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Title: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Jeremy West spendbitcoins.com on August 24, 2014, 05:48:05 AM http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/16/df/7d/16df7d057d7ffecd948b2357173de9e2.jpg
Please discuss at this link. (https://spendbitcoins.com.au/blog/how-much-is-bitcoin-worth-discussion/) Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Wilhelm on August 24, 2014, 11:54:39 AM No let's discuss it here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=754220.0)
I say 2020 Why? Mining will be near impossible without big dedicated corporations investing millions. Mass-adoption would be well on it's way. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: falllling on August 24, 2014, 11:57:46 AM Never!
bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, sell your coins now to cut loose or lose everything you put in bitcoin Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: LiteCoinGuy on August 24, 2014, 12:05:26 PM 24.03.2019
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: herzmeister on August 24, 2014, 12:33:16 PM why that odd number?
18 bits (2^18) is 262,144 :) Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: painlord2k on August 24, 2014, 12:35:00 PM starting of 2017 at most.
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: BurtW on August 24, 2014, 12:58:53 PM A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.
A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so. Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates: Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: bucktotal on August 24, 2014, 02:27:27 PM according to Burt's assumptions, the current exponential growth trend line is way off and we need to slow down considerably.
according to the current exponential growth trend line, we would reach ~250k/btc sometime July 2017. we'd need to do something like this... (which actually seems reasonable) https://www.tradingview.com/x/rkViTeiX/ Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: giveBTCpls on August 24, 2014, 03:37:45 PM Dude i'll be like 35 in 2020. Can we go a bit faster? :-[
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: InwardContour on August 24, 2014, 03:49:59 PM Dude i'll be like 35 in 2020. Can we go a bit faster? :-[ I think it would be great if bitcoin will be valued 252,000$ in 2020, I don't have any problem waiting 6 years :) Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: falllling on August 24, 2014, 03:56:50 PM Dude i'll be like 35 in 2020. Can we go a bit faster? :-[ I think it would be great if bitcoin will be valued 252,000$ in 2020, I don't have any problem waiting 6 years :) drop your unrealistic hope, bitcoin will more likely drop to $0.00001 and end before 2016 the bitcoin pyramid scheme bubble has burst Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: BurtW on August 24, 2014, 05:00:21 PM I think it would be great if bitcoin will be valued 252,000$ in 2020, I don't have any problem waiting 6 years :) That is probably unrealistic based on energy consumption alone. More like 2030. Unless the value of the USD drops a lot, then, of course it is totally possible.drop your unrealistic hope, bitcoin will more likely drop to $0.00001 and end before 2016 So I will be able to buy 100,000 BTC for a $1? 1,000,000 BTC for a $10? Sweet.the bitcoin pyramid scheme bubble has burst Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: falllling on August 24, 2014, 05:02:06 PM I think it would be great if bitcoin will be valued 252,000$ in 2020, I don't have any problem waiting 6 years :) That is probably unrealistic based on energy consumption alone. More like 2030. Unless the value of the USD drops a lot, then, of course it is totally possible.drop your unrealistic hope, bitcoin will more likely drop to $0.00001 and end before 2016 So I will be able to buy 100,000 BTC for a $1? 1,000,000 BTC for a $10? Sweet.the bitcoin pyramid scheme bubble has burst you won't buy any at all once bitcoin becomes worthless, just like you don't buy any shit altcoins now why bitcoin worthed $4xx few days ago? because you didn't buy those "cheap coins" at a higher price, you thought bitcoin was over-price at that time why bitcoin worths $509 now? because you don't buy it at at a higher price, you think bitcoin is over-price .. same as $0.00001, you will still think they are over-price or worthless Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: BurtW on August 24, 2014, 05:03:51 PM I think it would be great if bitcoin will be valued 252,000$ in 2020, I don't have any problem waiting 6 years :) That is probably unrealistic based on energy consumption alone. More like 2030. Unless the value of the USD drops a lot, then, of course it is totally possible.drop your unrealistic hope, bitcoin will more likely drop to $0.00001 and end before 2016 So I will be able to buy 100,000 BTC for a $1? 1,000,000 BTC for a $10? Sweet.the bitcoin pyramid scheme bubble has burst you won't buy any at all once bitcoin becomes worthless, just like you don't buy any shit altcoins now Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: zymafluo on August 24, 2014, 05:20:03 PM Bitcoin reaching 252,000$ is pure fantascience, I can't imagine such high prices, it would be a dream!
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: exocytosis on August 24, 2014, 05:23:41 PM It's funny when people extrapolate trends indefinitely, without taking into account the specific and non-repeatable historic circumstances that allowed us to reach this price in the first place.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future returns. Future price development doesn't have to resemble the past, just because you draw fancy lines on graphs and look for patterns that aren't there. Only in retrospect does your TA work. Look at the fundamentals instead. Look at how all the Average Joes are staying away, calling Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme. Look at how governments around the world are banning BTC. Look at how more and more banks are refusing to let their users transfer fiat to BTC exchanges. With no new fiat wired to the exchanges, how is price supposed to rise to the lofty heights you permabulls expect? I'm calling it now (and you can quote me on this in the future): Price on January 1st 2015 will be at least $100 lower than price on January 1st 2014. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: BurtW on August 24, 2014, 05:26:20 PM I'm calling it now (and you can quote me on this in the future): Price on January 1st 2015 will be at least $100 lower than price on January 1st 2014. Quoted. You are welcome. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Elwar on August 24, 2014, 05:27:07 PM Bitcoin reaching 252,000$ is pure fantascience, I can't imagine such high prices, it would be a dream! This is 8 years in Zimbabwe currency: http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2008/04/709px-ZWDvUSDchart.png Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: ssmc2 on August 24, 2014, 05:28:48 PM Expialitosis the Seer
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Markos on August 24, 2014, 05:40:01 PM I'm calling it now (and you can quote me on this in the future): Price on January 1st 2015 will be at least $100 lower than price on January 1st 2014. I'm more optimistic - about 500-600 USD in January 1st 2015, after huge crash to 200-300 USD ;) So I'm bullish in long term, but not now :P Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: blade87 on August 24, 2014, 05:49:07 PM I would imagine $252,000 to not be worth very much if this happens sometime within the next decade.
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: cinder on August 24, 2014, 05:55:15 PM Bitcoin reaching 252,000$ is pure fantascience, I can't imagine such high prices, it would be a dream! This is 8 years in Zimbabwe currency: http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2008/04/709px-ZWDvUSDchart.png Nice chart. The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Funzie on August 24, 2014, 05:58:30 PM Sonn, but not later than tommorow.
That what permabulls told me. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Elwar on August 24, 2014, 08:17:19 PM The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world. It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained. The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars. When that stops it all comes falling down. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: peeveepee on August 24, 2014, 09:42:25 PM The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world. It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained. The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars. When that stops it all comes falling down. Hard to stop something as gigantic as US. Not saying it will not decay over time. But I do not see it falling down during our life time. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: notme on August 24, 2014, 10:25:37 PM A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so. Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates: Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Can you list your assumptions? For starters, are you assuming constant power production and constant power price? Because neither of those will hold whatsoever on the timescales you're talking about. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: notme on August 24, 2014, 10:55:03 PM The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world. It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained. The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars. When that stops it all comes falling down. Hard to stop something as gigantic as US. Not saying it will not decay over time. But I do not see it falling down during our life time. Chinese and Russian investors are still soaking up as much high end US real estate as they can get their hands on, and investing heavily in our companies. They will have to start investing way more of their money at home before they will be willing to cut us loose. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: BurtW on August 24, 2014, 11:01:45 PM Can you list your assumptions? For starters, are you assuming constant power production and constant power price? Because neither of those will hold whatsoever on the timescales you're talking about. It is not a perfect model by any means that is why I called it "rough 'back of the envelope' estimates" . All values static and based on "today's" numbers:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 The rising worldwide power production will "help" us use a lower percentage of the overall power production. The rising cost of power will "help" us use less power. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: botany on August 25, 2014, 12:16:44 AM We should really specify 252K USD worth of 2014 $.
1 $ in 2014 is not equal to 1 $ in 1990. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: BurtW on August 25, 2014, 05:00:23 AM We should really specify 252K USD worth of 2014 $. That was assumed otherwise the answer is easy: as soon as the USD falls to that level even if the market value of BTC does not change.1 $ in 2014 is not equal to 1 $ in 1990. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Wilhelm on August 25, 2014, 06:21:35 AM The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world. It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained. The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars. When that stops it all comes falling down. Hard to stop something as gigantic as US. Not saying it will not decay over time. But I do not see it falling down during our life time. Why not? If they decouple oil from the dollar tomorrow the US is dead pretty quickly. If all countries want their gold from the federal reserve and find out there gold no longer exists the US will lose all credibility and be dead. Military power is a nice thing to have but it costs money and printing more won't help you. Even patriotic pro US soldiers want to get paid. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: romerun on August 25, 2014, 06:32:55 AM don't forget when fractional reserve comes to btcland, it will inflate more than 21M
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Wafel16 on August 25, 2014, 09:16:05 AM That is too high to be dream off.I mean in no time while we are alive,BTC would take such a high peak
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: DavidHume on August 25, 2014, 11:00:57 AM The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world. It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained. The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars. When that stops it all comes falling down. Hard to stop something as gigantic as US. Not saying it will not decay over time. But I do not see it falling down during our life time. Chinese and Russian investors are still soaking up as much high end US real estate as they can get their hands on, and investing heavily in our companies. They will have to start investing way more of their money at home before they will be willing to cut us loose. That is a way to hedge the dollar holding and a good way to invest. High end real estate in China and Russia are actually a lot more expensive than US. Not to mention the perk of having clean air, clean water, good neighbors and good infrastructure in the US. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: robyone on August 25, 2014, 11:47:06 AM you should understand - if that happened too many people (holding just a few BTCs) would become rich and value of money would be lost.
on planet earth system works in this way - 90% of whole people are poor and supporting 10% wealthy. it is impossible for 10% to be poor and 90% wealthy, this would bring value of money down and again would benefit only 10% that are the richest. or you think majority of people on planet earth can be rich in a couple of years from now and live happily ever after, most people owning yachts, expensive cars big houses? Where would you build so many houses for every rich person and who would build the houses if most people were rich? :D Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: bitebits on August 25, 2014, 05:15:12 PM you should understand - if that happened too many people (holding just a few BTCs) would become rich and value of money would be lost. on planet earth system works in this way - 90% of whole people are poor and supporting 10% wealthy. it is impossible for 10% to be poor and 90% wealthy, this would bring value of money down and again would benefit only 10% that are the richest. or you think majority of people on planet earth can be rich in a couple of years from now and live happily ever after, most people owning yachts, expensive cars big houses? Where would you build so many houses for every rich person and who would build the houses if most people were rich? :D 1. Only a few people hold bitcoins 2. When the price rises over time, those few will sell Result: 1% is holding 90% of the bitcoins. Just like fiat. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: crocko on August 25, 2014, 05:27:59 PM you should understand - if that happened too many people (holding just a few BTCs) would become rich and value of money would be lost. on planet earth system works in this way - 90% of whole people are poor and supporting 10% wealthy. it is impossible for 10% to be poor and 90% wealthy, this would bring value of money down and again would benefit only 10% that are the richest. or you think majority of people on planet earth can be rich in a couple of years from now and live happily ever after, most people owning yachts, expensive cars big houses? Where would you build so many houses for every rich person and who would build the houses if most people were rich? :D There are some expensive products to buy if the BTC price will hit $250,000: cars, jets, mansions, yachts, jewelry, cloths etc. You will need at least 10 BTC / person to have these. Don't worry, the "Bitcoin Milionaires" will be just regular persons who improved their life by holding and selling BTC. Very few of them will be rich (Winklevoss, Karpeles) like Rockefeller / B.Gates etc And because Bitcoin it is limited to 21 mil coins, and not all these coins will be mined in our lifetime because of the diff., and many more BTC are "lost" by the people who damaged their "cold storage" / lost passwords etc., I dare to say: Bitcoin it is scarce and this will make it more valuable. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: ThatDGuy on August 25, 2014, 05:34:05 PM you should understand - if that happened too many people (holding just a few BTCs) would become rich and value of money would be lost. on planet earth system works in this way - 90% of whole people are poor and supporting 10% wealthy. it is impossible for 10% to be poor and 90% wealthy, this would bring value of money down and again would benefit only 10% that are the richest. or you think majority of people on planet earth can be rich in a couple of years from now and live happily ever after, most people owning yachts, expensive cars big houses? Where would you build so many houses for every rich person and who would build the houses if most people were rich? :D There are some expensive products to buy if the BTC price will hit $250,000: cars, jets, mansions, yachts, jewelry, cloths etc. You will need at least 10 BTC / person to have these. Don't worry, the "Bitcoin Milionaires" will be just regular persons who improved their life by holding and selling BTC. Very few of them will be rich (Winklevoss, Karpeles) like Rockefeller / B.Gates etc And because Bitcoin it is limited to 21 mil coins, and not all these coins will be mined in our lifetime because of the diff., and many more BTC are "lost" by the people who damaged their "cold storage" / lost passwords etc., I dare to say: Bitcoin it is scarce and this will make it more valuable. Correct - and it will be progressively more scarce through reward halving while awareness and ease-of-use through infrastructure increase. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: crocko on August 25, 2014, 05:51:19 PM I believe that in the future 1 full BTC will have a value too high for the regular people.
They will can afford to purchase only fractions of 1 BTC, like BITS ( http://www.coindesk.com/breaking-down-btc-bit-by-bit/ ) Only the lucky ones who are holding will hit the jackpot 8) Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: maker88 on August 25, 2014, 06:00:45 PM I'm calling it now (and you can quote me on this in the future): Price on January 1st 2015 will be at least $100 lower than price on January 1st 2014. Quoted. You are welcome. For reference, the price of btc jan 1st 2014 was <755 Good luck to both parties on your bets. Oh what exocytosis won't put any money down? Gee imagine that, a bear without the balls to back up his predictions with reasoning or capital. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: greenlion on August 25, 2014, 06:11:22 PM Can you list your assumptions? For starters, are you assuming constant power production and constant power price? Because neither of those will hold whatsoever on the timescales you're talking about. It is not a perfect model by any means that is why I called it "rough 'back of the envelope' estimates" . All values static and based on "today's" numbers:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 The rising worldwide power production will "help" us use a lower percentage of the overall power production. The rising cost of power will "help" us use less power. The hidden assumption that everything except electricity is free causes this model to overestimate energy consumption by at least a factor of 3-4 if not more based on current costs. The fixed costs in mining are way too high to justify electricity consumption alone as the criteria for profitability. While it's true that an existing operation with money already sunk in capital expenditures is going to be closer to the assumption of this model as far as the cutoff point to stop operating specific equipment, the bitcoin price has to plausibly cover fixed costs for a new operation and not just electricity. In the realm of even just hobbyist basement type setups, it's almost inconceivable that mining equipment would ever even come close to energy cost - equipment cost parity over its entire marginally-profitable lifetime, until some point in the non-foreseeable future where improvements in equipment efficiency radically stagnate. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: BurtW on August 25, 2014, 07:55:29 PM Can you list your assumptions? For starters, are you assuming constant power production and constant power price? Because neither of those will hold whatsoever on the timescales you're talking about. It is not a perfect model by any means that is why I called it "rough 'back of the envelope' estimates" . All values static and based on "today's" numbers:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 The rising worldwide power production will "help" us use a lower percentage of the overall power production. The rising cost of power will "help" us use less power. The hidden assumption that everything except electricity is free causes this model to overestimate energy consumption by at least a factor of 3-4 if not more based on current costs. The fixed costs in mining are way too high to justify electricity consumption alone as the criteria for profitability. While it's true that an existing operation with money already sunk in capital expenditures is going to be closer to the assumption of this model as far as the cutoff point to stop operating specific equipment, the bitcoin price has to plausibly cover fixed costs for a new operation and not just electricity. In the realm of even just hobbyist basement type setups, it's almost inconceivable that mining equipment would ever even come close to energy cost - equipment cost parity over its entire marginally-profitable lifetime, until some point in the non-foreseeable future where improvements in equipment efficiency radically stagnate. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: notme on August 26, 2014, 02:10:56 AM Can you list your assumptions? For starters, are you assuming constant power production and constant power price? Because neither of those will hold whatsoever on the timescales you're talking about. It is not a perfect model by any means that is why I called it "rough 'back of the envelope' estimates" . All values static and based on "today's" numbers:https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0 The rising worldwide power production will "help" us use a lower percentage of the overall power production. The rising cost of power will "help" us use less power. Both of which are why your "estimates" would better be described as "upper bounds" for the portion of energy production used. As for some estimates I have gathered from people in the US power industry with knowledge of such things, the expect power costs to go up 2-5X in the next 20 years, barring a quick and tremendous surge in new nuclear construction. That is very unlikely to happen since no new nuclear power construction projects have been initialized since the 1980s and the coal, gas, and renewable industries can easily stir up the emotional argument against any proposed projects. All that said, the US is only 4% of the world's population, so maybe overall it won't be so bad. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: notme on August 26, 2014, 02:32:14 AM The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world. It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained. The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars. When that stops it all comes falling down. Hard to stop something as gigantic as US. Not saying it will not decay over time. But I do not see it falling down during our life time. Why not? If they decouple oil from the dollar tomorrow the US is dead pretty quickly. The US knows this. Why do you think anybody who has gone public with such plans has been invaded? Quote If all countries want their gold from the federal reserve and find out there gold no longer exists the US will lose all credibility and be dead. Everybody already knows it is mostly gone. So far, the markets don't seem to think it's worth the pain a USD collapse would cause to everybody who depends on us importing their crap. Quote Military power is a nice thing to have but it costs money and printing more won't help you. Even patriotic pro US soldiers want to get paid. Printing more seems to be working fine so far. We also sell lots of military hardware to both sides of any conflict that pops up, produce much of the exportable food in the world, and are now a major energy exporter. .... So, oil is tied to the dollar, and this tie is backed with bombs. Food, military hardware, and energy are what we export, and anyone worth worrying about exports mostly unimportant consumer goods. Don't get me wrong. I see the B.S., but I don't think any foreign powers can kill the game any time in the next couple decades. What may very well take down the US, however, is the growing income inequality and the absolute FACT that the majority of the population are either debt slaves or so poor they can barely make rent. That will be our undoing, not the world waking up. The world's leaders know what game they are playing and it's not worth rocking the boat. And the world's citizens are too busy trying to make a living, just like the average American. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: BurtW on August 26, 2014, 02:46:00 AM ^^^ Very good post notme.
Both of which are why your "estimates" would better be described as "upper bounds" for the portion of energy production used. Yes that would be a better term.Rising energy costs will bring down the amount of power the Bitcoin network can afford. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: giveBTCpls on August 26, 2014, 05:21:36 PM I believe that in the future 1 full BTC will have a value too high for the regular people. They will can afford to purchase only fractions of 1 BTC, like BITS ( http://www.coindesk.com/breaking-down-btc-bit-by-bit/ ) Only the lucky ones who are holding will hit the jackpot 8) Do you think in 2024, you'll be able to buy a car and a house with 1 BTC? thats what matters. It's all about purchasing power, not some USD equivalence. 8) Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Wekkel on August 27, 2014, 05:34:43 AM I'm calling it now (and you can quote me on this in the future): Price on January 1st 2015 will be at least $100 lower than price on January 1st 2014. Quoted. You are welcome. A $100 variance in price over a 1 year time span is well inside Bicoin's price fluctuations. I would be more impressed calling $10 by that time. This prediction is meaningless for the long term being discussed here. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Wary on August 27, 2014, 11:37:48 AM A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. It's new (for me, at least :)) and important consideration. However, I can't see how cost of power could set any limit to the bitcoin price.... So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so. Say, cost of all world electrical power is 1 zillion USD. And cost of all yearly mined coins is ten times more of it: 10 zillions USD. Does it mean that price of bitcoin will fall tenfold? No. It means that price of power will grow tenfold. And most of this power will be used for mining. There is no limits. What's more, I can't even see why should we want such limits. The goal of prices is to indicate the best use of resources. If we ignore such indicator, we are misallocating resources, using them not in the best way possible. Why should we want it? Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: exocytosis on August 27, 2014, 11:48:49 AM This prediction is meaningless for the long term being discussed here. How about this: Bitcoin will never hit 252k USD. Not even close. In fact, ATH was reached last year. We won't ever get back to prices over a thousand dollars. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Wekkel on August 27, 2014, 02:36:10 PM This prediction is meaningless for the long term being discussed here. How about this: Bitcoin will never hit 252k USD. Not even close. In fact, ATH was reached last year. We won't ever get back to prices over a thousand dollars. That's more like it. Quoted for posterity. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: mustang77 on August 27, 2014, 03:47:42 PM This prediction is meaningless for the long term being discussed here. How about this: Bitcoin will never hit 252k USD. Not even close. In fact, ATH was reached last year. We won't ever get back to prices over a thousand dollars. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: botany on August 27, 2014, 04:57:41 PM This prediction is meaningless for the long term being discussed here. How about this: Bitcoin will never hit 252k USD. Not even close. In fact, ATH was reached last year. We won't ever get back to prices over a thousand dollars. Hmm... I will stick my neck out and predict an ATH in the next 6 months. $1300 by Feb 2015. ;D Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: hannscryo on August 27, 2014, 05:24:58 PM It will reach 252,000$ for sure, but I don't think we will be still in this world when it will happen.
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Damnyo on August 27, 2014, 10:54:23 PM That graph makes total sense to me. We'll be rich grandpas ::)
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: NewLiberty on September 12, 2014, 05:24:20 AM The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world. Interesting question. Does this military produce more revenue or more cost for the USD? Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: CryptoCarmen on September 12, 2014, 08:57:26 AM lol that si lots of money, but let me try it.
2015 will peak to 6k 2016 wil peak to 30k 2017 will peak to 90k 2018 will not peak at all 2019 wil peak to 180k 2020 wil peak to well over 252k Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: zimmah on September 12, 2014, 12:25:42 PM several years from now
not before 2018 i assume Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: zimmah on September 12, 2014, 12:28:30 PM A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so. Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates: Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world that only means old miners become valuable again, but there's no way mining manufacturers can build miners fast enough to actually produce enough miners to consume that much energy. and even if they could, who would pay for all that? I mean paying up front, which is a risky thing knowing how mining manufacturers like to scam (BFL, Blackarrow, just to name a few) but still i think 252k bitcoin is a few years too early Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: picolo on September 12, 2014, 01:07:15 PM Dude i'll be like 35 in 2020. Can we go a bit faster? :-[ I think it would be great if bitcoin will be valued 252,000$ in 2020, I don't have any problem waiting 6 years :) The real question is how much Gold will you buy with 1Bitcoin in 2020; today you can buy 5/13th of an once but in 2020 one once may be 50,000$ so you will only buy 4onces with one bitcoin if a bitcoin is 252,000$ so 8 times more than today Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Wilhelm on September 12, 2014, 01:08:16 PM Dude i'll be like 35 in 2020. Can we go a bit faster? :-[ I think it would be great if bitcoin will be valued 252,000$ in 2020, I don't have any problem waiting 6 years :) The real question is how much Gold will you buy with 1Bitcoin in 2020; today you can buy 5/13th of an once but in 2020 one once may be 50,000$ so you will only buy 4onces with one bitcoin if a bitcoin is 252,000$ so 8 times more than today A full bar :D Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: minerpumpkin on September 12, 2014, 01:09:22 PM Well, at some point it very well could be. Today this number is too high, by any means! We will still need a lot of growth of Bitcoin to justify a price anywhere near that number. But if governments should adopt/recognize Bitcoin in a positive way and it becomes a primary store of wealth, or payment system, we may be en route to such a price!
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: djangocoin on September 12, 2014, 02:19:41 PM A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so. Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates: Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Do you take into account that in the future we will be generating a lot more power, have lower power & better performing computers? or are you assuming we're generating the same power today as we will in 2045? Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Odalv on September 12, 2014, 02:28:21 PM A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet. So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so. Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates: Code: Original target Subsidy Est Fees Power % of total world Do you take into account that in the future we will be generating a lot more power, have lower power & better performing computers? or are you assuming we're generating the same power today as we will in 2045? It does not matter. If one Bitcoin will cost $252,000 USD and you can mine 3600 a day then you(all miners together) can afford to spend $907 200 000 UDS/day on electricity to mine them. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: bitcoinbelieve on September 12, 2014, 02:32:34 PM according to Burt's assumptions, the current exponential growth trend line is way off and we need to slow down considerably. according to the current exponential growth trend line, we would reach ~250k/btc sometime July 2017. we'd need to do something like this... (which actually seems reasonable) https://www.tradingview.com/x/rkViTeiX/ who is burt guy? Is he reliable? Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: minerpumpkin on September 12, 2014, 02:36:49 PM It does not matter. If one Bitcoin will cost $252,000 USD and you can mine 3600 a day then you(all miners together) can afford to spend $907 200 000 UDS/day on electricity to mine them. Yeah, assuming that there still are 3600 BTC mined per day! I don't think we'll achieve a price of $252000 while the block-reward is still at 25 BTC! But you're right of course, and it's just another example of the self-regulatory beauty of bitcoin mining. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: fairglu on September 12, 2014, 02:46:22 PM Given the amount of dollars being printed, there is a non-negligible chance that when bitcoin is worth 252,000 USD those 252,000 USD may not have a purchasing power that is much above what 500 USD can buy today.
After all, an hypothetical 1913 bitcoin would have had the same purchasing power if valued at a few USD of 1913... Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: minerpumpkin on September 12, 2014, 02:50:59 PM Given the amount of dollars being printed, there is a non-negligible chance that when bitcoin is worth 252,000 USD those 252,000 USD may not have a purchasing power that is much above what 500 USD can buy today. After all, an hypothetical 1913 bitcoin would have had the same purchasing power if valued at a few USD of 1913... Yeah, a hyperinflation of the Dollar or any other major FIAT currency is an option, as well. Although I don't think this is going to happen anytime soon, it definitely is a possible outcome here. Do you think the Euro is more stable? Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Bonam on September 12, 2014, 03:02:41 PM Hyperinflation is usually a sign of complete collapse of a society and its economy. Despite the prevalence of doomsayers on these forums, people more well grounded in reality realize that the chance of this happening to the world (or even US) economy in the next little while is negligible. In fact, the far more common symptom of the modern style of economic malaise is very low interest rates and low inflation, rather than the other way around.
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Wekkel on September 12, 2014, 03:43:30 PM It's more reasonable to expect a policy of going in and out of deflation picking the winners (TBTF banks) than outright hyperinflation. The latter destroys everything.
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: minerpumpkin on September 12, 2014, 03:50:55 PM Hyperinflation is usually a sign of complete collapse of a society and its economy. Despite the prevalence of doomsayers on these forums, people more well grounded in reality realize that the chance of this happening to the world (or even US) economy in the next little while is negligible. In fact, the far more common symptom of the modern style of economic malaise is very low interest rates and low inflation, rather than the other way around. Hyperinflation would be an extreme example of a currency or economy failing, yes. And I don't think that the US economy will fail in such a way! There's always been inflation when it comes to the dollar. Just compare its buying power decrease over the last decades! And yet it's still a relatively stable currency compared to the rest of the world. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: BurtW on September 12, 2014, 05:00:28 PM who is burt guy? Is he reliable? LOL. No. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: exocytosis on September 12, 2014, 06:44:38 PM You'll be lucky if BTC ever gets back up to 480 USD, if only for a short while.
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: spazzdla on September 12, 2014, 06:55:35 PM Hyperinflation is usually a sign of complete collapse of a society and its economy. Despite the prevalence of doomsayers on these forums, people more well grounded in reality realize that the chance of this happening to the world (or even US) economy in the next little while is negligible. In fact, the far more common symptom of the modern style of economic malaise is very low interest rates and low inflation, rather than the other way around. If the BRICs put massive sell orders on all of the realstate they have bought up here..... all the gold in fort knox * 1000 won't save us. We have assumed the BRICs nations will not sell all of the debt they have bought or property... we have been surrounded.. we have given up all of our weapons.. Soon we will beg for forginvess for the sins of the central banks.. May China have mercy. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: FUR11 on September 12, 2014, 10:20:03 PM I guess we may see that price in about 2023. There have to be at least 5 more bubbles before we get into that price range, in my opinion. But if the adoption continues the way it does, it isn't very unrealistic!
Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Biodom on September 13, 2014, 02:04:55 PM 252K is more like a dream and is not a realistic number when bitcoin is at less than $500.
Surely, it is theoretically possible, but the main question is what is the probability of this happening. Interestingly, I think that option analysis is the best approximation. Current price is probably a sum of mining cost (value) plus option on future price. If you go to option calculator at http://www.hoadley.net/options/optiongraphs.aspx? and input 252000 as a target stock (BTC)price, 300 as a intrinsic value (cost of mining) and 6000 days (~16.4 years), then you get the fair option price of ~164 (after putting 100% as volatility and 0% as dividend). $300+$164=approximate current BTC price. If this analysis is correct, than current BTC price suggests that $252000 is possible in 2030-2031. Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: zimmah on September 13, 2014, 02:14:01 PM 2 years ago people would never guess bitcoin would reach $1000
$252,000 is not impossible or even improbable, it will just take a few more years Title: Re: When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD? Post by: Biodom on September 13, 2014, 02:35:53 PM 2 years ago people would never guess bitcoin would reach $1000 $252,000 is not impossible or even improbable, it will just take a few more years yes, 16-17 more :) |
