When will Mt. Gox price fall below Mt. Gox price 365 days ago? (USD)

[dree12]

As you are hopefully aware, the bitcoin price will likely not be repeating the same bubble pattern as last year. The question is, when will the prices intersect? We are currently 3x the 2011 bubble price, but have fallen below that mark before. Note that because of the leap year, 365 days ago is not equivalent to a year ago.

To make it easier to pinpoint the date (because trades are not continuous), the open price is the only price that will be compared.

June 20-26, 2011 did not have opens on Mt. Gox USD, so the opens will be considered $16.89 (not that it will likely matter considering our current situation).

Edit: Two days after I made the chart, massive gains last year and decreases now are rapidly shrinking the boundary. Only 73% (no longer 200%) remains between this year and last year!

Here's a new chart:

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[adamstgBit]

funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice

what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important?  

[dree12]

funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice

what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important?  

It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.

2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life.

(It's right now 2012-04-29 UTC. The open was $4.9794, compared to the open of $2.88 last year).

By the way, to clarify, the period of no trade on Mt. Gox should be bridged with the 16.89 open (tradehill price was too volitile). (2011-06-20 to 2011-06-26)

[FreeMoney]

funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice

what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important?  

It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.

2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life.

That's the day the price spiked up over the current price. So assuming steady price till then, that will be the day.

[dree12]

To whoever voted April 29, that's no longer possible. There was a big dip, but not enough to wipe out the lead we still have. Tommorow, we have another chance of reaching the parity, but if we don't, there will be a lull period until we get another chance.

funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice

what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important?  

It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.

2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life.

That's the day the price spiked up over the current price. So assuming steady price till then, that will be the day.

Oh, right. That makes sense, but it's still unusual in that none of the dates around it were picked. The issue is, the thread did say 365 days ago and not a year ago. February 29 sort of messes that reasoning up.

[FreeMoney]

To whoever voted April 29, that's no longer possible. There was a big dip, but not enough to wipe out the lead we still have. Tommorow, we have another chance of reaching the parity, but if we don't, there will be a lull period until we get another chance.

funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice

what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important?  

It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.

2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life.

That's the day the price spiked up over the current price. So assuming steady price till then, that will be the day.

Oh, right. That makes sense, but it's still unusual in that none of the dates around it were picked. The issue is, the thread did say 365 days ago and not a year ago. February 29 sort of messes that reasoning up.

The spike happened on the 10th.... so people ought be picking the 9th?

[dree12]

To whoever voted April 29, that's no longer possible. There was a big dip, but not enough to wipe out the lead we still have. Tommorow, we have another chance of reaching the parity, but if we don't, there will be a lull period until we get another chance.

funny how 2012-05-11 is picked twice

what was the price 365 days ago, and why is it important?  

It isn't so much important as it is a random statistic. Since July 2011, Bitcoin has posted huge gains from the time 12 months ago. While nobody would claim that Bitcoin's price has gone up recently, it still has held above its price 365 days before (a "yearly" gain). The bubble will likely change that.

2012-05-11 is probably picked more often because it was the first choice, and people bandwagoned. Such is life.

That's the day the price spiked up over the current price. So assuming steady price till then, that will be the day.

Oh, right. That makes sense, but it's still unusual in that none of the dates around it were picked. The issue is, the thread did say 365 days ago and not a year ago. February 29 sort of messes that reasoning up.

The spike happened on the 10th.... so people ought be picking the 9th?

Yeah, but only the open price matters. I guess I'll emphasize that in the OP (it's in the poll question, but nobody reads that).

As an aside, I made a chart demonstrating how close we're getting now:

[Grinder]

According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated.

[dree12]

According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated.

Wouldn't 2011-05-10 be the logical choice then, because of the leap day?

[Grinder]

According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated.

Wouldn't 2011-05-10 be the logical choice then, because of the leap day?

No, it would have to be 2012-05-10. Gee, aren't we clever today

[dree12]

According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated.

Wouldn't 2011-05-10 be the logical choice then, because of the leap day?

No, it would have to be 2012-05-10. Gee, aren't we clever today

I must be getting old if I'm dating things a year in the past .

Here are some charts:



We missed the chance to reach parity 2012-04-30, and it's going to be hard to reach parity until at least 2012-05-03. We won't have a real chance (I would say >5%) until 2012-05-07, three days before the infamous 2012-05-10.

[adamstgBit]

According to Bitcoin charts it opened at 3.8 at 2011-05-10, and at 5.81 at 2011-05-11, so 2011-05-11 is the logical choice given how the survey is formulated.

Wouldn't 2011-05-10 be the logical choice then, because of the leap day?

No, it would have to be 2012-05-10. Gee, aren't we clever today

I must be getting old if I'm dating things a year in the past .

Here are some charts:



We missed the chance to reach parity 2012-04-30, and it's going to be hard to reach parity until at least 2012-05-03. We won't have a real chance (I would say >5%) until 2012-05-07, three days before the infamous 2012-05-10.

what is it your trying to sell us?
the infamous 2012-05-10 

[proudhon]

This chart is going to be fun to watch for during May and June.  Please keep it updated.

[giszmo]

love this topic subscribing.

I only doubt opening price is meaningful. Would have picked weighted average or so instead.

[dree12]

love this topic subscribing.

I only doubt opening price is meaningful. Would have picked weighted average or so instead.

Weighted average is an excellent statistic too, which I happen to have in my spreadsheet. Only issue is that it's one day behind (the open is almost immediately available). Here's a chart (made now, but information up until yesterday):



Edit: Almost forgot, here's an interday:


As predicted, there was a recovery for May 1. Here's the new chart:


We won't have another chance till the 7^th, I believe.

[dree12]

For the forseeable future, I'll try to keep the chart updated (in this thread until it finishes, I guess). Before the chart though, some numbers:

Today's open was USD 5.0, slightly (+1.0%) up from yesterday. This relative stability is expected as long as the calm period beginning late February lasts. 365 days ago, on 2011-05-03, the open was USD 3.2, significantly (+5.5%) up from 2011-05-02. This massive gain was not unprecedented; in fact, on 2011-05-01 the open was USD 3.5. Significant increases continued for the next day of May, +6.6% on the fourth. On the fifth, a slight decrease occurred, -0.1%. The sixth brought a moderate decrease, -2.1%, before another significant increase occurred on the seventh (3.5%). In total, the increase for the first part of May is not substantial enough to permit a likely passage through parity.

If our stability continues, it will take until 2012-05-10 to finally hit parity (and, because of the inflated open on that day, surpass it by far). Past that point, we will likely not return to a positive 365-day change until after the June 2011 bubble pops; even then, it will take a very long time. A resurfacing is possible in August, likely in September, and barring a cataclysmic event for Bitcoin nearly certain by November.

Without further ado, here's the chart reporting about today's slight slide (but still a good 50% buffer). It won't go much lower until the 10^th.

[naima53]

Cool! A good diagram .. Can subscribe to this diagram?

[dree12]

Today's (no time to post analysis, sorry):

[dree12]

(I know the date is wrong; too lazy to fix it right now).

[dree12]