Bitcoin Forum

disclaimer: this thread focuses only on non-directional observations.

http://s9.postimage.org/5x8ltndcv/chart.png

two sets of observations can be made from the preceding:

on the one hand, we have seen incredibly low price movement/volatility in the past month:

-- ADX is around a 3-month low

-- Bollinger Width at a 3-month low

and on the other, we have what could be interpreted as the early signs of a 'reversal' in this trend of decreasing volatility:

-- Chaikin Volatility about to cross zero-line after making a 2.5-month low

-- Mass Index dropping off from a 2.5-month high

taken together, this predicts a large price movement in the next weeks/month. hold on to your positions -- and let's hope your bets are on the right side :P

I would suppress too.

i'm not sure what you're getting at, but i can edit out the last line if you think i'm attempting some kind of shameless manipulation. i would urge individuals who don't already hold a position to get into one, as well, which is not 'suppression'. since i clearly do not espouse a direction, regardless of whether or not the last line is a 'trading suggestion' i don't even think i'm breaking the new draconian forum rules.

so bugger off, i'll stop posting analysis altogether if i keep getting such negative feedback, and then everybody loses :P

I'm not sure it was negative feedback. Also, look at bitcoinbitcoin113s profile pic, you clearly shouldn't take anything he says too seriously.

Thanks for your analysis and also thanks for making very clear it doesn't favor any direction ;)

Sorry about the misunderstanding. The blame lies completely with me for being cryptic. I am pretty much agreeing with you. I meant there has been low volatility because rallies are being suppressed by "manipulators". It is actually a pretty dumb post.

The suppressing of market price from going over $5 USD may be to protect someones position in Bitcoinica. However that will be short lived. Just as last year this time other factors played in keeping the "Mania" at bay. And yes it still failed.

Positions change regularly.

All things are cyclical even the Bitcoin "Economy". Therefore speculators are getting ready to predict the pendulum swing "bull" or "bear".

Following careful consultation of gentleman Johnnie Walker I agree  ;D

We're going to move somewhere. Atm though it's looking slightly down judging by the current volume  >:(

I think the huge volume down on Feb 13-16 (300k BTC alone on one day) was the seller climax. Mr M bought most of those coins.

Sellers have been waiting to buy below $3.8 (and growing increasingly impatient), but I doubt that Mr M will be selling coins for cheaper than he paid (he is much more patient). Those who sold at the low end up buying higher - not the reverse.

+1 I'd really like to see that come into play. But we need a fairly serious volume build up for btc to kick into fullblown rally mode.

Right. So the question is whether there's already enough 'dry powder' to kick the volume up, or if there will be a sell-off first.

How come those analyzing charts never analyse the volume?

There's an order for 16,000 BTC @ 4.96 on Bitcoinica. 

https://bitcoinica.com/pages/order_book

Looks more than that.. :O

why are you even looking at the bitcoinica orderbook, everyone knows it's fake

i, too, apologise. seems i have been accused of trying to manipulate sentiment one too many times.


many indicators work volume into account. further, when i post here my analyses are intentionally incomplete, mostly for brevity. my actual analyses consist of far more indicators as well as real-world events. i usually only post when i notice a clear, communicable prediction demonstrated by a number of related indicators (see my last thread regarding oscillators).

I'd go as far as to tentatively say up atm  ;D

Looking at all data on a log scale, today is very similar to one year ago today. There was a very sudden spike (up to $1 vs up to $32), then a slow, decline but not all the way to prespike levels. Then a second slower resurgence that kind of peetered out. Then a relatively flat stretch until a big surge which brings us back to the first spike.

Hi Dan; I haven't seen your name around here in a while, but then I've been on a break from this board myself.

Can you provide a chart or otherwise pretty graphic of the comparison you described above?  Maybe put some arrows on it and stuff.  I don't have anything to donate so if you don't want to or don't have time, I understand.  I kind of just want it more for the newbs than anything.

The FED's way of saying "welcome to the threat-to-the-US-dollar currency club!" ? :D

Eat these crypto-bullets, you vampires!

Well I would say history is about to repeat itself and that Bitcoin's about to go to $100 :D (at the arbitrary value of 1BTC = 100 million Satoshis -- how did the developers know where to put the decimal point?)...
but I still can't order pizza online for Bitcoin, so the rally is cancelled. >:(

You cannot also order pizza for gold, which does not prevent the gold from keeping good value.

The decimal point was arbitrary and fairly irrelevant to the functioning of the system.  If 1 Satoshi becomes too valuable, we can upgrade to x > 8 significant digits after the decimal.

I can order a pizza online for Bitcoin, and I have:
http://coincard.ndrix.com/

No kidding! I humbly stand corrected! Damn. Based on this new-found revelation, I'll have to re-evaluate my sophisticated astrological forecasts. The Moon, and planets and stuff say: Rally! :D

http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/4182/nstink.jpg


If nstink says it, you girls better start doin' it!  ;D

The lies in this thread  >:(

zzzzzzz....

Looks like the price is breaking down.  Brace for impact...

That's a lot of buying volume for a break down...

zzzzzzZZZZzzzzz..

All hands on deck!

so is this the day when you guys finally start listening to arepo when he makes predictions about the market?

if there are any bears left, i strongly advise you to abandon ship before the waves go HIGHER

No... anyone who was blindsided by that needs to learn to trade.

Hold on to your shorts!

http://cl.jroo.me/z3/V/F/3/a/a.aaa.jpg

lol

I love it when it takes just a little taunting to get them to take the bait  ;D

Now we return you to the yammering cheerleading already in progress.

G'night folks.  See you back under $5 when I wake up.  Ammiright?

+1

What kind of Voodoo is this? :o

I know.  It's staying above $5 for longer than it usually does.  Although it *is* doing a sort of "double-top".  I don't know if double-top is an accepted charting term, but imagine the opposite of when everyone says double-bottom.

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5442/6944682324_05a6bce6f6_b.jpg

http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/course/triangles-charting.html (http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/course/triangles-charting.html)

Care to explain to non-trianglelingulars? Or a hint maybe? Much appreciated.

in my mediocre interpretation, this is a bull triangle forming, once it plays out, it should go up..

Thank you man!

No promises! :D

That's important because there have been quite a few of these mystical "bull" triangles in the past months.

Still above $5.  Above 5.1 even.   :P

I'm surprised, I'll give you that.  I still don't think there's enough interested and serious money to push through the 2012 high.

That may be the case. But, damn there is a lot of money in bids (http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html) right now. More so than I've seen in a while.

I don't think even twice that amount would be enough to push through (I mean realistically, not in a single unlikely buy).

Well I was totally wrong about my "double-top".  I still think we will return below $5 like we keep doing over and over.  Good thing I hedge now, my Bitcoinica short is starting to look nasty  :o

Ouch!

We just might see $6 before we're done with this rise. G/L

your arrogance is unbecoming of a trader.

Ok... if you missed it you need to zoom out and quit looking at only the 5 day chart.  Is that better?

its looking rather bearish right now  :-\

Haha, I'm still waiting for my "bermuda" triangle.

http://i43.tinypic.com/14kl2k0.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/33/Bermuda_Triangle.png

I'm more comfortable with a relatively slow and steady rise. Maybe the market has learned not to like strong breakouts since they tend to be followed by sharp corrections. For the time being, anyway...

I agree.  I think we're going to break back into the $4s in the next week or so and stay there for a while again.

No back breaking allowed!!  You big bully!

Just another triangle ahead ) Total geometry lessons...

My dad has a bigger triangle then your dad  ;D

Fortify!!!!

And back down we go... ::)

You guys are funny...

Some people must have no lives other than watching threads and price movements.

Now to something completely different:

Will the 5.10 wall hold????

Probably not.  Even if the price is going to go up in the next weeks, it's probably going to go down first.  Protip:  The price probably isn't going to go up in the next weeks.  From what I can gather most of the analysts are on the bullish side of things right now which has pretty consistently meant that a sell-off is on its way.

Full disclosure:  I couldn't help myself and despite sincerely wanting to take a break from trading, I went ahead and took advantage of liquidity above $5 and sold.

its holding!


http://fit2belive.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/it-is-time.png?w=600
http://www.lionking.org/imgarchive/Act_2/ItIsTime.jpg

Ehhhhhh...  Risky move brother..

I agree its going down short term, but only down a smidge..  

I think you'll break even after paying trading fees on any gains buying lower..

I bet the market goes ********* for a quick ********* then a massive ********* which will force ********* to ********* and cause a major *********.

Anyone wanna bet?

I will bet, but only if I know what the * means..

If there ever was a time to be greedy.

Tonight would be it.

After all, it's Thursday!

I dont have time to post a chart but...

Im expecting at least 40,000 Bitcoins bought in the next few hours.  Ill be buying some of them myself when we push against the $5.20 wall again.

Rally Time  8)

Edit: How many rally threads can we fit on the front page?

I've just sold a few BTC on Bitcoinica so I will have some USD there. I don't really understand much about trading, so I won't touch the short options or any of that Casino stuff, but I'm thinking I might get some more interest on my USD than I do for BTC there. Plus, there is this cool new way of transferring money for like 9$ to your credit card. Anyway, if it's an obvious time to go short because of obvious movements, it'd be nice if you could tell what buttons to press. Oh, I just said I should better not touch Bitcoinica for anything else but interest and (less than ideal) exchange options. Cheers!

I don't think it will go further up this week. But we will see...

Press the "SELL" button... repeatedly!   ;D

Done! We should be down to 5.0 in no time!  :P

Anyone remember what happened to the massive $5 wall?

It slowly got eaten and eventually went down :)

I bet the market goes *Down* for a quick *Drop* then a massive *Buy* which will force *Shorts* to *Liquidate* and cause a major *Orgy*.

 :D

Here comes the boom! $5.17 now

i didn't miss anything. i'm the OP. the charts i posted are 3-month scale. anything else? just because you didn't miss it doesn't make you better than anyone else, it just makes you more money. all i meant is that your comment made you out as a prick.

Well, it was in response to this post of yours where you brag about your "predictions":
so I guess neither of us are saints.

i didn't insult others' intelligences. i teased about how in the past people have mocked my own for the predictions i've made. don't put me in the same boat.

I didn't put you in the same boat, just pointed out that neither of us walk on water... but meh, I'll just tell you what you want to hear so you'll shut up and the thread can move on.

You're better than me.

this isn't about who's better at all :-\

but i agree the thread ought to move on.

back on track with a reference to the OP:


and some charts:

http://s18.postimage.org/oawpuz7h5/chart.png

as is apparent and was predicted by the OP, we now see inflections in both of the aforementioned indicators. due to the insanely stable price these past few months, we should expect, statistically, large price movement hereafter, and the recent bullish movement suggests that the previously trendless market has chosen a direction.

new prediction: resistance at $5.20 will be broken within a week (7 days from today). i provided targets in the "Rally!!!!" thread.

again, for anyone interested in a subscription-type service, i'd be happy to provide if there is interest and am willing to beat the prices of the three that are already running.

Looks like somebody is going short on bitcoinica right now.

really? id say this is a very bad moment to go short. the 22k coins from 5.2 are gone now. i expect a short squeeze/rally

Sorry I was a day late guys.  My bad

 8)

I'm counting roughly 30k. Suspiciously good call. (/adds SkRRJyTC to suspect list)

wtfwtfwtf I go to a party and when I come back the price 5.30 with a high 4.45 or so? WTF!!!

dont worry sell more coins its going right back down

Ha, this time I'm a bit more careful. Not like that guy who sold out all his coins at $5.11. It's only for you guys to pick up... What am I gonna sell when it's up to $32???! Hmmm. Open bitcoinica....look at balance....contemplate and open another beer.

ya, we are over due for a drop... better go 10 to 1 I'm pretty sure this is as high is its going to get

Shorting is risky, even now. I thought it would go down again at 5.15. So you think this rally is only because of the 20th of April effect? How could people know it would go up further after it looked like <5.10 again last night? They couldn't. They would have sold already. Also, the weekend effect didn't seem to stop the demand this time. So...we will see. I'm holding.

$5.2 was broken quicker than expected. And judging from the relatively few asks at $5.5 (~8k BTC at time of this posting), it may not be long before Mr. M pushes it over $5.5 too.

a breakout was the most likely outcome from a technical analyst's point of view, so you really can't say that people did not expect it to go up. The April 20 effect had nothing to do with today's action; it was all in the charts if you know how to read them  ;)

BitcoinBull,
it was very expected that prices break 5.2 $ fast, which is what we shared in our newsletter Thursday night to subscribers.

I guess the break out through $5.20 up was due to the first leaked news about Bitcoinica becoming registered finance service.

I suppose you were right. A quick break of $5.2 was to be expected after breaking $5.1. Now I'm wondering, how long can it be expected to hang below $5.5 before either making the big upward break or reverting to the more comfortable channel ($4.5-$5)?

Since we're tooting our horns, on April 11 I highlighted the upward trend starting at $4.3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=76338.0). Based on that trend, I'm guessing price will rest comfortably above $5, and form an ascending triangle toward $5.5 over the next 7-10 days before breaking out.

Link?

Edit:  Nevermind.