Bitcoin Forum

For example, if there was a psychologist, a computer programmer, a mathematician, and an economist, who do you think would have the best chance of correctly predicting the price of Bitcoin over time?

Bitcoiners.

Astrologer.

Math is necessary, but not sufficient. The same goes for psychology, computer skills, or marketing savvy.

Hari Seldon, Psychohistorian. Everyone else is at a huge disadvantage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29)

That goes double for economists.

What is your reasoning for the assessment above?



I am thinking  the same, Astrologer has the same chance as anyone else predicting bitcoin price.

I would say a computer programmer who has studied graph theory and graphs of social networks. Here is my reasoning:

As a computer programmer, they have some insight into the security and strength of the actual bitcoin protocol. The most important aspect, however, is the knowledge of graph theory and graphs of social networks (which mathematicians may have as well). The spreading popularity of bitcoin among consumers and businesses is very similar to the spreading popularity of any other product. If you study the manner in which, for example, Hush Puppies shoes became wildly popular very quickly in the mid 1990s, this will give you insight into the manner in which bitcoin adoption will spread (and the price of bitcoin in the long-term is mostly contingent on its popularity and use as a currency).

A computer engineer that can make Bitcoin so easy to secure, any Grandmother could do it as easily as using a checkbook.

Depends on the time frame of your prediction. For short to mid term predictions I take classical TA cut down to it's mathematical bones any day over the alternatives. For longer term predictions, forecasting techniques with a bit of fundamental analysis thrown in, probably. So, quants, I suppose, but possibly creative use of methods from other fields as well because the complete picture of our market history seems rather unprecedented to me, so any profession using statistical modeling and/or machine learning seems like a good bet.

Exchange insider, whatever the profession. Has access to the most relevant information.

I'd say dice-makers. Do they have some special name? But seriously. The only thing you can to is to decide on whether you believe bitcoin will succeed (at least until a certain point in time) and then draw a logarithmic curve to that point. That really seems to be the best you can do... It sounds simple, but even Risto's predictions are effectively based on that method!

http://www.jacquelinestallone.com/rumps.html

Someone in finance has the best chances of being able to predict the price of bitcoin over time as they have experience in analyzing financial markets 

NSA agent with access to the bank balances of all the major exchanges.

Everyone can predict that the only long term direction for bitcoin is up!!!

i do ok, and im a systems neuroscientist

What exactly do you do???

probably shouldnt say "exactly"  ;)

but to the point, in studying how the brain encodes, stores and decodes information during behavior, i am used to dealing with continuous and dynamic data sets, and finding the patterns in the noise (calculus/statistics/network modeling). it felt natural to apply similar strategies to bitcoin when i started trading a few years ago.

I guess you are daytrading or something, right?

tbh, its more like week or month trading at this point.

Astronauts
Locomotive drivers
Bull riders
Bear hunters

Philosopher King

Hacker

Bitcoin fund manager

Since everyone here is making up stuffs without reasoning, I will do the same.

Meat packer.

this. in this order.

You forgot the weather man he can predict well

Nah, only for stocks and GDP.

market manipulator
conman
russian cyber thief
chinaman

Roller coaster operator

Teological

Most likely the economist. He can rely on the other professions to get detailed information about bitcoin, however he has the experience in predicting prices over time and the ability to spot good investments.

This feels a bit like asking which profession is better for building a house. Bricklayer, carpenter, plumber or electrician? (Pick one.)

You can do better with hammer and saw than hammer alone.

I put my money on applied bayesian decision theory with mathematics, psychology, computer science, programming, behavioral economics and game theory.

Accurate time series forecasting is hard. Instead, think big picture: Divide the utility of Bitcoin by the chance of success.

Conclusion:  Bitcoin is undervalued.  (http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html) Prediction for the price of Bitcoin over time: Up.

It's a clinical psychiatrist, the one with the white coat and an injection needle.

It's true, ask Risto he'll confirm it.

The big miners.

Wallstreet traders, they can predict the price, and have the money to make it true.

I think so too, these are probably a few who can do relatively good price predictions.

Well done sir  :D

:)

Just about anyone and his dog can predict the price when accuracy is not needed and there is no consequence of being wrong.

Just like anyone and his dog can post useless crap on the internet and there is no consequence of being wrong.

Best profession is profiteer, btw. This space is changing quickly enough that simply by staying current gives you a significant advantage over laggards.

So did you actually make a profit?

Adding to the list big governments that can also influence in BTC price seem like some are already involved in this this will be bad.
Never the less this can also influence in price goes up in some point. Question is what to do keep invest or sell.