Bitcoin Forum

The last rally was set by chinese investors. When china banned btc last year, it started the btc decline that has lasted a year. There won't magically be another rally out of nowhere just because there has passed 1 year. Like most of you deluded people think; "it's been a year soon since the first big crash, surely a new rally is around the corner". NO. Unless China drops all BANS on BTC, BTC will stay in the shadow of its former glory. And the other altcoins are pretty much dead with absolutely no chance of resurrection.

Yes, I admit I invested around a little less than 7Kdollars and basically lost it all but it doesn't really affect my conclusion

.....But, but, but.... Argentina! Winkledouches! ETFs! GABI! World political turmoil will drive fiat into the ground and bitcoin to the moon -- no, Jupiter! Forget canned food and bullets, we need bitcoin!

Bullish.

Exceptttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt ttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt China never banned BTC.

eh i think it will slowly rise, no bubble though

What do you mean by "soon"? A few weeks? Or a few months? I expect some good news by the end of the year that will help bitcoin regain the $700 level.

Bitcoin is a bit less than half its peak value, so you must have almost half of your 7Kdollars left.

Good guess. If we stay awya from bad news then BTC hitting 700 by the end of the year is a realistic claim. And 1000 by the end of 2015.

I bought NMC @8, and LTC @37.

Then you are a fool and you deserve your loss.

Hey, that's kind of harsh. Personally, I immediately dump altcoins if the market moves against me. But I would have thought the Speculation forum was the one sanctuary for bagholders. I guess it's BTC bagholders only. ;D

If I am a fool or if I deserve it is irrelevant to the topic. The point of the subject is that we won't be seeing bullish rallies until at least 1 years ahead.
And the altcoins will probably die off while BTC keeps its stronghold at 500-700.

Maybe not.  It's impossible to know.  I do like to keep an eye on the frequency of posts/topics like this and sort of unscientifically judge whether they're on the rise or not, and if so, I take that as a sign to buy.  It's worked more than not.  But, honestly, I have no fucking clue what I'm doing.

Well thanks for your opinion.  Don't know yet if I'll completely ignore you, or give your lengthy analysis of the topic some consideration.

Well, the more people say that there won't be a rally, the more probable it becomes that there will be one!!!

I wouldn't bet on that.

For the last 4 years, bitcoin only run up when there was huge pessimism on the forum and crashed down hard when the forum was full of optimism and made recent new high.

Will this time be any different? Probably not. So buy when there are so many people claiming end of btc.

demand up, supply will eventually go down. I am patient. :)

In these doldrums, what kind of bad news is possible?

Nothing going on atm, and no news = good news  8)

The rally won't come before 80% has become bored and no longer thinks about Bitcoin's price. That's when we hit bottom.

Its coming alright, I've just been forced to sell a chunk due to a mild cash-flow crisis :)

My guess is we're already at that point, if not really close.

https://i.imgur.com/VM4Gdf5.png

I think it's safe to say those who came during the bubble have forgotten about it and left, leaving only serious loyal bitcoiners.

Let me take a selfie!

Perhaps, though looking at the Google trends chart and comparing to last summer, it looks like one more dip might be expected (if it were to play out the same). I think Google trends will jump up far after the market has taken off, though.

false.



yeah sure, I'm sure you're totally unbiased and not pissed that you sold for a huge loss. you ever see those charts that talk about the early adopters, then smart money, then the general public, then the laggards? you're a laggard. you also have based your entire no rally theory around a chinese ban on bitcoin that does not exist. do you have any other reasoning?

So other people will be the buyers in the next boom. There's a shit ton of non-Chinese people in the world.

Lost Circa 7k how did you manage that day trading ?,

since when was the general public in bitcoin

No one would expect that all of sudden the chinese would wake up eager for Bitcoins. You can't predict when the next rally will come, neither what will cause it. 
You are right to say that there is nothing that would justify a rally as far we can see, but you kind of overstimate how far we can see

China is not the only market out there.
Theres something brewing in Argentina that will give it a bump soon, maybe not as much everyone expects but that doesnt mean there wont be knock on panic buying from it. after that i think indonesia, maybe an african nation then i think india will be th next surprise buy rush prob next year.
plenty of new markets out there, and plenty of work to be done in the existing markets. theres plenty of new ground for btc to cover people, so many thread starters with negative attitude makes me suspicious ... who would benefit from lower prices i wonder...

same guys who put up the blocking walls.  they ain't interested in selling.  they're interested in stopping a price rise.

Funny, was kind of thinking the same thing (about you).

Almost all alts are shitcoins. They don't do anything useful or better. The one exception I can think of is whichever ones have better anonymity.

Remember what bitcoin is. It's a store of value. It's a currency. It's a transfer protocol. An alt has to do at least one of those meaningfully better to be worth real money, or add something useful that bitcoin can't integrate (such as anonymity, which is the only thing I can think of offhand).

This is kind of unsettling to watch.

I couldn't be a bigger proponent of Bitcoin. I talk about it constantly, I gave a speech at work (biotech) about it to a pretty large group of folks. I've bored my wife to death for hundreds of hours talking about how wonderful the whole thing is. I'm even spending most of my free time developing a Bitcoin business.

Having said all of that, there's no reason for the price to be as high as it is right now. It's rampant speculation, bots to drive the price up etc... Bitcoin might literally only be worth $20 right now. It's going to big some day in the distant future but all of this is just a giant hype cycle that will eventually subside. I do feel bad for all the folks right now dumping too much money into it because it IS going to go down quite a bit. There will be blood in the streets but then it will recover and slowly but surely hit levels we can't imagine now. 

Wow, nmc got up that high? I sold way too fucking soon. I had a shitload and traded them for btc. I think I had a few thousand as when I was mining they were worthless. Litecoin, I purchased about 800 and traded them for bitcoin when they hit the 5 dollar mark, so I should have waited on that one too...

Yea, your timing isn't that great, but Ive made bad trades too, so, you just cant give up..

Those ere some nice calculations and graphs.

You don't need graphs to make a statement like "there's no reason for it to be as high as it is".  If I as one of the biggest fans of Bitcoin recognizes that people have just lost their minds, I don't need a graph to illustrate that.

Also, how do you calculate stupidity? Like, Look there's tons of stupidity and then a little less and a little less. This equation shows that we can expect a lot more stupidity soon so it's going to blow up for sure!


*I'd say look at my other posts, I'm clearly not a fudster.

Not only do you need a graph, you need a graph with lines on it. And you need to talk about tulips too or you lose all credibility.

More seriously, you may be overestimating your own relative level of fanishness. Do you think you are the only one who has spent real-time months reading and studying and tinkering? Has nobody else bored their family and anyone else who will listen to tears? Have you taken a loan to buy more before we go to the moon?

Back up your claims if you can. Or don't. I don't mind.

Maybe true, but if I tell my wife that someone thinks I'm 'overestimating' my fanishness she's going to fall out of her chair. :) I can say that I've invested a tremendous amount of time into the cryptocurrency scene. I think the only reasonable thing to do (if you truly believe in Bitcoin) is to sell the shovels or create business around it, not try to pump the price up past where it should be hoping that it 'goes to the moon'.

There's still a fortune to be made on Bitcoin, it is going to be revolutionary but everyone needs to stop trying to get there by just buying as much as they can.

agree, bitcoin is going to nowhere but down!

Then you have folks like this. ^ Oddly enough, correct in the short term but for all the wrong reasons and clearly wrong in the long term.

Why would I stop putting my savings into the best form of store of value in the world? Convince me.

Hmm tricky, well I don't want to convince you not to. I'd hate for Bitcoin to get set back several years when it crashes back to something more reasonable before it grows into what it actually should be and people become 'gun shy' so to speak.

I'd say start dumping your money into Bitcoin when it actually starts to deliver on things not yet possible. It's difficult to come up with practical examples as many have yet not even been thought of (just as google and facebook in early internet days) but one that immediately comes to mind will be 'autonomous corporations' and services. We aren't going to win over the public with a substitute for something that already exists. Bitcoin will flourish when it starts doing things that 'person owned money' can not do.

You can imagine all sort of autonomous software that works completely independent of a person using the Bitcoin protocol. (I believe they are calling these agents). You can also imagine some sort of autonomous code that creates profit using human services like say 'Amazon Turk' and then reinvests that money back into itself. THEN we will start to see some really amazing business models that can only exist in a Bitcoin economy. At that point, sell you clothes for Bitcoin because it will be a complete game changer.

It's just like the early internet but before it became something useful, it floundered for how many decades before people realized its true potential. Bitcoin is surely like the early internet of the 70's. (unfortunately people are throwing money at it and not trying to figure out what the @## to do with it.)

You are talking 100k territory. Bitcoin as it is right now is a better payment method than plastics. This is true online and it soon will be in your local corner store when they add the option to pay with it. The tech is there, all that's needed is for businesses to catch up. Which they will, so why wait when it is almost certainly going to happen?

Then there are all the other useful scenarios. I can take all my money with me wherever I go and not risk having it stolen, even if it's million or even billions. I can bring it across borders. I can transfer it to any point in the world without paying hefty fees. For those of us who like to travel, we can already buy flights with bitcoin and as adoption grows we will no longer need to bother with exchanging currencies. And there is no risk of a Cyprus for us, unlike with fiat.

Bitcoin is presently undervalued. Lines and graphs to come at a later date.

Well I doubt we disagree about it being undervalued in the long term but in the short term, it's incredibly overvalued. There isn't enough of a market for what you speak of above to warrant mass adoption. If I tell 1000 people at agriculture conference that they can transfer money around the world more cheaply 99% of them don't care. That same 99% already take lofty vacations and take money with them without fear of it being stolen.

All in all, they are more likely terrified of the idea that their money isn't insured, isn't backed and all that separates anyone else from their money is a random string. (a random string that if they lose/forget etc.. they are out the money).

Truth be told, I work in Bioinformatics using high performance computing clusters etc..  and prior to that worked as a software developer (if you check my post history I was selling a NXT password recovery tool that I created for a bit, cracked $~50,000 account at one point)   and even I'M not comfortable storing bitcoin on my own accord. I use Coinbase. I recognize that given all the ridiculous layers of abstraction by which computers work that nothing is ever secure on a personal computer. (the point being, if I'm not comfortable how many people can be?!)

In other words, those things you mentioned are never going to bring mass adoption. They sound nice as soundbytes but they are shit to just about everyone else. The lines and graphs aren't important, conceptually it's just not there yet.  *good talk though :)

An offline electrum install is absurdly secure. Far more than coinbase or any other online service. The only real "problem" is setting a good password. I'm more comfortable keeping my money there than in the bank, and I have no formal education to speak of.

I feel like it's one hell of a jinx to say something like 'absurdly secure' when dealing with a computer protocol. :) Even the biggest advocates of Bitcoin, say: Andres Autonomous will say "look folks this is one giant beta experiment, the bitcoin protocol is like trying to fix an airplane while it is flying" That's no joke. It will be a small miracle if nobody every finds at least one exploit into the bitcoin protocol. Again though, it will be fixed and it will flourish but wow 100% success on the first attempt, that would be a miracle!  

I used to be a huge fan of NXT (And still am to some degree), one guy on the forum literally found a way to crack the entire thing when it had a 60 Million dollar marketcap! He proved it publicly and was paid a bounty and they swept the entire thing under the rug. There's no reason to think that can't happen with Bitcoin. That should terrify everyone, I had 10,000$ in NXT alone at the point. "absurdly secure is no longer in my vocabulary!"

Unless we all overthink it or just get too bored, the price has to jump significantly in the next week. The Western exchanges are being blatantly manipulated and, as a result, the Chinese exchanges are running much hotter than even BFX. Buy while you still can.

It's not the protocol that makes an offline install secure, it's the physical separation from the net. Someone would have to physically break into my home, find the machine I keep it on and walk off with it. And the password leaves me plenty of time to recover it with the seed and transfer everything to a fresh wallet. I'd still be out a laptop tho. That would be a bummer.

Also, hardware wallets will soon be here. Look at Trezor. It's secure, it's simple and most importantly it's physical so our monkey brains have an easier time accepting it as "real". Won't be long until they are cheap too.

Why does the price have to jump significantly in the next week? Looking at a daily chart, it seems to me that we are indeed at a crossroads. (The weekly chart is uglier for bulls) I don't see a trend reversal yet, though.

Earlier this week the shorts completely halved on Bitfinex... they've since regained some of their luster but are still well short of where we were when we were touching 525. During the same period of time, the longs have increased. Using this as a measure of market sentiment, people seem to be willing to pony up money towards the upside. Additionally, China has been running hot when, previously, they were the source of the dumping activity. Thirdly, the whole GABI thing is more money in the pot (and if it doesn't do something then they have nothing to show investors... thus, I believe that we have an artificially constrained market right now). Finally, the whole Ethereum dumping seems to have hit an end.

There are probably more reasons cutting in both directions, but I think we are about to get some truly unrestrained action in the next week and I think the prices now, at least in the short-term, are a steal.

Right but you understand that if someone exploits the protocol they don't need access to any kind of offline storage. It just means that someone compromises the entire system just as it happened with NXT, only thank god that guy was nice enough to just expose the whole thing and not run off with millions of dollars.

Feel free to share the details of this hack which is certainly not just a product of an overactive paranoid imagination.

An asteroid could hit earth and wipe us all out today. I'm still gonna go to work.

It's sort of heady, but consider how a computer does math. It's a series of and/or gates. That's abstracted up to machine code, that's further abstracted to assembly, that's further abstracted to low level langauges like C, that's further abstracted to higher level languages like c# that's further abstracted up to things like SQL Databases. There are just too many layes of abstraction for anyone to guarantee anything. <- big period!

With NXT it was a double spend attack, too many details to go into here but one guy was able to spend money from account he didn't own.

+1 totally agree. WE are in a long wait, we are waiting for the global demand to catch up with the bubble price. It still hasn't IMHO. Most investors will long tire of waiting and will stop paying attention or even sell and move on. It is exactly then that we will see another run.

I understand how it works. I have half a code monkeys education. Thing is, Satoshi probably has way more than that and so do the countless people around the world scrutinizing the code.

The bottom line is that a program can not do something it is not programmed to do. To exploit a protocol, it first has to be exploitable.

And it's time to go to aforementioned work. Check back later.

I guarantee if you write an SQL database in C# you will have a database with really shitty performance.

more and more people can finally see the downtrend of bitcoin, great

where are those scamming bulls?

Lol, true, probably want to go a bit lower level with that. :) It's a very astute point. (does happen though say: SharpHSQL)

Good talking with you. The issue with software is that all it takes is one unknown that you hadn't accounted for to compromise the entire thing. As a developer we come across hundreds of these with every little bit of functionality we develop. It's almost like the design space is too large to account for in a complex system. There are too many permutations to account for.

I suppose that's the reason 'hacks' exists. They are a natural bi-product of that problem. If they weren't, there wouldn't be such a thing.

Regarding the bolded part, I think you're doing it wrong. Yes, shorts are still down ~2500 from the recent peak. That means there are much less shorts to squeeze. Meanwhile, yes, longs have increased somewhat -- and if you look at the slope, it is completely diverging from price. These longs are already out of position, so they are more likely to be squeezed than if they weren't underwater. Remember, most traders lose.

China is not "running hot". They've been staying within a few dollars of Bitfinex. The last $20 rally was extremely tired -- very little momentum. Couldn't make new highs. And the spike off 3105 this afternoon clearly failed miserably. With off-exchange supply and demand so invisible, and only being able to glean what I can of that from exchange movements,  I'm not sure what to make of GABI yet. I also don't think Ethereum was a driving factor for anything in the BTC/fiat markets.

To be fair, though, I'm looking mostly for a reversal of the daily trend. If we can't break above $530s, that seems very unlikely.

This is all fair. The rally was lame and worries me. There are fewer shorts to squeeze.

However, while some of the longs may be out of position, most of them really shouldn't be. We squeezed everybody there was to squeeze going into the mid-400s and, since then, about $3 million in new longs have emerged which should be well positioned relative to the current value. That said, who knows how much the last dip cut into traders' willingness to lever up, again.

I am hoping that GABI might be a sufficient nudge to bring the panic buyers in... we'll see... in the long run I think Wall Street will screw us all, but short-term I see it as a positive. I see up as the more likely route, flat as the second most likely, and down 20+ as possible, but becoming less likely.

There will be a rally soon then, as it comes from a guy who prefers shitcoins to the real coin.

Where are you from mate?

I am very interested in your background, before I mess with cryptos I had started an online Msc (Manchester Univ.) on Bioinformatics - biotech is my biggest love!

Probably you know Personal Genome Project (http://www.personalgenomes.org/) - I am trying to find a way to do this without having the privacy issues they have and be based in some sort of cryptographic/encryption scheme.

Maybe a blockchain could help?

Apologies for the off topic..

this dead cat bounce is going to finish soon like the old ones

No dead cat bounce, live dog jump.  Sorry you loose all your money by selling at $460 falllling.  Chu Chu, no train 4 u.

You lost it all because you didn't had the balls to hold I guess. You guys seem not to learn. You should learn from Warren Buffet. When he bought the Washington Post stocks he lost a lot of money, then 10 years later the 10K invested turned into 380K, except in 10 years these 7K dolllars will be 700K

"Be greedy when others are fearful" -WB, in other words; anytime falling says anything, you should feel good about your decision to hold. Just think how many people claimed the US housing market would ruin the entire country and next the world. Now years later there's literally hundreds if not thousands of people who are literally millionaires because they knew to buy up all those "worthless" properties and hold them a few years.

WB doesn't invest in Tech anything, figured your prestigious economics major buddies would have told you that already.

No one has anticipated what happened last year. There may very well be another reason this year or next year for the price to start another run-up. But we don't know the reason yet. We simply can't see into the future. That's the way it is :)

Slow rise in crypto will be followed by parabolic...

Warren Buffet belongs to the old money crowd. Can't expect him to understand crypto currency and cryptography.

remember they're students, they ignore things like how warren buffet missed out on every tech move ever because he didn't believe in the internet when it started either. he's old school. he likes to invest in debt and real estate, as well as stock in undervalued companies.

bitcoin is going to nowhere but down, sell before it's too late

You're dumb, it's never "too late".

And where are YOU from mate? The thing above in bold is very interesting and important. Do you have any ideas on the subject?
Apologies for the off topic as well...

Greece - we need people to send the data anonymously but at the same time verifying that they are really theirs and also prevent 'double spending'.

OP might be right, there is still too much optimism for a rally. Only when most if not all of the optimists are gone will we see the true bottom. I don't think it has to take a year or more though, a lot can happen in a year.

bitcoin is going to drop lower and lower

We will have hit bottom when failllling stops posting :P

Hmmm my eye spy a run of the mill perma bull.

Chiming in to say I get your point: you don't have evidence of a particular vulnerability, but experience shows that on a project this scale, some - possibly catastrophic - vulnerabilities are very much to be expected.

Case in point: If you would have suggested two years ago that a major exploit exists that allows an attacker to potentially read out plaintext password information in a widely used - widely used in financially sensitive applications, that is - open source SSL implementation, most here would have sneered at the idea. Yet, that's exactly what happened, and we're somewhat lucky how it was discovered (and fixed), with little damage, as far as I can tell.

I agree to you. China did cause the rally and altcoins are shit. Still in long term there can be many other reasons for BTC to grow.

You LITERALLY (not figuratively) NEED a Graph and EXACT DETAILED CALCULATIONS, which make you come to that conclusion. It means NOTHING that you are a fan and claim that. That's not technical anaylsis, good job at making you look like a debil.

It has become a bottom-fishing, really! The last rally or bubble, or whatever you want to call it, has proven to have failed. So now everyone's panicking and asking themselves where we're headed. At some point we'll have final capitulation and the real bottom will become apparent. Then we can go up again.

Yeah, no way we're going up anytime soon! But we won't go down either, though! We will effectively stay at this level, that's certain!

Good for newbies who have just discovered bitcoin.  :)

Well, in some way it is. The lower we are, the more likely it is that people buying into Bitcoin just now are not facing severe losses if they really just go and hold their coins! But they, too, have to go through all those dangerous loops and price swings we've gone before and they will be shaken by the market like everyone else! But once we have reached this point, we will rise again!!! To new ATHs!

Yeah, they may be better off, but I have to disagree a tad: It's not certain at all that we will go up again at all, and on the other hand it's not certain they will experience the same swings we have experienced. It may be, but nothing's for certain. But I'm optimistic, as well :)

A huge Bitcoin Rally is forming (slowly) and it will happen "soon" enough.  :)

How soon?

Quoting you :D But yeah, you may want to provide some more information and reasons why you believe this to be the case :D But wait, that's not how things are done around here at the moment it seems, you're right! :P

he is telling you that GABI fund will start buying lots of bitcoins at 9 am 01/09

Wouldn't it be awesome if they did? I don't believe it either, but just for the fun of it, what would you be willing to bet if they indeed did buy huge amounts of BTC then? This could be a fun bet :)

Well if they do start on 9/1 they're probably going to buy otc, so you will prob not see anything on the exchanges

Probably we will reach $450 and then rebound to $500 before rising again.

Won't they need to get loads of money first, before they start buying bitcoins?

That's what they have been doing for this past month.

Most likely this.  The fund opened a month ago, but doesn't start trading until Tuesday afaik.

How much money have they got to buy bitcoins with?

No one knows.  They cited high demand, and an estimation of 200MM within the next year.