major breakout imminent!

[arepo]

disclaimer: this thread focuses only on non-directional observations.



two sets of observations can be made from the preceding:

on the one hand, we have seen incredibly low price movement/volatility in the past month:

-- ADX is around a 3-month low

-- Bollinger Width at a 3-month low

and on the other, we have what could be interpreted as the early signs of a 'reversal' in this trend of decreasing volatility:

-- Chaikin Volatility about to cross zero-line after making a 2.5-month low

-- Mass Index dropping off from a 2.5-month high

taken together, this predicts a large price movement in the next weeks/month. hold on to your positions -- and let's hope your bets are on the right side

[bb113]

I would suppress too.

[arepo]

I would suppress too.

i'm not sure what you're getting at, but i can edit out the last line if you think i'm attempting some kind of shameless manipulation. i would urge individuals who don't already hold a position to get into one, as well, which is not 'suppression'. since i clearly do not espouse a direction, regardless of whether or not the last line is a 'trading suggestion' i don't even think i'm breaking the new draconian forum rules.

so bugger off, i'll stop posting analysis altogether if i keep getting such negative feedback, and then everybody loses

[molecular]

I would suppress too.

i'm not sure what you're getting at, but i can edit out the last line if you think i'm attempting some kind of shameless manipulation. i would urge individuals who don't already hold a position to get into one, as well, which is not 'suppression'. since i clearly do not espouse a direction, regardless of whether or not the last line is a 'trading suggestion' i don't even think i'm breaking the new draconian forum rules.

so bugger off, i'll stop posting analysis altogether if i keep getting such negative feedback, and then everybody loses

I'm not sure it was negative feedback. Also, look at bitcoinbitcoin113s profile pic, you clearly shouldn't take anything he says too seriously.

Thanks for your analysis and also thanks for making very clear it doesn't favor any direction

[bb113]

I would suppress too.

i'm not sure what you're getting at, but i can edit out the last line if you think i'm attempting some kind of shameless manipulation. i would urge individuals who don't already hold a position to get into one, as well, which is not 'suppression'. since i clearly do not espouse a direction, regardless of whether or not the last line is a 'trading suggestion' i don't even think i'm breaking the new draconian forum rules.

so bugger off, i'll stop posting analysis altogether if i keep getting such negative feedback, and then everybody loses

Sorry about the misunderstanding. The blame lies completely with me for being cryptic. I am pretty much agreeing with you. I meant there has been low volatility because rallies are being suppressed by "manipulators". It is actually a pretty dumb post.

[Sitarow]

I would suppress too.

i'm not sure what you're getting at, but i can edit out the last line if you think i'm attempting some kind of shameless manipulation. i would urge individuals who don't already hold a position to get into one, as well, which is not 'suppression'. since i clearly do not espouse a direction, regardless of whether or not the last line is a 'trading suggestion' i don't even think i'm breaking the new draconian forum rules.

so bugger off, i'll stop posting analysis altogether if i keep getting such negative feedback, and then everybody loses

Sorry about the misunderstanding. The blame lies completely with me for being cryptic. I am pretty much agreeing with you. I meant there has been low volatility because rallies are being suppressed by "manipulators". It is actually a pretty dumb post.

The suppressing of market price from going over $5 USD may be to protect someones position in Bitcoinica. However that will be short lived. Just as last year this time other factors played in keeping the "Mania" at bay. And yes it still failed.

Positions change regularly.

All things are cyclical even the Bitcoin "Economy". Therefore speculators are getting ready to predict the pendulum swing "bull" or "bear".

[Bigpiggy01]

Following careful consultation of gentleman Johnnie Walker I agree 

We're going to move somewhere. Atm though it's looking slightly down judging by the current volume 

[bitcoinBull]

I think the huge volume down on Feb 13-16 (300k BTC alone on one day) was the seller climax. Mr M bought most of those coins.

Sellers have been waiting to buy below $3.8 (and growing increasingly impatient), but I doubt that Mr M will be selling coins for cheaper than he paid (he is much more patient). Those who sold at the low end up buying higher - not the reverse.

[Bigpiggy01]

Sellers have been waiting to buy below $3.8 (and growing increasingly impatient), but I doubt that Mr M will be selling coins for cheaper than he paid (he is much more patient). Those who sold at the low end up buying higher - not the reverse.

+1 I'd really like to see that come into play. But we need a fairly serious volume build up for btc to kick into fullblown rally mode.

[bitcoinBull]

Sellers have been waiting to buy below $3.8 (and growing increasingly impatient), but I doubt that Mr M will be selling coins for cheaper than he paid (he is much more patient). Those who sold at the low end up buying higher - not the reverse.

+1 I'd really like to see that come into play. But we need a fairly serious volume build up for btc to kick into fullblown rally mode.

Right. So the question is whether there's already enough 'dry powder' to kick the volume up, or if there will be a sell-off first.

[hazek]

How come those analyzing charts never analyse the volume?

[GoWest]

There's an order for 16,000 BTC @ 4.96 on Bitcoinica. 

https://bitcoinica.com/pages/order_book

[teflone]

Looks more than that.. :O

[ineededausername]

why are you even looking at the bitcoinica orderbook, everyone knows it's fake

[arepo]

Sorry about the misunderstanding. The blame lies completely with me for being cryptic. I am pretty much agreeing with you. I meant there has been low volatility because rallies are being suppressed by "manipulators". It is actually a pretty dumb post.

i, too, apologise. seems i have been accused of trying to manipulate sentiment one too many times.

How come those analyzing charts never analyse the volume?

many indicators work volume into account. further, when i post here my analyses are intentionally incomplete, mostly for brevity. my actual analyses consist of far more indicators as well as real-world events. i usually only post when i notice a clear, communicable prediction demonstrated by a number of related indicators (see my last thread regarding oscillators).

[Bigpiggy01]

I'd go as far as to tentatively say up atm 

[Dan The Man]

Looking at all data on a log scale, today is very similar to one year ago today. There was a very sudden spike (up to $1 vs up to $32), then a slow, decline but not all the way to prespike levels. Then a second slower resurgence that kind of peetered out. Then a relatively flat stretch until a big surge which brings us back to the first spike.

[Crypt_Current]

Looking at all data on a log scale, today is very similar to one year ago today. There was a very sudden spike (up to $1 vs up to $32), then a slow, decline but not all the way to prespike levels. Then a second slower resurgence that kind of peetered out. Then a relatively flat stretch until a big surge which brings us back to the first spike.

Hi Dan; I haven't seen your name around here in a while, but then I've been on a break from this board myself.

Can you provide a chart or otherwise pretty graphic of the comparison you described above?  Maybe put some arrows on it and stuff.  I don't have anything to donate so if you don't want to or don't have time, I understand.  I kind of just want it more for the newbs than anything.

[blablahblah]

rallies are being suppressed by "manipulators".

The FED's way of saying "welcome to the threat-to-the-US-dollar currency club!" ?

[molecular]

rallies are being suppressed by "manipulators".

The FED's way of saying "welcome to the threat-to-the-US-dollar currency club!" ?

Eat these crypto-bullets, you vampires!