Bitcoin Forum

Stop going all in on bitcoins, and start holding on to something that is more reliable, like fiat.  This was my post when bitcoin went OVER 1k.  A lot of you guys were at a type of high unrivaled by anyone, not even a crack head.

This was my post:



Because I knew this thing was going to crash and stablize at no more than $100, for a very very long time.  I was here in 2011, and I knew bitcoin's potential was that it had potential.  That was about it.  Now that it has reached its potential, which is that it might have more potential, it is nothing more than just a dot com bubble and might be useful, the protocol, few hundred years down the line.  And that is in very rare and extreme cases.

At any rate, this is my final warning.  I will sit back and just watch the show with popcorn in hand.  Good night folks.

Please let it be the last.

you stubborn troll, i'm doing you a service, and you're mocking me.  okay then. 

Good bye Xiaoxiao, i really hope this is your last warning.

+1 Finally!  :-*

One more to go down the ignore list.

I am interested to know at what point you consider the internet to have reached its potential?

Bitcoin is no different...

No. You are claiming you KNOW something that cannot be possibly be known. If you don't even understand this most simple of concepts then how can you possibly be qualified to comment on something as complex as a potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money.

Try again.

OP why are you not all in on shorts?

great! ;D , hope i don't get to read more of your baseless propaganda

He seems to be a bankier :-) as he love fiat more than B.

What a shame. ..

I tend to buy whenever he posts. Some sort of reverse psychology process I suspect.

What are we talking about ???

You have posted enough warnings, we are aware of them and are tired of them. Happy to see this is the *final* one.

good strategy.  you must be totally bankrupt by now.

good luck with the monopoly money, ill sell you some bitcoin when your fiat becomes worthless

Sorry to disappoint you old chap. In fact other than my tesco share holding which has taken a drubbing I am doing rather well this year. This bear market has allowed me to triple my btc holdings and remain firmly in the green even now. Definitely the most exciting part of my portfolio. I cannot wait for an etf to hold btc in a tax free wrapper.

I respect the opinions of the older posters who have been through more than the 2 bubbles I have. You seem to have been around since 2011 so you are a straight up bitcoin millionaire right? If you aren't (a signed btc transaction will do) perhaps you could explain why anyone should listen to your noisy warnings?

Bu... bu .... but you are still begging for bitcoins in your signature...  :-[ :-[ :-[

No, I am actually providing a valuable service to traders, and the small commission i earn from providing that service, i convert to usd asap.

Please don't warn us one last time!!! Your insightful contributions are just so valuable!!!  Please warn us at least 2345345534545 more times!!!

Be careful (the same goes for XiaoXiao): Bitcoin and BTC price are two different things.

Regarless on how bitcoin might be a "potential paradigm shift in how the world uses money", its price can still go to shit for the following months (and yes, maybe even to $200 or less, even if I have doubts on that happening myself). The two don't necessarily contradict each other.

Please don't make the mistake of thinking that they have to go hand in hand.

BTC is being VERY bearish lately, everything would point to another "price reset".
The recent low ($378 at Stamp and 381 at Bitfinex) is a crucial long term support point. We didn't particularly bounce much from it (not even with the PayPal news) and it is NOT very well defended support wise.

IF that support is breached, $200 or less might become a reality.

how is fiat more reliable than bitcoin? fiat is a giant scam that's it, nothing good come from it

Bitcoin was well BELOW 1k on December 22 2013. Your trolling would be more effective if you could get your facts correct.

Your lack of reply isn't surprising. If you failed to enrich yourself in the meteoric bull market since 2011, why should we listen to your trading advice now?

Bitter taste in your mouth after selling at $50? :(

Bitcoin can never replace fiat, and fiat is not relevant to Bitcoin. Apples and Oranges.

A valuable service? You don't provide any services you just spam forums with unsubstantiated bullshit, and you then demand compensation in the currency you claim is dead, regardless of if your "advice" loses people money or makes them money. You're a con man, and a piece of shit. You're not trying to help anyone and you're not fooling anyone. Notice how not one person is upset that you are claiming you're going to stop "warning us". Please, leave. Good riddance, no one likes you.

Liar. It won't be the last.

Anyway, what's his purpose?

This guy is falllling's twin brother waiting for a buy in opportunity.

You can tell he is just trolling because he won't directly answer..

Do you promise? :D

BTC is being very bearish? or the price of BTC in dollars? Careful not to mix the two up... ;)

The specific dollar values don't really make much difference to me. The overall price trend and broad order of magnitude price are interesting but only as part of the whole picture. There has been a lot of talk lately about BTC inflation and suppression of the price but its always been a very naive "this, so that" rationalisation.

There are a whole bunch of obvious factors being stated in isolation to make for a bearish case, but not whole lot of looking at what all those factors mean when viewed as a whole. I've not really got a full picture - not one worth starting a whole new thread about - but i've been thinking about it a lot lately, the slow periods are the best time to reflect away from the euphoria of the moon!

In summary, the all tim high in difficulty is a result of massive capex in mining equipment, capes that is looking for ROI. So we are seeing an all time high in downward pressure. That much has been stated and used to rationalise why bitcoin is doomed, because everyone will sell everything forever, and there is an unlimited supply of bitcoin to keep driving the price down...  ::)

Additionally, when talking about inflation people seem to thing it is driving the price down in and of itself (i.e. unlimited supply). They seem to overlook the fact that the selling pressure is largely a product of the massive capital investment  that has already happened. Mining has always produced X number of coins per day, but don't think we have ever seen a period where such a high percentage of those coins are being sold daily.

Again a naive conclusion here is that the price is dropping because 3600 x <price> = ~$1.5m of dollars must come into BTC every day to maintain equilibrium. If money doesn't come in price drops because of supply and demand, and of course everyone is selling and nobody is buying.

Except price is only declining slowly. So clearly their is deeper magic! Beyond the superficial scary price decline. There must be some large proportion of $$$ buying into bitcoin every day, because otherwise the fiat price would have totally collapsed.

Yet it hasn't.

So what we are looking at is that slightly less then <coins per day> * <current price> in dollars is being converted to bitcoin *every day*. Suddenly that argument that "bitcoin can't survive because it needs $1m dollars a day" becomes, OMG bitcoin is getting over a million dollars a day of investment.

Bearish? Really?

So what will happen is the price *will* keep sliding till we find equilibrium. Speculative price discovery at the moment is not about what miners will sell at, because they are *all* selling to recoup capex (and what happens when they don't?). It's about how much money is coming in daily vs how many BTC are mined daily. As the price per BTC declines, then less daily 'total investment' is required to maintain that price. So we will naturally find the bottom.

Like we found the bottom at ~$2 back in 2011. Which implies daily influx of around $10-15k (before the halving)
Like we found the bottom at ~$60 back in 2013. Which implies a daily influx of around $200k
Like we are finding the bottom now.

Once that bottom is found, things start to happen that mitigate all of the factors that drove the price down. Miners decide to cut their losses. Daily coins available shrinks. Price goes up. Less people sell because they think I might get more tomorrow...

The thing with price is, as you say, it doesn't really reflect on the real world nature of BTC itself. The price can fly and crash in the space of hours. In the real world the bullish people are adding value to the BTC ecosystem, however the 'IRL bearish' people don't really do anything to subtract value. So the BTC ecosystem value only goes up. Faster or slower depending on how en vogue it is at any given time. Mining doesn't 'crash' BTC startups don't spike and crash. Ecosystem just keeps growing slow. Daily investment in BTC just keeps slowly chugging along. The market price is just a function of how many BTC are being sold into this daily investment in BTC.

This is the fundamental foundation to the base price that I an countless others have postulated on. The massive spikes are what happens when things run away with themselves, when everyone starts holding for that better price tomorrow. That daily investment in BTC doesn't stop it just gets spent on whatever is available, at whatever price. The spikes are fun, but what they draw attention from is the base price. The true 'fundamental' value of bitcoin. What the 'bubbles' hide, is that this base price is what is growing - exponentially, following the s-curve. Fluctuations are just noise. We might hit the winklevoss $40k, or risto's $300k during one of these bubbles, and that too will be fun. If we do it like that though there will probably be a contraction due to things being ahead of themselves, because actually the true 'value' of bitcoin is its base value. In time, as has happened previously, the base price will catch up with and ultimately overtake each and every bubble before it.

The only exception is the final bubble. As has been suggested by many others before me, that final bubble will be the overshoot before the top of the s-curve.

I don't think that was this time, some might disagree. The burgeoning BTC ecosystem is my 'evidence' that we have a long way still to go.

Excellent rebuttal. There is far too much interest in the short term market movements of bitcoin.

This has got to be a joke now right? Fiat and reliable? Reliably dying sure (true for any fiat at any point in history). If you don't want crypto at least invest in something real, not monopoly bills.

At least fiat is backed by state sponsored terrorism
Bitcoin is not

You have no guarantee with cryptocurrencies

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252531.msg2767646#msg2767646

You're back :)

OP +1
PANIC IS AROUND THE CORNER. 100$ here we come. say hello to STAGNATION! All the cult-followers don't see it.

You also have no guarantees with fiat. Yes some guy claims it's guaranteed but that's not worth anything.

I find his "educational services" to be entertaining, in a clownish sort of way.

http://i664.photobucket.com/albums/vv10/JimboToronto/33.jpg (http://s664.photobucket.com/user/JimboToronto/media/33.jpg.html)

The difference being that if USD fails, US, as we know it, also fails.  Bigass problems, blood in the streets.
If BTC fails?  No one notices :D

I thought this was your last warning? Why do you keep creating new threads?

This time he promised

OMG, It's as if everything he says is a lie!

Well BTC and other coins might boom or burst, that's risk but I think no one can exactly tell when and will it going to happen to all.

What an advice. No idea about the US, but holding more than 100K Euro in a European account is an invitation to get Cyprused.

There we go, useless speculation again...

The biggest guarantee is the petro-dollar

bitcoin is backed by TOR black markets, as long as people buy drugs on the internet bitcoin will have value.
the USD is already dead
http://www.usdebtclock.org (http://www.usdebtclock.org)
the only way out is printing the dollar into hyperinflation.

You must be real rich now, if you had put your money where your mouth is and shorted bitcoins.

Leeeel this made me laugh a lot

Your guarantee is toilet paper?

I don't usually respond to trolls but since you're a senior member, I'll just say, ok, thanks but no thanks, good riddance,and we won't miss you. Now if you'll excuse me, I have some bitcoin buying to do while it's at sub $400

This response proves how ignorant some of you are, you actually think that the black markets are a negligible part of the economy. Literally billions of dollars go through those markets, and the amount of Internet based drug trade has only increased since the first Silk Road bust. I know someone of the dumber people think somehow the government has ways of monitoring and stopping these markets, but you're wrong. There have been more than 20 successful markets that started operation since the Silk Road was shut down, 3 have shut down, and none were because of being busted. The new Silk Road site is so successful they were able to pay back all the money that was seized during the original bust to the vendors and customers who's money was taken. They paid this back with profit from collecting transaction fees of less than a percent, so clearly they have hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions going on to be making that kind of money.

Here are some kinds who found a use for fiat money. Stacks of it make great building blocks. And they are guaranteed by the German government!

http://blogs.moundsparkacademy.org/worldhistory10/weimar2.jpg

Bitcoin can survive and thrive as long as people have faith in it. the massive price high of this year is only more proof of what faith can do!

As long as people attribute value to it - it will remain valuable.

It may not reach those highs again, or it may go higher if a major fiat based economy finally admits it can't go on with it's perpetual debt.

Thanks for your warning, but if you believe it cash out and walk away.... I have a feeling you will be keeping hold of some coin "just in case" ::)

I'm welcoming you back to the forum.  Was a bit worried for you after you vouched for Ken and disappeared for over a year.
How'd that whole Active Mining adventure work out 4 u?
Still keepin' in touch with Ken?

We've already established that bitcoin is pseudo-anonymous currency. Only a "dumb" person would use bitcoin to buy drugs or anything illegal online, since it can be traced back to them rather easily unless they're using VPNs or proxies, and even then, it's still possible. Worldwide, there are billions being funneled through black markets, but by and large it's done the same way it always has been. Call your guy on the phone, bring cash and make the exchange in person. Cash is much safer than a pseudo-anonymous, traceable digital currency.

the growth of TOR black markets proves you wrong.

TOR is only as secure as the exit nodes on the network. I assure you, the FBI and other three letter agencies are watching a lot of that traffic and arrest warrants are being written up. Not to mention, the obvious weak link in this entire online black market is not the payment protocol, but the physical delivery. You're giving authorities the address of your home, or at least the pick up location so they can set up a sting.

But this is what you're counting on for bitcoin to become a paradigm changer worldwide? OK, good luck with that.

If they start jailing small time consumers on any sort of scale we will see marijuana legalized within months.  Their interest is in finding the dealers, which people will stand for, preserving their drug war funding.

these markets have been operating successfully for years, if the government could do anything about them they would have done it already.
yes i am counting on it, illegal drugs are a hundreds billions of dollars industry, if the big drug cartels realize they can cut the middle guys and sell directly on TOR the demand for bitcoin will be huge.

Lol, just making polite conversation, you sure didn't post in AM threads since that warm endorsement.  Sorry I missed the 8 posts you made this year, I'll be more diligent in the future.
BTW, if you feel like sharing, whose alt are you?  Just between us?
Only no fibbing >:(

...@"TOR black market is srs bznz" crew:

Where are you guys getting all this funky and totally factual data?  Some rly srs d00d from the intertubes?

Paypal and Lawsky == drugs n' black markets. Makes sense.

from the UN
http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2005/06/30/un_report_puts_worlds_illicit_drug_trade_at_estimated_321b/ (http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2005/06/30/un_report_puts_worlds_illicit_drug_trade_at_estimated_321b/)

321 billion and that's from 2005 so that's in 2005 USD purchasing power.

You seem to be very ignorant about the workings of the TCP/IP protocol and network monitoring capabilities. The government and law enforcement agencies do in fact have the resources available to monitor encrypted traffic over the Internet, and with these tools and other traditional methods, they do not have much trouble bringing down the black market sites, much like they did with Silk Road.

Will new ones crop up to replace them? Yes, of course. But people are busted for online drug transactions on a regular basis, although much of it is not well publicized, which somehow leads you to the conclusion that users have impunity against law enforcemement. The introduction of bitcoin makes little difference, since providing your physical address is the weak link. If drug cartels could let you pay with bitcoin, that went through a complex tumbler, and then they could beam the drugs to you Star Trek style, then maybe you'd have something. Until then, you're dreaming.

so the all mighty government has all these powers to monitor the entire internet and yet the black markets continue to thrive more than ever.
silkroad was down for maybe a week and then went right back to business, if that's the best the government can do then i have no doubt the black markets will continue to grow.

i don't know what the government is doing but there are more drug listings on the TOR black markets than ever before, clearly the government is failing.

My special friend, of course the drug trade is srs bznz, but don't confuse the real drug trade with the neckbeards trading on TOR.

http://s17.postimg.org/4ltin33b3/twi.gif

They can't just walk in and shut a place down, they need to follow due process and obtain court orders before that can happen. You see that a silk road replacement rises without being immediately taken down, and from that you draw the conclusion that the online black market is thriving and invincible? There's a lot of money to be made by these site operators, which drive them to take up the business, and if they remain small, they might be able to fly under the radar for some time. But I would warn you, if you're doing any business with these markets or considering it, think carefully. You and every other user will be monitored. and you're putting yourself at great risk.

LOG chart trend line tells me everything :
https://i.imgur.com/2rUlT8n.jpg

And the forecast:
1 month = 300-400 $
1 year = 1,300 - $2,000 $
2 years = 7,000- 9,000 $
3 years = 30,000- 50,000 $
5 years = 300,000 - 600,000 $
30 years =  (price is irrelevant , fiat becomes minor part of world economy)
60-80 years  =  (FIAT no longer exists)

its been a year since silkroad was reopened, plenty of time to follow due process (as if anyone in the US still cares about that), if its still operating its because the government can't do anything to stop it.

False.
 
BTC is decently anonymous for its purpose in online black markets.
There are pretty easy money laundering techniques (buy altcoins in a BTC-E account through Tor, send the altcoins in another BTC-E account through Tor, exchange them for BTC, cash the BTC at your exchange, two different blockchains, unlinkable, untracable).
Furthermore, there are already services (DarkWallet) or altcoins being developed with this purpose in mind.

Then, there are obvious HUGE advantages (both for the vendor and for the consumer) in using an online black market than the old fashioned "call your guy, make the deal" way if you're not dumb enough to see that.

I don't agree with what Chuckee said though, I'm just saying that what you said is false.


DISCLAIMER: I'm not encouraging anybody to engage in illegal activities, just stating the obvious facts.

What is so funny? US-Dollar will be like Zimbabwe Dollar then:


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/Zimbabwe_$100_trillion_2009_Obverse.jpg

http://fjrcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/i-shall-say-this-only-once.jpg

Bitcoin will go up!!!

Anyway, some of you guys have to drop the r(etard)/bitcoin "BTC is amazing and fiat is evil" ideas.

BTC is safer than fiat? are you out of your goddamn minds?
If you had to choose to put all your money in BTC or to hold only fiat what would you do?

Depends on your situation.
If you are a drug dealer YES it is. A bank or govenment can block your account.
If you are a dumb f00k NO because you will lose your wallet or do something st00pid.

Driving a car is also a potential deadly activity. People will get used to it.

I am 100% in, good sir. Except for a small amount put towards beer money. 99.9% to be precise then.

Ok, some dudes here might spit out some random numbers and glorify Silk Road and all, but your idea of Tor black markets as some joke by a bunch of crackheads on the internets is made up either.

You have some major balls then. For real.

Bitcoin is still nothing compared to what it should become. It's just a tiny fraction of world economy, yet with superior properties over any currency or gold. Don't listen to troll.

This is the truth.  I don't think that every property of BTC is superior, but it has enough superior and unique elements that means it has potential for much, much, much more.

Need more warnings!

I'm just laughing @ what Robert Paulson thought the volume of those markets was.

321 Billion dollars :D  Can you imagine?

You will keep getting them, :)

This is hilarious. He writes something down and interprets it as he pleases months down the line.

PS - YOU ARE ALL FUCKED.

See you in a few days, months, or years.. when my "prediction" comes true.

i never said tor black markets currently have that kind of volume, that's the volume of the whole industry.

This bankster's gerbil wants you all in fiat! Did you hear that? Fiat is great? Unbacked paper liabilities dispersed by bankrupt govts!

Your final warning? Your only motive is to keep humanity enslaved so you can collect a paycheck from your demonic masters.

I knew you were a paid bankster troll now we finally see once and for all why xiaoxiao cares so much that he spends his days on BTT trying to save humanity from freedom!

I'll give you the real warning...when the fed  finally increases interest rates next year, fiat is GAME OVER globally. Derivatives, equities, bonds...all go KABOOM.

Fiat....paper debt instruments owed back to the central banksters plus interest.

Xiaoxiao....paid troll for the paper casino debt slavery system!!!

And it will never be the last time I see this kind of warning

The Op should post his btc address. Even if we all are a bunch of ungrateful people and won't pay nothing for his warnings, at least maybe some of us we'll pay him to stop posting them.

The reasons he states for his opinion are so weak (I'm avoiding to use a stronger term) that it doesn't deserve any further comment.

Warning not heeded.  :)

No I agree with almost all of you guys in here.  The problem is that bitcoin will the future, maybe, in like 300 years, that is if people haven't forgotten about it.

Yep, you knew. You were here in 2011. You made a handful of posts and then disappeared for 2 and a half years, coming back when it bubbled in Dec 2013.

You probably lost a lot of money just like anyone else who keeps buying as the price ONLY drops down lower & lower

No money lost as I haven't sold, sorry fallling.

In fact I will continue to buy, getting more aggressive the lower the price descends. Could I have a few more coins? Sure. But I have a full time job in the real world which is letting me buy at least  ten coins or so a month at these prices so its no big deal. Most traders lose because like you they think they can time the market. When prices rise I will be happy. I can afford to wait til the next halving and I have a nice stash of fiat waiting should we unexpectedly flash crash lower by some heavy handed manipulation.

Not everyone here is a trader. Some of us are speculating by holding, sorry!

What you're saying makes sense & is true for many companies & stocks but this is a huge pump and dump from the start so consider your money gone as you keep buying what the miners are dumping to anyone who wants coins at ANY price

You might be right and if so I will brush myself off and laugh about it. If I am right then you are a new Edward50 and I will be very happy indeed next year.

Detailed description of my revolutionary new market strategy, 100% scientifically guaranteed never to lose money:

1.  Buy.
2.  Never sell.
3.  ? ? ?
4.  Profit!

Why do people waste their time posting threads like these. Also, every time they post it is supposedly the last time they will warn you. Thanks for warning(LAST TIME!!!!)

Technically true!

Equivalent to throwing coins into a well. :)

Physical coins might be worth more soon at this rate!

Buy now or high chances to miss the boat.

Buy now & watch your account go lower everyday!  :'(

slow and steady is the way to go.  haven't you heard to fable of tortoise and hare?

1000% increase followed 900% decrease < simple 50% steady increase

Wow! 900% decrease? To below zero?

http://iconsoffright.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Below_Zero_DVD.jpg

At least you can sell physical metal coins for scrap if they become worthless, and you can wipe your arse on bank notes if they become worthless. You can't use bitcoins for anything if they become worthless.

Good job neither you or the previous three posters have any then!

China agrees.

http://s24.postimg.org/iv28lgs79/bitcoin.jpg

Correct, I have sold all my BTC & continue to sell everything I mine!!! Just like all the whales & smart money are doing... Go get sucked into the bull trap yourself!

Don't be silly fallllling you don't even mine btc. That requires resources other than an internet connection and questionable English language skills.

Falling?? Dude I've been running a 1.2TH/s machine, that I bought secondhand, for a while now....... Selling every piece of coin I make & buying back BTC at flash crashes just to dump it again when you fools buy it for more $! I already made return on my investment since I got my machine for cheap. Im not one of those fools spending $3-5k on a pre order of machines. Bitcoin community is full of fools that get scammed and washed around easy because you're all just trying to get rich quick! Thanks for denying I even mine LOL It's like you claiming BTC will be $100,000 soon LMFAO You have no idea wtf you are talking about, go start a business or "digital currency" of your own so you can actually make real money instead of being a sheep!

MOST OF YOU HERE ARE SHEEP. FOLLOW THE HERD, NERDS!!!

You come across very badly with this and the majority of your posts. Telling others what to do, screeching abuse, it's pretty juvenile stuff.

I would say holding a speculative position in btc is far far removed from being a sheep in the herd, even now in late 2014. I know lots of professionals in their thirties and none hold bitcoin, most barely recognise the word.

This forum and reddit are a bit of an echo chamber. There was a thread suggesting btc has reached peak investment potential which could not be farther from the truth.

Bitcoin in my mind is a binary assymetric bet. If it goes to zero then I lose a small percentage of my portfolio and my brothers will kid me about it for a year or two. If it pays off then it will be fantastic for me, but also more importantly for the world in general.

You can try and get rich quick thinking the rest of us are fools. But perhaps we are not all as foolish as you think  ;)

Offensive or not, buying at flash crashes and selling on bounces is a good way to earn more bitcoins. If you have the time to monitor the market enough for it, that is.

It is risky, but there's no profit without risk!

I hope this is the last time you're gunna post here.

Keep up the good work. Don't let the haters get to you, haters gonna hate.

The ticker price clearly shows who was right and who was wrong.

Perhaps you are... I don't tell others what to do! You guys can buy all the BTC that all major miners are dumping, I actually think it's pretty cool right around $400 is enough mining profit for them (approx $1.8m per day) so why not. You thinking of BTC as a bet is what is destroying this community! If it doesn't go to zero & ends up rising up back to $1,000... how much are you really making??? You will double up basically... So your couple grand is now what 5k? You'll basically make nothing but you're risking a lot especially if it goes to zero. So is all that risk really worth the slight possibility of a double up flip??? Myself and many others included do this every day in the stock market. So why waste 10yrs to do that?? or even 2yrs since that's when the rewards half and you guys claim BTC will blow up...

Is it really worth all of that?

the picture below was gordon gekko.  and it was in quotes.  but yeah, you don't seem so bright.

No you are right I will sell immediately..not.

Who mentioned doubling up? I suggest you look back through btc annual price performance.

I suggest you look at the charts & bitcoins performance all year. Look at the order book! Then watch 100+BTC blocks get dumped as "instant" orders... not even in the books

Yeeah right. OP, you're the next guy in my ignore list. Sorry.

Put it this way, you guys are on thin ice right now.  One more down phase for my predictions to be fullfilled in like the next 12 hours.  I didn't even know it was going to happen so soon.

So is this a final, final warning?

Ok seriously, how do you not understand no one cares what you think? Find a new hobby besides being an annoying douchebag on the Internet.

The American constitution is no guarantee

So was that not you telling everyone who wouldn't sell they're sheep and should follow the herd? Oh it was you...imagine that...

Fiat is only guaranteed by people, nothing else. Fiat have a value only because people believe it has a value. When the people no longer believe in it, it will have no value. That is why banks and governments are trying so hard to kill Bitcoin. For when the people start to realized the paper money they're holding is only worth as much as what they think it to be, not the number printed on it, not how much of it was issued, then that would be the end of it. While governments can control their people's thinking and their printed out-of-thin-air fiats, they cannot control Bitcoin. And that's the ultimate fear of governments around the world, for power is nothing without control.

FTFY.
Also works with gold.

Well touché. But you're wrong, it's different. Here's why: for fiat, say a 1 dollar note is worth 1 dollar. for Bitcoin, one btc can worth 100, 1, 1000, 1000000 dollars. It's not up to me to think how much a btc is worth and that's how much it's worth. With fiat, if I have a one dollar note, I know it's worth one dollar and anyone else I trade that one dollar note to knows it's worth one dollar. And that one dollar note is worth one dollar because it's printed to be a one dollar note, decided by the government. Capisce?

Not following you at all.  Sure, one dollar is always worth one dollar--not open for interpretation.  Are you now saying that fiat is not "only worth as much as what they think it to be"?

Just take the zimbabwean dollar crisis. The people have no trust in their own currency anymore, no matter how the government tried printing and telling them look, this zimbabwean dollar note is worth this much. The people just don't think it's worth as much, cause nobody else thinks it's worth as much, so there's no value at all, even though it's officially money

can you eat dollars?
the only thing that matters is how many goods can a dollar buy, and the answer is less and less every year.

At least you can buy food with dollars & gold... At the current moment you can't even buy anything worth anything with bitcoin! Even food is a hassle to buy with BTC. It needs to get easier! MUCH EASIER!!! Before the masses start to use bitcoin! GLTA!

Can you eat BTC?
*More importantly, does ur mom know ur on the interweb?

Wait, are we switching topics?
My point is simple:  BTC is only worth as much as people think it is--no different from fiat.
*Other than most stores give you a blank look when you ask to pay with it.

I didn't quite get what you said. If you turn 2k into 5k, i.e., if you gain 3k, its nothing... but if you lose 2k you lose everything?? Help me out. Maybe I missed something here.

the point is that bitcoin will maintain its purchasing power just like gold did simply because it can't be printed.
the USD is a bunch of paper the bankers print all day long, no paper money ever survived in history.

The point is both gold and Bitcoin lost purchasing power this year, Bitcoin spectacularly.  My shitcoin is an exact clone of bitcoin.  It also can't be "printed all day long." How much should I put you down for?

Re. "no paper money ever survived...":  No digital currency ever survived in history.  How old are you?

I wouldn't say "simply because it can't be printed", but a combination of the fact that it can't be printed AND the fact that's incredibly useful for reducing the friction of exchange. That's what a good money does: makes it easier for people to transact. Ultimately, bitcoin may be the best money system humanity has ever had, because its core properties (*one* of which is scarcity) all contribute to this friction reduction.

When it comes down to it, all money is just an accounting system. Be it wampum, gold coins, paper dollars, or bank account balances, these are all tools for keeping track of who has given value to who. Sound familiar? They're all mechanisms for keeping track of a ledger, either literally (bank account balances) or abstractly (people holding gold). Note that Narayana Kocherlakota at the Minneapolis Fed branch wrote a paper to this effect in 1996, concluding that good money is just a subclass of this societal memory function, and that a good memory tool is therefore a superset of money: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr218.pdf (pdf warning). Academics have more recently applied this idea to bitcoin: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2275730

The bitcoin blockchain *is* the theoretically ideal global accounting ledger. Compared to every other money system we know, it provides that function with less friction (and note that supply-uncertainty can be considered friction since it distorts people's natural allocation decisions). The ledger is global, nearly free and instant to use, open, transparent, authoritative, always available, and uncensorable. It doesn't require the hassle of moving around physical objects to secure space in the ledger, and the validity of entries in the ledger is globally *credible* (no one can mess with it, and everybody knows that). If you study the tools/technology humanity has historically used for money, you should realize just how much of an ideal advance on the technology of money and societal recordkeeping/accounting bitcoin represents. This is why some have the audacity to claim that bitcoin will, eventually, replace gold and/or fiat.


tldr:
For those who don't like reading, you can watch Wences Casares explain this all very well in 31 minutes: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NERAN-89j8M

nothing keeps purchasing power exactly flat all the time, the gold the romans used 2000 years ago still buys products today.
bitcoin is only 5 years old it will pick up exchange volume and will be less volatile and much much more expensive in the future.
you're shitcoin is not a clone of bitcoin, for it to be a clone of bitcoin it needs to be as accepted by merchants and have the same hashing power securing it.
digital currencies (that is crypto currencies) only exist for 5 years, since 2009 they have exploded in value, and that's without anyone with a gun forcing people to accept it, the free market chose bitcoin as money.

the dollar lost 90% of its purchasing power since 1913 and in the last 5 years it has been printed to oblivion, it is clear it will fail the same way as all the other paper currencies have failed in human history,
but hey, don't worry, im sure its different this time...

@Melbustus:
You're talking about an improvement on gold, not fiat.  Controlling the money supply is a useful property of fiat, a tool not available with Bitcoin.
TL;DR:  Deflation is not "a good thing."  See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

At this point, Bitcoin's inflation rate is way higher than USD--that's what mined coin is.  Bitcoin supply will continue to inflate throughout our lifetime.
As was pointed out by Satoshi, the price of Bitcoin tends to the cost of mining it (and vice versa).  In other words, the price of producing one bitcoin tends to the cost of producing it.  This means that if Bitcoin ever becomes substantially more valuable, the value dumped into mining it will proportionally increase.  Do you think that ~10% of the world's wealth is going into maintaining today's fiat "ledger" every year?

Another chunk of terrible logic.
Yes, the dollar buys less than it did in 1913.
To compensate for that, the average income has risen from $740 per year.
Things I have to explain...

controlling the money supply is just a nice way of saying the banks get to print money and loan it with interest, it is not a useful property, it is a fraud and theft.
deflation is not good? do you like paying high prices? technology improves productivity all the time why is it bad that prices come down, would you be happy if cellphones still cost the same as a car?

Bitcoin's monetary inflation rate is higher than USD's but the amount of goods and services sold for bitcoin grows much faster than the inflation rate and so purchasing power increases.
you are ignoring the fact that the mining reward is halved every 4 years, even if bitcoin doubles its value every 4 years the miners still get the same purchasing power (because they get less bitcoins)

what about people's savings? they lost 90% of their purchasing power.
the average income did not rise as fast as inflation, not nominally and sure as hell not after taxes.

Money is not mattress stuffing.  You want savings, by bonds or invest.  Or simply buy stuff that has real value.

Anyhow, this is all purely academic.  If you have "invested" in BTC this year, you have fared substantially worse than the rubes who kept their savings in USD.
Way worse.

bonds are a loan and like any loan carries a counter party risk, investing also carries a risk.
buying real stuff that can't just be diluted out of thin air is good for saving.
how about we just make that money instead of some papers? that way whenever i don't want to invest and just want to save my purchasing power for later use i can just hold my money without having my purchasing power arbitrarily robbed by a bank.
something like i don't know... gold?

bitcoin had one bad year after four years of insane returns, nothing always goes up.

Modern money is an awful long-term store of value, that's how and why it works.
I know the anal retentive in you is jonesing to hoard stuff, but hoarding money is not only amoral, it's [fortunately] also stupid.
As stupid as hoarding steaks or delicious caek--why not complain about that?

*You're not being "robbed by a bank," unless you mean Bitcoin banks like Neo Bee etc., etc., in which case: I told you you would be.

go NotLambchop, go, sell all your coins.

^
Patience.  There's plenty of play left here.

be moral and clever.

so are we fucked or what?  :'(

I do not know if you are shorting, but It is time to buy and hold.

if money was not created out of thin air like it is today,
why would hoarding (saving) it be stupid, suppose i want to buy something expensive, whats wrong with saving my money for a few years until i can buy it.
what if i want to save for retirement but i want to take as little risk as possible and so would prefer not to invest or loan my money but just hoard (save) it until i retire, why is that stupid and who are you or anyone else to dictate to people what risks they should take with their money.

every time a bank grants a loan it creates money out of thin air and loans it with interest to someone, that new money dilutes the purchasing power of everyone else.
by doing that the bank essentially robbed the rest of the population of its purchasing power, the result is no different than robbing everyone at the point of a gun out of a fraction of their money.

I explain exactly what to expect when "investing" in Bitcoin.  I don't [intentionally] hold anything back.
After that, it would be hypocritical of me to hold back and not to deliver on my promise, no?

this myth again  :D

FTFY

Modern money = BTC

Fiat is so 2001

 ::)

take a minute to watch this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndshbH3qZ6Y

Huffed Mop & Glo instead of getting brainwashed in school, huh?
Ain't no foolin' a bright feller like you! ::)

please please, entertain me with your deflation is bad theory and how it applies to Bitcoin

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/12/23/fear-not-deflation/
http://mises.org/daily/3231

only when you have read these will we be able to discuss the subject on equal terms, sheep.

It is not my theory, it is a theory agreed upon by the majority of grownups.
As much as the egalitarian in me wishes to provide you with the education you so clearly lack, the Good Book warns me about casting my pearls before swine.
I'll compromise with a quote from wikip:

"Economists generally believe that deflation is a problem in a modern economy because it increases the real value of debt, and may aggravate recessions and lead to a deflationary spiral."  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

Now go and play.

Lol @ mises.org :D  That's like learning history from stormfront.org :D

http://s13.postimg.org/6gl8ynvx3/c94d5ff9ca9b.jpg

Wrong, it is the theory agreed upon by neo-Keynesians working hand in hand with central banks.

Your education is flawed. You are blinded with ego and refuse to even consider your mistake.

I challenge you to read the paper linked at the mises website and refute anything said in there.

How ironic of you to dismiss the mises website and quote the platitudes of wikipedia.

You can do better than that I'm sure.

Well your sources are top notch. I also hate it when I deficit spend my Bitcoins, I can completely imagine how all my bitcoin debt could collapse the economy under the weight of deflation...

logic, he does not speak it

My dear lyth0s!  You misunderstand my role in this thread.  I'm here to edify, not to defend a doctorate.  The link provided is an introductory economics text for my wayward young charge, brg444.
Not a citation.

Enjoy your evening.

It is unfortunate "introduction to economics" is a far as you bothered reading

Impressionable children watching "Money As Debt" on YouTube and suddenly their latent daddy issues galvanize into this wacky sillyness :D

I take it you are unable to defend your position.

Fair enough.

I'm talking about an improvement on both. I understand full well that the branch of monetary economics most popular with governments over the past 100yrs or so has considered an elastic money supply to be beneficial. I also understand why in some depth (econ degree (which should make me naturally hate bitcoin, right?)). The math is indeed enticing, and does work in constrained environments. If central banks (ie, the handful of people running them) always operated with absolute perfection, in near-ideal academic circumstances, there'd be a strong argument for that being the better path (and there would still be strong counterarguments).

But there are baser problems. CBs don't react fast enough, don't have perfect information, are influenced by politics whether they're officially "independent" or not, often have multiple competing mandates, and operate in a literally chaotic mathematical system *as if* the system they're actually manipulating is fully describable by a simple linear relationship. So, arguably, the effect is that while they may smooth medium-term business cycles in non-outlier cases, they create far bigger instability, which, while appearing less often than the natural ups and downs of the business cycle (also debatable), have potentially high-impact outcomes that could lead to longer-term systemic problems, and in the worst case, geopolitical issues; ie, war.

The knee-jerk "deflation is bad crowd" (thanks for the wikipedia link, how helpful) often doesn't realize that their arguments often hinge on an underlying assumption that the *overall* *longrun* money supply dynamics have an inflationary bias, and are not known to, or predictable by, all economic participants. Thus, when some shock *does* create a deflationary moment, it gets exacerbated by economic actors who freak out because they (correctly) realize that they should take this brief opportunity to hoard. IFF the money supply dynamics were *perfectly* known to all economic participants, inflationary, deflationary, whatever - just known - everyone would be able to allocate against that backdrop, and the "what if" feedback loop wouldn't form with such ferocity. It's the same equation, where you put the elasticity doesn't matter in the long-run. Thus, the other considerations above should be given more weight.



Mostly the vice-versa part, but moving on...



The amount spent on mining will ultimately be slightly less than the amount of transaction fees generated by the network. If bitcoin becomes a high-volume system (see Gavin's latest scalability roadmap), transaction fees can stay low relative to transaction size and still keep the network secure. The cost spent on mining would be completely acceptable and rational.

+1

Sure, this argument has been presented, on this very forum, many times.  Mostly without the "I haz a degree" tacked on for emphasis.  The onus of proof is usually on the one cutting against the grain, breaking with the conventional wisdom.  No proof was ever offered.


I'm not talking about what will happen "ultimately."  Ultimately the universe will die, I'm interested with what happens in the interim.
What would happen if Bitcoin did become a world currency in our lifetime?  Right now, we're generating around 10% of all BTC every year.  Forgetting for a moment that this makes Bitcoin the most inflationary of currencies, imagine 10% of the world's total wealth being dumped into BTC mining!  Literally, willingly destroyed.  Just to keep, as you put it, "a ledger."

And no, you can not keep the network secure with "relatively low transaction fees."  What does "relatively small" even mean?  The threat to the network doesn't diminish once the block rewards are smaller.  On the contrary, the threat will grow with BTC market cap.  Mining today is done for rewards, not tx fees.  The hashrate is still growing.
What do you suppose will happen to all this hashpower once block rewards vanish?

*edited.

when block rewards vanish it will be year 2140.

at this point either BTC is dead or has taken over the world.

considering the latter alternative I would bet on transactions fees being enough to substain the mining network

It's holding strong above $340, I think we are safe now

Until that happy day, let's stop it with "Bitcoin is deflationary" bullshit.  At the current rate of ~10%, it's quite the opposite :D

@romerun:  You've been safe all the way down from 1k.

Right now there is 3600 bitcoins created a day, which sounds freaking HUGE. But then when you take into consideration that the US debt increases by about 2.5 BILLION dollars a day...suddenly the bitcoin world seems to be a lesser evil. Yes there is difference in percentage of total market cap that is being created per day, but at least we all know that the percentage of new bitcoins / market cap WILL decrease over time. As for the USD the amount of new debt per day will likely increase in relation to the total USD "market cap".

Also keep in mind that every year the purchasing power of bitcoin is going up, while the purchasing power of the USD decreases by 2-9% depending on who's inflation statistic you want to use.


Was $1000/coin last year a huge bubble? You bet. I'm personally pretty comfortable knowing that my $100 bitcoin last year is now worth $300 in purchasing power and I expect it to be even higher next year as the USD continues to devaluate as most countries are purposely attempting to weaken their own currency to encourage exports.

Bitcoin should be 5000 USD by next year @ this time.

quote for reminding  ::)

HA HA HA. Just seen this.

Final warning folks, say good night to any chance of $100 orders getting filled.

These fail speculations always fail

$100 in short term probably won't happen as fast as we thought... But please don't let these "paint job" traders fool you into painting this chart to look like strength. There will be a correction back to the mean, nobody knows when, but to say HAHA everytime it goes up for a few days it just shows you have no patience & will probably be the first one to sell on the way down

I think Xiaoxiao abandoned his own thread.

Why wouldn't he... everyone just bashes anyone who doesn't say BUY BUY BUY  :'(

He will be back once the btc price starts going down again.  ;D

I doubt it... this community doesn't discuss what price it will fall too! They just say buy buy buy , perma bull BS!  :'(

He is clearly gone because the price is going up. As are most of the bear-trolls. Just like every time the price goes up. Now the perma-bulls take over and make equally silly predictions.

Much lower than $340 would be Fucked up for bitcoin, plan on visiting $300s at some point after that, but my money is all-in for this Day TODAY....

you can knock me down and watch me bleed, but you can't keep no chains on me ~ BTC

We should be over $400 soon and that will be the new floor.

Before you go Xiaoxiao, I need your BTC, I have Zimbawe's dollar and argentinian peso but also United States dollar so if you don't like anymore your virtual coins please send me.

 ;D ;D

I think I can outbid. If I remember right, faiili.. sorry Xiaoxiao said bitcoin will be worth 10 dollars soon. I'm willing to buy them for 11 :D
This is your chanse to make some proffit faii.. I mean Xiaoxiao

i don't understand why you think this...

Prediction: $200 Bitcoin soon

I think BTC is going to hit $350 again in near future, there are projections all over r/bitcoin, people are being instructed to dump and buy back at that price or even lower

yeah, good thing r/bitcoin doesn't hold a monopoly over the economy

bulls did not heed to my final warning, now they are hamburger patties.

Yeah people get into silver and gold and buy some land and real estate, (wink wink), and yeah put some money in the bank and get 2.5% per year interest if you're lucky (and then the bank goes bust:). No investment is bulletproof.

The ones who bragged about having balls enough to hodl...

http://s28.postimg.org/ttxuqs519/Capture.jpg

Either my balls are big enough or I am not over invested. Or maybe both? Who knows?

If I had time to day trading I would because there's profit to be made on these swings. But sadly I don't have time for that. So I'm in for the long run instead.

What is happening is that the price is stabilizing and it's a good thing for BTC. No doomsday scenarios buddy.

We are just hoping this failed prediction will really, truly, finally be his last warning.

there is no such thing as 'stabilizing' in bitcoin markets  ::)

Things seem very unstable when the price is repeatedly bouncing up by $50, then down by $50 for a month. But when viewed on a graph a year later it looks like the price was stable for a month because all you see is  flatish line with a few tiny wiggles in. I suppose it all depends on the perspective you are viewing it from.