Bitcoin Forum

Just curious what you folks think.

Oh wow.
The question is suggestive though.

I wouldn't rule it out, but I think it's unlikely.

A lot can happen in nine months.

A lot can happen in nine hours even.

$7.20 is a 48% rise from the current level.  If history were to ever repeat itself, that size of rise happening in a day or two has occurred mutliple times in Bitcoin's history.

The jump Jan 4th-5th was like that:
 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zigDailyzczsg2012-1-01zeg2012-1-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Or the jump on May 11, 2011:
 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zczsg2011-05-11zeg2011-05-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

Though to be fair, that size of drop happening in a day or two has occurred even more often.  :)

The Mt. Gox order book currently sits at $1,004,293 to buy all the ask orders through $7.20 (which would acquire 177,076 BTC) according to BTCCharts.com.   Thats not a particularly large amount should there be a crowd or even a single entity wanting in quickly.

no, because $7.22 was reached ;)

No! $7.20 will be the new 2012 bottom. ;D

Um, that makes no sense.

I know that percentage wise there have been rises of that magnatude, however I don't think those price increases occurred through the same ask volume density.  There are a lot more bitcoins up for sale closer to the current trading price than in the past when the price shot up above $10, $20, and $30.

The asks on the order book are fake. They're there to manipulate people into selling their bitcoins for cheap.

That logic cuts both ways, y'know. The ask side isn't the one with a 50k wall ;)

I would be very surprised if $7.2 was the high of the year and obviously disappointed. Especially now that Bitcoin has got basically the biggest news boost since the summer (seriously) with a front page Reuters article linked all over the place and a London Times print article, in fact 2 print articles in the same magazine. On top of this we have basically a regular blogger at Forbes and much more positive/productive news coverage than before.

Of course if it just turns out as hype once again, it will be disappointing. However I see this year and the next as the years of actual growth (of Bitcoin usage). So far we have mostly had growth of 1) Silk Road 2) Speculation and 3) General interest but there is so much more coming. So much more.

Where did you get such random numbers? Why not $6.50, or $8.00?

$4 is likely the new bottom, but there's still 2/3 of 2012 left.  I see an overall rise in this chart... if that slight trend continues, it could be possible to break 7.2 by 12/21/2012  ;) ;D

I wouldn't be surprised to break above $7.20 this year. In the moment, (as I stated in another thread), the market cap is awfully small, and still would be "small" at $7.20 - I'm looking for more along the lines of a $100M - no later than year's end. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little bubble to $10ish, see a new bottom form at the $7.20 zone, and then a steady rise to find the reality of the $10+ resistance.

There's definitely a real basis for a move up beyond the bottom we've largely established so far this year. There is definitely an influx of solid, hard money. (Mining gear sales alone suggest this) - I don't actually think the true level of investment is priced into the market yet. This is what I expect to drive us up past the $7.20 mark (to make that a new bottom) - There is a ton of investment that hasn't hit the network yet - it's going to start to hit May/June.

Also, somewhere between $20M and $50M an investment becomes too valuable to allow a chance of failure, and seems reaching that level often results in a direct influx of cash. Again, if this were a startup, and the actual investors were venture capitalists, they'd be looking for 20:1 on their initial investment, within 3-5yrs, sooooo... that's a lot of money.

Given the massive inflation faze Bitcoin is in right now I'd say it's possible.

I think it's more than possible.

Using my incredible scientific method (bitcoincharts.com --> charts --> the gox --> maximum time period --> make edumacated McGuesstimate), it's clear that the price will go sideways 'til about May or June, then go parabolic to $40+ by October. :)

I don't think so. There's a lot of time for various kinds of things to happen before the year is over. And, although adoption rate has slowed down (may be temporarily, may be for good), I'm fairly sure most current and potential owners of bitcoin aren't really very well versed in the technicalities of the bitcoin network, and the block reward halving will thus be a strong boost to bitcoin overall. I'd dare say MOST btcs are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies.

Not quite sure what you're getting at with this statement -- I am genuinely curious:  What do you think are the implications is most BTC are bought by people who do not price the eventual inflation rate drop into their strategies?

Apologies to OP if this is off-topic.

I think many people are underinvested and keeping that way, and I think the inflation rate halving will come as a surprise to many. Thinking in a commodity mindset (my opinion is that bitcoin is closer to a commodity than to a currency), production is going to drop to half of what it's now. Although of course demand for bitcoin is very elastic compared to e.g. demand for oil, and most BTCs are never truly "consumed", halving of production is going to tip the supply/demand scale significantly.

I see; thank you.

I think price will double when the reward cuts in half in December.

Supply halfs, demand same so price doubles.

Buying and holding all I can in the meantime.

I would expect no less than $10 in December for sure.

If it is one good thing that SoiledCon showed us, it is this. When block reward was cut price immediately rose.

I don't think people already priced in this decrease beforehand ...

You have no idea about game theory do you?

Let's say the block reward change occurs on December 9th, 2012.  On December 8th there are 10,492,800 BTC issued and another 7,200 will be issued that day.  The "supply' comes from those 7,200 that miners don't keep plus a certain amount of the 10,492.800 BTC that those holding them are wishing to sell at whatever the current price is.

So demand does not drop in half, only the amount of currency inflation is what drops by half (from 7,200 BTC to 3,600 BTC).

Incidentally, in a market where the commodity is scarce, a doubling in demand causes the price to rise by way more than double.

You are forgetting the effect this news has on people ;)

Just like SoiledCon when King RealScam announced the change to cut reward the price doubled in the same day as people bought up the coins !

But it's very easy to double the price of something worth in the tenths or hundredths of a cent...
I see the way they do it over at BTC-e. Pretty much a daily routine on whichever flavor it happened to be that week.

Good point, plus announcing you are changing it is very different from the BTC situation.  It is well known and will be mostly priced in by the time we get there.

Dont think so...

Everyone who said Yes is now wrong.  ;)

High:$7.21999

I think the question refers to the ballpark of $7.2. We'd have to hit a 24 hr VWAP of $7.3 for it to be a definite 'no'

It will be $10+

Meh, fine.  :p

Will you take last 1000 BTC bought VWAP of $7.2 at gox during last 30 minutes as adequate signal?

is that true? has the adoption rate slowed? where is it possible to see such data/statistics?

Oh whoops, $7.23!  This is it!

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

 8)

http://s8.postimage.org/p8hfg4tdv/VWAP_730.png

Officially a new high for the year =)

Failpicture is fail.  But

$7.90 FTW?

proudhon is shitting his pants!

proudhon being wrong:

you are merciless. ;)

dont tell me you redeemed your paper wallets

Haha, no way.  They're still safely tucked away.  The nice thing about them is that it's quite a hassle to get them out, gotta go to a location, unlock something, take the laminated sheet out, cut it open, take the middle page out (the private key), you get the point.  I'm partially protected by my laziness.

that bear is still there.  I suggest you replace it with this

I gotta get out of here.  I've got a bunch of work to do...

ya me too...
the more the price goes up the harder it is to work

Maybe come back when we hit 10$ ;)

+1 i keep getting distracted too from work lol

ftfy :)

come on bitcoin, go to 1,000$ a coin so we all dont have to work for a while

FWIW, I just voted "no".

How very astute and foretelling of you.

Even though I'm happy 7.2 wasn't the 2012 high, this recent jump does have me worried a bit because it does feel like a new bubble somewhat and I really hope we stop at this level and stay here for at least 2 weeks.

That bear is probably getting angry.. I believe that dance is called the "maul"

I voted "No" just now. Is that cheating?

I ALREADY DID THIS JOKE  ;D

time to skin that bear

I guess this thread is now "irrelevant" as I would quote one specific miner whose name starts with a "V" and ends in "amir".

 ;D ;D ;D

proudhon you looking for a new gif for your avatar?

http://i49.tinypic.com/r0rz8l.gif

The bear defines me.  I don't think I can change it.

If it went that high, you can bet your ass I'd keep working my normal job and paying my rent using those taxed USD.

0:)

This made me lol by the way.

Wrong he may be, but If I were him I would be loving the fact that I was.

we love you proudhon, except your avatar.










we also love that.

All that sensible bearishness probably helped push up the price. N00bs go online, search for "bitcoins", find proudhon's posts and think "hmm, what a sensible bunch! It's not a bubble after all. Buy buy buy!"

yeay! we have a new troll playground! :P

SLAYED

Yeah I said it.

SLAYED

Sorry came up wrong in search