Title: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on April 28, 2012, 11:48:16 PM As you are hopefully aware, the bitcoin price will likely not be repeating the same bubble pattern as last year. The question is, when will the prices intersect? We are currently 3x the 2011 bubble price, but have fallen below that mark before. Note that because of the leap year, 365 days ago is not equivalent to a year ago.
To make it easier to pinpoint the date (because trades are not continuous), the open price is the only price that will be compared. June 20-26, 2011 did not have opens on Mt. Gox USD, so the opens will be considered $16.89 (not that it will likely matter considering our current situation). Edit: Two days after I made the chart, massive gains last year and decreases now are rapidly shrinking the boundary. Only 73% (no longer 200%) remains between this year and last year! Here's a new chart: https://i.imgur.com/q5rLu.png Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? Post by: adamstgBit on April 29, 2012, 12:29:33 AM funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice
what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important? Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? Post by: dree12 on April 29, 2012, 02:49:23 AM funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important? 2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life. (It's right now 2012-04-29 UTC. The open was $4.9794, compared to the open of $2.88 last year). By the way, to clarify, the period of no trade on Mt. Gox should be bridged with the 16.89 open (tradehill price was too volitile). (2011-06-20 to 2011-06-26) Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? Post by: FreeMoney on April 29, 2012, 02:58:41 AM funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important? 2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life. That's the day the price spiked up over the current price. So assuming steady price till then, that will be the day. Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? Post by: dree12 on April 29, 2012, 03:10:08 AM To whoever voted April 29, that's no longer possible. There was a big dip, but not enough to wipe out the lead we still have. Tommorow, we have another chance of reaching the parity, but if we don't, there will be a lull period until we get another chance.
funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important? 2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life. That's the day the price spiked up over the current price. So assuming steady price till then, that will be the day. Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? Post by: FreeMoney on April 29, 2012, 03:21:18 AM To whoever voted April 29, that's no longer possible. There was a big dip, but not enough to wipe out the lead we still have. Tommorow, we have another chance of reaching the parity, but if we don't, there will be a lull period until we get another chance. funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important? 2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life. That's the day the price spiked up over the current price. So assuming steady price till then, that will be the day. The spike happened on the 10th.... so people ought be picking the 9th? Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? Post by: dree12 on April 29, 2012, 03:45:58 AM To whoever voted April 29, that's no longer possible. There was a big dip, but not enough to wipe out the lead we still have. Tommorow, we have another chance of reaching the parity, but if we don't, there will be a lull period until we get another chance. funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important? 2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life. That's the day the price spiked up over the current price. So assuming steady price till then, that will be the day. The spike happened on the 10th.... so people ought be picking the 9th? As an aside, I made a chart demonstrating how close we're getting now: https://i.imgur.com/kbE2R.png Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: Grinder on April 29, 2012, 01:28:31 PM According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated.
Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on April 29, 2012, 04:04:48 PM According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated. Wouldn't 2011-05-10 be the logical choice then, because of the leap day?Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: Grinder on April 29, 2012, 09:42:26 PM According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated. Wouldn't 2011-05-10 be the logical choice then, because of the leap day?Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on April 29, 2012, 11:38:22 PM According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated. Wouldn't 2011-05-10 be the logical choice then, because of the leap day?Here are some charts: https://i.imgur.com/xEmJ3.png https://i.imgur.com/F7BlU.png We missed the chance to reach parity 2012-04-30, and it's going to be hard to reach parity until at least 2012-05-03. We won't have a real chance (I would say >5%) until 2012-05-07, three days before the infamous 2012-05-10. Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: adamstgBit on April 30, 2012, 02:41:37 AM According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated. Wouldn't 2011-05-10 be the logical choice then, because of the leap day?Here are some charts: https://i.imgur.com/xEmJ3.png https://i.imgur.com/F7BlU.png We missed the chance to reach parity 2012-04-30, and it's going to be hard to reach parity until at least 2012-05-03. We won't have a real chance (I would say >5%) until 2012-05-07, three days before the infamous 2012-05-10. what is it your trying to sell us? the infamous 2012-05-10 ??? Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: proudhon on April 30, 2012, 12:57:52 PM This chart is going to be fun to watch for during May and June. Please keep it updated.
Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: giszmo on April 30, 2012, 06:20:25 PM love this topic :) subscribing.
I only doubt opening price is meaningful. Would have picked weighted average or so instead. Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on April 30, 2012, 08:28:27 PM love this topic :) subscribing. Weighted average is an excellent statistic too, which I happen to have in my spreadsheet. Only issue is that it's one day behind (the open is almost immediately available). Here's a chart (made now, but information up until yesterday):I only doubt opening price is meaningful. Would have picked weighted average or so instead. https://i.imgur.com/pEKdw.png Edit: Almost forgot, here's an interday: http://imgur.com/xaKyb.png As predicted, there was a recovery for May 1. Here's the new chart: https://i.imgur.com/TocH9.png We won't have another chance till the 7th, I believe. Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on May 02, 2012, 12:44:21 AM For the forseeable future, I'll try to keep the chart updated (in this thread until it finishes, I guess). Before the chart though, some numbers:
Today's open was USD 5.0, slightly (+1.0%) up from yesterday. This relative stability is expected as long as the calm period beginning late February lasts. 365 days ago, on 2011-05-03, the open was USD 3.2, significantly (+5.5%) up from 2011-05-02. This massive gain was not unprecedented; in fact, on 2011-05-01 the open was USD 3.5. Significant increases continued for the next day of May, +6.6% on the fourth. On the fifth, a slight decrease occurred, -0.1%. The sixth brought a moderate decrease, -2.1%, before another significant increase occurred on the seventh (3.5%). In total, the increase for the first part of May is not substantial enough to permit a likely passage through parity. If our stability continues, it will take until 2012-05-10 to finally hit parity (and, because of the inflated open on that day, surpass it by far). Past that point, we will likely not return to a positive 365-day change until after the June 2011 bubble pops; even then, it will take a very long time. A resurfacing is possible in August, likely in September, and barring a cataclysmic event for Bitcoin nearly certain by November. Without further ado, here's the chart reporting about today's slight slide (but still a good 50% buffer). It won't go much lower until the 10th. https://i.imgur.com/cgQUY.png Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: naima53 on May 02, 2012, 06:19:12 AM Cool! A good diagram .. Can subscribe to this diagram?
Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on May 03, 2012, 01:18:56 AM Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on May 04, 2012, 01:21:13 AM Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on May 06, 2012, 12:33:40 AM Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on May 07, 2012, 01:56:07 AM Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on May 09, 2012, 01:44:21 AM Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: dree12 on May 10, 2012, 12:39:40 AM Congrats to the three people who voted today. As there's little more to discuss about this topic, I will be opening a new thread to put any future revisions of this chart in. Final chart:
https://i.imgur.com/v8FHZ.png Title: Re: When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD) Post by: proudhon on May 10, 2012, 01:29:57 AM Can't wait to see what this chart looks like a month from now.
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