, I'm still PLENTY happy with BTC being anywhere over $5.  Even over $3 is ok.

Do you mean "end of correction"?

That's exactly why speculators provide a valuable service. They smooth out the market and don't let it drop as low as it would have otherwise.

Cash out to gold or silver.

we will sell you single 1 ounce silver maple leafs.
http://www.artdesignstore.com/images/mapleleafcoin.jpg

 

ok, I was waaaaaay wrong with my last call, but I'm going for it again:

The top is immanent.  An ending diagonal pattern has completed or is near completion.  This is, in Elliott Wave parlance, the 5th wave of the 5 wave sequence that started back in October 2010.  This entire move should be retraced with the most probable bottom coming in around 1 btc = $1.

I've liquidated all of my bitcoins and have $25k sitting in Mt. Gox with a 25k btc order at $1 per btc.

Once the rally renews from there, I can retire...wish me luck :)

I think you'll be buying back the coins at $15-18  ;D

Doesn't sound like a good idea to me. Bitcoin is highly unlikely to ever see $1 again.

ok.  good luck.

Yikes, you do realize every fundamental metric (searches, forum traffic, sourceforge download stats, news mentions, etc.) is going parabolic right now? That doesn't necessarily mean the price will go up, but it is promising.

Agreed. I'd be willing to make a moderate "investment" if the value of the BTC went below $2.00.  Otherwise I'll just have to love with my 5 BTC and be happy. :/

I think so too :)

Ive asked S3052 and others to explain *why* they think an entirely new form of currency that offers *many* advantages over any of the existing forms of value trading systems, and is *just starting* to pick up steam (as far as mainstream awareness goes) would possibly follow the old patterns of "normal" stocks of companies and commodities.

Did the adoption of the Internet and Broadband follow "Elliot Waves" ?
Did anyone talk about "Bear and Bull" markets with regard to BitTorrent's uptake ?
Were Mobile Phones considered a "Bubble that will burst ?"
Did the takeover of the Automobile follow "The Markets *Rules* ?"

Digital Cameras annihilated the 100+ year old film/development industry within a decade, CCD's and Portable mass storage combined to totally change the way we took and stored images almost overnight (in cultural time frames)

Bitcoin is also an entirely new technology combination that stands to revolutionize the worlds whole financial system and how people transact with each other, and some think it will follow the usual stock-market rules just because it uses seemingly familiar "exchanges" to help it along.

I personally think it will rise, and rise, and rise for at least 5 or 10 years, (possibly in bursts according to media coverage/awareness grows) as mass-adoption gradually happens..

Unless something catastrophic (and very unlikely) happens, such as the governments of the world conducting an all-out media-smear campaign against it war-on-drugs style (possible - even although it will likely fail, just like prohibition and WOD), switch off the internet (yeah right), or start jailing people for using it (yeah right again).

I try not be a cheerleader/fanboi, but Ive been in the Electronics and I.T. industry for 30 years and I havent *ever* seen anything with the potential that this project has to change the world for the better.

Yep, waaay before Bitcoin hits $1.00 USD I'll be buying them up. Notwithstanding the investment value to myself, there are humanitarian reasons for keeping value in BTC.

When the difficulty looked like it was going to dip back below 400,000 over the weekend, after peaking at 500,000, I started feeling bearish on the price.

Now it looks like the difficulty might be recovering, and could head towards 600,000.  That, plus all the media, has me leaning bullish again.

At 600,000, a drop to $6 would put us at the historic low of around 1:1.  I don't see that happening, with the explosion of media attention and trade volume.

On the other hand, if the price goes over $10 the pop to $18 is almost certain (an almost flat ask depth beyond $10).  Even at $18 the ratio would still only be 3:1, which was just reached during the first rally to $8.

By a ratio analysis, $18 in the next week or two is in the cards.

I think the price surge is far from over in the mid-term, provided that BTC really gets established as some kind of currency (which implies that a large amount goods are available for sale in BTC).

In the best case the BTC market capitalization could reach a buying-power equivalent to the traditional currencies used today.

Of course, this is far from certain and at the moment a lot of speculation is going on with many new people (like me) entering BTC. So today's value of BTC is not solely based on fundamentals (e.g. electricity costs), but to a large amount on future expectations.

almost $18, I'm crying on the inside ;(

I still maintain that we'll see parity again, though, or something close to it.  This is a speculative market, and has gone through multi-month bear phases before. 

I don't think this will happen soon without some serious adverse events (like government intervention or some other kind of attack on the system) - which doesn't mean that I find it unlikely to happen.

ok, turned into a blow-off top.  it's rare but happens...sell your bitcoins while you can, you won't see these prices again for many many months.

"call an end to the rally" turned out to be premature... again...

because they're so cheap?

Third time's a charm ;)

Will it go over 50 bucks before the end of the year without going down past 50?

Yeah it's like forecasting rain... keep on saying it long enough and even in the Sahara you'll eventually be correct. As the saying goes - even a broken clock is right twice a day.

I'll be smiling when I buy your bitcoins for a dollar, it's not too late to become a bear...

sweet dreams

unfortunately, altoid just doesn't understand that Bitcoin comes from a curiously strong mint.


...sorry.

Nice post PseudoCode.  :)

I'm not an expert but I wouldn't count on parity now, if you get the chance to get back in at close to the price you sold in a future correction just take it, lots of people thinking they missed the boat will be buying up bitcoins if they price comes down, especially if it goes under 10.

either way, you got 25k, better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

I wish you luck getting back in altoid, I mean it.

Here's my prediction:

Bitcoin will hit at least $40 by the end of June, and over $1000 by the end of the year.

..and that may prove to be really conservative.

My prediction is that I wish I had $10k to put in to bitcoins right now.

And lol, I think I called the end to the rally at $2.00 early on in this thread.  Or maybe a different thread.  Regardless, makes me laugh thinking about it now.

full ack.

well, the market is closer to my parity prediction than the previous high.  Anybody wanna join my bear-camp?  Still not too late!  Btw I sold about 100 bitcoins at $31/btc, that felt good  8)

$1k is unlikely, IMO.
not SO fast.
but hardly avoidable.

Couldn't have had better timing.

I sold a quarter of mine (which is less than your hundred) for $24/BTC.  Good time to do it by the looks of things... now I'm thinking about buying as much as I sold at less than half the price.

booyah

ooh, just online again, I'm not sure what happened yet, possible hack sell off to 0.01 or something on mtgox?, did you get a parity order filled in the process? if so very nice!  :P imagine the guys that had the 0.01 orders, waking up and finding them filled  ;D ;D ;D unless it was all mtgox users combined getting sold in a hack...  :(

can you withdraw?

I got 80 btc out, but they are rolling everything back, so I don't think I'm a millionaire....yet

after reading the forum a bit, a roll back really is the only thing he can do(right or wrong being irrelevant),

though it's funny watching all the guys that got there 0.10 orders filled going crazy calling the roll back bullshit  ;D

saying its the only thing he can do is based on the assumption that mtgox doesn't personally own 500k btc or the cash equivalent to pay the 500k owner back,  just opening the exchange with no roll back and letting the low orders stand would mean he is just ignoring the guy with the lost 500k btc and that would be worse than the fecking hack, "oh you lost millions on my exchange? tough shit!, stop e-mailing me everyday about it ffs... want some cheese with that whine?"

although even if he did have the 8 million $

he is still looking at the choices of

1: let all orders stand and screw the 500k customer

2: pay the millions back personally and let all orders stand (haha)

3: roll back and pay the few thousand himself

4: close exchange and flee with all the cash

is this a fair assessment?

2 years later you were DPR. Too bad it went all down the drain.

Not anymore   ;)

Your prediction is pure negative. But theres a possibility it will turn into that price as you predicted. But for me bitcoin will never fall to that price again. Bitcoin is very popular right now so the demand of bitcoin will increase and the price of bitcoin a piece will rise too. Bitcoin price.is hard to predict. Its hard to know when it rise or drop. But we all hope it will rise.

You need read first before posting these post belong to year 2011 and the price of bitcoin at that time is in cheap price I hope op grab that opportunity and not waste any bitcoin they buy , now he is rich.

Lol... the dude he is replying to is also in jail for life... doubt he's reading this