Bitcoin Forum

I remember feeling a similar sentiment in June of last year. The feeling that BTC was over-valued and it would keep falling with no end in sight. I remember speaking with a client over the phone about the continually falling price. It was about $60 and he just had to get rid of his. He couldn't hold it out. I wish I could have encouraged him not to liquidate at that point, but honestly, my spirits were low as well. Fortunately, I held my coins, as always.

After selling the August 2012 mini-crash, I learned my lesson. It really does take a few of these cycles to work up the nerve to hold through one. For those of you who have been through it, there is no convincing necessary. For those of you who haven't been around long enough to have the experiences yourselves, I'm not sure I can convince you. But when you feel the most despair is almost always the best indicator of the bottom.

I think march this year is a more recent example...

I think it depends on how long you'd been around bitcoin. I'd that same feeling back in 2011 when it drop from 32 to 3 USD in a matter of a couple of days... imagine if I sold out back then!
But last year and March and now... I just keep calm. Already used to it.

I have the same feeling. Although, it seems like this drop has spooked more people than the March drop. Probably because we picked up a lot of new buyers in March. Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of this new money is selling now in hopes of buying back in lower.

Anyway this seems like a good prerequisite for an eventual rally. We'll never hit a new ATH or go upwards in any significant way when everyone is expecting it :)

And people say that today Bitcoin is volatile. That was 90% fall in 3 days, impossible to happens today. At least now we can see the bad signs coming and get out with little to no loss.

And I would say April - May as last crisis we have, we visited the 300's and most of time we hoovered over the 400's, with one fake recover to the 500's. Until we recovered to the 600's again

This time can be quite different.

Price at 60 required much less money infusion to hold the price and pump it higher.

At 500, it will require much more money infusion just to keep it stable.

A couple of days  ???

As I recall it took months to get to $3 (like about 6 mths).

Sorry if my memory isn't that accurate. But I looked up the data:

June 8-12 2011:
~32 to ~10USD
Drop: 68%

November 2011:
2 USD
Total drop: 94%

This article helps:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/04/11/an-illustrated-history-of-bitcoin-crashes/

EDIT:

Funny to note this of that 2013 article:

"If bitcoins are worth $500 in 2018, we’ll look back at Wednesday’s sell-off as a freak event that (like the other crashes that came before it) temporarily halted the rise toward the currency’s real value. "

I guess we beat his expectations by a good 4 years :D Honestly though, I remember at $1000/coin wishing that I could have another chance to buy some more coins earlier on. Well here is that opportunity I was hoping for. I believe in the long term use of bitcoin and I will exchange my fiat for it accordingly.

I think everybody has to go through some "cycles" to gain the courage to hold bitcoins.

Could have been said of every higher price level to this point.

That's probably (unfortunately) true for many people. Personally, I don't understand how anyone (at least any non-day-trader) could buy bitcoin without a solid long-term investment thesis to guide them, but whatever. Here is such a thesis for those who need one: http://honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/

That's a great assessment. I got into bitcoin very slowly because my curiosity was piqued, not because I fully understood it. As my understanding continues to develop, I continue to become more invested. One beautiful thing about Bitcoin is the more you learn, the more you realize the applications of blockchain technology are extensive and beyond whatever we are imagining today. As the price swings wildly, I reflect that the true value is in the knowledge that we have gained. And we can apply that knowledge in whatever way is most valuable to our own personal intentions and desires. Even if that knowledge means nothing more than having the understanding to not walk away when others are feeling despair.

Indeed although at these times I'm trying to do a complex thing
Following my emotions to where I feel the most despair and then with that fear in mind buying about another sizeable amount of bitcoins
That said I have a hard number as well for that in case it reaches there that I will definitely enter at but until it reaches that point trying to follow market sentiment remains a large challenge.

anything below 600 is a great price to buy. now? a no brainer, just basically free money for you. worrying? let fallling and other trolls do that, I'm fine :)

But it is below 500 already, what do you think?

Bulls are now making threads to comfort each other and convince themselves that this has all happened before and everything is totally okay as long as they keep the faith. This tells me that we're in the "fear" stage, if you believe in that type of thing. and if that's the case, I believe despair is next.. perhaps when we break $266. Things will get ugly here.

The past stuffs don't guarantee future stuffs being the same, but they can tell us about the possibilities of the market.

We've seen the crash then recover to higher before, so it is possible to happen, but there is always a chance of it don't. Put either possibility as impossible is equally wrong

it is a good thing, that i have to hold my coins minimum for 12 months because of tax issues in my country. after a year of holding, every profit is taxed with 0%. that means i have no other choice than hodling till summer 2015. :)

Fact 1: you have sold and / or are short.
Fact 2: literally every comment you post talks your book, or aims to create fear and selling in other market participants.

Based on the price action in the last 2 weeks, it won't surprise me if we see 200-300 again.

The question will then be, is 200-300 a good buy or is it going to down further?

the final capitulation incoming! bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, faith will not save this! sell now to cut loose or lose everything!

it's going to nowhere but down! believe or not, bitcoin game over
buy more lose more

Do you think you are some kind of Messiah trying to save people from Bitcoin?
Go to Las Vegas and stop gamblers or hobos or something :)

What a troll!

*sniff, sniff* what's that i smell? is it fear? yes it is. you've gone this far, so if you find yourself accepting this logic, just make sure you HODL if we get down to 300 or 250 or 100. the problem with denial and fear is that when the pain becomes unbearable, you end up selling at the bottom.

At some price it only take as small amount of new money invested to keep the price afloat.

Unless you expect that people are genuinely going to forget about Bitcoin and move on to something else...   In that case I would recommend you take your investment elsewhere and hold naked shorts on Bitcoin.

However I don't see the 'core' interest in Bitcoin decreasing; instead I see a huge amount of the worlds most talented people building infrastructure to support and build the possibilities of what blockchain technology can provide.  Every month that goes past the Bitcoin infrastructure is in a better position to support a larger and larger popular movement into cypto.

Over the years, I've seen the following cycles:

1.  base infrastructure is developed to support a market.
2.  popular investment movement into bitcoin.
3.  infrastructure is over strained and hacks, companies collapse, and legal issues arise.
4.  bitcoin price progressively collapses for the all-time highs.
5.  the 'core' bitcoin community tirelessly work to build better infrastructure.
6.  the cycle repeats.

I believe we are the phase 4-5 phase as listed above.  At some point the infrastructure will become ready again, and the popular movement will overshoot the price again.  However maybe this time we will be looking it overshooting to $50 000, and retracing to $10 000.  I however suspect that the next cycle is going to be shorter, as the network effects at such such sizes are extremely powerful.

So.  I don't know what will indeed happen... However there certainly are established adoption cycle pattens that are quite observable and tested.

TLDL:  Have fun and and be ready to change your short position into a long.

Good thread! It is amazing how much more I enjoy reading posts by older members than those who have joined after 2013 :) Usually, those newer members are a lot more bearish. Of course, If you don't understand bitcoin and only watch the price, it will drive you nuts.

In the day someone come around and say: I figured a way to calculate the private key for any address.  Which would mean Bitcoin protocol is broken, I will second any doomsday statement as Bitcoin will worth 0 by then.
Other than that if it goes to 100 or to 1000 doesn't really matter. I didn't sold when it was 1 usd, didn't sold when it was 100, 200 or 1200...

So come as doomsday prophet without any technical issue with bitcoin makes you nothing but sound like a fool.

Indeed. We call these brave warriors, "HODLers".

...

"this time it different bitcoins is die!!1 sell sell sell!!"

I think you are just much more calm, when you are still sitting on 100x ROI even when the price drops by 20%. I understand the fear on one hand from the newbies. That is why everyone tells you only to invest what you can afford to lose.

the point is that is more harder as it get bigger

What country is this?? If these coins go up another order of magnitude, I'll be looking for relocation opportunities and your country already sounds phenomenal.  :)

That was an hard lesson for many newcomers in bitcoin trading, and I was one of them but now I hodl so I don't care about the volatility.

While this is true now, you must consider we were all newbies at one point. The difference is the newbies that freak out and panic in times like these can't make it. They don't really get what's happening with Bitcoin, and they liquidate their position at a loss. This happens through every cycle. Those newbies from 2010, 2011, and 2012 aren't here anymore. The hero and legendary members you see today sitting on considerable valuations of coins kept their heads through the tough times. It's not like it was any easier for them the first time around. If anything it was more difficult, because there was much more uncertainty.

Bought my first bitcoin around $17 (after the first Goxxing in June 2011) and watched as I lost over 90% of my investment on those first few over the subsequent months. I continued buying more.

You might think: "oh, well, it was so cheap, risk was minimal"... Not exactly. There was a much more material risk that bitcoin would simply die back then. Compared to today, there was virtually no infrastructure investment, merchant acceptance, or mindshare from mainstream technologists, etc. Mentioning bitcoin to virtually anyone got blank stares, utter indifference, or potentially a dismissive chuckle. We really had NOT gotten over that hump of inevitability at that point.

I'm confident that we're now over that hump. I don't know what that means for price short/medium term (markets are fickle), but my long-term analysis has not changed from when I was still buying more in 2011 after losing >90% on my first: bitcoin is a breakthrough technology with huge potential. It's also a rare *very* asymmetric investment opportunity; you either lose nearly everything (down ~100%) or make 10-100x (1000%-10000%) on your investment. Gotta due your own analysis as to the probabilities of either of those and also figure out your risk tolerance, but that's the situation.

It's funny how little changes... Nothing in the past 3+ years has come around to get me to change my investment thesis, and the boom/bust cycles have repeated several times. The discussion/emotion/sentiment/ridiculousness on both the ramps and falls are always the same. I guess humans are fairly consistent.

I agree that new members and holders of Bitcoin are not used to holding threw the drops.  That is the time when holders are separated from weak hand and I myself have learned my lesson.  It sucks you can't just upload this experience into the minds of newer members.  +1 for inspiring posts/thread, with all the fud around it's truly nice to read.

Why would you want to do that? Weak hands is what separates the poor from the rich :)

Yes and we are "lucky" because we can watch the whole chart of the past. We(the new and current newbies) can learn from the mistakes of others. I learned it in a very conservative way. I was just reading old threads from the year 2011 and 2012. If you would erase the time stamp and the price numbers in these posts, you would think they are talking about the present price actions.

This is also a great thread to get a summarization of the mistakes made in the past: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163258.0 :)

Btw, I live Germany and we tread bitcoin like a currency. Current law means if you buy a foreign currency and hold it for 12 months, without daytrading or anything related to increase your profits, then you get 0% taxing on your potential profits. :)

A stopped clock is right twice a day.

 :)

This is from early 2011. Looks like a tempting shorting opportunity  ;)

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=12-hour&c=1&s=2011-02-09&e=2011-04-03&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=1&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig12-hourzczsg2011-02-09zeg2011-04-03ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzv (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig12-hourzczsg2011-02-09zeg2011-04-03ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzv)

Edit: For the benefit of the newer members prices are for XBT/USD not mXBT/USD.

In consideration of the many members who have them on ignore, please don't quote the trolls.  ;)

We all know falllling is a broken clock.

In the US, if your income is low enough then you do not need to pay capital gains taxes on long term gains (the rate is 0%). I am not 100% sure if these capital gains count towards your income or not for purposes of determining if you qualify for this 0% tax rate on long term capital gains.

There are also other parts of the world that have no taxes on capital gains/investment income regardless of their overall income.

Nice perspective.

And it was said. Over and over again. Year after year.

And don't forget the inflation rate keeps falling. It was about 50% yearly when many started to worry about this. Now it is 10%.

The bubble's cycle seems to repeat another time, but are we sure that it will continue this way?
How many bubbles will we see?
I think that the value won't reach a sort of stability before completing the adoption worldwide.
When most of the people will know about bitcoins, then the bubbles will end... but it's a very long way.

The bubbles will certainly come to an end eventually. This will happen when the adoption cycle is nearing the end. If you think we are near the end of the adoption cycle, then it is fair to say there will not be another shift in price up another order of magnitude. If you don't think we are near the end of the adoption cycle, which I can say with relative certainty that we are not unless something catastrophic happens, then it is fair to assume there will be at least one more price shift up another order of magnitude.

I agree that value won't reach stability until adoption is complete, and I think adoption completion will be no sooner than 2020.

You can feel this adoption occurring now though, everybody I speak to about bitcoin has already heard about it. It's no longer as 'edgy'. Yet, very few people have any. The one friend I know who bought some, forgot the pw to his wallet.

Most people have now heard of it but few people own any because, essentially, the only thing they're good for is speculating and online games of chance. I take that as a sign that adoption is stalling, and the market prices seems to back me up.

Well for one reason the market would be alot more stable and then more people would hop on the train.  I understand where your coming from however.   ;)


You really can notice the topic being more approachable by people who have heard about it once or twice.  I'm just waiting for when I see that spark in their eyes and they wan to invest or atleast learn more.

I've been following Bitcoin since mid 2011, so for 3 years; however, just recently (January 2014) have I started to have interest in holding BTC, and in March officially started to hold BTC.

From there I've purchased at 400, I've purchased at 350, I've purchased at 580, I've purchased at 650. My BTC are never going to be traded for fiat directly, unless it's through some company like BitPay -- even then, I'm still sending BTC, getting a service, and the fiat transfer is on the back end between BitPay and the merchant.

I'll be holding. Some days I'll like holding. Some days I won't.

I've got 20 paper wallets loaded with some BTC on them, each more than a 100$ likewise sitting next to them. Silly how that little Piper receipt is worth more to me than a nicely printed 100$ bill. Shame how the 100$ bill is worthless though.

When Bitcoin dropped from 32 to 2, I thought it's over, nothing in the sane world would be able to get back from there.

Take that as the biggest come back. As long as nothing wrong with the technical, no competitions in the same league, US/EU/China/USSR not agree to ban bitcoin at the same time, it's just the matter of time for the next rally.

Meanwhile it will take some time for the market to recover, anyways did not see the price at that time but sure as heck not selling now, well in the green ^^ but you know waiting for that next rally too.

$100 bill is worthless? not worth much, but it'll buy me a couple dinners. if you're comparing the paper wallet to $100, how much BTC is on it? i'll tell you which has more purchasing power. ::)

Many believe in the next rally but few do something for that rally to happen. Some believe that they help bitcoin by simply holding on their coins.
You should invest your coins in people and businesses that will make bitcoin user friendly.

Bitcoin as it is now exists for geeks and geeks only. Unless that changes noone will invest more money in bitcoin. The geek adoption phase is over.

me fail english?
that's umpossible

Show technical and fundamental analysis that made you come to this conclusion please.

Perhaps, you should study yourself and not just ask for easy answers..

What a convenient answer.
I was not the one claiming that fact.
The one who claims the fact should support it with references and studies.
Where are they?

You do realize "bag hold phase time" has previously always lead back to the beginning of this cycle and it then repeats itself at a much higher valuation. Now, unless the adoption cycle is complete, we can assume this will happen again. I'm fairly certain that the adoption cycle is not complete.

This is what I'm talking about. It always feels so gloomy during these "despair" phases, but this time, there is so much more infrastructure that it doesn't even seem so gloomy. I mean, from $32 to $2, there was no institutional investment. Nobody was talking about BTC on CNBC. This despair phase is almost certainly an illusion of price diverging from fundamentals.

Well, here's some fundamental analysis supporting that point: http://www.honestnode.com/bitcoin-fair-value-a-first-assessment/


tldr:

https://i.imgur.com/RA0pHM7.png

These figures are also accounting for full issuance which will occur roughly in the year 2140. At current issuance, these percentages of market penetration need only be about half of what the table shows to achieve the same price.

0.5% of offshore holdings and 5% of the gold market would put us close to a $20k BTC.

Yup. Using full-issuance was the "conservative" approach.

Many of the figures are rather conservative. BTC should be used exclusively for remittances. It's only logical. I also think it makes more sense for BTC to capture a larger portion of offshore holdings than of the gold market, and offshore holdings is a HUGE and only estimable market. Although to be fair, when I learned about BTC it did replace a significant amount of the funds I would have invested in gold.

Falling, schmalling. I bought at $440 a few months ago, still made money at todays price. I've saved up some more fiat since then, I think it's time to buy some more soon.

I'm not too worried TBH. I'm fairly sure that the current price is temporary and will rebound to $600+ fairly soon. That's just my gut talking though.

Exactly. I will not sell until at least a year has past, FIFO. Keep in mind that the long term, 52-week EMA has been approaching $500 (in black below), while the price flirts with going below it, but never for very long:

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2013-12-01&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=EMA&m1=1460&a2=EMA&m2=730&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

totally getting the feeling of deja vu right now.  It's like I'm hypnotized and can't help but doubt myself, even through it is IMO a great time to start buying little buy little.  Looking at that chart just makes me think a shakeout is likely taking place.  How long it will be and now far down we go, we shall see.

Finger is on the buy button, waiting to see if $490 holds up. If not, I think $440 will be the absolute lowest we'll see.

And my finger slipped.  :)

 Just bought a bit. Upside potential is just so much higher than downside potential. I couldn't talk myself out of it.

I've got through 60$ and 340$ but this is the worst one for me, first time I feel fear.

At 60$ it was play money, few btc and I couldn't care less. Than I managed to make that 30+ btc and invested all in one alt that went down heavily and I still couldn't care less. At September alt jumped up, I recovered and then came bubble, then I made some huge good trades in alts and mcx fees and in no time I was at 500 coins. Around 300 000$ net worth after one year and initial investment of 1000$.

And then I started to make mistake after mistake, investing too early, buying too late etc, etc..

But today I am at my lowest. Got called first time and lost 16 BTC. Not big deal that usually, I have taken losses in that range or bit below before. It is big deal as I bought at fucking 453$ and still got called. I initiated 30 BTC move from my mt4 account to my btce accounted 3 days ago, wanted to turn that to fiat and to trade on fiat mt4 with that. Completely forgot on it and placed my orders at 450 and 440 at pretty conservative 2:1 margin but btc-e out of nowhere decided to move those coins few hours before crash and suddenly that 2:1 margin became much more risky. Got called at 322. But luckily, other 50 btc long order from 446 wasn't called, probably being saved by few bucks. And what's worse I bag hold 18 BTC long from 528 that did not got called - btce at it's finest.

So I'm currently only on like 70 BTC that are not locked in various bad investments. So my available net worth without taking losses on invested stuff is barely 30k, it was 45k week ago, lol. And it looks like this id not end of downtrend.

In April, I laughed 340.. my alts investments were still good, not in profit but in acceptable losses. And most important of them were at break even and I was extremely positive it's going to be profit one soon. And I was in fiat with 80k bucks available. Then that big investment went down heavily out of nowhere and instead of being in position to take 120-150 BTC out of it whenever I wanted, I can't take 30 of it now, lol.

It's so different now and it's first time ever I feel fear. Gonna be some heck nervy period in front of me. Got out of much worse one and came one step of dreams, hopefully I'd do it again, and if I do this time it would be dreams. But loooong way to go now, lol.-

Holy ****! How did you lose 430 bitcoins ?? Only with altcoin trading ? Asic hardware ?

I didn't lose 430 BTC.

I cashed out some and I still can take back max. 100 from various alts, but not fast as I could crash some heavily. The rest is locked in very losing trades, not lost as I haven't sold anything but not available too :P

Shitcoins and margin trading. Sorry to hear about your losses, seleme. Gotta risk big to win big I guess.

Shitcoins mainly, I got margin called just once. This morning for 16 btc.

Yeah, I had some huge wins and I needed one more step to come to Dreamland. Unfortunately that went wrong so far. Hopefully, it will turn again, I hope it's still just temporary drawdown, I haven't sold anything. And I'm pretty sure I'll recover the biggest losing trade as it's not classic shitcoin investment, not sure how fast and the time between is what is worrying me but hopefully I'll get out of this mud.

Last summer was much worse than this though I had much less to regret about back then.

the year is not over yet, there will be some big movements in the alt market and in btc (hopefully)!
good luck with your trading :)

Thanks man, U2.

It will shoot up again, I never doubted that, and I bought nothing at top but at least 60% of it. My only worry is if these btc reserves will be enough to fund my bills until that happen.