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Author Topic: Which profession has the best chance of predicting Bitcoin prices?  (Read 2873 times)
vuduchyld
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July 20, 2014, 11:53:48 PM
 #21

Philosopher King
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July 21, 2014, 01:39:37 AM
 #22

Hacker

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July 21, 2014, 02:40:00 AM
 #23

Bitcoin fund manager
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July 21, 2014, 02:47:11 AM
 #24

Since everyone here is making up stuffs without reasoning, I will do the same.

Meat packer.
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July 21, 2014, 06:07:25 AM
 #25

Astronauts
Locomotive drivers
Bull riders
Bear hunters


this. in this order.
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July 21, 2014, 06:39:26 AM
 #26

Astronauts
Locomotive drivers
Bull riders
Bear hunters


this. in this order.

You forgot the weather man he can predict well

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July 21, 2014, 10:13:35 AM
 #27

Astronauts
Locomotive drivers
Bull riders
Bear hunters


this. in this order.

You forgot the weather man he can predict well

Nah, only for stocks and GDP.
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July 21, 2014, 02:28:23 PM
 #28

market manipulator
conman
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July 22, 2014, 08:43:36 AM
 #29

Roller coaster operator
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July 22, 2014, 08:19:29 PM
 #30

Teological
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July 22, 2014, 08:22:28 PM
 #31

Most likely the economist. He can rely on the other professions to get detailed information about bitcoin, however he has the experience in predicting prices over time and the ability to spot good investments.
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July 22, 2014, 10:35:02 PM
 #32

For example, if there was a psychologist, a computer programmer, a mathematician, and an economist, who do you think would have the best chance of correctly predicting the price of Bitcoin over time?

This feels a bit like asking which profession is better for building a house. Bricklayer, carpenter, plumber or electrician? (Pick one.)

You can do better with hammer and saw than hammer alone.

I put my money on applied bayesian decision theory with mathematics, psychology, computer science, programming, behavioral economics and game theory.

Accurate time series forecasting is hard. Instead, think big picture: Divide the utility of Bitcoin by the chance of success.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is undervalued. Prediction for the price of Bitcoin over time: Up.
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July 23, 2014, 12:27:25 AM
 #33

For example, if there was a psychologist

It's a clinical psychiatrist, the one with the white coat and an injection needle.

It's true, ask Risto he'll confirm it.
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July 23, 2014, 12:36:50 PM
 #34

The big miners.
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July 23, 2014, 02:56:26 PM
 #35

Wallstreet traders, they can predict the price, and have the money to make it true.

btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
bitsmichel
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July 23, 2014, 03:44:44 PM
 #36

The big miners.

I think so too, these are probably a few who can do relatively good price predictions.

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July 23, 2014, 09:50:08 PM
 #37

Astronauts
Locomotive drivers
Bull riders
Bear hunters

Well done sir  Cheesy
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July 24, 2014, 12:37:51 AM
 #38

Astronauts
Locomotive drivers
Bull riders
Bear hunters

Well done sir  Cheesy
Smiley
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July 24, 2014, 03:05:49 AM
 #39

Just about anyone and his dog can predict the price when accuracy is not needed and there is no consequence of being wrong.
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July 24, 2014, 03:58:56 AM
 #40

Just about anyone and his dog can predict the price when accuracy is not needed and there is no consequence of being wrong.

Just like anyone and his dog can post useless crap on the internet and there is no consequence of being wrong.

Best profession is profiteer, btw. This space is changing quickly enough that simply by staying current gives you a significant advantage over laggards.

"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
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