When will bitcoin hit 252,000 USD?

[blade87]

I would imagine $252,000 to not be worth very much if this happens sometime within the next decade.

[cinder]

Bitcoin reaching 252,000$ is pure fantascience, I can't imagine such high prices, it would be a dream!

This is 8 years in Zimbabwe currency:

Nice chart.

The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world.

[Funzie]

Sonn, but not later than tommorow.

That what permabulls told me.

[Elwar]

The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world.

It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained.

The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars.

When that stops it all comes falling down.

[peeveepee]

The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world.

It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained.

The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars.

When that stops it all comes falling down.

Hard to stop something as gigantic as US.

Not saying it will not decay over time. But I do not see it falling down during our life time.

[notme]

A price of $252,000 in era 0 (50 BTC/block) would have caused the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 30% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

A price of $252,000 in this era, era 1 (25 BTC/block) would cause the Bitcoin network to attempt to consume about 15% of all the electrical power produced on the planet.

So, in order to keep the Bitcoin network from attempting to consume more than 1% of all the power produced we should all hope that the price does not reach that level until at least era 5 - about 2029 or so.

Of course all of these numbers are rough "back of the envelope" estimates:

Code:

    Original target     Subsidy   Est Fees  Power % of total world
Era   starting year   BTC/block   BTC/hour     GW power production
--- --------------- ----------- ---------- ------ ----------------
  0            2009 50.00000000 0.00000000 680.40           29.44%
  1            2013 25.00000000 0.00000000 340.20           14.72%
  2            2017 12.50000000 0.00000000 170.10            7.36%
  3            2021  6.25000000 0.00000000  85.05            3.68%
  4            2025  3.12500000 0.00000000  42.53            1.84%
  5            2029  1.56250000 0.00000000  21.26            0.92%
  6            2033  0.78125000 1.31250000  13.61            0.59%
  7            2037  0.39062500 3.65625000  13.61            0.59%
  8            2041  0.19531250 4.82812500  13.61            0.59%
  9            2045  0.09765625 5.41406250  13.61            0.59%

Can you list your assumptions?  For starters, are you assuming constant power production and constant power price?  Because neither of those will hold whatsoever on the timescales you're talking about.

[notme]

The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world.

It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained.

The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars.

When that stops it all comes falling down.

Hard to stop something as gigantic as US.

Not saying it will not decay over time. But I do not see it falling down during our life time.

Chinese and Russian investors are still soaking up as much high end US real estate as they can get their hands on, and investing heavily in our companies.  They will have to start investing way more of their money at home before they will be willing to cut us loose.

[BurtW]

Can you list your assumptions?  For starters, are you assuming constant power production and constant power price?  Because neither of those will hold whatsoever on the timescales you're talking about.

It is not a perfect model by any means that is why I called it "rough 'back of the envelope' estimates" .  All values static and based on "today's" numbers:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=694401.0

The rising worldwide power production will "help" us use a lower percentage of the overall power production.
The rising cost of power will "help" us use less power.

[botany]

We should really specify 252K USD worth of 2014 $.
1 $ in 2014 is not equal to 1 $ in 1990.

[BurtW]

We should really specify 252K USD worth of 2014 $.
1 $ in 2014 is not equal to 1 $ in 1990.

That was assumed otherwise the answer is easy:  as soon as the USD falls to that level even if the market value of BTC does not change.

[Wilhelm]

The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world.

It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained.

The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars.

When that stops it all comes falling down.

Hard to stop something as gigantic as US.

Not saying it will not decay over time. But I do not see it falling down during our life time.

Why not?

If they decouple oil from the dollar tomorrow the US is dead pretty quickly.
If all countries want their gold from the federal reserve and find out there gold no longer exists the US will lose all credibility and be dead.

Military power is a nice thing to have but it costs money and printing more won't help you. Even patriotic pro US soldiers want to get paid.

[romerun]

don't forget when fractional reserve comes to btcland, it will inflate more than 21M

[Wafel16]

That is too high to be dream off.I mean in no time while we are alive,BTC would take such a high peak

[DavidHume]

The question is, is is fair to compare USD to Zimbabwe when US still have the strongest military in the world.

It is the strongest military today because it is paid for with higher and higher debt that cannot be maintained.

The dollar is a liability backed solely by the military which exists solely because countries are willing to borrow our dollars.

When that stops it all comes falling down.

Hard to stop something as gigantic as US.

Not saying it will not decay over time. But I do not see it falling down during our life time.

Chinese and Russian investors are still soaking up as much high end US real estate as they can get their hands on, and investing heavily in our companies.  They will have to start investing way more of their money at home before they will be willing to cut us loose.

That is a way to hedge the dollar holding and a good way to invest.

High end real estate in China and Russia are actually a lot more expensive than US. Not to mention the perk of having clean air, clean water, good neighbors and good infrastructure in the US.

[robyone]

you should understand - if that happened too many people (holding just a few BTCs) would become rich and value of money would be lost.
on planet earth system works in this way - 90% of whole people are poor and supporting 10% wealthy.
it is impossible for 10% to be poor and 90% wealthy, this would bring value of money down and again would benefit only 10% that are the richest.

or you think majority of people on planet earth can be rich in a couple of years from now and live happily ever after, most people owning yachts, expensive cars big houses? Where would you build so many houses for every rich person and who would build the houses if most people were rich?

[bitebits]

you should understand - if that happened too many people (holding just a few BTCs) would become rich and value of money would be lost.
on planet earth system works in this way - 90% of whole people are poor and supporting 10% wealthy.
it is impossible for 10% to be poor and 90% wealthy, this would bring value of money down and again would benefit only 10% that are the richest.

or you think majority of people on planet earth can be rich in a couple of years from now and live happily ever after, most people owning yachts, expensive cars big houses? Where would you build so many houses for every rich person and who would build the houses if most people were rich?

1. Only a few people hold bitcoins
2. When the price rises over time, those few will sell

Result: 1% is holding 90% of the bitcoins. Just like fiat.

[crocko]

you should understand - if that happened too many people (holding just a few BTCs) would become rich and value of money would be lost.
on planet earth system works in this way - 90% of whole people are poor and supporting 10% wealthy.
it is impossible for 10% to be poor and 90% wealthy, this would bring value of money down and again would benefit only 10% that are the richest.

or you think majority of people on planet earth can be rich in a couple of years from now and live happily ever after, most people owning yachts, expensive cars big houses? Where would you build so many houses for every rich person and who would build the houses if most people were rich?

There are some expensive products to buy if the BTC price will hit $250,000: cars, jets, mansions, yachts, jewelry, cloths etc.
You will need at least 10 BTC / person to have these.
Don't worry, the "Bitcoin Milionaires" will be just regular persons who improved their life by holding and selling BTC. Very few of them will be rich (Winklevoss, Karpeles) like Rockefeller / B.Gates  etc
And because Bitcoin it is limited to 21 mil coins, and not all these coins will be mined  in our lifetime because of the diff., and many more BTC are "lost"  by the people who damaged their "cold storage" / lost passwords etc., I dare to say: Bitcoin it is scarce and this will make  it more valuable.

[ThatDGuy]

you should understand - if that happened too many people (holding just a few BTCs) would become rich and value of money would be lost.
on planet earth system works in this way - 90% of whole people are poor and supporting 10% wealthy.
it is impossible for 10% to be poor and 90% wealthy, this would bring value of money down and again would benefit only 10% that are the richest.

or you think majority of people on planet earth can be rich in a couple of years from now and live happily ever after, most people owning yachts, expensive cars big houses? Where would you build so many houses for every rich person and who would build the houses if most people were rich?

There are some expensive products to buy if the BTC price will hit $250,000: cars, jets, mansions, yachts, jewelry, cloths etc.
You will need at least 10 BTC / person to have these.
Don't worry, the "Bitcoin Milionaires" will be just regular persons who improved their life by holding and selling BTC. Very few of them will be rich (Winklevoss, Karpeles) like Rockefeller / B.Gates  etc
And because Bitcoin it is limited to 21 mil coins, and not all these coins will be mined  in our lifetime because of the diff., and many more BTC are "lost"  by the people who damaged their "cold storage" / lost passwords etc., I dare to say: Bitcoin it is scarce and this will make  it more valuable.

Correct - and it will be progressively more scarce through reward halving while awareness and ease-of-use through infrastructure increase.

[crocko]

I believe that in the future 1 full BTC will have a value too high for the regular people.
They will can afford to purchase only fractions of 1 BTC, like BITS  ( http://www.coindesk.com/breaking-down-btc-bit-by-bit/ )
Only the lucky ones who are holding will hit the jackpot  

[maker88]

I'm calling it now (and you can quote me on this in the future): Price on January 1st 2015 will be at least $100 lower than price on January 1st 2014.

Quoted.  You are welcome.

For reference, the price of btc jan 1st 2014 was <755

Good luck to both parties on your bets. Oh what exocytosis won't put any money down? Gee imagine that, a bear without the balls to back up his predictions with reasoning or capital.