Bitcoin Forum

All investments, even the most lucrative, go through years and sometimes decades of under-performance.

Observe the following:
https://i.imgur.com/1YsUkuf.png

Apple has gone through much more corrections that Bitcoin ever has.  But shrewd investors saw a fundamentally strong company, held, and got rich.

https://i.imgur.com/uLQx8FO.png

People looking for a 'safe' investment in Gold must be shitting themselves right now

https://i.imgur.com/BNk6gE2.png

ARM is supposed to go to the moon, like Bitcoin.  But where is the rally? Are people loosing interest? Is ARM failing?  Sounds familiar...

https://i.imgur.com/r5JM9Uo.png

That is one hell of a 'capitulation'.  But there are in fact loads of these deep, deep corrections  - some of which cut deeper than the preceding rally.  IBM has had dozens of Bitcoin's 2011 corrections. But that has had ZERO influence on the longer term trend and fundamentals of the company.


https://i.imgur.com/BgFvwvu.png

Now look at this beauty.  Look at how easy we have had it.  We can barely call 2014 a 'capitulation', or even a 'correction' compared to the SAFER investments above.  For Bitcoin to truly go through a set-back, the price would need to fall to $100.  And even then, it will have zero impact on the price in 2018.

If you do not have patience, go waste your money in Vegas.  If you do not have vision, go waste your money on booze.  If you have common sense, invest a small percentage of your money in Bitcoin and hodl for at least 10 years. 

Remember, if you are not on the train you can NEVER go to the moon

bitcoin is going to nowhere but down!

final capitulation incoming!

looks like failllling is a bot re-posting the same comment over different threads :)

Nice chart.

The assumption of bitcoin going to 1M is too optimistic. The fundamental and market usage for bitcoin might be strong, but I do not see how this correlated to price going upward. Remember, 100 usd per coin or 1000 usd per coin doesn't change how the protocol work.

It's a "get rich quick but not that quick" scheme.

I think we just have to revise the "hype cycle" graph, and accept that we are at a point where we won't follow that exponential trendline anymore.

I think we will stay at these prices for longer than people imagine.

hahahaha exactly what I thought reading the first post   ;D ;D

It amazes me that there are people out there who throw away their hard-earned money on daily and weekly lotteries for years/decades, but scoff at the idea of buying and holding bitcoin for at least 12 months.  Bitcoin is about a 1M : 1 chance of a return over a jackpot lottery ticket.

I guess it's the same mentality though, wanting just to get rich quick or not at all.

Bitcoin adoption is still in early stage. $6 billions is just a tiny drop in ocean of finances. It's new technology and it's expanding.
Imagine BTC price when at least 1% of world population start using it.

So true.

Money is better spent on bitcoin than on lottery ticket while the odd of getting nice payoff is better on bitcoin.

People who buy lottery tickets instead of bitcoin are impatient for a win and want a big payout tomorrow. Bitcoin buyers must have enough patience to wait 5 years for a really big win.

It does not affect the protocol, but price (and therefore market capitalization) makes a difference in the economic viability of a currency. For example, if a bitcoin were still worth $1, it would be impossible to buy a moderately luxurious estate such as this using BTC:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/%28undisclosed-Address%29-Beverly-Hills-CA-90210/2105605053_zpid/
(only a bit over 13 million BTC have been mined until now).
As soon as transactions regarding houses, cars, ships, or planes using bitcoins become common, a single bitcoin must be worth much more than $10,000. $1M isn't really far off.

Of course, this assumes that bitcoin is the only or at least the major cryptocurrency in use. Unlike gold, which can't really be replaced by anything else, bitcoin could just be replaced or supplemented by other crypto currencies.

Onkel Paul

Every photo that you posted on the OP is a different company and every market for example is also a world.

Of course Bitcoin is going up but the most important thing is not the price... the most important thing is the future that BTC can bring to us as a payment alternative to the $, € or other currencies, don't you think so?

To conclude: I like that 'Bitcoin logistic model'  :D

it's exectly what an ponzi pyramid scheme introducer always tell you "imagine your profit when at least 1% of world population join your affiliate programs"

however no matter how good does this sound like it's still a fake dream, bitcoin is not going to anywhere but down, kiss $500 goodbye!

 :D

Only to same extent that stocks etc. can make people rich 'quick'

So, you states that bitcoin is dead for you and you have no interest on it. But why are you wasting all your time to sit here on bitcoin forum and repeatedly post your doomsday comments in every thread ?

I trust more those charts when we are on the upper part of the trendline, now it's too hard to believe that we are heading to 1m.

Maybe it is not any more - but that graps shows that for those who bought in 2010 it worked pretty well as a get rich quick scheme wasn't it?

those who bought in 2013 bubble and early 2014 lost so much $$$$ isn't it?

to quote Vladimir "bitcoin isn't a get rich scheme, it's a get rich slow scheme."

lol. five years is still a short time!

but yay! +1 for this post :)

It depends, if bitcoin will be go up 1000% from here, 5 years is a short period for sure.

Agreed, most people don't realise just what a chump change sum of money 6G$ is from a global perspective.

Also many young bitcoiners are tweaked up on buzz drinks and computer games. (shakes fist "giiit of my lawn")

They are only satisfied when the chart is in expo mode, if it's bumbling along sideways they feel like a junkie without a needle.

I am confident we will see a continued noisy rise, and it will retouch or cross the expo line again.

EDIT: quoting OP because he nails it...

Let me get this straight, you say "it's not get rich quick scheme" yet you see bitcoin at $ 1 000 000 in 2018?

Apparently for some people "quick" means "in a few months" lmao

Why thank you  ;)

I made this because a lot of people need a wake-up call and realize that a bad year for Bitcoin is not that bad in the grand schemes of things

Don't forget that for some that bought at prices way higher, Bitcoin has been a get poor scheme.

And taking in account the current trend, this category might get wider on the short-term.

Very nice presentation OP!  :)

Great thread!

Bitcoin "investors" need to be playing the long game. Spend some coins. Ask your favorite merchants if they accept bitcoin yet. Let it be known that you accept bitcoin for your goods or services.

This reminds me of a story from the bible:

“Again, it will be like a man going on a journey, who called his servants and entrusted his wealth to them. To one he gave five bitcoins, to another two bitcoins, and to another one bitcoin, each according to his ability. Then he went on his journey. The man who had received five bitcoins went at once and put his money to work and gained five more. So also, the one with two bitcoins gained two more. But the man who had received one bitcoin went off, printed a paper wallet and hid his master’s money.

“After a long time the master of those servants returned and settled accounts with them. The man who had received five bitcoins brought the other five. ‘Master,’ he said, ‘you entrusted me with five bitcoins. See, I have gained five more.’

“His master replied, ‘Well done, good and faithful servant! You have been faithful with a few things; I will put you in charge of many things. Come and share your master’s happiness!’

“The man with two bitcoins also came. ‘Master,’ he said, ‘you entrusted me with two bitcoins; see, I have gained two more.’

“His master replied, ‘Well done, good and faithful servant! You have been faithful with a few things; I will put you in charge of many things. Come and share your master’s happiness!’

“Then the man who had received one bitcoin came. ‘Master,’ he said, ‘I knew that you are a hard man, harvesting where you have not sown and gathering where you have not scattered seed. So I was afraid and went out and hid your bitcoin in a paper wallet. See, here is what belongs to you.’

“His master replied, ‘You wicked, lazy servant! So you knew that I harvest where I have not sown and gather where I have not scattered seed? Well then, you should have put my money to work, so that when I returned I would have received it back with interest.

“‘So take the bitcoin from him and give it to the one who has ten coins. For whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them. And throw that worthless servant outside, into the darkness, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.’

Applicable to a stable currency that gains no value itself.  Not applicable to Bitcoin.

As long as it is a get rich scheme, I don't care.  ;D

Also feel like the November bubble going to the moon was far too premature and correction will take a lot of time.
But well, others have gone to the moon and havent anymore in for over like 50 years.

:)
You could modify this, letting the two invest in real estate and oxen, and the third could be a hodler!

Except it WAS a get rich quick scheme if you got in early 2013 or before and held on til November 2013.... what other opportunity did we have to see that much of a return? If I put in $10K in Jan 2013 I could have been pretty "rich" by November and 10 months to become rich is hella quick


We just got unlucky and may have to wait several years before we see that type of traction again

If we know for sure it will go up in value, then it is not unlucky.

Unlucky means if you buy 10k worth of bitcoin today and then it only worth less than 500 dollars a few years from now.

Rich is relative.  Your scenario would barely afford a shithole house around these parts.  For others, they'd be set for life.

Set for life is also relative. Look up what Hammer-Time means nowadays :P

If I can buy my shithole house and don't have to pay mortgage then I am a happy person.
Ofcourse it would be more fun to own a G650 private jet and travel the planet.... :D

Bitcoin is a currency and an investment for me. I expect to gain from it but do not expect it to be quick. Everyone's definition of "quick" is different. My "quick" is a few weeks, so bitcoin is not a get rich "quick" scheme for me.  ;D

Quote this "You will never get rich quick enough"  8)

bitcoin is an enrich the world quick scheme

Yes that's why I said "rich"


and if you put in $10K in Jan 2013 when bitcoin was $13.... you could have easily left with $770K in November 2013 (that's $770,000 in liquid wealth which 99% of Americans don't have).... may not be rich enough to buy a mansion in your neighborhood but that is no joke of an amount. If this kind of return isn't considered a "get rich quick" scheme then I dunno what is

Love it.  Well said.

the question is not how quick we will get rich. the question is what do we want to do for it to make it happen.


during the 90ies in germany some smart insurance companies started selling "finger insurances" to physicians, paying out millions of d-marks in case of accidental loss of fingers.

guess what happened ?

lots of physicians suddenly lost their fingers....  that's what people do to get out of the rat race...



us typing our fingers off in this forum is not in the same league - damn, we are so privileged  :D


http://daserste.ndr.de/panorama/archiv/1999/erste7274.html

Bitcoin is in its infancy. A 6 billion market cap is not even negligible in global terms. Ill give it 10 years to really reach some potential! 100x market cap is what is easily possible in 10 years with some adoption.

If the price of bitcoin increases 15-20% annually over the next 30 years I will be very happy!

I predict you will be very happy! :D

This is spot on OP, all these johnny-come-lately "investors" start squealing like stuck pigs whenever prices take a dip.
Most have probably never invested in the securities market because seasoned investors do not have expectations of
a "commodity" like these amateurs do with elevated returns and decreased time frames. These newbies are going to
get burned trying to play the bitcoin game. With bitcoin, your "profit" time horizon has to be in months and years, not
hours and days...unless you are day-trading.

If you're a bystander hoping to get rich quick in a short period of time get ready for a good beating. There are those
who are playing vicious mind games in the forum hoping for destabilization. I'm not going to name names but keep your
wits about you.

Cough-cough-fallling-cough

How much do a normal physicians make during that time that many are willing to give up fingers for a quick money?

Always thought lawyer and doctor are usually on the high end of middle class if not upper. If they are going to resort to this sort of tactics to get out of rat race, imagine what the rest of the population will do.

Draw some funny charts claiming some weird payment system is gonna be worth gazillions hoping to convince others to drive the price up to make big bucks?

Uh, i´ld better get my coat .. ;)

Your not making any sense.  If a person lost money that does not make it a bubble it could have been a bad time to buy, simple as that.  MTGox catastrophe was an unexpected event but you don't mention it in your post.  Calling a unforeseeable negative event a bublbe is misleading and disingenuous.  When a person losses on stocks do you call it a bubble?  You do realize Bitcoin isn't made for everyone to win all the time correct?     

This thread has become more relevant  ;) No one ever said Bitcoin would be an easy investment to live with

I wouldn't call Bitcoin a scheme at all. It's a useful tool that can be utilized for various purposed. And the most striking ones are store and simple transfer of value. That it has inherent characteristics that may remind people of schemes, esp. Ponzi ones, is just a byproduct.

The one feature that is attracting everybody to bitcoin is the chance that its value might explode.  :)

Only the smart ones who enter in the game before the rest of the world.

I wouldn't call fallling vicious, persistent perhaps?

it all depends how much commerce and SAVINGS will being done with it.
If people en masse will want to save more than 6bil in bitcoin ($1 per earth inhabitant), there will be no coins for transactions, hence the price will move up (scarcity).

Persistent? That's an understatement.

http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/fud3.jpg (http://s664.photobucket.com/user/JimboToronto/media/fud3.jpg.html)http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/Spam-Can1.jpg (http://s664.photobucket.com/user/JimboToronto/media/Spam-Can1.jpg.html)

This is correct. It is the willingness to hold.

Transactions mean nothing. Velocity is just another measure of total production.

I completely agree. I don't know why people don't realize that bitcoin is not a store of value, but rather the value is in it as a tool for how the protocol works. You should expect bitcoin to appreciate in value a little bit as you hold it (because of time value of money), but to buy btc solely as an investment thinking you'll get rich quick is reckless.

Look like bitcoin is a get poor quick scheme lately.

Yes, it is more prudent to stay in BTC for the long run. Sure, if you've invested at a point where the price was about to go up five- or ten-fold you've made a very quick BTC - if you realised your gains. But apart from that, perseverance has proven to be the prime key to success in Bitcoin!

agreed

I think it's also worth considering how much the price could go up if the user base grows significantly and that is why people like to speculate how high Bitcoin can go if you ask me.  It's mostly because they think people will gravitate towards Bitcoin and the price could reach amazing highs but I tend to agree that talk of 1 million dollar Bitcoin is just fun to talk about I don't really expect that to happen until I see some astronomical acceptance of Bitcoin and even then who know what the future would holds.

It's a way to get rich but for those that think you can get rich quick from it, they are sadly mistaken. If you know what you are doing and you can buy and invest or sell on at the right times then you are able to become rich from it but it will be a slow process.

If you think you are smarter than anyone else, therefore buys bitcoins, and the less smart does not, it is a painstakingly slow get rich quick scheme.

If you on the other hand think you are medium smart, just quicker in action, and therefore buys bitcoins, the others will buy just afterwards, it is a get rich quick scheme.

If you are medium, and slow to act, or if you are just plain stupid, it is a get rich not so much scheme.

Obviously, as you can compute from this post, I am in the first group.

quick is a relative term.
you will be rich if you buy bitcoin today, how long you'll have to wait depends on how fast the world's central banks decide to destroy their fiat currencies.

considering the European central bank has just lowered the central bank deposit interest rate even deeper into the negative I'd say the worst case scenario is 15 years.

For early adopters, bitcoin was most definitely that.

Agreed but assuming bitcoin is so perfect in its creation that it could not possibly be supplanted by new entrant that is fundamentally superior in some way(s) is naive.  Every company or technology evolves over time and all are replaced by a different 2.0 eventually.  I think bitcoin is most similar to file sharing.  Its a disruptive system/protocol meant to shake up and re-write the rules in regards to financial transactions.  Think about how file sharing evolved.  The peer-to-peer decentralization in bitcoin came from the evolution of file sharing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_file_sharing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_file_sharing)

I love Bitcoin and have been an early supporter.  I don't think bitcoin is in danger of immanent collapse but I also don't think its too far out that it may be replaced by a 2.0 new entrant.  Possibly ethereum.  We'll see.
While there a few areas of concern with bitcoin in its present form by far the most troubling is the centralization of mining.  Its getting less decentralized and less peer-to-peer.

It was for the early adopters, for us is a get rich long term scheme  8)
and for the deniers now it will be a cry even more in the long run scheme  :-*